Wagner vs Fordham
Wagner +9.5 - 110
This is a big spread being put up on this game in my estimation, for a variety of reasons, the first of which is the fact that Wagner’s pace is really quite slow. They rank outside of the top 100 in terms of possessions per game, and what this does is at the very least, limit how ugly this one gets if they can score at a respectable rate. And playing this Fordham team who comes in off the heels of a monster win against Tulane, I’m thinking they’ll have more than enough opportunities to get easy buckets —- because Fordham turns the ball over 15+ times a game.
Turnovers in low-possession games are doubly painful, and with Fordham not exactly being road runners themselves, this game is going to be one that is played at a pretty slow pace. Under scripts never hurt the underdog, and with Wagner shooting the ball a lot better this year (34% of jumpers), the concern that they just don’t hit enough shots might be a little bit overblown.
Honestly, if Wagner weren’t shooting under 60% from the foul line on the season this would be a spot where I’d sprinkle the ML —- but when you can’t trust a team you hit FTs as big dogs, you just shouldn’t bet them. That said —- covering nearly 10 points is somewhere I’m banking on here —- and it wouldn’t be so bad if you did too!
