A few of you have been following these wagers and the show. We are 2-for-2 so far on elimination wagers posted in this forum, and have a highly +EV wager locked in on a male winning.
The first week Pinny offered an elimination wager was the 2nd week of the show, and we bet a female to be eliminated and called it perfectly with Shanna and Willa in the bottom 2. The next week, we bet Willa and Harry to be eliminated, and Harry was eliminated, with Willa getting a reprieve. I've also won a couple matchups and individual props, but didn't get to post them, as it was too close to the show-time. Will try to post these earlier in the future.
But right now, it's time to bet on who will be eliminated tonight. Pinny again has elimination wagers under their Reality TV Props. Explanation of expected +EV wager below, summary at bottom.
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Tonight the frontrunners to go home are Jerry at -110 and Sara at +120, with everyone else having pretty high odds and less likelihood expected to be sent home. Last week, we could pair Willa and Harry due to favorable odds, but you cannot take both Jerry and Sara tonight. (Well, except for a tiny possible semi-scalp, but it's not guaranteed, so not worth playing.)
Looking at both contestants, Jerry was in the bottom 2 last week, and has repeatedly said that he doesn't belong on the show, what is American doing keeping him around, and that he only wants to make it to this week, so he can practice the waltz, which he is going to dance at his daughter's wedding. Jerry's humor, charm, and this nice story of the wedding waltz have helped keep him around until this week, despite being one of the worst dancers. His scores each week have been 2nd worst, very worst, 2nd worst, and 3rd worst.
Now that he has finally made it to this week, and danced a touching waltz, he no longer has a good reason to stay. He even knows it, and joked "well, my daughter said we might be dancing 2 dances, so..." Jerry does have a fanbase, but it's smaller than most of the remaining fanbases, and his fans are not really the Dancing with the Stars kind of people anyway, are they. His fanbase is probably tiring, as he is one of the worst dancers and has made his goal, so there is no big reason to be voting for him anymore. He is most likely to leave.
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Meanwhile, Sara is the next contestant after Jerry favored towards leaving. She also gets low scores, but put up one good performance last week, where she was 3rd best. Despite initial weeks where she had low judges' scores, she has never been in the bottom 2 or even bottom 3. This clearly points to her strong fanbase.
Many of us on these forums might not know her fanbase, but she is a country Female Artist of the Year and had numerous #1 hits and top 20 singles. Tom DeLay and other politicians are even campaigning for her, with DeLay sending out e-mails urging supporters to vote for her (conservative-country-Republican-religious connections).
DeLay e-mail linked here:
url=http://thinkprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/2006/09/delayletterbig.gif
Due to this fanbase, she is less likely to be eliminated, despite an awful performance last night.
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So basically, odds and betting-wise we need to take a stand between Jerry and Sara, and Jerry is clearly more likely to be eliminated. Near -110 to -120'ish, this is a very good wager and should be +EV. There is a little risk and it's not virtually guaranteed like the last 2 weeks where, but that's because the last 2 weeks' bets were like -300 bets that should have been -500 or so. This one is a -120 wager that should probably be around -200, and is probably +EV up to around -150.
Bottom 2 may be close this week, and besides Jerry and Sara, there's a chance that Willa or Vivica takes a bottom spot. Will look to see if there's eventually any good hedges there, but right now, Jerry is the clear play.
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Summary: Bet Jerry to be eliminated from -100 up to -150.
Estimated proper odds imo -200.
The first week Pinny offered an elimination wager was the 2nd week of the show, and we bet a female to be eliminated and called it perfectly with Shanna and Willa in the bottom 2. The next week, we bet Willa and Harry to be eliminated, and Harry was eliminated, with Willa getting a reprieve. I've also won a couple matchups and individual props, but didn't get to post them, as it was too close to the show-time. Will try to post these earlier in the future.
But right now, it's time to bet on who will be eliminated tonight. Pinny again has elimination wagers under their Reality TV Props. Explanation of expected +EV wager below, summary at bottom.
---------------
Tonight the frontrunners to go home are Jerry at -110 and Sara at +120, with everyone else having pretty high odds and less likelihood expected to be sent home. Last week, we could pair Willa and Harry due to favorable odds, but you cannot take both Jerry and Sara tonight. (Well, except for a tiny possible semi-scalp, but it's not guaranteed, so not worth playing.)
Looking at both contestants, Jerry was in the bottom 2 last week, and has repeatedly said that he doesn't belong on the show, what is American doing keeping him around, and that he only wants to make it to this week, so he can practice the waltz, which he is going to dance at his daughter's wedding. Jerry's humor, charm, and this nice story of the wedding waltz have helped keep him around until this week, despite being one of the worst dancers. His scores each week have been 2nd worst, very worst, 2nd worst, and 3rd worst.
Now that he has finally made it to this week, and danced a touching waltz, he no longer has a good reason to stay. He even knows it, and joked "well, my daughter said we might be dancing 2 dances, so..." Jerry does have a fanbase, but it's smaller than most of the remaining fanbases, and his fans are not really the Dancing with the Stars kind of people anyway, are they. His fanbase is probably tiring, as he is one of the worst dancers and has made his goal, so there is no big reason to be voting for him anymore. He is most likely to leave.
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Meanwhile, Sara is the next contestant after Jerry favored towards leaving. She also gets low scores, but put up one good performance last week, where she was 3rd best. Despite initial weeks where she had low judges' scores, she has never been in the bottom 2 or even bottom 3. This clearly points to her strong fanbase.
Many of us on these forums might not know her fanbase, but she is a country Female Artist of the Year and had numerous #1 hits and top 20 singles. Tom DeLay and other politicians are even campaigning for her, with DeLay sending out e-mails urging supporters to vote for her (conservative-country-Republican-religious connections).
DeLay e-mail linked here:
url=http://thinkprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/2006/09/delayletterbig.gif
Due to this fanbase, she is less likely to be eliminated, despite an awful performance last night.
---------------
So basically, odds and betting-wise we need to take a stand between Jerry and Sara, and Jerry is clearly more likely to be eliminated. Near -110 to -120'ish, this is a very good wager and should be +EV. There is a little risk and it's not virtually guaranteed like the last 2 weeks where, but that's because the last 2 weeks' bets were like -300 bets that should have been -500 or so. This one is a -120 wager that should probably be around -200, and is probably +EV up to around -150.
Bottom 2 may be close this week, and besides Jerry and Sara, there's a chance that Willa or Vivica takes a bottom spot. Will look to see if there's eventually any good hedges there, but right now, Jerry is the clear play.
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Summary: Bet Jerry to be eliminated from -100 up to -150.
Estimated proper odds imo -200.
