Conference Championship Week

[ofred]

Last week: Large 9-4, Small 6-6

Cumulative: Large 72-40 Small 51-49


Large:
Tulane/ Army- under 47 (-112) I think this total continues to decline as we get toward the end of the week. One big factor for me is that Army tends to have low scoring games when facing good competition. Or other academies, which is usually good competition. Army will have some extensive drives, 3, 4 yards at a time. But they very well could stall on a number of those drives as Tulane has that kind of defense that'll make it hard for Army to take it all the way for a TD. Tulane also likes to run the ball. These two teams are 1 and 2 in the AA Conference in defensive efficiency. Army is also number 1 in red zone defense in conf. While Tulane has the better passing attack, they don't have that many passing plays downfield. Should be cold and windy, possibly below freezing.

 

[ofred]

Thanks for the props from Indiana, Rooster, JC and Baseball Dave. Good luck.

 

[ofred]

Looking at the FCS games.

Small:
Boise State. -4 Boise is 1-3 ATS in their last 4 games. However, from past experience, the earlier games count for just as much if not more. The season is long and physically demanding, especially for starters. Playing in Wyoming late in the season can feel like a chore. Boise nearly knocked off Oregon, and the game was truly evenly matched. Also, beat WSU when the Cougs were playing lights out. Beat UNLV at their home field. This game is in Boise, and although it'll be cold, the weather shouldn't be a big factor. In their last game, and in other UNLV games, the pass blocking wasn't very good, and Boise defenders pressured the UNLV QB a lot- sacking him 6 times. And while both teams have great running attacks, UNLV's QB is the guy Boise's defense should key on. Boise also has the better D, and that can play large in big games at home like this.

 

[ofred]

Large:

Oregon -3 (-122) Don't want to overthink this one. Oregon started the season poorly, barely getting by Boise and beating Idaho by only 10. The OL, Gabriel, the WRs and the entire offense hadn't gelled as a unit. When they smoked Oregon State, and beat the Buckeyes (they were the better team despite the close score), the Ducks turned the corner. They have played better in their biggest games this season. PSU has a good front 7 on defense, but the Oregon OL has really played well since those previously mentioned games. I think they can somewhat offset the PSU rush and run defense. PSU also doesn't have have the big play threats on offense other than their outstanding TE. Drew Allar will have to be insanely good for PSU to win IMO. I have been impressed by the Ducks' line play vs. both Michigan and Ohio State, and I see something similar here. Dominated Illinois too. Oregon would likely drop to 5 in the CFP, and lose the bye.

SMU -2 Being in Charlotte, it'll be a bit like a Clemson home game. Not sure how well the SMU fans will travel. This game could be a statement on the benefits of the transfer portal. Lashlee at SMU has used it to build a powerhouse, while Dabo dismisses it and seems to only lose players to it. Honestly, this Clemson team has not played well vs. their better competition. They have played well vs. the defense-less ACC teams that they can just physically bully. Klubnick has been about all you can expect from a QB. The play-calling, the lack of run game vs. good teams, and execution errors have sometimes hampered their offense. The defense gives up too many explosive plays. SMU has a great offensive innovator in Lashlee, and I expect a great game plan here. Their defensive line, and defense in general, has a lot of speed and tackle well. They have had their bumps, like 6 TOs at Duke, and playing so-so with BC. But I think that BC game woke them up. Clemson and SMU both played Louisville, and the results were quite different. Dabo might still be ranting about refs and dealing with pissed off Clemson fans.

 

[indiana]

Fred.......thank you for all your effort and thought's this past season....
BOL this weekend.....indy

 

[Kaboom]

Bravo Fred ... great year

 

[vinnyvegas]

Love the Large YTD. Outstanding

Same side Ore & SMU

 

[bluefish33]

Large:

Oregon -3 (-122) Don't want to overthink this one. Oregon started the season poorly, barely getting by Boise and beating Idaho by only 10. The OL, Gabriel, the WRs and the entire offense hadn't gelled as a unit. When they smoked Oregon State, and beat the Buckeyes (they were the better team despite the close score), the Ducks turned the corner. They have played better in their biggest games this season. PSU has a good front 7 on defense, but the Oregon OL has really played well since those previously mentioned games. I think they can somewhat offset the PSU rush and run defense. PSU also doesn't have have the big play threats on offense other than their outstanding TE. Drew Allar will have to be insanely good for PSU to win IMO. I have been impressed by the Ducks' line play vs. both Michigan and Ohio State, and I see something similar here. Dominated Illinois too. Oregon would likely drop to 5 in the CFP, and lose the bye.

SMU -2 Being in Charlotte, it'll be a bit like a Clemson home game. Not sure how well the SMU fans will travel. This game could be a statement on the benefits of the transfer portal. Lashlee at SMU has used it to build a powerhouse, while Dabo dismisses it and seems to only lose players to it. Honestly, this Clemson team has not played well vs. their better competition. They have played well vs. the defense-less ACC teams that they can just physically bully. Klubnick has been about all you can expect from a QB. The play-calling, the lack of run game vs. good teams, and execution errors have sometimes hampered their offense. The defense gives up too many explosive plays. SMU has a great offensive innovator in Lashlee, and I expect a great game plan here. Their defensive line, and defense in general, has a lot of speed and tackle well. They have had their bumps, like 6 TOs at Duke, and playing so-so with BC. But I think that BC game woke them up. Clemson and SMU both played Louisville, and the results were quite different. Dabo might still be ranting about refs and dealing with pissed off Clemson fans.

Love the Large YTD. Outstanding

Same side Ore & SMU

Great year Ofred! Thanks for all the great capping, let’s keep rolling

 

[ofred]

Thanks guys. Hope it continues.

Small:
Iowa State +2 Iowa State had a 10-2 season and got really stiffed on the All Big 12 teams. I think they'll play with extra attitude. ISU has a team loaded with upperclassmen, and in the trenches are a tough physical team. Listening to Matt Campbell at a press conference, you can understand why Cyclone fans have to love that he stayed instead of taking jobs from the Lions or other college teams. His players also have to feel special because of that. ASU has been an incredible story under Dillingham, and I appreciate the money they've made me. But they almost feel like they've climbed the mountain top and are a little overconfident. They are off an easy win vs. state rival, Arizona, and beating ranked BYU and K State. ASU won a bunch of games getting out yarded, and their defense is suspect....while ISU's defense leads the conference. ISU has to get to Skattebo before he gets a head of steam- easier said than done.

 

[ofred]

Hard time capping the Texas-Georgia game. I'll enjoy it anyways.

 

[Cheddar]

Hard time capping the Texas-Georgia game. I'll enjoy it anyways.

Tough to imagine a repeat performance by Georgia. GL this week

 

[ofred]

Tough to imagine a repeat performance by Georgia. GL this week

Something tells me the over might cover.

 

[deadeyedick]

Hard time capping the Texas-Georgia game. I'll enjoy it anyways.

feel the same and that is a tight line and feel a number of games are pretty tight -- good luck with you plays -- too much chaos and inconsistency this season as more often than not, teams just don't perform to form and wide variances in play from week to week --

 

[ofred]

Small:

NDSU/ Abilene Christian- over 57 Game is being played in the cozy carpeted Fargo Dome...or whatever they call it. NDSU should be able to have their way offensively with AC, and even though it'll be mostly running the ball. In past games, vs. defenses like AC, they'll typically score in the 40s. But AC has quite a high powered passing attack that should be worth a few scores for them. Certainly garbage time could be a time they pass almost every play. Their QB, Maverick MCivor, will play, and this kid threw for about 3,700 yards this season, and 500 yards vs. Texas Tech. For AC, to have any chance to win, will be like the Tech game- slinging it all over.

 

[ofred]

Another FCS game of interest is UC Davis- Illinois State. This spread has gone about 3-4 points in favor of UC Davis.

 

[ofred]

Tulane's defense was awful...again. Boise cut the loss a bit.

Small:
Georgia/ Texas- over 50.5 Conference Championships, bowl games, big games, two very competent QBs, OCs that'll plan for this special game....It seems like these type of games have high scores and especially in the 2nd half. I'll be looking for the 2nd half total.

 

[bristolnole]

Been following you all season Fred.....Thank-you for not only the winners, but the detailed explanations. Absolutely love it.

I am in agreement to the letter on your Oregon play....But a 'capper I have learned to have a lot of respect for over the years - he's lives in Florida - presented this type of counter-argument ....

I'll shorten it, basically his point is that exactly what is the motivation for Oregon ? First year in a conference they have no historical connection to, no allegiance to at all; nothing to gain with a win over Penn State if their ultimate goal is the National Championship - which of course it is. What's the point for them to go all out in this game tonight?
Penn State on the or hand, has been in the league for 31 years. A league championship has been their goal every year. And having not won one since 2016, they are wanting this pretty badly I would think. Plus, they could get a first round bye in the playoffs and presumably a home game with a win.

He argues Oregon should rest their main starters since a loss won't hurt their playoff spot - they'll still get a bye and probably a home game.
Regardless, his main point is it's about motivation level of these two teams.

To all of that, I said, "WOW, talk about over-thinking things!"
OR ...... Does he have a good point?? Since your pretty tuned in to those programs in the Northwest, I'd love to get your response...

Thanks Fred!!

 

[bettingforrent]

Please explain how they will get a bye if they lose? Those go to the 4 conference winners. They may get a home game but not a bye if they lose.

 

[bristolnole]

if that's true, I stand corrected.

Hard to believe that the corrupt committee would give a bye to ASU over a one loss Oregon.

 

[ofred]

From what I've read, Oregon, with a loss, could drop to #5 by the committee, and lose the bye.