Here are my college football conference championship best bets:
Last year, upstart UNLV hosted Boise State in the Mountain West Championship Game and was not ready for that spotlight as the experienced Broncos won 44-20. The Rebels also hosted Boise State six weeks ago and once again fell to defeat 29-24. UNLV actually led the game in the fourth quarter but could not get the Broncos off the field as Boise State possessed the ball for the final 8:07 and converted 2/3 third downs and a fourth down to salt away the game.
Now the Rebels get another crack at Boise, but this time with a likely berth in the College Football Playoff on the line.
Ashton Jeanty ran for 2,287 rushing yards and 26 touchdowns and is likely to finish runner-up in this year’s Heisman Trophy voting. In the prior matchup with UNLV, Jeanty ran for 128 yards and a touchdown, but it took 33 hard carries to do it (3.9 ypc). The Rebels held him to his season low against FBS competition.
While Jeanty carries a heavy load, QB Maddux Madsen has thrown for over 2500 yards with a 21-3 TD-INT ratio. He could be relied on even more as Jeanty has carried the ball 312 times this season and has had various ailments throughout the season.
UNLV started 3-0 before its starting QB Matthew Sulka went into the transfer portal, claiming the program did not live up to NIL promises. Nevertheless, the team rallied around Campbell transfer Hajj-Malik Williams, who started the last nine games throwing for 1735 yards on a 17-4 TD-INT ratio while rushing for 768 yards and nine touchdowns.
The Rebels have to go to the ‘Smurf Turf’ in slightly below-freezing temperatures, but they did win in nasty weather conditions two weeks ago at San Jose State. The UNLV defense grades out a bit better than the Boise State stop unit.
Barry Odom is likely going to be part of the coaching carousel here shortly, so this is his last chance to win a championship with this group that has brought UNLV back from a 7-23 three-year record under previous coach Marcus Arroyo.
This team has been through a lot of adversity this year, and it pays off here with a conference championship.
College Football Conference Championship Best Bet: UNLV +5
First-year Big XII member Arizona State was picked to finish dead last in the preseason media poll and is now one win away from the College Football Playoff.
The Sun Devils went 6-1 in one-score games this season and took advantage of an imbalanced schedule, defeating teams in league play that made up six of the seven worst conference records.
Meanwhile, Iowa State had to take a more circuitous route to this game after a 7-0 start. The Cyclones lost back-to-back games to Texas Tech and at Kansas, but then had to win out vs. Cincinnati, at Utah, and vs. Kansas State.
While Arizona State wants to run first with RB Cam Skattebo (247 carries, 1398 yards, 17 TD) and QB Sam Leavitt (90-350-4), the Sun Devils could risk being one-dimensional here as leading receiver Jordyn Tyson (75 receptions, 1101 yards, 10 TD) is out with a broken collarbone and he is their bail-out guy on third downs.
Iowa State has faced zone read teams each of the last two weeks with Utah and Kansas State, so they should be prepared for what Arizona State will run here.
The Cyclones have more big-play capability in the passing game with QB Rocco Becht (3021 yards, 20-8 TD-INT ratio) throwing to a pair of 1000-yard receivers in Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel.
Matt Campbell is 29-12 ATS as an underdog in conference games. The three-time Big XII Coach of the Year has never been able to win a conference title in Ames, but he has always had Texas and Oklahoma in front of him. That is not a problem anymore, and this is his best chance to break through.
College Football Conference Championship Best Bet: Iowa State +2
Oregon sent its inflatable duck along the White River in Indianapolis for Big Ten Media Day to serve notice that they had arrived. They also served notice on the football field going undefeated (the lone FBS team still unbeaten).
The Ducks’ physical style of play has fit the Big Ten like a glove. Now, the first-time Big Ten Championship game participant gets another physical team in Penn State, who is making its first appearance in Indy since 2016.
While Oregon is still FBS’s lone unbeaten, they have had some close shaves this year with three victories by three points or less, including against Ohio State, which could have been a loss had Will Howard not mismanaged the clock at the end.
Penn State was not able to beat Ohio State due to some questionable play-calling in a goal-to-go situation where the Nittany Lions came away with zero points.
The Nittany Lions certainly are behind Oregon from a pure team speed standpoint, but they do run the ball better (5.1 to 5.0 yards/rush; 194.7 to 176.8 yards/game) and play better defense (14 points/game to 16.9; 266.9 to 290 yards/game; 4.3 yards/play to 4.5). Underdogs that run the ball better and play better defense than their opponents are live more often than not.
However, there is one thing that this potentially live underdog must overcome, and that is its head coach, James Franklin. Franklin has not exactly been “Big Game James” because he has come up small in many big games. In fact, Franklin is 0-11 in his last 11 games vs. Top 5 opponents.
Ohio State and Michigan have seemingly always stood in Penn State’s way, but not this time around. Franklin has not won many big ones of late, but he gets off the schneid here.
College Football Conference Championship Best Bet: Penn State +3.5
BEST OF THE REST
Western Kentucky/Jacksonville State OVER 57.5 (C-USA Championship)
Texas -140 ML vs. Georgia (SEC Championship)
UNLV (+5; 57.5) at Boise State
Mountain West ChampionshipLast year, upstart UNLV hosted Boise State in the Mountain West Championship Game and was not ready for that spotlight as the experienced Broncos won 44-20. The Rebels also hosted Boise State six weeks ago and once again fell to defeat 29-24. UNLV actually led the game in the fourth quarter but could not get the Broncos off the field as Boise State possessed the ball for the final 8:07 and converted 2/3 third downs and a fourth down to salt away the game.
Now the Rebels get another crack at Boise, but this time with a likely berth in the College Football Playoff on the line.
Ashton Jeanty ran for 2,287 rushing yards and 26 touchdowns and is likely to finish runner-up in this year’s Heisman Trophy voting. In the prior matchup with UNLV, Jeanty ran for 128 yards and a touchdown, but it took 33 hard carries to do it (3.9 ypc). The Rebels held him to his season low against FBS competition.
While Jeanty carries a heavy load, QB Maddux Madsen has thrown for over 2500 yards with a 21-3 TD-INT ratio. He could be relied on even more as Jeanty has carried the ball 312 times this season and has had various ailments throughout the season.
UNLV started 3-0 before its starting QB Matthew Sulka went into the transfer portal, claiming the program did not live up to NIL promises. Nevertheless, the team rallied around Campbell transfer Hajj-Malik Williams, who started the last nine games throwing for 1735 yards on a 17-4 TD-INT ratio while rushing for 768 yards and nine touchdowns.
The Rebels have to go to the ‘Smurf Turf’ in slightly below-freezing temperatures, but they did win in nasty weather conditions two weeks ago at San Jose State. The UNLV defense grades out a bit better than the Boise State stop unit.
Barry Odom is likely going to be part of the coaching carousel here shortly, so this is his last chance to win a championship with this group that has brought UNLV back from a 7-23 three-year record under previous coach Marcus Arroyo.
This team has been through a lot of adversity this year, and it pays off here with a conference championship.
College Football Conference Championship Best Bet: UNLV +5
Iowa State (+2; 49.5) vs. Arizona State
Big XII ChampionshipFirst-year Big XII member Arizona State was picked to finish dead last in the preseason media poll and is now one win away from the College Football Playoff.
The Sun Devils went 6-1 in one-score games this season and took advantage of an imbalanced schedule, defeating teams in league play that made up six of the seven worst conference records.
Meanwhile, Iowa State had to take a more circuitous route to this game after a 7-0 start. The Cyclones lost back-to-back games to Texas Tech and at Kansas, but then had to win out vs. Cincinnati, at Utah, and vs. Kansas State.
While Arizona State wants to run first with RB Cam Skattebo (247 carries, 1398 yards, 17 TD) and QB Sam Leavitt (90-350-4), the Sun Devils could risk being one-dimensional here as leading receiver Jordyn Tyson (75 receptions, 1101 yards, 10 TD) is out with a broken collarbone and he is their bail-out guy on third downs.
Iowa State has faced zone read teams each of the last two weeks with Utah and Kansas State, so they should be prepared for what Arizona State will run here.
The Cyclones have more big-play capability in the passing game with QB Rocco Becht (3021 yards, 20-8 TD-INT ratio) throwing to a pair of 1000-yard receivers in Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel.
Matt Campbell is 29-12 ATS as an underdog in conference games. The three-time Big XII Coach of the Year has never been able to win a conference title in Ames, but he has always had Texas and Oklahoma in front of him. That is not a problem anymore, and this is his best chance to break through.
College Football Conference Championship Best Bet: Iowa State +2
Penn State (+3.5; 50.5) vs. Oregon
Big Ten ChampionshipOregon sent its inflatable duck along the White River in Indianapolis for Big Ten Media Day to serve notice that they had arrived. They also served notice on the football field going undefeated (the lone FBS team still unbeaten).
The Ducks’ physical style of play has fit the Big Ten like a glove. Now, the first-time Big Ten Championship game participant gets another physical team in Penn State, who is making its first appearance in Indy since 2016.
While Oregon is still FBS’s lone unbeaten, they have had some close shaves this year with three victories by three points or less, including against Ohio State, which could have been a loss had Will Howard not mismanaged the clock at the end.
Penn State was not able to beat Ohio State due to some questionable play-calling in a goal-to-go situation where the Nittany Lions came away with zero points.
The Nittany Lions certainly are behind Oregon from a pure team speed standpoint, but they do run the ball better (5.1 to 5.0 yards/rush; 194.7 to 176.8 yards/game) and play better defense (14 points/game to 16.9; 266.9 to 290 yards/game; 4.3 yards/play to 4.5). Underdogs that run the ball better and play better defense than their opponents are live more often than not.
However, there is one thing that this potentially live underdog must overcome, and that is its head coach, James Franklin. Franklin has not exactly been “Big Game James” because he has come up small in many big games. In fact, Franklin is 0-11 in his last 11 games vs. Top 5 opponents.
Ohio State and Michigan have seemingly always stood in Penn State’s way, but not this time around. Franklin has not won many big ones of late, but he gets off the schneid here.
College Football Conference Championship Best Bet: Penn State +3.5
BEST OF THE REST
Western Kentucky/Jacksonville State OVER 57.5 (C-USA Championship)
Texas -140 ML vs. Georgia (SEC Championship)
