Coochie vs The Bookie

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Blue Jays vs Cardinals
(HATE TO DO IT PLAY OF THE DAY)

Play —- Cardinals ML (-115

)I’m not here to lie, I’m not here to cheer, I’m here to cash tickets and bankrupt the bastard bookies. So as much as it might pain the child in me who will always love Carlos Delgado, I just HAVE TO FADE THE GOOD GUYS. Because the sad reality is, I haven’t a clue where the bats went to.

The BlueJays offense has generated three runs or fewer in five straight games and 10 of their last 13 games overall and has to try to hit one of the most surprising pitchers of the season thus far, Miles Mikolas. The man’s allowed two earned runs or fewer in all eight starts this season, having surrendered just two home runs in 48.1 innings this season with just 1.7 walks per nine innings allowed. I

t ain’t gonna be EASY for my favorite team today…The Blue Jays counter with Jose Berrios, who has some big home and road splits for both this season and his career. Berrios has a 6.43 road ERA with four home runs in 21 innings in four starts while firing a 3.15 ERA with two home runs in 20 innings across three starts at home this season.

So with the Cardinals averaging 5.1 runs per game at home this season, which is fourth in the MLB, I’m gonna expect the bird’s bats to pound Berrios along with a bullpen that is 21st in the league in ERA with 3.93.

With Berrios’ career road struggles and the Blue Jays 8-11 on the road this season, Mikolas will lead the Cardinals to another win and I’ll cash my ticket in guilt.

 

[dacoochiebets]

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Royals vs Diamondbacks
“TOONIE TUESDAY PLAY OF THE DAY”

Play —— Diamondbacks RL (+110)
Play —— Under 8.5 (-120)

IGNORE YESTERDAY AND HAMMER THE UNDER. Both teams with offensive woes enter this series, and despite the offensive explosion in the first inning yesterday, Arizona still finds itself last in the National League in batting average, and the Royals 27th in home runs per game and 24th in total runs per game.

So with the Diamondbacks putting Zac Gallen on the mound, it’s a big-time tale of two starters’ day. Gallen has ended up posting a 3-0 record and a 1.14 ERA on the year so far. Zac Gallen has thrown a total of 39.1 innings while striking out 39 batters and has allowed 20 hits and walked 8 batters, and crucially Gallen’s ability to locate has improved this season. Limiting the walks to 1.8 walks per nine innings this season compared to 3.6 walks per nine innings last season has also allowed him to go deeper into games, completing at least six innings in four of his last five starts.

So despite the Royals turning to middling prospect Jon Heasley to make his third start of the season, I still like the UNDER. It’s not been pretty for KC’s young arms, but Heasley has given up four runs across 8.1 innings in his first two appearances this season. Heasley at AAA Omaha this season posted a 4.44 ERA with 10.3 strikeouts and 6.5 hits allowed per nine innings while issuing just six walks across six starts. So maybe there’s something to work with there?

But frankly, I’m not sure it’ll matter —- The Royals ain’t getting a thing off Gallen, and if the Diamondbacks can score 3 I think they can cover this RL today.
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Brewers vs Padres​

Play —— Padres ML -125

Aaron Ashby has been utilized both out of the bullpen and as a starter for the Brewers and will get the start on Wednesday for his third start of the season. In Ashby’s two seasons at the big league level, Ashby has posted a 4.61 ERA as a starter compared to a 3.62 ERA out of the bullpen, issuing six walks and 7.8 strikeouts per nine innings as a starter compared to 13.2 strikeouts per nine innings out of the bullpen, needless to say, the kids better coming out of the pen.

But today the Padres will get‘em right from the start, much to the liking of the big Bats of Hosmer/Machado, really the only guys out in Cali getting it done for the Padres because otherwise, their friends in San Diego haven’t been doing much SLAMMIN’ this season. Regardless though it’s been timely hitting and big-time early-season performances that have powered the Padres to an 8/3 run over their last 11, much of which was played against good teams.

So with Darvish on the bump, I’m really liking the Padres to get it done here against Milwaukee, exercising a little revenge after Tuesday’s defeat.

*Of note back end of Brewers’ pen is missing Hader and has been for a couple of days now. Might see some cracks begin to show in the later innnings*​

Coochie vs The Bookie | DaCoochieCoo | Substack

Daily Plays and Betting Tips from the Danny Ocean of Sports Handicapping. Click to read Coochie vs The Bookie, by DaCoochieCoo, a Substack publication with hundreds of subscribers.

coochievsbookie.substack.com

 

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POTD 1-2

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Red Sox vs White Sox

Play —- RedSox ML (-110) and RedSox 1st5 RL (+115)

ITS FADE KEUCHEL DAY BOYS AND GIRLS

The White Sox send Dallas Keuchel to the mound, who is registering a 6.60 ERA this season and has issued more walks than strikeouts with 4.6 strikeouts per nine innings and 5.4 walks per nine innings —— if ya don’t know, THAT IS VERY BAD!

Unfortunately for the Sox side of Chicago, Keuchel is backed up by an offense that has scored three runs or fewer in eight of their last 12 games and is hitting just .228 against right-handed pitching compared to .264 against left-handed pitching. So they ain’t happy to see Wacha on the bump across the diamond, because he’s a right-handed hurler who has been SHUVING.

So far this season Wacha has been experiencing a career resurgence with a 1.76 ERA through six starts with opponents hitting .162 off of him with three home runs allowed in 30.2 innings. And things are finally looking up for the bats in Boston — scoring four or more runs in 10 of their last 12 games and for the season lead the American League in batting average.

So with Wacha having not allowed more than two runs in any of his starts this season and the with Red Sox having won each of his last five starts, I think we see the streak go to six on Thursday.

 

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- POTD 3-2

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Yankees vs Rays
Play —- Over 7.5 +100
Speaking of World Series Contenders from the Big Apple, our next play comes from another New York team getting after it down in Tampa —- and I think we see SOME RUNS.

Because, not only was the Yankees’ top reliever placed on the injured list, all-star closer Aroldis Chapman was as well, just a few days ago. The drop-off was immediately noticeable as New York’s bullpen ERA rank fell 5 spots in a 3-day span. It should become even more noticeable tonight than it did in the series opener. Yankees starter Jameson Taillon has pitched beyond 6.0 innings just once this season, and he’s had the luxury of facing the Orioles in 3 of his starts.

With it being unlikely that he will perform as well as Nestor did last night, it should be the Rays getting the runs in the later innings instead this time around. Coupled with the Yankees’ ability to produce runs, I’m again like these two teams get to 8 or more as they did for us last night.

 

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POTD 3-3

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Jays vs Angels​

Play —- Angels ML -120

Jose Berrios is slated to start for the Jays today, which sadly means Angels are the clear side. The supposed ace has a 4.75 ERA and a 6.70 xERA through 47.1 innings and has been a letdown as the no. 1 starter for Toronto. The Blue Jays have lost 3 of Berrios’ last 4 starts and although he has been better in his recent starts, he’s due for negative regression. The difference of almost 2 runs from his ERA to xERA indicates that Berrios has been getting lucky and that he is due for several poor outings in his future.

So for myself, a Jays fan, it doesn’t get any better knowing Berrios struggles mightily on the road since coming North, and that’s where he’ll be pitching today —— Berrios has a 6.43 road ERA with four home runs in 21 innings in four starts while firing a 3.15 ERA with two home runs in 20 innings across three starts at home this season.

And contrary to Berrios, Patrick Sandoval is building off his stellar 2021 season. The lefty made a name for himself last season with a 3.62 ERA and a 25.9% strikeout rate as he cemented his role in the Angels’ starting rotation. This season, Sandoval has surpassed all expectations with a 1.78 ERA.

So with two teams loaded with offensive talent, such a stark difference in pitching should make the difference.

 

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Cubs vs Brewers

Play —— Brewers ML -115
While many might be scared away by the CHAOS surrounding this day/night doubleheader between the Cubs/Brewers —- I find myself LOVING the Brewers to get it done in the matinee. Because we got a pair of prospects taking the bump for each team, and having read an hour's worth of prospect talk, I feel comfortable saying the kid the Brewers’ have going is the better of the two. Ethan Small will be making his MLB debut for Milwaukee today in Chicago, and the big lefty can FAN batters at the triple-A level, to say the least —- sporting 48 k’s in 38.1 innings pitched to go with his dazzling 1.88 ERA. This will be of particular importance today at Wrigley with the win blowing AGGRESSIVELY out to left-center, where missing bats is of the utmost importance.

His opponent on the other side of the pitching battle will be Matt Swarmer, who himself will be making his MLB debut this afternoon, after already spending half-decade pitching in the minors. It’s not been an easy road for Swarmer, but the dude has figured it out a bit this year, posting a 2.08 ERA in 39 innings for the Iowa Cubs at the AAA level, which has put him in the position to finally make his big league debut today for the injured Wade Miley. And as much as I want to cheer for the 28-year-old rookie, the Cubs are just not any good.

Their 7-15 record at Wrigley ain’t something the home faithful will be too happy about, and unfortunately for Chicago, I think we might see it worse to 7-16 today against the Brewers.

 

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POTD Record 4-4

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Coochie vs The Bookie | DaCoochieCoo | Substack

Daily Plays and Betting Tips from the Danny Ocean of Sports Handicapping. Click to read Coochie vs The Bookie, by DaCoochieCoo, a Substack publication with hundreds of subscribers.

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Nationals vs Royals
Play —- Under 9.5 -115
The Kansas City Royals enter into Tuesday’s game in Cleveland with the Guardians having the worst run differential in the Bigs at -68 and will look to starting pitcher Daniel Lynch to get things trending in the right direction. And maybe Lynch is the guy that could do it, because he has surrendered just one home run in his last seven starts, spanning 34 innings with a 2.91 ERA and .227 opponent batting average in this span. Unfortunately for Daniel, the lineup backing him up has been far from stellar, averaging 3.8 runs per game, which ranks 25th in the league with 0.75 home runs per game, which is 26th among MLB teams. He’s really gonna have to have it DEALING out there on the rubber to pick up a W.

On the other side is Guardians pitcher Cal Quantrill, who has allowed three runs or fewer in 23 of his last 25 pitching appearances and in 28 total pitching appearances at Progressive Field, 18 of which are starts, and has a lifetime 5-0 record and 2.51 ERA. Behind him, the Guardians are sixth among MLB teams in ERA and with the Guardians hitting the second-fewest home runs at home this season with just over 0.5 per game, runs will be at a premium in Cleveland on Tuesday --- and that's why I'm all over this UNDER.

 

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POTD --- 4-5

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Coochie vs The Bookie | DaCoochieCoo | Substack

Daily Plays and Betting Tips from the Danny Ocean of Sports Handicapping. Click to read Coochie vs The Bookie, by DaCoochieCoo, a Substack publication with hundreds of subscribers.

coochievsbookie.substack.com

Rays vs Rangers
Play —— Rays ML (-125)

The Tampa Bay Rays have received a rude greeting to Texas with losses in the first two games of their series against the Rangers, NOT EXACTLY SOUTHERN HOSPITALITY!

Regardless, the Rays will turn to their converted starter to get things back on track. Wednesday’s starter, Jeffrey Springs, began the season in the bullpen but has now made five starts and had his longest appearance of the season his last time out, six innings against the New York Yankees. So far so good for Springs! This season the guy has a 1.62 ERA overall, with a 2.35 ERA in his five starts, issuing zero walks in four of his five starts and allowing opponents to hit .174 off of him this season. COOCHIE LIKEY.

He’ll be going up against The Rangers squad who are 21st in the league in batting average and just 6.7% of their hits are for extra bases, which is 25th in the league. It ain’t the Yankees offense of the early 2000s out there, to say the least!

On the opposite side of the diamond Texas will send off-season acquisition Jon Gray to start on Wednesday, who has a lifetime of 4.67 ERA away from Coors Field and has allowed at least 8.5 hits per nine innings in all eight of his seasons in the MLB.

So with the Rays having allowed three runs or fewer in 12 of their last 18 games and with the Rays eighth in the league in bullpen ERA, Tampa Bay will hold down the Rangers on Wednesday and managed to scrape together enough runs off Gray/Rangers pen to come away with a Win.