College Hoops Play of the Day

[dacoochiebets]

Montana vs Southern Miss
Southern Miss -6.5​

Time to put some fucking respect on this Southern Miss team ladies and gentlemen! Road wins against Liberty and Vanderbilt is worthy of some recognition, and while I had major concerns about this team entering the season, it seems like head coach Jay Ladner found some DUDES in the portal. Because man oh man has Felipe Haase (formerly of Mercier) shot the shit out of the ball to start the year, and with the addition of both Haase and Austin Crowley (Ole Miss), the team is doing a much better job of getting good shots on offense. For this group last year their Achilles heel was doing just that, getting good shots, as they just couldn't stop turning the ball over --- which in turn made their rugged defense more or less null and void.

Fast-forward to the present day and that same defense, which is creating almost 13 steals a game, is reaping the rewards of an offense that isn't giving it back nearly as much (averaging less than 11 per game). Add in the fact this team is playing at a snail's pace, and you have the makings of a side that is just so damn hard to beat.

And nothing I've seen from Montana tells me they've got the goods to get the job done --- particularly their lack of coherent guard play makes me very skittish to back this team right now. The loss of Cameron Parker just hasn't (yet) been adequately addressed, which has meant the success/failure of this team is more or less entirely based on the performance of Josh Bannan. Bannan leads the team in almost all statistical categories, and so far this season has made an eye-popping 45% of his 3-point attempts. But beyond Bannan, the rest of the team isn't provided much, and with the type of suffocating defense the Golden Eagles of Southern Miss are currently deploying, I'll be riding with the favorites to cover the number.

STAY GOLDEN EAGLE BOY.

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Time for a Triumphant Tuesday

Picks and Analysis for Nov.29th

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[dacoochiebets]

Kansas State vs Butler
Butler ML -145​

The action from the BigEast-Big12 challenge continues as the WildCats take on the Bulldogs in what should be quietly a pretty interesting game, one of the more underrated ones of this event if I do say so myself! Because although expectations were pretty low for Kansas State entering this season, with many picking them to finish in the bottom of the Big 12, this group has yet to lose and last week found themselves crowned Cayman Island Classic Champions.

And while a tip of the hat is certainly warranted to the first-year head coach Jerome Tang for getting this group to compete at this level so early, I think the market is over-adjusting this team a little too heavily when you consider the travel spot. Coming off a championship on the Island this team got back to the Kansas State campus just in time to celebrate their championship, as well as enjoy the atmosphere of a monster home win against Kansas to clinch a BIG12 championship spot on the football field.

If this isn’t a letdown spot for a group of young men what is?

So while Butler’s not exactly started the season as world beaters, ranking outside the top 80 in both defense and offense, I do have a high level of trust in Thad Matta’s ability to get this group playing sound basketball. Moreover, it is not as if this team is devoid of talent; the transfer portal brought in both Jalen Thomas and Manny Bates which should give this team a pretty big upgrade inside, and with the way Ali Ali can shoot the rock, it is very hard to see this team shooting 27% from 3 like they did last year.

So with my faith in Thad Matta and this roster being a little higher than most, and with the Wildcats having a whirlwind weekend, I’ll take the Bulldogs to drool all over the Wildcats and pick up this much-needed home W.

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Winning Wednesday

Picks and Analysis for Nov. 30th

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[dacoochiebets]

Youngstown State vs Northern Kentucky
YSU ML -115​

Look not many of you will know this, but this Youngstown State offense can really score the basketball, and they do it with efficiency more so than tempo and pace. The Penguins’ offense currently ranks inside the top 50 per KenPom in points per offensive possession and against a team like Northern Kentucky which likes to play slow, that’s the exact type of number you’d like to see from a team you are going to lay your hard earned money with.

Because if you weren’t aware, 3’s are worth more than 2’s, and the thing that Youngstown State is doing incredibly well now is burning the mesh from the outside. The Penguins currently have 3 guys shooting above 40% from the outside —- including a former Northern Kentucky man, Adrian Nelson, who came from that program never shooting 3’s. That might be why you’d want a change eh? Because in his new situation the kids averaging 14+ points a night and should be highly motivated to get the win tonight in a classic revenge spot. And frankly, I struggle to see how his team doesn’t get the better of his old school in Kentucky.

Because outside of Marques Warrick this team struggles to score, plays slowly and turns the ball over a lot more than you’d like. Now typically they get their fair share back by creating steals of their own, but in this matchup, I’m not so sure the pockets will be there to be picked.

Give me the efficiency of Youngstown State over the flamethrowing of one man any day of the week!


Looking to make it 2 in a row here after the Bulldogs of Butler handled business pretty easily! If you enjoyed this analysis check out my free newsletter for all my picks every day!

Thirsty For a Terrific Thursday

Picks and Analysis for Dec. 1st

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[dacoochiebets]

UT Arlington vs LSU
​

UT Arlington +19

Look I’m not going to lie to you about this one, this angle is a simple fade of LSU, a team that’s struggled to assert its dominance under first-year head honcho Matt McMahon, and a program that just seems to struggle to get the guys to give a damn.

The former Murray State manager cobbled together a roster of decent — but not stellar — transfers this summer. As a result, the Tigers lack the firepower we saw last season. To date on the season, The Tigers are a 1-3 as a home favorite. The Tigers struggled to get a margin on UMKC and Arkansas State in their first two games of the year, and then last Sunday, Wofford nearly upset LSU in Baton Rouge, too.

But perfect for me whose low on LSU; sandwiched in between these lulls was a respectable — but overrated — performance in the Cayman Islands. In hindsight, LSU’s double-digit victories over Illinois State and Akron are not aging well. These two teams are a combined 2-13 against the number this year.

So while UTA is far from a juggernaut, they did start the year with a solid outing against Oklahoma State, and if they can just limit the turnovers they should be able to hang tight in this matchup. Because let’s be honest with ourselves for a moment —- if you played for LSU would you be focused on this game against a team you are favored by nearly 20? Or would your mind be wandering to the SPLASH dancefloor and blonde co-eds?

GIVE ME THE POINTS AND LETS SWEAT.

Freaky Friday Full of Good Fortune

Picks and Analysis from Friday, Dec. 2nd

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