CONFESSIONS OF A DANGEROUS MIND

[Royler]

Variety estimates have it pegged at six on the nose...this will be a close one. Tuesday will tell the tale, as you've said.

Glad I didn't take this one.

Anyone with early thoughts on Final Destination 2 this weekend? Darkness Falls performed admirably with no star power or franchise to fall back on. FD2 got nailed with an "R" and the first only did about 10 mil its first weekend. Nonethless, it's aiming for about 3k theaters and built an audience on video. I would expect an easy win if the line opens at over 10.

 

[lakerfan]

Nice call AC. "feels more like 5.89 or lower"

COADM does 5.83M

Darkness Falls does 12.02M

 

[AC]

R movies are tough to predict. a lot will depend on how tough the MPAA is on exhibitors right now on enforcing the over 18 stuff. I just don't know.

the problem is that biker boyz is PG-13. so if they are tough on the R rules, the kids will just slide over to that movie OR worse case scenario (and this stuff happens and affects bo gross more than you would think) they will buy tix to biker boyz and sneak in to FD2.

also, general rule is that sequels do WORsE than original. this may not apply to FD2 because it had such good word of mouth with the original and built up to big numbers rather than declining. not seeing many tv ads for FD2 plus it is a bad release time. I don't think expectations are high for it. in 3000 theaters it should easily break 10 though.

laughed when I saw the correct Exhibitor Relations numbers today. can't trust Miramax about ANYTHING. especially getting $$$ from them that they owe you contractually.

AC