converting money lines to probabilities

[dlw]

If the money line is -168 and +158. How do I convert these into probabilities.

Thanks

 

[oscar]

Take the price, then divide it by the sum of that price plus 100.

150 divided by 250 equals .600, which is 60%
200 divided by 300 equals .667, which is 66.7%

110…52.4%
120…54.5%
130…56.5%
140…58.3%
150…60.0%
160…61.5%
170…63.0%
180…64.2%
190…65.5%
200…66.7%
210…66.7%
220…68.8%
230…69.7%
240…70.6%
250…71.4%
300…75.0%

hope that helps

 

[dlw]

Oscar, that helps.
So, is this correct using my numbers?

The favorite team is -168 which is 168/268 = 0.6268

The underdog team is +158 which is 158/258 = 0.6124. And, then we take (1 - .6124)= 0.3876 since the underdog has less then a 50% chance of winning.

Also, If I want to bet on the moneyline for the NFL is there also a spread involved plus the moneyline?

thanks

 

[WildBill]

You can save yourself a step in the math. When a team is a dog, the formula is: 100/(100 + Money Line). In this case 100/258=38.76%

 

[Java]

Not quite right...
You want to use the average line (without the juice) to figure out the probability.
The line -110 and -110 averages out to an even line with no juice

-168 and +158 is really -163 with 5-cents juice on each side (for total of 10-cents)

163/263 = 0.61977 = 61.977 % of favorite winning
= 38.023 % of dog winning
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total 100 %