Seahawks @ Jets Seattle 2-8 ATS L10 games, Seahawks 0-3 ATS vs. AFC East TY. New York 3-1 ATS L4 games...The Jets are 7-1 SU and 5-2-1 ATS L/8 versus the Seahawks. Five of those 8 meetings went 'over' the set 'total'. Seattle is 1-4 ATS L/5 overall and is 7-3 ATS L/10 on the road. The Jets are 10-4 ATS L/14 overall and are 4-2 ATS L/6 at home. The Seahawks have gone 'over' the set 'total' in 8 of their L/10 games. The Jets have gone 'under' in 4 of their L/5 overall in 14 of their L/19 at home. The Seahawks are 8-3 ATS L/11 December games. The Jets are 7-3 ATS L/10 as favorites. Seattle is 0-3 ATS L/3 versus AFC East division opponents. Note: The Jets have the NFL's second best defense allowing just 14.8 PPG. ....Jets scored 17 or less in five of last six games, with last four staying under the total they're 3-3 as home favorite this year. Seattle allowed an average of 34.7 ppg in last three weeks (12 TD's on 36 drives); they're 1-1 as dog, 1-2 vs AFC this year. Jets held last five foes to 262 or less yards, but Seattle gained 507,455 last two weeks and is 5-0 if they allow less than 23 points, a figure Jets hit twice in last 11 games. When in doubt this season, take AFC club over the NFC club.
Cowboys @ Eagles Philly 7-1-1 ATS L9 vs. Dallas, 4-1 ATS @ home vs. Dallas.....The Eagles are 7-1-1 ATS L/9 against the Cowboys. Six of the L/7 meetings in this series have gone 'over' the set 'total'. Dallas is 3-7 ATS L/10 and 2-6 ATS L/8 away. Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS L/5 and 5-1 ATS L/6 at home. The Cowboys have gone 'over' in 6 of their L/9 and in 6 of their L/7 on the road. The Eagles have gone 'under' in 9 of their L/12 on the road 4 of their L/5 overall. Philadelphia is 9-1 ATS L/10 against conference opponents. The Eagles are 14-4 ATS L/18 against a losing team. Dallas is 4-12 ATS against a team with a winning record. Note: The Eagles defense allows just 15 PPG. ...Philly clinches home field all way through NFC playoffs with win here over a hated Dallas squad it beat 49-21 on a Monday night in Week 10, gaining 485 yards, averaging 11.6 yards per pass attempt, with a plus-3 turnover margin. Cowboys are 2-4 on road, with losses by 18-21-23-20 points, as it does not possess passing game to come back in games. Eagle un defense has taken injury hits last two weeks, but they're still 4-1 vs spread in last five games.
Vikings @ Lions Detroit 6-2 ATS L8 vs. Minny.....The Vikings have won 9 of the L/10 SU in this series but Detroit has covered 7 of those 10 meetings. The L/3 meetings in this series went 'under' the set 'total'. Minnesota is 4-1 ATS L/5 away contests. The Lions are 1-4 ATS L/5 at home. The Vikings have gone 'under' in 4 of their L/5 games but have gone 'over in 4 of their L/5 on the road. Detroit has gone 'under' in 4 of their L/6 games overall. Minnesota is 0-8 ATS L/8 against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season. Note: The Vikings, with one of the NFL's top passing attacks, are averaging 276.4 YPG through the air..... Minnesota lost two in row and five of last seven; they've allowed 29.7 ppg in losing last three road games, but they did beat Lions 22-19 at home four weeks ago, ralling from 17-7 halftime deficit. Last four Viking games stayed under. Detroit is 1-6 in its last seven games, with only win when Cards gave rookie QB Navarre his only NFL start. Mariucci has lost faith in Harrington (5-22, 47 yards last week), but Lions have run ball for average of 180.5 yards per game last 4 wks
Chargers @ Browns San Diego 10-1-2 ATS TY includes 9-0-1 L10; Cleveland 0-6 ATS L6 games.....The Chargers are 2-1 SU/ATS in this series. The last two meetings have gone 'over' the set 'total'. San Diego is 9-1 ATS L/10 overall and 5-0-1 ATS L/6 on the road. The Browns have lost 6 straight SU/ATS overall but have covered 4 of 7 at home this year. The Chargers have gone 'over' in 4 of their L/6 games but have gone 'under' 4 of their L/5 away. Cleveland has gone 'over' in 7 of their L/9 overall. San Diego is a perfect 7-0 ATS this season against losing teams. The Browns are 1-5 ATS against a winning team in 2004. Cleveland is 6-13 ATS L/19 against AFC West division opponents. Note: The Chargers score an average of 28.5 PPG. San Diego's run defense is tops in the NFL allowing 77.5 YPG....Browns lost seven games in row and are now in total disarray, allowing 79 points in two games since coaching change, and 14 TD's on foes' last 38 drives. Chargers are 10-1-2 vs spread in '04, 9-0-1 last ten games; they can win cold weather tilts because they can run ball, and Brees played in Big 11, so he has bad weather experience. In their last two games, Brown opponents started eight of 24 drives in Cleveland territory; they've been outscored 72-43 in seocnd half of last three games, so defense is tired and beaten up.
Bills @ Bengals Buffalo 8-2 ATS L10 games includes 4-0 L4; Bengals 5-1 ATS L6 games.....The Bills are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS L/4 meetings in this series and long term are 7-3 ATS L/10 confrontations. The Bills are 6-1 ATS L/7 overall and 4-2 ATS L/6 on the road. The Bengal's are 5-0-1 ATS L/6 overall. Buffalo has gone 'over' in 6 of their L/7 and 'under' in 15 of their L/19 on the road. Cincinnati has gone 'under' in 6 of their L/7 at home. The Bills are 5-1 ATS as a favorite this season and 5-1 ATS L/6 against losing teams. The Bengal's have gone 'over' the set 'total' in 12 of their L/16 when the line has been set at between -3 to +3. Cincinnati has gone 'under' in 9 of their L/12 on turf. Both teams are averaging 22.8 PPG on offense this year.....Buffalo won, covered last four games and six of last seven, scoring 38.5 ppg in last four; they're 1-3 on grass this year, 7-1 if game goes over total, 0-6 if it stays under. Last three Bengal games went over total (106-53-63); Cincy covered five of last six weeks they're 5-3 in last eight. Palmer is question mark with sprained knee, but Kitna might be best backup in league. Bengals gained 478 yards at Foxboro last week, but allowed 95.5 yards per pass attempt in 35-28 loss, a backdoor cover. Buffalo LB Spikes played in Cincy for many years. Bills are plus-10 in turnovers last four games.
Jags @ Packers Green Bay 2-5 as HF TY.....The Packers are 2-0 ATS L/2 most recent meetings in this series. No totals trends were established. Jacksonville is 8-5 ATS on the season and 3-3 ATS on the road. The Packers are 1-3-1 ATS L/5 overall and 2-6 ATS L/8 at home. The Jaguars have gone 'under' in 5 of their L/7 away and 5 of their L/6 overall. Green Bay has gone 'over' the set 'total' in 7 of their L/9 overall and 4 of their L/5 at home. Jacksonville is 6-3 ATS L/9 as an underdog. The Packers are 0-2 ATS L/2 versus AFC South division opponents. Green Bay is 34-18 ATS L/52 in December but 0-2 ATS so far this month. Note: The Jags are only scoring an average of 16.9 PPG this season. .....Green Bay won seven of last eight games, but three of last four wins were all by FG each; they scored just three TD's on last 25 drives and are just 3-5-1 as faovrite this year. Four of their last five home games went over. Jaguars ended three-game skid last week; they're 3-3 on road, 6-3 as dog; under is 10-3 in their games this year, with last four all going under Jags are 2-6 if they allow 17+ points, 5-0 if they don't; Packers scored 16-45-17-16 their last four games. Last home game of season for Packers.
Texans @ Bears Houston 2-4 as AD TY; Chicago 2-4 ATS @ home TY.....This is the first meeting between these teams. Houston is 2-3-1 ATS L/6 overall and 2-6 ATS L/8 away. The Bears are 2-6 ATS L/8 at home. Houston has gone 'under' in 6 of their L/8 games and in 4 of their L/5 on the road. Chicago has gone 'under' the set 'total' in 4 of their L/6 overall and 4 of their L/6 at home. The Texans are 12-3 ATS L/15 after two more consecutive losses. The Bears are 5-1 ATS L/6 when the line in a home game is set between 35.5 and 38 points. Note: The Bears offense only averages 15.3 PPG second worst in the NFL in 2004. ....Texans lost five of last six games, but all five losses were vs playoff teams, which Bears are not; Houston is 5-1 this year vs teams that, right now, are out of playoff hunt. Bears lost three of last four games, with plus-3 turnover ratio in lone win; they're 2-4 at home and 0-7 if they score less than 19 points. Texans held just four of 13 foes under 19 points, one of six on road, where they allow average of 26.8 ppg. In last four games, Bears scored total of 14 second half points.
Saints @ Bucs New Orleans 3-0 ATS L3Y @ Tampa Bay.....The Bucs are 6-4 ATS L/10 meetings in this series New Orleans is 3-1 ATS L/4 meetings in Tampa Bay. The 'under' is 3-0 L/3 in this series. The Saints are 6-2 ATS L/8 away. TB is 5-10 ATS L/15 games and 4-0-1 ATS L/5 at home. New Orleans has gone 'under' in 4 of their L/5 overall and 'over' in 4 of their L/6 on the road. The Bucs have gone 'under' in 4 of their L/5 and 5 of their L/6 at home. The Bucs have gone 'under' in 8 of their L/9 against conference opponents. Note: New Orleans run defense is the worst in the NFL and allows 149.6 PPG and their pass defense allows is the second worst in the league allowing 255.3 YPG.....Bucs won 20-17 in Week 5 at Superdome, their first win after 0-4 start, as they sacked Brooks four times and held him under 50% completions. Erratic Saints are 1-3 vs spread after a win this year, while Bucs are 3-1 as favorite; four of last five Tampa games stayed under. Last week was first time the Saints held team under 20 points. Bucs won their last four home games by combined score of 138-41 (34-10 avg). Home side covered last eight Tampa Bay games.
Rams @ Cards St Louis 1-3 ATS L4 vs. Arizona, Rams 3-9-1 ATS TY includes 0-4 L4.....The Rams are 5-2 ATS L/7 versus the Cardinals but just 2-5 ATS. Three of the L/4 meetings have gone 'over' the set 'total'. St. Louis is 1-6 ATS L/7 and 1-4 ATS L/7 on the road. Arizona is 1-4 ATS L/5 but is 8-3 ATS L/11 at home. The Rams have gone 'over' in 15 of their L/22 contests and 9 of their L/11 on the road. The Rams have gone 'over' in 8 of their L/10 games and in 'under' the set 'total' in 17 of their L/24 at home. St. Louis is 6-17 ATS L/23 on the road and 1-10 ATS L/11 against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season. Arizona is 10-2 ATS L/12 in a contest where the total has been set at between 38.5 to 42 points. The Rams give up 2.5 Turnovers per game second worst in the NFL. ....Rams won the season opener 17-10, outgaining Redbirds 448-260, but now Chandler at QB, right tackle's a mess and both RB's are banged up. Rams won both division road games, scoring 28.5 ppg, but lost other five road games; they've forced just 13 turnovers all year, started just six drives in enemy territory (Bills, Ravens started that many last week alone), one in last seven games. Arizona lost four in row, allowing 26.3 ppg, but they showed heart in forcing OT after being down 28-3 in third quarter. Then again, 49ers are 2-11, and beat Cardinals twice in OT. Go figure.
Broncos @ Chiefs Denver 4-0-1 ATS L5 vs. KC.....The Broncos are 6-1 ATS L/7 meetings in this series. The Chiefs/Broncos have gone 'under' the set 'total' in 9 of the L/12 meetings played at Arrowhead Stadium. Denver is 3-7-2 ATS L/12 overall and 2-4-2 ATS L/8 on the road. KC is 2-4 ATS L/6 overall and 2-5 ATS L/7 at home. Broncos have gone 'under' in 10 of their L/12 games. The Chiefs have gone 'over' in 6 of their L/8 overall. KC is 1-9 ATS L/10 playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season. Denver has gone 'over' in 9 of their L/10 in December. The Chiefs are the second highest scoring team in the league at 30 PPG. The defense is one of the worst in the league allowing 28 PPG. ....KC will empty its tank to throttle rivals' playoff hopes, but they're on very short week, after Monday night game where they allowed 542 yards to backup QB, and would have been worse had WR Bennett not dehydrated. Denver won season opener 34-24, running for 202 yards, forcing three turnovers. RB Johnson gives Vermeil fresh legs. Denver's last three tilts were decided by total of seven points; they're 3-3 away from home, with under 5-0-1 in those games. Over is 6-2 in last eight Kansas City games.
Titans @ Raiders Tennessee 4-9 ATS TY; Oakland 4-9 ATS TY includes 1-5 @ home.....The Titans are 8-2 ATS L/10 versus Oakland. The 'over' is 6-3 L/9 meetings. Tennessee is 1-4 ATS L/5 overall and 2-4 ATS L/6 on the road. The Raiders are 1-6 ATS L/7 at home. Oakland has gone 'over in 5 of their L/7 games. The Titans have gone 'over' in 5 of their L/6 games overall and in 4 of their L/6 on the road. The Raiders are 19-44 ATS L/63 when playing against a team with a winning record. Tennessee is 1-4 ATS L/5 against AFC west division opponents. The Raiders are 2-7 ATS L/9 against conference opponents. Note: the Raiders have the NFL's worst running game averaging 76.2 YPG. ....Teams with losing records travelling off of December Monday night home game are riskiest of business, and Titans tried very hard Monday night, gaining 542 yards, but allowing six TD's on 13 drives; they've allowed 146+ rushing yards in last four games, allowing 30.3 ppg in last six road games, and this is their fourth road game in last five weeks. Raiders lost their last four home games, allowing 29.5 ppg; they are 76-81 since moving back to Oakland 10 years ago.
Ravens @ Colts Baltimore 9-4 ATS TY includes 9-2 L 9 games; Indy 8-4-1 ATS TY includes 4-1 L5.....Baltimore is 4-0 ATS L/4 versus the Colts. These teams have gone 'under' the set 'total' in 5 of the L/6 meetings played in Indianapolis. The Ravens are 4-1 ATS L/5 on the road. Indy is 5-2 ATS L/7 at home. Baltimore has gone 'under' in 8 of their L/9 on the road. The Colts have gone 'over' in 6 of their L/7 at home. Indy has gone 'over' the set 'total' in 14 of their L/18 against a winning team. The Colts lead the league in passing with 296 YPG and the NFL's highest scoring team averaging 34.9 PPG. ....Indy won last six games, covering four of last five, with all five won by 9+ points. Ravens are 1-1 as dog; they won only previous game on turf, in OT at Jets, but this is fast carpet, not FieldTurf. Colts scoring 39.2 ppg at home this year, with five of six going over total, as have five of the last six Raven games. Baltimore losses this year are by 17-3-5-1-21 points; int heir last six games, if you take out last quarter vs Bengals, they've allowed five TD's in other 23 quarters. Manning can break all-time record for TD passes if he gets three here. Indy has already clinched division title, so little less at stake for them. Ravens need wins to make playoffs.
Monday December 20th
Patriots @ Dolphins Miami 5-1 ATS @ home vs. New England; Pats 4-0 ATS L4 vs. Dolphins, New England 9-3-1 ATS TY, 4-1 ATS on Monday Night S/00.....The Dolphins are 7-3 ATS L/10 as home dog on MNF. Miami is 18-35 ATS L/53 December games. New England is a perfect 4-0 ATS versus division opponents this season. The Pats are 4-1 ATS L/5 in this series. New England is 32-17 L/49 games in December. ....Miami will hire big-name coach, because that's what rich nitwits do, they go for names instead of substance. Jim Bates has Miami playing hard every game, as only one of their last four losses is by more than seven points, and that was only 42-32. Patriots playing for home field in AFC, but they have major distraction now, with Weis headed to South Bend, and they allowed Bengals 478 yards last week, 150 on ground, is defense slipping? Pats are 9-3-1 vs spread this year and still motivated to win, but Miami tries every week and has shown little more pep with Feeley at QB.
Cowboys @ Eagles Philly 7-1-1 ATS L9 vs. Dallas, 4-1 ATS @ home vs. Dallas.....The Eagles are 7-1-1 ATS L/9 against the Cowboys. Six of the L/7 meetings in this series have gone 'over' the set 'total'. Dallas is 3-7 ATS L/10 and 2-6 ATS L/8 away. Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS L/5 and 5-1 ATS L/6 at home. The Cowboys have gone 'over' in 6 of their L/9 and in 6 of their L/7 on the road. The Eagles have gone 'under' in 9 of their L/12 on the road 4 of their L/5 overall. Philadelphia is 9-1 ATS L/10 against conference opponents. The Eagles are 14-4 ATS L/18 against a losing team. Dallas is 4-12 ATS against a team with a winning record. Note: The Eagles defense allows just 15 PPG. ...Philly clinches home field all way through NFC playoffs with win here over a hated Dallas squad it beat 49-21 on a Monday night in Week 10, gaining 485 yards, averaging 11.6 yards per pass attempt, with a plus-3 turnover margin. Cowboys are 2-4 on road, with losses by 18-21-23-20 points, as it does not possess passing game to come back in games. Eagle un defense has taken injury hits last two weeks, but they're still 4-1 vs spread in last five games.
Vikings @ Lions Detroit 6-2 ATS L8 vs. Minny.....The Vikings have won 9 of the L/10 SU in this series but Detroit has covered 7 of those 10 meetings. The L/3 meetings in this series went 'under' the set 'total'. Minnesota is 4-1 ATS L/5 away contests. The Lions are 1-4 ATS L/5 at home. The Vikings have gone 'under' in 4 of their L/5 games but have gone 'over in 4 of their L/5 on the road. Detroit has gone 'under' in 4 of their L/6 games overall. Minnesota is 0-8 ATS L/8 against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season. Note: The Vikings, with one of the NFL's top passing attacks, are averaging 276.4 YPG through the air..... Minnesota lost two in row and five of last seven; they've allowed 29.7 ppg in losing last three road games, but they did beat Lions 22-19 at home four weeks ago, ralling from 17-7 halftime deficit. Last four Viking games stayed under. Detroit is 1-6 in its last seven games, with only win when Cards gave rookie QB Navarre his only NFL start. Mariucci has lost faith in Harrington (5-22, 47 yards last week), but Lions have run ball for average of 180.5 yards per game last 4 wks
Chargers @ Browns San Diego 10-1-2 ATS TY includes 9-0-1 L10; Cleveland 0-6 ATS L6 games.....The Chargers are 2-1 SU/ATS in this series. The last two meetings have gone 'over' the set 'total'. San Diego is 9-1 ATS L/10 overall and 5-0-1 ATS L/6 on the road. The Browns have lost 6 straight SU/ATS overall but have covered 4 of 7 at home this year. The Chargers have gone 'over' in 4 of their L/6 games but have gone 'under' 4 of their L/5 away. Cleveland has gone 'over' in 7 of their L/9 overall. San Diego is a perfect 7-0 ATS this season against losing teams. The Browns are 1-5 ATS against a winning team in 2004. Cleveland is 6-13 ATS L/19 against AFC West division opponents. Note: The Chargers score an average of 28.5 PPG. San Diego's run defense is tops in the NFL allowing 77.5 YPG....Browns lost seven games in row and are now in total disarray, allowing 79 points in two games since coaching change, and 14 TD's on foes' last 38 drives. Chargers are 10-1-2 vs spread in '04, 9-0-1 last ten games; they can win cold weather tilts because they can run ball, and Brees played in Big 11, so he has bad weather experience. In their last two games, Brown opponents started eight of 24 drives in Cleveland territory; they've been outscored 72-43 in seocnd half of last three games, so defense is tired and beaten up.
Bills @ Bengals Buffalo 8-2 ATS L10 games includes 4-0 L4; Bengals 5-1 ATS L6 games.....The Bills are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS L/4 meetings in this series and long term are 7-3 ATS L/10 confrontations. The Bills are 6-1 ATS L/7 overall and 4-2 ATS L/6 on the road. The Bengal's are 5-0-1 ATS L/6 overall. Buffalo has gone 'over' in 6 of their L/7 and 'under' in 15 of their L/19 on the road. Cincinnati has gone 'under' in 6 of their L/7 at home. The Bills are 5-1 ATS as a favorite this season and 5-1 ATS L/6 against losing teams. The Bengal's have gone 'over' the set 'total' in 12 of their L/16 when the line has been set at between -3 to +3. Cincinnati has gone 'under' in 9 of their L/12 on turf. Both teams are averaging 22.8 PPG on offense this year.....Buffalo won, covered last four games and six of last seven, scoring 38.5 ppg in last four; they're 1-3 on grass this year, 7-1 if game goes over total, 0-6 if it stays under. Last three Bengal games went over total (106-53-63); Cincy covered five of last six weeks they're 5-3 in last eight. Palmer is question mark with sprained knee, but Kitna might be best backup in league. Bengals gained 478 yards at Foxboro last week, but allowed 95.5 yards per pass attempt in 35-28 loss, a backdoor cover. Buffalo LB Spikes played in Cincy for many years. Bills are plus-10 in turnovers last four games.
Jags @ Packers Green Bay 2-5 as HF TY.....The Packers are 2-0 ATS L/2 most recent meetings in this series. No totals trends were established. Jacksonville is 8-5 ATS on the season and 3-3 ATS on the road. The Packers are 1-3-1 ATS L/5 overall and 2-6 ATS L/8 at home. The Jaguars have gone 'under' in 5 of their L/7 away and 5 of their L/6 overall. Green Bay has gone 'over' the set 'total' in 7 of their L/9 overall and 4 of their L/5 at home. Jacksonville is 6-3 ATS L/9 as an underdog. The Packers are 0-2 ATS L/2 versus AFC South division opponents. Green Bay is 34-18 ATS L/52 in December but 0-2 ATS so far this month. Note: The Jags are only scoring an average of 16.9 PPG this season. .....Green Bay won seven of last eight games, but three of last four wins were all by FG each; they scored just three TD's on last 25 drives and are just 3-5-1 as faovrite this year. Four of their last five home games went over. Jaguars ended three-game skid last week; they're 3-3 on road, 6-3 as dog; under is 10-3 in their games this year, with last four all going under Jags are 2-6 if they allow 17+ points, 5-0 if they don't; Packers scored 16-45-17-16 their last four games. Last home game of season for Packers.
Texans @ Bears Houston 2-4 as AD TY; Chicago 2-4 ATS @ home TY.....This is the first meeting between these teams. Houston is 2-3-1 ATS L/6 overall and 2-6 ATS L/8 away. The Bears are 2-6 ATS L/8 at home. Houston has gone 'under' in 6 of their L/8 games and in 4 of their L/5 on the road. Chicago has gone 'under' the set 'total' in 4 of their L/6 overall and 4 of their L/6 at home. The Texans are 12-3 ATS L/15 after two more consecutive losses. The Bears are 5-1 ATS L/6 when the line in a home game is set between 35.5 and 38 points. Note: The Bears offense only averages 15.3 PPG second worst in the NFL in 2004. ....Texans lost five of last six games, but all five losses were vs playoff teams, which Bears are not; Houston is 5-1 this year vs teams that, right now, are out of playoff hunt. Bears lost three of last four games, with plus-3 turnover ratio in lone win; they're 2-4 at home and 0-7 if they score less than 19 points. Texans held just four of 13 foes under 19 points, one of six on road, where they allow average of 26.8 ppg. In last four games, Bears scored total of 14 second half points.
Saints @ Bucs New Orleans 3-0 ATS L3Y @ Tampa Bay.....The Bucs are 6-4 ATS L/10 meetings in this series New Orleans is 3-1 ATS L/4 meetings in Tampa Bay. The 'under' is 3-0 L/3 in this series. The Saints are 6-2 ATS L/8 away. TB is 5-10 ATS L/15 games and 4-0-1 ATS L/5 at home. New Orleans has gone 'under' in 4 of their L/5 overall and 'over' in 4 of their L/6 on the road. The Bucs have gone 'under' in 4 of their L/5 and 5 of their L/6 at home. The Bucs have gone 'under' in 8 of their L/9 against conference opponents. Note: New Orleans run defense is the worst in the NFL and allows 149.6 PPG and their pass defense allows is the second worst in the league allowing 255.3 YPG.....Bucs won 20-17 in Week 5 at Superdome, their first win after 0-4 start, as they sacked Brooks four times and held him under 50% completions. Erratic Saints are 1-3 vs spread after a win this year, while Bucs are 3-1 as favorite; four of last five Tampa games stayed under. Last week was first time the Saints held team under 20 points. Bucs won their last four home games by combined score of 138-41 (34-10 avg). Home side covered last eight Tampa Bay games.
Rams @ Cards St Louis 1-3 ATS L4 vs. Arizona, Rams 3-9-1 ATS TY includes 0-4 L4.....The Rams are 5-2 ATS L/7 versus the Cardinals but just 2-5 ATS. Three of the L/4 meetings have gone 'over' the set 'total'. St. Louis is 1-6 ATS L/7 and 1-4 ATS L/7 on the road. Arizona is 1-4 ATS L/5 but is 8-3 ATS L/11 at home. The Rams have gone 'over' in 15 of their L/22 contests and 9 of their L/11 on the road. The Rams have gone 'over' in 8 of their L/10 games and in 'under' the set 'total' in 17 of their L/24 at home. St. Louis is 6-17 ATS L/23 on the road and 1-10 ATS L/11 against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season. Arizona is 10-2 ATS L/12 in a contest where the total has been set at between 38.5 to 42 points. The Rams give up 2.5 Turnovers per game second worst in the NFL. ....Rams won the season opener 17-10, outgaining Redbirds 448-260, but now Chandler at QB, right tackle's a mess and both RB's are banged up. Rams won both division road games, scoring 28.5 ppg, but lost other five road games; they've forced just 13 turnovers all year, started just six drives in enemy territory (Bills, Ravens started that many last week alone), one in last seven games. Arizona lost four in row, allowing 26.3 ppg, but they showed heart in forcing OT after being down 28-3 in third quarter. Then again, 49ers are 2-11, and beat Cardinals twice in OT. Go figure.
Broncos @ Chiefs Denver 4-0-1 ATS L5 vs. KC.....The Broncos are 6-1 ATS L/7 meetings in this series. The Chiefs/Broncos have gone 'under' the set 'total' in 9 of the L/12 meetings played at Arrowhead Stadium. Denver is 3-7-2 ATS L/12 overall and 2-4-2 ATS L/8 on the road. KC is 2-4 ATS L/6 overall and 2-5 ATS L/7 at home. Broncos have gone 'under' in 10 of their L/12 games. The Chiefs have gone 'over' in 6 of their L/8 overall. KC is 1-9 ATS L/10 playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season. Denver has gone 'over' in 9 of their L/10 in December. The Chiefs are the second highest scoring team in the league at 30 PPG. The defense is one of the worst in the league allowing 28 PPG. ....KC will empty its tank to throttle rivals' playoff hopes, but they're on very short week, after Monday night game where they allowed 542 yards to backup QB, and would have been worse had WR Bennett not dehydrated. Denver won season opener 34-24, running for 202 yards, forcing three turnovers. RB Johnson gives Vermeil fresh legs. Denver's last three tilts were decided by total of seven points; they're 3-3 away from home, with under 5-0-1 in those games. Over is 6-2 in last eight Kansas City games.
Titans @ Raiders Tennessee 4-9 ATS TY; Oakland 4-9 ATS TY includes 1-5 @ home.....The Titans are 8-2 ATS L/10 versus Oakland. The 'over' is 6-3 L/9 meetings. Tennessee is 1-4 ATS L/5 overall and 2-4 ATS L/6 on the road. The Raiders are 1-6 ATS L/7 at home. Oakland has gone 'over in 5 of their L/7 games. The Titans have gone 'over' in 5 of their L/6 games overall and in 4 of their L/6 on the road. The Raiders are 19-44 ATS L/63 when playing against a team with a winning record. Tennessee is 1-4 ATS L/5 against AFC west division opponents. The Raiders are 2-7 ATS L/9 against conference opponents. Note: the Raiders have the NFL's worst running game averaging 76.2 YPG. ....Teams with losing records travelling off of December Monday night home game are riskiest of business, and Titans tried very hard Monday night, gaining 542 yards, but allowing six TD's on 13 drives; they've allowed 146+ rushing yards in last four games, allowing 30.3 ppg in last six road games, and this is their fourth road game in last five weeks. Raiders lost their last four home games, allowing 29.5 ppg; they are 76-81 since moving back to Oakland 10 years ago.
Ravens @ Colts Baltimore 9-4 ATS TY includes 9-2 L 9 games; Indy 8-4-1 ATS TY includes 4-1 L5.....Baltimore is 4-0 ATS L/4 versus the Colts. These teams have gone 'under' the set 'total' in 5 of the L/6 meetings played in Indianapolis. The Ravens are 4-1 ATS L/5 on the road. Indy is 5-2 ATS L/7 at home. Baltimore has gone 'under' in 8 of their L/9 on the road. The Colts have gone 'over' in 6 of their L/7 at home. Indy has gone 'over' the set 'total' in 14 of their L/18 against a winning team. The Colts lead the league in passing with 296 YPG and the NFL's highest scoring team averaging 34.9 PPG. ....Indy won last six games, covering four of last five, with all five won by 9+ points. Ravens are 1-1 as dog; they won only previous game on turf, in OT at Jets, but this is fast carpet, not FieldTurf. Colts scoring 39.2 ppg at home this year, with five of six going over total, as have five of the last six Raven games. Baltimore losses this year are by 17-3-5-1-21 points; int heir last six games, if you take out last quarter vs Bengals, they've allowed five TD's in other 23 quarters. Manning can break all-time record for TD passes if he gets three here. Indy has already clinched division title, so little less at stake for them. Ravens need wins to make playoffs.
Monday December 20th
Patriots @ Dolphins Miami 5-1 ATS @ home vs. New England; Pats 4-0 ATS L4 vs. Dolphins, New England 9-3-1 ATS TY, 4-1 ATS on Monday Night S/00.....The Dolphins are 7-3 ATS L/10 as home dog on MNF. Miami is 18-35 ATS L/53 December games. New England is a perfect 4-0 ATS versus division opponents this season. The Pats are 4-1 ATS L/5 in this series. New England is 32-17 L/49 games in December. ....Miami will hire big-name coach, because that's what rich nitwits do, they go for names instead of substance. Jim Bates has Miami playing hard every game, as only one of their last four losses is by more than seven points, and that was only 42-32. Patriots playing for home field in AFC, but they have major distraction now, with Weis headed to South Bend, and they allowed Bengals 478 yards last week, 150 on ground, is defense slipping? Pats are 9-3-1 vs spread this year and still motivated to win, but Miami tries every week and has shown little more pep with Feeley at QB.
