Da Coochie vs The Bookie ---- EPL Season Long Thread

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It's the most wonderful time of the footballing calendar --- as the Premier League makes its return this weekend. I had a MONSTER 2022 on the Queen's pitches, and in an effort to start bankrupting some of these crooked bookmakers I'll be giving out my plays for every week of the EPL season. For the full analysis of my picks, head over to my FREE newsletter!

Match Week One Plays:
Villa ML +100
Chelsea To win x Under 3.5 Goals (+135)
Leeds vs Wolves Over 2.5 (-102)
ManCity ML x Liverpool ML x Spurs ML (+153)
Brighton Draw No Bet +310 (.5units)
Brighton +0.5 (+135)


 

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on Villa as well simply because no midtable team should be +100 against Bournemouth who will not gain 20 points this season
 
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Fulham vs Brighton​

Both Teams To Score (No) x Under 3.5 Goals (+120)

Boy oh Boy, does Graham Potter have these Seagulls flying high to start the campaign —- through four games Brighton has accumulated 6.1 xG and only 3.9 xGA overall. Rather impressive for a side that’s typically viewed as “at best” a mid-table club, but thanks in large part to Potter’s impressive possession style, this small club from the south coast is really making strides. Last season they managed to earn the fourth-highest average possession in the league, which to me indicates we’ll see a game similar to the ones vs Leeds/Newcastle. Fulham is going to be hemmed inside their half, chasing the fluid movement of Brighton, making it hard to imagine Fulham creating anything of value.

Espescially when you realize Fulhman’s only managed to enter the opposition box with possessions 25 times, and through 4 games have created a SLIM 3xG through the first 4 matches. The midfield is being forced too deep, leaving Mitrovic with very limited options when the long ball comes up to him. Moreover, it doesn’t seem like Marco Silva is a very daring man, despite the performance against Liverpool, Fulham just hasn’t had the wingers flowing forward beyond the Big Serb Mitrovic.

So with all that in mind, and with the understanding Brighton still lacks the cutting edge to truly reap the benefits of the brilliant system Potter created, I’m backing a low-scoring, low-event game in which only one team scores.


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