Wolves @ Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace ML +130No Goals First Half +150
Sometimes the enemy bookmakers seemingly deliver us a gift and in those cases, we mustn’t overthink it —- Crystal Palace is a better team and this game is being played at Selhurst Lane, so getting them at +120 or above is a line too good to pass up upon.
And that’s because in my estimation the Eagles are being undervalued in the market because of a tough opening schedule of games that has drastically tilted some important statistical categories into ugly territories. Starting a season by playing Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester City, Chelsea, and Newcastle in 5 of their first 8 games makes for a tough run of weeks—- and as one might expect, the numbers aren’t exactly flattering. A negative xGDiff (-3.9), big scoring chances allowed in the bottom 5 of the league (24), and expected goals surrendered (13.6) right there beside it don’t typically make for a team worth backing. So why am I so high on the Eagles?
Well, part of it has to do with the fact they pretty handily dispatch the two teams they played this year at home who in my estimation more closely resemble Wolves than City. Palace beat Aston Villa and Leeds United, and in those games, the Eagles finished with a +1.6 xGDiff and created eight big scoring chances.
And the second part of this one is —- Wolves’ are in serious fucking trouble and very well might find themselves in the Championship if things don’t resolve themselves quickly here. Their attack has been entirely uninspiring again this year; with Bruno Large’s team toward the bottom of the English top flight in multiple attacking categories again to start the season; including xG (9.2), shots on target per match (2.7) and goals per shot (0.03). All in all those numbers have amounted to just 4 goals through 15 hours of play this season for Wolves —- rather pitiful that, and the reality is this team just doesn’t create enough going forward to trouble Vierra’s side in my estimation.
SO LET'S FLY LIKE (with) THE EAGLES —— into the evening!
In 15 of Wolves’ last 21 road fixtures the score has been 0-0 at the half. In 11 of Palace’s last 17 fixtures in all competitions, the halftime score has been 0-0.
