best advice i have is find a local that pays and post his lines early and honors them just before game time you will be a winner in the long run only if you play line movements of 3 or more (last minute injuries, steam and so on) i recall a game(one of about 8 that all became a winner) last new years eve it was coll football 1:00pm start boise st game the o/u# at 12:30 was 68 by game time the # drop to 62(bad wheather )TAKE the under at 68 and it stay under!(even under 62)that's value. You'll be a winner only if you play games like this. Put your daily plays in and hit these ones harder and if your sharp enough you may even have a winning % with your daily plays. There are locals who don't even know what their doing until you teach them by eventually taking their $ and getting cut off. I know this guy who became a VERY small local (10 squares at most what do you learn from a square=0) because he saids all gamblers lose including him so why not book.... he went out of business quick. Some locals don't even know the current lines.
Then open up an offshore acct and play middles if you like!
ive tried systems, its nice to dream of finding one that works.. ive been doing this for 17yrs, the first 10-15 with limited or little success, most years in the red.. however about 2-3 yrs ago things started to change, i now mostly flat bet, i dont put too much on any one game, no make or break situations for me, i built a solid bankroll, and now wager from .5% - no more than 2% on any one play, its a lot like trading,,, stick around for tomorrow,, now i look at plays in a series, lets say 100 plays.. i strive to hit 58-60% winners and not playing over my head while doing this,, i keep a log of my plays and by doing this, ive learned that totals are not for me, i play about 80-85% sides, with the remainder being totals, teasers, and a rare 2 team parlay.. teasers i like in the nfl only, playing at different times, with the first play coming in- then middle the 2nd.. its not flashy and exciting and completely boring to a lot of the big timers here.. my average bet is now $100 because my bankroll is 10k.. you can check my plays in the nba and nhl contests or forums,, ive made about 10k this year, going back last years nba.. not flashy but it works for me, sorry about rambling on this boring day,, my play for today is a 2 team teaser, GB-1/2 with Mia +9 and i may middle this if GB comes in,, i also like LA Kings tonight,, good day all..
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Darryl Parsons:
Lander,
Thanks, that's interesting. Just wondering...what percentage of the line moves are action-related and what percent are based on some new information like an unexpected weight change in boxing or something like that?<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
I haven't tracked this, it's just something I've noticed over time.
For instance, Chips posted that UFC steam went 11-0 a few months back during their big PPV event. I grabbed 4 of them and cashed in at 2nd tier payoffs.
Lander,
Thanks, that's interesting. Just wondering...what percentage of the line moves are action-related and what percent are based on some new information like an unexpected weight change in boxing or something like that?<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
I haven't tracked this, it's just something I've noticed over time.
For instance, Chips posted that UFC steam went 11-0 a few months back during their big PPV event. I grabbed 4 of them and cashed in at 2nd tier payoffs.
thanks Darrly, i own my own business and have time to do this, i enjoy it and its a good supplemental income.. gotta take the good with the bad and forget the chase mentality,, there are more games tomorrow.. if i hit a bad streak of say 6-12 or something like that,, ill take a day or 2 off, clear my head... set win goals for making withdrawls-- when betting online.. i just dont get into these GOY things, i treat it as a grind, i watch very little of the nba, nhl games that i bet on.. sorry more ramblings.. the guy ATX has a good idea of how to treat this and i think our mentality are close, however he plays many many more games than me.. i like the 1% bankroll per play, flat bet..
There are a couple different ways one can successfully use computers. One is to compile statistics to create "power rankings". This isn't too hard to do in team sports, where the loss of one individual to injury has little impact on the team. These work very poorly, however, in baskets and baseball, since the strength of a team changes dramatically with just one substitution. But if you put in the work, are a decent programmer, and understand football, it's not impossible to create a model that hits 55% of your games (playing perhaps 2-3 NFL games per week).
Baseball is a much tricker sport to handicap. One way to tackle baseball is via simulation, which is more practical now with faster computers. The downside is that you spend a TREMENDOUS amount of time updating individual player statistics, and checking rosters and injury reports. This method can find the most obviously "off" lines... perhaps 5 plays per week, with an ROR similar to hitting 55% in football.
A more serious question though... If you're spending all this time handicapping, and you're successful (i.e. hitting 55%+), would you have been better off doing your day job? If you're able to do all this analysis, odds are you make pretty decent money during the day...
Baseball is a much tricker sport to handicap. One way to tackle baseball is via simulation, which is more practical now with faster computers. The downside is that you spend a TREMENDOUS amount of time updating individual player statistics, and checking rosters and injury reports. This method can find the most obviously "off" lines... perhaps 5 plays per week, with an ROR similar to hitting 55% in football.
A more serious question though... If you're spending all this time handicapping, and you're successful (i.e. hitting 55%+), would you have been better off doing your day job? If you're able to do all this analysis, odds are you make pretty decent money during the day...
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>
A more serious question though... If you're spending all this time handicapping, and you're successful (i.e. hitting 55%+), would you have been better off doing your day job? If you're able to do all this analysis, odds are you make pretty decent money during the day...<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
What I have envisioned in terms of using a computer to handicap baseball is exactly what you describe. Run many simulations of a game and get an estimate of the score distribution. Then use that data, along with the cost function (i.e. the bookmakers' lines) to identify plays that have value. IMO the work here is in developing the simulation to begin with. This is not an easy problem (for example: I defy anyone to find me the probabilities that a runner on 1st advances to 2nd or 3rd on a single). Once an accurate simulation is developed though, your work is basically done. It's not that hard to just download stats off the net. Each day you would just identify the games to be played, type in the starting pitchers for each game (and any significant injuries of course) run your simulations, and let the money roll in . . . .
. Then you can go back to your high paying day job and use the tax-free (in Canada) gambling winnings for cocaine and hookers on the weekend.
A more serious question though... If you're spending all this time handicapping, and you're successful (i.e. hitting 55%+), would you have been better off doing your day job? If you're able to do all this analysis, odds are you make pretty decent money during the day...<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
What I have envisioned in terms of using a computer to handicap baseball is exactly what you describe. Run many simulations of a game and get an estimate of the score distribution. Then use that data, along with the cost function (i.e. the bookmakers' lines) to identify plays that have value. IMO the work here is in developing the simulation to begin with. This is not an easy problem (for example: I defy anyone to find me the probabilities that a runner on 1st advances to 2nd or 3rd on a single). Once an accurate simulation is developed though, your work is basically done. It's not that hard to just download stats off the net. Each day you would just identify the games to be played, type in the starting pitchers for each game (and any significant injuries of course) run your simulations, and let the money roll in . . . .
you guys are dreaming. Anything you have bookmakers have 10 fold.
You think you are going to consider stats different than they are? What you are talking about is going against the public. Thats the only time the line loosens up and that doesnt mean the public werent on the right side anyways.
You think you are going to consider stats different than they are? What you are talking about is going against the public. Thats the only time the line loosens up and that doesnt mean the public werent on the right side anyways.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by BillDozer:
you guys are dreaming. Anything you have bookmakers have 10 fold.
You think you are going to consider stats different than they are? What you are talking about is going against the public. Thats the only time the line loosens up and that doesnt mean the public werent on the right side anyways.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
I don't necessarily agree with you Bill. I think it is possible to look at stats in new ways and gain significant insight. SABRMetrics is a good example. SABRmetrics have been around for years, but were ignored by big-league baseball teams. 20 years ago some nerd in his basement was poring over these numbers trying to gain insight into baseball and people probably made fun of him for it. After all, the MLB teams with their big budgets and experts knew more about talent than he did, right? Except now we see those nerds were right, and some of them are running teams. The point is that the numbers always existed, and people always studied them as measures of talent. But 100 years after baseball was invented people started looking at those numbers in a new way, and changed the way people view the game.
you guys are dreaming. Anything you have bookmakers have 10 fold.
You think you are going to consider stats different than they are? What you are talking about is going against the public. Thats the only time the line loosens up and that doesnt mean the public werent on the right side anyways.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
I don't necessarily agree with you Bill. I think it is possible to look at stats in new ways and gain significant insight. SABRMetrics is a good example. SABRmetrics have been around for years, but were ignored by big-league baseball teams. 20 years ago some nerd in his basement was poring over these numbers trying to gain insight into baseball and people probably made fun of him for it. After all, the MLB teams with their big budgets and experts knew more about talent than he did, right? Except now we see those nerds were right, and some of them are running teams. The point is that the numbers always existed, and people always studied them as measures of talent. But 100 years after baseball was invented people started looking at those numbers in a new way, and changed the way people view the game.
Back then Books capped with their heads because thats what bettors use. NOw bettors use programs and algorythms and that is what the book will also use.
If you are talking about using different stats than them then you are talking about what handicapping really is. Its knowing which stats to ignore and which to apply to each individual event. Remember they were hittin very soft lines and only getting 58%.
If you follow the same set of stats for every event you are following a glorified trend.
If you are talking about using different stats than them then you are talking about what handicapping really is. Its knowing which stats to ignore and which to apply to each individual event. Remember they were hittin very soft lines and only getting 58%.
If you follow the same set of stats for every event you are following a glorified trend.
Originally posted by Angus Ontario:
I defy anyone to find me the probabilities that a runner on 1st advances to 2nd or 3rd on a single).
31% to advance to third.
Unfortunately, the money doesn't quite "roll in". There was a problem with the model... Our totals were about 1 run too low. There are some screwey things that are hard to account for, like when a team is up by 8 in the 8th inning, and they steal second unopposed. Or when a fan interferes with a catch. Or, ... If you have something odd happening in every 4 games, it can blow your perfect stats apart. And face it, weird things happen in baseball.
The sims were good at setting approximate lines though. If we had a game marked at -120, and we were offered +120, we had an ROR of 5% on games with line errors that large. But MAN, it is a lot of work!
I defy anyone to find me the probabilities that a runner on 1st advances to 2nd or 3rd on a single).
31% to advance to third.
Unfortunately, the money doesn't quite "roll in". There was a problem with the model... Our totals were about 1 run too low. There are some screwey things that are hard to account for, like when a team is up by 8 in the 8th inning, and they steal second unopposed. Or when a fan interferes with a catch. Or, ... If you have something odd happening in every 4 games, it can blow your perfect stats apart. And face it, weird things happen in baseball.
The sims were good at setting approximate lines though. If we had a game marked at -120, and we were offered +120, we had an ROR of 5% on games with line errors that large. But MAN, it is a lot of work!
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> Once an accurate simulation is developed though, your work is basically done. It's not that hard to just download stats off the net. Each day you would just identify the games to be played, type in the starting pitchers for each game (and any significant injuries of course) run your simulations, and let the money roll in . . . . <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
In the securities trading world, what you describe is called a "black box". Let me tell you, it's a myth. There has never been a system designed to predict future events that worked for more than a very limited period of time. An algorithm, that by dumb luck, stumbled on to a trend. We all know, that all trends end. Anyone who tells you differently has some software and snake oil to sell you.
In the securities trading world, what you describe is called a "black box". Let me tell you, it's a myth. There has never been a system designed to predict future events that worked for more than a very limited period of time. An algorithm, that by dumb luck, stumbled on to a trend. We all know, that all trends end. Anyone who tells you differently has some software and snake oil to sell you.
Hanover00 wrote "what you describe is called a "black box". Let me tell you, it's a myth. There has never been a system designed to predict future events that worked for more than a very limited period of time."
I have to disagree. I have a tested black box which for select games (2-3 a week in NFL; 3-4 in Arena) "appear" to hit at least 55%. At least if live testing in 2k2 and 2k3, and back testing for 6 years is valid.
I have to disagree. I have a tested black box which for select games (2-3 a week in NFL; 3-4 in Arena) "appear" to hit at least 55%. At least if live testing in 2k2 and 2k3, and back testing for 6 years is valid.
