would you believe that stupid dq in the first leg of the p/6 yesterday cost me the bet. it "only" paid 10k, so i won't lose too much sleep, but that was a bogus dq. here's my take on saturdy, pre-scratches.
r1: el amuleto. don't think this race is overly-attractive from a value standpoint and the only reason i mention it here is b/c of jekyll and hyde. this guy was running numbers in the 90's at hollywood park and now seems to falling off a cliff for truman. do you give him the benefit of the doubt because it's del mar and the trainer and owner want to see him run and win, or do you go with a class raise for the always dangerous darrel vienna. i choose the latter and will play el amuleto on the re-claim (vienna plunked down his own money for this guy) at anything better than 3/1.
r4: kate 'n amy. i don't know much, but i do know this, clever miss caper, the likely favorite is going the wrong way. she has not looked enthusiastic of late and i will back a shrper rival, even though it's been seven months since she won at the 12.5k level.
r5: marshall rooster. golden arrow is the one to beat, but marshall rooster should get the pace he needs to make his presence felt in this his second start off the bench for craig dollase. 'rooster should have commanders flag, golden arrow, and mcdab all forcing a quick pace and will have to swing out in the lane when they turn for home. i loved him last time at 12/1 on the morning line; well, so did someone else as he got pounded to 9/2. today he's 3/1 on the m/l; anything in that range is a play for me. if he gets bet down to 5/2 or worse, i'll pass b/c his running style makes it difficult for him to get up if he doesn't get the pace and find a clear lane turning for home.
r6: disturbingthepeace. this is a great renewal of the big crosby. my favorite horse, the wicked north, won this race ten years ago, defeating then defending BC Sprint champion, Thirty Slews in a thriller. this year's renewal comes up fairly tough, but the pace isn't all that drmatic. avanzado and giovanetti both have early gas, but i don't see a four horse duel on the front end (that said, giovanetti may throw down a 43 and change half). i will look for a horse that doesn't have to come from too far out of it. i'd back capt. squire, but i think his price will stink and beau's town seems just a cut below these for the very shrewd cole norman barn, bluesthestandard never struck me as a G2 type at 6fs, and kona gold is, well, just old. he's beaten me before, and hell, he might beat me again, but i'm playing against the old man today. disturbingthepeace won this race last year and looks to be rounding backinto form for vienna, who takes the blinkers off here. i'm hoping espinoza can get him to sit about 3-4 lengths off the pace and make a run down on the inside turning for home. at 6/1 or so, he's great value.
r7: nose the trade. when in doubt, back frankel. seriously though, this race is loaded with plodder types and is begging to be won on the front end. the race pace gives bonus pay day a look, as well as proctor's horse, consistency, but i think solis is going to put nose the trade into the race earlier than he's been in his first two u.s. starts. moreover, i think we'll still get a price in here, as we have a belmont stakes winner, sarava, and crafty ct, who should also be near the pace on the stretch out. one of these days, jimmy z. is going to get his act together and win a race at a huge price. i doubt today's the day, but this long fused son of fly so free has a ton of ability. just one to keep an eye on if he ship somewhere in a weak G3 race.
r8: tates creek. i love golden apples. she's won me a ton of money and owes me nothing. however, tates creek is a total standout in here. she's undefeated at the distance, loves del mar and likes to lay closer to the pace, which automatically gives her a huge advantage over dublino, megahertz, golden apples and magic mission. 'apples, my sentimental choice, is coming off a seven month layoff and probably needs a race or two to get going and while i'll be tempted as hell to play her at 3/1, tates creek should win this race.
r10: cool friday. let's end the day with a flyer. 'friday ship in from yavapai and gets mick ruis (perhaps i'm playing him b/c of the screw job he got yesterday by dmr stewards). this race comes up light for the bottom level claimers and maybe he can run to that 78 beyer last november. the real asset is trainer jeff mullins, who continues to fire bullets and i think we'll get better than the 8/1 morning line.
good luck everyone.
r1: el amuleto. don't think this race is overly-attractive from a value standpoint and the only reason i mention it here is b/c of jekyll and hyde. this guy was running numbers in the 90's at hollywood park and now seems to falling off a cliff for truman. do you give him the benefit of the doubt because it's del mar and the trainer and owner want to see him run and win, or do you go with a class raise for the always dangerous darrel vienna. i choose the latter and will play el amuleto on the re-claim (vienna plunked down his own money for this guy) at anything better than 3/1.
r4: kate 'n amy. i don't know much, but i do know this, clever miss caper, the likely favorite is going the wrong way. she has not looked enthusiastic of late and i will back a shrper rival, even though it's been seven months since she won at the 12.5k level.
r5: marshall rooster. golden arrow is the one to beat, but marshall rooster should get the pace he needs to make his presence felt in this his second start off the bench for craig dollase. 'rooster should have commanders flag, golden arrow, and mcdab all forcing a quick pace and will have to swing out in the lane when they turn for home. i loved him last time at 12/1 on the morning line; well, so did someone else as he got pounded to 9/2. today he's 3/1 on the m/l; anything in that range is a play for me. if he gets bet down to 5/2 or worse, i'll pass b/c his running style makes it difficult for him to get up if he doesn't get the pace and find a clear lane turning for home.
r6: disturbingthepeace. this is a great renewal of the big crosby. my favorite horse, the wicked north, won this race ten years ago, defeating then defending BC Sprint champion, Thirty Slews in a thriller. this year's renewal comes up fairly tough, but the pace isn't all that drmatic. avanzado and giovanetti both have early gas, but i don't see a four horse duel on the front end (that said, giovanetti may throw down a 43 and change half). i will look for a horse that doesn't have to come from too far out of it. i'd back capt. squire, but i think his price will stink and beau's town seems just a cut below these for the very shrewd cole norman barn, bluesthestandard never struck me as a G2 type at 6fs, and kona gold is, well, just old. he's beaten me before, and hell, he might beat me again, but i'm playing against the old man today. disturbingthepeace won this race last year and looks to be rounding backinto form for vienna, who takes the blinkers off here. i'm hoping espinoza can get him to sit about 3-4 lengths off the pace and make a run down on the inside turning for home. at 6/1 or so, he's great value.
r7: nose the trade. when in doubt, back frankel. seriously though, this race is loaded with plodder types and is begging to be won on the front end. the race pace gives bonus pay day a look, as well as proctor's horse, consistency, but i think solis is going to put nose the trade into the race earlier than he's been in his first two u.s. starts. moreover, i think we'll still get a price in here, as we have a belmont stakes winner, sarava, and crafty ct, who should also be near the pace on the stretch out. one of these days, jimmy z. is going to get his act together and win a race at a huge price. i doubt today's the day, but this long fused son of fly so free has a ton of ability. just one to keep an eye on if he ship somewhere in a weak G3 race.
r8: tates creek. i love golden apples. she's won me a ton of money and owes me nothing. however, tates creek is a total standout in here. she's undefeated at the distance, loves del mar and likes to lay closer to the pace, which automatically gives her a huge advantage over dublino, megahertz, golden apples and magic mission. 'apples, my sentimental choice, is coming off a seven month layoff and probably needs a race or two to get going and while i'll be tempted as hell to play her at 3/1, tates creek should win this race.
r10: cool friday. let's end the day with a flyer. 'friday ship in from yavapai and gets mick ruis (perhaps i'm playing him b/c of the screw job he got yesterday by dmr stewards). this race comes up light for the bottom level claimers and maybe he can run to that 78 beyer last november. the real asset is trainer jeff mullins, who continues to fire bullets and i think we'll get better than the 8/1 morning line.
good luck everyone.
