Daily NBA picks with full analyses and predictions

[NbaTip]

I have been making profit with my NBA plays 8 years in a row now with an average yield close to 6% (considering the turnover its solid). What I will do here is post some of my plays with few paragraphs of explanations why I think it is a good bet. I personally think if you cant put up reasoning behind your bet better than "its my gut feeling" you probably should not take it.

GL

 

[NbaTip]

Houston vs Portland 21/01/14

Portland is slowly coming back to that impressive form they had early in the season. The Trailblazers have won their last 5 games with last 2 of them being rather impressive away wins against the Spurs and the Mavericks. With a record of 31-9 Portland is leading the Western Conference standings and with 15 wins and 5 losses it is strange to see them being rated as underdogs against the Houston Rockets.

Houston has 27 wins and 15 losses. They are 6-4 over last 10 games and 4-1 in their last 5 games. But this is a bad 4-1, cause they have looked shaky even in some of their losses. For example they managed to beat the Bucks 114-104 2 days ago, but kept struggling with their shooting going 7-27 from long range. That awful shooting actually started a game before when they managed to score only 19 points during the 2nd half. The 54-point disparity between points scored in 2st and 2nd half was the largest in two different halves of the same game in NBA history. The Rockets just couldn`t make a shot and that carried over to their next game against the Bucks.

Houston has a home game, but Portland in general has been a better team. They have a better record better momentum and should be favored here. Take Portland to win with 5/10 stakes.


Read my other analyses from www.nbabettingtip.com

GL

 

[NbaTip]

Miami vs Boston 22/01

Couple of seasons ago this would have been a derby game between two Eastern Conference title contenders. This season it is a game between a team who tries to three-peat and a team who would like to get a draft pick as high as possible.

Miami lost a game last night against the Hawks. This could be the key factor why they will come out and cover the line tonight. The Heat has been an excellent back-to-back team this year, winning most of these games. With a 29-12 record Miami is already 4 wins behind the Pacers and know they have to start putting winning streaks together if they want to secure homecourt through out the Eastern Conference playoffs. Boston at the same time is bottoming out and wouldnt mind putting up losing streaks. They have done excellent job in that losing 9 of their last 10 games.

The stories that circle around the Heat are mainly talking about team trying to find a regular season motivation. Coming from a loss and playing against their old time rivals while still remembering a tough buzzer beater loss they had against the Celtics this season, we think Miami will come out and try to murder Boston. -9.5 points handicap is high, but so is the Heat desire to make it a blowout. 5/10 stakes.

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gl

 

[NbaTip]

Milwaukee vs Detroit

Neither of those two teams has a play-off spot at the moment, but there`s still a huge difference between them. Detroit has a record of 17 wins and 24 losses while the Bucks have league "leading" 7 wins and 33 losses. So in fact difference in quality can be measured by 10 wins at the moment. It should be 11 wins between them after tonight.

Milwaukee has taken good care of theor main goal this season - tanking for draft balls. They currently have a 9 game losing streak. Players are probably not that happy about that, but bottoming out this season is probably the smartest thing to do. During this 9 game losing streak Milwaukee has covered tonights +4.5 line offered for them in grand total of 0 times. Most of their losses have been in double digits and blowouts.

Maybe the biggest difference between these teams is the motivation. While Detroit is fighting for the play-off spot. Milwaukee cant wait for this season to end. Detroit is currently 1 game behind the 8th seed in the East and they know they just cant lose games to teams like the Bucks. They have taken good care of the Bucks in prevoius 2 meetings this season so expect similar thing to happen tonight. -4.5 with 5/10 stakes.

Toronto vs Dallas @ www.nbabettingtip.com

 

[NbaTip]

Denver vs Portland

Denver and Portland both can score a lot of points, but o/u line 221.5 points still seems a bit excessive. At some point defense must kick in. To reach over 221 points it takes free-flowing, not much defending game for full 48 minutes and we dont see that happening.

Portland will have first home game after a tough 4-game roadtrip against SAS, DAL, HOU and OKC. They split these four games going 2-2. As it often is in NBA, first game back at home tends to be a tough one. So expect Portland to struggle a bit with their shooting. To have a chance against the Nuggets they need to slow down the tempo and make it a half-court offence affair.

First meeting between these teams finished with Portland winning the game 113-98 totalling 211 points. This game will be high scoring, but there`s no real reason why it should go much more higher that. Value is on under here. 3/10 stakes.

GL

 

[packer4]

That's not very good NBAtip you should fade your picks you would be hot

 

[NbaTip]

Boson vs Oklahoma City
25/01

Boston beat the Pistons couple of days ago to improve their record to 15-29. Nevertheless they have won only 2 games in January while losing 11 games. As stated many times before the Celtics dont mind losing. They know that making to the play-offs is a long shot and even if they do make it to the playoffs having 7th or 8th seed basically still means 1st round exit against the Heat or the Pacers. Rajon Rondo is back from an injury, but the Celtics will be using him cautiosly and limit his minutes.

Thunder on the other hand is playing great basketball even without Russell Westbrook. They have won 5 games in a row including wins against the Rockets, Trailblazers and the Spurs. Kevin Durant is shooting the lights out and is basically locked in to win a scoring title plus have a serious run to finally contest Lebron James for the MVP honours.

We just think that quality will prevail here. Boston has no options to stop Kevin Durant from scoring at will. Boston has home court advantage, but Thunder has been hot lately. They should be much better here and cover -7.0 points. 4/10 stakes.

GL

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[NbaTip]

Portland vs Minnesota
26/01

Minnesota was victorious last night as they managed to beat the Warriors by a point. Great win for the Timberwolves, but this game could cost them tonight when they have to play a back-to-back game against the Trailblazers.

Portland had a rest day last night after beating the Nuggets in Moda Center 2 days ago. So they haven`t been travelling and should be well prepared to play the Timberwolves tonight. Even on normal circumstances they should be a clearly better team here as they have 11 wins more than the T`Wolves this season. Portland has a 17-4 home record as of now, so they are tough team to beat at their homecourt.

Minnesota has won 3 games in a row, but 2 of them against one of the weakest teams in the league - Utah Jazz. They played "run and gun" type of game last night in Oakland and will feel that in their legs tonight. Bookies correctly assume it will be a high scoring game (o/u line is 220.5 points), but Portland is not the Warriors and they will defend much better against tired Wolves. Expect the difference between the teams to balloon and Portland to cover -7.5 points. 4/10 stakes.

gl

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[NbaTip]

Knicks vs Lakers
26/01

New York got exactly what they needed 2 days ago when they beat the Bobcats in a blowout fashion 125-96. They needed that win, but more importantly they needed something to happen that would spark the team. Melo scoring 62 (!!!) points could be exactly that spark to lift the team. 62 points marked the MSG record and a team record. Coming from such a performance and facing a team with shorthanded roster expect New York to win tonight.

Lakers problems are well documented. Kobe and Nash are out with injuries, Gasol is constantly involved in trade rumours and play-offs seem to be in a far distance. Losing has become a habit for the Lakers as they have lost 9 of their last 11 games.

Momentum can swing in one game. New York fans hope they have it going now and the Lakers could be the best opponent for the Knicks players to prove it. I see home team covering -5.5 points here. 4/10 stakes.

gl

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[NbaTip]

Chicago vs Minnesota
28/01

Minnesota has had couple of high scoring games recently so the over/under market has adjusted and market is expecting hot shooting and overish games to continue. The difference is Chicago Bulls is not Golden State Warriors or Portland Trailblazers.

After losing Rose once again to an injury and letting Luol Deng to go, Chicago knows they cant go and offensively run over opponents. They have adjusted to win the games at the defensive ends. It has been especially effective in home games and against opponents who like to have up tempo games. Good examples from the recent past are games against Raptors (79-85) Suns (92-87) and 76ers (103-78). This game tonight should look something similar with Chicago taking its time offensively and making T`Wolves to run their half-court offense.

Minnesota will play 4th away game in a row with previous 3 games being run and gun type of affairs. Playing 3rd game in 4 nights and against a team that will try to offensively gag them this should take its toll. Not sure who will cover here, but the tempo should be dictated by the Bulls and the game should stay under 195 points. 4/10 stakes.

GL

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[NbaTip]

Houston vs San Antonio
29/01

Houston Rockets will have a home court advantage. They have to take a full advantage of that advantage, because thats the only advantage they have tonight. As always the Spurs look exceptionally dangerous after losing a game. Once again a bounce back from an emotional game (bringing back bad memories) and tough loss against the Heat is what the Spurs should do.

Houston can be dangerous if they get hot, but playing against the team with such a huge amount of experience and a coach with bag full of tricks, this is unlikely to happen tonight. It would come to the point where Pop would use hack-a-dwight if he feels the need to slow the Rockets shooting down. Needless to say that the Spurs will probably be better prepared to play the Rockets than the Rockets are prepared to play the defending Western Conference champs.

Kawhi Leonrad is out with an injury, but Boris Diaw has been playing his best as a Spur. San Antonio has lost 2 games already this season to Houston (both games played in San Antonio). Now will it happen 3rd time in a row? You should seriously doubt in that and rather put your money on away team. San Antonio to win @2.05 with 4/10 stakes is the play here.

gl

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[NbaTip]

Knicks vs Cavaliers
29/01

After Melo scored 62 points the Knicks are yet to lose the game. Yeah, its true they have played only 2 games since and against rather weak opponents, but they actually have looked better and its not like Cleveland is going for the championship this year.

With the winning streak reaching to 3 games New York now has a record of 18 wins and 27 losses. Not good by the Knicks standards, but it is now only 3 wins behind last play-off spot. Cleveland (16-29) as one of those teams the Knicks could be fighting for the spot at the end of the season both teams know the importance of that game. New York will have 7th home game in a row, which will be an advantage in a sense that home court now really feels like home as they have played there so many games in a row and have been winning lately.

Cleveland is slumping. They lost 4 of their last 5 games (all of them played at home court). Going to play an away game could in a sense be a relief here, but the problem is that the Cavaliers have been nothing short of an awful playing road games aswell. Their away record is only 5-17. Knicks should be able to continue its winning streak and cover -6.0 points aswell. 5/10 stakes.

gl

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[NbaTip]

Minnesota vs Memphis
01/02

What a difference one player makes? Huge, if you ask the Grizzlies fans and players. Memphis looked like in serious troubles when Marc Gasol got injured and was unavailable for the team. Ever since his return they have looked like a good team again - they have won 7 games and lost only once. With a current record of 24-20 the Grizzlies are just 0.5 games behind the Mavericks, so clearly back on track for the race to make it to the play-offs.

Minnesota`s season can be described as an up and down ride on a roller coaster. They are having one of their up`s at the moment winning 4 of their last 5 games. All that said they lost to the Trailblazers and then beat the Bulls and the Pelicans that are clearly only average teams as of now. Nikola Pekovic sustained an injury against the Bulls and will miss tonight`s game. Other than his contribution it also hurts Minnesota cause opponents now can pay more attention to Kevin Love. What other teams have really learned is to slow down tempo against the T`Wolves and double team Love while making Ricky Rubio a jump-shooter. Memphis is clearly one of these teams to exploit that tactics and thus have the upperhand here. Having last year`s defensive player of the year back in their low-post can`t hurt aswell.

Another note ... with Kevin Love being selected as an All-Star game starter, it is likely few guys from the Grizzlies side want to prove few things. Expect the Grizzlies to be as motivated as ever. Memphis to cover -1.5 with 4/10 units.


GL

 

[NbaTip]

Wizards vs Thunder 02/01

It probably becomes a "public pick" and that is always a bit scary, but there`s just no way to imagine how to stop the Thunder right now. They are absolutely running their opponents out of the building lately. Oh yes, they do all that while having All-Star caliber player sidelined with a knee injury.

With a record of 38 wins and 10 losses Oklahoma City is leading the league. With 10 wins in a row they are the hottest team in the league at the moment. This streak also includes wins against Miami, San Antonio, Houston, Portland and Golden State. Average winning margin is 11,7 points. There`s one bad news - Kevin Durant`s 30+ points scoring streak ended at 12 games last night. But we all can forgive him, cause it was a blowout game and KD only played 30 minutes, still making 10 of 12 shots from the field and scoring 26 points. Shortly, its hard to even explain on what kind of roll Durant and his team are at the moment.

Now playing back-to-back against the Wizards they are only favored by -4.5 points. Washington is not bad, but they still have a losing record (22-23) and losing record in home games (10-11). It will be all about the Thunder`s effort. If they come out with energy (which they should have enough left in the tank after having easy game last night) it should be a no contest. Thunder to cover -4.5 points with 5/10 units.

GL

 

[NbaTip]

Washington vs Portland 04/02

The Wizards took a full advantage of meeting Oklahoma City back end of their back-to-back games. Washington took an early lead as the Thunder struggled to find any kind of rhythm. Beating league`s leading team still doesn`t make the Wizards top team in the league.

What happened could explain the line for tonight`s game though. All the sudden a game between Washington and Portland is seen as a close matchup. The truth is the Wizards are still an average team with .500 record both overall and in home games. Portland on the other hand is one of the league`s leading teams with 34 wins and 13 losses. Statistically and in reality there`s an ocean between those two teams.

Both teams played their last game 2 days ago. So this time Washington will meet opponents with the same level of fatique. When it comes to Thunder ... lightning can hit once, but it usually doesnt hit twice in same place, so this time clearly a better team should take care of Washington`s ambitions. Portland -1.5 with 4/10 units.

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[NbaTip]

Warriors vs Bobcats 05/02

Fact that Golden State likes to play high scoring, up tempo games probably comes as a no surprise. This is especially true in their home games when the Warriors have scored 105 pts as an average this season which is 2 pts higher than their average points scored overall. It`s actually vice versa with the Bobcats who average 96,3 points in away games and 2 points less as a overall.

So yes, statistically this game should go slightly over 200 points. But it is obviously not only the statistics here. The matter of a fact is that Golden State likes to dictate the tempo of the game and the Bobcats are usually the team to let their opponents to do so. That probably means that after having 4 days of rest the Warriors are likely to push the tempo and take early shots as often as possible. Charlotte having 3 days of rest probably won`t mind running along.

This will be 2nd meeting between these teams with 1st game finishing 115-111. That`s 25 points higher than over/under line set for tonight`s game. It probably won`t go as higher as that, but considering fresh legs and that the game is played in Oakland should still go safely over the line offered. Over 201 points with 4/10 units.

GL

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[NbaTip]

Clippers vs Heat 06/02

It is true that Miami had a very mediocre month of January. At least by the standards. On the other hand the Clippers have been playing exceptionally good considering that they lost Chris Paul to a shoulder injury a month ago. Still playing without their brain could prove to be tough challenge against a smart team such as the Heat.

Main improvement for the Clippers has come from the play of Blake Griffin. Formerly known as a highlight reel dunker, he has improved his outside and free-throw shooting which together with his leaping ability makes him a tough player to defend. Thanks to Griffin`s efforts the Clippers have won 6 of their last 10 games. Worrying signs are there though as they got beaten by 20 points by the Warriors and 3 days ago lost to the Nuggets.

As said Miami had rather casual result for the January, but they have been playing better lately. They have won last 5 of their 6 games with the sole loss against the Thunder. Not sure if the Heat should be an underdog against any team. They are tonight, but should be able to expose the Clippers lack of playmaking. Miami to win @2.05 with 4/10 stakes.

gl

 

[NbaTip]

Celtics vs Pacers 01/03

The Celtics won their last game, but these wins are rare to come. In fact they did lose 5 games in a row before that. The Celtics have an overall record of 20 wins and 39 losses, which leaves them 6 wins behind the last play-off spot in the East. Of course Boston is more interested of getting closer to the bottom than moving up in the standings. A game against the Eastern Conference powerhouse and a current leader Indiana Pacers is the perfect spot to get another loss, while saving their face and not making it too obvious that they are really doing the tanking job here.

The Pacers on the other hand want to win and they know they have to keep winning to keep their 3 win lead over the Heat. Miami has been playing hot lately and the Pacers players must be making some notes. Indiana in fact has won 3 games in a row, but being clearly a better team they have struggled to but rather weak opponents away early. Playing in Boston could actually help here as the away game makes sure that the Pacers players have a better focus.

Two teams that are moving in different direction and who would be both happy with the same outcome. Indiana is just too loaded for the Celtics to handle them. In previous 2 meetings this season Indiana has been over powering the Celtics winning them 97-82 and 106-79. If the focus for the Pacers is there, they should be able to take good care of this game early and cover the -6.5 points. 5/10 units

GL
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[NbaTip]

Chicago Bulls vs New York Knicks 02/03

This is an early game in Sunday`s schedule. So far this season New York has been struggling in all of their early games, often finding themselves in a big hole already after the 1st quarter. To everyone surprise, even after losing Derrick Rose yet to another season ending injury, the Bulls have managed to keep their level of play and quality intact. They are holding 4th position in the East and have a similar 32-26 record as do the Raptors (currently 3rd).

Of course being 3rd or 4th is about the maximum the Bulls can hope for and they are far behind the Heat and the Pacers. Yet it is still impressing that they are likely to have a homercourt advantage for 1st round of the play-offs. The Bulls got a quality win against the Mavericks 2 days ago and have now won 8 of their last 9 games. Those wins also include the Nets, Warriors and Hawks. With a double digit deficit at some point against the Mavericks, the Bulls did show what they are made of. They kept high scoring Dallas only on 15 points during the 4th quarter and secured 9 point win.

New York is of course awful or terrible or just pathetic. Whatever the word you choose it has been crazy down slide for the team. They have lost 8 of their last 9 games and last 2 games have been classic blowouts. It is not only losing, but also the lack of energy, passion or intesity. With players having problems on and off the court, most of the time they look like zombies. Being in such state meeting the Chicago Bulls is probably the worst possible opponent for them. Especially in an away game. The Bulls rarely fail to bring the energy, which nowadays clearly is enough to blow away the Knicks. Chicago to cover -6 points with 6/10 units

GL

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[NbaTip]

Pistons vs Kicks 03/03

Prediction about the Knicks struggles proved to be spot yesterday. They will be playing back-to-back away game tonight and there`s no reason to believe anything will change over night.

Those who even care to watch the Knicks games can see, that the players have lost all their interest. Rightfully so, since 5 games out of the play-offs with only 23 games remaining making to the play-offs feels like a mission impossible. Especially considering how they are playing at the moment. The changes have to be made and they must start with changing the coach. Sometimes players fold for their head-coach and that`s what it looks to have happened here. Woodson needs to be sacked. Will it happen already this season – who knows (probably not even James Dolan himself), but before it happens the Knicks will maintain their current level (translation: they will suck).

Detroit is only 23-36, but it is still better than New York`s record. Which gives them more hopes to sneak into the play-offs. The Pistons know they can`t lose home games against teams like the Knicks, so expect them to give their full effort tonight. They have lost 4 games in a row, but they have played against strong West teams (DAL, GSW, SAS and HOU) and they have been in contention in all of these games. With having an advantage of fersh legs, home court and meeting the team with zero heartbeat it should be enough for the Pistons to cover -4.0 points.

read my other analyses from www.nbabets.net

GL