College Football Playoff First Round Best Bets from Will Hill:
Here are my College Football Playoff First Round best bets:Indiana at Notre Dame (-6.5, 52)
Questions about each team’s strength of schedule hang over this matchup, as both teams have gaudy win/loss records, as well as impressive point differentials. What I do feel is real is Indiana’s run defense. The counting stats are eye-popping, as they have stuffed the run all year, allowing less than 3 yards per carry and just yards per game on the ground. Even when they stepped up in competition and got blown out at Ohio State, they allowed a respectable 4 yards per carry. What hasn’t translated against better competition is Indiana’s offense. Their games late in the season vs. Michigan and Ohio State resulted in less than 400 yards of offense combined in the two games. An Indiana defense that is for real and an Indiana offense that may not be, I think Under 52 is the best way to attack this game.College Football Playoff First Round Best Bet: Under 52
SMU at Penn State (-8.5)
SMU has had a great season and nearly cashed as 20-1 long shots to win the ACC in their first season in their new conference. But questions about their level of competition are certainly fair here, as well. They haven’t faced a defense as good as Penn State. The only one somewhat comparable was BYU, who held SMU to 15 points and just 3.6 yards per play back in September. Penn State is coming off of a loss to Oregon, but a loss where they ran for nearly 300 yards and gained 7 yards per play. If they can run for 300 yards vs. Oregon on a neutral field, I’m optimistic they can have plenty of success running against SMU’s front seven at home. A team from Texas playing in cold temperatures, and taking a major step up in competition, I think the Cinderella story ends here for SMU.College Football Playoff First Round Best Bet: Penn State -8.5
