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Work Weeks Almost Over But The Betting Never Ends
My picks and analysis for Thursday, April 14th, 2022.
coochievsbookie.substack.com
Barcelona vs Frankfurt
Barcelona -300\Frankfurt +600\ Over/Under 3Xavi’s done an absolutely brilliant job at rehabilitating a season that seemed destined for doom and dread for Barcelona. Barcelona who had been ousted from both the Champions League, as well having no real opportunity at the La Liga crown come early January, have actually managed to play their best football of the season of late —— and prior to a disappointing performance in Germany last week, seemed like a class above the remaining competition in the Europa League.
So while some might be concerned about Barcelona’s ability to keep a clean sheet in this match —- I feel very much confident that Barcelona wins at nil against a Frankfurt team that truly lacks the cutting edge necessary to compete at the highest level of the Bundesliga —— so with a trip to Barcelona on the docket, I think the moment proves too much for this Frankfurt side.
Early in the week, I felt like there was value on Barcelona -1.5 when it was + money —- but now that it’s closer to -110 I really can’t in good conscious advise that play, ESPECIALLY WITH Barcelona To Win at Nil at +140.
Play —- Barcelona To Win at Nil (+140)
Lyon vs West Ham
Lyon +114\ West Ham +212\ Over/Under 2.5Lyon is about as Jekyll and Hyde as a team can come in the world of football —- having gone through all of the Europa League competition without a defeat, while toiling away in Ligue One. How could it be so opposite, and while I can’t quite figure it out myself, I’ve come to accept it — Lyon is a good team when playing European sides, and a dreadful team while playing their French counterparts.
But good for Lyon doesn’t mean creative, or particularly adventurous, and throughout the competition, the French side has often relied on moments of individual brilliance, or individual error to power their attacks —- of their 9 games played without a defeat they’ve lost 6 of them on xG. And while this wasn’t the case in their 1-1 draw with West Ham last week, I do expect Lyon to struggle massively to create against West Ham’s well-drilled defense.
So to me this game comes down to do I believe either team will make a mistake, or which is more likely to have a moment of brilliance —- and while I back myself to handicap a coin flip as well as anyone in the world —- I’d like to avoid it when I can. With that being said though, I do think we see a very stale first 45 minutes in which both teams lack the willingness to forward necessary to score. So I'm going to play that in a couple of ways;
Plays:
First Half Under .5 (+75)
First Half Draw (+120)
