Cnotes Top 25 College Basketball Previews For 01/21/17 !

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Preview: Waves (5-14) at Gaels (16-2)
Date: January 21, 2017 11:00 PM EDT


The Pepperdine team that showed promise in preseason is not the Pepperdine team No. 23 Saint Mary's will face Saturday night at McKeon Pavilion in Moraga, Calif.


The Waves were picked to finish fourth in the West Coast Conference preseason poll, but several injuries have robbed them of the personnel to compete in the 10-team WCC. While Saint Mary's (16-2, 6-1 WCC) is in second place, behind Gonzaga, Pepperdine (5-14, 1-6) sunk to last place.


The Waves handed the Gaels their only home loss of the season last year, but will have trouble duplicating that feat this time around.


Pepperdine senior point guard Amadi Udenyi is out with an Achilles tendon injury and forward Kameron Edwards, a member of the WCC all-freshman team a year ago, suffered a broken jaw in practice before the season began and has not played at all. Those are the most significant injuries that have left the Waves with nine scholarship players.


"Night and day, we're different," Pepperdine coach Marty Wilson told the Spokane Spokesman Review before conference play began. "We had Amadi (for six games) and we were playing well and felt comfortable, and we were looking forward to having Kam back. Losing them was tough."


Pepperdine started the season 4-1 with Udenyi in the lineup. Since then, the Waves have lost 13 of 14 games -- the only victory in that span coming on a one-point home win over Loyola Marymount when Chris Reyes scored on a put-back with two seconds left.


The Waves' 99-70 loss at BYU on Thursday was their fourth straight defeat and dropped their record to 0-8 in games on their opponent's home court. The high point of that game came in the first half, when Jeremy Major set the Pepperdine record for career assists.


Pepperdine led that game with 9:34 left in the first half, but trailed by 16 at halftime.


"The second 10 minutes of the first half is where it got away from us," Wilson said. "We gave them easy baskets, easy runouts. We had some blown assignments defensively, and we couldn't recover after that."


The Waves have had success against Saint Mary's recently, however. They won three of their past four meetings with Saint Mary's and handed the Gaels two of their three conference losses last season.


The other thing Pepperdine has going for it is the play of Lamond Murray Jr. He is averaging 20.3 points and scored at least 23 points in each of his last four games.


Maintaining that scoring average will be difficult on Saturday, because the Gaels rank second in the nation in scoring defense. They allow an average of 57.4 points per game following Thursday's 62-50 victory over Pacific.


Coach Randy Bennett was lukewarm on his team's play in that game, calling the overall performance, "OK."


"We took care of the ball," he said. "I can't think of anything we did really well, but I can't think of anything we did poorly either."


Saint Mary's opponents have been doubling 6-foot-11 center Jock Landale in the post recently, and his scoring has decreased as a result. He averaged 18.3 points through the first 15 games, but failed to score more than 10 points in any of the last three.


It has forced the Gaels to shoot more 3-pointers, and they made 13 of them against the Tigers.


"We did a great job of moving the ball around, kicking out and finding the open made," said Gaels forward Calvin Hermanson, who had a game-high 17 points and hit four 3-pointers. "When we do that, we feel like we get in a great rhythm and shots go down."


Saint Mary's relies on its patience and precise execution to get good shots.


"Saint Mary's is like Floyd Mayweather," Pacific coach Damon Stoudamire said. "They're like a counter-puncher. They run their stuff and they wait 'til somebody makes a mistake and then they capitalize."
 

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Saturday’s games


Georgia is 4-2 in SEC, losing to So Carolina by 6, in OT at Florida by 4- they won two of three SEC road tilts, winning at Auburn/Ole Miss. Dawgs are best SEC at getting to foul line and they make 73.9% once they get there. Texas A&M is 1-5 in SEC with home losses to Tennessee/Arkansas- they blew 12-point second half lead to Hogs in last game. Georgia won four of its last five games with A&M, winning by 7-9 points in last two visits here- Aggies won 79-45 in Athens LY. SEC home favorites of 3 or less points are 2-9 vs spread this season.


Louisville won its last four games, hammering Clemson by 32 in first game without injured PG Snider on Thursday. Cardinals are 1-1 in true road games, losing by 7 at Notre Dame, winning by 15 at Ga Tech. Florida State won 13 of last 14 games; they’re 5-1 in ACC, 4-0 at home, with three wins by 15+ points. ACC foes are shooting 46.1% outside arc vs FSU, just 42.9% inside arc. Louisville won by 22-19 points in its to ACC games with Florida State; teams were rivals in old Metro Conference years ago. ACC home favorites of 5 or less points are 8-4 vs spread.


Oklahoma State is 0-6 in Big X after a 10-2 pre-conference mark; Cowboys’ three Big 12 road losses are by 3-4-7 points. OSU is in bottom three of league in all nine Big X defensive metrics. Texas Tech won its last three games with Oklahoma State, by 1-2-10 points; State lost its last three visits to Lubbock, by 4-1-2 points. Tech is 3-0 at home (0-3 on road) in Big X, with wins by 1-1-6 points- they’re #8 experience team in country, starting three juniors, two seniors. Big X home favorites of 6 or less points are 5-5 vs spread this season.


Creighton is without PG Watson test of the way, a big blow. Bluejays are 5-1 in Big East, with only loss to Villanova- they won home games over Seton Hall by 14, Butler by 11. Creighton is 4-2 vs Marquette in Big East play, winning two of three here— Marquette pulled 66-61 (+7.5) upset here LY. Golden Eagles are 0-3 on Big East road, losing by 3-12-8 points- they won their other road game, by 10 at Georgia. Big East home favorites of 7+ points are 11-0-1 vs spread this season. Impossible to measure Creighton without Watson; they have no real backup PG.


South Carolina is 12-0 with Thornwell in lineup; they were 3-3 while he was gone. Gamecocks are 5-0 in SEC, with road wins at Georgia/Tennessee. Kentucky won its last six games, is 6-0 in SEC, with home wins by 42-26-20 points- they did lose at home to UCLA on Dec 3. Wildcats scored 93.8 pts/game in their last six games. Kentucky won eight of last nine games with South Carolina, winning last three by 15-34-27 points. Gamecocks lost their last 11 visits here, last five all by 15+ points. Double digit favorites are 5-9 vs spread in SEC games this year.


UCLA won its last six games; they’re 3-0 at home in Pac-12, winning by 10-14-22 points while scoring 90.7 pts/game. Arizona won its last 11 games, is also 6-0 in Pac-12, winning road tilts by 5-39-7 points while allowing 60 pts/game. Arizona won four of last six games with UCLA but lost four of last five games in Pauley Pavilion, last three of which were all decided by 5 or less points. Arizona is #324 experience team, UCLA #278; lot of talent on both sides, not much depth. Pac-12 home favorites of 6 or less points are 5-3 against the spread. Allonzo Trier is finally eligible to play; greatly helps Arizona’s depth, not sure if he is rusty, but he’s been practicing.


Wisconsin won 11 of last 12 games, is 2-2 in true road games, losing at Creighton/Purdue; Badgers are 4-1 in Big 14, allowing 63.2 pts/game- they’re forcing turnovers 23.1% of time in Big 14 games. Minnesota lost its last two games, scoring 48.5 pts/game, after a 15-2 start; Gophers are shooting 41% on arc, 44.8% inside arc in league play. 4 of 6 Minnesota Big 14 games were decided by 4 or less points or in OT. Wisconsin won its last five games with Minnesota, winning by 13-13 points in last two visits here. Big 14 road favorites are 4-6.


West Virginia is 4-2 in Big X, with both losses in OT; they’re 2-1 on Big X road, winning by 17 at OSU, 2 at Texas. Mountaineers force turnovers 24.9% of time in Big X games. K-State is 2-3 in its last five games, losing by 2-1-9 points- Big X teams are making 45.9% on arc against them. Wildcats get to foul line a lot, have best eFG% in conference. West Virginia won its last five games with Kansas State, winning by 6-4 points in its last two visits to the Little Apple- they won here in double OT LY. Big X road favorites are 4-4 vs spread this season.


Fresno State won five of last six games with Nevada; they beat Wolf Pack 77-76 in first meeting Dec 31, rallying back from down 10 in 2nd half (Fresno was 13-27 on line). Bulldogs won three of last four visits to Reno, but lost 77-72 in OT here LY. Fresno is 0-3 on Mountain West road, losing by 5-7-9 points; they are forcing turnovers 20.3% of time in MW play. Nevada played only six guys last game; they struggled guarding bulky Edo in first meeting— Oliver got in foul trouble, played only 22:00. MW home favorites of 7+ points are 5-2 vs spread this season.


Mississippi State was 51-77 (20-52 in SEC) the last four years (since Stansbury was fired); they are 12-5 this year, 3-2 in SEC, with 2nd-youngest team in country. Bulldogs are 3-2 in SEC, 2-0 on road, winning at LSU/Arkansas. Tennessee won five of its last six games with Mississippi State; road team won last four series games. Bulldogs won two of last three visits to Knoxville. Vols lost four of last five games; they’re 0-2 at home in SEC, losing to Arkansas/South Carolina. SEC home favorites of 5 or less points are 2-12 against the spread this season.


Indiana has injury issues with Anunoby/Morgan hurt; Hoosiers won three of last four games- they’re 1-2 in Big 14 home games, losing by 4-7 points to Nebraska/Wisconsin. Michigan State is 4-2 in big 14, losing last two road games, by 9 at Penn State, 5 at Ohio State. Spartans won their last five games with Indiana, winning by 17-2 points in last two visits here. State is turning ball over 20.1% of time in league; they’re #313 experience team- Indiana is #309. Big 14 home favorites of 6 or less points are 10-7 against the spread.


Baylor is 17-1 with only loss at West Va; they’re 5-1 in Big X, with three wins by 9+ points- they rebound 44% of their own misses, but also turn ball over 24% of time in Big X games. Bears are 2-1 on road, winning at Oklahoma/K-State, losing at WVU. TCU is 3-3 in Big X, 2-1 at home- they lost by 6 to Kansas, beat Oklahoma/Iowa State. Baylor is 9-0 vs TCU in Big X games, winning by 26-33-7-15 points here. 5 of TCU’s 6 Big X games were decided by 7 or less points. Road teams are 5-4 vs spread in Big X games with spread of 3 or less points this season.


Duke is 1-2 since Coach K left, beating BC by 11 in only home game; they lost last two games by 16-9 points, giving up 83 pts/game- they miss injured C Jefferson. Blue Devils were just 12-36 on arc last two games; they need more from Allen. Miami lost three of last four games, losing 96-79 at Wake Forest Wednesday. Hurricanes is shooting just 58.7% on foul line in ACC tilts. Miami won four of last six games with Duke, winning last two by 16-11 points- they won two of last three visits to Durham. Single digit home favorites are 13-8 in ACC games this season.
 

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