danlin Tennis January 07

[danlin]

AO, 2nd round:

Djoko + Safin @1,32 8/10

Udomchoke @3,21 2/10 (Ferrero with 5 first-round losses in a row before the AO)

Marc Gicquel @11 0.5/10 (why not? Roddick does never well down under, Marc Gicquel with a good performance at the end of 2006)

ToJo @3.45 1/10 ... going with the former Champion

Melzer @3.25 2/10 ... h2h 4-2 for Melzer, who should be the better hard-court-player
4 dogs tomorrow ... :scared:

Lets make some cash! :howdy:

 

[danlin]

Djoko + Safin @1,32 8/10
Udomchoke @3,21 2/10
Marc Gicquel @11 0.5/10
ToJo @3.45 1/10
Melzer @3.25 2/10

Djoko + Safin +2,56
Udomchoke +4,42
Gicquel -0.5
ToJo -1
Melzer -2
=======

+3,48

 

[danlin]

Zverev over Ginepri 3,85 3/10
Muller over Davydenko 7,5 0.5/10
Kohlschreiber over Nadal 8,75 0.5/10

Blake + Nalbandian + Gonzalez 1,92 7/10
Haas + Hewitt 1,50 5/10

3 dogs, 5 Favs ... Thats basically it ... for tomorrow

Let's make some cash :howdy:

 

[Hope1]

gl today danlin. Nice anti-Ferrero call yesterday. Juan Carlos is in free fall.

 

[danlin]

Zverev over Ginepri 3,85 3/10
Muller over Davydenko 7,5 0.5/10
Kohlschreiber over Nadal 8,75 0.5/10

Blake + Nalbandian + Gonzalez 1,92 7/10
Haas + Hewitt 1,50 5/10

Zverev -3
Muller -0.5
Kohlschreiber -0.5

Blake + Nalbandian + Gonzalez +6.44
Haas + Hewitt 1,50 +2.5

================
+4,94

ytd: 4-6 +8,42

Favs went through, but Dogs without a chance :nopityA:

 

[danlin]

W. Arthurs 4,8 1/10
Youzhny 24,0 0.5/10
Querrey 4,0 1/10
Hrbaty 3,0 2/10

Andy Roddick 1,63 10/10

Lets make some real cash, Roddick will wipe Safin out of the court.

greetings danlin

 

[danlin]

W. Arthurs 4,8 1/10
Youzhny 24,0 0.5/10
Querrey 4,0 1/10
Hrbaty 3,0 2/10
Andy Roddick 1,63 10/10

Arthurs -1
Youyhny -0.5
Querry -1
Hrbaty -2
Roddick +6,3
===========
+1,8

ytd: 5-10 +10,22

again a bad day for dogs, arthurs retired, Youzhny did well bet hadn't a chance, Query took one set but hadn't the power to finish Robredo, Hrbaty was very dissapointing :nopityA:

 

[danlin]

Let's continue with not making real cash :lolBIG::

Chela 4,0 2/10
Santoro 7,26 1/10
Wawrinka 5,57 1/10

Gonzalez 1,85 4/10

Nalbandian + Haas + Blake 2,16 5/10

...

some small thought:
- chela has beaten Murray at the AO last year. Murray is a great talent but pretty unstable in his performances
- Santoro ... H2H 0-3 against davy, but the odds let me place a small bet her
- Wawrinka ... this is not clay, so Nadal is vulnerable. He lost to some medicore players on hard, so Wawrinka with a chance
- Hewitts great days are over, struggling against Russel and Dancevic ... if Gonzo takes this one seriously he will wipe Hewitt out of the court.

- the 3 Favs shouldn't have problems

Lets cash :howdy:

 

[llabb]

I've been liking the favorites parlays, danlin, but dogs have been rough. Dogs should have better chances starting this round, though. Like the Chela and Wawrinka dog plays at good odds, and like parlaying Blake, Haas, Davydenko, and perhaps top women favs, for a near even money parlay. Not as sure about Nalbandian, so left him out.

Could you separate out your dogs record and your favs-parlay record? You have good results at over +10u so far, but with the 5-10 record including dogs, it's tough to see which part the value came from, the dogs or the fav-parlays.

 

[Railbird]

dogs dont do as well in hard court majors.

 

[danlin]

Haas pending from yesterday ...

Roddick + Federer 1,39 8/10
Federer 3:0 1,70 6/10
Gasquet 1,80 3/10

:howdy:

 

[jwblue]

Haas pending from yesterday ...

Roddick + Federer 1,39 8/10
Federer 3:0 1,70 6/10
Gasquet 1,80 3/10

:howdy:

Everyone on Gasquet. I hope that is not a bad sign.

IS

 

[danlin]

Everyone on Gasquet. I hope that is not a bad sign.

IS

Indeed it was :nopityA:

from Saturday:
Chela -2
Santoro -1
Wawrinka 5,57 -1
Gonzalez 1,85 +3,4 (arrg ... should have placed a much higher bet here ... )
Nalbandian + Haas + Blake +5,8
========================
+5,2

ytd: 7-13 +15,42

fav-parlays: 4-0
fav-singles: 2-0
dogs: 1-13 :ughhh:

:howdy:

 

[danlin]

Roddick + Federer 1,39 8/10
Federer 3:0 1,70 6/10
Gasquet 1,80 3/10

Roddick + Federer +3,12
Federer 3:0 +4,2
Gasquet 1,80 -3
=============
+4,32

ytd: 9-14 +19,74

fav-parlays: 5-0
fav-singles: 3-1
dogs: 1-13 :ughhh:

 

[danlin]

monday:

Nalbandian 2,09 4/10
Murray 3,40 6/10

Davydenko + Blake 2,51 3/10

- Nalbandian loves this kind of matches ... don't see Haas havin bis chances here
- Murray is value ... on hardcourt he is better thn Nadal

gl and lets make some cash :howdy:

 

[danlin]

Nalbandian 2,09 4/10
Murray 3,40 6/10
Davydenko + Blake 2,51 3/10

All lost ... -13
dissapointing performances from Nalbandian and Blake ... Murray had a lot of chances to win this, but he didn't convert them
:nopityA:

ytd: 9-17 +6,74

fav-parlays: 5-1
fav-singles: 3-1
dogs: 1-15 :ughhh:

 

[danlin]

Roddick 1,19 10/10
Federer 3:0 1,4 5/10

 

[Dutchy]

Unlucky with Murray, I was on him also but had a save on Nadal winning in 5.

Just to let you guys know there is no extreme heat forecast for the rest of the week down here as is usually the case this time of year...should be quite comfortable for the rest of the tourney

 

[danlin]

Roddick 1,19 10/10
Federer 3:0 1,4 5/10

Another bad day for the dogs ... :

Roddick +1,9
Federer 3:0 +2
============
+3,9

ytd: 11-17 +10,64

fav-parlays: 5-1
fav-singles: 5-1
dogs: 1-15 :ughhh: