Cnotes Previewing College Football 2016 !

[CNOTES]

2016 College Football Betting Preview: Houston Cougars


Could the Houston Cougars really compete for a national title in just the second year under head coach Tom Herman? While that would be quite the story, its certainly a storyline that we could find coming true in January. The Houston Cougars are loaded, especially on the offensive side of the football.


The Cougars are going to put together a solid core of defensive players, because we know Tom Herman understands defense is needed to win a title. Let’s take a look at the 2016 College Football Betting Preview for the Houston Cougars.


Cougars Offense Locked and Loaded
Greg Ward is back and is one of the best quarterbacks in all of college football. Ward can throw the football, and certainly can run the football when needed. The Cougars have lost running back Kenneth Farrow, who was a load a season ago, but Brandon Wilson will be put in a great situation to carry the football.


Steven Dunbar and Chance Allen, along with Dondald Gage and Tyler McCloskey should be in line for plenty of opportunities to get into the end zone with the air attack of the Cougars, and the light schedule they will play.

Houston 5 Returnees on Defense
The Houston Cougars have five guys returning to the lineup on the defensive side. B.J Singleton is entering his senior season, and he has put together a heck of a career for the Cougars. Cameron Malveaux and Tyus Bowser also return, with Steven Taylor and cornerback Brandon Wilson.


The scheme will change for the Cougars this season, and look for them to limit the amount of times they play in complete offensive shoot-outs. Houston needs their defense to shine if they want to do the unthinkable.


Cougars 2016 Schedule
The Houston Cougars have one of the lightest schedules in all of college football for a team that will contend for a national title. The toughest by far, is the Cougars have a monstrous season opener.


They will take on another national title contender in the Oklahoma Sooners. Following that, they have a game with LaMar and a road trips to Cincinnati and Texas State. The Cougars final game of September is at home with the UConn Huskies.


The month of October sees a road game at Navy, followed by home game against Tulsa, a trip to SMU and a home game against Central Florida. The final three games of the season for Houston are at home with Tulsa, Louisville, and on the road at Memphis.

Betting on the Houston Cougars
It’s certainly worth the money you have to bet on the Houston Cougars in 2016. The offense is going to be nearly unstoppable, the defense has improved, and the head coach for Houston has a great coaching mind.


The Cougars have a win total of 9.5 on the season at Bookmaker. It’s hard to project any other scenario with the Houston Cougars where they finish under 9.5. Oklahoma will be a huge test, but the American Conference is there for the taking. You can grab great odds to pick the Houston Cougars to win the national title, as you can bet them at 75/1.


Many do not think the Cougars will get the call playing the soft schedule they have. If the Cougars knock off Oklahoma in the season opener, look for odds to certainly change, and swing towards Houston’s way.

 

[CNOTES]

2016 College Football Betting Preseason Picks & Predictions


The NCAA Football season is right around the corner, and now is the time to jump on betting on the games, and the future of the season. Alabama is the defending champion, and they are going to be loaded once again.


Clemson may be just as good, and likely better than last season, and they were the runner up a season ago. There are several contenders in College Football. Let’s take a look at the 2016 College Football Betting Preseason Picks and Predictions.


The Alabama Crimson Tide are the favorites to repeat as champions. Nick Saban has himself a team once again, but as we all know – the SEC is loaded once again. The Alabama Crimson Tide are listed at 7/1 odds to win the national championship.


Second on the list of potential national champions is the Ohio State Buckeyes. Urban Meyer has his team back on the national title picture after a season off from making it into the college football playoff. The Buckeyes have a new starting running back, but should still be the class of the Big Ten. You can grab the Ohio State Buckeyes to win the national championship at 15/2.


The Clemson Tigers are third on the list. Clemson is the defending runner up in college football. The Tigers are listed 8/1 to win the national title. Clemson has much of their team back from a season ago, and you know Dabo Swinney will have his team ready to roll.


The next three on the list are the LSU Tigers, Michigan Wolverines and Oklahoma Sooners. All three of these teams are listed at 12/1. Les Miles is back as the head coach for the LSU Tigers, following the season full of drama at the helm in Baton Rouge. Michigan is back in the national title picture, and will compete with Ohio State.


The Wolverines continue to get top notch recruits. Finally, the Oklahoma Sooners reached the Final Four a season ago, and with much of their top offensive players back, should be in good shape out of the Big 12.


When you are betting on college football, it’s usually a good idea to wager on one of the top favorites in the NCAA Football. The Alabama Crimson Tide are always a good choice to win a national championship, and as you know, are the favorite this season.


In the end, if you are not going to take the Alabama Crimson Tide one of the best bets to win it all is the Oklahoma Sooners at 12/1.


There is a good look at the 2016 College Football Betting Preseason Picks & Predictions.


Top 15 Team Previews
Alabama
Florida State
Ohio State
Clemson
Michigan
Oklahoma
Tennessee
Notre Dame
LSU
Ole Miss
Washington
Stanford
Michigan State
UCLA
Houston

 

[CNOTES]

2016 Mountain West Preview


July 24, 2016


We’re Back, Again


For the ninth consecutive year, the Mountain West sent at least five teams into postseason bowl games when eight participants hit the alleys last season. The MWC has earned 77 bowl bids since 1999 and holds a 42-35 (.546) all-time record in those contests.


However, its been five seasons since the Mountain West finished ending the bowls with a winning campaign as they stand just 13-18 in that span.


With a 3-4 mark in postseason play last season, marking the fourth year in a row the league failed to post a winning bowl record (9-14 last four seasons).




Newbies


The Mountain West has welcomed 26 new head coaches over the last 17 seasons, eleven of which played in a bowl game in their rookie year.


Former BYU head coach Gary Crowton in 2001, and Boise State boss Bryan Harsin in 2014, posted the most wins with 12 victories in their inaugural year.


Harsin also joined Utah State’s Matt Wells when he became the second coach to conclude his inaugural season by leading his team to the Mountain West Championship Game and a bowl appearance.


Two new head coaches debut this season: Nick Rolovich at Hawaii, and Tim Cramsey at Nevada.

Way Up There


The Mountain West Conference is appropriately named with no less than 8 of the twelve schools located more than 2,000 feet above sea level, including all 6 in the MWC Mountain Division.


Wyoming’s War Memorial stadium scales the highest at 7,215 feet, with Air Force’s Falcon Stadium also better than a mile high at 6,621 feet.

Note: Numbers following team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, along with the number of returning linemen, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback.

2016 MWC MOUNTAIN PREVIEW


AIR FORCE (Offense – *5/2, Defense – 8/2, 65 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: SUNNY SKIES


With 18 wins the last two seasons – including a Mountain Division title – after posting just 2 wins in 2013, it’s safe to say the skies have brightened for the Flyboys. Despite the loss of QB Nate Romine in the 2nd game of the season last year, AFA still managed to improve 32 YPG on offense and 41 YPG on defense. The good news is Romine is back in 2016 with a unit that allowed the fewest sacks last season. Even better, an aggressive defense returns 8 starters from a vastly improved unit. And for comparison sake: the Falcons faced Michigan State in their primary FBS non-con game in 2015. They will face Georgia State this year.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Falcons are 2-10 ATS in games after facing Army and Navy since 2010.


PLAY AGAINST: at Wyoming (10/8)




BOISE STATE (Offense – *8/4, Defense – 5/0, 45 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: ZIG ZAG


ESPN’s Darren Rovell probably put it best when he stated, “Boise State is college football’s Gonzaga. Their name says they’re the little guys. They can play with the best.” The Broncos proved it’s practically impossible to improve on a 12-win season when they limped home with 9 wins last year despite improving their stats on both sides of the ball, marking only the 4th time in the last 17 years they failed to wins 10 games or more. FYI: in the 4 seasons following a non-10 win campaign, Boise went 47-6. The good news, though, is blue-chip SO QB Brett Rypien, the MWC Freshman of the Year and Poinsettia Bowl MVP with 3,350 yards and 20 TDs), returns along with five of last year’s top seven wide receivers. Go Zags... err Broncos.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Broncos are 19-2 SU and 13-6 ATS In games where they outyard opponents under head coach Bryan Harsin.


PLAY ON: at New Mexico (10/7)



COLORADO STATE (Offense – *6/4, Defense – 4/2, 45 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: PRO BOBO


It was mission accomplished last season for new head coach Mike Bobo when he led his Rams to a 3rd straight bowl game. Bobo’s no-huddle, hurry-up attack preaches balance with a heavy emphasis on running the ball. "We want to run our offense and still be pro-style, not being in the shotgun all the time,” insists Bobo. And well balanced they were, with nearly 50% of their yards last year coming on the ground. This will mark the final season at Hughes Stadium for CSU, the Rams’ home since 1968, as they move into a new $220M complex next year. Bobo’s mission this season, should he decide to accept it: a Mountain West Conference championship for the first time since 2002.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Rams are 0-18 SU all-time versus ranked opponents.

PLAY ON: vs. Colorado (9/2)




NEW MEXICO (Offense – *5/2, Defense – 10/4, 48 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: HOUND DOGS


The free fall appears over. As we proclaimed on this page last year, the Lobos’ 8-year bowl drought came to an end when Bob Davie’s troops won 7 games thanks largely in part to a defense that improved 8 points and 80 yards per game in 2015. It seems like yesterday that New Mexico was mired in a drought when they won just 3 games over a three-year span (2009-11). The good news is the same defense returns 10 starters, making them bowl fodder once again this season. With both starting QBs and star RB Teriyon Gipson back, if the defense holds serve, the Lobos could be party hounds once again during the holidays this year.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Lobos have been outscored 4.8 PPG under Davie. They had been outscored 26.0 PPG the three seasons prior to his arrival.

PLAY AGAINST: at Utah State (11/12)




UTAH STATE (Offense – *10/4, Defense – 3/1, 40 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: MISSION BOUND


It’s safe to say that for a team that averaged 10 wins per season from 2012-2014, and then slumped to 6 victories last year, the Aggies will be a team on a mission in 2016. They field one of the most even breakdowns of players by class on the roster with 27 seniors, 25 juniors, 21 sophomores and 28 freshmen. Believe it or not, QB Chuckie Keeton is not listed among the breakdown as he has finally departed. Is it us, or does it seem like Chuckie was here during the entire Obama administration? Utah State is also tasked with having to replace both offensive and defensive coordinators for the 2nd straight year. So what else is new?

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Aggies are 43-24 since 2011, with only 9 losses by more than 7 points.

PLAY ON: as a dog vs. San Diego State (10/28)




WYOMING (Offense – 9/4, Defense – 8/1, 50 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: BAPTIZED BY FIRE


The makeup of the 2016 Cowboy roster, while still relatively young, is much different than the Cowboy team from a year ago that returned only 10 starters and 33 letter winners. The 2016 Cowboy roster will feature 20 seniors, half of who have been regular starters during their careers. “We have a lot of returning players,” said head coach Craig Bohl. “I think we are going to have a more seasoned, more mature football team this coming season than what we had last year when we played a high number (26) of freshmen.” Of those 26 freshmen that played, 15 started at least one game and 11 started multiple games in 2015. Color the Cowboys dangerous in 2016.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The last time the Cowboys suffered four losing seasons in a row was in 2003. They won the Las Vegas Bowl the following season.


PLAY ON: at New Mexico (11/26) - *Key




2016 MWC WEST PREVIEW


FRESNO STATE (Offense – *7/2, Defense – 5/1, 36 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: DERUYTER ON DE HOT SEAT


On the heels of a disappointing 3-win effort last season, Fresno has now tasted back-to-back losing campaigns. And with it, the natives are growing restless. That’s because after a 19-4 start under head coach Tim DeRuyter, the Bulldogs are just 10-19 since. In an effort to shake things up, DeRuyter brings in new offensive and defensive coordinators. Cycling through 4 QB’s last year (you know the saying: when you have 4 QB’s, you have none), including a freshman signal caller and two freshmen wide receivers – along with a defense ravaged by injuries – means the benefits should be plenty this season after Fresno was force-fed rebuilding in 2015. Let’s hope it helps gets the Bulldogs back to where they were, sooner than later.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Bulldogs were the worst team in the nation in tackles allowed for a loss last season.

PLAY ON: at Colorado State (11/5)



HAWAII (Offense – *9/4, Defense – 6/2, 52 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: LET THE JOURNEY BEGIN


After 11 wins in four seasons, the Norm Chow era is over in Hawaii. Just when it appeared improvement was in the making under Chow – the Warriors’ losses in 2013-14 were by 11.4 PPG, as opposed to 31.1 PPG in his first year – UH went postal with 10 defeats coming by 26.4 PPG last season. Enter new head coach Nick Rolovich, a former UH quarterback. Three games in the first four weeks versus Power 5 foes in Australia, Michigan and Arizona will certainly put an experienced OL to the test, one that featured 11 different combinations last year due to injuries. Thus, its no wonder Hawaii was the worst team in the land in time of possession last year. With the offense in good hands with nine starters returning, the defense will rely heavily on DE Kennedy Tulimasealii – the MWC leader in tackles for a loss last year (18.5) - provided he’s on the roster. Tulimasealii was arrested two times in two weeks in April and is facing six criminal charges at press time. He is expected to miss UH’s season-opener on Aug. 27 in Australia. The Warriors depart on Aug. 20, four days ahead of his sentencing hearing. Stay tuned.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Rainbow Warriors will have flown 10,000 miles before playing their first home game this season.

PLAY AGAINST: vs. New Mexico (10/29)




NEVADA (Offense – *9/5, Defense – 5/1, 39 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: CRAM SESSION


After coping with an offense in decline during each of his three years with the program, Nevada head coach Brian Polian decided a shakeup was in order. New OC Tim Cramsey arrives in Reno after a wildly successful run at Montana State, where he engineered a juggernaut offense that scored 41.9 points per game and ranked third in FCS, averaging nearly 520 yards of total offense. Cramsey, who played and coached under Chip Kelly at New Hampshire, will welcome Penn State transfer RB Akeel Lynch, who teams with James Butler (1,346 yards on 6.4 YPR) to form a powerful tandem. With the top 4 wide receivers returning for QB Skyler Stewart, the Wolf Pack attack should be on the improve.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Wolf Pack face only three opponents that owned a winning record last season.


PLAY ON: at UNLV (11/26)




SAN DIEGO STATE (Offense – 7/3, Defense – 7/1, 42 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: BLUE SKIES IN SAN DIEGO


The Aztecs captured the MWC championship when they outscored and outyarded conference foes, +22.4 and +176 YPG, respectively last season. In the process, the defense allowed the 2nd fewest plays per game (61.7), and led the nation in turnover margin (+1.57) last year. The formula for success is simple, according to assistant and former UNLV coach Bobby Hauck. “You’ve got to come and go to work here to play on this team. You have to have a bit of a blue-collar mentality.” With 6 first-team All-Mountain West selections back from the only group in the nation that won every regular season conference game by double-digits in 2015, including RB Donnel Pumphrey – the reigning MWC Offensive Player of the Year - sights are set on a New Year’s Six bowl berth this season.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Under Long, the Aztecs are 9-11 SU and 5-10 ATS in their first 4 games of the season, and 17-3 SU and 13-5-2 ATS in their final 4 games.


PLAY AGAINST: at Northern Illinois (9/17)



SAN JOSE STATE (Offense – *8/4, Defense – 7/3, 37 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: CONCRETE BLOCKS


The building blocks continue to grow under head coach Ron Caragher as another solid recruiting class yielded 11 more 3-star recruits. That comes on the heels of a Top 60 class in 2015 that landed a whopping 22 3-star recruits, 11 of which are DBs. Back this year is starting QB Kenny Potter, along with his top two WRs, leading RB and four OL who have made 74 starts. In addition, star TE Billy Freeman, a four-year starter who led the team in receptions, receiving yards and touchdowns in 2015, makes everyone’s job on offense a lot easier. Meanwhile, new DC Ron English, former Eastern Michigan mentor, replaces Al Borges. English is in charge of patching a defense that has allowed more than 5 yards per rush each of the last three seasons. If he does, another bowl game could be in the offing.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Spartans are 8-1 ATS versus opponents off a SU underdog win, including 5-0 SUATS the last 5.


PLAY ON: vs. Nevada (10/15)




UNLV (Offense – 6/3, Defense – 7/2, 48 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: WHAT HAPPENS HERE STAYS HERE


After a tumultuous 29-81 run from 2005-2014, much welcomed second-year coach Tony Sanchez has UNLV trending in the right direction. The Rebels, who showed on-field progress while improving their stats on both sides of the ball, inked former Nebraska quarterback Johnny Stanton, who tossed for 3,471 yards and 27 TDs as a JUCO last season. With former Nebraska assistant coach Barney Cotton now UNLV’s OC, Stanton should fit like a glove. And so should a bevy of returning talent. Don’t tell anyone but 5 OL with starting experience, the top 3 RBs, 3 of the top four WRs, 4 of the top five DL, 3 of the top four LBs, and 5 of the top seven DBs are back.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Rebels have enjoyed just one winning season the last 15 years.


PLAY AGAINST: as a favorite at Hawaii (10/15)

 

[CNOTES]

ACC Predictions
July 24, 2016


Duke OVER 5.5 (-110): This is the number I saw when South Point sent out its season win total openers. At 5Dimes.eu offshore, the Blue Devils are at six with the ‘over’ paying a nice +125 return. The Westgate doesn’t have a number for Duke yet, nor do several other offshores I checked.


This might be because a number of middle-of-the-pack schools in Power Five conferences aren’t on the board, or it might be due to the uncertain status of quarterback Thomas Sirk. Whatever the case, I’m good with ‘over’ 5.5 or six because I’m confident that David Cutcliffe’s team wins at least seven, possibly more.


The Blue Devils have won at least six in the regular season, which is all that matters for these sorts of bets, in four consecutive seasons. In fact, they’ve won 10, 9 and 7 over the last three years. Cutcliffe’s squad went 8-5 in 2015 after beating Indiana by a 44-41 count in a thrilling overtime battle at the Pinstripe Bowl in the Bronx. (Quick Reminder: Duke should’ve gone 9-4 last season if the replay officials would’ve accurately reversed Miami’s incredible walk-off kick return for a TD in which one UM player was clearly down before making a lateral.)


Duke returns 12 starters, six on each side of the ball. Sirk tore his Achilles in February, but Cutcliffe is so confident he’ll be ready for the season opener that he sent the senior signal caller to ACC Media Days. In 12 starts last year, Sirk completed 58.8 percent of his passes for 2,625 yards with a 16/8 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He also rushed for a team-best 803 yards and eight TDs, averaging 4.9 yards per carry.


If Sirk’s Achilles doesn’t cooperate, junior QB Parker Boehme has some experience. Boehme connected on 43-of-78 throws (55.1%) last year for 579 yards with a 2/1 TD-INT ratio. Like Sirk, he’s also a solid runner who rushed for 181 yards and five TDs while averaging 4.0 YPC.


RBs Jela Duncan (6.9 YPC) and Shaun Wilson (5.0 YPC) comprise a solid 1-2 punch in the backfield, while WRs T.J. Rahming and Anthony Nash are back in the fold after combining to catch 75 balls for more than 1,000 receiving yards.


On defense, Duke brings back five of its top seven tacklers. As for special teams, DeVon Edwards returned three kicks for TDs last season, while Wilson had another that went for 98 yards.


The schedule gets tougher with the addition of road games at Notre Dame and at Louisville (on a short week) in place of Tulane and Boston College. Nevertheless, I see four easy wins at home over North Carolina Central, Wake Forest, Virginia and Army.


I only see two games in which I’m extremely confident will be losses (at Notre Dame and at Louisville). That leaves us at 4-2 with six games left to get 2-3 wins (need 7 to cash ‘over’ 6 at +125 via 5Dimes.eu).


Duke will be an underdog at Northwestern, but it’s not as if that’s a game the Blue Devils can’t win. The Wildcats won 19-10 in Durham last year, but Duke was +56 in yardage and lost the turnover battle by one. On Oct. 29, Duke will visit The Flats in Midtown Atlanta to face Ga. Tech. Cutcliffe’s bunch won 31-25 at Bobby Dodd Stadium in 2014 and captured a 34-20 triumph over the Yellow Jackets at home last season. Sure, Duke is a likely underdog in both instances, but a win in either spot certainly isn’t out of the question.


The two remaining home games are against Va. Tech and North Carolina. Duke has played three straight nail-biters against the Hokies that have been decided by six combined points. Duke won 13-10 in Blacksburg as a 12.5-point road underdog in 2013. Then in 2014, Va. Tech slipped past the Blue Devils in Durham, 17-16. As a three-point underdog at Lane Stadium last season, Duke captured a 45-43 victory in four overtimes. The Blue Devils prevailed in the marathon contest despite being -3 in the turnover department.


Duke beat arch-rival UNC in 2012 and 2013, but the Tar Heels have won the last two meetings in blowout fashion. They’ll square off at Wallace Wade Stadium on a Thursday night, Nov. 10.


Duke closes the regular season with games at Pittsburgh and at Miami. The Blue Devils spanked the Hurricanes 48-30 in 2013, but lost in South Florida by a 22-10 count two seasons ago. As noted above, UM pulled out a miracle win last year on a crazy walk-off kick return that shouldn’t have been a touchdown. Duke held 440-391 and 34-21 advantages in totals yards and first downs, respectively. Obviously, it’ll be a huge revenge spot for the Blue Devils, who at least won’t have to deal with the stifling heat in a game played on Nov. 26 in Miami.


Since Pittsburgh joined the ACC, it has faced Duke three times. In ’13, the Panthers won a 58-55 decision at Duke. Then in ’14, the Blue Devils went to Heinz Field and collected a 51-48 triumph in double overtime. This year Duke will be looking to avenge a 31-13 home loss to Pitt from last season.


In conclusion, I trust Cutcliffe. I think Duke will have the head-coaching advantage in nine of its 12 games. I’ll call it a push when he matches wits with Brian Kelly of Notre Dame, Bobby Petrino of Louisville and Larry Fedora of UNC.


I think Duke goes 7-5 or better and we’ll cash this ‘over’ ticket.

**The rest of the ACC**


-- I think the ACC’s Atlantic Division will boil down to Clemson at FSU on Oct. 29. At this point in July, I give Clemson the slight edge based on the huge advantage I see at the QB position, one that I believe outweighs the fact that this game will be played in Tallahassee. I think Clemson will have the most explosive offense in the nation with QB Deshaun Watson, RB Wayne Gallman and a group of WRs that might be the best in the country (with the possible exceptions of the wideouts at Texas A&M and Alabama).


-- I think FSU goes 10-2, losing at Louisville in Week 3 and to Clemson. There are other games that will see the Seminoles tested and if they don’t get quality QB play, that 10-2 could easily turn to 9-3 or even 8-4. Jimbo Fisher’s team will get stern tests in Orlando against Ole Miss, at Miami in early October when the heat is still a major factor and against Florida at home in the regular-season finale. There’s two other potential testers – at South Florida the week after the game at Louisville and then UNC at home the following week.


-- Clemson won’t go undefeated. I’ll call for its loss to come at Ga. Tech on a Thursday night. The Tigers have dropped five in a row to the Yellow Jackets at Bobby Dodd. They last tasted victory on The Flats in 2003.


-- Louisville will be a Top-20 team, but it will lose at Clemson and at Houston. I think Petrino’s squad will get tripped up once more somewhere Obviously, it could be against FSU, but I’m calling for the U of L upset there. Therefore, I’ll say the Cardinals go down at Boston College on Nov. 5.


-- Speaking of BC, it is the only other Atlantic school I have going bowling. I think the Eagles, based on immense improvement from the QB position that’ll be provided by Kentucky grad transfer Patrick Towles, will finish 7-5.


-- I think the ACC Coastal teams are going to beat each other up all year. The winner will likely have at least two conference defeats. Miami and UNC are the front runners. Going off the odds at 5Dimes.eu, if you wager the same amount on the Hurricanes (+190) and Tar Heels (+375), you’ll earn a profit (and a nice one if it’s UNC) if one of those schools makes it to the ACC Championship Game. I think it’ll be Miami, which has stunningly NEVER made it to the ACC Championship Game since its inception in 2005.

 

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[CNOTES]

SEC West Outlook
July 26, 2016




1 - Alabama: I think Nick Saban’s team goes 11-1 overall, 7-1 in SEC play. I have the loss coming at LSU. I usually don’t make bold predictions for teams with question marks at the QB position, but Saban and OC Lane Kiffin have proven in back-to-back years that that factor doesn’t apply to the Tide. Somehow Kiffin turned Blake Sims into an outstanding SEC QB (sure, Amari Cooper helped the cause) that led his team to the first College Football Playoff. Then in 2015, Jacob Coker was thriving by the start of November and played great in the win over Clemson in the CFP finals.


There are certainly a slew of challenging spots on Alabama’s schedule, including all four road games (at Ole Miss, at Arkansas, at Tennessee and at LSU). There’s also the opener vs. USC, but that game is at Jerry World (AKA: Bryant-Denny West) where ‘Bama has handed out beatdowns to the likes of Michigan, Wisconsin and Michigan St. Whoever gets the nod at QB, he’ll have talent galore to throw to. Calvin Ridley might be the country’s best WR and he’s only a true sophomore. There’s also O.J. Howard, one of the best TEs in the nation, while WRs ArDarius Stewart and Ruben Foster are going to be NFL players, too. The defense loses Kirby Smart, but Jeremy Pruitt is the perfect replacement after helping FSU win the national title in 2013. Pruitt was at Alabama from 2007-2012. This unit will be led by Jonathan Allen (12.5 sacks), Tim Williams (10 sacks) and Eddie Jackson (6 INT’s). I have Alabama beating Florida at the SEC Championship Game.

2 - LSU: I have LSU going 10-2 overall, 6-2 in SEC play. The Tigers bring back eight starters on offense and nine on defense. Yet again, however, the QB position is one of concern (at least in my mind). Junior Brandon Harris is the clear-cut starter who completed 53.8 percent of his passes for 2,165 yards with a 13/6 TD-INT ratio last year. He had four rushing TDs. Harris has a great offensive line, a future Pro-Bowl RB in Leonard Fournette and two WRs (Malachi Dupre and Travin Dural) who are potential first-round picks. Les Miles made a great DC hire in snatching Dave Aranda away from Wisconsin. Aranda fielded great defenses for the Badgers (13.7 PPG LY) and he’ll be coaching much better talent in Baton Rouge. I have the Tigers losing at Florida and at Arkansas.


3 - Ole Miss: I think Ole Miss goes 9-3 overall, 6-2 in the SEC. The Rebels have the best QB in the league in Chad ‘Swag’ Kelly, who connected on 65.1 percent of his throws for 4,042 yards with a 31/13 TD-INT ratio. Kelly also rushed for 663 yards (before the negative yardage for sacks brought that number down to 500) and 10 TDs. Hugh Freeze’s program has spent the offseason immersed in turmoil, losing three players to the first round of the NFL Draft. On a night that should’ve been a celebration and tribute to the success of Freeze’s tenure turned into an indictment and conviction – at least in the court of public opinion – of the Rebels for (allegedly) taking short cuts on the recruiting trail like many of their rivals had suspected since his arrival. Nevertheless, probation (at least in the form of a bowl ban) has yet to arrive and a talented roster remains in Oxford.


I have Ole Miss losing vs. FSU (in Orlando), vs. Alabama and at LSU. Now the Rebels can certainly beat the Seminoles, but they could also lose games that I have them winning (at Arkansas and at Texas A&M). I only mention that (in what probably appears to be backtracking) because I’m not going to play Ole Miss ‘over’ for its win total because 9-3 could easily be 8-4 instead.

4 - Texas A&M: I have the Aggies going 9-3 overall and 5-3 in SEC action. I covered just about everything with Sumlin’s fifth team earlier.


5 - Arkansas: I think the Hogs finish 8-4 overall, 5-3 in league play. I’m not overly confident in this prediction simply because I haven’t seen enough of Austin Allen, the starting QB who is replacing his older brother. Speaking of Brandon Allen, a sixth-round pick by the Jaguars, what a two-year run he had for Bret Bielema’s teams by posting a 50/13 TD-INT ratio.


The Razorbacks return five starters on offense and nine on defense from last year’s team which finished 8-5. They lost three one-possession games in ’15, losing 16-12 at home to Toledo, in addition to a second straight overtime loss to Texas A&M in Arlington. They also dropped a 51-50 decision at home to Mississippi State on a night when Allen and Dak Prescott produced eye-opening performances. Arkansas loses workhorse RB Alex Collins, but there are several talented RBs ready to pick up the slack. The Hogs might have the most underrated set of WRs in the nation. Drew Morgan is off a breakout campaign, Dominique Reed came on strong late last year and Keon Hatcher is back from a season-ending injury.


When the Hogs host Ole Miss on Oct. 15, they’ll be playing their seventh game in seven weeks, while the Rebels will be off a bye with two weeks to prepare for a huge revenge game. Then the next week at home vs. Auburn, the Tigers will be off an open date. I have the Razorbacks losing at TCU, vs. Texas A&M, vs. Alabama and vs. Ole Miss. I have them finishing strong for a third straight season with five consecutive wins down the stretch, including home scalps of Florida and LSU.

6 - Mississippi State: The Dak Prescott Era is over and that’s a bad thing for Dan Mullen and the Bulldogs. It’s also why we saw Mullen trying to get the Miami job last December. I see MSU’s six-year streak of postseason appearances ending when it limps to a 5-7 record. The Bulldogs have won 19 games the last two seasons, but they return only five starters on offense and six on defense. If you’re going to venture West in non-conference play, it isn’t ideal to go play at altitude in Utah. Furthermore, if Mullen had his druthers, the Bulldogs wouldn’t travel to Provo to play BYU on a short week of preparation (Friday night) off a tough SEC game vs. Auburn. MSU will have its hands full with Taysom Hill, Jamaal Williams and Co. on Oct. 14.

7 - Auburn: We detailed what we believe will be a long season on The Plains.

 

[CNOTES]

SEC East Outlook
July 26, 2016



1 - Florida: I have UF going 9-3 overall, 6-2 in SEC play. I have the same prediction for Georgia, with the Gators and Bulldogs taking one of their defeats in non-conference action at FSU and vs. North Carolina (at the Georgia Dome), respectively. I also have Tennessee going 9-3, but it will take all of its losses in succession and against SEC foes (at UGA, at Texas A&M and vs. Alabama). By virtue of a win over UGA in Jacksonville, that will give Florida a second straight SEC East title.


The Gators went 10-4 in Jim McElwain’s first season, but they lost three straight by double-digit margins to close the year. In short, the offense was an unmitigated disaster after Will Grier was suspended when UF was 6-0 going into a road game at LSU. UF has six starters back on each side of the ball. I was at The Swamp for the Orange & Blue Game in the spring, and it was evident that McElwain is going to have improved QB play in 2016. Luke Del Rio, the son of the Raiders’ coach who sat out last season after transferring from Oregon State, hit 10-of-11 throws for two TDs without an interception. Purdue grad transfer Austin Appleby will be an experienced back-up, providing the Gators with two signal callers that are major upgrades over Treon Harris, who elected to get a fresh start and transfer elsewhere on July 25. Grier, who couldn’t have played until Week 7 anyway, also transferred to West Virginia.


As usual, the defense is loaded with a pair of preseason All-Americans in junior CB Jalen Tabor and senior LB Jarrad Davis. Senior safety Marcus Maye was a second-team All-SEC selection last year when he produced 82 tackles, five forced fumbles and two interceptions. This prediction for UF is based on the presumed return of sophomore WR and special-teams ace Antonio Callaway, who has been on indefinite suspension since the spring. He is back in school and able to use the team’s facilities, but he’s yet to be fully reinstated. Callaway, who had 35 receptions for 678 yards and four TDs as a true freshman, could be looking at a suspension of a few games, but the Gators open at home vs. UMass, UK and North Texas. Callaway also had a TD pass and two punt returns for TDs in 2015.


Though it’s the furthest thing from a given (to say the least!), I think Tennessee finally gets a victory over UF at Neyland Stadium (AKA: Swamp North) in Week 4. However, I see the Gators responding with a four-game winning streak before losing at Arkansas. If Florida is getting quality QB play and FSU doesn’t get solid production from that position this year, the Gators can undoubtedly win at Doak Campbell Stadium in the regular-season finale. But for now, I’ll go with FSU in that spot.

2 - Georgia: The Kirby Smart Era has arrived. Will he act like a veteran head coach and slowly bring along true freshman QB Jacob Eason, or will he brazenly hand over the keys from the outset to the talented signal caller out of Washington (state)? I’ve opted – at least for now – to go with UNC over UGA in Week 1 due to the uncertainty of whom the Bulldogs will start at QB and the health of RBs Nick Chubb and Sony Michel. Chubb was averaging 8.1 YPC before suffering a serious knee injury at UT in early October. If he’s back to 100 percent, he’ll be one of the nation’s best backs again. If the Vols beat Florida, UGA will catch them in Athens in a vintage letdown spot after snapping an 11-game losing streak to their arch rival. I think UGA falls at Ole Miss in Week 4 and as previously mentioned, vs. Florida in Jacksonville.

3 - Tennessee: There’s no doubt the Vols are the Summer 2016 winners. UT had not won more than seven games since 2007 until going 9-4 last season. Butch Jones’s team brings back nine starters on offense and eight on defense. This fact leaves me somewhat confident that we won’t have to listen to all of Jones’s different statistical breakdowns of how inexperienced his first three teams were. These nonsensical rants often included percentages of how many players had never stepped foot on an airplane prior to certain road games. They were pathetic built-in excuses to forgive his team if it came up short (in games that weren’t even played yet!).


Anyway, you can look back at the ’15 version of UT in two different ways. On one hand, you can note that the Vols blew double-digit leads in three of four defeats. In the other loss, they led at Alabama, the eventual national champion, in the final two minutes. Using that train of thought, you could argue that Tennessee was very close to being a contender for a playoff berth. On the other hand, you could point at Jones’s horrible in-game coaching decisions and questionable play-calling at crunch time of the tight games as the reasons for those losses.


You could also note that UT’s November schedule is always weak (featuring games against Kentucky, Vandy and a cupcake non-conference foe), so was its strong finish an accurate indicator of great things on the horizon? UT won at Kentucky by a 52-21 score, but it slipped past the worst South Carolina team in a decade by just a 27-24 count in a home game in which the Gamecocks were in field-goal range in the final minute before coughing up a fumble. Then the Vols beat a North Texas team that went 1-11 by a 24-0 score at home. Next, they won 19-8 at Missouri, 53-28 vs. Vandy and 45-6 over Northwestern at the Outback Bowl. Five of those six teams had losing records, while Northwestern was a team that lost 38-0 at Michigan and 40-10 at home vs. Iowa.


The roster is loaded with talent, no doubt about it. Cam Sutton is a lockdown cornerback and one of the SEC’s best punt returners, Jalen Reeves-Maybin is one of the SEC’s best LBs, Derek Barnett is one of country’s top pass rushers, Evan Berry is probably the nation’s best kick returner and the offense features an outstanding combination of RBs in Jalen Hurd and Alvin Kamara. There’s also senior QB Josh Dobbs, who can beat you with his arm and legs. Dobbs had a 15/5 TD-INT ratio in 2015, in addition to 671 rushing yards and 11 TDs, not to mention a long TD catch at Florida.


I have so many questions about the head coach, though. Will he continue to use the “standard two-point chart” that was clearly written by a moron? Will he elect to kick a field goal on fourth and goal from the one-inch line on the opening drive of the game like he did vs. Oklahoma last season? Will he have a clue when to use a timeout on a last-minute drive when trying to get into field-goal range (think The Swamp last year)? Also, the four-game stretch of the schedule from late September through mid-October is brutal.

4 - Missouri: The remarkable tenure of Gary Pinkel is over. He won the SEC East twice in Missouri’s first three seasons in the league. However, the 2015 Tigers lost their starting QB to a suspension in late September, forcing them to go with a true freshman under center. The results were disastrous, as the Tigers averaged only 13.6 PPG for the season. It wasted a year when the defense was one of the best in the country, allowing only 16.2 PPG despite getting zero help from the other side of the ball. Missouri limped to a 5-7 finish, scoring nine points or fewer in six different games. The former DC Barry Odom takes over for Pinkel in his first head-coaching job. He has eight starters back on ‘D,’ in addition to the return of DT Harold Brantley, who missed all of ’15 with an injury but had 54 tackles and five sacks in ’14. The offense returns five starters and has question marks galore. I see the Tigers going 5-7 again this year.

5 - Kentucky: I have Kentucky going 5-7 for a third straight season. The Wildcats return nine starters on offense and five on defense. Drew Barker finally takes over as the starting QB as a third-year sophomore. He was the prize of Mark Stoops’s second recruiting class as a four-star prep signal caller. Barker replaces Patrick Towles, who transferred to Boston College after struggling in ’15. All of the top WRs are back and the ‘Cats have a solid 1-2 punch at RB with Stanley ‘Boom’ Williams (7.1 YPC) and Jojo Kemp (5.7 YPC), who combined to rush for 1,410 yards and 12 TDs last season. Phil Steele ranks UK’s o-line as the sixth-best in the SEC, so the offense should produce plenty of points if Barkley emerges as a quality SEC QB. The defense is another matter, however. This unit gave up 27.4 PPG last season and lost seven of its top eight tacklers. I have UK losing at home to Vandy and at Missouri, but those are certainly games it can win. If the ‘Cats win those, they’ll go bowling and Stoops will return. If not, I’m not sure Stoops will be given a fifth season.

6 - Vanderbilt: If Penn State and Vandy struggle this season, James Franklin and Derek Mason might both get fired. In that scenario, might we see Franklin back in Music City? Maybe, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Vandy went 4-8 last season despite getting great play from the defense. Mason fired his DC after Year 1 and took over those duties himself. That’s the best decision he’s made since leaving his Stanford DC post to replace Franklin, who guided the Commodores to three straight bowl games and a pair of nine-win seasons. But they’ve limped to a 7-17 mark on Mason’s watch. The defense lost its leading tackler (LB Nigel Bowden) in ’14 after just two games last year. Nevertheless, this unit allowed only 21.0 PPG. Vandy lost at home to Western Kentucky and at Florida by four combined points.


The Commodores return eight starters on offense and seven on defense. They get Bowden back along with WR C.J. Duncan, who missed all of ’15 after starting nine games in ’14. Duncan had 28 receptions for 441 yards and four TDs in ’14. Junior RB Ralph Webb has rushed for 2,064 yards the last two seasons and could become the school’s all-time leading rusher if he can produce 1,100 yards this year. The starting QB is going to be Kyle Shurmer, who started five games in ’15 as a true freshman. He completed only 44-of-103 passes (42.7%), but he had more TD passes (five) than interceptions (three). Vandy plays at Auburn and vs. Ole Miss in its games against the SEC West, and it has a pair of tough non-conference contests at Ga. Tech and at Western Ky. I have Vandy going 5-7 but if it can steal a win at Georgia Tech or at Missouri, it will return to the postseason and any dreams of Franklin’s return will probably be out the window.

7 - South Carolina: USC went 3-9 last season and returns only four starters on offense and five on defense. The Gamecocks lost their leading tackler from the last three seasons, LB Skai Moore, to season-ending neck surgery in June. I like the hire of Will Muschamp, an outstanding recruiter and one of the best defensive minds in the game (pro and college). I’m confident that by Year 3 Muschamp will have USC consistently winning 7-9 games per season, but it’s going to take time. The Gamecocks lost five one-possession games in ’15, so maybe the 3-9 record looks uglier than it really was.


True freshman QB Brandon McIlwain was a four-star recruit who had an excellent spring. He might start right away if he can beat out veteran Perry Orth, who was injured during spring drills. There are questions galore at nearly every position on the roster, but I could see this team being a tough out come late October. Muschamp assembled an excellent staff that will have this team playing hard. With that said, I think 6-6 and getting to a bowl game is this team’s ceiling. I’ll call it 4-8, but that’s with losses at Vandy, at Mississippi St. and at Kentucky, all of which are games the Gamecocks could potentially win.

 

[CNOTES]

SEC Best Bets
July 26, 2016




Before I go through each SEC team, let’s start with the three plays I’m recommending. They are Texas A&M ‘over’ 6.5 wins, Auburn ‘under’ seven wins and Florida to win the SEC East.

Texas A&M ‘over’ 6.5 (-130): When South Point sent out its season win totals a few weeks ago, it had the Aggies at 6.5 with the price for the ‘over’ at -115. I’ve seen a few offshores increase the price to -130 and Sportsbook.ag is up to -160. The -160 is a good bit expensive for my taste and I suggest shopping around more. 5Dimes.eu is using a much different number than others, going with the total at eight with a +125 payout for those backing the ‘over.’ As of a few days ago, the Westgate SuperBook didn’t have a number up for Kevin Sumlin’s team.


As long as we’re dealing with 6.5 and the price isn’t north of -140, I’m all about this play! Texas A&M went 8-4 in the regular season last year, losing to Louisville by a 27-21 count at the Music City Bowl when it was playing a third-stringer at quarterback. The Aggies return six starters on offense and seven on defense.


Oklahoma grad transfer Trevor Knight steps into the starting QB slot. He has 15 career starts to his credit, throwing for 3,424 yards while also rushing for 853 yards. Most notably, Knight ripped up Alabama’s secondary in a spectacular performance at the 2013 Sugar Bowl (early January of 2014, acutally), where the Sooners spanked the Crimson Tide, 45-31.


Knight steps into a great situation with perhaps the nation’s best group of wide receivers. As a true freshman in 2015, Christian Kirk had 80 receptions for 1,009 yards and seven TDs. Kirk tallied 1,789 all-purpose yards and scored two TDs on punt returns. Josh Reynolds and Ricky Seals-Jones combined to make 96 catches for 1,467 yards and nine TDs, while Speedy Noil is another lethal weapon when he can stay healthy.


Texas A&M's defense in 2015 was vastly improved thanks to the slick hire of John Chavis, who has been a defensive coordinator in the SEC since 1989 with previous runs at Tennessee and LSU. This unit allowed only 22.0 points per game and brings back seven of its top eight tacklers.


The Aggies’ ‘D’ is led by junior Myles Garrett, who garnered first-team All-American honors in ’15 by producing 59 tackles, 12.5 sacks, seven tackles for loss, 10 QB hurries and one interception. CB Donovan Wilson (5 INT’s) and DE Daeshon Hall (7 sacks) were third-team All-SEC selections last year.


Looking at the schedule, A&M draws South Carolina and Tennessee from the East Division. The Aggies will be favored in Columbia and get the Volunteers at home. We should note that UT will visit College Station after hosting Florida and going to Athens to face Georgia. Furthermore, the Vols will have Alabama on deck, so the situational factors are heavily in favor of A&M for that spot.


The opener vs. UCLA at Kyle Field is obviously a pivotal contest. Most books currently have the Aggies favored by 1.5 or two points. I like A&M to beat the Bruins and it should cruise to easy victories in its other non-conference contests vs. Prairie View A&M, New Mexico State and UTSA.


I’m confident that Sumlin’s squad will win at South Carolina and lose at Alabama. Then every other SEC contest looks like it could go either way: at Auburn, vs. Arkansas (Arlington), vs. UT, at Mississippi State, vs. Ole Miss and vs. LSU (on a short week). Even if the Aggies lose to UCLA, they would be at 4-2 going into these six SEC matchups. A 3-3 split would get us ‘over’ 6.5 wins.


As I see it, A&M will beat Arkansas for the fifth straight year, improve to 3-0 on The Plains since joining the SEC with another win over Auburn and hand Tennessee its second loss after the Vols lose at UGA the week before. Also, I like the Aggies to win at Mississippi State. They will lose at Alabama, vs. Ole Miss and vs. LSU to finish 9-3. All about the ‘over’ for Sumlin’s fifth team.

Auburn ‘under’ 7 wins (+100): Unlike the numbers for A&M, it’s unanimous at every book I’ve looked at that Auburn is at an even-money price for ‘under’ 7 wins. Gus Malzahn’s team was an immense disappointment in 2015, going 6-6 in the regular season. Hey, it could’ve been worse. AU was -78 in yardage in a 31-24 season-opening win over Louisville. One week later, AU needed a score late in regulation to force overtime at home against Jacksonville St. in what turned into a 27-20 win. AU was also fortunate to escape Lexington with a 30-27 win over Kentucky in a game in which it was -90 in yardage.


Auburn returns 12 total starters, six on each side of the ball. The QB position remains a question mark, although there are high hopes for the likely starter in juco transfer John Franklin III. Four of last year’s five top tacklers are gone, as is DC Will Muschamp. Kevin Steele replaces Muschamp and that’s a major downgrade. With Steele as its DC in 2015, LSU had its worst defense in a decade.


For its East opponents, Auburn plays at Georgia and gets Vandy at home. The Commodores will have two weeks to prep for AU, while the Tigers will catch Vandy in between road games at Ole Miss and UGA. When AU plays at Mississippi St. on Oct. 8, it will be playing its sixth game in six weeks while the Bulldogs will be coming off an open date.


I think Auburn loses all four of its road assignments: at Mississippi State, at Ole Miss, at Georgia and at Alabama. If that happens, we’ll cash ‘under’ 7 even if the Tigers win six of their eight home games. I’m extremely confident they’ll fall to Clemson in the opener and to LSU in Week 4. In addition, Texas A&M and Arkansas can certainly escape The Plains in the win column.


A best-case scenario for Auburn entails Franklin (or Jeremy Johnson) providing solid and consistent QB play, RB Jovon Robinson staying healthy and enjoying a banner year, defensive star Carl Lawson finally getting through a season healthy and true freshman WR Nate Craig-Myers emerging as a big-time playmaker. Even if all of those factors come together, I still can’t see AU going 8-4. I believe 7-5 is the ceiling for Malzahn’s bunch and it will be fortunate to get there.


I’m thinking 5-7 and a likely pink slip for Malzahn.

Florida +450 to win the SEC East: This is the current number at Sportsbook.ag. 5Dimes has the Gators with a more generous return (+480).

 

[CNOTES]

BC-FBC--College Football Preview Package,ADVISORY


To help you with your planning ahead of the college football season, we will have the following stories, photos and more in coming weeks, anchored by a special project surrounding the Top 25 poll, team and Power Five conference previews as well as two weekends of feature stories. This digest is subject to change and will be updated throughout the month of August. For questions, please call 212-621-1630 or email Ed Montes (emontes(at)ap.org) and Dave Zelio (dzelio(at)ap.org). All times Eastern.


DIGITAL NEWS EXPERIENCE


All the stories in this advisory as well as exclusive blog content, a weekly podcast and videos will be available through the College Football Digital News Experience, which is a fully curated digital presentation focused entirely on AP's college football coverage and anchored around the marquee AP Top 25 poll. The site, which is responsive to all devices, is available for free and even pays a revenue share to participating sites. The DNE allows for local customization of the site logo, navigation bar, highlighted teams and other features, including embeddable widgets around the poll and Latest News. Some examples: http://collegefootball.ap.org/lufkindailynews and http://collegefootball.ap.org/wvgazette. Contact your local sales representative or Barry Bedlan at bbedlan(at)ap.org to take advantage of this free digital offering.

TOP 25 POLL


The 2016 preseason AP Top 25 will be released on Sunday, Aug. 21, at 2 p.m. The weekly poll will begin on Tuesday, Sept. 6, and will then be sent every Sunday at 2 p.m. through the regular season. The final poll will be sent roughly an hour after the national championship game the evening of Monday, Jan. 9, in Tampa, Florida.

AP SPORTS EXTRA - PRESEASON POLL PAGE


A paginated look at the preseason AP Top 25 poll will be available shortly after the poll is released on Aug. 21. The AP Sports Extra pages are available in full broadsheet, half broadsheet and tabloid size (perfect for your preseason football tab). They will include space for local advertising or content. The pages will focus on the 25 teams selected by AP poll voters with emphasis on those at the very top. The pages are available at no charge to all AP Sports subscribers. Contact your local sales representative or Barry Bedlan at bbedlan(at)ap.org for more information.


ONLY ON AP


For the first time, AP has tabulated every single one of its weekly college football polls since the first was released 80 years ago. That research has been used to determine an all-time rankings list and other stories, including an eight-part series looking at the top teams of each decade.

FBC--AP POLL AT 80


To look back, all the way back, to the first Top 25 college football poll is to take a walk through history. The great teams at Notre Dame and Army, at Oklahoma and Alabama, the coaching greats like Bud Wilkinson and Bobby Bowden, Joe Paterno, Lou Holtz and Nick Saban. For the first time, The Associated Press has sorted through all those polls - all 1,103 of them - to determine the top 100 programs of all time after eight decades of arguing who's the best. By College Football Writer Ralph D. Russo. UPCOMING: 800 words, photos on Aug. 2 at 2 p.m.


With:


FBC--ALL-TIME AP POLL -THE TOP 100-LIST


The Top 100 college football teams of all time as determined by The Associated Press Top 25. By College Football Writer Ralph D. Russo. UPCOMING: 2,500 words. Capsules on the best 25 teams, then a list of the remaining 75 on Aug. 2 at 2 p.m. Will be featured on special page of the College Football DNE.


FBC--ALL-TIME AP POLL -THE NO. 1s-LIST


All 44 teams ranked No. 1 at least once over the 80 years, with capsules that include the overall top team for each school. By College Football Writer Ralph D. Russo. UPCOMING: 2,000 words, photos on Aug. 4.

Also:


FBC--ALL-TIME AP POLL-1930s-40s

The Associated Press college football poll was created to try to answer the simplest yet most divisive question in sports: Who's better? The poll helped give a regional sport more of a national scope. The poll helped define the Army-Notre Dame rivalry in the 1940s and was part of their games becoming major events. By Richard Rosenblatt. UPCOMING: 700 words, photos on Aug. 14.


FBC--ALL-TIME AP POLL-1950s


By the 1950s, college football's power has drifted away from the elite Eastern schools and into the Midwest. Bud Wilkinson's Oklahoma dynasty dominated the polls as it set a record winning streak that still stands. By College Football Writer Eric Olson. UPCOMING: 700 words, photos on Aug. 15.


FBC--ALL-TIME AP POLL-1960s


The focus on the national championship race and the polls reached new heights in the 1960s, with a peak in 1966 when the matchup of No. 1 Notre Dame and No. 2 Michigan State late in the season ended in a famous 10-10 tie. By College Football Writer Ralph D. Russo. UPCOMING: 700 words, photos on Aug. 16.

FBC--ALL-TIME AP POLL-1970s


Coaching icons dominated the AP poll during the 1970s with Bear Bryant at Alabama, Joe Paterno at Penn State, Woody Hayes at Ohio State, Bo Schembechler at Michigan, Barry Switzer at Oklahoma and Tom Osborne at Nebraska. Their matchups would often help determine No. 1. By College Football Writer Ralph D. Russo. UPCOMING: 700 words, photos on Aug. 17.


FBC--ALL-TIME AP POLL-1980s


A new dynasty emerges at Miami, where the brash Hurricanes upend the established Midwestern powers, with pro-style offenses and speedy defenses that smother option football. It takes a little while for AP poll voters to catch up to the power shift, but when they do, Miami becomes a fixture. By Tim Reynolds. UPCOMING: 700 words, photos on Aug. 22.


FBC--ALL-TIME AP POLL-1990s


Controversial championships, sometimes with the AP poll breaking one way and the coaches' poll going another, prompt the bowls and conferences to start working toward a more definitive way to determine the national title. Eventually, it becomes the BCS. By College Football Writer Ralph D. Russo. UPCOMING: 700 words, photos on Aug. 23.


FBC--ALL-TIME AP POLL-2000s


The first half of the decade is dominated by USC's unprecedented run at No. 1, but then the SEC takes over. The overlap produces the last split national champion with the Trojans taking the AP title and LSU winning the BCS. The constant controversy leads to the AP asking out of the BCS process. By David Brandt. UPCOMING: 700 words, photos on Aug. 24.


FBC--ALL-TIME AP POLL-2010s


A new power emerges in Oregon, a rarity for college football. But an old one in Alabama dominates as Nick Saban reigns. AP voters are asked to judge a changing brand of football that is played fast and furious and often without a lot of defense. By John Zenor UPCOMING: 700 words, photos on Aug. 25.

CONFERENCE AND TEAM PREVIEWS


Each of the following will move in a `things to watch' chunky text format of approximately 700 words, with photos.


Team previews:


All previews for Power Five conference schools, BYU, Notre Dame and the service academies will move on Aug. 12.

Conference previews:


Aug 8: SEC, Pac-12


Aug. 9: Big Ten, Atlantic Coast


Aug 11: Big 12, Mountain West


Aug. 12: American Athletic, Sun Belt, Conference USA, Mid-American


SHAREABLE CONTENT


Every Wednesday until the regular season, AP will offer a FBC--PICK SIX story from July 13 until Aug. 31.


- FBC--Pick Six-SEC-Pivotal Players. SENT: 700 words, photos on July 13.


- FBC--Pick Six-Pac-12-Pivotal-Players. SENT: 700 words, photos on July 20.


- FBC--Pick Six-Big 12-Pivotal Players. SENT: 700 words, photos on July 27.


PLAYOFF PULSE PODCAST


Posted Wednesday evenings on top topics of the day. All podcasts can be accessed via the College Football DNE blog at http://collegefootball.ap.org/ap-now-college-football and through your locally branded version of the DNE.


PREVIEW PACKAGE FOR AUG. 6-7 WEEKEND


FBC--SEC SCHEDULING


KNOXVILLE, Tenn. - The SEC gets plenty of criticism each year for essentially taking a week off in November to play some scuffling teams. It makes up for it with a high-powered opening lineup that is particularly noteworthy this year, including Alabama-USC, Ole Miss-Florida State, Auburn-Clemson, Texas A&M-UCLA and LSU-Wisconsin. Does frontloading the nonconference schedule help the SEC impress the playoff committee and boost its national perception? By Steve Megargee. UPCOMING: 750 words, photos by noon Aug. 5.


FBC--HARBAUGH'S NEXT ACT


ANN ARBOR, Mich. - He's slept at recruit's houses, had his wife mock his $8 khakis and taken his team on the road for camp, rankling the SEC and forcing the NCAA to take a stand. There may be no louder voice in college football. But what's happening behind the scenes makes Harbaugh much more than a meme. By Larry Lage. UPCOMING: 750 words, photos by noon Aug. 5.

FBC--HEISMAN HYPE


Leonard Fournette. Christian McCaffrey. Deshaun Watson. Baker Mayfield. Four of the top six vote-getters from last year's Heisman race are back, giving this fall's competition for college football's top honor plenty of intrigue. By David Brandt. UPCOMING: 800 words by noon Aug. 6.


FBC--HELTON'S HOLLYWOOD


LOS ANGELES - Clay Helton, USC coach, is not Hollywood. The longtime assistant was a surprising choice to go from interim coach to simply coach of a program that is one of college football's crown jewels but has been unable to recapture its greatness under former Pete Carroll assistants, Lane Kiffin and Steve Sarkisian. The hope is that Helton can provide stability if not flash, but he also starts the season with a two-game losing streak and an opener against defending national champion Alabama. By Greg Beacham. UPCOMING: 750 words, photos by noon Aug. 7.


PREVIEW PACKAGE FOR AUG. 13-14 WEEKEND


FBC--GOING INDEPENDENT


UMass is going it alone this season, its first as a football independent since essentially being booted out of the Mid-American Conference. New Mexico State and Idaho have faced similar decisions recently, too - to go independent and stay in the Bowl Subdivision or drop to the FCS. New Mexico State is staying. Idaho will be going. When you aren't Notre Dame, there are a lot of pros and cons to independence. By College Football Writer Ralph D. Russo. UPCOMING: 780 words, photos by 5 a.m. Aug. 13.


FBC--YEAR OF THE RUNNING BACK


It's another year of the running back in college football. LSU's Leonard Fournette, Stanford's Christian McCaffrey, Oregon's Royce Freeman and Florida State's Dalvin Cook all are back after rushing for over 1,800 yards last season. The talent at running back is so loaded that guys such as Tennessee's Jalen Hurd and North Carolina's Elijah Hood - who would be boldface names in any other year - are relatively under the radar. By Steve Megargee. UPCOMING: 700 words, photos by noon Aug. 13.

FBC--CHASING BEAR


TUSCALOOSA, Ala. - Nick Saban is one national title away from matching Bear Bryant's record and, with his 65th birthday coming up on Halloween, shows no signs of slowing down. By John Zenor. UPCOMING: 750 words, photos. By noon Aug. 14.


FBC--RUGBY-STYLE TACKLING


LINCOLN, Neb. - Rugby-style tackling, which positions the defender's head to the side of the ball-carrier rather than straight-on, is growing in popularity in a sport beleaguered by concussion concerns. The Seattle Seahawks were the first team to teach the technique, with Ohio State following last season. Nebraska, among others, is the latest program coaching rugby-style technique. By College Football Writer Eric Olson. UPCOMING: 750 words, photos by noon Aug. 14.

 

[CNOTES]

2016 Preseason All-ACC Team
July 27, 2016


The 2016 preseason all-Atlantic Coast Conference team, announced Wednesday by the league and determined by a vote of 191 media members at the conference's media days last week


OFFENSE


WR-Artavis Scott, jr., Clemson


WR-Isaiah Ford, jr., Virginia Tech


WR-Travis Rudolph, jr. Florida State


TE-Jordan Leggett, sr., Clemson


OT-Roderick Johnson, jr., Florida State


OT-Mitch Hyatt, soph., Clemson


OG-Dorian Johnson, sr., Pitt


OG-Tyrone Crowder, jr., Clemson


C-Jay Guillermo, sr., Clemson


QB-Deshaun Watson, jr., Clemson


RB-Dalvin Cook, jr., Florida State


RB-Elijah Hood, jr., North Carolina


DEFENSE


DE-DeMarcus Walker, sr., Florida State


DE-Ejuan Price, sr., Pitt


DT-Carlos Watkins, sr., Clemson


DT-DeAngelo Brown, sr., Louisville


LB-Ben Boulware, sr., Clemson


LB-Keith Kelsey, sr., Louisville


LB-Devonte Fields, sr., Louisville


CB-Cordrea Tankersley, sr., Clemson


CB-Des Lawrence, sr., North Carolina


S-Derwin James, soph., Florida State


S-Quin Blanding, jr., Virginia


SPECIAL TEAMS


K-Greg Huegel, soph., Clemson


P-Justin Vogel, sr., Miami


Spec.-Ryan Switzer, sr., North Carolina

 

[CNOTES]

Head Coaching Changes
July 27, 2016


Football head coaches get all the glory, but top assistants can be extremely important in a team's success or failure. Offensive and defensive coordinators have great influence on game plans and a unit's effectiveness. Gus Malzahn was the offensive coordinator when Auburn won the national title and nearly pulled it off in 2013 as head coach of the Tigers. Notre Dame overachieved and made a bowl the last five seasons under Coach Brian Kelly, making the title game in 2013, while Urban Meyer has taken Ohio State to another level.


Assistants are often the NFL star head coaches of tomorrow, as well. Bill Parcells lost one of his top assistants, Sean Payton, who went to New Orleans and helped lead the Saints Super Bowl title turnaround. Another Parcells assistant, Bill Belichick, has done pretty well himself.


Competent football assistants can be huge assets. Buddy Ryan was the principle architect of the Bears' 46 defense that led the way to the 1986 Super Bowl. He left the team after that victory and the Bears were never as dominant defensively. Let's look at some key coaching changes in the college ranks.


Illinois: Lovie Smith leaves the NFL for the college ranks, trying to rebuild a 5-7 Illini team. He inherits a boatload of veterans with 10 starters back on offense, 7 on defense. He won't have to rebuild the offense, either, as senior QB Wes Lunt (14 TDs, 6 INTs, 2,761 yards passing) returns. On the other hand, the Illini ranked last in the Big Ten in rushing (129.3 ypg) and had a league-low 13 rushing TDs in 2015.


Lovie's specialty is defense and he inherits a team that allowed just 23.3 ppg, but they lost six of their top seven tacklers and the secondary loses two key starters. He has plenty of work to do on a team that is on a 6-26 Big 10 run.


Miami: Head coach Al Golden was ousted, paving the way for longtime Georgia coach Mark Richt to step in. Why the Canes? Richt is an alum and a former quarterback at the school under Howard Schnellenberger. He knows how to recruit SEC talent in the deep south, another big plus.


The biggest plus of all is the offense, with QB Brad Kaaya back along with almost all the key players around him. Getting Florida State and North Carolina at home is a gift for the new coach -- as is not playing Clemson.


South Carolina: It's hard to believe the Gamecocks' offense was so dismal last year (21.9 ppg) under Steve Spurrier. The Old Ball Coach is out and Will Muschamp steps in. He has a defensive reputation and that will be put to the test on a defense that surrendered 27.5 points and 430 yards per contest.


New co-offensive coordinators Bryan McClendon (Georgia assistant) and Kurt Roper are in, the latter for ran the 2014 Cleveland Browns -- which isn't exactly something to boast about. They will run a spread offense on paper, but have untested QBs and only two offensive lineman back. Hope their contracts run more than one year!

Syracuse: You won't recognize the Orange on offense! New head coach Dino Babers ran a Baylor-style spread attack while at Bowling Green. BG won 10 games last season scoring 591 points, the most in the MAC, with QB Matt Johnson throwing 46 TDs with only 8 picks. And their top two running backs averaged 5.8 and 5.7 yards per carry. The new coach inherits a good QB, though, in Eric Dungey, so this offense may be a little ahead of schedule.

Iowa State: The struggling Cyclones bring in Matt Campbell, a hot young coach from Toledo (who beat Iowa State and Arkansas last year). Campbell inherits a lot of talent on offense in Junior QB Joel Lanning (10 TDs, 4 picks, 1,247 yards) and sophomore RB Mike Warren (1,339 yards, 5.9 ypc), who was great as a freshman. Throw in junior WRs Allen Lazard (56 catches, 808 yds) and Trever Ryen and the Cyclones should be able to score points. Stopping the opposition, however, has been very difficult for Iowa State the last few years, despite a 14-9-1 run under the total.

Virginia: The Cavs got a big-name hire in Bronco Mendenhall. In his 11 seasons he went 99-42, and led the Cougars to two Mountain West titles before the school became an Independent in 2011. His first step will be to cut down turnover-prone QB Matt Johns, who had 20 TDs, 17 picks. Mendenhall loves a power ground attack and will the O-line is loaded with depth and experience, RB Taquan Mizzell is more about speed than physicality.

 

[CNOTES]

2016 Pac-12 Preview
August 1, 2016


Pac-12 Conference Football Betting Preview


Quarterback Checklist


Like most football conferences, the Pac-12 is a quarterback driven league. And 2016 will be no different, with UCLA’s Josh Rosen and Washington State’s Luke Falk leading the charge.


In their first years as starters at the FBS level, Rosen tossed for 3,669 yards and 23 TDs as a true freshman, while Falk annihilated opposing defenses when he threw for 4,561 yards as 38 TDs, completing over 69% of his passes.


And speaking of first year performers, Washington’s Jake Browning started 12 games as a freshman last season when he aired it out for 2,955 yards and 16 TDs.


Returning quarterbacks looking to replicate stirring numbers they put up in 2014 include Arizona’s Anu Soloman (3,793 yards and 28 TDs in ’14) and Colorado’s Sefo Liufau (3,200 yards and 28 TD’s in ’14).


Keep a vigilant eye on newcomers Davis Webb of California, a graduate transfer from Texas Tech where he tossed for 5,557 yards and 46 strikes, and Dakota Prukop of Oregon, an FCS transfer who accounted for nearly 4,000 yards and 39 overall scores at Montana State.


By the time the final dust settles backers of these teams will have air miles aplenty.


Draft Dodgers


Thirty-two Pac-12 players were selected in this year’s NFL draft, bring the total to 133 alums being selected in the draft over the past four years – 4th best of all Power 5 conferences.


However, the he 32 Pac-12 selections pales in comparison with the SEC as the king of all conferences had 51 players selected this year and now stands at 217 total players taken since 2013.


The ACC comes in at No.2 overall since 2013 with 176, followed by the Big Ten at 134 and the Big 12 bring up the rear with 96.


Note: Numbers following team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, along with the number of returning linemen, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback.


2016 PAC-12 NORTH PREVIEW


CALIFORNIA (Offense – 5/4, Defense – 5/3, 65 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: NEW-FANGLED BEARS


An 8-win season, led by new Los Angeles Rams QB Jared Goff, brought Sonny Dykes his first winning season in Berkeley last year. While great on paper, Cal actually underachieved as they were expected to challenge for the Pac-12 North championship. Instead they finished 4th at 4-5. With Goff and OC Tony Franklin gone, Jake Spavital takes over the keys to the offense. Spavital produced stellar quarterback recruits at Texas A&M as the Aggies’ OC. A mind-boggling 18 receivers were on the roster for the spring game, with Melquise Stovall leading the way with 128 yards and two touchdowns. On the other side of the ball, Cal improved 58 YPG defensively last season, but were ranked No. 109 overall. The Bears had better not go into early hibernation as they close out the campaign against six straight bowl teams.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Under Dykes, the Bears are 0-12 SU and 2-10 ATS versus Oregon, Stanford, UCLA and USC, losing by an average of nearly 21 PPG.


PASS



OREGON (Offense – 6/2, Defense – 4/1, 49 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: NOT SO DUCKY


It’s hard to fathom but last year’s 9-4 season tied for the program’s poorest showing since 2007. Making matters worse? Try a collapse of monumental proportions in January’s Alamo Bowl. The 47-41 loss in triple overtime came after blowing a 31-0 halftime lead to TCU, and leaves them scratching their noggins heading into the 2016 campaign. For the 2nd year in a row, the Ducks will start a new quarterback – another FCS transfer – in Montana State import Dakota Prukop, who flourished operating the same Chip Kelly system that Oregon runs. Meanwhile, new DC Brady Hoke will look to plug a defense that allowed 37.5 PPG in 2015. On the slippery slope they now ride, the Quack Attack looks to be on thin ice.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Ducks owned the 4th worst overall defense (485.3 YPG) of all Power 5 teams last season.


PLAY AGAINST: vs. Stanford (11/12)




OREGON STATE (Offense – *8/3, Defense – 6/1, 49 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: GNAWED OFF


When Gary Andersen shocked the world and opted to leave Wisconsin, little did he realize the cupboard in Corvallis had been cleared out. After a 2-1 opening, the Beavers were chewed up and spit out like a tin of Skoal Bandits as they dropped 9 straight games to conclude the season. Through it all, the Beavers were beaten to a pulp: outscored and outyarded by conference foes by 24.6 PPG and 208 YPG, worst in the Pac-12 last season. Making matters even grimmer, two QBs and the team’s top LB have transferred out. Thus, Oregon State will lean heavily on former Utah State QB Darell Garretson, who was recruited by Andersen when he was the head coach of the Aggies.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Beavers will face 10 opponents that played in bowl games last season, including each of their final 8 games.


PLAY ON: at Colorado (10/1)




STANFORD (Offense – 6/2, Defense – 6/1, 71 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: SENIOR MOMENT


Coming off their third Pac-12 title in 4 years – where they bested conference foes by 16.8 PPG and 69 YPG – the Cardinal is indeed the loop’s current kingpin. The return of Heisman Trophy runner-up RB Christian McCaffrey will help to maintain the status quo. But he’ll need to acquaint himself with a new cast of playmates as a bevy of seniors have departed, including 4-year starting QB Kevin Hogan and a trio of offensive linemen. The good news for McCaffrey is FB Daniel Marx is a short yardage specialist in the Cardinal’s “ogre” package. “This is a guy who will be playing on Sundays,” insists HC David Shaw. And then there’s the defense, one that has racked up a whopping 124 sacks the past 3 seasons. The problem is a majority of those came from players now playing on Sundays. With their first 6 games coming against bowlers, Shaw will have to earn his stripes in 2016.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Cardinal seniors made a total of 188 starts last season, tied for the most in the nation with Akron.


PLAY AGAINST: at UCLA (9/24)



WASHINGTON (Offense – *9/4, Defense – 7/3, 51 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: YOUNG AS HELL AND BACK FOR MORE


The Huskies went with a youth movement on offense last season and as a result, head coach Chris Petersen should enjoy plenty of dividends in 2016. Freshman QB Jake Browning started 12 of 13 games last year, finishing with 2,955 yards and 16 TDs. Freshman RB Myles Gaskin rushed for 1,302 yards while finding the end zone 14 times – despite starting only six games. In addition, 4 starting O-linemen return. On the other side of the ball, the secondary had more interceptions than TD passes allowed in 2015. It doesn’t hurt that Petersen has averaged 10.7 wins per season as a head coach, 3rd highest of all active coaches. With 5 of the Huskies’ first 7 games at home this season, the Iditarod is on as U-Dub is poised for a breakout season in 2016.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Huskies’ underclassmen made a total of 156 starts last season, the most of any team in the nation.


PLAY ON: at Utah (10/29)




WASHINGTON STATE (Offense – *8/3, Defense – 6/1, 47 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: AIRBORNE AGAIN


After garnering 10 bowl bids in 10 seasons at Texas Tech, Mike Leach brought his air-raid attack to Pullman where after 3 wobbly years the Cougars finally clawed their way to an 8-win bowl season last year. As an assistant under Hal Mumme, the tandem set 196 school records in 7 years. He also directed an Oklahoma offense that went from 101st in the nation to 11th in just one year under Bob Stoops. Yes, the man can coach. And this year’s Cougars squad is hands-down his best at WSU. The top passing team in the land last year returns QB Luke Falk (38 TDs and 8 INTs) and just about the entire wide receiving corps, including Gabe Marks who had 104 receptions for 1,192 yards and 15 TD’s. Yikes.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Cougars were the No. 3 ranked team in the nation in red-zone offense (.925) last season.


PLAY ON: at Stanford (10/8) - *KEY




2016 PAC-12 SOUTH PREVIEW


ARIZONA (Offense – *7/3, Defense – 7/2, 47 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: ANU YEAR


After winning 10 games in 2014 for the first time since 1998, the injury bug bit the Wildcats hard in 2015. Because of a plethora of injuries, 22 different players started on defense last year. However, in spite of playing musical chairs, the Wildcats managed to beat a Top 10 team for the 4th year in a row under HC Rich Rodriguez. And in the process they also managed a 4th consecutive winning season for the first time since 1992-95. Promising QB Anu Solomon, who was whispered in Heisman talk during his freshman year in 2014 before an injury-plagued campaign flared up last season, joins explosive RB Nick Wilson – one of 4 running backs what went down in 2015 – to form a lethal 1-2 punch. If LB DeAndre’ Miller is healed up, the defense can take a major forward step.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Wildcats are 2-17 ATS as favorites during the regular season from Game Ten out.


PLAY ON: at Washington State (11/5)




ARIZONA STATE (Offense – 4/1, Defense – 6/3, 63 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: HURRY UP ALREADY


After 2014’s team featured 25 freshmen and sophomores on the final two-deep roster, with 23 players having made their first Division-1 career starts (2nd most in the nation), a lot was expected – but not delivered – from the Sun Devils last season. A bitter 0-3 record in one-possession games contributed greatly. But as we’ve come to learn, experienced pimply-faces make strong cases for turning losers into winners. New OC Chip Lindsey inherits one of the best running back tandems in the Pac-12 with Demario Richard and Kalen Ballage, but must replace star QB Mike Berkovici. Lots of potential here provided the top priority becomes mending a defense that has slipped dramatically each of the last 3 years.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Sun Devils allowed 4,392 passing yards, the worst of all FBS teams last season.


PLAY ON: vs. California (9/24)




COLORADO (Offense – *9/4, Defense – 9/3, 62 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: BUFFALO BASHING


Poor Mike MacIntyre. As if going 2-25 in Pac-12 play during his first three seasons with the Buffaloes isn’t bad enough, his herd must roam to Michigan and Oregon in the last two weeks of September to open the 2016 season. In addition, they will also take on no less than 10 bowl teams from last season, including 7 in a row to end the campaign, making the task challenging as well. All of which means MacIntyre – like his team’s namesake – could be extinct by season’s end. To his credit, though, Colorado’s defense has improved each and every year under MacIntyre despite owning the weakest recruiting classes in the conference the last two years.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Buffaloes are 1-19 of late in Pac-12 play, including a winless conference record two years ago for the first time since 1898.


PLAY ON: vs. UCLA (11/3)




UCLA (Offense – *5/2, Defense – 9/2, 44 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: PUSHING THE RE-START BUTTON


After winning 9 games three straight years for the first time in school history, head coach Jim Mora’s troops ran out of gas in 2015, losing 3 of their final four games to finish the season with 8 wins. Nonetheless, 8 players were taken in this year’s NFL Draft, the third most behind Ohio State (12) and Clemson (9). FR RB Soso Jamabo, the No. 1 running back in last season’s recruiting class, played second fiddle and backed up Paul Perkins (NYG) last year. Jamabo excelled in his supporting role to Perkins, averaging 6.1 yards per carry on 66 attempts. He forms a super sophomore duo with young phenom quarterback Josh “Chosen” Rosen... and that’s a good start. Meanwhile, FR LB Mique Juarez has the potential to make everyone quickly forget about Myles Jack.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Bruins have not won a Pac-12 championship since 1998.




PLAY ON: at Washington State (10/15) - *KEY as a dog


USC (Offense – *7/5, Defense – 7/2, 49 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: OMG


Talk about murderous schedules! Not only do the Trojans open with defending national champion Alabama and end with rival Notre Dame, they will take on a total of 11 opponents that played in a bowl game last season. And both of their most challenging Pac-12 North division battles will be on the road at Stanford and Washington. A 2-man battle to replace QB Cody Kessler remains between strong-armed Max Browne and 6’ 4 play-making Sam Darnold. The good news is USC's entire starting offensive line (2 seniors and 3 juniors) returns with a wealth of experience behind it. SO RB Dominic “The Flash” Davis runs a 4.3 in the 40 and is said to be a defensive lineman’s last glimpse. Defensively, a young and inexperienced front 7, decimated by injuries this spring, likely holds the key to their success in 2016.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Trojans have played for five different head coaches over the last 37 games.


PLAY ON: vs. Notre Dame (11/26) - *KEY as a dog



UTAH (Offense - 6/4, Defense – 8/4, 60 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: HOLLOWED OUT


The loss of star RB Devontae Booker and QB Travis Wilson could equal a descent into a bottomless cavern for the Utes. The last time Utah opened a season without Travis Wilson behind center was 2013. Wilson, who played in 46 games (starting 39 times), finished his career with 8,627 total yards and 75 total TDs (54 passing and 21 rushing) for the Utes. JUCO QB Troy Williams looks to replace Wilson. Williams, formerly with the Washington Huskies, threw for 2,750 yards and 31 TDs in only one season at junior college level. In addition, the offensive line returns well stocked with plenty of experience. Kyle Whittingham returns as the longest tenured coach in the Pac-12. With a 32-16 SU mark at Utah in one-possession games, we understand why.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Whittingham owns the best bowl winning percentage (.900) of any coach in NCAA history.


PLAY AGAINST: at California (10/1)

 

[CNOTES]

ACC Betting Outlook
August 5, 2016




ACC Coastal Preview


In several recent seasons there have been some underwhelming ACC Coastal champions but last season North Carolina raised the bar for the division going 8-0 and giving Clemson a great battle in the championship game.


The Coastal won the ACC Championship four straight seasons from 2007-2010 but the Atlantic has been the powerhouse since and that is expected to be the case this season. There are a few Coastal squads with a chance to make some noise however.


FAVORITE: Miami, FL


The Hurricanes have failed to reach the double-digit win count that the stature of the program commands in 12 straight seasons. Mark Richt will be the fourth Miami head coach in that run and after sustained success at Georgia for 15 years he returns to his alma mater. The Hurricanes have the potential to have a strong 2016 season as the team will have a less demanding non-conference schedule than in several recent seasons and the ACC slate also lines up reasonably well. Miami won’t play Clemson or Louisville and the meeting with Florida State will be at home. A team that is just 4-7 in road games the past two seasons should have a chance to have stronger road results this season even though they have games in Blacksburg and South Bend in back-to-back October weeks. Miami’s roster is loaded with talent and experience on offense and the defense should have the opportunity to improve after a step-back 2015 season. Despite the coaching change Miami still wound up 8-5 last season with a 5-3 ACC record and the three conference losses came against teams that went a combined 23-1 in the ACC regular season.


CONTENDER: North Carolina


North Carolina went 8-0 in ACC play last season before losing in the championship game but they did draw a favorable path pulling NC State and Wake Forest from the Atlantic. Wake Forest is traded for Florida State this season but the Tar Heels are still a serious contender in this division. Three of North Carolina’s conference road wins came by slim margins last year and two of the four road games appear to be of the very difficult variety this season. A tough opening two weeks is also ahead with the Tar Heels facing Georgia and Illinois in non-conference action away from home and for a squad with a new quarterback and several departures on defense it will be difficult to match last season’s 11-3 campaign. North Carolina still allowed 436 yards per game last season and in the final four games of the season including the bowl loss to Baylor the Tar Heels surrendered 155 points as the defense will need to show improvement to keep UNC on top of the division.

SLEEPER: Virginia Tech


It will be a transition season with Justin Fuente replacing the legendary Frank Beamer for Virginia Tech. Fuente had a successful four-year run at Memphis and he has kept much of the defensive staff in tact from Beamer’s administration. The Hokies have two extremely difficult non-conference games as getting back to the national spotlight looks unlikely in 2016 but in Coastal division where 6-2 might be enough Virginia Tech has a promising opportunity to be in the mix. Virginia Tech draws Boston College and Syracuse from the Atlantic as they will avoid the heavyweight ACC contenders and while they have a few difficult road games in the division, the program has featured a winning road record in six of the last seven seasons. Fuente should be able to improve on a surprising 5-8 record in Blacksburg the past two seasons and keeping a long bowl streak for the program looks very realistic with the Hokies a possibility to emerge in the ACC race.

IMPROVED: Georgia Tech


The Yellow Jackets went from going 11-3 in 2014 to just 3-9 last season and Paul Johnson’s ninth-season in Atlanta looks likely to be a bounce-back campaign. Despite the ugly record the Yellow Jackets outscored their opposition on the season but wound up with six losses by eight or fewer points. A rise back to the top of the Coastal looks unlikely as they face a difficult conference road schedule, although one break is only facing three true ACC road games with the meeting with Boston College to open the season being played in Ireland. Facing Clemson as well as tough non-conference games with Vanderbilt and Georgia could temper the success to only modest improvement in 2016 but with a decent group of returning players getting back to the bowl picture looks realistic. The 2015 defense for Georgia Tech was significantly stronger statistically than the far more successful 2014 defense but the offense took a big step back and there is room for a step forward in 2016.

SINKING: Pittsburgh


The Panthers have had some tough luck with its coaching staffs bolting in recent years and after three seasona Paul Chryst left for the Wisconsin position prior to last season. Pat Narduzzi wound up having a successful first season with the Panthers going 8-5 in 2015 even after a disappointing bowl loss for the best Pittsburgh season since 2010, the year the team relieved Dave Wannstedt. The Panthers have decent experience returning on both sides of the ball in 2016 but a decline may be possible as the non-conference schedule will be upgraded with three formidable games ahead. In ACC play the Panthers also pick-up a road game with Clemson while also facing two top Coastal contenders North Carolina and Miami on the road. Four of six ACC wins last season came by seven or fewer points for Pittsburgh and on the season the Panthers barely had a positive point differential despite the solid record. Ultimately a lot went right for Pittsburgh last season and the 2016 squad looks like one that might teeter right on the bowl cut line.


ACC Atlantic Preview


The ACC Atlantic has produced five straight ACC champions with three Florida State titles in succession bookended by a Clemson title in 2011 and last season, with the Tigers and the 2014 Seminoles also making it to the College Football Playoff.


Those two teams appear to be the heavy favorites in 2016 with the October 29 meeting likely deciding this division, as well as deciding the likely ACC title favorite and a serious national contender.

FAVORITE: Florida State

While Clemson returns one of the top Heisman Trophy candidates in quarterback DeShaun Watson, Florida State should be consider the favorite in 2016 in the Atlantic. The Seminoles return nearly its entire offense from last season and the defense has a chance to improve for the second straight season and get closer to the numbers posted in 2013’s BCS Championship season. The schedule is far from easy with an opener in Orlando vs. Ole Miss plus road games at Louisville and at Miami but Florida State will host Clemson as well as the season finale with Florida. The Seminoles have enough weight in their schedule to be a national playoff contender even if they take a loss at some point provided they still win the division and the subsequent ACC title game with the Atlantic champion poised to be a solid favorite over whatever team emerges from the Coastal division.


CONTENDER: Clemson


The path for Clemson into the national picture might be more favorable as if the Tigers get by a tough opening game with Auburn on the road as they should be a solid favorite in every other game except for the huge late October clash in Tallahassee. While Dabo Swinney will return a good portion of the offense that led the team to a 14-1 season and runner-up finish in the College Football Playoff, the defense has some serious question marks. For the second straight season only a few starters return and despite the success last season, statistically the 2015 squad was much worse defensively than the 2014 team that suffered three losses. While the schedule will give Clemson a good shot at a sixth straight double-digit win season the two biggest games of the season are road games. The Coastal draw for the Tigers is more favorable than Florida State’s pull but ultimately it is hard to see the Atlantic champion not being the winner of the Clemson/Florida State game and the Tigers have won in Tallahassee once in 12 meetings since 1993.

SLEEPER: Louisville


The Cardinals were considered a national sleeper by some last season but they opened the season 0-3. Losing to Auburn proved to be a less impressive showing than expected last season but Houston and Clemson wound up being teams that combined to go 27-2 last season and Louisville lost those two games by three-points each. Bobby Petrino has an experienced roster and after juggling quarterbacks last season there should be more continuity for the offense this season. Louisville will play Florida State at home early in the season but there are tough road games ahead including challenging non-conference games with Marshall and Houston. In the Atlantic Louisville could have a chance however as they draw Duke and Virginia from the Coastal division and if they can score an upset over one of the top two teams they could have a chance to sneak into the division race even if running the table and being a player in the national picture looks unlikely.


IMPROVED: Wake Forest

After growing a Bowling Green program that has had continued success, Dave Clawson took a challenging job at Wake Forest before the 2014 season. Back-to-back 3-9 campaigns have been difficult but in his third season in Winston-Salem he will have a veteran roster and a schedule that should allow for improvement. The Demon Deacons figure to be favored in three of four non-conference games while ACC home games with Syracuse, Virginia, and Boston College are games Wake Forest should have a reasonable chance in even with a 2-14 combined record in the conference the past two seasons. Four of the team’s losses came by eight or fewer points last season and getting the program to a bowl game for the first time since 2011 looks like realistic possibility.

SINKING: NC State


While Jacoby Brissett didn’t wind up with quite the career some envisioned as a highly touted Florida transfer he was still a great college quarterback that will be missed for the Wolfpack. NC State has been in back-to-back owl games under Dave Doeren but each the past two seasons has featured 4-0 starts to the season through very weak non-conference schedules. This season NC State is hosting Notre Dame while also playing at known ACC upset-maker East Carolina as getting two thirds of the way to bowl eligibility in non-ACC games is unlikely this season. Add that NC State has pulled formidable Miami and North Carolina teams from the Coastal draw while also playing two of the three projected top Atlantic teams on the road it could be a challenging year in Raleigh. Doeren is just 6-18 in ACC play in three seasons and the Wolfpack will likely be dogged in at least five of eight ACC games this season.

 

[CNOTES]

Harbaugh's Q Score soars past Saban
August 5, 2016


ANN ARBOR, Mich. (AP) Jim Harbaugh's ways seem to be working with his target audience.


Michigan's coach has starred in a rap video, traveled the country for youth camps, taken his team to Florida for spring break, traded barbs on Twitter and even had sleepovers with recruits.


He's done all of that - and much more - entering his second season with the Wolverines.


If generating buzz to attract recruits to help revive a storied program is Harbaugh's aim, he's hitting the mark.


Harbaugh is much more popular than Alabama coach Nick Saban among millennial males, according to a New York-based company that measures the awareness and appeal of personalities. And, at least some data shows Harbaugh is on the verge of having his celebrity transcend the sports world with those same young men between the ages of 18 and 34.


''Harbaugh is making a significantly stronger impact than Saban among younger males and that seems to be his objective,'' Henry Schafer, executive vice president of The Q Scores Company, said in a telephone interview Friday. ''And, Harbaugh is on the cusp of being an iconic figure among the general population in the same demographic.''


Nearly three-fourths of male sports fans between 18 and 34 are aware of Harbaugh. Harbaugh's Q score is 25 among that group, meaning one out of four millennial males said he was a favorite of theirs in a survey done earlier this year. Saban is someone 68 percent of millennial males surveyed are familiar with and his Q score is 21 among them.


The Q Scores Company conducted its latest survey in February, just after Harbaugh slept at the houses of recruits and prior to him becoming the first college football coach - and perhaps the last - to take his team way off campus for spring drills in Florida. In June, the envelope-pushing coach barnstormed around the country for satellite camps that the NCAA banned after the SEC and ACC pushed for a proposal to do so only to have that decision rescinded.


''I don't know about `Q Ratings,' but I do know that it was priceless to coach and teach 15 to 20,000 youngsters at those camps,'' Harbaugh told The Associated Press, just before throwing out the ceremonial first pitch at a recent Chicago Cubs game. ''Obviously, we didn't do all those camps just for recruiting because all of those youngsters aren't coming to Michigan. But they were all introduced to and learned more about the great game of football.''


Michigan was good, not great, in Harbaugh's first season leading his alma mater.


The Wolverines were 10-3, opening with a setback to Utah and losing later to Ohio State and Michigan State.


They are positioned for a successful start to this season, hosting the first five games, all of which they will likely be favored to win. They appear to have tougher tests in the back half of the schedule, including road games against the Buckeyes and Spartans, rivals who have had their way with the maize and blue in recent years.


If Harbaugh and the Wolverines don't win more games this season and lose to both rivals again, his efforts to create buzz will fall flat. And, he'll still have five fewer national championships than Saban.


''Hype is just hype. It doesn't mean anything,'' Michigan receiver Jehu Chesson said. ''You've got to beat your rivals, and we don't shy away from that.''


Between spring drills and training camp, Harbaugh appeared in a rap video with Bailey, whose song ''Who's Got It Better Than Us?'' plays off a catch phrase of Harbaugh's father, Jack. The senior Harbaugh asked his kids, including Baltimore Ravens coach John Harbaugh, that question when they were growing up and ''Nobody!'' was the expected response.


Jack Harbaugh, who recently moved into a house ''500 feet,'' from his son's house in Ann Arbor, said there is no disconnect between the perception and reality of Jim Harbaugh.


''Jim is who is he and he doesn't ever worry about the backlash,'' said Jack Harbaugh. ''He took his shirt off at a camp, and people are still talking about it a year later. They asked him to be in a rap video and he had some fun with it. Some liked it. Others didn't, and that doesn't bother him.''


His current players and the ones he is recruiting, those in the aforementioned millennial group, seem to be fans of Harbaugh's unique style.


Harbaugh's boss, Warde Manuel, doesn't fit in the same demographic. However, Manuel also admires Harbaugh's approach and is thankful his first season in charge of the athletic department will be Harbaugh's second season on the sideline at the Big House.


''Having him back has meant a lot to the university, athletic department and Michigan football in ways that can be measured: wins, ticket sales and donations,'' Manuel said. ''And in many intangible ways, he has made people feel good around here and from afar about him and Michigan.''

 

[CNOTES]

Big 12 Predictions
August 8, 2016




I only have one season win total that I like out of the 10 schools in the Big 12. That’s Texas Tech to go ‘over’ six wins at a -130 price (risk $130 to win $100).


Kliff Kingsbury’s team returns 12 starters, six on each side of the ball. Most important, the Red Raiders bring back junior quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who has a 52/19 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his first two seasons.


Mahomes completed 364-of-573 passes (63.5%) for 4,653 yards and 36 TDs in 2015. He makes plays with his legs also, rushing for 624 yards (before deducted sack yardage) and 10 TDs.


The Texas Tech offense racked up an average of 45.1 points per game last year. This unit lost leading rusher DeAndre Washington (1,492 yards and 14 TDs) and leading receiver Jakeem Grant, who had 90 catches for 1,268 yards and 10 TDs in 2015. Nevertheless, this group won’t skip a beat and might be even better in 2016.


Texas Tech remains loaded at WR with Devin Lauderdale (42 receptions, 639 yards and 4 TDs), Ian Sadler (42-586 & 3) and Reginald Davis (38-536 & 8) back in the mix. Junior RB Justin Stockton will take over Washington’s duties after producing 367 yards and five TDs on just 61 carries last season. Stockton, who had a 6.0 yards-per-carry average, also had 22 catches for 341 yards and six TDs in ’15.


The defense is another story. This unit gave up 43.6 PPG last year and 41.3 PPG in ’14. Consider this: The Red Raiders lost games in ’15 when they scored 52 points (vs. TCU) and 53 points (vs. Oklahoma State).


There’s no reason to think Texas Tech’s ‘D’ is going to be vastly improved, but I don’t even think it needs to be for us to cash this ‘over.’


Remember, Kingsbury’s bunch finished the regular season with a 7-5 record last year, which obviously went ‘over’ six. And that’s with a loss to TCU when the Horned Frogs scored in the final minute on a fourth-and-goal play in which the TD pass was twice deflected by Red Raider defenders before landing in the hands of a TCU WR in the back of the end zone.


Four of Texas Tech’s five defeats were against ranked opponents. The lone loss to an unranked foe was a 31-26 setback at West Va. Six of the Red Raiders’ seven wins came by double-digit margins.


Looking at the schedule, there are two easy home wins in non-conference play against Stephen F. Austin and La. Tech. There’s a tough trip to Tempe to face Arizona State, but I think ASU is in store for a rough year and like the Red Raiders to beat the Sun Devils, much like how they emerged victorious in a September trip to Arkansas last season.


I’m confident Texas Tech will win at home vs. Kansas, West Va. and Texas. On the flip side, I doubt the Red Raiders will win at TCU or at Oklahoma State. In this scenario, Texas Tech would be 6-2 with four games remaining.


But for the sake of conversation, let’s take away one of those victories – whether it be at ASU or one of the home games vs. WVU or Texas.


If that’s the case, we’re sitting at 5-3 needing one win to push and two wins to cash a winner. The four remaining games are at Kansas State (Oct. 8), vs. Oklahoma (10/22), at Iowa State (11/19) and vs. Baylor in Arlington on Nov. 25.


First, let’s consider the trip to the Baby Apple. When these schools met at Jones AT&T Stadium in Lubbock last year, Texas Tech won a 59-44 decision thanks to 658 yards of total offense. Now of course, the circumstances will be different at Bill Snyder Family Stadium. But Kansas State is off a 6-7 campaign, albeit one in which the QB position was decimated by injuries, and returns five starters on offense and seven on defense.


I like the Red Raiders to win at Kansas State. They won outright as road underdogs twice last season – at Arkansas and at Texas. Also, I like them to win at Iowa State. Texas Tech destroyed the Cyclones 66-31 in ’15 by racking up 776 yards of offense.


With those two victories, we’re in the win column already. With a split, we’re sitting at a push with a home game vs. OU and the Baylor game at Jerry World remaining. Texas Tech will almost certainly will be an underdog in both spots, but it could win either game if it plays outstanding football. OU lost to Texas as a 16.5-point favorite in ’15, and we aren’t yet sure how Baylor will perform after an offseason of adversity only rivaled by a team in Oxford, Miss.


Texas Tech ‘over’ six wins is the best season win total bet of the Big 12 schools.

Moving on to our predictions for the rest of the league…

1) Oklahoma: I have OU ranked fourth in my preseason Power Rankings, but I’ve said all summer that it probably has the easiest path to the College Football Playoff. Bob Stoops’s squad went 11-2 last season, losing 24-17 vs. Texas before running the table the rest of the regular season. In the CFP semifinals, OU led Clemson 17-16 at intermission, but the Tigers dominated the second half en route to a 37-17 victory.


Obviously, part of my thought process with OU’s ‘easiest path’ is due to the lack of a potential defeat in a conference championship game since none exists in the Big 12 since Nebraska and Colorado bolted out of the league.


The Sooners return seven starters on offense and six on defense. Most important, QB Baker Mayfield and RB Samaje Perine are back. Mayfield enjoyed a remarkable year under the direction of offensive coordinator Lincoln Riley, who was the best offseason coordinator hire going into ’15 (with apologies to the second-best, Texas A&M DC John Chavis). Stoops snatched Riley away from East Carolina, where he helped Shane Carden and Justin Hardy shred ECU’s history books with his ‘Air Raid’ attack. Mayfield connected on 68.1 percent of his throws for 3,700 yards and a 36/7 TD-INT ratio. He also rushed for seven scores. Meanwhile, Perine ran for 1,349 yards and 16 TDs while averaging 6.0 YPC.


Mayfield loses his favorite target Sterling Shepard, but Dede Westbrook returns after hauling in 46 receptions for 743 yards and four TDs. Geno Lewis joins the WR group as a grad transfer from Penn State after starting 18 games for the Nittany Lions in three seasons. There’s also TE Mark Andrews, who garnered first-team All Big 12 honors after making seven TD catches last year. Phil Steele ranks OU’s o-line as the second-best behind only WVU in the Big 12 and 22nd-best in the nation.


OU’s 2015 defense gave up only 22.0 PPG, which was easily tops in the Big 12. This unit will be led by LB Jordan Evans (83 tackles), DE Charles Walker (six sacks) and CB Jordan Thomas (five INTs).


I have OU going 11-1 in the regular season. There are five potential defeats on the slate – vs. Houston (at NGR Stadium in Houston), vs. Ohio State in Week 3, at TCU, at Texas Tech and at West Va. There’s also the Bedlam game in Norman, where the Cowboys were victorious as 21-point ‘dogs two seasons ago.


The Sooners do get two weeks to prepare for the toughest road assignment against the Horned Frogs in Ft. Worth. I’ll say it will be Texas Tech that clips OU.

2) Baylor: I have Baylor going 10-2. If I were to play another win total in the Big 12, it would probably be the Bears ‘over’ 8.5 at a -120 price. I’ve also seen 5Dimes with a total of nine that pays a generous plus return (+175 at last look). With that said, I’m hesitant on that play and haven’t pulled the trigger on it simply due to the uncertainty of the coaching change. Jim Grobe was a quality get under the circumstances, but only time will tell if it’s the right fit.


The offseason was obviously brutal with the dismissal of the greatest coach in school history (Art Briles), who had a remarkable run that included six straight bowl appearance and four double-digit win seasons in the last five years. But the roster remains stacked with talent. Five starters are back on each side of the ball from a 10-3 team that was unbeaten until it lost its starting QB. Two of the defeats were one-possession games, including a double OT loss at TCU and a 23-17 home setback to Texas when Baylor was down to its fourth-string QB due to injuries.


Seth Russell returns after going down in the seventh game of ’15. He was only playing 2-3 quarters per game in those seven blowouts, yet he still threw for 2,104 yards with a 29/6 TD-INT ratio. He also rushed for 402 yards and six TDs while averaging 8.2 YPC. He has a pair of 1,000-yard rushers returning in Shock Linwood and Johnny Jefferson. Devin Chafin will also get his fair share of touches. That RB trio combined for 27 rushing scores last year. Also, KD Cannon was a second-team All Big pick at WR last year. The five starters back on defense were among the top six tacklers on the ’15 unit.


Assuming the Bears can beat Oklahoma State at home in Week 4, they should be favored by at least 21 points in five of their first six games (excluding only OSU). The six-game stretch to end of the regular season is tough, but Grobe’s team plays only one game (at home vs. Kansas) from Oct. 2 to Oct. 28. After an Oct. 1 game at Iowa State, Baylor has an open date before hosting KU (10/15), followed by another open date before going to Austin to face Texas. So obviously, the Bears should be fresh and healthy when taking on the Longhorns.


3) (Tie): I have Texas Tech, Oklahoma State and TCU all finishing 8-4. We’ve covered the Red Raiders, so let’s hit on Gary Patterson’s team first. TCU brings back three starters on offense and eight on defense. The ‘D’ gave up 27.2 PPG in ’15, the worst scoring defense for the Frogs in more than a decade. I expect this unit to be improved and watch out for DE Josh Carraway, who had 47 tackles, nine sacks, nine QB hurries and 2.5 tackles for loss last season.


Texas A&M transfer Kenny Hill is the likely starter at QB. Now that we’ve seen that Hill isn’t the only QB to clash with Kevin Sumlin, perhaps the most important thing to remember about Hill is that he was the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy until the Aggies went to Starkville in early October of 2014. He has the (co) Big 12 Offensive Freshman of the Year (WR KaVontae Turpin) as one weapon, in addition to WR Deante Gray, who had to redshirt due to an injury last season.


Most books have TCU’s win total at nine with plus money (+115ish) available for ‘over’ wagers. I think the defeats come vs. OU, at WVU, at Baylor and at Texas (on a short week).


Oklahoma State went 10-3 last season for its fourth double-digit win total in the last six years. The Cowboys have 10 starters back on offense and seven on defense. The offense scored at a 39.5 PPG clip in ’15 thanks to excellent QB play from junior Mason Rudolph, who threw for 3,770 yards with a 21/9 TD-INT ratio. Rudolph has his favorite target back in James Washington, who had 53 receptions for 1,087 yards and 10 TDs.


Mike Gundy’s squad won four one-possession games and rallied from multiple double-digit deficits to win at Texas Tech by a 70-53 score. The three defeats came by double-digit margins. The Cowboys were +13 in the turnover department for the season. They were only +532 in yardage for a 10-3 team, so those numbers point to a team that was fortunate to finish seven games over .500.


I think OSU loses at Baylor, at Kansas State, at TCU and at OU. The win total is in the right place at eight flat (-110 either way).


6) Texas: This is a make-or-break season for third-year head coach Charlie Strong, who is 11-14 since arriving in Austin from Louisville. If not for a stunning win over Oklahoma last year, he might not have seen a third year at UT. He’d better go 9-3 to feel safe, but an 8-4 might work if the four defeats are close games and things are looking up for ’17. (If he gets blown out by the Sooners, the ‘unofficial’ search for a new coach probably begins within 24-48 hours.)


Strong has to get better QB play, which has been the major issue in both of his seasons at the helm. There’s hope that true freshman Shane Buechele might be the answer and he did leave high school early to participate in spring drills. Jerrod Heard and Tyrone Swoops are both quality runners, but they aren’t accurate passers in a league where you need to score a lot of points.


Strong was one of the SEC’s best d-coordinators for more than a decade, but even that side of the ball has struggled on his watch. Actually, the ’14 ‘D’ was solid (23.8 PPG), but last season’s unit allowed 30.3 PPG. The Longhorns scored 44 at California and 45 vs. Texas Tech, only to lose in both contests. They finished 5-7 despite a +11 tally in the turnover department. They were -982 in yardage for the year.


Seven starters return on offense and eight are back on defense. I have the Longhorns going 7-5, but that’s with wins at Cal, at Kansas State, vs. WVU and vs. TCU, none of which are givens by any means.

7) West Virginia: I also have the Mountaineers finishing 7-5. Their win total is 7.5 shaded to the ‘under’ at -120. They finished ’15 with an 8-5 mark after beating Arizona State 43-42 at the Cactus Bowl. Dana Holgorsen’s sixth team in Morgantown returns eight starters on offense but just four on ‘D.’


WVU finished second in the Big 12 in scoring defense (24.6 PPG) last year, but this unit has only one of its top seven tacklers back. And the d-line’s depth has taken a hit here recently with injuries to Xavier Pegues and Jaleel Fields. Pegues might be able to return in late October or November, but Fields is done for the season.


Phil Steele ranks WVU’s o-line as the best in the Big 12. RB Wendell Smallwood (1,519 rushing yards) is gone, but Rushel Shell (708 yards and eight TDs) is more than ready to take on a heavier load. QB Skyler Howard (26/14 TD-INT) threw for 3,145 yards and rushed for 726 (502 after subtracting sack yardage), but he needs to get more accurate (54.8%) and cut down on the turnovers. He has leading WRs Shelton Gibson (887 yards & and nine TDs) and Daikiel Shorts (528 yards & five TDs) back in the mix.


The non-conference schedule includes a home game against Missouri in Week 1 and a Week 4 game vs. BYU in Landover, MY. WVU will have two weeks to prep for the Cougars, who are at Arizona (Glendale actually), at Utah and at home vs. UCLA in the three previous weeks. The Mountaineers get their other open date leading into a road trip to Texas Tech.


To its advantage, WVU gets OU, Baylor and TCU at home, but the Frogs have two weeks to prep for the Mountaineers.


Rounding out the rest of the Big 12, I have Kansas State going 5-7, while Iowa State and KU will finish 4-8 and 2-10, respectively. Bill Snyder teams almost always turn out better than they look on paper, so the Wildcats could certainly go bowling again. They are off a 6-7 season and bring back five starters on offense and seven on ‘D.’


I just don’t feel like KSU measures up to the other Big 12 teams. Granted, the QB position was mired with injuries last year and that’s a situation that can ruin a season for most schools. But the Wildcats only beat two teams with winning records, and both of those Ws came at home to La. Tech in three OTs and vs. WVU (24-23) in a game where the Mountaineers held a 447-304 advantage in yardage. KSU finished the season minus 1,541 yards overall.


I like the hire of Matt Campbell in Ames, but Iowa State has won three games or fewer in three consecutive seasons. The Cyclones do have a stud RB in Mike Warren, who garnered (co) Big 12 Offensive Freshman of the Year honors after rushing for 1,339 yards and five TDs in ’15. QB Joel Lanning (10/4 TD-INT) will have to hold off Jacob Park for the starting QB position. Park was a highly-rated recruit for Georgia, but he transferred after one year in Athens.

 

[CNOTES]

AAC Betting Outlook
August 7, 2016



AAC West Preview


The young American Athletic Conference had a successful 2015 season with Houston earning a Peach Bowl spot and making the most of the opportunity with an upset win over Florida State. The Cougars lead the way in 2016 with a few other programs capable of making a splash in the West division as well.

FAVORITE: Houston


The Cougars went 8-1 in AAC play last season and wound up 13-1 on the season to finish as a top 10 nationally ranked team. That was all in the first season under Tom Herman and expectations will be very high again in 2016. The opener in Houston vs. Oklahoma will determine whether or not Houston remains on the national stage, but there is reason to believe Houston could have a bit more of a challenge in the division even if the Cougars are likely on track for another very successful season. Greg Ward will be on the Heisman Trophy short list even from a smaller conference in his senior season and the defense has room for improvement with a few suspect performances last season for a squad that has had charmed turnover fortune in recent years. The AAC road schedule has some hurdles for the Cougars with games at Cincinnati and at Navy as Houston will have the potential to get tripped up a few more times than last season despite being the clear favorite in this division and the conference as a whole.

CONTENDER: Navy


In its first season in conference play, Navy won the first seven AAC games before losing 52-31 at Houston late in the season. With a bowl win Navy wound up 11-2 for the most successful season in eight years under Ken Niumatalolo. Navy will get to host Houston this season looking to turn the tables and avoiding Cincinnati and Temple from the East provides a bit of a break in the schedule. Navy plays Notre Dame and Air Force out of the conference as matching last season’s record will be a challenge especially with nearly the entire starting offense being replaced from last season. While Navy will have a hard time matching last season’s success they should be the chief contender to Houston in this division as the defense should be strong and the biggest conference games will be at home where Navy wound up 7-0 last season.

SLEEPER: Tulsa


The Golden Hurricane made waves last season with a bowl berth, actually giving Virginia Tech all it could handle in a furious Independence Bowl rally, ultimately losing 55-52 as one of the bigger underdogs of the bowl season. Tulsa scored over 37 points per game last season as the offense thrived under Philip Montgomery and another step forward is possible even with a lot of ground to make up defensively. Houston dominated the conference last season while still allowing 384 yards per game as an elite defense won’t be necessary to win this division and Tulsa has a good shot to improve on last season’s 3-5 AAC record. Pulling East Carolina and UCF from the East is a scheduling advantage and while they also draw Cincinnati, that game will be the home finale. Tulsa would need some chaos in the division to have a real shot at claiming the top spot, but if there are a few upsets, the Hurricane appears poised to be the team that makes the leap with another solid bowl season likely ahead

IMPROVED: SMU


SMU has just three wins the past two seasons combined, but the Mustangs were pretty competitive last season in a switch to an up-tempo offense. SMU allowed big numbers on defense and typically ran out of gas late in games, but in the second season under Chad Morris, improvement is likely. The home schedule is daunting with three of the conference’s top teams playing in Dallas and with non-conference games against Big XII powers Baylor and TCU, a winning season looks like a reach. Expect SMU to perhaps get an upset or two along the way and the Mustangs look like a good candidate to double their win count from last season. Quarterback Matt Davis did a good job of limiting turnovers last season and the senior dual-threat that was initially at Texas A&M could be one of the most productive players in the conference.


SINKING: Memphis


The Tigers have 19 wins the past two seasons, but the program had 12 total wins the previous five seasons combined. Sinking back to the bottom of the conference looks unlikely, but staying above .500 is far from a given with heavy personnel losses from last season led by head coach Justin Fuente moving to Virginia Tech and quarterback Paxton Lynch now in the NFL. The Memphis defense actually regressed significantly from the 2014 squad and another year of decline is real possibility in 2016 with three of the team’s top four leading tacklers departed. Memphis has three fairly challenging non-conference games and the Tigers will play Cincinnati, South Florida, and Temple from the East, drawing likely the best three teams from the other side of the AAC. The four conference home games are all difficult and the 10-2 record in Memphis the past two seasons will be difficult to keep up for Mike Norvell in his first season as a head coach.


AAC East Preview


While Houston was the top AAC team last season, the East presented a deeper group of competition and that may again be the case in 2016. Four teams were at least 4-4 in league play last season and whoever emerges from the East this season will be a formidable team that could give presumed West champion Houston a great match in the championship.

FAVORITE: Cincinnati


The Bearcats disappointed at just 7-6 last season including only 4-4 in conference play. Three of four losses came on the road as Cincinnati’s defense could not match its offense. Injuries were also a factor for the Bearcats last season, but the upside is now two proven quarterbacks are on the roster. In 2016, Cincinnati will again have to play West favorite Houston, but that game along with a key game vs. South Florida will be at home. Cincinnati will be a threat to win all of its non-conference games although matchups with Purdue and BYU will not be easy. Overall, the schedule has a good balance with no consecutive road games and most of the toughest tests coming in Cincinnati where the Bearcats are 15-3 under Tommy Tuberville.

CONTENDER: South Florida


The Bulls took a big step last season going from 4-8 to 8-5 and this season, South Florida has a chance to go even further as a serious contender in the AAC. A big advantage for the Bulls is a favorable West draw with Houston notably absent, but the four road games in league play all have some risks including facing the top East division contenders away from Tampa. South Florida has three fairly difficult non-conference tests as well including hosting Florida State as a climb to a double-digit win season looks like perhaps a reach. Still, South Florida has most of its key players back from a team that was excellent defensively in conference play last season and features a formidable running game led by quarterback Quinton Flowers and running back Marlon Mack. South Florida could have a tough September, but the Bulls should not be forgotten as they could cruise in the final two months.


SLEEPER: Temple


Being the defending division champion might disqualify Temple from sleeper status, but the Owls are expected by most to decline this season and they still have the potential to contend. Seniors lead the key offensive positions and the program has featured consistently sound defense in three seasons under Matt Rhule. The schedule for the Owls is very appealing with no Houston, Navy, or Tulsa from the West and South Florida and Cincinnati are playing in Philadelphia. Temple had several underwhelming offensive performances last season in an also favorable schedule, but they did play Houston much tougher than the misleading 24-13 final score in the conference championship game, actually out-gaining Houston by nearly 50 yards, but burned on key turnovers. Most saw Temple’s strong season coming last year, but the Owls appear to be getting overlooked in 2016 despite maintaining some potential.

IMPROVED: Connecticut


If Connecticut had Temple’s schedule, they would be a serious East contender, but the Huskies have a tough draw, getting both Houston and Navy on the road in the pull from the West division. The Owls also play South Florida on the road and the non-conference schedule lacks easy outs with three games vs. ACC teams. With nearly all of last season’s offense back, Connecticut looks likely to improve its meager scoring from the past two years and the Huskies proved formidable defensively last season including being the only team to beat Houston. Ultimately, the schedule will likely prevent a significant rise in record for the Huskies, but this will be a much better team in Bob Diaco’s third season and they could catch a few of the contenders as an upset threat.

SINKING: East Carolina


After three straight winning seasons, East Carolina fell to 5-7 last season, even with a big September upset over Virginia Tech. Five defeats came by 10 or fewer points and the Pirates lost their starting quarterback right before the season started. Ruffin McNeill was let go in a surprising coaching change and it could be a significant transition for the program. Checkered transfer quarterback Phillip Nelson is hoping to be a stopgap for the offense, but matching the very productive run the Pirates had under McNeill looks challenging. The defense also slipped last season and several of the top players on defense are no longer with the team. The non-conference schedule is grueling with three ACC & SEC foes in succession and all four AAC road games look like games the Pirates will be dogged in. Scottie Montgomery has experience under some excellent coaches and could eventually get the job done in Greenville, but the Pirates might hit rock bottom in 2016.

 

[CNOTES]

2016 SEC Preview
August 7, 2016


Rolling With The Tide


When Alabama captured last year’s College Football Playoffs it marked the eighth time in the last 10 years that an SEC school claimed the National Championship.


Speaking of the Tide, for the 2nd time in the last 5 years, Alabama had 5 players selected in the Top 50 of this year’s NFL draft. In fact, looking back at the over the last 5 years the top 10 picks in the NFL draft has seen the following conference breakdown: SEC 20, Big 12 10, Pac-12 8, ACC 7, MAC 2, AAC/Big Ten/Independent 1 each.


Take Your Choice


In Las Vegas, Alabama and LSU lead the 2016 SEC win totals brigade at 10 apiece, followed by Tennessee at 9.5. Next in line are Georgia and Ole Miss at 8.5 wins, followed by Arkansas and Florida at 7.5. Auburn, Mississippi State and Texas A&M are next in line with 6.5 wins, with Texas A&M right on their heels with 6.


If the oddsmakers are correct – and they usually are - that would mean 10 teams from the nation’s most powerful league would earn bowl berths.


On the outside looking in are Missouri with 5.5, with Kentucky, South Carolina and Vanderbilt rounding things out with 5 victories.


Coordinate This


According to TigerBait.com, for the second year in a row there have been football coordinator shifts at a majority of the Southeastern Conference schools.


Four teams made no changes – Arkansas, Florida, Ole Miss and Vanderbilt. All four of those teams increased their victory total in 2015.


Two head coaches fired offensive coordinators – Mark Stoops dismissed Shannon Dawson at Kentucky and Kevin Sumlin replaced Jake Spavital at Texas A&M. One head coach fired a defensive coordinator – Butch Jones dismissed John Jancek at Tennessee.


Alabama and Auburn will have new defensive coordinators after Kirby Smart and Will Muschamp became the head coaches at Georgia and South Carolina, respectively. LSU and Mississippi State had their defensive coordinators make lateral moves – Kevin Steele to Auburn and Manny Diaz to Miami. Ole Miss’ Hugh Freeze is the only head coach who will have the same coordinators for a third straight season.


Note: Numbers following team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, along with the number of returning linemen, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback.


2016 SEC EAST PREVIEW


FLORIDA (Offense – *6/3, Defense – 6/2, 48 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: SLIP SLIDING


Somehow, despite an offense that slipped 7 points and 34 yards per game last season, the Gators slid into a 10-win campaign to begin the Jim McElwain era. Year Two finds two new quarterbacks battling for starting honors with redshirt sophomore Luke Del Rio holding a slight edge over Purdue transfer Austin Appleby. The real strength of the team, though is its defense, led by Caleb Brantley and a 10-deep defensive line loaded with 5 and 4-star talent. In addition, Eddy Pineiro, the No. 1 JUCO kicker in the land, brings a long-range leg to the program. After being deeply gutted last year, underclassmen made a total of 134 starts in 2015, the 5th most in the land.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Gators tied with lowly Kansas for the 3rd worst red zone offense last season.


PLAY AGAINST: at Tennessee (9/24)

GEORGIA (Offense – *8/3, Defense – 6/1, 43 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: SMART MOVE


A new era begins in Athens where new HC Kirby Smart now walks in legendary Mark Richt’s shoes after the Bulldogs let a malcontent Richt go – despite compiling a 146-51 mark in 15 years between the hedges. QB Greyson Lambert started 12 of 13 games last season while setting the NCAA record for completion percentage in a game when he connected on 24-of-25 passes against South Carolina. RBs Nick Chubb and Sony Michel complete a powerful punch in the backfield. The Dawgs led the SEC in pass defense last season and all 4 starters return. Speaking of which, Smart started at safety for Georgia from 1995-98 and was Alabama’s DC the past 9 seasons. He looks to be a keen hire, indeed.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Thirty-one of the Bulldogs’ 51 losses under Mark Richt were by 7 points or less.


PASS


KENTUCKY (Offense - 9/4, Defense – 6/2, 43 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: ON THE CLOCK


The critical 4th year of the Mark Stoops era in Lexington kicks off with plenty of promise. Behind a defense that’s made solid gains each of the past 2 seasons, the Wildcats turn to a favorable schedule which features 7 home games, with no back-to-back road games. JR RB Boom Williams, who set a single-season school record by averaging 7.1 yards per carry last year, leads a deep rushing corps with 1,341 yards and 11 TDs on 195 carries. Still, it’s been 6 straight losing seasons as the wear and tear of facing the nation’s 5th most difficult schedule in 2015 buried the Cats when they went 0-7 to close out the campaign. The clock is ticking for Stoops’ troops.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: After completing a $120M “reimagining” of Commonwealth Stadium last year, Kentucky debuts a new $45M practice complex this season.


PLAY ON: vs. Vanderbilt (10/8)


MISSOURI (Offense – *5/1, Defense – 8/4, 45 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: TIGER BLOOD


To say it was a tough year for the Tigers last season is an understatement of major proportions. Gary Pinkel, the winningest coach in program history, announced his retirement following a diagnosis with lymphoma. One-day prior, the team successfully protested an on-campus racial incident that led to the university president’s resignation. And former starting QB Maty Mauk was tossed from the team for violating team policies. In the end, Mizzou went from 11 wins to 5, putting a merciful end to a calamitous season. It’s 2016 and former DC Barry Odom takes over as head coach hoping new OC Josh Heupel (BYU) can instill a ray of life into a program desperately in need of a transfusion.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Tigers are 23-1 SU and 17-5 ATS the last 3 years in games where they outgain their opponent.


PASS

SOUTH CAROLINA (Offense – *4/2, Defense – 6/2, 44 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: LONG AND ROCKY ROAD


We agree that new head coach Will Muschamp didn’t walk into a great situation. The Gamecocks’ 1st-year coach acknowledged his team has a shocking lack of talent. “We need to have more playmakers. We don’t have too much depth. On defense, the secondary is a concern just for coverage ability down the field.” It’s not like a lot of injuries caused USC’s 3-9 slide last year and all those players are healthy now. The Gamecocks’ systematic failure in recruiting since the middle of a 33-6 3-year run has left them well behind what they’re about to face this season. “It means we’ve got some good walk-ons here,” said Muschamp. As in “Good enough to play over guys we put on scholarship." Gulp.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Gamecocks were outscored by 10.2 PPG and outyarded by 109 YPG versus conference foes, worst in the SEC last season.


PASS


TENNESSEE (Offense – *9/4, Defense – 8/3, 57 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: ORANGE SWARM


Head coach Butch Jones has improved the Vols’ win total by 2 games each of the last two years. That’s an improvement of leaps and bounds for a team that was stuck on 5 wins for three years running after he took the reins in 2013. The surge started in 2014 after Tennessee played 23 true freshmen – the most in the nation – the year prior, and then followed it up with 240 total returning starts in 2015. UT is loaded with returning starters this year, including SR QB Joshua Dobbs (14-5 over his last 19 starts) and a group of underclassmen that made 143 starts last season (2nd most in the nation). Once again, beware of the Vols.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Vols’ combined margin of defeat of 17 points was the fewest of any FBS program that finished with 3 or more losses last season.


PASS


VANDERBILT (Offense – *8/3, Defense – 7/2, 58 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: A WHOLE NEW SPIN ON THE MASON JAR


After 26 players made their first FBS start for Derek Mason’s fledgling team in 2014, a total of 123 overall starts were made by underclassmen last season. Vanderbilt’s youth movement paid off in 2015, as it was one of the nation's most improved defenses under Mason’s direction. He’ll continue to handle the defensive coordinator chores for the second straight year in 2016, welcoming back 5 of his top 6 tacklers. Expect 6 new coaches on the staff this year to stress ball protection and takeaways. In their recent 3-year bowl run, the 'Dores were a combined +8 in turnover margin. They own a jarring -24 in turnover margin the last 2 years under Mason.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Commodores are 0-15 SU and 2-13 ATS in Game Six of the season the last 15 years.


PLAY ON: at Western Kentucky (9/24)


2016 SEC WEST PREVIEW

ALABAMA (Offense – 6/3, Defense – 5/1, 48 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: THREE’S COMPANY


As has become the rule, the Tide was hit hard with graduation losses and NFL defections once again this year. But before shedding a tear, it’s a well-known fact that Alabama has significantly out-recruited teams each of the last 5 years – meaning all they do is re-load. It’s easy to do when your coach is 110-18, with 4 conference and 4 national championships, at the school. And your team has made an NCAA record 63 bowl appearances. Beware: Alabama freshmen started a combined 57 games last season, meaning the losses they incurred will be filled in like magic putty, making the Tide’s primary goal this season to win a 3rd straight SEC title for the first time since 1977-79.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Tide was the first team to win back-to-back SEC titles last year since 1997-98 Tennessee.


PLAY ON: at Mississippi (9/17)

ARKANSAS (Offense – 5/2, Defense – 9/3, 52 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: HARD-TRYING HOGS


A 6-2 finish squashed a dismal 2-4 start last season, sending the Hogs to a 3rd straight bowl game under HC Bret Beilema. Behind a stripped-down offense, the Razorbacks will rely on a defense that could be tremendous up front. If new defensive assistant Paul Rhoads (a former defensive coordinator and head coach at Iowa State the past 8 seasons) can make a difference, it could make the Razorbacks a force on that side of the ball. But replacing all-SEC QB Brandon Allen (3,340 yards, 30 TDs and 8 INTs) and all SEC RB Alex Collins (1,577 yards, 20 TDs) on offense will be a daunting task. Tackling 10 foes with winning records last year makes it even more problematical.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Razorbacks tied with South Carolina for the fewest fumbles lost (3) last season.


PLAY ON: vs. Texas A&M (9/24)


AUBURN (Offense – *6/3, Defense – 6/3, 53 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: DON’T FUSS WITH GUS


Arguably the most disappointing team in college football last season, the Tigers (picked to win the conference title and make the College Football Playoff by many respected scribes) look to reverse their misfortune with a helping hand from the schedule maker. Opening the season with 5 consecutive home games while having no back-to-back road games, Auburn will take to the highway a mere 4 times this campaign. Granted, 7 of its first 8 games come against bowl teams, but 4 of them are SEC revengers. New DC Kevin Steele comes over from LSU looking to patch a defense that has surrendered 408 YPG under Malzahn’s tenure. Expect 2016 to be the year of the Tiger in the SEC.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Tigers are 29-0 SU at home in non-conference games since 2007.


PLAY ON: as a dog at Georgia (11/12)

LSU (Offense – *9/3, Defense – 9/4, 49 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: EYE OF THE TIGER


He’s back… although he never left. And for what seems like the umpteenth time, head coach Les Miles’ threat to leave LSU last year once again never took place. Thus, the Mad Hatter welcomes back a powerful class loaded with experience, and RB Leonard Fournette, who is a frontrunner in the Heisman Trophy race. Unlike Miles’ threats that never seem to materialize, the Tigers finally reversed a bad trend last year that had seen them regress each of the previous three years in the SEC West standings. Now, behind a team that won its first 7 contests last year, and with no back-to-back road games in sight this season, the Bengals have the distinct look of a tiger possessed.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Tigers’ seniors started a combined 34 games last season, the fewest in the nation.


PLAY ON: vs. Mississippi (10/22)

MISSISSIPPI (Offense – *3/0, Defense – 5/2, 61 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: FREEZER BURN


QB Chad Kelly, nephew of Buffalo Bills’ great Jim Kelly, and the SEC Newcomer of the Year and All-SEC second team selection last year, returns. Kelly broke or tied 14 single-season school records while leading the SEC in passing, total offense and TD passes. Meanwhile, head coach Hugh Freeze is the first Ole Miss coach to lead his teams to bowl appearances in each of his first 4 seasons at the helm. He’s also led the Rebels to back-to-back 9-win seasons for the first time since 1962. Unfortunately, the team was not only heavily burned by graduation losses and NFL player defections – the biggest being DT Robert Nkemdiche – but they must also take on 10 bowl teams.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Freeze is 28-4 SU and 21-6 ATS in games versus .500 or less opponents, including 11-0 ATS vs. non-conference foes.


PASS

MISSISSIPPI STATE (Offense – 6/3, Defense – 7/2, 43 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: NICE WHILE IT LASTED


After losing a quarterback that put up some of the most impressive numbers in SEC history, Mississippi State is in a pinch – in more ways than one. QB Dak Prescott has started for the Bulldogs each of the last 3 seasons, setting 28 school records, including total offensive yards, touchdowns, passing yards, passing touchdowns, passing efficiency, and on and on. Head coach Dan Mullen must also replace his rushing leader from last season – that also being Prescott. Worse, DC Manny Diaz left after one year to join Mark Richt at Miami. In addition, their leading tackler and best interior linemen have moved onto the NFL. Road games at Alabama, LSU and Ole Miss ensure a sizable step back in 2016.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Bulldogs were the worst team in the nation in fewest fumbles recovered (1) last season – 14 fewer than the top team.


PLAY AGAINST: vs. Auburn (10/8)

TEXAS A&M (Offense – 6/2, Defense – 6/2, 50 Lettermen)


TEAM THEME: OFFENSIVE MUSICAL MAKEOVER


Oklahoma graduate transfer Trevor Knight assumes the quarterback reins in 2016. Knight, who was beaten out by Baker Mayfield last year, was a 2-year starter and led the Sooners to a Sugar Bowl victory against Alabama as a redshirt freshman in 2013. The Aggies lost previous blue chip starting signal callers Kyle Allen (who transferred to Houston) and Kyler Murray (Oklahoma) earlier this offseason. Kevin Sumlin’s 2nd-highest-paid coaching staff has added new OC Noel Mazzone, who worked wonders with Brett Hundley and Josh Rosen at UCLA. Meanwhile, prized former LSU DC John Chavis helped tighten things up defensively in 2015 as the Aggies improved 71 YPG – despite taking on the 10th toughest schedule in the land.


STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The overall stats winner has won SU in each of the last 16 Aggies’ games.


PLAY ON: at Alabama (10/22)

 

[CNOTES]

ACC Betting Outlook
August 5, 2016



ACC Coastal Preview


In several recent seasons there have been some underwhelming ACC Coastal champions but last season North Carolina raised the bar for the division going 8-0 and giving Clemson a great battle in the championship game.


The Coastal won the ACC Championship four straight seasons from 2007-2010 but the Atlantic has been the powerhouse since and that is expected to be the case this season. There are a few Coastal squads with a chance to make some noise however.


FAVORITE: Miami, FL


The Hurricanes have failed to reach the double-digit win count that the stature of the program commands in 12 straight seasons. Mark Richt will be the fourth Miami head coach in that run and after sustained success at Georgia for 15 years he returns to his alma mater. The Hurricanes have the potential to have a strong 2016 season as the team will have a less demanding non-conference schedule than in several recent seasons and the ACC slate also lines up reasonably well. Miami won’t play Clemson or Louisville and the meeting with Florida State will be at home. A team that is just 4-7 in road games the past two seasons should have a chance to have stronger road results this season even though they have games in Blacksburg and South Bend in back-to-back October weeks. Miami’s roster is loaded with talent and experience on offense and the defense should have the opportunity to improve after a step-back 2015 season. Despite the coaching change Miami still wound up 8-5 last season with a 5-3 ACC record and the three conference losses came against teams that went a combined 23-1 in the ACC regular season.

CONTENDER: North Carolina


North Carolina went 8-0 in ACC play last season before losing in the championship game but they did draw a favorable path pulling NC State and Wake Forest from the Atlantic. Wake Forest is traded for Florida State this season but the Tar Heels are still a serious contender in this division. Three of North Carolina’s conference road wins came by slim margins last year and two of the four road games appear to be of the very difficult variety this season. A tough opening two weeks is also ahead with the Tar Heels facing Georgia and Illinois in non-conference action away from home and for a squad with a new quarterback and several departures on defense it will be difficult to match last season’s 11-3 campaign. North Carolina still allowed 436 yards per game last season and in the final four games of the season including the bowl loss to Baylor the Tar Heels surrendered 155 points as the defense will need to show improvement to keep UNC on top of the division.


SLEEPER: Virginia Tech

It will be a transition season with Justin Fuente replacing the legendary Frank Beamer for Virginia Tech. Fuente had a successful four-year run at Memphis and he has kept much of the defensive staff in tact from Beamer’s administration. The Hokies have two extremely difficult non-conference games as getting back to the national spotlight looks unlikely in 2016 but in Coastal division where 6-2 might be enough Virginia Tech has a promising opportunity to be in the mix. Virginia Tech draws Boston College and Syracuse from the Atlantic as they will avoid the heavyweight ACC contenders and while they have a few difficult road games in the division, the program has featured a winning road record in six of the last seven seasons. Fuente should be able to improve on a surprising 5-8 record in Blacksburg the past two seasons and keeping a long bowl streak for the program looks very realistic with the Hokies a possibility to emerge in the ACC race.

IMPROVED: Georgia Tech


The Yellow Jackets went from going 11-3 in 2014 to just 3-9 last season and Paul Johnson’s ninth-season in Atlanta looks likely to be a bounce-back campaign. Despite the ugly record the Yellow Jackets outscored their opposition on the season but wound up with six losses by eight or fewer points. A rise back to the top of the Coastal looks unlikely as they face a difficult conference road schedule, although one break is only facing three true ACC road games with the meeting with Boston College to open the season being played in Ireland. Facing Clemson as well as tough non-conference games with Vanderbilt and Georgia could temper the success to only modest improvement in 2016 but with a decent group of returning players getting back to the bowl picture looks realistic. The 2015 defense for Georgia Tech was significantly stronger statistically than the far more successful 2014 defense but the offense took a big step back and there is room for a step forward in 2016.

SINKING: Pittsburgh


The Panthers have had some tough luck with its coaching staffs bolting in recent years and after three seasona Paul Chryst left for the Wisconsin position prior to last season. Pat Narduzzi wound up having a successful first season with the Panthers going 8-5 in 2015 even after a disappointing bowl loss for the best Pittsburgh season since 2010, the year the team relieved Dave Wannstedt. The Panthers have decent experience returning on both sides of the ball in 2016 but a decline may be possible as the non-conference schedule will be upgraded with three formidable games ahead. In ACC play the Panthers also pick-up a road game with Clemson while also facing two top Coastal contenders North Carolina and Miami on the road. Four of six ACC wins last season came by seven or fewer points for Pittsburgh and on the season the Panthers barely had a positive point differential despite the solid record. Ultimately a lot went right for Pittsburgh last season and the 2016 squad looks like one that might teeter right on the bowl cut line.

ACC Atlantic Preview


The ACC Atlantic has produced five straight ACC champions with three Florida State titles in succession bookended by a Clemson title in 2011 and last season, with the Tigers and the 2014 Seminoles also making it to the College Football Playoff.


Those two teams appear to be the heavy favorites in 2016 with the October 29 meeting likely deciding this division, as well as deciding the likely ACC title favorite and a serious national contender.

FAVORITE: Florida State


While Clemson returns one of the top Heisman Trophy candidates in quarterback DeShaun Watson, Florida State should be consider the favorite in 2016 in the Atlantic. The Seminoles return nearly its entire offense from last season and the defense has a chance to improve for the second straight season and get closer to the numbers posted in 2013’s BCS Championship season. The schedule is far from easy with an opener in Orlando vs. Ole Miss plus road games at Louisville and at Miami but Florida State will host Clemson as well as the season finale with Florida. The Seminoles have enough weight in their schedule to be a national playoff contender even if they take a loss at some point provided they still win the division and the subsequent ACC title game with the Atlantic champion poised to be a solid favorite over whatever team emerges from the Coastal division.


CONTENDER: Clemson


The path for Clemson into the national picture might be more favorable as if the Tigers get by a tough opening game with Auburn on the road as they should be a solid favorite in every other game except for the huge late October clash in Tallahassee. While Dabo Swinney will return a good portion of the offense that led the team to a 14-1 season and runner-up finish in the College Football Playoff, the defense has some serious question marks. For the second straight season only a few starters return and despite the success last season, statistically the 2015 squad was much worse defensively than the 2014 team that suffered three losses. While the schedule will give Clemson a good shot at a sixth straight double-digit win season the two biggest games of the season are road games. The Coastal draw for the Tigers is more favorable than Florida State’s pull but ultimately it is hard to see the Atlantic champion not being the winner of the Clemson/Florida State game and the Tigers have won in Tallahassee once in 12 meetings since 1993.

SLEEPER: Louisville


The Cardinals were considered a national sleeper by some last season but they opened the season 0-3. Losing to Auburn proved to be a less impressive showing than expected last season but Houston and Clemson wound up being teams that combined to go 27-2 last season and Louisville lost those two games by three-points each. Bobby Petrino has an experienced roster and after juggling quarterbacks last season there should be more continuity for the offense this season. Louisville will play Florida State at home early in the season but there are tough road games ahead including challenging non-conference games with Marshall and Houston. In the Atlantic Louisville could have a chance however as they draw Duke and Virginia from the Coastal division and if they can score an upset over one of the top two teams they could have a chance to sneak into the division race even if running the table and being a player in the national picture looks unlikely.

IMPROVED: Wake Forest


After growing a Bowling Green program that has had continued success, Dave Clawson took a challenging job at Wake Forest before the 2014 season. Back-to-back 3-9 campaigns have been difficult but in his third season in Winston-Salem he will have a veteran roster and a schedule that should allow for improvement. The Demon Deacons figure to be favored in three of four non-conference games while ACC home games with Syracuse, Virginia, and Boston College are games Wake Forest should have a reasonable chance in even with a 2-14 combined record in the conference the past two seasons. Four of the team’s losses came by eight or fewer points last season and getting the program to a bowl game for the first time since 2011 looks like realistic possibility.

SINKING: NC State


While Jacoby Brissett didn’t wind up with quite the career some envisioned as a highly touted Florida transfer he was still a great college quarterback that will be missed for the Wolfpack. NC State has been in back-to-back owl games under Dave Doeren but each the past two seasons has featured 4-0 starts to the season through very weak non-conference schedules. This season NC State is hosting Notre Dame while also playing at known ACC upset-maker East Carolina as getting two thirds of the way to bowl eligibility in non-ACC games is unlikely this season. Add that NC State has pulled formidable Miami and North Carolina teams from the Coastal draw while also playing two of the three projected top Atlantic teams on the road it could be a challenging year in Raleigh. Doeren is just 6-18 in ACC play in three seasons and the Wolfpack will likely be dogged in at least five of eight ACC games this season.

 

[CNOTES]

STATS FCS Top 25: No. 1 Bison hungry for more
August 8, 2016


(STATS) - They've filled an entire hand with national championship rings.


Yet the North Dakota State Bison never allow themselves to become satisfied.


Not when there's a whole other hand to start filling this season.


Unsurprisingly, North Dakota State will enter the 2016 season as FCS' prohibitive favorite yet again. Having won an NCAA-record five straight national titles, the Bison earned 152 of the 158 first-place votes Monday in the STATS FCS Preseason Top 25.


Yes, it's still a Bison world until proven otherwise.


"To me, it's business as usual," said third-year coach Chris Klieman, whose team whipped Jacksonville State 37-10 in the national title game to finish 13-2 last season.


"Stay humble, stay hungry. We've got a long ways to go. What you did yesterday is great, but it pales in comparison to what you can do today. 2015 was dynamite; it's a new season, a new team and our goal is the same as it's always going to be and has been for a long time - be in the position to compete for the Missouri Valley Conference championship."


The Missouri Valley is regarded as the strongest conference in the FCS and North Dakota State has won at least a share of its last five titles. This year's team returns 14 starters and resolved any potential starting quarterback questions when Easton Stick went 8-0 last season while replacing an injured Carson Wentz.


Stick will have plenty of help, as NDSU will roll out its power run game, led by senior tailback King Frazier, complementing a defense that has been the best in the nation while the Bison have built their dynasty. Linebacker Nick DeLuca and defensive end Greg Menard lead this year's unit.


The Bison are followed in the Top 5 by Sam Houston State, which earned two first-place votes; Jacksonville State, which earned the other four; Richmond; and Northern Iowa. Over the past two postseasons, NDSU has knocked out all of them.


Last year, Southland Conference power Sam Houston (11-4) reached the national semifinals for the fourth time in five seasons before falling to Jacksonville State. Quarterback Jeremiah Briscoe will be at the controls of coach K.C. Keeler's Bearkats offense, which was top-ranked in the FCS last season.


Speaking of explosive offenses, Jacksonville State (13-2) returns All-America quarterback Eli Jenkins and top wide receiver Josh Barge. Plus, the two-time defending Ohio Valley Conference champions are motivated following their disappointing finish against North Dakota State.


"We did not give them our best shot, so we want to get back to that game and play well," coach John Grass said. "You can live with it if you played well, but we didn't. We have a hunger to get back there, but you have to take it week-by-week as each week is its own season."


Richmond (10-4) returns its quarterback, Kyle Lauletta, as well. But the Spiders, who earned a three-way share of the CAA Football title, are particularly well-rounded. They return eight starters on each side of the ball.


Northern Iowa (9-4) will butt heads with NDSU in the Missouri Valley, and the physical Panthers pose the biggest threat with two returning 1,000-yard rushers: quarterback Aaron Bailey and running back Tyvis Smith.


The rest of the Top 10 is No. 6 Chattanooga (9-4), which has won three straight Southern Conference titles; Charleston Southern (10-3), the defending Big South champ which opens the FCS season Aug. 27 against North Dakota State in the FCS Kickoff; South Dakota State (8-4) from the Missouri Valley; William & Mary (9-4), a defending CAA co-champ; and Illinois State (10-2), a defending Missouri Valley co-champ.


Defending Southland champ McNeese State (10-1) was No. 11, followed by James Madison (9-3), another CAA champ last season; Montana (8-5); Eastern Washington (6-5); The Citadel (9-4), which shared the Southern Conference title; Coastal Carolina (9-3), which is playing an independent schedule in its final season on the FCS level; Portland State (9-3); Northern Arizona (7-4); North Dakota (7-4); and Western Illinois (7-6).


Rounding out the Top 25 were No. 21 Colgate (9-4), the defending Patriot League champ; New Hampshire (7-5); Villanova (6-5); Towson (7-4); and North Carolina A&T (10-2), which won a share of the MEAC title.


The first teams outside the rankings were Youngstown State and Fordham.


The power conferences ruled the preseason Top 25 with the CAA collecting six selections, and the Big Sky and Missouri Valley gaining five apiece. Nine conferences had at least one representative.


A national panel of sports information and media relations directors, broadcasters, writers and other dignitaries select the STATS FCS Top 25. In the voting, a first-place vote is worth 25 points, a second-place vote 24 points, all the way down to one point for a 25th-place vote.


The Top 25 is released every Monday afternoon during the regular season, except for Sunday morning, Nov. 20, prior to the selection of the 24-team FCS playoff field. A final Top 25 will follow the FCS championship game, which will be held Jan. 7 in Frisco, Texas.