Coochie vs The Bookie ---- Tennis Angle

[dacoochiebets]

Peniston vs Cerundolo (ATP London)
​

Play Peniston Handicap -1.5 Games (-140)

Peniston before this tournament was mostly a challenger-level player, though he’s always been known as a solid one on the faster surfaces —— and this year he's doing great on Grass with a record of 5 wins in 7 matches. In the last round, he managed to pick up a very impressive win against Ruud, besting him in straight sets. And while the Norweigan might not be at his best on the slick grass courts, the kid is still very solid on the hard courts. There’s really no denying it was a big-time win for Peniston, and doing it sets him up in a favorable match-up in Round 2.

Because the man across the net is Cerundolo, and the Argentian is very much a clay-court specialist. When one looks at Cerundolo's career —— he’s played around 300 Clay matches and only 30 matches on hard, indoor, and grass combined, so to say he might be a little uneasy on different surfaces would be a WILD understatement. The guy got a very fortunate first-round draw in Martinez, and I just have very little faith in Cerundolo’s grass-court prowess.

So I’m gonna put my money on the “hometown” kid to pull it off in this match-up —— the crowd should be on his side, and buoyed by their cheers I think his lefthand forehand causes major issues for Cerundolo. Pair that with a very respectable serve, I see green dollars in our future to match the courts.



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[dacoochiebets]

Ons Jabeur vs Belinda Bencic

Play —— Over 2.5 Sets (+140)

Jabeur really continues to impress me, and if I’m honest I was pretty surprised to see that she handled Coco fairly easily in her semi-final matchup with the American, and in her first grass-court tournament, she’s looking to make it her second victory on the year(and the 3rd of her career) today in Berlin.

What’s clear is that Jabeur’s game suits the grass well —- she hits her spots on serve, leading to plenty of free points and short balls, and the Tunisian controls the baseline very well with her big, accurate forehand. When you pair those two strengths with her slicing backhand that keeps the ball out of the opponent’s strike zone, it just makes for a very challenging match for anyone on tour(Not Named Swiatek).

That being said the woman across the net from her in the Final is no slouch, and has made a real point this week of being in attack mode on the return. And it’s this mindset that allowed Bencic to generate 19 break points in her the lat match vs Sakkari. Beyond that though, none of Bencic’s opponents in Berlin won more than 50% of their second serves against the Swiss’ return game, and Bencic has generated 50 break-point chances during her four matches in Berlin so far.

So with both players being in rather promising form, I think we see a real tight Final here in Berlin —- and I’m going to put my money down on that it goes 3 Sets (+140). With all of Bencic's matchups through the course of this week taking a deciding third set to complete, and with Jabeur’s history of dramatic finals, I’m happy to take the + money on a third set being played, rather than hit the Game Total Over with it being set at 21.5 (-130).

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[dacoochiebets]

Wimbledon Qualifier —— Lukas Rosol vs. Renzo Olivo (6AM EST) ​

Play —— Olivo ML +140

This is a little bit against the trends I’ve been following this week for the qualifiers, and that doesn’t make me full of glee, but the angle is just too damn juicy to avoid. That angle I speak of —- mobility, fitness, and general moxy, all weigh HEAVILY towards Olivo. The grinding play style he employs isn’t one I’m super keen to back on the grass, and his lack of power game would typically give me serious concern —— but the Argentine is a GAMER, with a SILKY drop shot. The likes of which are tough to run down for even the most agile men on tour.

So for a guy like Rosol who isn’t the slickest of movers, or the strongest of athletes, the style of play Olivo uses is going to make the Czech play will be taxing and testing. The 36-year-old isn’t aided by the change to 5 sets, and when I factor in his poor form of late (not winning in his last 5 matches prior to the qualifier), as well as his uninspiring wins so far at the qualifier, I’m CHARGED up to fade Rosol.

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[dacoochiebets]

Christian Harrison vs Oscar Otte
1st Set over 10.5 Games (+190)
In another match featuring the Bayou Boy, Christian Harrison, I’m looking to continue cashing tickets on the American —- but today’s match feels like a LARGE hill to climb because the big-serving Oscar Otte is a tough second-round match-up for anyone in the tournament. His serve is hard to see let alone return, but for the BUSINESS he usually gives his opponents in service games, he ain’t exactly a return specialist.

Otte has managed to generate the break of his opponent’s serve just under 10% of the time this grass season, and because of this, he has played many tight sets and matches. So while the game spread does look TANTALIZING —- Harrison’s lingering plantar fasciitis gives me serious concern for this matching going over the number.

THAT BEING SAID —- +190 for a 7-6 or 7-5 end to set 1 is the kinda thing I can get behind. LET US RIDE HARRISON BB.

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[dacoochiebets]

Look I won't lie to you --- it wasn't the best look yesterday having Harrison retire after 4 games against Otte. Made the Over 10.5 games a bad bet at +10000000000.

THAT SAID WE REBOUND TODAY WITH A LITTLE WTA PARLAY.

Sara Sorribes Tormo ML x Magdalena Frech ML (+100)

While it feels as if underdogs have been getting the job done at an alarming rate, both against the spread, and outright, so far through 2 days at Wimbledon. Perhaps that is colored by the matches I’ve watched —— but favorites haven’t been worth the squeeze in the early going of this Grand Slam.



Sorribes Tormo vs Harmony Tan

There were concerns about whether Sara Sorribes Tormo was physically fit for Wimbledon after playing just two matches since returning from an injury, but any concerns about the Spaniards’ health were quickly put to bed in the first round. After crushing American Christina McHale in the first round, I’m very much now confident she’ll have her usual level of energy/movement.

This movement and effort is a crucial part of her game, which is very defensive in nature —- and almost always features plenty of heavy topspin. So although it might appear her style wouldn’t lend itself well to grass, Tormo has actually found a fair amount of success over the past few years going 16-9.

Magdalena Frech vs. Anna Karolina Schmiedlova

Another favorite with a strong stylistic matchup edge is Frech. The Polish native has a decent first serve that plays up in pace on the quick courts, and a remarkably consistent game from the baseline centered around an incredible backhand slice and pin-point forehand. It's no surprise then that she’s managed to accumulate a very impressive 29-17 career record to this point on grass —- and fresh off of a big-time upset of Camilla Giorgi, I like her to move on to the third round.

Because across the court from Frech is Anna Karolina Schmiedlova, who is just as erratic as Giorgi, without nearly as much power. Moreover, she really struggles with the slow skidding bounces that often come into play on grass --- and well that’s not a combination that’ll go over well against the Pole. Whose aforementioned slicing abilities are going to frustrate her opponent greatly if she’s unwilling to be patient from the baseline. And honestly, I’ve not seen anything that to tell me the Slovakian has the patience or fitness to stay the course for three sets against Frech.

 

[dacoochiebets]

ATP Washington ——- Andy Murray vs Mikael Ymer
​

Under 21.5 Games (-105)

I’m going to look to keep it short and sweet on this one; when Murray is well rested the man is still very good. Murray has won the first match of each of the last 5 tournaments he’s played all in straight sets. So while his legs may not have the juice they used, his game is still crisp. Across the court from him is a guy in Mikael Ymer, who struggles greatly with consistency, as to be expected in such a young player on tour dealing with the rigers of a weekly schedule. That said, the play here is on Murray pretty clearly.

So you look at the board and assses the options; Alternative bets could be 2:0 Murray or -3.5 games, but I prefer the under 21.5 Games here at the reduced juice (-105), compared to the Murray -3.5 games line (set at -130).

I think Murray wins this in 2 sets, but it is tennis, and on the odd chance Ymer manages to play his peak game for 2 1/2 hours —- we cash that side too.

 

[dacoochiebets]

F. Cerundolo vs K. Khachanov —— ATP Masters Montreal
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Cerundolo ML +170

Ranked #25 and #24 in the world, respectively, not much separates Francisco Cerundolo and Karen Khachanov. Cerundolo, who is typically thought of as a bit of a clay-court ringer, has had an interesting hard-court swing this season. The 23-year-old had an incredible semifinal run at the Miami Masters but is just 2-4 in other hard court tournaments since then. That said, it’s been a great season for the Argentine who clearly now believes he’s got the ability to contend on any surface —- and is paying like it now.

Khachanov, on the other hand, prefers hard courts and has had some good results in North America in the past. That being said, with Cerundolo’s current form and Khachanov’s proclivity to the fast surface, not much separates these two. I slightly favor Cerundolo who has been playing with great confidence this season and has the rally tolerance to stand strong against the powerful ground game of Khachanov.