VSiN analyst Jonathan Von Tobel looks at the initial line moves for Week 12 of the college football regular season.
As we approach the first iteration of the 12-team College Football Playoff the regular season is getting wild.
Over the weekend two top five teams – Georgia and Miami – lost outright. When it comes to the Bulldogs, the market saw it coming.
Since Circa Sports opened its college football lines last Sunday there was a steady move in favor of Ole Miss. The Rebels closed as 2-point underdogs for the contest, but the betting market never let it touch a full field goal throughout the week.
Reading the market does give you a sense of where respected opinions are, which has been the goal of this article throughout the season. So, let’s dive into the initial line moves from Sunday’s openers for Week 12 and see what the market is telling us.
College Football Week 12 Odds Report
In the two games since Bert Emanuel Jr. was injured, Central Michigan’s offense has been a slog. In total, the Chippewas have scored 20 points and amassed 418 yards. They have converted 9-of-26 third down attempts (34.6%). It is no surprise to see the market continue to fade this team. Circa Sports opened this game at -14 but -16 is the predominant number as of Monday morning. This is a week after the line against Bowling Green was bet up 4.5 points. The total was hammered over on Sunday as well. It opened 46.5 yesterday and the consensus number is 50.5 with 51 the number at Circa Sports as of Monday.
North Carolina has quietly turned its season around, and the betting market is in on the improvements. The Tar Heels are coming off of a bye week with two straight wins and covers in their pocket. It is a massive improvement from the 0-6-1 ATS start to the year. The same cannot be said for Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons had won two straight against UConn and Stanford before a loss to Cal on Friday night, but Wake covered just one of those two wins. In ACC play the Demon Deacons are 1-2-2 ATS with a -1.8 cover margin. This number opened just over a touchdown at Circa Sports on Sunday, and those who shape the market deemed it too short. As of Monday morning, the Tar Heels are laying 11 across the board.
Missouri needed a scoop-and-score with :31 seconds left to beat Oklahoma on Saturday. On the field, head coach Eli Drinkwitz proudly proclaimed, “This keeps us in the playoff hunt. That’s right, I said it, playoff hunt.” Well, the market isn’t buying what Drinkwitz is selling. The Tigers are just 3-2 SU/2-3 ATS against SEC foes this season, and they have failed to cover by 10.1 points per game. On the other side, the Gamecocks are rolling. South Carolina has won and covered three straight contests. In seven SEC games it is 4-3 SU/6-1 ATS with a +15.6 cover margin. The Gamecocks did not need a late score to dispatch the Sooners at home. They went to Norman and smoked Oklahoma by 26 points. Circa Sports opened this line at South Carolina -10 but it was bet up 3.5 points to the consensus number of 13.5 on the board right now.
There are fewer teams more overvalued by the betting market than Oregon State this season. The Beavers took an outright loss on Saturday to San José State as a 3-point home favorite. Oregon State is now 2-7 SU and ATS on the season with a -4.6 cover margin. The market moved against the Beavers last week, and it would seem we’re seeing the same thing this week. Circa Sports opened Oregon State as a 6-point favorite over Air Force on Sunday. The line is down to -4 as of Monday morning. Bettors also pounced on this low opening total of 41.5 and bet it up 3.5 points. Neither team has a strong record to the over, but the matchup seems to scream points. The Beavers are 106th in opponents EPA per rush and 121st in explosive play rate allowed. The Falcons sit at 119th in EPA per dropback and 101st in explosive play rate on defense.
Kansas State has been a slightly more impressive team at home than on the road. The Wildcats lost at Houston last time we saw which dropped them to 3-2 SU/1-4 ATS on the road. At home, Kansas State is 4-0 SU but just 2-2 ATS with a +5.6 spread differential. Overall, it’s been a mediocre season for the Wildcats by betting standards, but the market moved in their direction regardless on Sunday. Arizona State is coming off a win and cover at home over UCF without running back Cam Skattebo. The Big 12 leader in all-purpose yards will determine where this number closes this weekend. If Skattebo can play, this number will head back toward the Sun Devils. The question is whether or not his status is enough to get this line under the key number.
