Cnotes Previewing College Football 2016 !

[CNOTES]

Big Ten West Predictions
August 9, 2016




Strictly from a scheduling perspective, I’m not sure if I can ever remember a team that goes into a season enjoying such a decisive advantage over the other contenders in its division than the one Iowa does in 2016.


Four of Iowa’s five road games are against opponents that had losing seasons last year. The toughest road assignment is at Penn State on Nov. 5, but the Hawkeyes have an open date in front of that showdown against a PSU squad that’s off a 7-6 campaign.


The draw from the Big Ten East doesn’t include two of the top three programs. Ohio State and Michigan State are absent from Iowa’s slate. Michigan is on the schedule, but the Wolverines have to come to Iowa City.


Perhaps most important, Iowa’s biggest challengers in the Big Ten West must come to Kinnick Stadium. This group includes Northwestern (10/1), Wisconsin (10/22) and Nebraska (11/25, for a Friday game on a short week).


On the flip side, Wisconsin plays all three of the big boys from the Big Ten East. Not only that, but the Badgers have to play in East Lansing and Ann Arbor in back-to-back weeks. Then they have an open date before hosting Ohio St.


Wisconsin has won at least 10 games in seven of its last 11 seasons. Furthermore, UW has at least nine victories in nine of the last 11 years. However, the Badgers will almost certainly be underdogs in five of their first seven games in 2016.


They open at Lambeau Field vs. LSU and most spots currently have the Tigers favored by 10 points. After a pair of easy wins at home over Akron and Georgia State, Wisconsin must navigate the aforementioned three-game gauntlet vs. the Big Ten East powerhouses. Next, it’s at Iowa before Nebraska at home and at Northwestern. Phil Steele ranks UW’s schedule as the nation’s ninth toughest and the most difficult of all teams in the Big Ten.


As for Nebraska, it has a tough non-conference game vs. Oregon, although it is in Lincoln. The Cornhuskers don’t have to meet the Michigan schools, but they play at Ohio State after going to Camp Randall the previous week. Not only does Mike Riley’s team face Wisconsin on the road, but it also has to play at Northwestern and, as noted earlier, at Iowa on a short week.


Northwestern has to play Michigan State and Ohio State, and both of those games are on the road. Meanwhile, Minnesota and Purdue don’t have any games against Michigan, Ohio State or Michigan State We know that’s irrelevant with the Boilermakers, who have just two Big Ten wins in the last three seasons. We’ll get to the Gophers below in our predictions.

1) Iowa: I’m all about Iowa to win the Big Ten West. I’ve seen those odds at even money, +130 and the best return I’ve seen is +150. Obviously, I’m more bullish on it according to the payout, but I still recommend it if even money is the best you can get. Likewise, I’m strong on Iowa ‘over’ 8.5 wins (-130 at The Westgate as of 8/8).


Kirk Ferentz’s squad went 12-2 last season, going undefeated in the regular season before dropping a 16-13 heartbreaker to Michigan State at the Big Ten Championship Game when the Spartans scored the game-winning points in the final minute. Iowa returns eight starters on defense and five on offense.


Senior quarterback C.J. Beathard was a second-team All Big Ten selection in ’15 when he completed 61.6 percent of his passes for 2,809 yards with a 17/5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. His favorite target Matt VandeBerg is back after hauling in 65 receptions for 703 yards and four TDs. Leading rusher Jordan Canzeri is gone, but LeShun Daniels (646 rushing yards & eight TDs) and Akrum Wadley (496 rushing yards & seven TDs) are back in the mix.


The defense allowed only 20.4 points per game in ’15 and might be better this year. Junior LB Josey Jewell had 126 tackles, three sacks, 4.5 tackles for loss, six passes broken up, four interceptions and two QB hurries last season. CB Desmond King is off a first-team All-American year in which he had 72 tackles, eight interceptions and 13 passes broken up. I can’t fathom the Hawkeyes not going at least 9-3 with the way their schedule sets up. I’ll call for a 10-2 mark.

2) Nebraska: Riley’s squad had a rocky first season, limping to a 6-7 record. However, there was a lot of bad luck. In fact, the Cornhuskers owned a +605 yardage advantage over their opponents for the season, but they were undone by a -11 turnover margin. Six of Nebraska’s seven defeats came in one-possession games. Four losses came by eight combined points. One loss came to BYU in the opener when the Cougars hit a Hail Mary on the game’s final play for a 33-28 victory. Despite the 5-7 regular season, Nebraska was given a bowl bid and closed the year on a positive note with a 37-29 win over UCLA.


The Cornhuskers bring back seven starters on offense and six on defense. Senior QB Tommy Armstrong threw for 3,030 yards and 22 TDs while also rushing for 400 yards and seven scores in ’15. However, he has to cut down on his interceptions after being picked off 16 times last year. Armstrong has a 53/36 career TD-INT ratio.


Armstrong has all of his receivers back, including Jordan Westerkamp, who had 65 catches for 918 yards and seven TDs last season. The defense returns five of its top six tacklers after giving up 27.8 PPG in ‘15.


Nebraska’s season win total is 8.5 shaded to the ‘over’ at a -130 price. It’s a pass for me as I see the Cornhuskers going 8-4.

3) Wisconsin: I have the Badgers starting the year 2-5, but they’ll finish strong with five consecutive victories. They went 10-3 in Paul Chryst’s first season, capturing a 23-21 win over Southern Cal at the Holiday Bowl.


UW returns six starters apiece on offense and defense. RB Corey Clement couldn’t stay healthy in ’15 after averaging 7.0 YPC in a back-up role as a freshman and a sophomore. The hope is that he’ll return to form. The QB position is a question mark, with senior Bart Houston as the leading candidate to win the starting job.


The defense lost DC Dave Aranda to LSU. Chryst filled that slot with Justin Wilcox, who comes from Boise State but has also served as DC at Tennessee, Washington and USC in the past. The Badgers’ defense in ’15 gave up only 13.7 PPG. Gamblers should check the status of LB T.J. Edwards, who was the team’s leading tackler last year but was recently injured. His status for LSU was ‘questionable’ at last check.

4) Minnesota: Minnesota finished 6-7 last season, winning only two Big Ten games over Purdue and Illinois. The Gophers return seven starters on offense and six on defense.


Senior QB Mitch Leidner has dealt with a foot injury for more than a year, but all reports out of Minneapolis have indicated that he’s looked healthy since practice started. He has 29 career starts to his credit with a 28/20 TD-INT ratio. Leidner has rushed for more than 1,000 career yards and had six rushing scores in ’15. His favorite target K.J. Maye (73 catches, 773 yards & five TDs) is gone, but all the other WRs are back along with the top two RBs.


The defense was respectable last season, allowing 25.2 PPG. However, this unit lost four of its top six tacklers. I believe the Gophers will go 7-5, losing at home to Iowa and in four of five road contests.

5) Northwestern: Following back-to-back 5-7 campaigns, Northwestern responded with a 10-3 record. The Wildcats won five one-possession games. The season was highlighted by a pair of non-conference wins vs. Stanford (16-6) and at Duke (19-10).


On the down side, all three defeats in ’15 were complete blowouts. Northwestern went to The Big House with a 5-0 record, only to get dealt cream-cheese treatment by Michigan in the form of a 38-0 bagel. The Wildcats were routed 40-10 at home by Iowa their next time out. Following a five-game winning streak to close the regular season, they took a 45-6 thumping from Tennessee at the Outback Bowl. Despite finishing seven games over .500, Northwestern had just a +106 yardage advantage over its foes for the season.


Pat Fitzgerald’s squad returns 12 starters, six on each side of the ball. Junior RB Justin Jackson was a second-team All Big Ten pick after rushing for 1,418 yards and five TDs as a sophomore. As a freshman, QB Clayton Thorson was thrust into a starting role and rushed for 397 yards and five TDs. He completed only 50.8 percent of his throws and had more interceptions (nine) than TD passes (seven), though.


The defense was sensational in ’15, surrendering only 18.6 PPG. This unit is led by junior LB Anthony Walker, who was a third-team All-American and a first-team All Big Ten selection after recording 122 tackles, 16.5 tackles for loss, four sacks, two QB hurries and one interception. The secondary will be solid with safety Godwin Igwebuike (87 tackles) and CB Matthew Harris (48 tackles, four interceptions and 13 passes broken up).


Northwestern’s win total is 6.5 flat (-110 either way). I see the Wildcats starting strong again, winning their first four games. However, I have them losing at Iowa, at Michigan St., at Ohio St., vs. Wisconsin and at Minnesota.

6) Purdue: Darrell Hazell has compiled a 6-30 record during his three-year tenure at Purdue. The Boilermakers bring back 16 starters (eight on each side of the ball) from a 2-10 team that beat Indiana State and Nebraska. I have them going 2-10, beating Eastern Kentucky and Nevada at home, with Hazell taking a pink slip.

 

[CNOTES]

Big Ten West - Best Bets
August 13, 2016




Illinois – UNDER 4.5 Wins
2015 Record - 5-7


The Illini came up with 5 wins last year and we look for this year’s team to take a step back. First of all, they have a brand new coaching staff which means new schemes on both sides of the ball. The feeling through/learning process usually takes a full year as teams under a new coach tend to improve quite a bit between years 1 & 2.


Lovie Smith is the new head man and he last coached in college in 1995. He inherits a fairly inexperienced team with just 11 starters returning and only 38 lettermen back (the least in the Big Ten). The offense last year was bad averaging only 17 PPG in conference play but the defense was actually pretty solid. The problem is, the Illini defense loses nearly everyone of importance including 6 of their top 7 tacklers so they are starting nearly from scratch on the side of the ball that was a positive last year. The D-Line should be solid but the defensive back 7 is a total rebuild. Wes Lunt is back at QB but he was OK at best (2,760 yards passing and just 14 TD’s last season) and he is going to have to operate behind a fairly new offensive line.


This team scored 20 or less in 6 of their 8 Big Ten games last year and we’re not sure new offensive coordinator Garrick McGee (formerly at Louisville) has the pieces in place to make a quick turnaround. There is a good chance the Illini go 1-2 in the non-conference as they play a very solid North Carolina team and the top team in the MAC, Western Michigan. If that happens they are in trouble. They play only 4 Big Ten home games (5 on the road) and must play both Michigan & Michigan State from the East Division. We think Illinois falls short of 5 wins this year.


Iowa – OVER 8.5 Wins
2015 Record - 12-0


Iowa was 12-0 in the regular season last year and nobody is really talking about this team. By no means do we think the Hawks can sweep the board again in the regular season as they did last year but they will still be very solid. We actually felt Iowa was overvalued for much of last year. They were actually outgained in 5 of their final 10 games but were lucky to be +11 in turnovers for the season. However, with this number set at just 8.5, we have to believe this Iowa team can get to 9 wins which is still a full 3 games less than what they won a year ago.


The schedule lays out very nicely for the Hawkeyes. They play 5 road games in the Big Ten but all against teams that had losing records last year (Rutgers, Illinois, Purdue, Minnesota, and Penn State). They should roll through their non-conference slate (Miami Oh, North Dakota State, and Iowa State) meaning a 6-3 conference record puts them at 9 wins. They have the top returning QB in the conference in pass efficiency (CJ Beathard). If RB LeShun Daniels stays healthy (he was injured last year) he could be very good. The OL will be solid as it always is at Iowa. The defense returns 8 starters including their 12 of their top 15 tacklers. Again, we felt Iowa wasn’t as good as their record last year. However, they aren’t getting much respect here and they are good enough to get to 9 wins this season, especially the way the schedule lays out.


Minnesota – OVER 6 Wins
2015 Record - 5-7


The Gophs had 5 regular season wins last year but this season we feel their schedule will allow them to get to at least 6 wins with a strong chance they push it to 7. Last year they played both Michigan & Ohio State from the Big Ten East and this season they miss both along with Michigan State. They play host in all 3 of their non-conference games (Oregon St, Indiana St, and Colorado St) so they probably come out of that 3-0. They host both Rutgers and Purdue so that gets them to 5 wins. They have winnable road games at Maryland, at Illinois, and at Penn State along with a home tilt vs Northwestern.


QB Leidner returns for his 3rd year as a starter and has all of his key RB’s returning and all but one of his top WR’s. The offensive line is a work in progress but if they do progress up front, this team will be pretty good. Defensively they allowed 25 PPG last year and we would look for them to remain near that number this year. The offense should take a nice step forward under new OC Jacobs and we look for their numbers to improve by quite a bit in 2016. We like this team to definitely get to 6-6 at worst with a good change of 7-5 so we lean OVER.


Nebraska – UNDER 8.5 Wins
2015 Record - 5-7


The Huskers were much better than their 5-7 regular season record last season. They had an incredible 5 losses occur in the last seconds of the game and only once were the topped by double digits. They actually outgained their opponents by 47 YPG last season and had losses of 1, 2, 3, and 5 points. Nebraska will have a senior QB at the helm in Tommy Armstrong who has been a multiple year starter. They played one of their best offensive games of the season in their bowl game topping UCLA 37-29 rolling up 500 yards of total offense.


So after all of that, why do we like this one UNDER?


First of all the offensive line will be very green. The Huskers lose 3 starters up front and their entire offensive line will have just 24 combined starts entering the season which is one of the lowest totals in college football. Secondly, their defense was shaky at best last year allowing 400 YPG for the first time in 8 years. They now must replace their entire front 4. This isn’t the blackshirt defense of old. Lastly, they played conference road games at Ohio State, at Wisconsin, at Iowa, and at Northwestern. Going 0-4 in those games is not out of the question and where this number is set they can only afford to lose 3 games this season. Add home games vs Oregon and an under rated Minnesota team and a undefeated home season is not a guarantee. We look for an 8-4 season out of Nebraska which puts them UNDER this number.


Northwestern – OVER 6.5 Wins
2015 Record - 10-2


This team was not as good as their 10-3 record last year. Their 3 losses were blowouts as the Cats lost to Michigan, Iowa, and Tennessee by a combined score of 123-16! On the flip side, a number of their wins were down to the wire with single digit margins of 2, 2, 5, 6, 7, and 9 points. However, after winning 10 last year, this year’s number has been adjusted down to 6.5 which we now think has become too low. Our worst case scenario for the Cats is 6-6 with best case looking like 8-4.


That would have us leaning to the OVER. The defense was very good last year allowing only 18 PPG on 319 total YPG. They should be very solid again on that side of the ball with key contributors back at all 3 levels and almost 70% of their tackles returning. Offensively is where this team really needs to take a jump after averaging only 19 PPG last season. It puts too much pressure on the defense if they have to hold teams under 20 points each game to win. We look for a big improvement offensively with QB Thorson in his 2nd year as a starter, RB Jackson (1,400 yards rushing) and a solid offensive line back. We like Northwestern to get to at least 7 wins this year.


Purdue – UNDER 4.5 Wins
2015 Record - 2-10


This is a team that has won just 6 games in the last 3 years combined. Will they be improved this year? Possibly. Enough to get to 5 wins this year? We don’t think so. They do have 16 starters back which is more than any other team in the Big Ten. However, this team was bad on both sides of the ball last year allowing 458 YPG in Big Ten while gaining only 342 YPG offensively.


They will have to make a drastic improvement to get to 5 wins as they were just 2-10 last year. Their wins came over Indiana State (not a big deal) and Nebraska (Huskers outgained Boilers). Purdue has won only 2 of their last 24 Big Ten games and they’ll have to win at least 3 this year alone to get over this number. They have a “chance” to go 2-1 in the non-conference but that’s not a given. We have them losing at home to Cincinnati (a very good team this year) and a toss up game vs Nevada who is one of the better teams in the Mountain West.


They will be underdogs in all 4 of their Big Ten home games (Iowa, Wisconsin, Penn St, and Northwestern) so they will have to pick up some wins on the road this year. That might be tough for a team that is just 1-18 their last 3 seasons away from home. We just don’t see Purdue winning more than 4 games this year if they can even get to that number.


Wisconsin - UNDER 7 Wins
2015 Record - 9-3


The Badgers are a team that could actually be better than last year’s 9-3 regular season team but have a much worse record. Their schedule is brutal. Easily the toughest in the Big Ten and one of the top 3 toughest slates in the nation. Want to hear their opening 6 conference games? Try this…at Michigan State, at Michigan, Ohio State, at Iowa, Nebraska, and then at Northwestern. It probably won’t happen but it’s not completely out of the question this team starts 0-6 in the league. That doesn’t even count their season opener vs LSU.


All of that while trying to break in a brand new QB is not conducive to a good record. The offensive line will be very good. Much better than last year. RB Corey Clement missed most of last year and reports are he is back at full strength and should be one of the best backs on the nation. The QB will either be senior Bart Houston or redshirt freshman Alex Hornibrook. Houston has played a little bit and Hornibrook has never stepped foot into a college game. The defense should again be very solid and word is new DC Justin Wilcox (DC at USC last year) has done a very nice job thus far.


We see Wisconsin as a 6-6 team this year due to their schedule. It’s possible they could get to 7-5 which would be a push on the win total but we don’t see how this team gets to 8 wins. If this team has last year’s schedule we’re probably looking at double digit wins. Not this year as they are underdogs to LSU to open the year and will most likely be getting points in their first 5 Big Ten games.

 

[CNOTES]

C-USA Outlook - West
August 10, 2016




Conference USA - West Division Preview


Following is our a look at Conference USA, first previewing the West half of the loop before taking a look at the East in our next installment. Once again, teams are presented in order of predicted finish, with 2015 SU, pointspread, and O/U records included...


Perhaps the closest thing to a perennial power in Conference USA has been Louisiana Tech (2015 SUR 9-4, PSR 7-6, O/U 8-5), which has quietly cranked out at least eight wins in four of the past five seasons and romped to its second postseason win in a row last December when walloping Arkansas State in the New Orleans Bowl, 12 months after burying Illinois in the Dallas Bowl. Considering the questionable status of the rest of the Western half of the loop, another bowl trip appears likely even with a demanding non-conference slate (more on that in a moment) and some considerable reloading to do after losing various key cogs to graduation.


One key cog that has stuck around, however, is HC Skip Holtz, who seems to have found a home in Ruston. While Holtz might still have a chance re-climb the coaching ladder at a “Big Five” conference school down the road, for the time being he seems content at Tech after being whip-sawed out of his last gig at South Florida. With plenty of security at Tech, Holtz appears in no hurry to leave, and seems very unlikely to make a move similar to Southern Miss’ Todd Monken, who bailed out last winter to take a job on the staff of the NFL Tampa Bay Bucs.


(Besides, the NFL and the Holtz family don’t seem to mix, as those of us old enough to remember papa Lou’s one disastrous season with the New York Jets in 1976 before heading back to the college ranks at Arkansas, know. So we don’t think Bulldog fans have to worry about Skip doing a “Todd Monken” anytime soon.)


Admittedly, however, the fact we are placing Tech on top of its division of C-USA has a much to do with the plight of the other entries in the Western half all having as many or more questions than the Bulldogs. With half of the West also employing new head coaches this fall, the relative stability Holtz provides Tech must be viewed as a positive for the Ruston bunch, too.


Holtz, who has done a nice job resurrecting his career at Tech, nonetheless has some significant questions to answer entering this season. A potent offense that ranked in the top 20 nationally in scoring (37.5 ppg) must replace a pair of NFL draftees in productive QB Jeff Driskel and decorated RB Kenneth Dixon, the latter a TD machine who was a fourth-round pick of the Ravens last April. Dixon’s 87 career TDs will be almost impossible for one player to replace, as Holtz and new o.c. Todd Fitch likely to employ a RB-by-committee approach, with jr. waterbug Boston Scott (who gained 8.1 ypc in limited work last season that included a 77-yard run in the bowl win) the most likely to get extra carries.


The QB position, however, is drawing the most scrutiny after Holtz was blessed with grad transfers Cody Sokol (via Iowa) and Driskel (via Florida) the last two seasons. Driskel, a sixth-round pick of the 49ers, passed for over 4000 yards and 27 TDs last year out of the Holtz spread, but expected replacement jr. Ryan Higgins is not a greenhorn, having started six games pre-Sokol and Driskel, way back in 2013, when injuries decimated the QB position for Skip’s first Bulldog edition. Higgins understandably struggled (just 6 TDP and 13 picks) when thrown in the fire as a frosh, but is now three years older and well-versed in the Holtz offense.


Moreover, the versatile Higgins, who solidified his starting status in spring, is comfy in the read-option, though his primary task will be to get the ball in the hands of an experienced receiving corps which returns three starters including glue-fingered slot man Trent Taylor (99 catches last season) and deep threat wide man Carlos Henderson (21.5 yards per reception in 2015). Utah transfer Alfred Smith is another Henderson-like speedburner who along with soph returnee Kam McKnight were the main storylines of the spring game when combining for 226 yards worth of receptions. The line is in good shape with three returning starters plus G Kirby Watson, a starter in 2014 who missed all of 2015 due to injury.


While most C-USA observers believe the offense will not drop off too much from recent editions, especially if QB Higgins is up to the task, there are question about a “D” that lost eight starters from one of the better stop units in the conference. Very difficult to replace will be star DT Vernon Butler, a 1st-round NFL draft pick of the Carolina Panthers and a main reason the Bulldogs were able to rank 13th nationally vs. the run a year ago.


Transfers, including ex-Arizona State CB Ronald Lewis, ex-Hawaii CB Jerrell Jackson, and juco S DeMarion King, all figure to get a chance to play in a hurry in the secondary around SS Xavier Woods, an All-CUSA pick as a frosh. The Butler-less DL returns starting DEs Aaron Brown and Deldrick Canty. The real concern for d.c. Blake Baker is a completely new LB corps that will be counting heavily upon RS frosh Donald Scott and Collin Scott to step into the mix and deliver right away.


Tech has dealt with tough non-league schedules before and this season will be no different, as the Bulldogs figure to be substantial road underdogs in September dates at Arkansas and Texas Tech. Early league tests at Middle Tennessee and at home vs. Western Kentucky will prove more enlightening regarding any expected challenge for conference honors. The West title might eventual come down to a season-ending showdown vs. Southern Miss, a game in which Holtz should have no trouble getting the Bulldogs ready after the Golden Eagles won 58-24 at Ruston last November.


Spread-wise, remember that Holtz was highly successful in a dog role a decade ago at East Carolina and is 6-1 as the “short” the past two seasons. After covering 8 of 9 away from Joe Aillet Stadium in 2014, the Bulldogs only covered 2 of 6 on the road last season, though Skip’s two-year overall spread mark is a solid 18-9.


Fans at Southern Miss (2015 SUR 9-5, PSR 10-4, O/U 6-8) were reminded once again of their place in college football’s pecking order after HC Todd Monken abruptly left his post for a chance to return to the NFL, this time on the Tampa Bay Bucs staff, after the Golden Eagles forged an uplifting breakthrough campaign last fall. Though Monken’s surprise departure should not be equated with other disappearing acts into the night, like when the Colts abandoned Baltimore in the dead of night in early 1984 and headed to Indianapolis. After all, it’s not often that coaches have a chance to make a move from Hattiesburg straight into the NFL and a coordinator’s gig. Moreover, Monken has NFL roots and a connection to new Tampa Bay HC Dirk Koetter, with whom Monken served on the Jacksonville Jaguars staff between 2007-10. Even the most diehard USM boosters did not begrudge Monken for his move.


Rather than look on staff for Monken’s replacement, however, the Golden Eagles turned to Jay Hopson, who most recently had resurrected the fortunes at Alcorn State as the HC of the Braves. Hopson also has USM roots, having served two stints on Jeff Bower’s staffs between 2001-03 and 2005-07, so he is not completely unfamiliar with Roberts Stadium and Hattiesburg.


Thus, Golden Eagles fans have a bit better feel about the new braintrust than they did four years ago, when the program collapsed under Ellis Johnson, a decorated defensive coordinator who had failed in previous HC attempts and did the same at Hattiesburg, losing all 12 games in 2012 after Larry Fedora high-tailed it to North Carolina. The program had been destructed in short order before Monken arrived in 2013 and began to slowly put the pieces together, resulting in last year’s crown in the West half of the loop and a berth in the Dallas Bowl. Along with Monken’s move, o.c. du jour Chip Lindsey was also targeted and took a big pay raise to assume the same role at Arizona State.


Hopson, and new o.c. Shannon Dawson (who was dismissed at Kentucky after last season), both have roots in the “Air Raid” so don’t expect too many schematic changes in the Golden Eagle offense that would dramatically more than double its per game scoring output last year, up to a whopping 39.9 ppg, ranking 13th in the country. Moreover, the trigger-man of the renaissance, QB Nick Mullens, returns for his senior season after passing for a whopping 4476 yards and 38 TDs a year ago. Thus, changing much of the offensive philosophy would seem ill-advised.


Mullens, a four-year starter and last year’s C-USA Offensive MVP, has several of his key weapons returning around him, including jitterbug RB Ito Smith, who bounced for 1128 YR in the balanced Golden Eagle “O” that would rank 12th nationally last season. The OL is long in the tooth with three multi-year starters led by C Cameron Tom, an All-CUSA selection.


Another plus for Mullens is the return of sr. WR D.J. Thompson, who caught a hefty 55 passes a year ago. Former Middle Tennessee and juco transfer Shannon Smith has big-play potential that was flashed in spring, while holdover soph Korey Robertson is expected to make contributions.


The defense will have more overt changes from the platoon that provided almost equal improvement to the offense a year ago when the Golden Eagles ranked first in C-USA in yards allowed. Hopson, however, has brought in his own d.c., Tony Pecoraro, who plans to transition USM from its traditional 4-3 base alignments into a more multiple scheme featuring 3-3-5 and 4-2-5 looks. Last year’s coordinator, David Duggan, who oversaw the dramatic upgrades, has been reassigned to coach the LBs.


Many of the headliners from last year’s defense, including leading tackler sr. D’Nerius Antoine, who flourished last season at FS but was moved to OLB in spring, top pass rusher sr. DE Dylan Bradley, and a pair of stalwarts in the secondary, jr. CB Cornell Armstrong and all-name DD Picasso Nelson, Jr., remain in the fold. Like Antoine, however, Bradley was also position-switched in spring, moved to DT by the new staff, causing some C-USA observers to wonder if Hopson and Pecoraro might be doing a bit too much tampering with what was a pretty good thing last fall. Time will tell.


One area that could use some upgrading is on special teams, where sr. PK Stephen Brauchle missed four PATs and his only FG try beyond 40 yards last season. Meanwhile, sr. P Tyler Sarazin hit more line drives last fall than Ichiro Suzuki, as only one of his 45 punts resulted in a fair catch.


The schedule includes two non-league road games at SEC entries, but the Golden Eagles think they have a shot in the opener at Kentucky, where o.c. Dawson returns with a score to settle with Mark Stoops. A midseason trip to LSU will prove a more difficult assignment. USM might also be favored in all of its C-USA games and gets only Marshall among the top contenders from the East half. Thus, another bowl visit is a minimum expectation this fall, though we wonder about the various staff and scheme changes on “D” that might make it hard to replicate last season’s nine wins and C-USA West crown.


Spread-wise, Monken forged quite a turnaround last season, as the Golden Eagles improved to 10-4 vs. the number after covering just 7 of 24 tries in Monken’s first two campaigns. The Golden Eagles also handled several big numbers last season en route to a 7-1 mark as chalk.


Longtime fans at Rice (2015 SUR 5-7, PSR 5-7, O/U 7-5) have seen worse than the late-season collapse last fall that broke the Owls’ three-year bowl streak. After all, this was a program that went 45 years between 1961-2006 without going to a bowl and did not record a winning record for the entirety of the ‘70s or ‘80s. So, for those Rice fans who can vividly recall the Gemini and Apollo space programs and the heyday of crosstown Mission Control, last year’s fade was no big deal. But new-age Owl backers who have been used to some degrees of success in the HC David Bailiff era could be excused for voicing their displeasure when last season would unravel after a promising beginning.


It wasn’t just that 2015 took a nosedive for the Owls, it was the manner of their late-season collapse that alarmed the handful of loyal backers of the second-smallest FBS school (only Tulsa being smaller enrollment-wise). Though having the excuse of being injury-riddled, the Rice defense nonetheless collapsed down the stretch last season, reaching its nadir when on the wrong end of a 65-10 bombing by Southern Miss in mid-November. When the dust had cleared, the Owls ranked a nation’s worst in yards per play defense (7.1 ypp), while also finishing near the bottom of national stats in sacks (ranking a poor 111th with a mere 16) and with only two interceptions, part of a measly 10 takeaways, which tied for last in the country.


Obviously, Rice has a crying need for playmakers on its traditionally undersized defense, though again, the spate of injuries a year ago had something to do with the downturn. Bailiff was forced to use 31 true or redshirt frosh in 2015, the highest such mark in the country.


As usual, the Owls’ best chance is to simply outscore foes, but that might be a bit more difficult after the departure of longtime QB Driphus Jackson. Senior Tyler Stehling, Jackson’s caddy the past two years, gets his one shot at running the offense this fall after limited work a year ago when competing 24 of 48 passes for 320 yards and 2 TDs in five games. The 6'6 Stehling is regarded as an accurate passer and is not afraid to move out of the pocket, but he does not quite bring the mobility that allowed Jackson to run some read-option the past two years. Instead, the Owls expected to run more uptempo this season after Bailiff switched assignments for some of his offensive assistants, with Billy Lynch assuming play-calling duties and Larry Edmondson concentrates on the QBs in Rice’s unique co.-o.c. arrangement.


Though the Owls are expected to play at a faster pace, the infantry component is not likely to be abandoned after Rice has been consistently able to balance its offense in recent years. In fact, the run might become more integral this fall with the top four RBs still in the fold from a year ago, including 215-lb. sr. slasher Darik Dillard, who has accounted for more than 1300 yards plus 16 TDs the past two seasons. The ability to establish the run also allows Rice to play a bit more ball control and keep its vulnerable defense off of the field. Three starters return on the OL, including soph tackles Calvin Anderson and Sam Pierce, who had to grow up quickly a year ago when thrown into the fire as frosh.


Still, Stehling rates as a bit of an unknown especially in comparison to predecessor Jackson, who was able to get the ball downfield and into the hands of his receivers with some consistency. There is experience among the passing targets, with sr. WR Zach Wright (39 catches LY) the leading receiver in 2015, while jr. WR Temi Alaka and sr. TE Connor Celia are other returning starters.


Bailiff also is casting a wary eye upon his kicking game, especially with former walk-on PK Hayden Tobola making just 8 of his 13 FG tries a year ago. Moreover, effective P James Farrimond has graduated, though soph replacement Jack Fox reportedly has a strong leg.


Of course, getting back to a bowl will require a better showing on defense after last season’s meltdown. Beleaguered coordinator Chris Thurmond is hoping that the experience forged by fire due to injuries last fall will provide him with more capable depth as eight starters return to the defensive fold. For what it’s worth, Bailiff claims to be impressed with the platoon’s athleticism, speed, and ability to tackle well in space, though Rice could do no better than hold foes to 36 ppg last season, tied for a poor 108th in the nation.


The DL rotation, mostly comprised of frosh a year ago, simply must generate more QB pressure. Junior DE Grayson Schantz, who missed all but one game last season due to a torn ACL, is expected to help juice the pass rush. The pivot point of the platoon is sr. MLB Alex Lyons, who has led the Owls in tackles each of the past two seasons. Thurmond experimented with some position switches in spring, including sr. Tabari McCaskey, moved from OLB to SS, a change expected to stick into the regular season.


Despite last season’s fade, the Owls did not exactly fall off of the map with five wins, and they’ve won a respectable 30 games since 2012, the most in a four-year span in school history. They’ve also opened up a new $31 million football center in one of the endzones at the refurbished Rice Stadium, now downsized to 47,000 seats but still offering some of the best sightlines in college football. With the exception of a Sept. 17 visit by Baylor, Rice figures to have a chance to win the other five home games in its new-look stadium, though the road slate is treacherous, with trips to C-USA powers Western Kentucky, Southern Miss, and La Tech, plus a season-ender at Pac-12 heavyweight Stanford. Still, there appear to be enough winnable dates for the Owls to once again get bowl-eligible.


Spread-wise, Bailiff has often delivered impressive marks in his nine years on the job, and had covered 27 times over a 38-game stretch into early last season before the Owls dropped 7 of their last 9 vs. the number. Bailiff has been able to take care of business lately as home chalk, covering 12 of 16 in that role since 2012.


It’s not easy getting to back-to-back bowls at UTEP (2015 SUR 5-7, PSR 6-6, O/U 4-8), which has turned that trick only once in the past 61 years, when Mike Price took his first two Miner editions into the postseason in 2004 & ‘05. So, using that as context, perhaps there should be no alarms going off at the Sun Bowl after HC Sean Kugler was unable to follow up the 2014 New Mexico Bowl qualifier with another bowl visit last season.


Still, the plight of the UTEPs of the college football world was underlined quite nicely, unfortunately so, by the 2015 Miners, who could not sustain a move to the .500 mark with a rash of injuries that exposed the lack of depth that often hinders programs in the lower reaches of the FBS ranks. Though considering how the QB position, among others, was impacted, perhaps Kugler did well to get to five wins, especially with an offense that would rank a poor 112th (at a mere 20.7 ppg) in scoring. Along the way, Kugler’s team demonstrated some scrap, winning three games by exactly three points.


Entering his fourth season at his alma mater, Kugler does seem to have progressed the program from the deteriorating hulk he inherited from Price in 2013. Still, there is a bit of unease in the border town, where locals who cheer for the AAA Chihuahuas of of the PCL during baseball season believe Kugler might be the coach to finally lend stability and success to the program. Others, however, noting that Kugler is well-regarded in the profession and has past experience in the NFL ranks, wonder if Kugler might soon take the Todd Monken route out of C-USA and back to the pro ranks if the opportunity should arise. Stay tuned for further developments.


In the meantime, the Miners seem to have a fighting chance to get back into the bowl mix, but only if Kugler can find some continuity at the QB position. Mack Leftwich, who took most of the snaps last fall, was lost for the season in spring due to an arm injury, and 2015 backups Ryan Metz and Kavika Johnson were less than convincing in their spring work. There is a new option, Fresno State graduate transfer Zack Greenlee, who made a handful of starts for the Bulldogs and has two years of eligibility remaining. Greenlee, however, left much to be desired with his performances in Fresno. Thus, Kugler enters fall camp without a clear idea who will be taking snaps for the opener vs. New Mexico State on September 3.


On what appears to be the plus side, Kugler, calling on past coaching contacts, in particular the Fiesta Bowl-winning Boise State staff on which he served in 2006, dialed up old friend Brent Pease, also on that Broncos staff, to take over as offensive coordinator. While Pease works on sorting out the QB mess, he can call upon slashing RB Aaron Jones, who gained 1314 YR in 2014 before missing almost all of last season with an ankle injury. The top receivers from 2015 all return, including wideouts Jaquan White and Tyler Batson, who combined for 78 receptions a year ago. There is a behemoth, Arkansas-sized OL averaging 320 pounds that has ample experience with three returning starters and the most NFL-looking player on the roster in 330-lb. RT Jerrod Brooks. Touted juco transfer Tanner Stallings is slated to start at the C spot.


The new coordinator theme continues on defense with the addition of vet d.c. Tom Mason, most recently at Hawaii but before that having established his credentials with June Jones at SMU and Pat Hill at Fresno State. Mason, looking forward to some calm after being part of staffs where the head coaches (Jones at SMU in 2014, and Norm Chow at Hawaii last season) changed during the season the past two years, will be altering things on the stop end, importing his time-tested 3-4 alignment to replace the 4-2-5, intent on installing his “fire-blitz” schemes that have blitzed on approximately 70% of plays the past few seasons.


Mason’s blitzing might be extra risky with a secondary that has been exploited routinely in recent years and ranked a poor 110th in pass defense a year ago. Getting back 2014 All-CUSA SS Devin Cockrell, who missed last season with injury, adds a potential anchor to the defensive backfield. There is plenty of experience surrounding Cockrell, most of it from being thrown into the fire due to injuries a year ago. The other projected first-stringers in the secondary have 19 starts between them.


Though eight players return to the "D" with starting experience, Mason was doing plenty of juggling in the spring with position changes designed to better fit the new 3-4 looks. Former DTs Brian Madunezim and Mike Sota have both been moved to DE to flank NG Gino Breselin, who will be a third-year starter in the fall. Some of the DEs from 2015 have been switched to OLB spots in the new scheme. Last year’s leading tackler Alvin Jones anchors the LB group from his position on the inside.


A year ago, the Miners were not helped by playing just five games in the Sun Bowl, but this season will have the benefit of seven home games, with winnable non-conference dates vs. nearby NMSU and Army sandwiched around a trip to Texas, and FCS Houston Baptist perhaps providing a W that will be valuable for bowl candidacy. If UTEP can avoid last year’s rash of injuries and new o.c. Pease steers some consistency out of his available QBs, a return to the postseason mix is not out of the question.


Spread-wise, Kugler has made a nice fortress out of the Sun Bowl, where the Miners are 7-2-1 vs. the line the past two years. UTEP also covered 5 of its last 6 a year ago after the bottom seemed to drop out of the season following embarrassing back-to-back losses to UTSA and FIU, suggesting some real resilience within the Miner ranks.


No one in Denton would complain if they could simply walk everything back and forget last season at North Texas (2015 SUR 1-11, PSR 4-8, O/U 5-7), where the campaign became a train wreck by Columbus Day and prompted the in-season dismissal of sour HC Dan McCarney. The Mean Green team could not have pretended any better to be sabotaging its much-disliked coach when refusing to compete in the homecoming game vs. Big Sky Portland State, which roared to a 45-0 halftime lead and stretched the margin to 66-0 before UNT averted a shutout in the final two minutes. The decision to can McCarney was probably reached by halftime but administrators would wait until the game concluded before un-apologetically hitting the eject button on their head coach.


The Mean Green could have been excused for humming the “Wicked Witch is Dead” tune from the Wizard of Oz in the wake of McCarney’s ouster, and did become more competitive thereafter under o.c. and interim HC Mike Canales, who had pulled similar duty a few years before when McCarney predecessor Todd Dodge was also a midseason casualty. UNT actually covered the spread in four of its last seven games and would notch its lone straight-up W of the season when topping UTSA at futuristic Apogee Stadium, 30-23. Though Canales, who deserved an award for keeping the UNT ship afloat as he did following Dodge’s dismissal five years earlier, was not retained and has landed on the staff of Matt Wells at Utah State.


Still, a thorough housecleaning was in order just two years after UNT would record a 9-4 SU mark and win the Dallas Bowl over UNLV. Stepping into the breach is the well-regarded Seth Littrell, most recently o.c. for Larry Fedora at North Carolina and the Tar Heels, who would rank in the top ten nationally in scoring last season. Though some wondered why the 37-year-old Littrell would take the Mean Green job, others have correctly pointed out that UNT, due to its resources and location at the north end of the talent-rich DFW Metroplex, is in fact an ideal stepping-stone position, and that it should not take long for the right coach to win at Denton in C-USA.


Whether that happens this season is open to conjecture, however, as the Littrell spread would appear a poor fit for the inherited talent recruited to run a pro-style offense during the McCarney years. But the Mean Green plans to wing it for Littrell and his o.c. Graham Harrell, another Air Raid disciple dating from his days as a QB for Mike Leach at Texas Tech and most recently on the Leach staffs at Washington State.


The first dilemma for Littrell and Harrell is to find a QB to run the Air Raid. At the outset, look for Alabama grad transfer Alec Morris, who couldn’t advance beyond third string at Tuscaloosa the past couple of years, to take the snaps. Morris does not have many established targets on hand; jr. Turner Smiley is the only returning wideout who caught more than 15 passes a year ago (Smiley caught all of 25). But, the McCarney offense wasn’t exactly designed to pile up the aerial stats, ranking 126th in passing efficiency a year ago. C-USA sources suggest that some of the untested wideouts from last season, such as potential big-play threat soph Tee Goree, might emerge as surprising weapons.


Littrell does inherit a quality RB, jr. Jeffrey Wilson, who gained 830 YR a year ago as well as a decent receiver out of the backfield, and also perhaps the bridge between the past UNT offense and the new one. Scatback Willy Ivery gained 6.6 ypc a year ago and provides a nice change-of-pace. A combination of transfers and young charges hope to form a cohesive OL around a couple of returning starters, including C Kaydon Kirby, who missed spring after the passing of his father but is expected back in the fall.


Unfortunately for Littrell, the stop unit he inherits in Denton was even worse a year ago than the offense, allowing a whopping 41.3 ppg and ranking in triple digits in every meaningful defensive category. New d.c. Mike Ekeler, used to working with more talent after career stops at Georgia, Nebraska, USC, and LSU, has reckoned (correctly, it would seem) that there is not enough DL manpower on hand to effectively run the Mean Green’s old 4-3. Thus, springtime was spent installing the new-look 3-4 with lots of nickel packages that appears a better fit with an overflow of secondary components on hand. Four starters return in the defensive backfield, and safeties James Gray and Kishawn McClain were UNT’s leading tacklers a year ago.


Gray and McClain, however, were required to make over 100 tackles each a year ago, suggesting bigger problems up front, especially a rush defense that was one of the worst in the country when allowing a whopping 240 ypg. The new-look “D” will feature hybrid positions at DE/LB and LB/nickel back. Jucos Josh Wheeler and Eji Ejiya and even true frosh William Johnson are expect to make major contributions in those roles and provide support around sr. LB Fred Scott, one of six returning starters on the platoon.


The Mean Green enters 2016 flying well under the radar, but aside from a mid-September trip to Florida does not look to be that overmatched in the rest of its non-league slate. Of course, how quickly the new Littrell offense begins to click, or resemble clicking, and how much improvement the new schemes provide on defense will determine whatever level of upgrade UNT achieves from a year ago. After losing 66-7 to Portland State last October, it would be hard drop much lower.


Spread-wise, the Mean Green would lose 13 of its last 17 on the board under McCarney before making the aforementioned mild recovery down the stretch a year ago under Canales. Still, UNT was only 8-16 vs. the number the past two seasons, including 5-13 its last 18 as a dog. As mentioned before, there’s nowhere to go but up for Littrell and the rest of his new staff in Denton.


They like their football in the state of Texas, even at a relatively-new gridiron outpost such as UTSA (2015 SUR 3-9, PSR 5-7, O/U 7-5). Much like their counterparts elsewhere in the Lone Star State, the Roadrunner backers also want to win now, and the thank you they gave program architect HC Larry Coker for getting UTSA football off the ground after a 2011 debut was forcing him out after two consecutive disappointing seasons.


In retrospect, Coker devoted much energy to getting the program competitive ASAP, and his collection of transfers and jucos would get the Roadrunners up to speed by year three, when they would fashion a 7-5 SU mark and a 5-3 record in their first year of C-USA competition. Unfortunately, much of the core of the team would graduate after 2013, and the next wave of replenishments had to hit the ground running in 2014 & ‘15. On occasion, the Roadrunners would compete, but after getting the locals excited in 2013, the recent dropoff proved a letdown.


Tasked with helping the program reach the next level is new HC Frank Wilson, hired away from LSU, where he served as the RB coach for Les Miles. Wilson, rumored for several jobs the past couple of years, has a reputation as a top-flight recruiter, but has never been a head coach in his career. Thus, we are a bit reluctant to forecast a big upgrade for the Roadrunners, remembering how another recent LSU RB coach, Larry Porter, with credentials much the same as Wilson’s, would fail miserably in a disastrous 2-year head coaching stint at Memphis.


Wilson’s first task is to pump some life into a listless offense that would rank 104th in scoring (just 22.6 ppg) a year ago. Fortunately for Wilson, grad transfer QB Jared Johnson arrives from Stephen F Austin after earning Southland Conference Offensive MVP honors a year ago. While with the Bearkats, Johnson passed for 5352 yards and ran for another 1601, and allows Wilson and his new o.c. Frank Scelfo to utilize some read-option packages if they so desire. Of course, jr. Dalton Sturm is still in the mix after taking the majority of the snaps last season and passing for 1354 yards and 13 TDs. Wilson thus has what seems are two decent options to run the offense.


There are also supporting weapons in place, including sr. RB Jarveon Williams, who banged his way to 1042 YR last fall despite fighting thru injuries that would cause him to miss the finale vs. MTSU. With Williams doing the heavy-duty work, UTSA would run the ball over 50% of the time a year ago, and Wilson’s roots at run-happy LSU suggest the infantry will also be featured this fall at the Alamodome. Last year’s leading receiver, wideout Kerry Thomas, Jr., returns after catching 52 passes, though replacing key TE David Morgan (NFL Vikings sixth-round pick) might not be easy.


Three starters are back along an OL that did a decent job opening holes for Williams and other RBs but needs to shore up its pass blocking after allowing 44 sacks a year ago. Wilson will also need better production from PK Daniel Portillo, who was just 1-for-7 on FG tries beyond 40 yards and missed 5 PATs last season.


Wilson and new d.c. Pete Golding plan to temporarily keep the stop unit’s existing 4-2-5 looks, utilized in the Coker regime, for at least one more season as it still appears the best fit for the personnel on hand. The strength on the stop side figures to be the DL which returns three of four starters from a platoon that held its own vs. the run but was often torched thru the air a year ago. Watch the progress of 6'6 DE Marcus Davenport, who has All-CUSA potential if he can add a bit more weight and strength to his frame.


There are concerns, however, across the back seven, where playmakers need to emerge at the LB spots, and where newcomers will be starting on both corners. There is some experience in the secondary, however, where safeties Michael Egwuaga and Nate Gaines combined for six picks a year ago, and where a starter at a safety spot in 2014, Chase Dahlquist, returns to active duty after missing all of 2015 due to injury. Still, upgrades are required for what was the lowest-ranked C-USA pass defense and the 117th nationally vs. the pass a year ago.


Aside from the opener vs. Alabama State, the Roadrunners are going to be significant underdogs in their other non-league games at Colorado State, home vs. Arizona State, and at Texas A&M. Yet there are what appears to be some winnable dates in C-USA. Still, Wilson’s credentials as a head coach are unknown, and he must sort out the QB situation while hoping to forge some upgrades on defense for the ‘runners to improve upon last year’s 3 wins. That might be a challenge.


Spread-wise, Coker’s teams were underperforming on the road the past two seasons, covering just 3 of 11 chances away from the Alamodome, and were just 7-15 vs. the number their last 22 on board. Those numbers do not present much of a bar for Wilson’s first edition to clear.

 

[CNOTES]

C-USA Outlook - East
August 10, 2016


Conference USA - East Division Preview


After previewing the West half of Conference USA in our previous installment, we focus on the East half of the loop, Once again, teams are presented in order of predicted finish, with 2015 SU, pointspread, and O/U records included...


Where has the time gone? It doesn’t seem so long ago that we knew of Rick Stockstill as the QB of the first powerhouse Bobby Bowden teams at Florida State. That, however, is now close to 40 years in the rear-view mirror. It also doesn’t seem as if Stockstill has been the HC for the past ten years at Middle Tennessee (2015 SUR 7-6, PSR 8-5, O/U 5-8), which in that span has made the move from the Sun Belt to C-USA and become bowl-eligible (though not necessarily bowl-selected) in six of the past seven seasons.


As for Stockstill, he seems content in Murfreesboro after a few dalliances with other jobs, including East Carolina a few years ago. It makes sense; the Blue Raider program has been on the move, and seems poised to make another move up the ladder, perhaps to the American should expansion elsewhere heist a few schools from that league. As Stockstill has stayed at MTSU, Murfreesboro has also grown along with the Blue Raider program, with the area now considered on the periphery of Nashville metro. Less than an hour from a major airport in Music City, MTSU is also conveniently located, with the ability to draw recruits from the region. The Blue Raider gig is now a pretty good one, which Stockstill seems to realize.


Maintaining recent momentum looks a good possibility because of another Stockstill, Rick’s son Brent, now a soph QB who came within 52 yards of Jameis Winston’s NCAA frosh record for passing yardage a year ago, when Brent recorded a whopping 4005 YP and the Blue Raiders fielded their most prolific offense in school history. After scoring 34 ppg, MTSU does not figure to take a step back with new/old o.c. Tony Franklin, a Hal Mumme and Mike Leach disciple who is well-versed in all aspects of the spread offense and is now on a second tour of duty in Murfreesboro after recent stints at La Tech and Cal.


Franklin’s go-go offense works best with a deep rotation of wideouts in 4-WR looks. Soph Richie James, who caught a staggering 108 passes last season, and freakish athlete 6'5 Terry Pettis, who gained over 21 yards per catch a year ago, will again be featured targets. Shane Tucker, who gained 413 YR out of a slotback position in last year’s offense, was moved to wideout in spring to give Stockstill more targets. Meanwhile, Ole Miss transfer I’Tavius Mathers returns to his hometown as the featured RB after gaining 1061 YR over three seasons in the SEC and starring in the MTSU spring game. The left side of the OL is looking for a couple of new starters, but there was good depth on the forward wall a year ago that should come in handy this fall.


The Blue Raider “D” has been representative for the past few years under d.c. Tyrone Nix’s schemes, though six new starters will need to step into the breach this fall. Big holes remain at the LB and safety spots after five of the top six tacklers graduated following last season.


On the plus side, the DL is loaded with experience, with three starters returning up front on an all-senior line featuring bookends Chris Hale and ex-Marine Steven Rhodes. Starters also return at both CB spots, where Mike Minter and ballhawk deluxe Jeremy Cutrer form one of the best coverage duos in C-USA. Though an all-new starting crew of LBs is slated, physical jr. Myles Harges likely would have been in the lineup last fall if not for injury. Soph OLB Chris Melton also might have provided a glimpse of things to come when impressing with six tackles in the Bahamas Bowl vs. Western Michigan.


The schedule is a bit of a concern because there are only five home games at Jonny Floyd Stadium, important because the Blue Raiders are 15-3 SU at Murfreesboro since 2013 and 6-14 SU away from home. A tough three-game stretch in September at Vanderbilt, Bowling Green, and home vs. West contender La Tech will likely set the tone for the rest of the season.


Spread-wise, note the streaky nature of Stockstill’s recent editions, which have three times in the past two years rolled off spread win streaks of three games or more, while also having a pair of 4-game spread losing streaks. Interestingly, MTSU covered all four of its chances as a double-digit favorite last season.


What a nice fit it has turned out to be in Huntington between HC Doc Holliday and Marshall (2015 SUR 10-3, PSR 8-5, O/U 4-9), which has returned to gridiron relevance though the Doc years. Though there was a time when Holliday (50-28 SU in six seasons on the job) seemed on shaky ground a few years ago, three straight campaigns of double-digit wins and bowl wins suggest that Doc could probably take this job into retirement if he so desires.


The Herd’s track record warrants its inclusion among the top contenders in C-USA, though this might be a season where Holliday struggles to get to that 10-win plateau, considering the extreme rebuild necessary on the defensive side, where only four starters return from an accomplished platoon that ranked 10th (17.8 ppg) in scoring defense, an almost unheard-of accomplishment for a C-USA entry. With so much youth on this year’s roster, however, the work is going to be cut out for Holliday.


At least the offense should continue to roll after scoring 31 ppg when breaking in a hardscrabble frosh QB, Chase Litton, last season. The rough-hewn Litton would eventually pass for 2605 yards and 23 TDs after taking over control of the offense in the third game of 2015 vs. Norfolk State. A year ago, however, Litton was surrounded with a group of experienced skill guys on the strike force, but graduation has altered that scenario, especially after top two receiving targets Davonte Allen and Deandre Reaves graduated, taking 114 catches and 9 TDs with them from a year ago. Expected to assume more of a receiving burden is jr. Deon-Tay McManus, who caught 35 passes a year ago, and Plaxico Burress-sized soph Michael Clark, a 6'7 deep threat.


The Herd usually has no shortage of runners, and even after the departure of the thundering Devon Johnson (now in the NFL Carolina Panthers’ camp), shifty Hyleck Foster (450 YR) has shown enough pop in the past to suggest he can handle feature-back duties. Punishing soph Keion Davis (331 YR LY) offers a nice change-of-pace and a pile-driving style. Four starters also return along the OL. Moreover, Marshall was also tops nationally in special teams efficiency a year ago. So, we don’t think the problem for the Herd will be scoring points this fall.


There might be issues, however, on a mostly-rebuilt “D” that will test vet coordinator Chuck Heater, once upon a time a tough RB for some of Bo Schembechler’s early Michigan teams. Of particular concern are the new CBs, a position with little experience on the roster and a concern for Heater, whose system requires the corners to win one-on-one battles with wideouts while the front seven utilizes various Heater-designed blitz packages. Heater also has to replace C-USA Defensive MVP LB Evan McKelvey.


In the secondary, Heater does have some experience at the safety spots, where returning starter Tiquan Lang and Virginia Tech transfer C.J. Reavis will roam. Soph DE Ryan Bee proved a pass rush force last fall for a “D” that was adept at forcing TOs and various three-and-outs from opponents. But that was with a far more-experienced stop unit a year ago.


We’ll find out early how far along Holliday’s seventh Herd version might be with a tough September meatgrinder (Akron, Louisville, and at Pitt) after an expected fun time in the opener vs. the pride of Baltimore, the Morgan State Bears. Top East contenders MTSU and WKU also visit Edwards Stadium in November. Another bowl bid is considered a minimum expectation, and a run at the East crown could materialize if the defense coagulates sooner rather than later.


Spread-wise, Doc has had the Herd rolling the past three seasons, with an overall 25-15-1 mark vs. the number since 2013. Herd is also 13-5-1 vs. the number at Huntington since 2013, though 6-0 of that mark is credited to the 2013 team.


It’s been a fun two years for Western Kentucky (2015 SUR 12-2, PSR 8-4-1, O/U 9-4), which has piled up 20 wins (including a couple of bowl successes) in the two seasons on HC Jeff Brohm’s watch while QB Brandon Doughty set all sorts of team records. These developments have proven quite satisfying in the land of mutton BBQ, especially after Bobby Petrino bailed on the program for Louisville after just one season in 2013.


Fortunately, the Tops have continued to progress under Brohm, who has been on the radar of some “Big 5" conference schools and might not be long for WKU if the team continues to succeed and entertain as it has done the past two seasons. To do so this fall, however, might not be so easy, with questions now at the QB spot and significant rebuilding required on the defensive side.


The Tops boasted of a top ten offense a year ago, scoring a staggering 44.3 ppg, but Doughty moved to the NFL and the Miami Dolphins in last April’s draft, and no successor clearly emerged in spring. Thus, the QB battle continues into fall camp with Doughty’s backup, Nelson Fishback, and South Florida transfer Mike White running neck-and-neck. Neither, however, is reminding anyone in Bowling Green of Doughty. Still, whichever QB emerges will have some established weapons at his disposal, including last year’s top two RBs, sr. Anthony Wales and soph D’Andre Ferby, who combined for over 1700 YR and 20 TDs in 2015. The top eight offensive linemen all return from last year as well.


Still, concerns abound with the passing game, even beyond whichever QB eventually wins the job. Keep in mind that Brohm lost two of his top outside receiving threats (Jared Dangerfield and Antwane Grant) to graduation, plus key TE and NFL Rams draftee Tyler Higbee, but sr. WR Taywan Taylor returns after recording 86 catches a year ago.,..while starting only 5 games! After toying with the idea of entering the NFL Draft, Taylor returns for one more year at Bowling Green, yet depth of the receiving corps remains an issue. Speaking of concerns, there are some with the kicking game as well following the graduation of PK Garrett Schwettman, the school’s all-time leading scorer.


The Tops’ defense improved a year ago from one of the nation’s worst in 2014 to a capable platoon that ranked in the middle of most national stat categories, not bad considering the accelerated pace of LY’s WKU games due to the offensive potency. Coordinator Nick Holt, however, must break in seven new starters on the stop unit, though several rotation pieces from last season will now get more-featured roles. A transfer from Louisville, DE Nick Dawson-Brents, should slide into the starting lineup, while another Louisville transfer, sr. Keith Brown, will likely start at an ILB spot. Consider Dawson-Brents and Brown the last gifts to WKU from Petrino.


Aside from a trip to Tuscaloosa to face Alabama on Sept. 10, WKU should be favored in its other non-conference games, including hosting SEC Vanderbilt on September 17. The C-USA schedule is a bit tricky with road trips to top contenders La Tech, MTSU, and Marshall. Getting the required six wins for bowl consideration should not be too much trouble, but we are reluctant to forecast anything like last year’s 12-2 mark, considering the questions at QB and the significant rebuild needed on defense.


Spread-wise, Brohm enters this season on a 10-5-1 uptick, but that damage was all done with Doughty in the fold. The Tops have also been making quite a fortress out of L.T. Smith Stadium, covering 7 of their last 8 as host.


Considering the quick re-start of the program a few years ago at Old Dominion (2015 SUR 5-7, PSR 3-9, O/U 7-5), the Monarchs have come a long way, falling just one win short in their first season of bowl eligibility last fall. After spending two seasons as an FCS Independent, two more years in the CAA, one as an FBS indie, and now two years in C-USA, it amazes that ODU has a 57-27 SU record that span under clever HC Bobby Wilder. Moreover, a new 30,000-seat stadium is in the works to replace old Foreman Field, once the home of annual “Oyster Bowl” games in steamy Norfolk. That’s a lot of accomplishment in a short period of time.


Last year’s 5-7 was far from Wilder’s best mark, but it impressed nonetheless considering it came after the graduation of do-everything QB Taylor Heinecke (who moved to the NFL Vikings), and a spate of injuries, including at the QB spot post-Heinecke.


Now, Wilder is establishing the necessary depth in the program to sustain it at the higher level, no longer fearful of redshirting incoming frosh, and no longer one of the nation’s youngest teams, as the Monarchs were a year ago. Whether that is enough to get ODU to its first bowl game this fall remains to be seen, but Wilder absolutely appears to know what he is doing, and it seems unlikely he meets the same fate anytime soon as another recent college “expansion” coach, UTSA’s Larry Coker.


Some answers at the QB position would be welcomed this fall, though even when soph Shuler Bentley was able to take most of the snaps in spring because sr. David Washington was recovering from ACL surgery, he didn’t lay claim to the job. Providing his knee is properly heeled, most C-USA observers believe the ex-WR Washington, who passed for 1155 yards in a handful of starts last year, is behind center for the September 3 opener vs. Hampton.


If the QB situation can sort itself, the Monarchs might have a chance, because nine starters are back on the attack end, with receivers who caught 211 of the 235 pass completions from a year ago, including top target sr. Zach Pascal (68 receptions in 2015). Expect the TEs to become more involved in the aerial show after dealing with injuries last season. Indeed, the TEs loom more important this season due to relative youth along the OL, where a pair of redshirt frosh are likely to be the starting tackles. ODU also has a effective change-of-pace RB combo in slasher Ray Lawry (1136 YR and 5.9 ypc LY) and banger Jeremy Cox (369 YR & 5.1 ypc in 2015).


As expected, the Monarchs were still down the charts in defensive stats a year ago, but improving depth should help upgrade those numbers in the fall. There are 13 players on the roster who have seen time on the defensive line, including rugged sr. NT Rashaad Coward. Senior T.J. Ricks was C-USA’s leading tackler from last season, but was moved in spring from an inside to an outside LB spot to take advantage of his size and quickness. Three starters also return in the secondary, including both corners, Brandon Addison and Aaron Young.


Outside of a trip to NC State, ODU has a favorable non-league slate, and several winnable games in Norfolk suggest that Wilder's troops could get to the magic six wins for bowl eligibility.


Spread-wise, the Monarchs dropped their first eight vs. the number last season, lowering their 16-game spread mark, dating to early 2014, to 2-14, before covering three of their last four games last fall. After dropping their first seven spread decisions as a favorite, ODU finally covered as chalk last November 14 at home vs. UTEP.


There were times last season when Florida Atlantic (2015 SUR 3-9, PSR 5-7, O/U 4-8) looked like a formidable team, such as when physically manhandling nearby FIU at Boca Raton. Too often, however, the Owls found ways to lose games, dropping four games by 7 points or fewer, therein costing a chance at bowl eligibility.


That sort of pattern, however, has become familiar for FAU, which has not been able to gain much traction since the end of the Howard Schnellenberger era, which in retrospect lasted a couple of years too long. Desirous of allowing program architect Schnellenberger to coach at least one season in the new Boca Raton stadium when it opened in 2011, the program deteriorated without an heir apparent on staff. When successor Carl Pelini was dismissed midway in the 2013 campaign, the Owls were forced to start from scratch again and lured Charlie Partridge off of Bret Bielema’s Arkansas staff for the 2014 season. A pair of 3-9 records later, FAU continues to spin its wheels.


Thus, Partridge is authorizing major changes for 2016, beginning with a new-look offense that is embracing all of the tenets of video football. It’s no-huddle, uptempo all the way under new o.c. Travis Trickett, most recently at Stanford and the son of Florida State OL coach Rick Trickett. All quite a departure from the jerry-rigged offense of the past few seasons and one that ended 105th in scoring (22.5 ppg) a year ago with ultra-physical QB Jaquez Johnson, who even wore a running back’s number (32) as he would try to run over defenders. Soph Jason Driskel, brother of the former Florida and La Tech QB Jeff, effectively split snaps with Johnson last fall, or RS frosh Daniel Parr, who rejected nearby Miami to sign instead with the Owls, will take their battle from spring into fall camp to determine which will start. Several C-USA observers would not be surprised if Partridge opts to use both early in the season.


Some experienced weapons remain in the mix, as jr. Buddy Howell and sr. Jay Warren have combined to rush for 1871 yards the past two seasons. Though they might have to sacrifice carries to true frosh Devin Singletary, a nearby Deerfield Beach product who spurned offers from the Big Ten to stay close to home. Partridge and Trickett moved 6'6 Nate Terry from TE to the slot in the spring, which also opens up the TE spot for Wake Forest transfer Tyler Cameron, who played some QB for the Deacs but will be utilized as a TE for FAU.


There is also hope that the Owls won’t have to utilize P Dalton Schomp as much as a year ago, but if they do, his 48.0 average was best in the nation and usually gave the Owls a field-position edge last fall.


Despite using ten true frosh on “D” and special teams last season, the stop unit was far from the worst in C-USA and returns some playmakers, including NFL prospect DE Trey Hendrickson, whose 13.5 sacks last season tied for second best in the nation. But with newcomers manning the DT spots, Hendrickson might be dealing with extra attention from opposing blockers in the fall. There is great anticipation that touted frosh DT Kevin McCrary, from up the coast at Daytona Beach, will make an immediate impact. Nickel back Ocie Rose was the big-play star for d.c. Roc Bellationi’s platoon last season, scoring three TDs--only two off of the team lead!


Road games in the first month down I-95 at Sun Life Stadium vs. Miami and at Kansas State appear to be difficult non-league hurdles, but the locals will be disappointed if the Owls can’t beat Southern Illinois and Ball State in Boca Raton. If the new offense clicks, FAU should have a shot at its first bowl since the Schenellenberger era of 2008, though we do not like the recurring pattern of the Owls finding ways to lose close games...a partial indictment, at least to date, of Partridge.


Spread-wise, the glow of the Pelini years, when the Owls were a combined 17-7 vs. the number in 2012-13, has worn off under Partridge, whose teams are 11-13 vs. the line. FAU has maintained its recent underdog prowess, however, standing 9-5 in that role for Partridge after a 14-4 dog mark the previous two seasons combined.


They still haven’t recovered at Florida International (2015 SUR 3-9, PSR 6-5, O/U 7-5) from the ill-advised move three years by AD Pete Garcia (who has another fancy title...but we’ll just call him the AD), when he fired up-and-comer HC Mario Cristobal, a Miami-area native who had taken FIU to bowls in 2010 & ‘11, and replaced him with journeyman HC Ron Turner, who has had more jobs over the years than Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort.


Nick Saban, who knows a bit more about football than Garcia, would immediately hire Cristobal for his staff at Alabama, while Turner, to no one’s surprise, has struggled with the Golden Panthers, winning just 10 games in three seasons. Noting what happened with Cristobal after the 2012 season, some wise guys in South Beach have suggested that the likely way for Garcia to fire Turner would be for FIU to make a bowl game this season, but we digress.


Turner, whose career HC record is now 52-87 and a generation removed from when he was considered a hot up-and-comer at San Jose State in 1991, is feeling some heat after seeing his team collapse in the final two games of last season. Collapse might be an understatement, as the Golden Panthers were outscored a combined 115-7 by Marshall and WKU, and the game vs. the Tops was even called off early due to weather conditions. All of that after the FIU had clawed to 5-5 and within reach of a bowl bid. That postseason spot might be a prerequisite for Turner to keep his job into 2017...though with AD Garcia, we never know.


There are nine starters back on the offensive end, where Turner needs to develop some consistency or else risk a fourth straight losing season. Junior QB Alex McGough passed for 2722 yards and 21 TDs last season, and will be a three-year starter in the fall, but needs to take the next step as a leader and find ways to win close games. On the plus side, there are nine returning starters on offense, and established playmakers are at the skill positions. Including slashing RB Alex Gardner, who would gain 1200 yards from scrimmage a year ago as he also caught 68 passes. Top receivers wideout Thomas Owens (51 catches LY) and TE Jonnu Smith (36 catches) are also still in the fold. The veteran OL returns all five starters and many of its reserves after an injury-plagued 2015, but even considering the Turner offense is aerial-based, the forward wall needs to do a better job of run blocking as FIU finished 122nd nationally in rushing.


Lack of big plays also haunted the strike force last season, when no run play would gain more than 36 yards, and top receivers like Owens were gaining only 12 yards per catch.


FIU’s defensive numbers were all middle-of-the-road last season though were probably distorted by facing the sluggish attacks of UCF, NC Central, and UTEP. More illuminating might be the fact that six foes gained 450 yards or more. In May, Turner was also forced to juggle his staff after d.c Matt House took a job on Mark Stoops’s staff at Kentucky. Ron Cooper, once upon a time the HC at Louisville, was promoted from DB coach to House’s old coordinator position.


Only four starters return on the stop unit, and just one of those (sr. DT Imarjaye Albury) up front. Cooper will thus need newcomers to generate a pass rush. The return of sr. Davison Colimon, a 2014 starter who tore a pectoral muscle in the opener vs. UCF and missed the rest of last season, should bolster the LB corps. Alongside leading returning tackler Anthony Vint (98 tackles LY), the LB corps might be the strength of the defense. There is some experience in the defensive backfield, with jr. S Niko Gonzalez and CB Deonte Wilson, who started four games at S last season, but they need to generate more plays as Gonzalez was the only member of the returning secondary who had a pick last season (he had two).


FIU has an interesting early schedule with Big Ten Indiana and Maryland both lured to Miami for non-conference dates. The slate picks up again later in the season with a 4-game stretch vs. top C-USA contenders La Tech, MTSU, WKU, and Marshall. It will be hard to consider much progress being made in the program if Turner can’t win at least one of those games. Thus, some C-USA sources believe Turner’s eventual fate is determined by that 4-game stretch.


Spread-wise, Turner had forged a recovery that began late in 2013 and extended into last November, covering 15 in a 21-game run before failing to cover the last three on the board (and it would have been four Ls in a row had the WKU debacle not been called early due to weather). A four-game cover streak vs. nearby FAU was also ended unceremoniously in Boca Raton last Halloween.


And then there was Charlotte (2015 SUR 2-10, PSR 4-7, O/U 5-6), the latest FBS “expansion team” that enters its fourth year of competition this fall. The 49ers got their fans all jumpy last September when winning their first two games out of the chute as a real FBS entry, but reality soon set in and the enormity of the task at hand for HC Brad Lambert was confirmed by ten straight losses. While Charlotte has some capable frontline players, the depth is not yet up to FBS level, even those of C-USA, though no one in the region was expecting the 49ers to win the league in their first try.


They probably won’t win in their second trip around the track, either, but Charlotte might look a bit more like a real team as the 49ers get closer to full capacity and real FBS-level players enter the program. Including the new QB, Kevin Olsen, who began his career at Miami-Fla. but most recently was winging the ball for Riverside JC in California. He’s also the brother of NFL Panthers TE Greg Olsen, so Kevin at least has someone local to show him around town. Other transfer QBs include ex-East Carolina Cody Keith and ex-NC A&T Hasan Klugh, indicating the talent upgrades infusing the nascent 49er program.


With all of these new arms on campus, Lambert has switched last year’s QB, sr. Matt Johnson, to a RB spot, where he likely spots slashing sr. Kalif Phillips, a legit FBS runner who gained 961 YR a year ago despite missing most of the final three games with an injured knee. There are also some established targets for Olsen, as sr. WRs Trent Bostick & Austin Duke and jr. T.I. Ford combined for 1253 yards worth of receptions last fall. Four starters also return on the OL, including All-CUSA frosh G Nate Davis. Depth still needs upgrading along the forward wall, but it’s safe to say this apparently upgraded “O” can exceed last year’s 17.5 ppg, which ranked 119th nationally.


Charlotte’s defense allowed 36 ppg in 2015 but it nonetheless improved markedly a year ago under d.c Matt Wallerstedt, a teammate of Lambert’s in college at Kansas State and having also coordinated at Texas Tech and Air Force. The 49ers cut 58 ypg (down to 419) from 2014 despite playing a much upgraded slate a year ago. Wallerstedt’s 3-4 was stunting and blitzing consistently last season and made enough plays to prevent a few games from becoming runaways the other way.


Eight starters return on defense, led by sr. NG Larry Ogunjobi, who effectively clogs the middle and tied for second in C-USA tackles for loss with 14.5. Seniors man both CB spots, including Terrance Winchester, who recorded four picks last season and scored Charlotte’s first-ever FBS TD when he brought back a fumble to the house in the opening 23-20 win at Georgia State.


No one is expecting much this season from the 49ers, and the support base would probably be content to merely see improvement, fewer lopsided losses, and maybe an extra couple of wins. In another year or two, Lambert is going to need to do a bit better, but for the time being, Charlotte fans will be satisfied with a competitive product that continues to make progress.

 

[CNOTES]

2016 Northeast Conference Preview
August 15, 2016


(STATS) - Championship Saturday 2015. It still lives in the thoughts of the Saint Francis football coaches and players.


They played for the Northeast Conference championship at Duquesne on the final day of the regular season last November.


Boasting a winning record for the first time since 1992, they surely started getting ahead of themselves when they built a 14-0 lead through one quarter.


It was all Duquesne from there, with SFU suffering a 30-20 loss that still stings today.


"It's still in my heart. I can't get rid of that feeling," All-America safety and kick returner Lorenzo Jerome said.


"With the success that came," coach Chris Villarial said, "that's a hard pill to swallow."


The NEC figures to be competitive again, with 2013 and '14 champ Sacred Heart expected to get back into the championship mix. Duquesne is the preseason favorite.


Saint Francis isn't quite the upstart anymore. With an experienced team returning from the breakthrough season - and heartache - Jerome points out, "We know how to win this year."


Duquesne is equally as experienced, though, and committed to playing physical defense. The Dukes nearly upset CAA Football power William & Mary in their first-ever FCS playoff game, falling 52-49 on the road.


This year's goal, star quarterback Dillon Buechel said, "Just take it to the next level. Get back to that point and try to do some damage in the playoffs this year. â?¦ Guys on this team love to compete."


Following is a team-by-team breakdown of the 2016 Northeast Conference race and STATS' predicted order of finish:


1. Duquesne


2. Sacred Heart


3. Saint Francis


4. Bryant


5. Robert Morris


6. Central Connecticut State


7. Wagner


---=

TEAM CAPSULES=


1. DUQUESNE DUKES=


LOCATION: Pittsburgh


STADIUM: Arthur J. Rooney Athletic Field


COACH: Jerry Schmitt (68-51 in 11 seasons at Duquesne; 93-69 overall)


LAST SEASON: 8-4 overall, 5-1 NEC (1st)


STARTERS RETURNING: 13 (7 offense/6 defense)


THREE KEY LOSSES: Rafiq Douglas, RB; Chris King, WR; Dan Buchholz, OL


ONE TO WATCH ON OFFENSE: Dillon Buechel, QB, Sr. (228-for-401, 2,871 yards, 24 TDs, 8 INTs)


ONE TO WATCH ON DEFENSE: Christian Kuntz, LB, Sr. (72 TT, 26 TFL, 11 sacks, 4 INTs, 6 PBU, 6 QBH, 1 FR, 2 FF)


OTHER KEY PLAYERS: P.J. Fulmore, RB, So.; Wayne Capers, WR, Sr.; Reggie McKnight, WR, Sr.; Nehari Crawford, WR/KR, So.; Dave Thomas, WR, Sr.; Larson Graham, OL, Sr.; Ben Huss, OL, JR.; Jake Radziukinas, DL, Sr.; Nathan Stone, LB, Jr.; Gary Wooten, LB, Sr. (Penn State transfer); Abner Roberts, DB, Jr.; Malik Shegog, DB, Jr.; Austin Crimmins, PK/P, Sr.


OUTLOOK: The defending NEC champion Dukes' talent level remains high despite the unexpected loss of star running back Douglas, who nearly rushed for 1,000 yards as a sophomore. The strong-armed Buechel, who threw for 423 yards and six touchdowns against William & Mary in the Dukes' first-ever FCS playoff game, is a fourth-year starter who was named the NEC's preseason quarterback. He gets back Capers (51 receptions, nine TDs) and developing sophomore Crawford to keep the offense moving the ball. The Dukes are replacing three starters on the offensive line in addition to dropping in the new starting running back, Fulmore. The defense helped force 26 turnovers (which led to a plus-13 turnover margin) and seeks to remain opportunistic. It has an exceptional linebackers corps led by Kuntz, the 2015 NEC defensive player of the year. A bull's-eye is squarely on the Dukes' backs.


SCHEDULE:


Sept. 1, at Youngstown State


Sept. 10, Bucknell


Sept. 17, Dayton


Sept. 24, Kennesaw State


Oct. 1, at Jacksonville


Oct. 15, Robert Morris*


Oct. 22, at Saint Francis*


Oct. 29, Bryant*


Nov. 5, at Wagner*


Nov. 12, Sacred Heat*


Nov. 19, at Central Connecticut State*


* - NEC game


---=


2. SACRED HEART PIONEERS=


LOCATION: Fairfield, Connecticut


STADIUM: Campus Field


COACH: Mark Nofri (27-20 in four seasons at Sacred Heart)


LAST SEASON: 6-5 overall, 3-3 NEC (Tie/3rd)


STARTERS RETURNING: 13 (7 offense/6 defense)


THREE KEY LOSSES: Tyler Dube, WR; Connor Caveney, DL; Kellen Sperduto, LB


ONE TO WATCH ON OFFENSE: RJ Noel, QB, R-Sr. (182-for-325, 2,431 yards, 19 TDs, 9 INTs; 130 carries, 247 yards, 6 TDs)


ONE TO WATCH ON DEFENSE: James Rentz, LB, Sr. (54 TT, 13 TFL, 8.5 sacks, 1 INT, 2 QBH, 1 FR, 2 FF)


OTHER KEY PLAYERS: Ose Imeokparia, RB, Sr.; Nate Chavious, RB/KR, Sr.; Moses Webb, WR/DB, R-Sr.; Andrew O'Neill, WR, Jr.; Dhameer Bradley, WR, Jr. (UConn transfer); Sean Merrill, OL, Sr.; Sean Peters, OL, Sr.; Ryan Cottrell, DL, Sr.; Dylan Ackerson, DL, Jr.; Kevin Barry, LB, Sr.; Tim Johnson, CB, Sr.; Alec Finelli, S, Jr.; Alec Finney, PK/P, Sr.


OUTLOOK: The Pioneers have plenty of motivated upperclassmen who won NEC titles in 2013 and '14. Among them is QB Noel, who has won All-NEC first-team honors for three straight years but wasn't the preseason pick by the conference coaches (it was Duquesne's Dillon Buechel). It seems impossible for the Pioneers to replace leading receiver Dube, but they first want to run the ball with Imeokparia and Chavious. Fourth-year starters Rentz and Cottrell lead a defense which has big hitters. The focus has been on improving the pass defense as the Pioneers allowed over 238 passing yards per game last season. Sacred Heart's non-conference schedule isn't taxing - it opens with three Pioneer Football League opponents - so the Pioneers should get off to a solid start in 2016.


SCHEDULE:


Sept. 3, at Stetson


Sept. 10, Valparaiso


Sept. 17, Marist


Sept. 24, at Stony Brook


Oct. 1, at Wagner*


Oct. 15, at Cornell


Oct. 22, Robert Morris*


Oct. 29, Saint Francis*


Nov. 5, at Central Connecticut State*


Nov. 12, at Duquesne*


Nov. 19, Bryant*


* - NEC game


---=


3. SAINT FRANCIS (PA.) RED FLASH=


LOCATION: Loretto, Pennsylvania


STADIUM: DeGol Field


COACH: Chris Villarrial (24-41 in six seasons at Saint Francis)


LAST SEASON: 6-4 overall, 4-2 NEC (2nd)


STARTERS RETURNING: 14 (6 offense/8 defense)


THREE KEY LOSSES: Khairi Dickson, RB; Terell Smith, WR; DaQuan Minter, CB


ONE TO WATCH ON OFFENSE: Marcus Bagley, RB, Sr.


ONE TO WATCH ON DEFENSE: Lorenzo Jerome, FS/RS, Sr.


OTHER KEY PLAYERS: Zack Drayer, QB, Sr.; Kam Lewis, WR, So.; Cyrus Holder, WR, Fr.; Sam Freireich, LT, Sr.; Christian Eubanks, LG, So.; Jimmy Marks, C, Sr.; Louie Gartner, DE, So.; Wesley Nagaseu, NT, Sr.; Erik Walker, LB, Sr.; Solomon Leaeno, LB, Sr.; Malik Duncan, CB, Jr.; Delondo Boyd, SS, Jr.; Lance Geesey, PK, Sr.


OUTLOOK: Coming of their first winning season since 1992 and their best one on the FCS level, the Red Flash could very well win their first NEC title this year. Their matchup with Duquesne is at DeGol Field. Villarrial likes to play a lot of players, so the depth will pay off. Jerome will keep the secondary at a high level and the defense has a disruptive force in NT Nagaseu. On offense, QB Drayer (152-for-250, 1,977 yards, 15 TDs, 9 INTs) is highly experienced, and the Red Flash return their starting offensive line, anchored by Marks. The loss of All-NEC RB Dickson is tempered by the return of Bagley, a bruiser who was the conference's 2014 offensive rookie of the year. The Red Flash also have dominant special teams, although standout Geesey is coming off hip surgery. Like preseason favorite Duquesne, the Red Flash had a conference-high six selections on the NEC preseason team.


SCHEDULE:


Sept. 3, at Montana


Sept. 10, at Towson


Sept. 17, at Columbia


Sept. 24, at Albany


Oct. 1, Malone


Oct. 8, at Robert Morris*


Oct. 15, Bryant*


Oct. 22, Duquesne*


Oct. 29, at Sacred Heart*


Nov. 12, Central Connecticut State*


Nov. 19, at Wagner*


* - NEC game


---=

4. BRYANT BULLDOGS=


LOCATION: Smithfield, Rhode Island


STADIUM: Bulldog Stadium


COACH: Marty Fine (75-55 in 12 seasons at Bryant; 90-60 overall)


LAST SEASON: 5-6 overall, 3-3 NEC (Tie/3rd)


STARTERS RETURNING: 9 (5 offense/ 4 defense)


THREE KEY LOSSES: Ricardo McCray, RB; Chad Ward, WR; Abe M'Bodj, OL


ONE TO WATCH ON OFFENSE: Dalton Easton, QB, Sr. (205-for-374, 2,601 yards, 22 TDs, 13 INTs)


ONE TO WATCH ON DEFENSE: Patrick Kenney, LB, Sr. (85 TT, 8.5 TFL, 2.5 sacks, 1 INT, 1 QBH, 2 FR, 1 FF)


OTHER KEY PLAYERS: Ryan Black, RB, Sr.; Alfred Dorbor, RB, Fr.; Hunter Taute, FB, Jr.; Taylor Barthelette, WR, Sr.; Matt Sewall, WR, Jr.; Keenan Thompson, WR, Sr.; Tyler Cardoze, OL, Sr.; George Smith, OL, Sr.; Dillon Guthro, DE, R-So.; Joe Mendez, DE, So.; Kevin Lazo, DL, So.; Marquise Watson, DL/LB, Sr.; Robert Brown, LB, Fr.; Thomas Costigan, LB, So.; Charles Wingate, DB, Sr.; Charles Keenan, FS, Sr.; Brandon Owens, SS, Sr.; Patrick Champagnie, DB, Jr.


OUTLOOK: Still seeking their first NEC title, the Bulldogs were picked first in the conference's preseason poll last year and it seemed to weigh on them while they slumped to a mediocre season. With only nine returning starters, they will need young players to fill key roles. Easton is coming off a season in which he led the NEC in passing yards and yards per game, but he won't have running back Ricardo McCray, the 2015 NEC offensive player of the year, around to keep defenses more honest. The Bulldogs should be solid defensively as they return three of their top four tacklers in LBs Kenney and Watson and FS Keenan, while Wingate made the NEC preseason team. The Bulldogs will make a Sept. 10 visit to Montana State - the program's first-ever trip west of the Mississippi River.


SCHEDULE:


Sept. 3, Merrimack


Sept. 10, at Montana State


Sept. 17, Brown


Sept. 24, Central Connecticut State*


Oct. 1, Maine


Oct. 15, at Saint Francis*


Oct. 22, Wagner*


Oct. 29, at Duquesne*


Nov. 5, Robert Morris*


Nov. 12, at Coastal Carolina


Nov. 19, at Sacred Heart*


* - NEC game


---=

5. ROBERT MORRIS COLONIALS=


LOCATION: Moon Township, Pennsylvania


STADIUM: Joe Walton Stadium


COACH: John Banaszak (5-17 in two seasons at Robert Morris)


LAST SEASON: 4-7 overall, 2-4 NEC (6th)


STARTERS RETURNING: 14 (7 offense/7 defense)


THREE KEY LOSSES: Forrest Mason, DE; Mike Stojkovic, ILB; Jake Tkach, ILB


ONE TO WATCH ON OFFENSE: Kyle Buss, WR, R-So. (50 receptions, 742 yards, 2 TDs)


ONE TO WATCH ON DEFENSE: Marcelis Branch, CB, R-Sr. (63 TT, 2 TFL, 1 INT, 3 PBU, 1 BK)


OTHER KEY PLAYERS: Matt Barr, QB, So.; Rameses Owens, RB, Jr.; Cole Blake, RB, Jr.; Warren Robinson, WR/PR, So.; Nic Lamica, TE, R-Jr.; Blake Chambliss, OL, R-Jr.; Ryan Lewis, DE, Sr.; Austin Trgovcich, DE, R-Sr.; Zack Zamiska, DT, R-Jr.; Jimmy Masson, OLB, Sr.; Gerald Ferguson, OLB, Jr.; Drew Allen, CB, Jr.; Ryan Richards Jr., SS, Jr.; Andy Smigiera, WS, Sr.


OUTLOOK: As expected, Banaszak is turning the Colonials into a hard-nosed team. They were among the best in the FCS against the pass last season and their 34 sacks were impressive. With Branch and Smigiera back to anchor the secondary, the Colonials expect similar success this year. But the offense needs improvement after it averaged only 14 points per game. It has a new coordinator in Mike Miller, who began his career with the Colonials under former coach Joe Walton and has 13 years of NFL experience. Barr figures to cut down on interceptions as a sophomore and has a terrific go-to target in Buss, the 2015 NEC offensive rookie of the year. They have to shore up the offensive line, which lost three starters. A healthier Owens (125 carries, 456 yards, 4 TDs) alongside Blake boosts the run game.


SCHEDULE:


Sept. 1, Alderson-Broaddus


Sept. 10, at Dayton


Sept. 17, at Youngstown State


Sept. 24, Malone


Oct. 1, at Liberty


Oct. 8, Saint Francis*


Oct. 15, at Duquesne*


Oct. 22, at Sacred Heart*


Oct. 29, Central Connecticut State*


Nov. 5, at Bryant*


Nov. 12, Wagner*


* - NEC game


---=

6. CENTRAL CONNECTICUT STATE BLUE DEVILS=


LOCATION: New Britain, Connecticut


STADIUM: Arute Field


COACH: Pete Rossomando (7-16 in two seasons at Central Connecticut State; 49-29 overall)


LAST SEASON: 4-7 overall, 3-3 NEC (Tie/3rd)


STARTERS RETURNING: 16 (7 offense/9 defense)


THREE KEY LOSSES: Tavion Pauldo, QB; Tyler Hurd, OL; Jevon Elmore, CB


ONE TO WATCH ON OFFENSE: Cameron Nash, RB/KR, Jr. (118 carries, 676 yards, 3 TDs; 18 receptions, 218 yards, 1 TD)


ONE TO WATCH ON DEFENSE: Asia Bolling, DE/OLB, Sr. (64 TT, 14.5 TFL, 4.5 sacks, 2 PBU, 1 FR, 2 FF)


OTHER KEY PLAYERS: Jake Dolegala, QB, So.; Brenden Lytton, RB, Sr.; Dan Hebert, WR, Sr.; Joey Fields, WR, Jr.; Alex Jamele, WR, So.; K.J. Smith, TE, So.; Chris Tinkham, DL, So.; Randall LaGuerre, LB, Jr.; Keir Minor, OLB, Sr.; Seth Manzanares, OLB, Jr.; Najae Brown, S, Jr.; Jarrod Cann, S, Jr.; Tymir Hinton, S, So.


OUTLOOK: The two-deep was filled with underclassmen last season, so there's cause for optimism at CCSU. The mobile Pauldo shared time at quarterback as a freshman, but he's no longer in the program, leaving Dolegala to run the offense full-time. The Blue Devils like the ball in the hand of the versatile Nash, although the run game also is getting back Lytton, who was expected to be the starter last year but was injured in preseason camp. All-America CB Elmore, who racked up 18 passes defended, was lost to academics, which means Brown must steady the secondary. Bolling and LB LaGuerre are the defensive standouts. Improvement is vital because the Blue Devils have a tough non-conference schedule which includes James Madison, Coastal Carolina and Penn.


SCHEDULE:


Sept. 2, Lafayette


Sept. 10, at James Madison


Sept. 17, Bowie State


Sept. 24, at Bryant*


Oct. 8, at Penn


Oct. 15, Wagner*


Oct. 22, at Coastal Carolina


Oct. 29, at Robert Morris*


Nov. 5, Sacred Heart*


Nov. 12, at Saint Francis*


Nov. 19, Duquesne*


* - NEC game


---=

7. WAGNER SEAHAWKS=


LOCATION: Staten Island, New York


STADIUM: Wagner College Stadium


COACH: Jason Houghtaling (1-10 in one season at Wagner)


LAST SEASON: 1-10 overall, 1-5 NEC (7th)


STARTERS RETURNING: 8 (5 offense/3 defense)


THREE KEY LOSSES: Otis Wright, RB/KR; Stephon Font-Toomer, LB; Greg Hilliard, LB


ONE TO WATCH ON OFFENSE: Ryan Owens, TE, Grad (29 receptions, 353 yards, 1 TD)


ONE TO WATCH ON DEFENSE: Najee Harris, OLB, Sr. (58 TT, 10 TFL, 4 sacks, 2 INTs, 4 PBU, 3 QBH, 1 FF)


OTHER KEY PLAYERS: Alex Thomson, QB, Jr.; A.J. Long, QB, Jr.; Matthias McKinnon, RB, Sr.; Denzell Knight, RB, Jr.; Andre Yevchinecz, WR/PR, Sr.; Brandon Peoples, WR, Sr.; Matt Diaz, OL, Sr.; Jordan Baskerville, DE. Jr.; Randall May, LB, Jr.; Tim Hayes, CB, Sr.; Sterling Lowry, CB, So.; Kemani Howard, FS, Jr.; Bryan Rafano, P, Sr.


OUTLOOK: The transition from former coach Walt Hameline to Houghtaling wasn't smooth last season as the Seawhawks dropped off from a 7-4 record and share of the NEC title in 2014. They weren't the usual ball-control team and the defense struggled up the middle. Houghtaling thinks they have to play harder, but it shows in the preseason competition for playing time. Thomson (90-for-175, 1,085 yards, 8 TDs, 6 INTs) is the incumbent at quarterback, but he's been pushed by Long, a transfer from Syracuse. New offensive coordinator Rich Santangello will rely on fifth-year TE Owens for leadership as well as production. The defense seeks improvement after ranking at the bottom of the NEC. Harris is asked to lead a turnaround. With four of the first games at home, the Seahawks can envision a stronger start this season.


SCHEDULE:


Sept. 1, St. Anselm


Sept. 10, Concordia (Mich.)


Sept. 24, at Boston College


Oct. 1, Sacred Heart*


Oct. 8, Columbia


Oct. 15, at Central Connecticut State*


Oct. 22, at Bryant*


Oct. 29, at Massachusetts


Nov. 5, Duquesne*


Nov. 12, at Robert Morris*


Nov. 19, Saint Francis*


* - NEC game

 

[CNOTES]

Phil Steele Talks 2016 College Football Season

---

Good interview with Phil Steele about the upcoming college football season:

http://www.cyinterview.com/2016/08/phil-steele-ownereditor-of-phil-steeles-college-football-preview-joins-us-for-a-not-to-be-missed-breakdown-of-this-years-college-football-season

 

[CNOTES]

2016 Sun Belt Preview
August 15, 2016



We’re Getting There

The Sun Belt Conference will hold its first ever football championship game beginning in 2018.


“This championship will be a first-class experience – and we look forward to it being a launching-pad for a team to reach the College Football Playoff’s ‘New Year’s Six’ bowl games,” said Commissioner Karl Benson.


Details regarding how the two participants will be selected will be available at a later date.

Four No More


After four consecutive seasons with no less than nine victories - including four straight New Orleans Bowl wins in four years under head coach Mark Hudspeth – Louisiana Lafayette’s Ragin’ Cajuns saw the tables turn on them in 2015 when they won just four games.


And speaking of four-of-a-kind, Arkansas State saw its four straight GoDaddy Bowl games streak come to a halt. Obviously bummed to the max, the Red Wolves closed out the campaign with a 19-point loss to Louisiana Tech in the New Orleans bowl.

More Than Holding Our Own


After a rocky 1-5 start in bowl games from 2001-05, the Sun Belt has gone toe-to-toe with other bowl teams since, sporting a respectable 14-12 SU and 13-12-1 ATS winning record in the post season since 2006.


The fun in the sun guys have been especially profitable for backers when taking more than 3 points in bowl games, going 6-1 ATS. More impressive, they also managed to win six of the seven games in SU fashion, including Georgia Southern’s impressive 58-27 romp over Bowling Green as 5-point dogs in last year’s Go Daddy Bowl.


Note: Numbers following team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, along with the number of returning linemen, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback.


APPALACHIAN STATE (Offense -*6/3, Defense - 9/2 47 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: UPLOAD THE APP


Behind returning QB Taylor Lamb with 2,387 passing and 524 rushing yards for 34 combined touchdowns, and RB Marcus Cox with 1,481 rushing and 160 passing yards for 11 combined touchdowns last year), the boys from Boone outyarded conference foes by 144 YPG, best in the Sun Belt, last season. And that in only ASU’s 2nd year with FBS credentials. Looking back, the Mountaineers have suffered only ONE losing season since 1993 (in part to an injury-riddled 2013 campaign). And just like last year when they won 10 games while tackling a schedule dotted with only 4 winning opponents, this year’s schedule is a mirror-comparison to last – only with no back-to-back away games. Here we go again.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Mountaineers are 5-2 SUATS versus winning foes since becoming an FBS squad.


PASS


ARKANSAS STATE (Offense - 6/4, Defense - 7/2, 49 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: HALLELUJAH


Like a good evening prayer before bedtime, Blake Anderson’s return to Jonesboro for a third successive season is comforting for Red Wolves fans. It’s safe to say that after taking the field with 5 different head coaches in as many years, ASU has finally found tranquility. They also found life in the Sun Belt Conference to their liking last season, going 8-0 en route to an SBC title. In the process the Wolves scored 8 defensive TDs (tops in the nation), intercepted 26 passes (most in the nation), and finished tied for the 2nd most turnovers gained (34). However, 4 road games in the final 5 contests of the campaign will certainly put our STAT YOU WILL LIKE below to the test.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Red Wolves are 31-8 SU and 27-12 ATS from Game Six out the last five years.


PLAY AGAINST: at UL-Lafayette (11/26)


GEORGIA SOUTHERN (Offense -*6/3, Defense - 6/4, 43 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: OFF THE FRITZ


How impressive was Ga Southern’s season last year? Consider: All 3 of the Eagles’ FBS non-conference opponents in 2015 – West Virginia, Western Michigan and Georgia – played in, and won, their respective bowl games. The 4th non-conference team, The Citadel, advanced to the 2nd round of the FCS Playoffs. New head coach Tyson Summers, a former defensive coordinator at Colorado State and UCF, brings in a staff that has been a part of 4 NCAA national championships, 19 NCAA conference championships, and 51 NCAA postseason victories. Summers also welcomes the top recruiting class in SBC this year to a team that has recorded 109 rushing TDs and 9,292 rushing yards – the most in the FBS over the past 2 seasons. Whew!


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Eagles have gone 10-1 SU at home the last two years, with an average win margin of 30.8 PPG.


PLAY ON: at Georgia Tech (10/15)

GEORGIA STATE (Offense -*7/2, Defense - 9/3, 43 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: AS THE WORM TURNS


Until last season, Georgia State was -29 in net turnovers in 2 seasons under head coach Trent Miles. The Panthers whittled that number down to a respectable -3 last season and, in the process, went from a 1-23 FBS team under Miles to a bowl squad in 2015 – a dramatic turn of events. They closed like a freight train in the process, winning and covering in each of their final 4 games of the season by a whopping 95.5 points ATS, including a stunning 34-7 win over SBC powerhouse Georgia Southern as 20-point dogs! Sixteen returning starters, including Sun Belt Freshman of the Year WR Penny Hart (71 receptions and 1,099 yards last season) are anxious to resume where they ended but the question is: have the linemakers been alerted? Stay tuned.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Panthers ranked No. 127 (worst) in 4th down conversion percentage (.111) last season.


PLAY AGAINST: vs. Georgia Southern (11/19)

IDAHO (Offense -*7/3, Defense - 6/2, 41 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: FCS VISION


It was understandable learning of Idaho’s decision to head back to the FCS in 2018. The Vandals’ recruiting class ranks No. 128 (last) among FBS teams the last five years. And the results of such are indicated on the playing field. In twenty seasons at the FBS level, Idaho is 67-162 – a .293 winning percentage. Since 2000, the Vandals have had just one winning season. During 18 years playing at the FCS level, Idaho went 134-79 for a .629 winning percentage. The Vandals had 15 winning seasons and went to the postseason 11 times. Heck, you’d make the move, too, if given a choice. Note, though: To Paul Petrino’s credit, they’ve managed to improve the offense each and every year.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Vandals have lost 30 of their last 32 away games, including 24 losses in a row, until a win at Troy last season.


PLAY AGAINST: vs. Troy (10/1)

NEW MEXICO STATE (Offense -*7/3, Defense - 7/3, 38 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: WHERE TO TURN


Riding a 17-game losing skid, the Aggies broke their cherry in a dramatic 55-48 overtime victory against Idaho last season. In the process, they erased a 23-point deficit while also triggering the first 3-game win streak for NMSU since 2004. Unfortunately, the program suffered its biggest loss during the offseason with the Sun Belt opting to end its partnership with the school in 2017. The Aggies must decide whether to operate as an independent team or follow Idaho’s lead and move down to the FCS level. Meanwhile, star RB Larry Rose III returns after rumbling for 1,651 yards and 14 TDs last season, his second consecutive 1,000-yard season. Expect the Aggies to send a signal to the Sun Belt this season.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Aggies have allowed 20 of 36 foes season-high yardage under Doug Martin.


PLAY ON: at UTEP (9/3)

SOUTH ALABAMA (Offense -6/3, Defense - 6/2, 43 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: NO SLEIGHT OF HAND


After bowling for the first time in school history in 2014, last year’s laundry list of missing returnees looked mighty worrisome: gone were the starting quarterback, 2 leading rushers, 2 leading wide receivers, 3 multiple-year starting O-linemen, 3 top tacklers on the DL, 3 leading tacklers at linebacker, and 3 of 5 leading tacklers in the secondary. Through it all, head coach Joey Jones’ troops ended the season just one win away from being bowl-eligible for a second straight year, with a signature win at San Diego State as 17.5-point underdogs. Jones has built this program from the ground up since its inception in 2007 and his coaching prowess has put his signature on his this program.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: For the second consecutive season, 10 Jaguars earned all-conference honors last year.


PLAY AGAINST: vs. San Diego State (10/1)


TEXAS STATE (Offense -*4/3, Defense - 6/2, 44 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: START YOUR ENGINES


The Dennis Franchione era is officially over. After leading the Bobcats to a 17-19 record in their first three years of existence as an FBS program, he hands the reins over to Everett Withers, who in three years as a head coach guided the last two James Madison teams to NCAA Division I FCS Playoff appearances, and North Carolina to the 2011 Independence Bowl. His coaching background also includes working under Urban Meyer, Mack Brown and Jeff Fisher. Withers had one of the top offenses in the nation in 2015, ranking second in scoring and total offense with 44.3 points and 528.8 yards per game. The spring game resulted in an offensive blitzkrieg with the offense defeating the defense, 71-70.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Head coach Everett Withers’ James Madison Dukes led the FCS in 3rd-down conversions with 54 percent last season.


PLAY ON: at Georgia State (10/8)

TROY (Offense -*8/5, Defense - 8/3, 46 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: SECURE FOUNDATION


Neal Brown, formerly an assistant at Troy and also at Kentucky under Hal Mumme, won at least 8 games each year he was on the sidelines with the Trojans. And while it appeared 4 wins last year was a major disappointment, rest assured it was not. The Trojans improved 60 YPG on defense while outgaining 5 of their final 7 foes. In addition, the second-half improvement was especially noticeable as Troy averaged 36 PPG as opposed to just less than 20 PPG in the first six ‘getting to know Brown’ stage of the season. With 16 starters back, look for the surge to continue in Year Two of the makeover.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Trojans are 0-6 SU in their last six one-possession games.


PLAY ON: vs. Appalachian State (11/12)

UL-LAFAYETTE (Offense - 7/3, Defense - 6/3, 46 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: MISSION PROBABLE


After a run of 4 consecutive 9-4 seasons, and behind a rash of senior starter losses, the Ragin’ Cajuns ran out of creole last year, suffering their first losing season in the Mark Hudspeth era. With Hudspeth back along with 13 starters, ULL becomes a “mission team” in 2016 – and we’re not about to argue. With 50 of the 95 players on the roster hailing from the state of Louisiana, there is a genuine Cajun flavor to this squad. Interestingly, under Hudspeth, ULL is 28-3 SU in games when leading after the 1Q, 31-2 when leading at the half, and 35-1 when leading after the 3Q. In-game players would serve themselves well saving those numbers.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Hudspeth is 11-2 ATS as a dog versus winning opponents, and 10-2 SUATS as a dog of 6 or less points.


PLAY AGAINST: as a favorite vs. UL-Monroe (12/3)

UL-MONROE (Offense -*9/4, Defense - 3/0, 36 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: BACK UP OFF THE MATT


When your team ends the season outscored 20.8 points and outyarded 157 yards per game – the worst in the conference – it generally leads to coaches looking for new jobs, as Todd Berry is doing these days. Hired in his place was highly acclaimed Matt Viator, former 10-year mentor at McNeese State, where he led the Cowboys to a 78-33 record (the only coach in the Southland conference to make such a claim), including 5 appearances in the FCS playoffs. The first matter of attention will be addressing an offense that has been in serious decline each of the past 3 seasons. A new 4-2-5 defense completes the makeover. Seven away games, though, ensures an uphill battle.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Warhawks have been shut out in at least one game in 6 of the last 7 seasons – all versus Power Five conferences.


PLAY AGAINST: at Auburn (10/1)

 

[CNOTES]

2016 Southern Conference Preview
August 16, 2016


(STATS) - The Citadel had one of the best, and most surprising seasons in program history last year.


Count star linebacker Tevin Floyd among those who say it's time to move on.


"It definitely was a great time, it definitely was something great to build off of," the all-Southern Conference preseason selection said. "But you've got to kind of put it to rest with the new season coming up. You have to take things from what you did great last year and bring it on board this year. With all great things that you do, there's always room for improvement, and that's been our main goal this offseason."


The offseason has been both different and similar to last year, when The Citadel improved from 5-7 to 9-4, earned a share of its first conference title, secured its first FCS playoff berth since 1992, achieved its second-highest single-season win total and upset SEC member South Carolina.


All of that led to coach Mike Houston earning the head coaching position at James Madison. But The Citadel kept continuity within its program by elevating Brent Thompson from offensive coordinator to the top spot.


"It's a tough act to follow right now," Thompson said. "But we believe that the plan that we've had in place, the plan that we do have in place moving forward, our players are starting to believe in what we're doing. Really it's all about execution at this point."


It's a deep season in the SoCon title race, with the other defending co-champion, Chattanooga, favored to win a fourth straight title. The Citadel won't sneak up on anybody this time, putting a lot of pressure on the Bulldogs to stay on such a high level.


Following is a team-by-team breakdown of the 2016 Southern Conference race and STATS' predicted order of finish:


1. Chattanooga


2. The Citadel


3. Wofford


4. Western Carolina


5. Samford


6. Mercer


7. Furman


8. VMI


9. East Tennessee State


---=


TEAM CAPSULES=


1. CHATTANOOGA MOCS=


LOCATION: Chattanooga, Tennessee


STADIUM: Finley Stadium


COACH: Russ Huesman (50-33 in seven seasons at Chattanooga)


LAST SEASON: 9-4 overall, 6-1 Southern (Tie/1st)


STARTERS RETURNING: 14 (8 offense/6 defense)


THREE KEY LOSSES: Jacob Huesman, QB; Synjen Herren, RG; A.J. Hampton, LB


ONE TO WATCH ON OFFENSE: Derrick Craine, RB, Sr. (230 carries, 1,251 yards, 13 TDs)


ONE TO WATCH ON DEFENSE: Keionta Davis, DE, Sr. (39 TT, 17 TFL, 13.5 sacks, 6 PBU, 7 QBH, 1 FR, 1 FF)


OTHER KEY PLAYERS: Alejandro Bennifield, QB, Jr.; Richardre Bagley, RB, Jr.; C.J. Board, WR/PR, Sr.; James Stovall, WR, Jr.; Xavier Borishade, WR, Sr.; Corey Levin, OL, Sr.; Josh Cardiello, OL, Jr.; Isaiah Mack, DL, So.; Vantrel McMillan, DL, Sr.; Nakevion Leslie, LB, Sr.; Cedric Nettles, DB, Sr.; Lucas Webb, DB, Jr.; Henrique Ribeiro, PK, Sr.


OUTLOOK: The preseason favorites seek their fourth straight SoCon title and third consecutive appearance in the FCS playoffs. Russ Huesman no longer has his son, Jacob, running the offense after the four-year starting quarterback captured three straight SoCon offensive player of the year awards. But the Mocs love the strong arm and running ability of Bennifield. They supply him with a strong offensive line and last year's conference leader in rushing yards, Craine. The defense will stay fierce with Davis among the best pass rushers in the FCS and excellent athletes filling the units. They will even be strong on special teams, with PK Ribeiro coming off All-SoCon first-team honors. This season will be different without Jacob Huesman, but the Mocs have reloaded well for another title run. They wrap up the regular season with a visit to FBS champion Alabama.


SCHEDULE:


Sept. 1, Shorter


Sept. 10, Presbyterian


Sept. 17, at Furman*


Sept. 24, Samford*


Oct. 1, at East Tennessee State*


Oct. 8, Mercer*


Oct. 15, at The Citadel*


Oct. 22, VMI*


Oct. 29, at Western Carolina*


Nov. 12, Wofford*


Nov. 19, at Alabama


*- Southern Conference game


---=


2. THE CITADEL BULLDOGS=


LOCATION: Charleston, South Carolina


STADIUM: Johnson Hagood Stadium


COACH: Brent Thompson (first season at The Citadel)


LAST SEASON: 9-4 overall, 6-1 Southern (Tie/1st)


STARTERS RETURNING: 14 (7 offense/7 defense)


THREE KEY LOSSES: Mitchell Jeter, DL; James Riley, LB; Eric Goins, PK


ONE TO WATCH ON OFFENSE: Tyler Renew, B-Back, Sr. (162 carries, 839 yards, 5 TDs)


ONE TO WATCH ON DEFENSE: Dee Delaney, CB, Jr. (46 TT, 1 TFL, 5 INTs, 8 PBU, 1 FR, 2 FF, 1 BK)


OTHER KEY PLAYERS: Dominique Allen, QB, Jr.; Cam Jackson, A-Back, Jr.; Isiaha Smith, B-Back, Jr.; Isaiah Pinson, OL, Jr.; Kyle Weaver, OL, Sr.; Ryan Bednar, OL, Sr.; Kevin Graham, DL, So.; Dondray Copeland, LB, Sr.; Joe Crochet, DE/OLB, Sr.; Tevin Floyd, LB, Sr.; Quinlan Washington, LB, So.; Malik Diggs, DB, Sr.; Kailik Williams, DB, Jr.; Cody Clark, PK, Sr., (Middle Tennessee State transfer)


OUTLOOK: Coming off a surprising share of their first SoCon title since 1992, the Bulldogs face the pressure of higher expectations. Thompson was promoted from offensive coordinator to head coach after Mike Houston departed for James Madison. Despite the change, the feeling in Charleston is that this is simply the third year of the Bulldogs' initial plan. But the Bulldogs must try to win their SoCon (and season) opener at Mercer without QB Allen, who was suspended for the game because of a violation of team rules. With Allen (958 yards), Renew and Jackson (751) back in the triple option offense, they have three players who went over 750 rushing yards last season, and Smith went for another 563 yards. The defense suffered bigger losses, including Jeter, who was the SoCon co-defensive player of the year. But there is a standout in each line of defense with Crochet, Floyd and Delaney. The unit forced 22 interceptions and 31 turnovers last season.


SCHEDULE:


Sept. 3, at Mercer*


Sept. 10, Furman*


Sept. 17, at Gardner-Webb


Oct. 1, at Western Carolina*


Oct. 8, North Greenville


Oct. 15, Chattanooga*


Oct. 22, at Wofford*


Oct. 29, East Tennessee State*


Nov. 5, Samford*


Nov. 12, at VMI*


Nov. 19, at North Carolina


*- Southern Conference game


---=


3. WOFFORD TERRIERS=


LOCATION: Spartanburg, South Carolina


STADIUM: Gibbs Stadium


COACH: Mike Ayers (187-132-1 in 28 seasons at Wofford; 198-153-2 overall)


LAST SEASON: 5-6 overall, 3-4 Southern (Tie/4th)


STARTERS RETURNING: 17 (8 offense/9 defense)


THREE KEY LOSSES: Ray Smith, HB; Drake Michaelson, LB; Brion Anderson, CB


ONE TO WATCH ON OFFENSE: Anton Wahrby, RT, Sr. (SoCon preseason first team)


ONE TO WATCH ON DEFENSE: John Patterson, LB, Jr. (78 TT, 4.5 TFL, 2 sacks, 1 INT, 1 PBU)


OTHER KEY PLAYERS: Evan Jacks, QB, Sr.; Lorenzo Long, FB, Sr.; Will Gay, HB, Sr.; R.J. Taylor, WR, Jr.; Dequan Miller, OL, Sr.; Bradley Way, OL, Sr.; Steven Cornellier, DL, Sr.; Boston Bryant, DL, Sr.; Miles Brown, DL, So.; Daryl Vining, LB, Jr.; Terrance Morris, LB, Jr.; Michael Roach, LB, Jr.; Jaleel Green, SS, Sr.; David Marvin, PK, Jr.


OUTLOOK: Ayers, the dean of SoCon coaches, feels the Terriers are ready to get back to the playoffs after a three-year absence. His veteran team comes back healthier after being ravaged by injuries. The Terriers' triple option offense ranked fourth in the FCS in rushing yards per game (300.2). QB Jacks has made at least five starts in each of his first three seasons and is a threat when he's not getting the ball to Long (962 yards, 8 TDs) and Gay, who was among the injured last season. The offensive line, anchored by Wahrby, will be one of the best in the SoCon. In a conference of terrific rushers, the defense ranked first in rushing defense, but it will again have to get the job done by committee because it's not full of stars. Graduation will make the secondary look different, so safeties JoJo Tillery and Nick Ward have to take big steps this season. The Terriers will want to cut down on the 27.7 points they surrendered each game. Schedule-wise, they have to overcome some difficult road tests in the SoCon.


SCHEDULE:


Sept. 1, at Tennessee Tech


Sept. 10, at Ole Miss


Sept. 17, Johnson C. Smith


Sept. 24, East Tennessee State*


Oct. 1, at Samford*


Oct. 8, at Western Carolina*


Oct. 22, The Citadel*


Oct. 29, Mercer*


Nov. 5, at Furman*


Nov. 12, at Chattanooga*


Nov. 19, VMI*


*- Southern Conference game


---=


4. WESTERN CAROLINA CATAMOUNTS=


LOCATION: Cullowhee, North Carolina


STADIUM: E.J. Whitmire Stadium


COACH: Mark Speir (17-29 in four seasons at Western Carolina)


LAST SEASON: 7-4 overall, 5-2 Southern (3rd)


STARTERS RETURNING: 12 (6 offense/6 defense)


THREE KEY LOSSES: Troy Mitchell, QB; Karnorris Benson, WR; Sertonuse Harris, DB


ONE TO WATCH ON OFFENSE: Detrez Newsome, RB/KR, Jr. (190 carries, 1,109 yards, 9 TDs; 37 receptions, 281 yards, 3 TDs)


ONE TO WATCH ON DEFENSE: Daniel Riddle, LB, R-Jr. (129 TT, 3 TFL, 2 INTs, 1 PBU, 1 QBH, 1 FF)


OTHER KEY PLAYERS: Wes Holcombe, QB, Jr.; Spearman Robinson, WR, R-Sr.; Terryon Robinson, WR, R-Jr.; Tyler Sexton, TE, Jr.; Zach Weeks, OL, R-So.; Nathan Dalton, OL, R-So.; Tanner Poindexter, OL, R-Jr.; Ezavian Dunn, DT, Jr.; Tyler Junius, DT, Jr.; Tyson Dickson, LB, Sr.; Fred Payne, DB, Sr.; Trey Morgan, DB, Sr.; Marvin Tillman, DB, So.; Al Newman Jr., DB, Jr.; Logan Howard, PK, So.; Ian Berryman, P, R-So.


OUTLOOK: Speir has revitalized the Catamounts' program to the point that it will remain strong even with the big loss of QB Mitchell, the program's all-time leader in total offense. Holcombe emerged from spring practices at No. 1, but there's competition at the position. While hurt by the loss of three starters on the offensive line, the new QB will have excellent weapons around him in RB Newsome, who was the Catamounts' first 1,000-yard rusher since 2006, and WRs Spearman Robinson and Terryon Robinson, who missed last season with a wrist injury. The defense, under new coordinator Dustin Landry, returns its top four tacklers, led by LBs Riddle and Dickson. It helps to have The Citadel, Wofford and Chattanooga visiting E.J. Whitmire Stadium.


SCHEDULE:


Sept. 3, at East Carolina


Sept. 10, Gardner-Webb


Sept. 17, at East Tennessee State* (Bristol, Tennessee)


Oct. 1, The Citadel*


Oct. 8, Wofford*


Oct. 15, at Mercer*


Oct. 22, at Samford*


Oct. 29, Chattanooga*


Nov. 5, VMI*


Nov. 12, at Furman*


Nov. 19, at South Carolina


*- Southern Conference game


---=


5. SAMFORD BULLDOGS=

LOCATION: Birmingham, Alabama


STADIUM: Seibert Stadium


COACH: Chris Hatcher (6-5 in one season at Samford; 127-62 overall)


LAST SEASON: 6-5 overall, 3-4 Southern (Tie/4th)


STARTERS RETURNING: 15 (8 offense/7 defense)


THREE KEY LOSSES: Denzel Williams, RB; Michael Pierce, DL; James Bradberry, CB


ONE TO WATCH ON OFFENSE: Devlin Hodges, QB, So. (200-for-288, 2,230 yards, 12 TDs, 6 INTs; 74 carries, 327 yards, 2 TDs)


ONE TO WATCH ON DEFENSE: Jamerson Blount, FS, Sr. (75 TT, 2 TFL, 3 INT, 8 PBU, 2 FF)


OTHER KEY PLAYERS: K'rondi Larry, RB/KR, Jr.; Karel Hamilton, WR, Sr.; Kelvin McKnight, WR/PR, So.; Emmanuel Obajimi, WR, Sr.; Armando Bonheur, OL, Sr.; Gordon Crozier, C, Sr.; Antwan Johnson, OL, So.; Horace Roberts, DL, So.; Ahmad Gooden, DL, So.; Xavier Forrest, DL, Jr.; Roosevelt Donaldson, DL, Sr.; Shaheed Salmon, LB, Jr.; Tonne Osaigbovo, LB, Sr.; Omari Williams, CB, Jr.


OUTLOOK: While the Bulldogs lost some big-time individual talent, they believe they can be better collectively. After unleashing QB Hodges on the SoCon in the second half of last season, the future arrived for the Bulldogs. As a dual-threat, he is developing into a top talent. The offense, which led the SoCon with 479.7 yards per game, has to overcome the loss of RB Williams, but it returns three wide receivers, Hamilton (75 receptions, 880 yards, 4 TDs), McKnight and Obajimi, who each surpassed 50 receptions last season. The defensive losses were a little bigger, but FS Blount is the latest in a run of outstanding defensive backs. While the Bulldogs have Top 25 and playoff aspirations, they might fall just short in a strong season for the SoCon.


SCHEDULE:


Sept. 1, Mars Hill


Sept. 10, at Central Arkansas


Sept. 24, at Chattanooga*


Oct. 1, Wofford*


Oct. 8, at Furman*


Oct. 15, VMI*


Oct. 22, Western Carolina*


Oct. 29, at Mississippi State


Nov. 5, at The Citadel*


Nov. 12, Mercer*


Nov. 19, at East Tennessee State*


*- Southern Conference game


---=


6. MERCER BEARS=


LOCATION: Macon, Georgia


STADIUM: Moye Complex


COACH: Bobby Lamb (21-14 in three seasons at Mercer; 88-54 overall)


LAST SEASON: 5-6 overall, 2-5 Southern (Tie/6th)


STARTERS RETURNING: 20 (10 offense/10 defense)


KEY LOSSES: None


ONE TO WATCH ON OFFENSE: John Russ, QB, Sr. (170-292, 2,141 yards, 18 TDs, 3 INTs; 110 carries, 382 yards, 7 TDs)


ONE TO WATCH ON DEFENSE: Tosin Aquebor, DE/OLB, Sr. (39 TT, 10.5 TFL, 7 sacks, 1 PBU, 2 FR, 1 FF)


OTHER KEY PLAYERS: Alex Lakes, RB, Jr.; Tee Mitchell, RB, Jr.; Chandler Curtis, WR/RS, Jr.; Jimmie Robinson, WR/KR, So.; Marquise Irvin, WR, So.; Avery Ward, WR, Jr.; Sam Walker, TE, So.; Robert Brown, TE, Sr.; Bret Niederreither, OL, Sr.; Isaiah Buehler, DE, So.; LeMarkus Bailey, LB, So.; Tyler Ward, LB, Sr.; Tripp Patterson, LB, Sr.; Lee Bennett, LB, Jr.; Mike Gray, DB, Sr.; Lendell Arnold, DB, Sr.; Zach Jackson, DB, Sr.; Jeremy James, DB, Jr.; Jagger Lieb, PK, Jr.


OUTLOOK: A win over Chattanooga last season emphasized the growth of Mercer's program, and year four of the return to football brings a highly experienced squad. The Bears lost only one starter on each side of the ball and many of the key returnees are seniors and juniors. Efficient QB Russ is in his fourth season as the starter and the offense boasts a lot in the skill positions, including RBs Mitchell (946 yards, 6 TDs) and Lakes (699 yards, 7 TDs). Understandably, the offensive line has had to mature over time, but there's a noticeable anchor in SoCon preseason pick Niederreither. Injuries hurt the Bears last season, but one of the key players back is LB Bailey, who was off to a great start before he was lost in the third game. DEs Aquebor and Buehler should keep offenses busy when they come from the edge. The Bears have been scheduling future FBS matchups, with the Sept. 10 visit to Georgia Tech their first one.


SCHEDULE:


Sept. 3, The Citadel*


Sept. 10, at Georgia Tech


Sept. 17, Tennessee Tech


Oct. 1, at VMI*


Oct. 8, at Chattanooga*


Oct. 15, Western Carolina*


Oct. 22, at Austin Peay


Oct. 29, at Wofford*


Nov. 5, East Tennessee State*


Nov. 12, at Samford*


Nov. 19, Furman*


*- Southern Conference game


---=


7. FURMAN PALADINS=


LOCATION: Greenville, South Carolina


STADIUM: Paladin Stadium


COACH: Bruce Fowler (24-35 in five seasons at Furman)


LAST SEASON: 4-7 overall, 2-5 Southern (Tie/6th)


STARTERS RETURNING: 13 (6 offense/7 defense)


THREE KEY LOSSES: Joe Turner, OG; Cory Magwood, LB; Reggie Thomas, CB


ONE TO WATCH ON OFFENSE: Andrej Suttles, FL, R-Sr. (43 receptions, 621 yards, 4 TDs)


ONE TO WATCH ON DEFENSE: Trey Robinson, S, Sr. (68 TT, 4 INTs, 3 PBU)


OTHER KEY PLAYERS: Reese Hannon, QB, R-Sr.; P.J. Blazejowski, QB, Jr.; Antonio Wilcox, RB, Jr.Triston Luke, RB, So.; Duncan Fletcher, TE, Sr.; Matthew Schmidt, OT, Jr.; Jackson Buonomia, OT, Sr.; Jordan Hawkins, NT, Sr.; Brad Minter, DE, Sr.; T.J. Warren, DE, R-Sr.; Brian Ross, DE, R-Sr.; Carl Rider, LB, R-Sr.; Byron Johnson, SS, Sr.; Jamarri Milliken, CB, R-Sr.; Aaquil Annoor, CB, So.; Jon Croft Hollingsworth, PK/P, Jr.


OUTLOOK: Boasting an excellent class of seniors, the Paladins hope to reverse last year's disappointing season, which seemed promising early with a win at UCF. However, their September schedule is brutally tough, including games against last year's SoCon co-champs, The Citadel and Chattanooga. Fowler wants his offense to get back to running the ball consistently - long a staple in the program. Hannon (126-for-228, 1,409 yards, 6 TDs, 6 INTs) is the returning quarterback, but Blazejowski has played a lot in his first two seasons. WR Suttles and TE Duncan provide a solid pair of receiving options. Magwood is a big loss on defense and the Paladins struggled to stop the run while managing only eight sacks last season, but a solid secondary (Robinson and Annoor) suggests improvement is on the way. The Paladins' seventh-place prediction in the SoCon's two preseason polls was warranted, but they can be a better team than that.


SCHEDULE:


Sept. 2, at Michigan State


Sept. 10, at The Citadel*


Sept. 17, Chattanooga*


Sept. 24, at Coastal Carolina


Oct. 1, Kennesaw State


Oct. 8, Samford*


Oct. 15, at East Tennessee State*


Oct. 29, at VMI*


Nov. 5, Wofford*


Nov. 12, Western Carolina*


Nov. 19, at Mercer*


*- Southern Conference game


---=


8. VMI KEYDETS=


LOCATION: Lexington, Virginia


STADIUM: Alumni Memorial Field


COACH: Scott Wachenheim (2-9 in one season at VMI)


LAST SEASON: 2-9 overall, 1-6 Southern (8th)


STARTERS RETURNING: 15 (7 offense/8 defense)


THREE KEY LOSSES: Derrick Ziglar, RB; Joe Nelson, DL; Hayden Alford, P


ONE TO WATCH ON OFFENSE: Al Cobb, QB, R-Jr. (238-for-389, 2,736 yards, 14 TDs, 18 INTs)


ONE TO WATCH ON DEFENSE: Ryan Francis, LB, R-Jr. (115 TT, 9.5 TFL, 1 sack, 3 PBU, 1 FR, 3 FF)


OTHER KEY PLAYERS: Brice Tucker, RB, R-So.; Aaron Sanders, WR, Sr.; Dane Forlines, WR/RS, Sr.; Andrew Lewis, OL, Sr.; Allan Cratsenberg, LB, Jr.; Alijah Robinson, OLB, Sr.; Tony Richardson, OLB, Jr.; Brian Lipscomb, OLB, R-So.; Greg Sanders, DB, Jr.; Jon Strozyk, DB, R-Jr.; Damian Jones, DB, R-Sr.; Dillon Christopher, PK, Sr.


OUTLOOK: Competing well in the SoCon is never easy for the military academy, but VMI has an experienced team ready for improvement in Wachenheim's second season. Four of the Keydets' losses were by six points or less a year ago, so they weren't far off from more success. They return the all-SoCon preseason quarterback in Cobb, who has passed for 5,677 yards in his first two seasons. But he has to cut down on interceptions after tying for the national high (18) last season. Top WR Sanders is coming off an 84-catch season. The defense was improved last year, but it needs better play on the line. The strength is at linebacker, where Francis and Cratsenberg both went over 100 tackles last season. By playing all three non-conference games on the road, the Keydets have only four games at Foster Stadium.


SCHEDULE:


Sept. 3, at Akron


Sept. 10, at Morehead State


Sept. 24, at Bucknell


Oct. 1, Mercer*


Oct. 8, East Tennessee State*


Oct. 15, at Samford*


Oct. 22, at Chattanooga*


Oct. 29, Furman*


Nov. 5, at Western Carolina*


Nov. 12, The Citadel*


Nov. 19, at Wofford*


*- Southern Conference game


---=


9. EAST TENNESSEE STATE BUCCANEERS=


LOCATION: Johnson City, Tennessee


STADIUM: Science Hill High School


COACH: Carl Torbush (first season at East Tennessee State; 17-18 overall)


LAST SEASON: 2-9 as FCS independent


STARTERS RETURNING: 21 (10 offense/11 defense)


KEY LOSS: Demetrius Anthony, WR


ONE TO WATCH ON OFFENSE: Jajuan Stinson, RB, R-So. (117 carries, 586 yards, 5 TDs)


ONE TO WATCH ON DEFENSE: Dylan Weigel, LB, R-So. (127 TT, 10.5 TFL, 2 sacks, 1 PBU, 3 QBH, 2 FR, 2 FF)


OTHER KEY PLAYERS: Austin Herink, QB, R-So.; Falon Lee, RB, R-Jr.; Dalton Ponchillia, WR, R-Jr.; Drake Powell, WR, So.; Matt Brewer, OL, R-So.; Greg McCloud, OL, R-So.; Matt Pyke, OL, R-So.; Nasir Player, DL, R-Fr.; Joe Dossett, DL, So.; Chris Bouyer, DL, So.; Tremond Ferrell, DL, So.; Austin Gatewood, LB, R-So.; River Boruff, LB, R-So.; Trey Quillin, LB, R-So.; Daren Ardis, DB, Jr.; Paul Hunter, DB, Jr. (Trinity Valley CC transfer); Domenique Williams, DB/KR, So.; J.J. Jerman, PK, So.


OUTLOOK: The jump into the SoCon is a big step for an ETSU program that last year returned to football for the first time since 2003. They were outscored 416-180, beating only sub-Division I programs Warner and Kentucky Wesleyan. But last year, only one starter was older than a sophomore. Plus, a number of players who were redshirts are challenging for positions. As the Buccaneers continue to grow as a program, Torbush is relying on his offensive and defensive linemen to be noticeably bigger and better. The team's standout is Weigel, who had 56 more stops than the second-leading tackler, Boruff. QB Herink will keep getting better, and that will come with an improved running game featuring Stinson and Lee. The season's second game - Sept. 17 versus Western Carolina - will be played at Bristol Motor Speedway.


SCHEDULE:


Sept. 3, at Kennesaw State


Sept. 17, Western Carolina* (at Bristol, Tennessee)


Sept. 24, at Wofford*


Oct. 1, Chattanooga*


Oct. 8, at VMI*


Oct. 15, Furman*


Oct. 20, West Virginia Wesleyan


Oct. 29, at The Citadel*


Nov. 5, at Mercer*


Nov. 12, Cumberland University


Nov. 19, Samford*


*- Southern Conference game

 

[CNOTES]

Guys on the rise: Assistants who could be head coaches soon
August 17, 2016


Sixteen assistant coaches in 2015 will be starting their first full seasons as FBS head coaches, with seven of them landing jobs in Power Five conferences.


The highest-profile moves had former Alabama defensive coordinator Kirby Smart going to Georgia, former Michigan DC D.J. Durkin taking over at Maryland and former Ohio State DC Chris Ash getting hired at Rutgers.


Who'll become head coaches after this season?


Here's a look, in alphabetical order, at some assistants who appear to have what it takes to run their own programs:


---

Dave Aranda, defensive coordinator, LSU


Les Miles hired Aranda away from Wisconsin, where the 39-year-old oversaw a Badgers defense that ranked among the top five nationally in four major categories over the last three years. Before moving to Wisconsin, he coordinated one of the country's top defenses at Utah State.


Aranda's greatest strength is his ability to relate to his players. He has a knack for making hard-to-digest concepts easy to understand, and then he turns his charges loose to make plays.


---


Geoff Collins, defensive coordinator, Florida


His name was connected to the UCF opening, and he'll be in the mix other places if the Gators' defense is as good as it was last year.


Florida was so impressed with Collins in his first year under Jim McElwain that he received a $300,000 raise, to more than $1 million. He'll get a $150K retention bonus if he's still in Gainesville come February.


Collins is a top-notch recruiter, and he has had an impressive career track that has taken him to Georgia Tech, Alabama, UCF, Florida International and Mississippi State.


---

Tee Martin, offensive coordinator, Southern California


The 38-year-old Martin is a phenomenal recruiter whose career has been on a steady ascent. He joined the Trojans' staff in 2012 as receivers coach, became pass game coordinator in 2014 and was named offensive coordinator at the end of last season.


As receivers coach, a position he still holds, Martin has tutored Biletnikoff Award winner Marqise Lee, Robert Woods, Nelson Agholor and JuJu Smith-Schuster.


Martin knows how to win, too. He was Peyton Manning's backup for two years at Tennessee and led the Volunteers to a 13-0 record and national championship as a junior in 1998.


---


Lincoln Riley, offensive coordinator, Oklahoma


Riley is as accomplished as any 32-year-old could hope to be in this profession. He won the 2015 Broyles Award as the nation's top assistant coach, and his Baker Mayfield-led Air Raid offense was nearly unstoppable as the Sooners made the College Football Playoff.


Riley was linked to head coaching jobs, including South Carolina, and OU extended his contract through 2018 and gave him a raise from $500,000 to $900,000 a year. No matter. It won't be long before the native of Muleshoe, Texas, moves on and up.


---


Mike Sanford, offensive coordinator, Notre Dame


Sanford was linked to the Syracuse opening last November, and Irish coach Brian Kelly knows his 33-year-old offensive coordinator will be lured away sooner than later.


Sanford proved his mettle after he lost RB Tarean Folston and QB Malik Zaire to injuries early last season. Sanford molded DeShone Kizer into an effective replacement for Zaire.


Sanford's star began rising during two stints at Stanford, under Jim Harbaugh and David Shaw, and he's got good blood lines. His father, Mike Sr., is a longtime assistant and head coach in the college ranks.


---

Brent Venables, defensive coordinator, Clemson


The 45-year-old Venables' name has been floated for openings over the years, and it's a surprise he's still waiting for his opportunity. He may or may not be the guy Kansas State turns to when his mentor, Bill Snyder, decides to retire for good.


Venables turns out some of the nation's best defenses year-in and year-out, and he's an excellent recruiter. In his 20 years as a full-time assistant, his teams have gone to 20 bowl games and have won 10 or more games in 15 seasons. He's got a good thing going at Clemson, and with a $1.4 million salary, he can afford to be choosy.


---

Six other assistants to keep an eye on: Josh Conklin, defensive coordinator, Pittsburgh; Jimmy Lake, co-defensive coordinator and secondary coach, Washington; Danny Langsdorf, offensive coordinator, Nebraska; Todd Orlando, defensive coordinator, Houston; Jeremy Pruitt, defensive coordinator, Alabama; Marcel Yates, defensive coordinator, Arizona.

 

[CNOTES]

SEC vs. the Field
August 19, 2016


Shocker: SEC Is Clear Betting Favorite To House National Champion


The SEC is the nation's best football conference. Stepping out on a limb with that statement, I know. It's akin to saying "Gisele Bundchen isn't hard on the eyes" or "taxes are a bit of an inconvenience."


But for purposes of this 2016 NCAA football preview story, the SEC statement is germane and important. That's because on BetOnline's NCAA football season props, the SEC is a +185 favorite among all the conferences to be where the national champion is from.


This year's College Football Playoff semifinals are again on New Year's Eve -- unfortunately, but that won't be the case again for a while after recent changes following disappointing TV ratings last season -- and at the Peach Bowl in Atlanta and Fiesta Bowl outside Phoenix. The title game is held in Tampa's Raymond James Stadium, home of the NFL's Buccaneers, on Jan. 9.


There was panic in SEC Nation entering the 2015 season as the conference didn't win the title in either 2014, the year of the first College Football Playoff, or in 2013, the final BCS National Championship Game. You could understand the angst somewhat as the SEC won the previous seven national championship before that, an unprecedented run. But of course Alabama knocked off unbeaten Clemson in last season's title game in Glendale, Ariz., the Tide's fourth national championship in the past seven years.


I would argue that there are three legitimate national title contenders in the SEC this season: Alabama (+600 favorite on BetOnline NCAA football odds), LSU (+800) and Tennessee (+1400). We have yet to see a conference get two teams into the College Football Playoff or one with two losses make it. Might that change this year?


The Vols are favored to win the SEC East for the first time since 2007. What happens if Tennessee loses a close game on Oct. 15 at home to Alabama but finishes 11-1 and wins the East? Let's say the Tide win the West Division again with the same 11-1 record and UT then upsets Alabama in a close game in the SEC Championship Game. Then could those two SEC clubs make it to the playoff? What if LSU loses only to Alabama and misses out on the SEC title game but that is the Tigers' only loss? Clearly it will depend on what happens in the other Power 5 conferences and with Notre Dame.


The Big Ten is +300 on BetOnline NCAA football odds. Few believe reigning conference champion Michigan State will get back to the playoff with only 10 starters returning. Thus your top candidates would be Ohio State (+900 to win it all) and Michigan (+1000) from the Big Ten East Division. As usual, those blood rivals close the regular season against one another, this year in Columbus, so only one of them will have a shot at the Big Ten title and most likely a spot in the playoff.


Just like Ohio State and Michigan are in the much tougher division in the Big Ten, so are Clemson and Florida State together in the ACC Atlantic. The Tigers are +700 to win the national title behind Heisman favorite Deshaun Watson and the Seminoles are +1000. Both schools will be favored in every regular-season game except only one can be (barring a pick'em) when Clemson visits Tallahassee on Oct. 29. The ACC might have a decent shot of getting both in the playoff if that game is close and the Tigers and Seminoles blow out everyone else. The ACC is +375 to win the national championship.


Next is the Big 12 at +550. This is the final season that conference won't have a Big 12 Championship Game, regardless of whether or not it decides to expand. Defending Big 12 champion Oklahoma is a heavy favorite to repeat there and is +1100 to win the national title. TCU (+3300) lost a ton off last year's team that was preseason No. 2, and the entire Baylor program is a mess right now. So it's probably Sooners or bust for the Big 12.


Finally, the Pac-12 is +650. That was the only Power 5 conference left out of last year's playoff. Stanford, behind Heisman Trophy candidate Christian McCaffrey, has the shortest national title odds at +2800. Lot of good teams in the Pac-12 but perhaps no great ones. The Pac-12 has the longest title drought among the Power 5, last winning it all in 2004.


If you are keen on Notre Dame winning it all, you can get an independent school as the winning "conference" at +2000. You also get BYU there, and the Cougars could be sneaky good.


The remaining options are the AAC (+5000), which does house a very good Houston team, Mountain West (+10000), MAC (+20000), Conference USA (+25000) and Sun Belt (+50000).

 

[CNOTES]

2016 Patriot League Preview
August 23, 2016


(STATS) - One week, it might be Fordham running back Chase Edmonds, the next it could be Holy Cross quarterback Peter Pujals.


Could Lehigh's "Big Three" be far behind?


Defenses in the Patriot League are getting pulled in every direction and taxed by tremendous offensive players.


The defenses are asked to just keep up enough to get the ball back to their offense to let it go to work again.


"When you look at the offenses in this league, when you look at the quarterbacks, there's some tremendous skill. It's impossible to defend it all," Holy Cross coach Tom Gilmore said. "I think defenses have to start becoming more and more aggressive, so the offenses don't know what they're doing.


"If you just sit there with base defense, unless you're flat out better than the team you're playing, I think most offenses in this league, if not this country, will pick you apart."


Six of the league's seven teams - all but Georgetown - are returning a senior starting quarterback, a group led by Pujals, Fordham's Kevin Anderson, Colgate's Jake Melville and Lehigh's Nick Shafnisky. And then there are the All-Americans like Edmonds and Holy Cross wide receiver Brendan Flaherty.


To defend the great skill, Patriot teams have to be willing to change the game plan from week to week to stop the different players and styles of offenses.


"You have to be really consistent," Georgetown coach Rob Sgarlata said.


Among the league favorites, defending champion Colgate returns the more complete team over Fordham and Lehigh, but even the Raiders seek improvement on defense in a big way. All three should have excellent offenses in what's been an offensive league.


Following is a team-by-team breakdown of the 2016 Patriot League race and STATS' predicted order of finish:


1. Colgate


2. Fordham


3. Lehigh


4. Holy Cross


5. Bucknell


6. Lafayette


7. Georgetown


---=


TEAM CAPSULES=


1. COLGATE RAIDERS=


LOCATION: Hamilton, New York


STADIUM: Andy Kerr Stadium


COACH: Dan Hunt (14-12 in two seasons at Colgate)


LAST SEASON: 9-5 overall, 6-0 Patriot (1st)


STARTERS RETURNING: 17 (9 offense/8 defense)


THREE KEY LOSSES: John Weber, OG; John Quazza, TE; Ty McCollum, CB


ONE TO WATCH ON OFFENSE: Jake Melville, QB, Sr. (193-for-351, 2,552 yards, 11 TDs, 2 INTs; 186 carries, 1073 yards, 11 TDs)


ONE TO WATCH ON DEFENSE: Pat Afriyie, DE, Jr. (49 TT, 17.5 TFL, 9.5 sacks, 5 QBH, 5 FF)


OTHER KEY PLAYERS: James Holland, TB, Jr.; John Maddaluna III, WR, Sr.; Alex Greenawalt, WR, Jr.; Jordi Dalmau, OG, Jr.; Max Hartzman, C, Jr.; Ryan Paulish, OL, Jr.; Grant Siegel, OL, Sr.; Alex Campbell, NT, Sr.; Victor Steffen, DT, Sr.; Brett Field, DE, Sr.; Kyle Diener, LB, Sr.; Chris Morgan, LB, Sr.; Charles Cairnie, LB, Sr.; Abu Daramy, DB, Fr.; Adam Bridgeforth, CB, Sr.; Jonah Bowman, PK, Sr.


OUTLOOK: The Raiders kept playing close games and kept winning them last season, rolling to a perfect record in the Patriot League and then to two road playoff victories (New Hampshire and James Madison) to reach the FCS quarterfinals. They return 17 starters, their kickers and two 2014 starters, DT Steffen and CB Bridgeforth, who were injured for much of last season. Behind QB Melville's lead, the Raiders averaged a league-high 206.4 rushing yards per game. RB Holland was a late-season standout and could threaten the 1,000-yard mark behind the Raiders' veteran offensive line. Maddaluna (62 receptions, 910 yards, 2 TDs) returns as the No. 1 wide receiver and the Raiders are expecting Greenawalt to break out as well. The defense will be physical as usual, featuring potential All-Americans in DE Afriyie and LB Diener, their leading tackler (129) and this year's preseason Patriot defensive player of the year. But the unit left room for improvement as the Raiders were outscored 401-356 despite enjoying their best season since 2003. With such an excellent returning team, it's curious the Raiders opted for only 10 games, including only four at Andy Kerr Stadium.


SCHEDULE:


Sept. 2, at Syracuse


Sept. 17, at Yale


Sept. 24, at Richmond


Oct. 1, Cornell


Oct. 8, at Lehigh*


Oct. 15, at Bucknell*


Oct. 29, Holy Cross*


Nov. 5, at Fordham*


Nov. 12, Lafayette*


Nov. 19, Georgetown*


* - Patriot League game


---=

2. FORDHAM RAMS=


LOCATION: Bronx, New York


STADIUM: Coffey Field


COACH: Andrew Breiner (first season at Fordham)


LAST SEASON: 9-3 overall, 5-1 Patriot (2nd)


STARTERS RETURNING: 18 (10 offense/8 defense)


THREE KEY LOSSES: Garrick Mayweather, OL; Stephen Hodge, LB; J.Q. Bowers, DB


ONE TO WATCH ON OFFENSE: Chase Edmonds, RB, Jr. (251 carries, 1,648 yards, 20 TDs; 31 receptions, 383 yards, 5 TDs)


ONE TO WATCH ON DEFENSE: Jihaad Pretlow, CB, Sr. (67 TT, 3 TFL, 2 INTs, 12 PBU, 1 FR)


OTHER KEY PLAYERS: Kevin Anderson, QB, Sr.; Kendall Pearcey, RB, Sr.; Corey Caddle, WR, So.; Austin Longi, WR, So.; Robbie Cantelli, WR, Sr.; Phazahn Odom, Sr., TE; Ben Hartman, OL, Jr.; John Boyd, OL, Sr.; Anthony Coyle, OL, Jr.; Marlon Crook, DL, Sr.; Justin Vaughn, DL, Sr.; Manny Adeyeye, DL, Sr.; George Dawson, LB, Sr.; Niko Thorpe, LB, Jr.; Makay Redd, PK, Sr.; Joe Pavlik, P, Sr.


OUTLOOK: Despite the loss of highly successful coach Joe Moorhead to Penn State, the Rams have had a smooth transition under Andrew Breiner, their former offensive coordinator who at 32 has become one of Division I's younger head coaches. It helps that the Rams return 18 starters and the kickers as they seek a second Patriot title in three seasons and a fourth straight appearance in the FCS playoffs. It all starts with All-America RB Edmonds, who has been spectacular in his first two seasons (4,504 all-purpose yards and 49 touchdowns). Plus, opposing defenses have to stay honest or QB Anderson (229-for-342, 3,183 yards, 32 TDs, 10 INTs) will burn them. He knows how to spread the ball as his top five receivers were between 31 and 37 receptions a year ago. The two points of emphasis must be cutting down on sacks (43 allowed last season) and improving a defense that ranked only fifth in the league in both scoring defense and total defense. The defense lost three of its top four tacklers, although it returns two players, LB Thorpe and CB Pretlow, who were Patriot preseason selections. The Rams are happy to be hosting defending champ Colgate on Nov. 5 and then play at Yankee Stadium a week later against Holy Cross.


SCHEDULE:


Sept. 3, at Navy


Sept. 10, Elizabeth City State


Sept. 24, Penn


Oct. 1, at Monmouth


Oct. 8, Lafayette*


Oct. 15, Yale


Oct. 22, Georgetown*


Oct. 29, Lehigh*


Nov. 5, Colgate*


Nov. 12, Holy Cross* (at Yankee Stadium, New York)


Nov. 19, at Bucknell*


* - Patriot League game


---=


3. LEHIGH MOUNTAIN HAWKS=


LOCATION: Bethlehem, Pennsylvania


STADIUM: Goodman Stadium


COACH: Andy Coen (68-46 in 10 seasons at Lehigh)


LAST SEASON: 6-5 overall, 4-2 Patriot (3rd)


STARTERS RETURNING: 14 (8 offense, 6 defense)


THREE KEY LOSSES: Matt Ford, OL; Matt Laub, DL; Olivier Rigaud, CB


ONE TO WATCH ON OFFENSE: Nick Shafnisky, QB, Sr. (196-for-294, 15 TDs, 10 INTs; 151 carries, 674 yards, 12 TDs)


ONE TO WATCH ON DEFENSE: Colton Caslow, MLB, Sr. (95 TT, 8 TFL, 1 sack, 2 PBU, 2 QBH)


OTHER KEY PLAYERS: Dom Bragalone, RB, So.; Troy Pelletier, WR, Jr.; Gatlin Casey, WR, Jr.; Trevor Socarras, WR, Sr.; Derek Knott, WR, Sr.; Tim O'Hara, LT, Jr.; Brandon Short, C, Sr.; Zach Duffy, RT, Sr.; Micah Tennant, LG, Sr.; Tyler Cavenas, DL, Jr.; Jimmy Mitchell, DL, Sr.; Pierce Ripanti, OLB, Sr.; Brandon Leaks, CB, Sr.; Quentin Jones, DB, Jr.; LaQuan Lambert, ROV, R-Sr.; Ed Mish, PK, So.


OUTLOOK: One of the traditional Patriot League powers, Lehigh only lost in the league to Colgate and Fordham last season, and this season it gets the last two champions at home. The Mountain Hawks feature a "Big Three" on offense with QB Shafnisky, RB Bragalone and WR Pelletier. Shafnisky was a touchdown-maker (27) as a junior, Bragalone (1,008 rushing yards, 8 total TDs) was the Patriot League's rookie of the year and Pelletier (78 receptions, 831 yards, 8 TDs) made the All-Patriot first team as a sophomore. While the offense can score in bunches, Lehigh joined Lafayette at the bottom of the Patriot League defensive rankings. Opponents averaged over five yards per carry as well as 451.3 yards and 35.3 points per game. All-Patriot LB Caslow will look to motivate the struggling unit, which gets back Lambert for a fifth season after the standout rover was lost to a season-ending injury in the first game last year. Last year's senior class was the first in more than 20 years to leave campus without winning a Patriot League championship.


SCHEDULE:


Sept. 3, Monmouth


Sept. 10, at Villanova


Sept. 17, at Penn


Sept. 24, at Princeton


Oct. 1, at Yale


Oct. 8, Colgate*


Oct. 15, at Georgetown*


Oct. 22, at Holy Cross*


Oct. 29, Fordham*


Nov. 5, Bucknell*


Nov. 19, at Lafayette*


* - Patriot League game


---=

4. HOLY CROSS CRUSADERS=


LOCATION: Worcester, Massachusetts


STADIUM: Fitton Field


COACH: Tom Gilmore (66-69 in 12 seasons at Holy Cross)


LAST SEASON: 6-5 overall, 3-3 Patriot (4th)


STARTERS RETURNING: 16 (10 offense/6 defense)


THREE KEY LOSSES: Kalif Raymond, WR/RS; Mike Galantini, DT; Matt Bhaya, SS


ONE TO WATCH ON OFFENSE: Peter Pujals, QB, Sr. (286-for-484, 3,195 yards, 28 TDs, 11 INTs; 92 carries, 319 yards, 1 TD)


ONE TO WATCH ON DEFENSE: Dewayne Cameron, DE, Sr. (47 TT, 11 TFL, 7 sacks, 2 PBU, 2 FR)


OTHER KEY PLAYERS: Gabe Guild, TB, Sr.; Brendan Flaherty, WR, Sr.; Jake Wieczorek, WR, Sr.; Lucas Nikolaisen, TE, Sr.; Hunter Hudgins, OT, Sr.; Rob Kosharek, OT, Sr.; James Murray, C, Sr.; Ryan Smith, DE, Sr.; Jack Kutschke, DT, Jr.; Kyle Young, LB, Sr.; Nick McBeath, LB, Jr.; Alim Muhammad, CB, Jr.; Steven Martinez, CB, Sr.; Luke Ford, FS, Sr.


OUTLOOK: After posting a winning season for the first time since 2011, the Crusaders hope to be a title contender with their strong senior class. Leading the way is QB Pujals, who has been outstanding for three straight seasons. His favorite target, Flaherty, posted one of the best seasons by a receiver in league history with 106 receptions for 1,082 yards and 12 TDs last year. The offense lost only one starter and TB Guild is capable of gaining more than his 402 rushing yards of a year ago. Holy Cross outscored opponents 351-249 with its much-improved defense, posting two shutouts and allowing only seven points in two other wins. Some key players are gone from the defense, but DE Cameron returns as a senior leader, and DBs Ford and Muhammad (injured for much of last season) joined him on the Patriot preseason team. LB McBeath was lost at midseason after getting off to a great start, so the defense may overcome some of its graduation losses. With the Fordham game moved to Yankee Stadium, the Crusaders will play only four times at home.


SCHEDULE:


Sept. 3, at Morgan State


Sept. 10, at New Hampshire


Sept. 17, at Albany


Sept. 24, Dartmouth


Oct. 1, at Lafayette*


Oct. 8, Bucknell*


Oct. 15, Harvard


Oct. 22, Lehigh*


Oct. 29, at Colgate*


Nov. 5, at Georgetown*


Nov. 12, Fordham* (at Yankee Stadium, New York)


* - Patriot League game


---=


5. BUCKNELL BISON=


LOCATION: Lewisburg, Pennsylvania


STADIUM: Christy Mathewson-Memorial Stadium


COACH: Joe Susan (28-38 in six seasons at Bucknell; 38-38 overall)


LAST SEASON: 4-7 overall, 1-5 Patriot (6th)


STARTERS RETURNING: 16 (8 offense/8 defense)


THREE KEY LOSSES: Matt DelMauro, RB; Jimmy King, DE; Clayton Ewell, S


ONE TO WATCH ON OFFENSE: Julie'n Davenport, OL, Sr. (FCS All-America first team)


ONE TO WATCH ON DEFENSE: Abdullah Anderson, DT, Jr. (46 TT, 8 TFL, 4.5 sacks, 3 PBU, 1 BK)


OTHER KEY PLAYERS: R.J. Nitti, QB, Sr.; Joey DeFloria, RB, Jr.; Will Carter, WR, Sr.; Alan Butler, WR, So.; Andrew Owers, TE/FB, So.; Devlin Brennan, LG, Sr.; Ned Bent, C, Sr.; Cary Hess, RG, Sr.; Doug Whitlock, DE, Jr.; Ben Schumacher, NG, Sr.; Ben Richard, LB, Jr.; Mark Pyles, LB, Jr.; Bret Berg, S, Sr.; Connor Golden, S, Jr.; Bryan Marine, CB, So.; Colin Jonov, CB, Jr.; Nick O'Brien, CB, Sr.; Alex Pechin, PK/P, So.


OUTLOOK: The schedule is quite similar to last season and the Bison hope to make amends after their win total from 2014 (8-3) was cut in half in a disappointing record. Injuries set them back, but it also gave starter's experience to a high number of players. With four players on the Patriot preseason team (DLs Anderson and Schumacher and LBs Pyles and Richard), the defense remains the strength of the team. It might even overcome the graduation of Ewell, the Patriot League's 2015 defensive player of the year. The defense, which returns 12 of its 14 leading tacklers, surrendered the fewest points and yards in the league. On offense, the Bison averaged 11 fewer points per game a year ago than in 2014. Their veteran line features 6-foot-7, 320-pound LT Davenport and four other seniors who have combined for 62 career starts. QB Nitti enters his third season as the starter and will team with All-Patriot WR Carter, although the running back position has to be figured out (perhaps a committee). Pechin was the Patriot first-team punter as a freshman, averaging 42.1 yards per punt.


SCHEDULE:


Sept. 3, at Marist


Sept. 10, at Duquesne


Sept. 17, Cornell


Sept. 24, VMI


Oct. 8, at Holy Cross*


Oct. 15, Colgate*


Oct. 22, Lafayette*


Oct. 29, at Charleston Southern


Nov. 5, at Lehigh*


Nov. 12, at Georgetown*


Nov. 19, Fordham*


* - Patriot League game


---=

6. LAFAYETTE LEOPARDS=


LOCATION: Easton, Pennsylvania


STADIUM: Fisher Stadium


COACH: Frank Tavani (82-99 in 16 seasons at Lafayette)


LAST SEASON: 1-10 overall, 0-6 Patriot (7th)


STARTERS RETURNING: 16 (9 offense/7 defense)


KEY LOSSES: Mark Dodd, LB; Matt Smalley, CB/KR; Jared Roberts, S/PR


ONE TO WATCH ON OFFENSE: Drew Reed, QB, Sr. (199-for-308, 2,008 yards, 11 TDs, 10 INTs)


ONE TO WATCH ON DEFENSE: Brandon Bryant, LB, Jr. (114 TT, 6.5 TFL, 2 sacks, 2 PBU, 1 FF)


OTHER KEY PLAYERS: Blake Searfoss, QB, Sr.; DeSean Brown, RB, Jr.; C.J. Amill, RB/WR, So.; Joey Chenoweth, WR, So.; Matt Mrazek, WR, Jr.; Cam Smith, LT, Jr.; Connor Staudle, LG, Sr.; Kevin Zataveski, C, Sr.; Nick Zataveski, RT, Sr.; Matt Rothrock, DT, Sr.; Robin Cepeda, DT, Sr.; Collin Albershardt, DE, Sr.; Beau Bosch, DE, Jr.; Jerry Powe, LB, So.; Draeland James, SS, Sr.; Phillip Parham, CB, Jr.; Jacob Bissell, PK, So.; Ryan Forrester, P, Sr.


OUTLOOK: Last season was quite the drop-off for a team that won the Patriot League title in 2013. The injury-plagued Leopards suffered their worst record since 1964 and went winless in league action for the first time. Tavani, the dean of Patriot coaches, seeks a turnaround, and he has a pretty good solution that too often gets overlooked by football fans - the Leopards return four of the five starters on the offensive line and all four starters on the defensive line. They have to put that muscle to good use, of course, but QB Reed quarterbacked them to the 2013 league title as a freshman. Brown (154 carries, 580 yards, 5 TDs) is a dangerous tailback and Chenoweth, Mrazek and Rocco Palumbo form a solid trio of wide receivers. While the defense is experienced up front, the Leopards lost four of last season's top five tacklers, although they return the right one in Bryant, who led the team. Their 4-2-5 defense allowed 28 touchdowns through the air while intercepting only five passes. The Oct. 15 visit to Army West Point is Lafayette's first game against an FBS opponent since 1997, when the Leopards fell just short 38-36 against the Cadets.


SCHEDULE:


Sept. 2, at Central Connecticut State


Sept. 10, Delaware


Sept. 17, at Princeton


Sept. 24, Villanova


Oct. 1, Holy Cross*


Oct. 8, at Fordham*


Oct. 15, at Army West Point


Oct. 22, at Bucknell*


Oct. 29, Georgetown*


Nov. 12, at Colgate*


Nov. 19, Lehigh*


* - Patriot League game


---=

7. GEORGETOWN HOYAS=


LOCATION: Washington, D.C.


STADIUM: Multi-Sport Field


COACH: Rob Sgarlata (7-15 in two seasons at Georgetown)


LAST SEASON: 4-7 overall, 2-4 Patriot (5th)


STARTERS RETURNING: 13 (7 offense/6 defense)


THREE KEY LOSSES: Kyle Nolan, QB; Jo'el Kimpela, RB; Matt Satchell, LB


ONE TO WATCH ON OFFENSE: Justin Hill, WR, Sr. (46 receptions, 636 yards, 6 TDs)


ONE TO WATCH ON DEFENSE: Daniel Yankovich, LB, Jr. (88 TT, 5 TFL, 2 sacks, 2 QBH)


OTHER KEY PLAYERS: Tim Barnes, QB, Sr.; Isaac Ellsworth, RB/KR, Jr.; Matt Buckman, TE, Sr.; Nick James, OL, Jr.; Michael McFarlane, OL, Jr.; Matt Houpert, OL Jr.; Hunter Kiselick, DL, Grad; Phil Novacki, DL, Sr.; Brennen Sawicki, DL, So.; Leo Loughrey, LB, Sr.; David Akere, S, Jr.; Jethro Francois, S, So.; Jelani Williamson, CB, Jr.; Henry Darmstadter, PK, Sr.


OUTLOOK: In a veteran-filled league this season, Georgetown has the fewest returning starters on top of being the only program which doesn't offer scholarships. The Hoyas were competitive last season, losing three league games by seven points or less, and they built some younger depth. QB Barnes (10-for-22, 79 yards) has waited for his turn behind Nolan and will run the offense as a senior. His go-to targets are WR Hill and TE Buckman (32 receptions, 251 yards, 4 TDs), the latter whom made the Patriot League preseason team. The defense must retool, but DT Sawicki and S Francis are sophomores to build around and LB Yankovich, the Hoyas' second-leading tackler last year, has two seasons of eligibility remaining. Aside from a trip to Harvard, the non-conference schedule is manageable.


SCHEDULE:


Sept. 3, Davidson


Sept. 10, at Marist


Sept. 24, Columbia


Sept. 30, at Harvard


Oct. 8, Princeton


Oct. 15, Lehigh*


Oct. 22, at Fordham*


Oct. 29, at Lafayette*


Nov. 5, Holy Cross*


Nov. 12, Bucknell*


Nov. 19, at Colgate*


* - Patriot League game