This Week’s College Football Betting Trends:
The following college football betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the college football games of Week 4. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s college football board.AJ’s Angles
These are the top college football betting trends and systems for this week’s CFB games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.-Double-digit road favorites have been solid producers in the revenge role, going 47-34 ATS (58%) since 2016.
System Match (PLAY): FRESNO STATE (-14.5 at New Mexico)
-When both teams are ranked but the home team has been single-digit favorites or underdogs, they have gone 54-15 SU and 47-19-3 ATS (71.2%) since 2017.
System Match (PLAY): NEBRASKA (-8.5 vs. Illinois)
(385) VANDERBILT at (386) MISSOURI
*Under the total is 6-0 in the last six of the Vandy-Mizzou series in Columbia
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 53.5)
Huge Week-To-Week Point Spread Movement
CFB teams that see their point spread in one game being at least 52 points worse than the prior game have performed very well in that follow-up contest since 2012, going 94-63 ATS (59.9%).
System Match (PLAY ALL): GEORGIA TECH (+10.5 at Louisville), GEORGIA SOUTHERN (+36 at Ole Miss)
* VIRGINIA TECH is 5-19 (20.8%) ATS in the last 24 games following up a SU win
System Match: FADE VIRGINIA TECH (-3.5 vs. Rutgers)
* NORTHERN ILLINOIS is 5-16-1 (23.8%) ATS in the last 22 home games
System Match: FADE NORTHERN ILLINOIS (-14 vs. Buffalo)
#1 UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections: PENN STATE -49 vs. Kent State (+12.7 difference)
Strategies Using CFB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These systems have updated language and records heading into the 2024 season. Note that these systems only include games matching two FBS opponents against one another.Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage. There will be an updated betting splits article on Saturday morning.
CFB DK Betting Splits system #1: Going back to the start of the 2022 season, when 80% or more of the handle was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group has gone just 82-97 ATS (45.8%). This angle has produced at around 46% consistently since first discovered. If you see the big green lights on the VSiN betting splits handle page 80% or higher, it is best to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): OHIO STATE, INDIANA, WEST VIRGINIA, ARMY, CENTRAL MICHIGAN, UTAH STATE, BUFFALO, RUTGERS, USC, NOTRE DAME, LSU, TCU, NORTH TEXAS, UCONN, LOUISIANA TECH, SAM HOUSTON STATE, SOUTH CAROLINA, TENNESSEE, OLE MISS, BOSTON COLLEGE, OREGON STATE
CFB DK Betting Splits system #2: When 75%+ of the number of bets were on a particular side of an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone just 164-188 ATS (46.6%). In 2022, it was 46.5%; in 2023, it was 46.7%, maintaining incredible consistency. Again, if you see the big green lights on the VSiN betting splits # of bets page 75% or higher, it is best to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): OHIO STATE, INDIANA, ARMY, TULANE, KENTUCKY, UTAH STATE, USC, NOTRE DAME, MEMPHIS, DUKE, MISSOURI, TCU, MIAMI (FL), TOLEDO, SOUTH CAROLINA, TENNESSEE, OLE MISS, TEXAS, OREGON STATE
CFB DK Betting Splits system #3: When the majority of the handle was on road favorites for an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group is just 164-190 ATS (46.3%). Recreational bettors love road favorites because they are most often the better team. The point spread is the great equalizer. Bettors improved slightly on this system in 2023 but there is still plenty of reason to believe in and fade these over-backed road favorites.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TULANE, FLORIDA, VIRGINIA, UTAH STATE, USC, UTAH, DUKE, TCU, IOWA, TENNESSEE
CFB DK Betting Splits system #4: When the majority of the handle has been on road underdogs for an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone 142-132 ATS (51.8%). This is less than the usual systems I like to present to readers, but this is a nice advantage against the usual majority win rates, and goes to show that being on the “smart” side of majority handle can pay off.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): SOUTH ALABAMA, HOUSTON, JAMES MADISON, NC STATE, SOUTHERN MISS, BUFFALO, GEORGIA TECH, RUTGERS, ARKANSAS, UTEP, EAST CAROLINA, NORTHWESTERN, BOWLING GREEN
CFB DK Betting Splits system #5: When the majority number of bets has backed road underdogs for an ATS wager over the past two seasons, this majority group has gone 126-111 ATS (53.2%). This is even better than the handle numbers in #4 actually, and though it was down a bit for 2023, it suggests that following public bettors getting behind road dogs can be an actionable strategy.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): NC STATE, GEORGIA TECH, RUTGERS, ARKANSAS, CALIFORNIA
CFB DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority of number of bets has backed a team in an ATS wager in non-Saturday games, their 2022 and 2023 season record was 150-90 (62.5%)! This goes to show that public bettors can be better performers with less games to choose from. A lot of times, their mistake proves to be taking too many games on a Saturday.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): Thursday: APPALACHIAN STATE
Friday: SYRACUSE, NEBRASKA, WASHINGTON STATE
CFB DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority of the handle backed the team with more season wins in a FBS vs. FBS contest for an ATS wager over the past two seasons, this majority group has gone just 313-354 ATS (46.9%). More than not, bettors like to back the “better team” in a matchup, regardless of what the point spread indicates. Again, the point spread is always the eternal equalizer.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SYRACUSE, OHIO STATE, NC STATE, INDIANA, ARMY, UTAH STATE, SOUTHERN MISS, PENN STATE, LSU, NOTRE DAME, GEORGIA TECH, DUKE, MISSOURI, SAM HOUSTON STATE, NORTH TEXAS, SOUTH CAROLINA, OLE MISS, TEXAS, OREGON STATE
CFB DK Betting Splits system #8: The average college football total has steadied at about 54. In games since the start of the 2022 season where the totals reached 57 or higher and oddsmakers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, when majority handle bettors favored the Under, they have been relatively sharp, going 51-38 (57.3%). This is pretty rare, as it occurred in only 89 of 1567 games.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): STANFORD-SYRACUSE, FLORIDA-MISSISSIPPI STATE, SOUTHERN MISS-JAX STATE, GA TECH-LOUISVILLE, TULSA-LA TECH, FRESNO STATE-NEW MEXICO
CFB DK Betting Splits system #9: Since the start of the 2022 season, on games with totals of 45 or lower, 70%+ super majority handle bettors siding with the Under have gone 25-13 (63.2%). Because not many public bettors embrace betting Unders, this doesn’t produce a lot of plays but the super handle majority has been sharp.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): RICE-ARMY, BUFFALO-NORTHERN ILLINOIS, RUTGERS-VA TECH, CALIFORNIA-FLORIDA STATE
CFB DK Betting Splits system #10: Since the start of the 2022 season, on games with totals of 45 or lower, 75%+ super majority number of bets bettors bucking the low total and siding with the Over have gone 52-34 (60.5%). This system improved its win percentage in 2023. Again, not a ton of plays here in the grand scheme but the more public option of number of bets has been pretty good when going against the grain.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): NEBRASKA-ILLINOIS, OHIO-KENTUCKY, RUTGERS-VA TECH, MIAMI (OH)-NOTRE DAME, NORTHWESTERN-WASHINGTON, NEW MEXICO STATE-SAM HOUSTON STATE
