Coochie vs The Bookie

[dacoochiebets]

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Daily Plays and Betting Tips from the Danny Ocean of Sports Handicapping. Click to read Coochie vs The Bookie, by DaCoochieCoo, a Substack publication with hundreds of subscribers.

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YTD Record ---- YTD Record —— 341-334-36 (+23.26 Units)​

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Xavier Musketeers vs Texas A&M Aggies​

Play —— Xavier Musketeers with the Points

Look sometimes in sports handicapping you gotta recognize that maybe you’ve been on the wrong side of a side and adjust accordingly. Well, this isn’t one of those spots for me —- as I’m going to fade A&M again despite them showing me the woodshed against Wazzou.

I’m not going to lie; I want desperately to get aboard the Buzz Williams train. This A&M team has taken it personally they were left out of the tournament and have been on an absolute tear; finding themselves seeming incapable of missing from the land beyond (61% in the last 4 NIT Games), while their swarming pressure defenses forces the opposition into turnovers galore. To put it simply they are just WAXING the opposition in most games.

I just don’t see it happening against the Musketeers whose offense is consistently performing, notching at least 72 points in six straight games. This level of offensive output and efficiency is one that A&M will struggle to match, with their ranking being 150th in the country in terms of offensive efficiency. Beyond that, there should be lots of second chances for Xavier to utilize that advantage on the glass with Texas A&M ranked 337th in the country in defensive rebound rate, allowing opponents to get an offensive rebound on 31.3% of their missed shots.

Moreover, the Musketeers don’t turn over the ball, as they are top 50 in the fewest turnovers per possession. The formula just isn’t there for this one to be a blow-out in favor of A&M, and with the Aggies’ struggles from the FT being a season-long trend; I just can’t get behind laying 4.5 against a very sound Xavier team since the coaching change.

NOTE: WAIT FOR FURTHER LINE MOVEMENT. EVERYONE LOVES A&M + EVERY 1/2 POINT XAVIER GETS IS HUGE.​

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Fresno St Bulldogs vs Coastal Carolina Chanticleers​

Play —— Fresno State -3

There is only one team in this game with a top 40 side of the ball in terms of efficiency and a legit NBA recruit and it ain’t Coastal Carolina. Fresno State falls nicely into a bucket of plays I’ve been targeting all year in:

• They’ve got the best player in the game. (Orlando Robinson)
• They’ve got the better defense. (Top 40 Adjusted)
• They shoot foul shots better.
• They turn the ball over less. (Coastal 307th Turnover %)

The one place area in which Fresno State can struggle is three-point shooting, but with Coastal Carolina struggling needed consecutive buzzer-beaters to advance last time around —- I’m not overly concerned it’ll be an issue in this one.

BullDogs -3.