IS ANYONE WINNING MONEY? NOT ME YET BUT FORTUNES WILL CHANGE AS I LIKE ALOT OF GAMES ON THE CARD. HOPEFULLY THIS WEEK WE WILL NOT BE VICTUM TO THE TUNRNOVER BUG AND COME OUT AHEAD. AS ALWAYS I PLAY ALL GAMES AT $100/UNIT SO ADJUST THE RATING ACCORDING TO HOW YOU BET. GOOD LUCK IF YOU PLAY!
8* MY TOP PLAY...VERY RARE (23-8 ) LAST YEAR IN FOOTBALL (74%)
6-7* HIGH RATED SELECTION ONLY WHEN ALOT OF GAMES ON THE CARD TO CHOSE FROM (WELL OVER 60%)
5* EXCEPTIONAL PLAY USUALLY HIGHEST WHEN ONLY A FEW GAMES
4* VERY STRONG SELECTION
3* STRONG SELECTION
2* PROBABLE COVER (MOST COMMON RATING)
1* A GAME THAT SHOULD COVER
OPINION PLAY: GAME THAT I THINK MAY WIN BUT OFTEN JUST TO WATCH A GAME OR A LEAN USUALLY 1/2 A UNIT.
Season Record: College 14-15 48.3% (-7.70) -$770
Season Record: NFL 6-7 46.6% (-1.90) -$190
SUMMARY OF PLAYS NCAA FOOTBALL:
(8*) UNCONFIRMED WILL BE EMAILED TO CLIENTS 9/19
(6*) UNCONFIRMED WILL BE EMAILED TO CLIENTS 9/19
(5*) NEXT UPDATE
(5*) NEXT UPDATE
(2*) MARYLAND/WEST VIRGINIA UNDER 47 ADDED
(2*) VANDERBILT +13 ADDED
(1*) MISSOURI -20 ADDED Possible Upgrade
(1*) CINCINNATI -14 Possible Upgrade
(1*) OKLAHOMA -18
(1*) HAWAII PICK'EM
*OPINION; NEVADA -1.5
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W VIRGINIA (1 - 2) at MARYLAND (1 - 2)
Week 4 Saturday, 9/20/2003 6:00 PM
311 W VIRGINIA 47
312 MARYLAND -9
Detailed Analysis
A couple of teams trying to even their season records at two games apiece meet Saturday evening at Byrd Stadium in College Park, when the Maryland Terrapins face off against the Mountaineers of West Virginia in a non conference showdown. Good match-up, as the Big East meets the ACC. West Virginia (1-2) has had a tough schedule and comes in after a 15-13 home loss to Cincinnati. Might not be a lot of points this game, as both coaches like to run the football, so it could be a grind-it-out, eat-the-clock contest. The Mountaineers have experienced both ends of the emotional spectrum already in 2003, beating up on the East Carolina Pirates in their second game (48-7) on the road, sandwiched around hard-fought losses to the Wisconsin Badgers at home in the opener (24-17) and the Cincinnati Bearcats last Saturday afternoon (15-13). As agonizing as the season has already been for WVU, at least they didn't fall to a mid-major in the season opener after being nationally ranked. That was the case for the Terps who, went from the national spotlight to ACC laughing stock after getting beaten by the No. Illinois Huskies in DeKalb back on August 28, by a final of 20-13. After that it didn't get any easier for Maryland, which opened its conference schedule with a disheartening 35-10 setback versus Florida State on the road. Last week the Terps took full advantage of a I-AA school, blowing out the Bulldogs of The Citadel, 61-0. WVU led 19-18-2 prior to the meeting last season in Morgantown, when the Terrapins ran away with a 48-17 victory.
Rasheed Marshall passed for a couple of touchdowns, from 11 and 48 yards on Saturday, but the Mountaineers simply gave up too much ground to Cincinnati in a two-point loss. Marshall finished the day 10-of-30 for 125 yards and a pair of interceptions as well. ON 11 rushing attempts Marshall also posted 36 yards on the ground, second only to Quincy Wilson to came away with 39 yards on 18 carries. As a team the Mountaineers, one of the top rushing teams in the entire nation a season ago, racked up a mere 118 yards on 40 attempts. Even with the disappointing output coming out of the backfield the squad is still averaging 213.7 ypg rushing after three contests. And even though the passing attack has been held to 152.3 ypg, it has still accounted for six touchdowns thus far, one more than ball carriers. The team has struggled to sustain drives, converting just 29 percent on third down and missing on all five of its fourth-down attempts. Wilson, who is averaging 95 ypg rushing, has accounted for three scores already, trying to fill the shoes of the departed Avon Cobourne.
The West Virginia defense did well to hold the Bearcats in check last weekend, limiting them to just one trip to the end zone and three field goals. Unfortunately it was one of the kicks that landed the Mountaineers in the loss column. Quarterback Gino Guidugli was permitted to hit 17-of-35 pass attempts for 146 yards and a score, but when WVU did manage to get to him, they limited the signal-caller to just 17 rushing yards on 11 attempts. Getting a chance to face off against a couple of Conference-USA teams in Cincy and East Carolina, the Mountaineers strengthened their scoring defense, which is limiting opponents to 15.3 ppg at this juncture. Grant Wiley has again taken the lead on the defense, generating a team-best 42 tackles, including 24 solo, not to mention five forced fumbles. Mike Lorello has matched Wiley's solo tackle total, making 34 overall, and he also leads the unit with eight tackles for loss. Further down the list is Earnest Hunter who has made two of his seven stops against opposing quarterbacks.
When a team shuts out another school it's assumed that the defense played a big part in the triumph, and that was certainly the case against the Bulldogs last weekend. The Terps held The Citadel to just 90 yards rushing on 31 attempts and an even more impressive 47 yards on 3-of-20 passing. While Maryland was averaging just over seven yards per play, the Bulldogs were coming up with less than three yards, to be generous. With the game so far out of reach so quickly, several players managed to get their names into the score books, including D'Qwell Jackson who led the Terps with six tackles on the day. Kevin Eli finished with just four stops, but was credited with one sack. Even with having to play the Seminoles already this year, Maryland has kept its yards allowed to under 300 on the average, but squads have still been able to convert 41 percent of their third down plays. Jackson is at the top of the tackle chart with 33 to go along with his one interception, one forced fumble and blocked kick. With just seven total tackles to his credit, Eli is tied for the team lead in both TFL (three) and sacks (two). Getting a chance to play against your old mates is certainly something that every player enjoys if they get the opportunity. Last season McBrien scored one touchdown on the ground and tallied another through the air in his return to Morgantown. Now, having gotten time to rest against the Bulldogs last weekend, he's sure to be ready to battle the Mountaineers.
In this game, look for West Virginia to run behind QB Rasheed Marshall and RB Quincy Wilson, while Maryland will try and muster some offense against a good team, after scoring just 13 to Northern Illinois and 10 to Florida State (both losses). Maryland is 14-1 SU/11-2 ATS at home since Ralph Friedgen showed up, but West Virginia has the talent to keep this a low scoring game. Although I belive Maryland will not only win the game and cover ATS...go with the under as the best total on the board!
Projected Score: Maryland 24, W Virginia 17
PLAY 2* UNITS ON MARYLAND/WEST VIRGINIA UNDER 47
VANDERBILT (1 - 2) at TCU (2 - 0)
Week 4 Saturday, 9/20/2003 7:00 PM
369 VANDERBILT
370 TCU -13
Detailed Analysis
Texas Christian struggled to victories in its first two games of the season. To earn their third in a row, they'll have to win without Ricky Madison. The 20th-ranked Horned Frogs (2-0, 1-0 Conference USA) will be without their top running back when they return after a week off to face Vanderbilt on Saturday at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Madison will miss the rest of the season after undergoing surgery last Thursday to repair a torn knee ligament. He was hurt in the first quarter of TCU's 17-3 win over Navy on Sept. 6 when he planted his right leg on a running play and it twisted awkwardly. He returned to the game in the second quarter, but left in obvious pain after just two more carries. The loss could be a major blow to the Horned Frogs, as Madison had 206 total yards in the season-opening 38-35 win at Tulane on Sept. 1. He had 115 yards rushing and caught three passes for 91 yards, including an 80-yard touchdown, in that contest. "Ricky was not only a great football player, but a great leader for this team," coach Gary Patterson said. "It's a shame because he's a senior who has done everything right on the field, in the weight room and in the classroom. I'm very disappointed for Ricky." Without Madison, even more pressure will fall on sophomore quarterback Tye Gunn, who has managed to lead his team to a pair of close victories. TCU nearly blew a 24-point lead against Tulane before Gunn led them to a crucial fourth-quarter touchdown. Against Navy, the Horned Frogs trailed 3-0 at halftime before Gunn directed them to scores on their first two drives after the break. TCU had been favored by three touchdowns in the game. Gunn completed 14 of 20 passes for 173 yards in improving to 6-0 as a starter. The Frogs had averaged 40 points a game in the sophomore quarterback's first five starts. TCU is hoping its running game won't suffer too badly without Madison. Sophomore Lonta Hobbs, who rushed for 1,029 yards in eight games last season and has 141 yards and four TDs in two games this season, will take over as the Frogs' starting tailback.
Vanderbilt (1-2, 0-2 SEC) is coming off a demoralizing 45-7 home loss to Auburn on Saturday. The Tigers scored 17 points in the second quarter and were never threatened by the overmatched Commodores, losers of 19 straight SEC games since November 2000 and 28 of their last 29. "We couldn't get our offense going," Vandy coach Bobby Johnson said. "And our defense was on the field too much. That's due to turning the ball over to Auburn too many times. It seemed like we were punting the ball on every other down." They should be able to hang better with the Frogs. Last week they caught a mean spirited Tiger by the tail. But there is a big difference between those Tigers and this weeks Frogs. Take the points and look for a low scoring defensive game.
Projected Score: TCU 21, Vanderbilt 14
PLAY 2* UNITS ON VANDERBILT +13
MIDDLE TENN ST (0 - 3) at MISSOURI (3 - 0)
Week 4 Saturday, 9/20/2003 2:00 PM
385 MIDDLE TENN ST
386 MISSOURI -20
Detailed Analysis
Off to its best start since 1981, Missouri looks to prove worthy of its first AP Top 25 ranking in five years in Saturday's match-up against winless Middle Tennessee State. Missouri (3-0) is coming off its first shutout victory in 58 games, a 37-0 rout of Eastern Illinois last Saturday. That win sprung the Tigers into the AP poll at No. 23, their first appearance since the end of the 1998 season. This start, the program's best since opening 5-0 in 1981, is particularly surprising considering Missouri has finished fifth in the Big 12's six-team North Division each of the last two seasons. "It's important to have a quick start. There were some things we wanted to accomplish ... teach our players how to win," said third-year coach Gary Pinkel. This Missouri team is trying to become the 12th in the program's 112-year history to win its first four games. Only five have done it since 1924. A big reason for the Tigers' turnaround is a defensive unit which is giving up just 7.3 points per game good for fourth in the country. The run defense is allowing an average of 78.3 yards ranked 20th nationally and has yet to surrender a rushing touchdown after allowing 22 in 2002. Senior cornerback Michael Harden is among the leaders of that unit. He had five tackles, two pass breakups, an interception and a forced fumble in last week's win. Harden and the Tigers defense now face a team which has yet to score 20 points in any game this season.
Middle Tennessee (0-3) is coming off a 37-14 loss at Clemson, one week after putting up a respectable fight in a 29-10 defeat to No. 7 Georgia. One player Missouri will watch carefully is Andrico Hines, the versatile QB who is also a threat to run. He's completed 63.5 percent of his passes and has not been intercepted in 87 pass attempts this season. Hines' counterpart, the Tigers' Brad Smith, is the Big 12 leader with a 72.1 completion percentage after going 26-of-33 for a season-high 236 yards with two touchdowns in last week's win. Smith also ranks 10th in the Big 12 with 72.7 rushing yards per game.
Let's see, Missouri (3-0 SU) is coming off a 37-0 victory over Division I-AA E. Illinois, recording its first shutout in over five years. Defensive end Brian Smith caused a fumble and had one of the four sacks in the route for the Tigers. Missouri had 509 yards of total offense and made E. Illinois fumble away three of its seven first-half possessions. That defense should be plenty for a Blue Raiders team that is coming off a 37-14 loss to Clemson and is 0-3 to start the season. The Blue Raiders were 1-6 SU on the road last season (3-4 ATS) and just 1-5 SU as the dog (3-3 ATS). Missouri should have their way in this one.
Projected Score: Missouri 40, Mid Tenn St 10
PLAY 1* UNIT ON MISSOURI -20 POSSIBLE UPGRADE
TEMPLE (0 - 2) at CINCINNATI (2 - 0)
Week 4 Saturday, 9/20/2003 7:00 PM
357 TEMPLE
358 CINCINNATI -14
Detailed Analysis
The Temple Owls head west to Ohio to clash with the Cincinnati Bearcats in non-conference action this weekend. This will be the 14th meeting between the two schools, with UC dominating things to date. The Bearcats defeated Temple, 35-22, last season at Franklin Field in the first meeting between the two teams since 1985. The two teams have taken different paths to begin the 2003 season. The Owls are winless, losing a close battle with theNittany Lions of Penn State, 23-10. Then the squad lost a heartbreaker against I-AA foe Villanova, 23-20, in overtime. The team was off last week, giving them a chance to regroup after the hard fought battle against Villanova. The Bearcats have begun their season in better form, winning their first two games. The team opened with a dominating 40-3 victory over East Carolina. The squad clashed with the Mountaineers of West Virginia last week and for the first time in 14 meetings, the Bearcats came out on top, 15-13. If Cincinnati defeats Temple it would be the best start to a season since 1985. A win against Temple would give coach Rick Minter his 55th at Cincinnati, making him the winningest coach in school history.
Despite losing to Penn State in the season opener, Temple's offensive unit was extremely impressive, racking up a total of 357 yards against the daunting Penn State defense. Against Villanova the squad posted 358 total yards in the overtime loss. Makonnen Fenton, who is sidelined indefinitely with a rib injury, played extremely well against the Lions, rushing for 118 yards on 23 carries. However, against the Wildcats Fenton was shut down as he racked up only 33 yards on 14 attempts, but he did score one touchdown. Quarterback Mike McGann supplied the offense for the team against 'Nova, completing 16-of-26 pass attempts for 229 yards, while throwing for one score. Receivers Phil Goodman and Zamir Abdul-Hakim Cobb reaped the benefits of McGann's quality performance. Goodman led the receiving corps with eight receptions for 139 yards, while Cobb also recorded eight catches for 111 yards, plus added a touchdown. Cobb and Goodman became the first receivers at Temple to gain over 100-yards in the same game since 1994 when Van Johnson recorded 103 yards and Marc Baxter posted 102 yards against Pittsburgh. After two games, Cobb leads the squad with 14 receptions for 216 yards, plus his one touchdown. His 108 yards per game ranks him second in the Big East and 15th in the nation. Against Penn St, the Owls completely shut down QB Zack Mills, allowing him to connect on only 7-of-17 pass attempts for 79 yards, while allowing just one score and coming up with an interception. However, Michael Robinson led the Penn State rushing attack with 82 yards on eight carries, while overall the Lions gained 231 yards on the ground. The Temple defensive unit pulled a role reversal against Villanova, however, shutting down the Wildcat rushing game in allowing only 59 yards on 28 carries. Unfortunately, the Owl secondary was torched for 348 yards and two scores through the air. Linebacker Rian Wallace has stepped up his performance tremendously since last season. Wallace finished '02 with 76 tackles, but this year he leads the defense with 22 stops after the first two games.
The loss of DeMarco McCleskey, the number two all-time running back in Bearcat history, should have caused a major drop off in production this season, but that is simply not the case. After two games, the Bearcats are ranked seventh in the nation in averaging 263 rushing yards per game. Leading the way is junior Richard Hall who is averaging 101 yards per game. In the season opener, the 'Cats ran all over East Carolina for 361 yards, and for the first time since November of 2001, the team had two running backs crack the century mark. Derrick Eddington carried the ball only 11 times, but recorded 138 yards, while Hall recorded 117. Hall was also extremely effective against West Virginia, racking up 85 yards on 18 carries while pacing all receivers with four catches for 48 yards. While the running game is causing problems for opposing defenses, quarterback Gino Guidugli is steadily climbing up the record charts at Cincinnati. Guidugli threw his 40th career touchdown pass against the Mountaineers, passing Dan McCoin for the most in Bearcat history. His 6,383 yards are the second-best in school history and by season's end he should own that record as well. The defense for Cincinnati has been nothing less than phenomenal. Opposing teams are averaging just 223 yards per game and only eight points per contest. The 223 yards allowed is the seventh lowest figure in the nation, while the eight points per game ranks sixth. The unit is 24th against the run and 10th overall in pass efficiency defense. Middle linebacker Jamar Enzor finished with eight tackles against WVU, giving him 13 total tackles this season. Defensive End Trent Cole leads the team with 18 stops and two sacks. The unit has been even stingier on third downs, as against East Carolina the squad allowed the Pirates to move the chains just twice on 15 tries. The unit enjoyed the same results against West Virginia, as the Mountaineers were successful on only 2-of-16 conversions attempts.
As you can see, the Bearcats are extremely talented on both sides of the football. Their rushing attack is nationally ranked as well is their defense, basically meaning a sub-par Temple team could have a lot of problems come Saturday night. Temple (0-2 SU, 1-0 ATS) has a decent passing offense behind QB Mike McGann, but the defense is very poor. Temple allowed Penn State 231 yards rushing and the ‘D’ gave up 348 passing yards in a 23-20 loss to Villanova. The Cincinnati Bearcats will be able to take advantage of this weak 'D' behind standout QB Gino Guidugli. The Bearcats are playing great (2-0 SU/ATS) with wins over East Carolina and a terrific 15-13 upset win at West Virginia last week (7-point road dog) where the defenses were outstanding. Cincinnati beat Temple 35-22 on the road last season and have the better team and are home this time.
Projected Score: Cincinnati 35, Temple 14
PLAY 1* UNIT ON CINCINNATI -14 POSSIBLE UPGRADE
UCLA (1 - 1) at OKLAHOMA (3 - 0)
Week 4 Saturday, 9/20/2003 3:30 PM
349 UCLA 46
350 OKLAHOMA -19
Detailed Analysis
Oklahoma plays its final non-conference tune up before beginning the Big 12 schedule when it hosts UCLA on Saturday. The top-ranked Sooners (3-0) looked extremely sharp in last Saturday's 52-28 rout of Fresno State. Oklahoma's offense scored touchdowns on all six of its first-half possessions en route to a 38-0 halftime lead. Jason White threw for 338 yards and tied a career high with 4 touchdown passes. "Things were clicking," White said. Through three games, White has completed 69 of 107 passes (64 percent) for 845 yards and nine touchdowns. He's only been intercepted once. The Sooners gained 556 yards of offense against Fresno State, one yard shy of tying the best offensive performance in Stoops' five seasons. Oklahoma may have a tougher time racking up the yards and points this week against UCLA (1-1), which beat Illinois 6-3 on Saturday.
UCLA, though, will need a much better offense performance against Oklahoma. The Bruins' Drew Olson completed just 11 of 31 passes for 94 yards with one interception against Illinois. His receivers didn't help much, however, dropping at least five passes, two of which could have been touchdowns. UCLA's offense has generated only 20 points, 25 first downs and 447 yards in two games. "That is the best defense I've ever seen," Olson said a day after watching Oklahoma on film for the first time. " ... They're awesome, they're so talented at every position." Olson's job may have gotten a little easier, as the Sooners' vaunted defense took a blow Saturday when linebacker Lance Mitchell tore a ligament in his left knee. Mitchell, a Butkus Award candidate, injured his ACL while making a tackle in the second quarter. Coach Bob Stoops said there's a "very slight" possibility that Mitchell might try to play through the injury, but it's more likely that he'll have surgery later this week. The 6-foot-3, 247-pound senior had 19 tackles in three games this season, a year after leading the nation's 10th-ranked defense in tackles (124), tackles for loss (19) and fumbles caused (4).
The Sooners are coming off a 52-28 stomping over Fresno State, in which they dominated every facet of the game. Oklahoma opened the game with a 38-point halftime lead and cruised the rest of the way. In the first half, Oklahoma had 370 yards and 22 first downs; Fresno State had 43 and two, also committing eight penalties for 80 yards. QB Jason White put on a clinic in the first half, completing 18-of-25 passes for 256 yards and touchdowns to three different receivers. In addition, Renaldo Works had 66 yards and two TDs on 13 carries. Oklahoma's daunting defense (which gave up less than two yards per play against the Bulldogs) also figures to give the Bruins (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) trouble, though the Sooners have been giving up more points with each succeeding game this season (3, 13, 28). UCLA is coming off its 500th victory against Illinois, 6-3 - a game that looked more like a baseball score. The Bruins have scored just 20 points total in two games this season and will need to score big and fast in this one to have any chance. While the Bruins did play well on the road last season (5-1 SU, 5-1 ATS) and as the dog (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) they will be up against an Oklahoma team that is polished on both sides of the field. The Sooners were a dominating 6-0 SU at home last season (4-2 ATS) and 11-2 SU as the favorite (7-6 ATS). Sooner QB White is in the zone, so look for UCLA's conservative offense to have trouble against the Sooners' great 'D' here and White to have plenty of red zone opportunities.
Projected Score: Oklahoma 38, UCLA 10
PLAY 1* UNIT ON OKLAHOMA -18
HAWAII (1 - 1) at UNLV (2 - 1)
Week 4 Friday, 9/19/2003 9:00 PM
305 HAWAII Pick
306 UNLV
Detailed Analysis
Don't read too much into the Rebel's upset victory last week as finally, the Rebels played a game where the opposition self-destructed. The UNLV offense looked mediocre at best, (187 total yards), but the Wisconsin Badgers turned the ball over five times (again, 5 times) leading to 20 of the Rebels 23 points. DB Jamaal Brimmer showed on national TV what we've known for a long time; he's NFL first round material if he hangs around Vegas for his senior season next year. Now the bad news. Hawaii comes to town off a horrible performance against USC. The 61-32 loss was a 3-3 game in the second quarter before Hawaii miscues and USC's top-5 talent combined for a blowout. But I suggest not to read too much into that tilt. Hawaii's complex scheme's will become a headache for UNLV to prepare for especially on a short week of practice. The Warriors are fringe top-25 material and will try to take out their frustrations against a Rebel team in Sin City. Last time that happened, UNLV fell 46-24 at Kansas. It may not be that bad this week but Hawaii is simply the better team. The Rebel offense gets a little predictable and boring for stretches of game time, whereas the Rainbows put it in the sky. This week it will be a neon sky.
Projected Score: Hawaii 36, UNLV 21
PLAY 1* UNIT ON HAWAII PICK'EM
NEVADA (1 - 1) at SAN JOSE ST (1 - 2)
Week 4 Thursday, 9/18/2003 9:00 PM
303 NEVADA Pick -1.5
304 SAN JOSE ST
Detailed Analysis
Nevada (1-1 SU, 1-0 ATS) opens WAC tournament play this week as it travels to neighboring California for a Thursday game with the San Jose Spartans. The main loss for the Pack this year is at QB, where the golden arm of departed senior Zack Threadgill will be most felt. Picking up the slack this season is Jeff Rowe and Andy Heiser. The two split time in the first game of the season with Heiser getting all the playing time against Oregon. Meanwhile, San Jose State (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) had last week off after losing to intrastate rival Stanford two weeks ago, 31-10. The Spartans jumped out to an early lead against the Cardinals, but for the second consecutive week were unable to score in the second half as Stanford rallied for the win. Nevada should come into this matchup with much more confidence than San Jose and while the score won’t be as big a blowout as last year, the Pack should prevail once again.
Projected Score: Nevada Reno 28, San Jose St 17
*OPINION PLAY ON NEVADA -1.5
8* MY TOP PLAY...VERY RARE (23-8 ) LAST YEAR IN FOOTBALL (74%)
6-7* HIGH RATED SELECTION ONLY WHEN ALOT OF GAMES ON THE CARD TO CHOSE FROM (WELL OVER 60%)
5* EXCEPTIONAL PLAY USUALLY HIGHEST WHEN ONLY A FEW GAMES
4* VERY STRONG SELECTION
3* STRONG SELECTION
2* PROBABLE COVER (MOST COMMON RATING)
1* A GAME THAT SHOULD COVER
OPINION PLAY: GAME THAT I THINK MAY WIN BUT OFTEN JUST TO WATCH A GAME OR A LEAN USUALLY 1/2 A UNIT.
Season Record: College 14-15 48.3% (-7.70) -$770
Season Record: NFL 6-7 46.6% (-1.90) -$190
SUMMARY OF PLAYS NCAA FOOTBALL:
(8*) UNCONFIRMED WILL BE EMAILED TO CLIENTS 9/19
(6*) UNCONFIRMED WILL BE EMAILED TO CLIENTS 9/19
(5*) NEXT UPDATE
(5*) NEXT UPDATE
(2*) MARYLAND/WEST VIRGINIA UNDER 47 ADDED
(2*) VANDERBILT +13 ADDED
(1*) MISSOURI -20 ADDED Possible Upgrade
(1*) CINCINNATI -14 Possible Upgrade
(1*) OKLAHOMA -18
(1*) HAWAII PICK'EM
*OPINION; NEVADA -1.5
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W VIRGINIA (1 - 2) at MARYLAND (1 - 2)
Week 4 Saturday, 9/20/2003 6:00 PM
311 W VIRGINIA 47
312 MARYLAND -9
Detailed Analysis
A couple of teams trying to even their season records at two games apiece meet Saturday evening at Byrd Stadium in College Park, when the Maryland Terrapins face off against the Mountaineers of West Virginia in a non conference showdown. Good match-up, as the Big East meets the ACC. West Virginia (1-2) has had a tough schedule and comes in after a 15-13 home loss to Cincinnati. Might not be a lot of points this game, as both coaches like to run the football, so it could be a grind-it-out, eat-the-clock contest. The Mountaineers have experienced both ends of the emotional spectrum already in 2003, beating up on the East Carolina Pirates in their second game (48-7) on the road, sandwiched around hard-fought losses to the Wisconsin Badgers at home in the opener (24-17) and the Cincinnati Bearcats last Saturday afternoon (15-13). As agonizing as the season has already been for WVU, at least they didn't fall to a mid-major in the season opener after being nationally ranked. That was the case for the Terps who, went from the national spotlight to ACC laughing stock after getting beaten by the No. Illinois Huskies in DeKalb back on August 28, by a final of 20-13. After that it didn't get any easier for Maryland, which opened its conference schedule with a disheartening 35-10 setback versus Florida State on the road. Last week the Terps took full advantage of a I-AA school, blowing out the Bulldogs of The Citadel, 61-0. WVU led 19-18-2 prior to the meeting last season in Morgantown, when the Terrapins ran away with a 48-17 victory.
Rasheed Marshall passed for a couple of touchdowns, from 11 and 48 yards on Saturday, but the Mountaineers simply gave up too much ground to Cincinnati in a two-point loss. Marshall finished the day 10-of-30 for 125 yards and a pair of interceptions as well. ON 11 rushing attempts Marshall also posted 36 yards on the ground, second only to Quincy Wilson to came away with 39 yards on 18 carries. As a team the Mountaineers, one of the top rushing teams in the entire nation a season ago, racked up a mere 118 yards on 40 attempts. Even with the disappointing output coming out of the backfield the squad is still averaging 213.7 ypg rushing after three contests. And even though the passing attack has been held to 152.3 ypg, it has still accounted for six touchdowns thus far, one more than ball carriers. The team has struggled to sustain drives, converting just 29 percent on third down and missing on all five of its fourth-down attempts. Wilson, who is averaging 95 ypg rushing, has accounted for three scores already, trying to fill the shoes of the departed Avon Cobourne.
The West Virginia defense did well to hold the Bearcats in check last weekend, limiting them to just one trip to the end zone and three field goals. Unfortunately it was one of the kicks that landed the Mountaineers in the loss column. Quarterback Gino Guidugli was permitted to hit 17-of-35 pass attempts for 146 yards and a score, but when WVU did manage to get to him, they limited the signal-caller to just 17 rushing yards on 11 attempts. Getting a chance to face off against a couple of Conference-USA teams in Cincy and East Carolina, the Mountaineers strengthened their scoring defense, which is limiting opponents to 15.3 ppg at this juncture. Grant Wiley has again taken the lead on the defense, generating a team-best 42 tackles, including 24 solo, not to mention five forced fumbles. Mike Lorello has matched Wiley's solo tackle total, making 34 overall, and he also leads the unit with eight tackles for loss. Further down the list is Earnest Hunter who has made two of his seven stops against opposing quarterbacks.
When a team shuts out another school it's assumed that the defense played a big part in the triumph, and that was certainly the case against the Bulldogs last weekend. The Terps held The Citadel to just 90 yards rushing on 31 attempts and an even more impressive 47 yards on 3-of-20 passing. While Maryland was averaging just over seven yards per play, the Bulldogs were coming up with less than three yards, to be generous. With the game so far out of reach so quickly, several players managed to get their names into the score books, including D'Qwell Jackson who led the Terps with six tackles on the day. Kevin Eli finished with just four stops, but was credited with one sack. Even with having to play the Seminoles already this year, Maryland has kept its yards allowed to under 300 on the average, but squads have still been able to convert 41 percent of their third down plays. Jackson is at the top of the tackle chart with 33 to go along with his one interception, one forced fumble and blocked kick. With just seven total tackles to his credit, Eli is tied for the team lead in both TFL (three) and sacks (two). Getting a chance to play against your old mates is certainly something that every player enjoys if they get the opportunity. Last season McBrien scored one touchdown on the ground and tallied another through the air in his return to Morgantown. Now, having gotten time to rest against the Bulldogs last weekend, he's sure to be ready to battle the Mountaineers.
In this game, look for West Virginia to run behind QB Rasheed Marshall and RB Quincy Wilson, while Maryland will try and muster some offense against a good team, after scoring just 13 to Northern Illinois and 10 to Florida State (both losses). Maryland is 14-1 SU/11-2 ATS at home since Ralph Friedgen showed up, but West Virginia has the talent to keep this a low scoring game. Although I belive Maryland will not only win the game and cover ATS...go with the under as the best total on the board!
Projected Score: Maryland 24, W Virginia 17
PLAY 2* UNITS ON MARYLAND/WEST VIRGINIA UNDER 47
VANDERBILT (1 - 2) at TCU (2 - 0)
Week 4 Saturday, 9/20/2003 7:00 PM
369 VANDERBILT
370 TCU -13
Detailed Analysis
Texas Christian struggled to victories in its first two games of the season. To earn their third in a row, they'll have to win without Ricky Madison. The 20th-ranked Horned Frogs (2-0, 1-0 Conference USA) will be without their top running back when they return after a week off to face Vanderbilt on Saturday at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Madison will miss the rest of the season after undergoing surgery last Thursday to repair a torn knee ligament. He was hurt in the first quarter of TCU's 17-3 win over Navy on Sept. 6 when he planted his right leg on a running play and it twisted awkwardly. He returned to the game in the second quarter, but left in obvious pain after just two more carries. The loss could be a major blow to the Horned Frogs, as Madison had 206 total yards in the season-opening 38-35 win at Tulane on Sept. 1. He had 115 yards rushing and caught three passes for 91 yards, including an 80-yard touchdown, in that contest. "Ricky was not only a great football player, but a great leader for this team," coach Gary Patterson said. "It's a shame because he's a senior who has done everything right on the field, in the weight room and in the classroom. I'm very disappointed for Ricky." Without Madison, even more pressure will fall on sophomore quarterback Tye Gunn, who has managed to lead his team to a pair of close victories. TCU nearly blew a 24-point lead against Tulane before Gunn led them to a crucial fourth-quarter touchdown. Against Navy, the Horned Frogs trailed 3-0 at halftime before Gunn directed them to scores on their first two drives after the break. TCU had been favored by three touchdowns in the game. Gunn completed 14 of 20 passes for 173 yards in improving to 6-0 as a starter. The Frogs had averaged 40 points a game in the sophomore quarterback's first five starts. TCU is hoping its running game won't suffer too badly without Madison. Sophomore Lonta Hobbs, who rushed for 1,029 yards in eight games last season and has 141 yards and four TDs in two games this season, will take over as the Frogs' starting tailback.
Vanderbilt (1-2, 0-2 SEC) is coming off a demoralizing 45-7 home loss to Auburn on Saturday. The Tigers scored 17 points in the second quarter and were never threatened by the overmatched Commodores, losers of 19 straight SEC games since November 2000 and 28 of their last 29. "We couldn't get our offense going," Vandy coach Bobby Johnson said. "And our defense was on the field too much. That's due to turning the ball over to Auburn too many times. It seemed like we were punting the ball on every other down." They should be able to hang better with the Frogs. Last week they caught a mean spirited Tiger by the tail. But there is a big difference between those Tigers and this weeks Frogs. Take the points and look for a low scoring defensive game.
Projected Score: TCU 21, Vanderbilt 14
PLAY 2* UNITS ON VANDERBILT +13
MIDDLE TENN ST (0 - 3) at MISSOURI (3 - 0)
Week 4 Saturday, 9/20/2003 2:00 PM
385 MIDDLE TENN ST
386 MISSOURI -20
Detailed Analysis
Off to its best start since 1981, Missouri looks to prove worthy of its first AP Top 25 ranking in five years in Saturday's match-up against winless Middle Tennessee State. Missouri (3-0) is coming off its first shutout victory in 58 games, a 37-0 rout of Eastern Illinois last Saturday. That win sprung the Tigers into the AP poll at No. 23, their first appearance since the end of the 1998 season. This start, the program's best since opening 5-0 in 1981, is particularly surprising considering Missouri has finished fifth in the Big 12's six-team North Division each of the last two seasons. "It's important to have a quick start. There were some things we wanted to accomplish ... teach our players how to win," said third-year coach Gary Pinkel. This Missouri team is trying to become the 12th in the program's 112-year history to win its first four games. Only five have done it since 1924. A big reason for the Tigers' turnaround is a defensive unit which is giving up just 7.3 points per game good for fourth in the country. The run defense is allowing an average of 78.3 yards ranked 20th nationally and has yet to surrender a rushing touchdown after allowing 22 in 2002. Senior cornerback Michael Harden is among the leaders of that unit. He had five tackles, two pass breakups, an interception and a forced fumble in last week's win. Harden and the Tigers defense now face a team which has yet to score 20 points in any game this season.
Middle Tennessee (0-3) is coming off a 37-14 loss at Clemson, one week after putting up a respectable fight in a 29-10 defeat to No. 7 Georgia. One player Missouri will watch carefully is Andrico Hines, the versatile QB who is also a threat to run. He's completed 63.5 percent of his passes and has not been intercepted in 87 pass attempts this season. Hines' counterpart, the Tigers' Brad Smith, is the Big 12 leader with a 72.1 completion percentage after going 26-of-33 for a season-high 236 yards with two touchdowns in last week's win. Smith also ranks 10th in the Big 12 with 72.7 rushing yards per game.
Let's see, Missouri (3-0 SU) is coming off a 37-0 victory over Division I-AA E. Illinois, recording its first shutout in over five years. Defensive end Brian Smith caused a fumble and had one of the four sacks in the route for the Tigers. Missouri had 509 yards of total offense and made E. Illinois fumble away three of its seven first-half possessions. That defense should be plenty for a Blue Raiders team that is coming off a 37-14 loss to Clemson and is 0-3 to start the season. The Blue Raiders were 1-6 SU on the road last season (3-4 ATS) and just 1-5 SU as the dog (3-3 ATS). Missouri should have their way in this one.
Projected Score: Missouri 40, Mid Tenn St 10
PLAY 1* UNIT ON MISSOURI -20 POSSIBLE UPGRADE
TEMPLE (0 - 2) at CINCINNATI (2 - 0)
Week 4 Saturday, 9/20/2003 7:00 PM
357 TEMPLE
358 CINCINNATI -14
Detailed Analysis
The Temple Owls head west to Ohio to clash with the Cincinnati Bearcats in non-conference action this weekend. This will be the 14th meeting between the two schools, with UC dominating things to date. The Bearcats defeated Temple, 35-22, last season at Franklin Field in the first meeting between the two teams since 1985. The two teams have taken different paths to begin the 2003 season. The Owls are winless, losing a close battle with theNittany Lions of Penn State, 23-10. Then the squad lost a heartbreaker against I-AA foe Villanova, 23-20, in overtime. The team was off last week, giving them a chance to regroup after the hard fought battle against Villanova. The Bearcats have begun their season in better form, winning their first two games. The team opened with a dominating 40-3 victory over East Carolina. The squad clashed with the Mountaineers of West Virginia last week and for the first time in 14 meetings, the Bearcats came out on top, 15-13. If Cincinnati defeats Temple it would be the best start to a season since 1985. A win against Temple would give coach Rick Minter his 55th at Cincinnati, making him the winningest coach in school history.
Despite losing to Penn State in the season opener, Temple's offensive unit was extremely impressive, racking up a total of 357 yards against the daunting Penn State defense. Against Villanova the squad posted 358 total yards in the overtime loss. Makonnen Fenton, who is sidelined indefinitely with a rib injury, played extremely well against the Lions, rushing for 118 yards on 23 carries. However, against the Wildcats Fenton was shut down as he racked up only 33 yards on 14 attempts, but he did score one touchdown. Quarterback Mike McGann supplied the offense for the team against 'Nova, completing 16-of-26 pass attempts for 229 yards, while throwing for one score. Receivers Phil Goodman and Zamir Abdul-Hakim Cobb reaped the benefits of McGann's quality performance. Goodman led the receiving corps with eight receptions for 139 yards, while Cobb also recorded eight catches for 111 yards, plus added a touchdown. Cobb and Goodman became the first receivers at Temple to gain over 100-yards in the same game since 1994 when Van Johnson recorded 103 yards and Marc Baxter posted 102 yards against Pittsburgh. After two games, Cobb leads the squad with 14 receptions for 216 yards, plus his one touchdown. His 108 yards per game ranks him second in the Big East and 15th in the nation. Against Penn St, the Owls completely shut down QB Zack Mills, allowing him to connect on only 7-of-17 pass attempts for 79 yards, while allowing just one score and coming up with an interception. However, Michael Robinson led the Penn State rushing attack with 82 yards on eight carries, while overall the Lions gained 231 yards on the ground. The Temple defensive unit pulled a role reversal against Villanova, however, shutting down the Wildcat rushing game in allowing only 59 yards on 28 carries. Unfortunately, the Owl secondary was torched for 348 yards and two scores through the air. Linebacker Rian Wallace has stepped up his performance tremendously since last season. Wallace finished '02 with 76 tackles, but this year he leads the defense with 22 stops after the first two games.
The loss of DeMarco McCleskey, the number two all-time running back in Bearcat history, should have caused a major drop off in production this season, but that is simply not the case. After two games, the Bearcats are ranked seventh in the nation in averaging 263 rushing yards per game. Leading the way is junior Richard Hall who is averaging 101 yards per game. In the season opener, the 'Cats ran all over East Carolina for 361 yards, and for the first time since November of 2001, the team had two running backs crack the century mark. Derrick Eddington carried the ball only 11 times, but recorded 138 yards, while Hall recorded 117. Hall was also extremely effective against West Virginia, racking up 85 yards on 18 carries while pacing all receivers with four catches for 48 yards. While the running game is causing problems for opposing defenses, quarterback Gino Guidugli is steadily climbing up the record charts at Cincinnati. Guidugli threw his 40th career touchdown pass against the Mountaineers, passing Dan McCoin for the most in Bearcat history. His 6,383 yards are the second-best in school history and by season's end he should own that record as well. The defense for Cincinnati has been nothing less than phenomenal. Opposing teams are averaging just 223 yards per game and only eight points per contest. The 223 yards allowed is the seventh lowest figure in the nation, while the eight points per game ranks sixth. The unit is 24th against the run and 10th overall in pass efficiency defense. Middle linebacker Jamar Enzor finished with eight tackles against WVU, giving him 13 total tackles this season. Defensive End Trent Cole leads the team with 18 stops and two sacks. The unit has been even stingier on third downs, as against East Carolina the squad allowed the Pirates to move the chains just twice on 15 tries. The unit enjoyed the same results against West Virginia, as the Mountaineers were successful on only 2-of-16 conversions attempts.
As you can see, the Bearcats are extremely talented on both sides of the football. Their rushing attack is nationally ranked as well is their defense, basically meaning a sub-par Temple team could have a lot of problems come Saturday night. Temple (0-2 SU, 1-0 ATS) has a decent passing offense behind QB Mike McGann, but the defense is very poor. Temple allowed Penn State 231 yards rushing and the ‘D’ gave up 348 passing yards in a 23-20 loss to Villanova. The Cincinnati Bearcats will be able to take advantage of this weak 'D' behind standout QB Gino Guidugli. The Bearcats are playing great (2-0 SU/ATS) with wins over East Carolina and a terrific 15-13 upset win at West Virginia last week (7-point road dog) where the defenses were outstanding. Cincinnati beat Temple 35-22 on the road last season and have the better team and are home this time.
Projected Score: Cincinnati 35, Temple 14
PLAY 1* UNIT ON CINCINNATI -14 POSSIBLE UPGRADE
UCLA (1 - 1) at OKLAHOMA (3 - 0)
Week 4 Saturday, 9/20/2003 3:30 PM
349 UCLA 46
350 OKLAHOMA -19
Detailed Analysis
Oklahoma plays its final non-conference tune up before beginning the Big 12 schedule when it hosts UCLA on Saturday. The top-ranked Sooners (3-0) looked extremely sharp in last Saturday's 52-28 rout of Fresno State. Oklahoma's offense scored touchdowns on all six of its first-half possessions en route to a 38-0 halftime lead. Jason White threw for 338 yards and tied a career high with 4 touchdown passes. "Things were clicking," White said. Through three games, White has completed 69 of 107 passes (64 percent) for 845 yards and nine touchdowns. He's only been intercepted once. The Sooners gained 556 yards of offense against Fresno State, one yard shy of tying the best offensive performance in Stoops' five seasons. Oklahoma may have a tougher time racking up the yards and points this week against UCLA (1-1), which beat Illinois 6-3 on Saturday.
UCLA, though, will need a much better offense performance against Oklahoma. The Bruins' Drew Olson completed just 11 of 31 passes for 94 yards with one interception against Illinois. His receivers didn't help much, however, dropping at least five passes, two of which could have been touchdowns. UCLA's offense has generated only 20 points, 25 first downs and 447 yards in two games. "That is the best defense I've ever seen," Olson said a day after watching Oklahoma on film for the first time. " ... They're awesome, they're so talented at every position." Olson's job may have gotten a little easier, as the Sooners' vaunted defense took a blow Saturday when linebacker Lance Mitchell tore a ligament in his left knee. Mitchell, a Butkus Award candidate, injured his ACL while making a tackle in the second quarter. Coach Bob Stoops said there's a "very slight" possibility that Mitchell might try to play through the injury, but it's more likely that he'll have surgery later this week. The 6-foot-3, 247-pound senior had 19 tackles in three games this season, a year after leading the nation's 10th-ranked defense in tackles (124), tackles for loss (19) and fumbles caused (4).
The Sooners are coming off a 52-28 stomping over Fresno State, in which they dominated every facet of the game. Oklahoma opened the game with a 38-point halftime lead and cruised the rest of the way. In the first half, Oklahoma had 370 yards and 22 first downs; Fresno State had 43 and two, also committing eight penalties for 80 yards. QB Jason White put on a clinic in the first half, completing 18-of-25 passes for 256 yards and touchdowns to three different receivers. In addition, Renaldo Works had 66 yards and two TDs on 13 carries. Oklahoma's daunting defense (which gave up less than two yards per play against the Bulldogs) also figures to give the Bruins (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) trouble, though the Sooners have been giving up more points with each succeeding game this season (3, 13, 28). UCLA is coming off its 500th victory against Illinois, 6-3 - a game that looked more like a baseball score. The Bruins have scored just 20 points total in two games this season and will need to score big and fast in this one to have any chance. While the Bruins did play well on the road last season (5-1 SU, 5-1 ATS) and as the dog (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) they will be up against an Oklahoma team that is polished on both sides of the field. The Sooners were a dominating 6-0 SU at home last season (4-2 ATS) and 11-2 SU as the favorite (7-6 ATS). Sooner QB White is in the zone, so look for UCLA's conservative offense to have trouble against the Sooners' great 'D' here and White to have plenty of red zone opportunities.
Projected Score: Oklahoma 38, UCLA 10
PLAY 1* UNIT ON OKLAHOMA -18
HAWAII (1 - 1) at UNLV (2 - 1)
Week 4 Friday, 9/19/2003 9:00 PM
305 HAWAII Pick
306 UNLV
Detailed Analysis
Don't read too much into the Rebel's upset victory last week as finally, the Rebels played a game where the opposition self-destructed. The UNLV offense looked mediocre at best, (187 total yards), but the Wisconsin Badgers turned the ball over five times (again, 5 times) leading to 20 of the Rebels 23 points. DB Jamaal Brimmer showed on national TV what we've known for a long time; he's NFL first round material if he hangs around Vegas for his senior season next year. Now the bad news. Hawaii comes to town off a horrible performance against USC. The 61-32 loss was a 3-3 game in the second quarter before Hawaii miscues and USC's top-5 talent combined for a blowout. But I suggest not to read too much into that tilt. Hawaii's complex scheme's will become a headache for UNLV to prepare for especially on a short week of practice. The Warriors are fringe top-25 material and will try to take out their frustrations against a Rebel team in Sin City. Last time that happened, UNLV fell 46-24 at Kansas. It may not be that bad this week but Hawaii is simply the better team. The Rebel offense gets a little predictable and boring for stretches of game time, whereas the Rainbows put it in the sky. This week it will be a neon sky.
Projected Score: Hawaii 36, UNLV 21
PLAY 1* UNIT ON HAWAII PICK'EM
NEVADA (1 - 1) at SAN JOSE ST (1 - 2)
Week 4 Thursday, 9/18/2003 9:00 PM
303 NEVADA Pick -1.5
304 SAN JOSE ST
Detailed Analysis
Nevada (1-1 SU, 1-0 ATS) opens WAC tournament play this week as it travels to neighboring California for a Thursday game with the San Jose Spartans. The main loss for the Pack this year is at QB, where the golden arm of departed senior Zack Threadgill will be most felt. Picking up the slack this season is Jeff Rowe and Andy Heiser. The two split time in the first game of the season with Heiser getting all the playing time against Oregon. Meanwhile, San Jose State (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) had last week off after losing to intrastate rival Stanford two weeks ago, 31-10. The Spartans jumped out to an early lead against the Cardinals, but for the second consecutive week were unable to score in the second half as Stanford rallied for the win. Nevada should come into this matchup with much more confidence than San Jose and while the score won’t be as big a blowout as last year, the Pack should prevail once again.
Projected Score: Nevada Reno 28, San Jose St 17
*OPINION PLAY ON NEVADA -1.5
