College Football Conference Championship Best Bets, Picks and Predictions from Matt Youmans:
Here are my college football conference championship best bets:UNLV at Boise State (-4.5)
Mountain West ChampionshipFriday, 8:00 p.m. ET
A spot in the 12-team College Football Playoff bracket is up for grabs, and UNLV has a legitimate shot to claim it, believe it or not. The Rebels are 10-2 with both losses suffered on their home field in October — 44-41 to Syracuse in overtime and 29-24 to Boise State. This rematch will be played on the blue turf in Boise, where the forecast calls for cold temperatures but not much wind and no snow, and the Rebels roll in with an eight-game road winning streak. The Broncos (11-1) are 6-0 at home with five wins by double figures.
The battle will be waged mostly on the ground, and Boise’s Ashton Jeanty is far and away the nation’s leading rusher with 2,288 yards, an average of 190.7 per game. In the teams’ first meeting, UNLV’s defense contained Jeanty, who was limited to 128 yards on 33 carries. The Broncos can throw it when needed, and Maddux Madsen has 21 touchdown passes with only three interceptions. Dual-threat quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams triggers a Rebels offense with just as much firepower. Williams passed for 179 yards and ran for 105 against Boise.
The underdog is live and not outclassed in this matchup. In each of the Rebels’ losses, they made critical mistakes late in the game. Expect this conference title matchup to follow a similar script, with UNLV in position to win in the fourth quarter. It’s also reasonable to expect the Rebels, who have not defeated Boise State since 1976, to come up a little short. Instead of laying the points, I bet the Broncos on the moneyline.
College Football Conference Championship Best Bet: Boise State -190
Iowa State vs. Arizona State (-1.5)
Big 12 ChampionshipSaturday, 12:00 p.m. ET – AT&T Stadium
Senior running back Cam Skattebo does almost everything for the Arizona State offense as the team’s leading rusher and second-leading pass catcher. Skattebo totaled 324 rushing yards in the past two games against BYU and Arizona. He needs to do even more in this game because freshman quarterback Sam Leavitt will miss injured No. 1 receiver Jordyn Tyson, who has 75 receptions. To put Tyson’s loss in perspective, he has 40 more receptions than Skattebo and 58 more than the Sun Devils’ second-most productive wide receiver. It’s no secret where Arizona State wants to go with the ball, so the Iowa State defense will zero in on Skattebo on almost every snap. Cyclones quarterback Rocco Becht has more options, including two 1,000-yard receivers, Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel.
Arizona State’s turnaround from 3-9 in coach Kenny Dillingham’s first season to 10-2 this season is an amazing story. Still, Dillingham is a young coach with a freshman quarterback on a big stage. Iowa State coach Matt Campbell has more experience in big games and Becht is a fearless quarterback who should help give the Cyclones the edge.
College Football Conference Championship Best Bet: Iowa State +1.5
Georgia vs. Texas (-3)
SEC ChampionshipSaturday, 4:00 p.m. ET – Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Despite a poor performance by quarterback Carson Beck, the Bulldogs won the teams’ first meeting 30-15 on Oct. 19 in Austin, Texas. Beck threw three interceptions and did not pass for a touchdown. Georgia controlled the game from the start, taking a 23-0 halftime lead, due to a dominant defense that forced four turnovers, totaled seven sacks and held the Longhorns to 29 yards on the ground. Bulldogs coach Kirby Smart won the chess match.
Texas coach Steve Sarkisian will learn from what went wrong and adjust his play calling by going to more quick throws to neutralize the pass rush, but Sarkisian must make another adjustment that could give his team a better shot to win. Sarkisian needs to play two quarterbacks, Arch Manning and Quinn Ewers, who does not handle pressure well in the pocket. Manning is more athletic and has the escapability and speed to make plays against Georgia’s aggressive defense. Manning would give the defense a different look. The Bulldogs hope to get a boost by the anticipated return of running back Trevor Etienne, who missed the past three games with a rib injury after rushing for 87 yards and three touchdowns in the victory over Texas.
It’s often tempting to play the revenge angle, but there have been seven rematches in SEC title games, and the team that won the first meeting is 5-2 in the title games. It’s tough to trust Beck against a strong Longhorns defense, yet Smart has earned the benefit of the doubt, and the Bulldogs get a slight edge by playing close to home.
College Football Conference Championship Best Bet: Georgia +3
