Spurs @ Manchester United
Spurs Draw No Bet (+105) @ Bet365
In the premier match of the premier league’s midweek fixtures Spurs travel to Old Trafford in hopes of taking advantage of a United team that, frankly is still very far from where they ought to be as a club. One need look no further than their most recent performance — a 0-0 draw with Newcastle in which they were outplayed for the first 70 minutes of the match as indicative of a long-standing problem. Because as time wore on and the depth of the Magpies was tested United did manage to take control of the match — though they hardly stormed the gate at the end (xG was marginally different between the sides), the issues that have plagued this team remain ever present despite all the change;
The midfield is neither progressive nor skillful, nor are they particularly athletic and dogged. Moreover, they’ve really yet to find a pairing that allows them to play the possession style Ten Haag was hoping to — meaning they’ve reverted in many ways to type…
Which is to make opponents pay when playing a high line by getting in behind, and being ruthless on the counter. This works so long as the opposition doesn’t look to play an equally ugly style of football, but when they chose to defend in a low block United too often runs out of ideas.
Which makes a match-up with Spurs particularly unpleasant for United — because not only does Conte’s side defend in a low block, they do so at an incredibly effective level. No team has allowed fewer “high danger” chances this year, and while Spurs do allow the opposition team a boatload of final 3rd touches (7th most in the League) — they defend the 18-yard box like a dog does his bone.
Beyond just the stylistic match-up though, Spurs has just performed as the better side for months now, and while I’m sure at some point United will begin to improve, I just do not see it being in this marquee match. The gap in Spurs’ xG differential (+0.51xG) vs United’s xG differential (-0.12xG) through 7 games says pretty clearly that Tottenham is worthy of a bet in this spot, even on the road at Old Trafford.
Spurs Draw No Bet (+105) @ Bet365
In the premier match of the premier league’s midweek fixtures Spurs travel to Old Trafford in hopes of taking advantage of a United team that, frankly is still very far from where they ought to be as a club. One need look no further than their most recent performance — a 0-0 draw with Newcastle in which they were outplayed for the first 70 minutes of the match as indicative of a long-standing problem. Because as time wore on and the depth of the Magpies was tested United did manage to take control of the match — though they hardly stormed the gate at the end (xG was marginally different between the sides), the issues that have plagued this team remain ever present despite all the change;
The midfield is neither progressive nor skillful, nor are they particularly athletic and dogged. Moreover, they’ve really yet to find a pairing that allows them to play the possession style Ten Haag was hoping to — meaning they’ve reverted in many ways to type…
Which is to make opponents pay when playing a high line by getting in behind, and being ruthless on the counter. This works so long as the opposition doesn’t look to play an equally ugly style of football, but when they chose to defend in a low block United too often runs out of ideas.
Which makes a match-up with Spurs particularly unpleasant for United — because not only does Conte’s side defend in a low block, they do so at an incredibly effective level. No team has allowed fewer “high danger” chances this year, and while Spurs do allow the opposition team a boatload of final 3rd touches (7th most in the League) — they defend the 18-yard box like a dog does his bone.
Beyond just the stylistic match-up though, Spurs has just performed as the better side for months now, and while I’m sure at some point United will begin to improve, I just do not see it being in this marquee match. The gap in Spurs’ xG differential (+0.51xG) vs United’s xG differential (-0.12xG) through 7 games says pretty clearly that Tottenham is worthy of a bet in this spot, even on the road at Old Trafford.
