Tyler Shoemaker offers his college football predictions and best bets for the Week 4 action.
Perhaps it’s the plethora of information, both credible and not, available and the boom of sports betting across the country that has led to more market inefficiencies. I’m not sure, but it’s a theory at least worth testing, which is why this week I will have fewer early-week plays and more later-week plays. TSI has been outstanding against the closing lines, and while we’re up on the season on best bets it doesn’t feel like the CLV and winning bets ratio has been as linear as you’d expect.
Bet: Arizona State +3.5 or better
Bet: Baylor +1.5 (Play to pick)
College Football Week 4 Predictions:
If you follow me on X (@TShoeIndex), you probably saw me posting results so far from the 2024 season and how my T Shoe Index has performed vs. the closing line. After analyzing these results, thinking back to last year, and having a chat with a bettor I respect, I came to the conclusion that the CFB market doesn’t seem as efficient as it did maybe 3-5 years ago. Maybe I’m wrong and I’m blinded by too much anecdotal evidence, but it feels like CLV in college football has not been as much of a factor lately.Perhaps it’s the plethora of information, both credible and not, available and the boom of sports betting across the country that has led to more market inefficiencies. I’m not sure, but it’s a theory at least worth testing, which is why this week I will have fewer early-week plays and more later-week plays. TSI has been outstanding against the closing lines, and while we’re up on the season on best bets it doesn’t feel like the CLV and winning bets ratio has been as linear as you’d expect.
Texas Tech vs Arizona State (+3.5), O/U 60.5
I faded Texas Tech last week vs North Texas and they proceeded to put on an absolute fireworks show and ran the Mean Green out of the building. Meanwhile, I was hesitant to pull the trigger on a Sun Devils team that TSI showed value on after the line got steamed six points the other way. This week, I intend to right both wrongs by backing the Sun Devils getting 3.5 points on the road. TSI makes this line +3, so we’re getting the hook of value, but the 2024-only data heavily favors the Sun Devils here, indicating they have a great chance to win this game outright. I don’t think the market has caught up to them, and conversely, everyone is going to remember Texas Tech almost hanging a 50-burger in the first half last week.Bet: Arizona State +3.5 or better
Colorado vs Baylor (+1.5), O/U 53
VSiN host Tim Murray and I discussed the importance of situational spots during our conversation on the VSiN CFB Betting Podcast over the summer, especially when those align with my numbers. This is one of those glorious instances. Colorado is in a major letdown spot after thumping rival Colorado State last week, while Baylor made light work of Air Force. Perception-wise, these teams couldn’t be more opposite. Colorado dominates the headlines while I don’t know the last time I heard a media member say the word “Baylor”. Perfect. TSI projects the Bears as 1.5-point favorites, and the on-field performances of these teams so far make Baylor an even bigger favorite than that. When the situation and the number are telling me the same thing, I think it’s a great bet.Bet: Baylor +1.5 (Play to pick)
