Finished on the + side of things last night, as for today I made way too many plays for my comfort zone but I liked them all to a point where I didn't feel comfortable throwing any of them out.
Match-ups
4.00 units Martin Truex Jr(+135@sportsbook.com)over Kevin Harvick
Truex has done very well on the 1.5 mile tracks like Lowes, Atlanta etc. Has two Top 10's this year(7th-Texas, 8th-Atlanta). Does not have a good starting spot for tonight(31st) but was quick in Happy Hour. On the other hand I just don't like Harvick this week. I know he won the million last week with this car but this is a totally different race this week. Does not have that good of a history here(only one Top 15 in the last six races) and has not done well on this type of track this year.
3.00 units Jeff Burton(-150@wsex)over Kevin Harvick
Similar reasons as stated above, actually like this play much better. Just too steep of a price. Burton is one of the guys I have circled for today. Very, very good on this type of track(1st@Texas, 4th@Atlanta).
3.00 units Jamie McMurray(+135@sportsbook.com)over Kurt Busch
Still on the McMurray train. Ran 5th, 15th, and 10th on 1.5 mile track this year. Lowe's is also the site of his one and only win in Cup. Busch has ran well of late and may do well today just think JMc could have a Top 10 type day or better.
3.00 units Matt Kenseth(+160@wsex)over Jimmie Johnson
Played this for value. I know Johnson dominates Lowes but Kenseth is the other guy I have circled for today. He always runs well on cookie-cutter tracks, 2nd and a 3rd so far this year.
3.00 units Clint Bowyer(+145@sportsbook.com)over Greg Biffle
Another play for value.
Props
3.00 units Ryan Newman(+300@betus)Highest Finishing Dodge in Group
over Busch/Kahne/Montoya/Sadler
Penske getting things back together, Newman three straight Top 10's and looking strong this weekend.
3.00 units Matt Kenseth(+340@thegreek)to win group
over J. Gordon/Stewart/Earnhardt/Ku. Busch
3.00 units Jeff Burton(+280@bodog)to win group
over Martin/Harvick/Ky. Busch/Hamlin
2.00 units Matt Kenseth(-115@sportsbook)to finish better than 6.5
2.00 units Jeff Burton(+105@sportsbook)to finish better than 7.5
YTD Totals
41-29 +39.05 units(Match-Ups)
07-07 + 8.95 units(Props)
02-49 - 18.50 units(Outrights0
Total: +29.50 units
Good luck and enjoy the race!
Match-ups
4.00 units Martin Truex Jr(+135@sportsbook.com)over Kevin Harvick
Truex has done very well on the 1.5 mile tracks like Lowes, Atlanta etc. Has two Top 10's this year(7th-Texas, 8th-Atlanta). Does not have a good starting spot for tonight(31st) but was quick in Happy Hour. On the other hand I just don't like Harvick this week. I know he won the million last week with this car but this is a totally different race this week. Does not have that good of a history here(only one Top 15 in the last six races) and has not done well on this type of track this year.
3.00 units Jeff Burton(-150@wsex)over Kevin Harvick
Similar reasons as stated above, actually like this play much better. Just too steep of a price. Burton is one of the guys I have circled for today. Very, very good on this type of track(1st@Texas, 4th@Atlanta).
3.00 units Jamie McMurray(+135@sportsbook.com)over Kurt Busch
Still on the McMurray train. Ran 5th, 15th, and 10th on 1.5 mile track this year. Lowe's is also the site of his one and only win in Cup. Busch has ran well of late and may do well today just think JMc could have a Top 10 type day or better.
3.00 units Matt Kenseth(+160@wsex)over Jimmie Johnson
Played this for value. I know Johnson dominates Lowes but Kenseth is the other guy I have circled for today. He always runs well on cookie-cutter tracks, 2nd and a 3rd so far this year.
3.00 units Clint Bowyer(+145@sportsbook.com)over Greg Biffle
Another play for value.
Props
3.00 units Ryan Newman(+300@betus)Highest Finishing Dodge in Group
over Busch/Kahne/Montoya/Sadler
Penske getting things back together, Newman three straight Top 10's and looking strong this weekend.
3.00 units Matt Kenseth(+340@thegreek)to win group
over J. Gordon/Stewart/Earnhardt/Ku. Busch
3.00 units Jeff Burton(+280@bodog)to win group
over Martin/Harvick/Ky. Busch/Hamlin
2.00 units Matt Kenseth(-115@sportsbook)to finish better than 6.5
2.00 units Jeff Burton(+105@sportsbook)to finish better than 7.5
YTD Totals
41-29 +39.05 units(Match-Ups)
07-07 + 8.95 units(Props)
02-49 - 18.50 units(Outrights0
Total: +29.50 units
Good luck and enjoy the race!
