Got a plus-.500 week in the regular season finales, although in terms of profit, it was dead even at 11-10 ATS. Fortunately, it ended what was a miserable month for my best bets overall. With that said, we push on to the conference championships this week with a 122-112-5 ATS (52.1%) record for the season. Because I’ve taken the time to study each of the nine games this weekend in depth, I will be offering opinions on all of them. For this week, on VSiN.com, you will notice I’ve put out two key pieces for the conference championship action, one on the recent history of the games, and the other, our usual in-depth College Football Analytics Report. Enjoy the games this weekend, and remember, the bowl and playoff games are right around the corner!
Friday, 8:00 p.m.
As I studied this Tulane-Army for a significant time on Wednesday morning, I felt like I was trying to find reasons why not to bet Tulane as the road favorite at Army on Friday night. I know the Green Wave has been one of the most reliable teams as favorites in recent years, going 48-23 ATS in that role since 2014. However, I don’t love that 77% of the handle at DraftKings is backing them in the road chalk role, and I especially don’t like that they blew the chance to host this game by losing to Memphis last week.
Quite honestly, I don’t like the Army side much either, as I feel they played their best football earlier in the season and are now just 1-4 ATS in their last five. That said, I do like the Over side on the total. After being dominant in the first six games, the Army defense has been hit for 24 points in three of the last five outings. Against the four most competent offenses the Knights have faced, they have allowed 26 PPG this year, and that included a 3-point performance by North Texas that could have been 24 if not for horribly missed opportunities inside the opponent’s 5-yard line.
Meanwhile, Tulane has allowed 34 points or more five times this year while putting up 39.1 PPG offensively. They are going to want this game to get up into a shootout. This title game series has a history of going Over, with five of the last six going that way. Plus, we learned this week in my conference championship game piece that conference title game totals of less than 50 have gone Over at a 23-12 (65.7%) rate since 2003.
Conference Championship Best Bet: Let’s go OVER 44.5 in Tulane-Army Friday night
Friday, 7:00 p.m. ET
It is quite inspiring to see what Jacksonville State has accomplished at the top level of college football in just two seasons. In 2022, JSU was competing at the FCS level. After going 9-4 in 2023, including a New Orleans Bowl win, the Gamecocks now seek their first-ever Conference USA crown. Talk about a whirlwind two years for head coach Rich Rodriguez’s program.
It won’t be an easy task, however, as Western Kentucky has been in the C-USA title game three times since 2015 and has won twice. The Hilltoppers also won at home against this same JSU squad this past weekend, 19-17, to clinch a spot in this contest. Both teams sport 8-4 marks overall, with JSU having won the regular season CUSA crown with a 7-1 mark. That earned them the right to host this game, key since they will be looking to extend a 3-game SU and ATS winning streak for hosts in this conference title series.
Looking back even further, home teams are 14-4 SU and 13-5 ATS in the game, dating back to 2006. My question is this…why would a team on such a meteoric rise up the CFB totem pole lose back-to-back weeks to a team it is by all rights better than? I don’t see it happening. Rodriguez’s team was just 2/13 on third down tries, was outgained by 98 yards, and held the ball for nearly 13 minutes fewer than WKY last week and still almost won. I don’t think the Gamecocks can play nearly as poorly as they did in that game, especially in front of the home folks with a conference title on the line. Plus, I don’t like the way the Hilltoppers’ offense seems to have hit a wall lately, scoring just 16.3 PPG in the last three outings after averaging 34.1 PPG in the eight games prior.
Conference Championship Best Bet: Let’s lay the 3.5 points with Jacksonville State here
Friday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Boise State is no stranger to the Mountain West Conference Championship game, as this will be their eighth one and perhaps the biggest, with a likely trip to the CFP on the line with a victory. The Broncos will play as a 4-point home favorite in a rematch of the title game of 2023 against UNLV. This upcoming Friday night matchup is not only a rematch of last year’s MWC title game, but also one of an earlier season matchup in Las Vegas, a thrilling game that came down to the final possession and won by the Broncos, 29-24. It was the seventh straight win for Boise State in the head-to-head series.
To me, this is a relatively tight point spread, considering the stakes and game locale, and that doesn’t even touch the Ashton Jeanty for Heisman discussion. You might be somewhat surprised to know that as of Monday afternoon, 65% of the handle at DraftKings had come in on the underdog UNLV team. However, it has dropped to 55%, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see it even up or sway back to BSU by kickoff.
There is also the fact that this is the only ranked vs. ranked matchup on a home field this week, meaning it’s our last chance to play the trio of systems I’ve touted all season long: 1) In games featuring two ranked teams since 2017, home teams are now 191-94 SU and 164-113-8 ATS (59.2%). 2) Digging deeper into that data, you will find that when the home team has been ranked better, those teams have gone 110-22 SU and 80-48-4 ATS (62.5%). And 3) Adding another point spread wrinkle to the last angle when better-ranked home teams have been single-digit favorites or underdogs, they have gone 55-19 SU and 48-23-3 ATS (67.6%) since 2017. The line is where it should be based on my power ratings. I think the situation will motivate Boise to get it done.
Conference Championship Best Bet: I’ll lay the 4 points with Boise State
Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET
Recent conference championship history shows that Power 4 conference title game neutral field favorites are on a 27-6 SU and 22-11 ATS (66.7%) run. Therefore, it behooves bettors this weekend to find definitive reasons why an underdog can break that spell. You will see that I actually prefer two of the dogs for Saturday in these games, mostly because all the lines are tighter than usual, and the public is still all over the favorites. In fact, because all of the lines are shown as -3.5 points or fewer, I think oddsmakers are telling us these teams are much closer than we think.
That said, I think the underdogs in these games have to be thoroughly motivated to pull the upsets. I think Iowa State is going to be. I typically love ISU in the underdog role, as the Cyclones are 16-7 ATS as such since 2021. I also love the fact that they have been a Big 12 participant since inception and have never won a title in the league. In fact, it’s been over 110 years since the Cyclones won a conference championship of any sort. They have played in this game once before, in 2020, coming up short of Oklahoma, 27-21 as 5-point underdogs.
Meanwhile, ASU has won five straight outright and ATS, but the only one of those games that was against a team not totally underachieving this year was BYU. I also think this line is an overreaction to the recent surge by ASU. In fact, if you look at these teams’ Big 12 slates, the Sun Devils were dogs four times in Big 12 play and five overall. ISU was an underdog just once all season, in a Week 2 win at Iowa. Could the wrong team be favored here just cause of recent noise?
Conference Championship Best Bet: I’ll take Iowa State as the 2-point underdog in the Big 12 title game
Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET
The MAC title game is the second-longest series of any of the leagues, dating back to 1997, and Miami (OH), the defending MAC champ, is looking to become the first team since Northern Illinois in 2011-12 to repeat. Furthermore, no team has covered back-to-back MAC title contests since 2007-08. The Redhawks beat Toledo last year 23-14 as 7-point underdogs. This year, they are favored, despite a lesser won-lost record, but by just 1.5 points. This will be a rematch contest from the regular season, with head coach Chuck Martin’s team looking to follow up a 30-20 win in Oxford in October.
Interestingly, it sets Ohio U up for two nice revenge angles: 1) Since the start of the 2016 season, neutral field underdogs playing in revenge mode have gone 48-30 ATS (61.5%). 2) Better defensive teams are more successful in exacting revenge than prolific offense. Since the start of the 2016 season, teams allowing 24 PPG or less have gone 691-603 ATS (53.4%). This title game series has become a heavy underdog trending title contest, as dogs have won ATS at an 11-3-1 clip since 2008, including 7-1 ATS in the L8. I also revealed this week that Group of 5 conference title game neutral field dogs are 12-14 SU but 18-7-1 ATS (72%) in their last 26 tries. Backers of Miami (OH) need all be concerned that 84% of the handle as of Wednesday at DraftKings was on that side of the ledger, and going back to the start of the 2022 season, when 80% or more of the handle was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group has gone just 116-133 ATS (46.6%).
Conference Championship Best Bet: I’ll take Ohio U +1.5 as another MAC title game live dog
Saturday, 4:00 p.m. ET
In October, Georgia manhandled Texas in Austin in a 30-15 decision, so why are the Longhorns favored again in the rematch in Georgia’s backyard with the SEC title on the line? Well, how about because it would see that the Bulldogs are literally going through the motions lately. In fact, defensively, with the way head coach Kirby Smart’s team has been playing lately, this game sets up as the biggest “defensive mismatch of the week” in terms of my effective stats, where Texas allows 3.1 effective PPG and Georgia allows 10.2. This comes after the Bulldogs have allowed over 25 PPG since that key October victory.
Of course, Georgia is no stranger to this stage, and playing in Atlanta certainly helps, but might they take it for granted with the way they are playing? They are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games. Plus, the line setup is very unusual for this game, as only one of the last 11 SEC title games has seen a point spread of less than 6 points and favorites have typically gotten the job done here, winning 17 of the last 22 SEC title games while going 11-10-1 ATS. Overall, Power 4 conference title game neutral field favorites are on a 27-6 SU and 22-11 ATS (66.7%) run.
Finally, one of the more hidden gems from my DK Betting Splits Systems finds that since the start of the 2024 season, on games in which there has been a slight majority number of money line bets on a team (51-60%), bettors boast a respectable 26-19 SU (57.7%) record for +5.37 units of profit and a ROI of 11.9%. Only 55% were on Texas as of this writing. This happens in only about one of every ten games on average. It is rare.
Conference Championship Best Bet: I see enough reasons to think Texas -2.5 is the play here
Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET
If you ask most experts, they would have expected Louisiana to be here, while I don’t think Marshall would have been one of their picks. That’s because Marshall has generally overachieved all season long, going 9-3 SU and 10-1-1 ATS in 2024, that latter mark being the best in the country. Still, the Herd finds themselves as a 5.5-point underdog to a team down its starting quarterback. Of course, the backup isn’t just some random guy off the bench, as Chandler Fields is in his sixth season for Louisiana and has attempted 426 passes in his career while throwing 24 TDs.
That said, to me, it doesn’t seem like oddsmakers adjusted the line even a single point for Fields replacing 10-game starter Ben Woolridge. How can that be? These teams are much closer than this line indicates. In fact, my effective strength numbers show ULL at +15.0, and Marshall at +14.2. I can see adding around 3 points for the home field, but then something has to be subtracted for the QB injury, doesn’t it?
Looking at the betting splits, 87% of the handle as of Wednesday afternoon was on the host Ragin’ Cajuns, and going back to the start of the 2022 season, when 80% or more of the handle was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group has gone just 116-133 ATS (46.6%). To me, the public just isn’t giving enough respect to a team that has continued to fight tooth and nail this year (4-0-1 ATS dog record) and is being somewhat disrespected once again by this line.
Conference Championship Best Bet: I’ll take Marshall +5.5 to make the Sun Belt title game interesting
Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Speaking of teams getting a bit disrespected this week, let’s focus on SMU for a second. Why are the 11-1 Mustangs being threatened with being overtaken by three-loss Alabama should they lose to Clemson this week for the ACC crown? To me, this team has done enough to claim that spot already. That said, I expect them to be playing with a big chip on their shoulder in Charlotte on Saturday as they get a chance to officially stake their claim to ACC legitimacy by taking down the league’s perennial power.
My recent ratings would suggest that this game could actually be more decisive than the oddsmakers are hinting at, as SMU has a Recent Rating of +38.9, good for fourth in the country. Clemson is at just +21.3 in that same metric. In other words, in recent weeks, SMU has been a FAR better team. I think this line is being influenced too heavily by brand names. Plus, if you look at the recent history of this title game series, you will see that favorites have won 12 straight times outright and the last seven ATS. Not to mention that overall, Power 4 conference title game neutral field favorites are on a 27-6 SU and 22-11 ATS (66.7%) run. Don’t discount SMU’s motivation here.
Conference Championship Best Bet: I got SMU -2.5 over Clemson
Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ET
There is a very interesting line scenario for the Big Ten title game, as we have been witnessing massive mismatches for nearly a decade in this conference title series. Oregon is a 3.5-point favorite, which is noteworthy since favorites are on winning streaks of seven games outright and three games ATS in this contest. However, this is the first time since 2017 that there won’t be a double-digit point spread associated with the matchup. It has to be noted that the first seven Big Ten title games were played with single-digit lines, and underdogs were 4-3 SU and 6-1 ATS in those games.
If you’re starting to get the feeling that I am leaning toward Penn State in this one, you are correct. I don’t like Oregon’s travel scenario at all, as there is no other team this weekend that has to make such a long trek to play in their title contest. As the lone remaining unbeaten team in the country, I would say the Ducks are immune from potentially looking past this game toward the CFP and an almost certain #1 seed. Of my four strength indicators, none show Oregon to win and cover this game. That means the Ducks have been overpriced slightly, and even still, it is the heaviest public game of all at DraftKings for the week, with 88% of the handle, and 86% of the bets on their side of the ledger.
My Power Ratings show Oregon -2.5, my Effective Strength indicators show Oregon -1.1, my Bettors’ Ratings show Penn State -1.5, and my Recent Ratings show Penn State -5.3. On top of all that, my recent road field study showed the Nittany Lions as being one of the better road-performing teams in the country lately. I like their chances for not only a cover but a potential upset as well, as I don’t think Oregon is going to be able to produce as usual versus a very tough PSU defense.
Conference Championship Best Bet: I’ll go Penn State +3.5 versus Oregon
Tulane (-5.5; 46.5) at Army
American Athletic ChampionshipFriday, 8:00 p.m.
As I studied this Tulane-Army for a significant time on Wednesday morning, I felt like I was trying to find reasons why not to bet Tulane as the road favorite at Army on Friday night. I know the Green Wave has been one of the most reliable teams as favorites in recent years, going 48-23 ATS in that role since 2014. However, I don’t love that 77% of the handle at DraftKings is backing them in the road chalk role, and I especially don’t like that they blew the chance to host this game by losing to Memphis last week.
Quite honestly, I don’t like the Army side much either, as I feel they played their best football earlier in the season and are now just 1-4 ATS in their last five. That said, I do like the Over side on the total. After being dominant in the first six games, the Army defense has been hit for 24 points in three of the last five outings. Against the four most competent offenses the Knights have faced, they have allowed 26 PPG this year, and that included a 3-point performance by North Texas that could have been 24 if not for horribly missed opportunities inside the opponent’s 5-yard line.
Meanwhile, Tulane has allowed 34 points or more five times this year while putting up 39.1 PPG offensively. They are going to want this game to get up into a shootout. This title game series has a history of going Over, with five of the last six going that way. Plus, we learned this week in my conference championship game piece that conference title game totals of less than 50 have gone Over at a 23-12 (65.7%) rate since 2003.
Conference Championship Best Bet: Let’s go OVER 44.5 in Tulane-Army Friday night
Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State (-4; 58)
Conference USA ChampionshipFriday, 7:00 p.m. ET
It is quite inspiring to see what Jacksonville State has accomplished at the top level of college football in just two seasons. In 2022, JSU was competing at the FCS level. After going 9-4 in 2023, including a New Orleans Bowl win, the Gamecocks now seek their first-ever Conference USA crown. Talk about a whirlwind two years for head coach Rich Rodriguez’s program.
It won’t be an easy task, however, as Western Kentucky has been in the C-USA title game three times since 2015 and has won twice. The Hilltoppers also won at home against this same JSU squad this past weekend, 19-17, to clinch a spot in this contest. Both teams sport 8-4 marks overall, with JSU having won the regular season CUSA crown with a 7-1 mark. That earned them the right to host this game, key since they will be looking to extend a 3-game SU and ATS winning streak for hosts in this conference title series.
Looking back even further, home teams are 14-4 SU and 13-5 ATS in the game, dating back to 2006. My question is this…why would a team on such a meteoric rise up the CFB totem pole lose back-to-back weeks to a team it is by all rights better than? I don’t see it happening. Rodriguez’s team was just 2/13 on third down tries, was outgained by 98 yards, and held the ball for nearly 13 minutes fewer than WKY last week and still almost won. I don’t think the Gamecocks can play nearly as poorly as they did in that game, especially in front of the home folks with a conference title on the line. Plus, I don’t like the way the Hilltoppers’ offense seems to have hit a wall lately, scoring just 16.3 PPG in the last three outings after averaging 34.1 PPG in the eight games prior.
Conference Championship Best Bet: Let’s lay the 3.5 points with Jacksonville State here
UNLV at Boise State (-4; 58.5)
Mountain West ChampionshipFriday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Boise State is no stranger to the Mountain West Conference Championship game, as this will be their eighth one and perhaps the biggest, with a likely trip to the CFP on the line with a victory. The Broncos will play as a 4-point home favorite in a rematch of the title game of 2023 against UNLV. This upcoming Friday night matchup is not only a rematch of last year’s MWC title game, but also one of an earlier season matchup in Las Vegas, a thrilling game that came down to the final possession and won by the Broncos, 29-24. It was the seventh straight win for Boise State in the head-to-head series.
To me, this is a relatively tight point spread, considering the stakes and game locale, and that doesn’t even touch the Ashton Jeanty for Heisman discussion. You might be somewhat surprised to know that as of Monday afternoon, 65% of the handle at DraftKings had come in on the underdog UNLV team. However, it has dropped to 55%, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see it even up or sway back to BSU by kickoff.
There is also the fact that this is the only ranked vs. ranked matchup on a home field this week, meaning it’s our last chance to play the trio of systems I’ve touted all season long: 1) In games featuring two ranked teams since 2017, home teams are now 191-94 SU and 164-113-8 ATS (59.2%). 2) Digging deeper into that data, you will find that when the home team has been ranked better, those teams have gone 110-22 SU and 80-48-4 ATS (62.5%). And 3) Adding another point spread wrinkle to the last angle when better-ranked home teams have been single-digit favorites or underdogs, they have gone 55-19 SU and 48-23-3 ATS (67.6%) since 2017. The line is where it should be based on my power ratings. I think the situation will motivate Boise to get it done.
Conference Championship Best Bet: I’ll lay the 4 points with Boise State
Iowa State vs. Arizona State (-2; 51)
Big 12 ChampionshipSaturday, 12:00 p.m. ET
Recent conference championship history shows that Power 4 conference title game neutral field favorites are on a 27-6 SU and 22-11 ATS (66.7%) run. Therefore, it behooves bettors this weekend to find definitive reasons why an underdog can break that spell. You will see that I actually prefer two of the dogs for Saturday in these games, mostly because all the lines are tighter than usual, and the public is still all over the favorites. In fact, because all of the lines are shown as -3.5 points or fewer, I think oddsmakers are telling us these teams are much closer than we think.
That said, I think the underdogs in these games have to be thoroughly motivated to pull the upsets. I think Iowa State is going to be. I typically love ISU in the underdog role, as the Cyclones are 16-7 ATS as such since 2021. I also love the fact that they have been a Big 12 participant since inception and have never won a title in the league. In fact, it’s been over 110 years since the Cyclones won a conference championship of any sort. They have played in this game once before, in 2020, coming up short of Oklahoma, 27-21 as 5-point underdogs.
Meanwhile, ASU has won five straight outright and ATS, but the only one of those games that was against a team not totally underachieving this year was BYU. I also think this line is an overreaction to the recent surge by ASU. In fact, if you look at these teams’ Big 12 slates, the Sun Devils were dogs four times in Big 12 play and five overall. ISU was an underdog just once all season, in a Week 2 win at Iowa. Could the wrong team be favored here just cause of recent noise?
Conference Championship Best Bet: I’ll take Iowa State as the 2-point underdog in the Big 12 title game
Ohio vs. (112) Miami (OH) (-2.5; 44.5)
MAC ChampionshipSaturday, 12:00 p.m. ET
The MAC title game is the second-longest series of any of the leagues, dating back to 1997, and Miami (OH), the defending MAC champ, is looking to become the first team since Northern Illinois in 2011-12 to repeat. Furthermore, no team has covered back-to-back MAC title contests since 2007-08. The Redhawks beat Toledo last year 23-14 as 7-point underdogs. This year, they are favored, despite a lesser won-lost record, but by just 1.5 points. This will be a rematch contest from the regular season, with head coach Chuck Martin’s team looking to follow up a 30-20 win in Oxford in October.
Interestingly, it sets Ohio U up for two nice revenge angles: 1) Since the start of the 2016 season, neutral field underdogs playing in revenge mode have gone 48-30 ATS (61.5%). 2) Better defensive teams are more successful in exacting revenge than prolific offense. Since the start of the 2016 season, teams allowing 24 PPG or less have gone 691-603 ATS (53.4%). This title game series has become a heavy underdog trending title contest, as dogs have won ATS at an 11-3-1 clip since 2008, including 7-1 ATS in the L8. I also revealed this week that Group of 5 conference title game neutral field dogs are 12-14 SU but 18-7-1 ATS (72%) in their last 26 tries. Backers of Miami (OH) need all be concerned that 84% of the handle as of Wednesday at DraftKings was on that side of the ledger, and going back to the start of the 2022 season, when 80% or more of the handle was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group has gone just 116-133 ATS (46.6%).
Conference Championship Best Bet: I’ll take Ohio U +1.5 as another MAC title game live dog
Georgia vs. Texas (-2.5; 49)
SEC ChampionshipSaturday, 4:00 p.m. ET
In October, Georgia manhandled Texas in Austin in a 30-15 decision, so why are the Longhorns favored again in the rematch in Georgia’s backyard with the SEC title on the line? Well, how about because it would see that the Bulldogs are literally going through the motions lately. In fact, defensively, with the way head coach Kirby Smart’s team has been playing lately, this game sets up as the biggest “defensive mismatch of the week” in terms of my effective stats, where Texas allows 3.1 effective PPG and Georgia allows 10.2. This comes after the Bulldogs have allowed over 25 PPG since that key October victory.
Of course, Georgia is no stranger to this stage, and playing in Atlanta certainly helps, but might they take it for granted with the way they are playing? They are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games. Plus, the line setup is very unusual for this game, as only one of the last 11 SEC title games has seen a point spread of less than 6 points and favorites have typically gotten the job done here, winning 17 of the last 22 SEC title games while going 11-10-1 ATS. Overall, Power 4 conference title game neutral field favorites are on a 27-6 SU and 22-11 ATS (66.7%) run.
Finally, one of the more hidden gems from my DK Betting Splits Systems finds that since the start of the 2024 season, on games in which there has been a slight majority number of money line bets on a team (51-60%), bettors boast a respectable 26-19 SU (57.7%) record for +5.37 units of profit and a ROI of 11.9%. Only 55% were on Texas as of this writing. This happens in only about one of every ten games on average. It is rare.
Conference Championship Best Bet: I see enough reasons to think Texas -2.5 is the play here
Marshall at Louisiana-Lafayette (-5.5; 56.5)
Sun Belt ChampionshipSaturday, 7:30 p.m. ET
If you ask most experts, they would have expected Louisiana to be here, while I don’t think Marshall would have been one of their picks. That’s because Marshall has generally overachieved all season long, going 9-3 SU and 10-1-1 ATS in 2024, that latter mark being the best in the country. Still, the Herd finds themselves as a 5.5-point underdog to a team down its starting quarterback. Of course, the backup isn’t just some random guy off the bench, as Chandler Fields is in his sixth season for Louisiana and has attempted 426 passes in his career while throwing 24 TDs.
That said, to me, it doesn’t seem like oddsmakers adjusted the line even a single point for Fields replacing 10-game starter Ben Woolridge. How can that be? These teams are much closer than this line indicates. In fact, my effective strength numbers show ULL at +15.0, and Marshall at +14.2. I can see adding around 3 points for the home field, but then something has to be subtracted for the QB injury, doesn’t it?
Looking at the betting splits, 87% of the handle as of Wednesday afternoon was on the host Ragin’ Cajuns, and going back to the start of the 2022 season, when 80% or more of the handle was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group has gone just 116-133 ATS (46.6%). To me, the public just isn’t giving enough respect to a team that has continued to fight tooth and nail this year (4-0-1 ATS dog record) and is being somewhat disrespected once again by this line.
Conference Championship Best Bet: I’ll take Marshall +5.5 to make the Sun Belt title game interesting
Clemson vs. SMU (-2.5; 56)
ACC ChampionshipSaturday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Speaking of teams getting a bit disrespected this week, let’s focus on SMU for a second. Why are the 11-1 Mustangs being threatened with being overtaken by three-loss Alabama should they lose to Clemson this week for the ACC crown? To me, this team has done enough to claim that spot already. That said, I expect them to be playing with a big chip on their shoulder in Charlotte on Saturday as they get a chance to officially stake their claim to ACC legitimacy by taking down the league’s perennial power.
My recent ratings would suggest that this game could actually be more decisive than the oddsmakers are hinting at, as SMU has a Recent Rating of +38.9, good for fourth in the country. Clemson is at just +21.3 in that same metric. In other words, in recent weeks, SMU has been a FAR better team. I think this line is being influenced too heavily by brand names. Plus, if you look at the recent history of this title game series, you will see that favorites have won 12 straight times outright and the last seven ATS. Not to mention that overall, Power 4 conference title game neutral field favorites are on a 27-6 SU and 22-11 ATS (66.7%) run. Don’t discount SMU’s motivation here.
Conference Championship Best Bet: I got SMU -2.5 over Clemson
Penn State vs. Oregon (-3.5; 49.5)
Big Ten ChampionshipSaturday, 8:00 p.m. ET
There is a very interesting line scenario for the Big Ten title game, as we have been witnessing massive mismatches for nearly a decade in this conference title series. Oregon is a 3.5-point favorite, which is noteworthy since favorites are on winning streaks of seven games outright and three games ATS in this contest. However, this is the first time since 2017 that there won’t be a double-digit point spread associated with the matchup. It has to be noted that the first seven Big Ten title games were played with single-digit lines, and underdogs were 4-3 SU and 6-1 ATS in those games.
If you’re starting to get the feeling that I am leaning toward Penn State in this one, you are correct. I don’t like Oregon’s travel scenario at all, as there is no other team this weekend that has to make such a long trek to play in their title contest. As the lone remaining unbeaten team in the country, I would say the Ducks are immune from potentially looking past this game toward the CFP and an almost certain #1 seed. Of my four strength indicators, none show Oregon to win and cover this game. That means the Ducks have been overpriced slightly, and even still, it is the heaviest public game of all at DraftKings for the week, with 88% of the handle, and 86% of the bets on their side of the ledger.
My Power Ratings show Oregon -2.5, my Effective Strength indicators show Oregon -1.1, my Bettors’ Ratings show Penn State -1.5, and my Recent Ratings show Penn State -5.3. On top of all that, my recent road field study showed the Nittany Lions as being one of the better road-performing teams in the country lately. I like their chances for not only a cover but a potential upset as well, as I don’t think Oregon is going to be able to produce as usual versus a very tough PSU defense.
Conference Championship Best Bet: I’ll go Penn State +3.5 versus Oregon
