Dallas -1.5

[TampaLuke]

Three out of New Orleans four wins have come at home. They are 1-1 on the road. Two of those home wins came down to the wire. Winning in the last minute against San Jose and in OT last week versus the Storm. On the surface these are two very impressive wins. I think we can reasonably discount both wins. Both teams were handicapped with injuries.

Dallas has a win over Orlando that I think you reasonably discount also. Orlando was coming off a short week and a hard fought battle against their in stat rival.

This week New Orleans has to travel and is coming off a hard fought win against the Storm. Dallas cruised to victory and gets to play at home. I think this game closely resembles the Orlando game for Dallas. I also think we are in fact getting some value in the line due to San Jose and Tampa being in New Orleans win column. I am not completly sold on the Voodoo defense yet. The 42 the Storm put up could be adjusted up to at least a 50 for injuries.

If this is a close game, advantage Dallas. New Orleans might not have enough left in the tank.

 

[AFLGuru]

Just wanted to correct something you mentioned Luke. Orlando was on a 6 days rest. Dallas was on 4. It was Dallas on the short week when they beat Orlando because we whooped your a$$es on the previous Friday

But aside from that, I think you've got a pretty good handle on the game. Never discount the veteran leadership of Andy Kelly, though... He's a lot better than Joe Hamilton is. And this is also the same Dallas team that was dead to rights against Columbus... before they started playing like Columbus.

A definite no-bet for me... I'm more sold on Dallas as the weeks go by, especially in that division, but New Orleans has the most moxie in the AFL right now, and that could bode well for them tomorrow night. Can't discount any wins in the AFL... and remember that road loss was to 4-1 Georgia, and only by 2.

--AFLGuru:toast:

 

[TampaLuke]

Yeah, I didn't have my thoughts well arranged this morning when I posted. I was leaving to go to, I hate to even say it, Orlando,Yuck. That always puts me in a bad psycological state. While it does strengthen the quality of the win, I still say that Orlando was in a bad spot for that game. Everything else still stands. Unless New Orleans is much the best team, which could be possible, Dallas is the only side to bet.

 

[AFLGuru]

Very possible to take N.O. on the ml if the number gets up around +140, under the logic that they will win the game just under half the time at worst... And Orlando WAS in a miserable spot for that game... still inexcusable, even if Dallas does turn out to really be one of the league's elite.

 

[TampaLuke]

Suprising to see the Voodoo rise to +3 +101, while every poster in here besides me is on New Orleans. I was considering taking the 3 to create a small scalp with my 1.5. Really just to sit it out. But, I just can't. This is not the best spot for New Orleans. Home field has proven strong in the AFL. Dallas's hand is just as hot as NO. I just do not see the Voodoo backers point here. I will go down with my 1.5. F*** IT!!

 

[AFLGuru]

Luke--

Couple reasons that people are backing New Orleans (basically this will just be a list of reasons to take New Orleans)...

Andy Kelly is the most experienced QB in the AFL, and if anyone is going to beat HFA consistently, it's him. Clint Stoerner still makes a lot of mistakes, and Dallas still shoots itself in critical spots with foolish penalties.

New Orleans might have the most polished offense in the AFL right now. Though they have very little in terms of a rushing attack, Kelly has seemingly found Bailey and gang at will. That being said, they've played some decent secondaries this year including Tampa's and Georgia's. I agree that the team isn't battled tested on the road this season, but New Orleans wins a lot of intangibles in this game if it's close, including the better kicker and better coach. I myself believe that 3 is generous for New Orleans to be getting anywhere against anyone right now the way they're playing ball. Yes, they've been close games that they've pulled out, but in this league, those are the games that make you. They've played just enough defense at the right times and just enough offense without shooting themselves. Solid ball club. Consider your scalp if it jumps to 3.5 in this one.

--AFLGuru