Week 9 College Football Betting Trends:
The following college football betting trends piece is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the college football games of Week 9. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s college football board.AJ’s Angles
These are the top trends and systems for this week’s CFB games, handpicked by VSiN analyst AJ Makinen.— The last 11 games of the Hawaii-Nevada series have gone UNDER the total
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 46.5)
— College football teams seeking revenge and having at least four more wins on the season than their opponent have been very successful, going 95-15 SU and 74-31-5 ATS (70.5%) since 2016.
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI FL (-21 vs. Florida State)
— Over the last decade, teams that won a conference game despite gaining less than 250 yards of offense have used that victory to build momentum, going 76-45 ATS (62.8%) in the follow-up game.
System Match (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA (-4 vs. Maryland), DUKE (+12 vs. SMU)
— MICHIGAN STATE is on a 1-13 ATS skid in conference play when coming off an upset win
System Match (FADE): MICHIGAN STATE (+4 at Michigan)
In games featuring two ranked teams with the home team being a double-digit favorite, UNDER the total boasts an impressive 38-15 (71.7%) record since the beginning of the 2017 season. When adding a qualifier of totals higher than 56 to that system, the UNDER record jumps to 22-7 (75.9%).
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in Illinois-Oregon (o/u at 54.5), PLAY UNDER in Missouri-Alabama (o/u at 55.5)
CFB DK Betting Splits system #9: Since the start of the ’22 season, on games with totals of 45 or lower, 70%+ super majority handle bettors siding with the Under have gone 25-13 (63.2%). Because not many public bettors embrace betting Unders, this doesn’t produce a lot of plays but the super handle majority has been sharp.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MICHIGAN STATE-MICHIGAN, AUBURN-KENTUCKY
— VIRGINIA TECH is 6-20 (23.1%) ATS in L26 games following up a SU win
System Match: FADE VIRGINIA TECH (-10 vs. GA Tech)
— E MICHIGAN is 39-15 (72.2%) ATS in Road/Neutral games since ’16
System Match: PLAY EASTERN MICHIGAN (-3 at Akron)
— FAVORITES are 8-1 ATS in Kent State-WMU series since 2000
System Match: PLAY WESTERN MICHIGAN (-16.5 vs. Kent State)
#1 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE +20.5 at Jax State (+9.7)
Strategies using CFB DraftKings Betting Splits data
One of the most touted features on VSiN.com, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These systems have updated language and records heading into the 2024 season. Note that these systems include only games matching two FBS opponents against one another.Here are the college football betting trend systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of Tuesday afternoon. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage. There will be an updated betting splits article on Saturday morning.
CFB DK Betting Splits system #1: Going back to the start of the 2022 season, when 80% or more of the handle was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group has gone just 82-97 ATS (45.8%). This angle has produced at around 46% consistently since first discovered. If you see the big green lights on the VSiN betting splits handle page 80% or higher, it is best to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAM HOUSTON STATE, JACKSONVILLE STATE, BOISE STATE, NAVY, INDIANA, TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO, TEMPLE, BYU, JAMES MADISON, NORTHERN ILLINOIS, UCONN, TCU, BAYLOR, ILLINOIS, MIAMI FL, TROY, UTAH STATE, ARIZONA, MICHIGAN STATE, SMU, SAN JOSE STATE, COLORADO, NEVADA
CFB DK Betting Splits system #2: When 75%+ of the number of bets were on a particular side of an ATS wager since the start of the ’22 season, this majority group has gone just 164-188 ATS (46.6%). In 2022 it was 46.5%, in 2023 it was 46.7%, maintaining incredible consistency. Again, if you see the big green lights on the VSiN betting splits # of BETS page 75% or higher, it is best to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAM HOUSTON STATE, LOUISIANA TECH, BOISE STATE, NAVY, INDIANA, MEMPHIS, TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO, BYU, JAMES MADISON, WESTERN MICHIGAN, UCONN, MINNESOTA, ILLINOIS, MIAMI FL, ARKANSAS STATE, UTAH, PENN STATE, KANSAS STATE, COLORADO, NEVADA
CFB DK Betting Splits system #3: When the majority of the handle was on road favorites for an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group is just 164-190 ATS (46.3%). Recreational bettors love road favorites because they are most often the better team. The point spread is the great equalizer. Bettors improved slightly on this system in ’23 but there is still plenty of reason to believe in and fade these over-backed road favorites.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAM HOUSTON STATE, LIBERTY, LOUISVILLE, BOISE STATE, TULANE, TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO, BYU, NORTHERN ILLINOIS, WAKE FOREST, PENN STATE, SMU, NEVADA
CFB DK Betting Splits system #4: When the majority of the handle has been on road underdogs for an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone 142-132 ATS (51.8%). This is less than the usual systems I like to present to readers, but this is a nice advantage against the usual majority win rates, and goes to show that being on the “smart” side of majority handle can pay off.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): GEORGIA SOUTHERN, BOWLING GREEN, NORTH CAROLINA, CHARLOTTE, GEORGIA STATE, TEMPLE, ILLINOIS, OREGON STATE, LOUISIANA-MONROE, NEW MEXICO, TROY, UTAH STATE, MICHIGAN STATE, LSU, AUBURN, SAN JOSE STATE
CFB DK Betting Splits system #5: When the majority number of bets has backed road underdogs for an ATS wager over the past two seasons, this majority group has gone 126-111 ATS (53.2%). This is even better than the handle numbers in #4 actually, and though it was down a bit for 2023, it suggests that following public bettors getting behind road dogs can be an actionable strategy.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): GEORGIA SOUTHERN, GEORGIA TECH, GEORGIA STATE, TEXAS TECH, ILLINOIS, OREGON STATE, LOUISIANA-MONROE, MICHIGAN STATE, LSU, SAN JOSE STATE
CFB DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority of bets have backed a team in an ATS wager in non-Saturday games, their 2022 and 2023 season record was 150-90 (62.5%)! This goes to show that public bettors can be better performers with fewer games to choose from. A lot of times their mistake proves to be taking too many games on a Saturday.
System Matches (PLAY ALL):
Tuesday: SAM HOUSTON STATE, LOUISIANA TECH
Wednesday: LIBERTY, JACKSONVILLE STATE
Thursday: GEORGIA SOUTHERN, PITTSBURGH
Friday: LOUISVILLE, BOISE STATE, USC
CFB DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority of the handle backed the team with more season wins in a FBS vs. FBS game for an ATS wager over the past two seasons, this majority group has gone just 313-354 ATS (46.9%). More than not, bettors like to back the “better team” in a matchup, regardless of what the point spread indicates. Again, the point spread is always the eternal equalizer.
CFB DK Betting Splits system #8: The average college football total has steadied at about 54. In games since the start of the ’22 season where the totals reached 57 or higher and odds makers thus expected them to be a little more explosive when majority handle bettors favored the Under, they have been relatively sharp, going 51-38 (57.3%). This is pretty rare, as it occurred in only 89 of 1,567 games.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE-JACKSONVILLE STATE, NORTH CAROLINA-VIRGINIA, GEORGIA STATE-APPALACHIAN STATE, KENT STATE-WESTERN MICHIGAN, TEXAS TECH-TCU, OKLAHOMA STATE-BAYLOR
CFB DK Betting Splits system #9: Since the start of the 2022 season, on games with totals of 45 or lower, 70%+ super majority handle bettors siding with the Under have gone 25-13 (63.2%). Because not many public bettors embrace betting Unders, this doesn’t produce a lot of plays, but the super handle majority has been sharp.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): MICHIGAN STATE-MICHIGAN, AUBURN-KENTUCKY
CFB DK Betting Splits system #10: Since the start of the 2022 season, on games with totals of 45 or lower, 75%+ super majority number of bets bettors bucking the low total and siding with the Over have gone 52-34 (60.5%). This system improved its win percentage in 2023. Again, not a ton of plays here in the grand scheme, but the more public option of number of bets has been pretty good when going against the grain.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): BUFFALO-OHIO, NORTHWESTERN-IOWA, UTAH-HOUSTON
College Football Revenge Handicapping
The following college football betting trends are methodologies for handicapping revenge situations in college football, including the best and worst teams in revenge mode, and the best betting systems uncovered. Revenge is defined as having lost a game to a specific opponent in the prior or current season only.Best & Worst College Football Revenge Teams (since 2016)
Best
* FRESNO STATE is 13-12 SU and 16-7 ATS (69.6%) in revenge mode since 2016
System Match (PLAY): FRESNO STATE (-5 vs. San Jose State)
* BUFFALO is 14-13 SU and 18-9 ATS (66.7%) in revenge mode since 2016
System Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (+6 at Ohio)
* CALIFORNIA is 19-20 SU and 24-15 ATS (61.5%) in revenge mode since 2016
System Match (PLAY): CALIFORNIA (-9.5 vs. Oregon State)
* NAVY is 15-23 SU and 25-13 ATS (65.8%) in revenge mode since 2016
System Match (PLAY): NAVY (+13 vs. Notre Dame)
College football revenge systems
Neutral-field underdogs are great in revengeSince the start of the 2016 season, neutral-field underdogs playing in revenge mode have gone 47-29 ATS (61.8%).
System Match (PLAY): NAVY (+13 vs. Notre Dame)
Home/Road revenge line range angles that have thrived
Double-digit road favorites have been solid producers in the revenge role, going 51-37 ATS (58%) since 2016.
System Match (PLAY): NORTHERN ILLINOIS (-12.5 at Ball State)
Revenge teams that lost as double-digit favorites last time out
Teams looking to avenge outright losses where they were double-digit favorites have struggled, going just 106-118 ATS (47.3%) since 2016.
System Match (FADE): NORTH CAROLINA (+4 at UVA)
Current won-lost records are a good indicator of revenge chances
College football teams seeking revenge and having at least four more wins on the season than their opponent have been very successful, going 95-15 SU and 74-31-5 ATS (70.5%) since 2016.
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI FL (-21 vs. Florida State)
Key stats of the team seeking revenge matter
Better defensive teams are more successful in exacting revenge than prolific offense. Since the start of the 2016 season, teams allowing 24 PPG or less have gone 652-564 ATS (53.6%).
System Match (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH, BOSTON COLLEGE, UNLV, BOWLING GREEN, MIAMI FL, NORTHERN ILLINOIS, NAVY, MICHIGAN STATE, LOUISIANA-MONROE, TEXAS A&M, KANSAS, ARKANSAS, CALIFORNIA, NORTHWESTERN
Revenge is sweet against porous defensive foes
Teams seeking revenge against a team that is allowing 35 PPG or more have been very successful, going 214-166 ATS (56.3%) since 2016.
System Match (PLAY ALL): NORTHERN ILLINOIS (-12.5 at Ball State), GEORGIA STATE (+8 at App State), TCU (-7 vs. Texas Tech)
College Football Systems Based on AP Poll Rankings
The following college football betting systems take into account whether or not teams in a non-neutral field game are ranked in the AP poll.CFB AP Poll Rankings System #1 – Games featuring two ranked teams
In games featuring two ranked teams since 2017, HOME TEAMS are NOW 182-89 SU and 155-108-8 ATS (58.9%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OREGON (-21.5 vs. Illinois), ALABAMA (-13.5 vs. Missouri), VANDERBILT (+18.5 vs. Texas), TEXAS A&M (-2.5 vs. LSU)
Digging deeper into that data, you will find that when the home team has been ranked better, those teams have gone 106-20 SU and 77-45-4 ATS (63.1%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OREGON (-21.5 vs. Illinois), ALABAMA (-13.5 vs. Missouri)
CFB AP Poll Rankings System #4
In college football games featuring TWO RANKED TEAMS with the home team being a double-digit favorite, UNDER the total boasts an impressive 38-15 (71.7%) record since the beginning of the 2017 season. When adding a qualifier of totals higher than 56 to that system, the UNDER record jumps to 22-7 (75.9%).
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in Illinois-Oregon (o/u at 54.5), PLAY UNDER in Missouri-Alabama (o/u at 55.5)
College Football Conference Play Systems and Trends
These college football betting trends are from an article posted in September 2024 detailing top trends and systems for college football conference play.Teams playing as conference road dogs of more than seven points after not having played since 14 days ago are on a 135-103 ATS (56.7%) surge since 2010.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NONE YET
* WATCH FOR: LOUISIANA-MONROE (+7 at South Alabama), WASHINGTON (+6.5 at Indiana)
Top Team Trends in Conference Games
Negative FADE trends:
• UCF is on a 1-11 ATS skid in conference games when coming off a close loss of seven points or less
System Match (FADE): UCF (-1 vs. BYU)
• USC has not handled outright road wins well, going 0-8 ATS in the next game if against conference opponents
System Match (FADE): USC (-14.5 vs. Rutgers)
• MICHIGAN STATE is on a 1-13 ATS skid in conference play when coming off an upset win
System Match (FADE): MICHIGAN STATE (+4 at Michigan)
• USC has lost nine of its last 10 games ATS as a favorite in conference play
System Match (FADE): USC (-14.5 vs. Rutgers)
• UCF has lost its last nine games ATS as a favorite in conference play
System Match (FADE): UCF (-1 vs. BYU)
• MEMPHIS is on a 4-17 ATS skid in conference games when coming off an outright win
System Match (FADE): MEMPHIS (-18.5 vs. Charlotte)
• AKRON is on a 4-15 ATS skid in MAC play when coming off a road loss
System Match (FADE): AKRON (+3 vs. E Michigan)
Positive FOLLOW trends:
• TROY has won eight of its last nine Sun Belt road games ATS
System Match (PLAY): TROY (+7.5 at Arkansas State)
• PENN STATE has become a reliable Big Ten favorite, 17-7 ATS in its last 24
System Match (PLAY): PENN STATE (-6.5 at Wisconsin)
• GEORGIA STATE is on a solid road Sun Belt run of 13-3 ATS
System Match (PLAY): GEORGIA STATE (+8 at Appalachian State)
