Week 12 College Football Betting Trends:
The following college football betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the college football games of Week 12. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s college football board.AJ’s Angles
These are the top college football betting trends and systems for this week’s CFB games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.In Week 12 or later in the season, when ranked road teams are favored by more than 6 points against non-ranked hosts, they are on a surge of 97-10 SU and 64-40-3 ATS (61.5%%) since 2017.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TEXAS, TULANE, CLEMSON, OHIO STATE, PENN STATE, LOUISVILLE, BOISE STATE, OREGON, WASHINGTON STATE
EASTERN MICHIGAN is an impressive MAC road underdog, 18-4 ATS in the last 22
System Match (PLAY): EASTERN MICHIGAN (+10.5 at Ohio)
In college football games featuring two ranked teams with the home team being a double-digit favorite, Under the total boasts an impressive 40-15 (72.7%) record since the beginning of the 2017 season.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): Mizzou-South Carolina (o/u at 44.5), Tennessee-Georgia (o/u at 48.5)
* Home teams are on a 9-2 SU and ATS run in Baylor-WVU series
System Match (PLAY): WEST VIRGINIA (+2.5 vs. Baylor)
Teams seeking revenge against a team that is currently allowing 35 PPG or more have been successful, going 216-170 ATS (56%) since 2016.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BUFFALO (-3.5 vs. Ball State), EAST CAROLINA (-14.5 at Tulsa)
CFB teams playing at home in conference games and coming off a blowout loss by more than 45 points are just 43-73 ATS (37.1%) since 2010.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TEMPLE (-2.5 vs. FAU), PURDUE (+28.5 vs. Penn State
* HAWAII is 10-25 (28.6%) ATS as Favorite since 2015
System Match: FADE HAWAII (-2.5 at Utah State)
#1 TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the MAKINEN BETTORS RATINGS projections: CLEMSON-PITT OVER 54 (+7.1 difference)
Strategies Using CFB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These systems have updated language and records heading into the 2024 season. Note that these systems only include games matching two FBS opponents against one another.Here are the college football betting trends, systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of Tuesday afternoon. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage. There will be an updated betting splits article on Saturday morning.
Here are the systems with updated language and records (from midway through this season) we will continue to track for the rest of the 2024 season.
CFB DK Betting Splits system #1: Going back to the start of the 2022 season, when 80% or more of the handle was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group has gone just 116-133 ATS (46.6%), although a slight improvement at 34-36 ATS in 2024. This angle has produced at around a 46% consistently since first discovered, so I would expect an end-of-season slowdown. If you see the big green lights on the VSiN betting splits handle page 80% or higher, it is best to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): EAST CAROLINA, NORTH TEXAS, LA TECH, TULANE, OHIO STATE, CALIFORNIA, PENN STATE, NOTRE DAME, AIR FORCE, BAYLOR, NEBRASKA, GEORGIA STATE, MARYLAND, SOUTH ALABAMA, TEXAS STATE, OREGON, MEMPHIS, WASHINGTON STATE, UNLV
CFB DK Betting Splits system #2: When 75%+ of the number of bets were on a particular side of an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone just 231-251 ATS (47.9%). In 2022, it was 46.5%. In 2023, it was 46.7%, maintaining incredible consistency. This year, it is actually 67-63 ATS, so I would expect this to cool down over the rest of the season. Again, if you see the big green lights on the VSiN betting splits # of bets page 75% or higher, it is best to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TEXAS, OHIO STATE, JACKSONVILLE STATE, PENN STATE, LSU, JAMES MADISON, BOISE STATE, TENNESSEE, OREGON, WASHINGTON STATE
CFB DK Betting Splits system #3: When the majority of the handle was on road favorites for an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group is just 219-241 ATS (47.6%). Recreational bettors love road favorites because they are most often the better team. The point spread is the great equalizer. Bettors improved slightly on this system in 2023 and again in 2024 so far, but there is still plenty of reason to believe in and fade these over-backed road favorites.
System Matches (FADE ALL): EAST CAROLINA, NORTH TEXAS, TEXAS, TULANE, OHIO STATE, SAM HOUSTON STATE, PENN STATE, LOUISVILLE, LSU, BAYLOR, BOISE STATE, OREGON, WASHINGTON STATE
CFB DK Betting Splits system #4: When the majority of the handle has been on road underdogs for an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone 177-167 ATS (51.5%). This is less than the usual systems I like to present to readers, but this is a nice advantage against the usual majority win rates, and goes to show that being on the “smart” side of the majority handle can pay off.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): WYOMING, HOUSTON, LA TECH, MICHIGAN STATE, TROY, NEBRASKA, SOUTH ALABAMA, TENNESSEE, NEW MEXICO STATE, CINCINNATI, KANSAS
CFB DK Betting Splits system #5: When the majority number of bets has backed road underdogs for an ATS wager over the past two seasons, this majority group has gone 146-124 ATS (54.1%). This is even better than the handle numbers in #4 actually, and it is off to a strong 20-13 ATS start in 2024. It suggests that following public bettors getting behind road dogs can be an actionable strategy.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEBRASKA, MISSOURI, TENNESSEE, WAKE FOREST
CFB DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority of the number of bets has backed a team in an ATS wager in non-Saturday games, their 2022 and 2023 season record was 62.5%! This year, it’s just 18-25 ATS, dropping the overall system mark to 168-115 ATS (59.4%). Still, it goes to show that public bettors can be better performers with fewer games to choose from. A lot of times, their mistake proves to be taking too many games on a Saturday.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): Tuesday: TOLEDO, BOWLING GREEN, BUFFALO
Wednesday: MIAMI (OH), OHIO, NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Thursday: EAST CAROLINA
Friday: COLORADO STATE, NORTH TEXAS, WASHINGTON, ARIZONA
CFB DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority of the handle backed the team with more season wins in an FBS vs. FBS contest for an ATS wager over the past two seasons, this majority group has gone just 405-444 ATS (47.7%), even after a 92-90 ATS start to this season. More than not, bettors like to back the “better team” in a matchup, regardless of what the point spread indicates. Again, the point spread is always the eternal equalizer. I would expect the late season results to bring this year’s record back into normalcy.
CFB DK Betting Splits system #8: The average college football total has steadied at about 52. In games since the start of the 2022 season where the totals reached 57 or higher and oddsmakers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, when majority handle bettors favored the Under, they have been relatively sharp, going 57-44 (56.4%). This remains pretty rare, as it occurred in only 12 of 406 games this season.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): LOUISVILLE-STANFORD, ARKANSAS STATE-GEORGIA STATE, UAB-MEMPHIS, WASHINGTON STATE-NEW MEXICO
CFB DK Betting Splits system #9: Since the start of the 2022 season, on games with totals of 45 or lower, 70%+ super majority handle bettors siding with the Under have gone 26-15 (63.4%). Because not many public bettors embrace betting Unders, this doesn’t produce a lot of plays, but the super handle majority has been sharp.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): AKRON-N ILLINOIS
CFB DK Betting Splits system #10: Since the start of the 2022 season, on games with totals of 45 or lower, 75%+ super majority number of bets bettors bucking the low total and siding with the Over have gone 76-49 (60.8%), improving this season a bit after a 24-15 start. This system also improved its win percentage in 2023, so it’s on an upward climb. Again, not a ton of plays here in the grand scheme, but the more public option of the number of bets has been pretty good when going against the grain.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): HOUSTON-ARIZONA, OHIO STATE-NORTHWESTERN, SAM HOUSTON STATE-KENNESAW STATE, OREGON STATE-AIR FORCE, MIZZOU-S CAROLINA
CFB DK Betting Splits system #11: Since the start of the 2024 season, on games in which there has been a slight majority number of money line bets on a team (51-60%), bettors boast a respectable 26-19 SU (57.7%) record for +5.37 units of profit and an ROI of 11.9%. This has happened in only about one of every ten games on average, so it is rare.
System Matches (PLAY ALL on ML): NORTH TEXAS, ARIZONA, TEMPLE, HAWAII, ARKANSAS STATE, TENNESSEE
CFB DK Betting Splits system #12: Since the start of the 2024 season, on games in which there has been a majority number of money line bets on a road underdog of +3 points or fewer, bettors are 12-8 SU (60%) for +6.04 units of profit and an ROI of 30.2%. This is an angle in which bettors tend to go away from their comfort zone and have been rewarded.
System Match (PLAY on ML): ARKANSAS STATE
College Football Revenge Handicapping
The following are methodologies for handicapping revenge situations in college football, including the best and worst teams in revenge mode and the best betting systems uncovered. Revenge is defined by having lost a game to a specific opponent in the prior or current season only.Best and Worst College Football Revenge Teams (since ’16)
Best
* KENT STATE is 9-21 SU and 18-12 ATS (60%) in revenge mode since 2016
System Match (PLAY): KENT STATE (+30 at Miami (OH))
* C MICHIGAN is 17-12 SU and 16-12 ATS (57.1%) in revenge mode since 2016
System Match (PLAY): CENTRAL MICHIGAN (+14.5 at Toledo)
Worst
* MARSHALL is 11-9 SU and 7-13 ATS (35%) in revenge mode since 2016
System Match (FADE): MARSHALL (-8 vs. Coastal Carolina)
* MASSACHUSETTS is 3-24 SU and 12-15 ATS (44.4%) in revenge mode since 2016
System Match (FADE): UMASS (+14 vs. Liberty)
* CINCINNATI is 10-13 SU and 8-15 ATS (34.8%) in revenge mode since 2016
System Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (+8.5 at Iowa State)
College Football Revenge Systems
Home/Road revenge line range angles that have thrivedDouble-digit road favorites have been solid producers in the revenge role, going 51-40 ATS (56%) since 2016.
System Match (PLAY): EAST CAROLINA (-14.5 at Tulsa)
Revenge teams that lost as double-digit favorites last time out
Teams looking to avenge outright losses where they were double-digit favorites have struggled, going just 108-119 ATS (47.6%) since 2016.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SOUTH ALABAMA (+7 at LA Lafayette), SMU (-17 vs. BC)
Current won-lost records are a good indicator of revenge chances
College football teams seeking revenge and having at least four more wins on the season than their opponent have been very successful, going 99-17 SU and 75-36-5 ATS (67.6%) since 2016.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): COLORADO STATE (-10.5 vs. Wyoming), BYU (-3 vs. Kansas)
Key stats of the team seeking revenge matter
Better defensive teams are more successful in exacting revenge than prolific offense. Since the start of the 2016 season, teams allowing 24 PPG or less have gone 672-585 ATS (53.5%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MARSHALL, LOUISIANA TECH, BYU, SMU, TENNESSEE, SOUTH CAROLINA, CINCINNATI, COLORADO
Revenge is sweet against porous defensive foes
Teams seeking revenge against a team that is currently allowing 35 PPG or more have been very successful, going 216-170 ATS (56%) since 2016.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BUFFALO (-3.5 vs Ball State), EAST CAROLINA (-14.5 at Tulsa)
College Football Systems Based on AP Poll Rankings
The following college football betting trends and systems take into account whether or not teams in a non-neutral field game are ranked in the AP pollCFB AP Poll Rankings System #1 – Games featuring two ranked teams
In games featuring two ranked teams since 2017, home teams are now 187-92 SU and 161-110-8 ATS (59.4%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SOUTH CAROLINA (-12.5 vs Mizzou), GEORGIA (-10 vs Tennessee)
Digging deeper into that data, you will find that when the home team has been ranked better, those teams have gone 108-21 SU and 79-46-4 ATS (63.2%).
System Match (PLAY): SOUTH CAROLINA (-12.5 vs. Mizzou)
CFB AP Poll Rankings System #2 – Road ranked teams vs. non-ranked hosts
In games Week 12 or later in the season, ranked road teams are now 114-27 SU and 81-57-3 ATS (58.7%) vs. non-ranked home teams since 2017.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TEXAS, TULANE, CLEMSON, OHIO STATE, PENN STATE, LOUISVILLE, LSU, BOISE STATE, OREGON, WASHINGTON STATE
Digging deeper into this data, you will find that when these ranked road teams are favored by more than 6 points against non-ranked hosts, they have gone 97-10 SU and 64-40-3 ATS (61.5%%) in that same Week 12 and later time span.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TEXAS, TULANE, CLEMSON, OHIO STATE, PENN STATE, LOUISVILLE, BOISE STATE, OREGON, WASHINGTON STATE
CFB AP Poll Rankings System #3 – Home ranked teams vs. non-ranked visitors
In games Week 12 or later in the season, there has been a huge discrepancy in the performance of ranked home teams against non-ranked visitors at the 12-point favorite line mark. As favorites of 12 points or more, they have gone 97-12 SU but just 43-60-2 ATS (41.7%), but at any other line, including underdog, they are 35-6 SU and 27-14 ATS (65.9%) since 2017.
System Matches: PLAY ALL SMALLER FAVORITES/UNDERDOGS – COLORADO, KANSAS ST, BYU
FADE ALL BIG FAVORITES – SMU, NOTRE DAME, TEXAS A&M
CFB AP Poll Rankings System #4
In college football games featuring two ranked teams with the home team being a double-digit favorite, Under the total boasts an impressive 40-15 (72.7%) record since the beginning of the 2017 season. When adding a qualifier of totals higher than 56 to that system, the Under record jumps to 22-7 (75.9%).
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): Mizzou-South Carolina (o/u at 44.5), Tennessee-Georgia (o/u at 48.5)
College Football Conference Play Systems and Trends
These were from an article posted in September 2024 detailing top college football betting trends and systems for conference play.Road teams in conference games coming off very close losses of less than 3-points have struggled lately, 77-106 ATS (42.1%) since 2011.
System Matches (FADE ALL): EASTERN MICHIGAN (+10 at Ohio), HAWAII (-2.5 at Utah St), UTAH (+10.5 at Colorado)
Road favorites of 30 points or more in conference games have struggled recently, 8-22 ATS (26.7%) since 2015.
System Matches (FADE ALL): OHIO STATE and PENN STATE (*if they become 30-point favorites this week, both -28.5 currently)
Teams playing as conference road dogs of more than 7 points after not having played since 14 days ago are on a 138-106 ATS (56.6%) surge since 2010.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): FIU (+14 at Jacksonville State), TROY (+8 at GA Southern), NEBRASKA (+9 at USC)
Teams playing at home in conference games and coming off a blowout loss by more than 45 points are just 43-73 ATS (37.1%) since 2010.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TEMPLE (-2.5 vs. FAU), PURDUE (+28.5 vs. Penn State)
Top Team College Football Betting Trends in Conference Games
Negative fade trends:LOUISIANA TECH has lost its last nine games ATS against conference foes when coming off an outright home loss
System Match (FADE): LOUISIANA TECH (+14 at WKU)
USC has lost 10 of its last 12 games ATS as a favorite in conference play
System Match (FADE): USC (-9 vs. Nebraska)
ILLINOIS is on a 2-15 ATS skid as a conference home favorite
System Match (FADE): ILLINOIS (-2.5 vs. Michigan State)
HAWAII is just 3-17 ATS in its last 20 conference games when favored by single digits
System Match (FADE): HAWAII (-2.5 at Utah State)
STANFORD is 1-13 ATS in its last 14 conference games when coming off a road loss
System Match (FADE): STANFORD (+20 vs. Louisville)
TEMPLE is 3-15 ATS in its L18 conference games when coming off a road loss
System Match (FADE): TEMPLE (-2.5 vs. FAU)
MEMPHIS is on a 4-19 ATS skid in conference games when coming off an outright win
System Match (FADE): MEMPHIS (-14 vs. UAB)
Positive FOLLOW trends:
BOISE STATE is a perfect 9-0 ATS in MWC play when coming off a close win of 7 points or fewer
System Match (PLAY): BOISE STATE (-13.5 at SJSU)
UTAH boasts a perfect 8-0 ATS record in its last eight games as a double-digit conference underdog
System Match (PLAY): UTAH (+10.5 at Colorado)
TROY has won nine of its last 10 Sun Belt road games ATS
System Match (PLAY): TROY (+8 at GA Southern)
OLD DOMINION has won 10 of its last 11 games ATS as a conference underdog
System Match (PLAY): OLD DOMINION (+3 vs. JMU)
TROY is on a 14-3 ATS run in Sun Belt play when coming off a win
System Match (PLAY): TROY (+8 at GA Southern)
SAN JOSE STATE is on an 11-1 ATS surge as a double-digit conference underdog
System Match (PLAY): SAN JOSE STATE (+13.5 vs Boise State)
PURDUE has a respectable 12-3 ATS record in its last 15 games as Big Ten dog of 20+ points
System Match (PLAY): PURDUE (+28.5 vs Penn State)
PENN STATE has become a reliable Big Ten favorite, 19-7 ATS in its last 26
System Match (PLAY): PENN STATE (-28.5 at Purdue)
NORTHWESTERN is on an 11-2 ATS Big Ten run when coming off a close win of 7 points or less
System Match (PLAY): NORTHWESTERN (+28.5 vs Ohio State)
EASTERN MICHIGAN is an impressive MAC road underdog, 18-4 ATS in the last 22
System Match (PLAY): EASTERN MICHIGAN (+10.5 at Ohio)
Extreme Stat Next Game College Football Betting Trend Systems
Conference wins while struggling offensively are momentum builders
Over the last decade, college football teams that won a conference game despite gaining less than 250 yards of offense have used that victory to build momentum, going 78-49 ATS (61.4%) in the follow-up contest.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (+1.5 at Arizona)
