2016 College Football Betting Preview: Ole Miss Rebels
Plenty of drama in the off-season for the Ole Miss Rebels, but one thing is for sure, if they remain healthy, and out of trouble, they have a load of talent. The schedule for Ole Miss is the one thing that is going to keep them out of that national title picture.
The Rebels 2016 schedule is brutal. The offense should be able to put points on the board again this season, and the defense has some big nasties. Let’s take a look at the Ole Miss Rebels for the 2016 season. Here is their 2016 College Football Betting Preview.
Rebels Offense
Chad Kelly should be the main man in the Ole Miss offense. The Senior Quarterback has had all sorts of drama, but is ready to put those things behind him and use guys like Damore’ea Stringellow and Quincy Adeboyejo to score, and score often.
The Rebels have 7 starters back on offense. The running back position is there there are some question marks for this Hugh Freeze led team. It looks like Jordan Wilkins will get the first opportunity, while Akeem Judd is a guy to look out for.
Ole Miss Defense
There are 7 guys that Hugh Freeze will bring back from last season on the Ole Miss defense. The biggest name is defensive end Marquis Haynes. The Junior is quite the nuisance for opposing offenses.
Guys like Fador Brown, Tony Bridges and Kendarius Webster got great experience a season ago, and should be ready to compete every down. The Rebels offense is going to score, the big question – will the defense be able to do their share of the work as well?
Ole Miss 2016 Opponents
Anytime you play out of the SEC; you are going to find yourself playing a pretty tough schedule. That is the case with the 2016 Ole Miss Rebels. The Rebels do not play a true road game until October 15th, but they start the season with a neutral site game against one of the top teams in the nation; Florida State.
Following that, the Rebels will host Wofford, but then welcome Alabama, Georgia and Memphis to town. Just when you thought things may get easier, the Rebels will play back to back road games at Arkansas and LSU. Home games against Auburn and Georgia Southern come up next for the Rebels.
The final three games of the season for Ole Miss include games at Texas A+M, at Vanderbilt, and a home game with Mississippi State.
Betting on the Rebels
It just not seem like a season where you would want to bet on the Ole Miss Rebels to win the national title. Not only do they face Alabama and LSU in conference play, they also start the season against Florida State.
Those are three of the top teams in the country. The schedule is too tough for Ole Miss. The 32/1 odds is not real enticing. To win the SEC is a tough task as well. The Ole Miss Rebels can be had at +300 (at Bookmaker) to win the SEC, behind Alabama and LSU.
You saw the Ole Miss schedule, how many wins are on that schedule? You can bet over or under 8.5 on the Ole Miss Rebels in 2016. What a game that Week 1 tilt will be. Actually, Ole Miss is +5 against Florida State at most of our top sportsbooks.
Plenty of drama in the off-season for the Ole Miss Rebels, but one thing is for sure, if they remain healthy, and out of trouble, they have a load of talent. The schedule for Ole Miss is the one thing that is going to keep them out of that national title picture.
The Rebels 2016 schedule is brutal. The offense should be able to put points on the board again this season, and the defense has some big nasties. Let’s take a look at the Ole Miss Rebels for the 2016 season. Here is their 2016 College Football Betting Preview.
Rebels Offense
Chad Kelly should be the main man in the Ole Miss offense. The Senior Quarterback has had all sorts of drama, but is ready to put those things behind him and use guys like Damore’ea Stringellow and Quincy Adeboyejo to score, and score often.
The Rebels have 7 starters back on offense. The running back position is there there are some question marks for this Hugh Freeze led team. It looks like Jordan Wilkins will get the first opportunity, while Akeem Judd is a guy to look out for.
Ole Miss Defense
There are 7 guys that Hugh Freeze will bring back from last season on the Ole Miss defense. The biggest name is defensive end Marquis Haynes. The Junior is quite the nuisance for opposing offenses.
Guys like Fador Brown, Tony Bridges and Kendarius Webster got great experience a season ago, and should be ready to compete every down. The Rebels offense is going to score, the big question – will the defense be able to do their share of the work as well?
Ole Miss 2016 Opponents
Anytime you play out of the SEC; you are going to find yourself playing a pretty tough schedule. That is the case with the 2016 Ole Miss Rebels. The Rebels do not play a true road game until October 15th, but they start the season with a neutral site game against one of the top teams in the nation; Florida State.
Following that, the Rebels will host Wofford, but then welcome Alabama, Georgia and Memphis to town. Just when you thought things may get easier, the Rebels will play back to back road games at Arkansas and LSU. Home games against Auburn and Georgia Southern come up next for the Rebels.
The final three games of the season for Ole Miss include games at Texas A+M, at Vanderbilt, and a home game with Mississippi State.
Betting on the Rebels
It just not seem like a season where you would want to bet on the Ole Miss Rebels to win the national title. Not only do they face Alabama and LSU in conference play, they also start the season against Florida State.
Those are three of the top teams in the country. The schedule is too tough for Ole Miss. The 32/1 odds is not real enticing. To win the SEC is a tough task as well. The Ole Miss Rebels can be had at +300 (at Bookmaker) to win the SEC, behind Alabama and LSU.
You saw the Ole Miss schedule, how many wins are on that schedule? You can bet over or under 8.5 on the Ole Miss Rebels in 2016. What a game that Week 1 tilt will be. Actually, Ole Miss is +5 against Florida State at most of our top sportsbooks.
2016 College Football Betting Preview: Washington Huskies
The Washington Huskies have got to be tired of hearing the same names over and over in the Pac-12. The Oregon Ducks, the Stanford Cardinal and the USC Trojans are names we have heard from many years. Even the Arizona Wildcats and California Bears get more credit, and heck Arizona State has been heard of as well.
Now is the time for Washington to figure out how to get on the national title picture. The Huskies are many pundits choice to come away with the title out of the Big 12 in 2016. Here is a 2016 College Football Preview for the Washington Huskies.
Washington Lost just Four Starters
The offense from a season ago for the Washington Huskies lost just four players. Those players will have quick replacements in the Huskies offense. Jake Browning, the quarterback should be ahead of K.J. Carta-Samuels, but both may get chances to play throughout the season.
Myles Gaskin and Lavon Coleman will get the carries in the back field, while Brayden Lenius, Isaiah Renford and Dante Pettis are the top receivers for the Huskies. Washington tends to use a two tight end set at time, which should give Drew Sample and Darrell Daniels some looks.
Huskies Defense also Features Returnees
Not just the offense for the Washington Huskies has guys returning from a season ago. The defense has talent back, and big, strong, fast guys that should fare well against Pac-12 offenses. The Huskies will use Joe Mathis as their stud defensive end, and he will be joined by Elijah Qualls, Greg Gaines, Keishawn Bierria and Azeem Victor.
The Huskies are one of the top recruiting schools this past off-season, so be sure to realize youngsters are going to be seen on the field early and often!
Huskies 2016 Schedule
The Washington Huskies start the season with a trio of home games in which, let’s be honest – they should win, and win big. The Huskies host Rutgers, Idaho and then Portland State. Following that, Washington will start Pac-12 play with a road game at Arizona.
The final game in a five week September will be on a Friday night against Stanford. Three out of the next four games are on the road for Washington. The first is at Oregon, and the final two are at Utah and California. The lone home game during that time will be against the Oregon State Beavers.
The final trio of games for Washington are at home against USC, at home against Arizona State, and then on the road at the Washington State Cougars.
Betting on Washington
It’s not real often you talk about the Washington Huskies winning the national title, but maybe this is their opportunity. The Huskies have a tough schedule, but will need to have many things go the right way for this to happen.
Washington is listed at 45/1 at MyBookie to win the national title. The Washington Huskies are the largest win total in the Pac-12. The Huskies are listed at 9 wins, and you have the chance to bet the over or the under. Maybe, you want to bet on the Huskies to win the Pac-12; take a chance, and go for it.
The odds are just as good as any other team. Pretty much grab them at even money. The Washington Huskies have a cupcake game in Week 1 against Rutgers. You can grab the Huskies at -235 over at BetDSI.
The Washington Huskies have got to be tired of hearing the same names over and over in the Pac-12. The Oregon Ducks, the Stanford Cardinal and the USC Trojans are names we have heard from many years. Even the Arizona Wildcats and California Bears get more credit, and heck Arizona State has been heard of as well.
Now is the time for Washington to figure out how to get on the national title picture. The Huskies are many pundits choice to come away with the title out of the Big 12 in 2016. Here is a 2016 College Football Preview for the Washington Huskies.
Washington Lost just Four Starters
The offense from a season ago for the Washington Huskies lost just four players. Those players will have quick replacements in the Huskies offense. Jake Browning, the quarterback should be ahead of K.J. Carta-Samuels, but both may get chances to play throughout the season.
Myles Gaskin and Lavon Coleman will get the carries in the back field, while Brayden Lenius, Isaiah Renford and Dante Pettis are the top receivers for the Huskies. Washington tends to use a two tight end set at time, which should give Drew Sample and Darrell Daniels some looks.
Huskies Defense also Features Returnees
Not just the offense for the Washington Huskies has guys returning from a season ago. The defense has talent back, and big, strong, fast guys that should fare well against Pac-12 offenses. The Huskies will use Joe Mathis as their stud defensive end, and he will be joined by Elijah Qualls, Greg Gaines, Keishawn Bierria and Azeem Victor.
The Huskies are one of the top recruiting schools this past off-season, so be sure to realize youngsters are going to be seen on the field early and often!
Huskies 2016 Schedule
The Washington Huskies start the season with a trio of home games in which, let’s be honest – they should win, and win big. The Huskies host Rutgers, Idaho and then Portland State. Following that, Washington will start Pac-12 play with a road game at Arizona.
The final game in a five week September will be on a Friday night against Stanford. Three out of the next four games are on the road for Washington. The first is at Oregon, and the final two are at Utah and California. The lone home game during that time will be against the Oregon State Beavers.
The final trio of games for Washington are at home against USC, at home against Arizona State, and then on the road at the Washington State Cougars.
Betting on Washington
It’s not real often you talk about the Washington Huskies winning the national title, but maybe this is their opportunity. The Huskies have a tough schedule, but will need to have many things go the right way for this to happen.
Washington is listed at 45/1 at MyBookie to win the national title. The Washington Huskies are the largest win total in the Pac-12. The Huskies are listed at 9 wins, and you have the chance to bet the over or the under. Maybe, you want to bet on the Huskies to win the Pac-12; take a chance, and go for it.
The odds are just as good as any other team. Pretty much grab them at even money. The Washington Huskies have a cupcake game in Week 1 against Rutgers. You can grab the Huskies at -235 over at BetDSI.
2016 College Football Betting Preview: Michigan State Spartans
Back for another season as a contender in not only the Big Ten, but also in the national title picture is the Michigan State Spartans. The Spartans have developed into a perennial college football title contender. The Spartans will have some changes to their roster, but they should still have a ton of talent.
The schedule, as always will be a bit of a challenge for the Spartans, but when push comes to shove, they are still favorites to repeat as the East Division Champions out of the Big Ten. Let’s take a look at the 2016 College Football Betting Preview for the Michigan State Spartans.
New Faces on Offense for Michigan State
There are a bunch of new faces on the offensive side of the football for the Michigan State Spartans. The coaching staff has garnered some great talent, to compete in the Big Ten. Tyler O’Connor gets his start at quarterback, with Damion Terry to play behind.
T.J. Scott is the starting tailback with Gerald Holmes and Madre London to back him up. R.J. Shelton and Josiah Price will be the top receiving targets for the Spartans. There will be some growing pains for the Spartans offense, but look for them in the end to put points on the board more often than not.
Defense Strong Suit for Spartans
The defense for Michigan State is going to have to carry the load in 2016. If the Spartans are going to be national title contenders, guys like Demetrius Cooper and Craig Evans will have to step up large. Returning starters, such as Malik McDowell, Joe Reschke and Riley Bullough should be able to lead the charge.
Demetrious Cox is another name the Spartans will rely on, as he is one of the most talented backfield players in the Big Ten. Michigan State can only go as far as their defense in 2016.
Spartans Schedule for 2016
The Michigan State Spartans open up the 2016 season with a little bit of a cupcake. The Spartans remain in East Lansing for a date against Furman. Following that, the Spartans will head out on the road to South Bend to take on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.
That’s quite a rivalry game, and being on the road may prove quite the challenge. Following that, Michigan State starts Big Ten play with a home game against Wisconsin, and a road game at Indiana. The Spartans go back out of Big Ten play with a home game against Brigham Young. The final seven games of the season for Michigan State starts with a home game against Northwestern, followed by a trip to Maryland.
The rivalry game on October 29th against Michigan should be one of the best games of the week. Finally, when the Spartans wrap up the season, they are at Illinois, with Rutgers, with national title contender Ohio State, and then on the road at the Penn State Nittany Lions to wrap up the season.
Bet on Michigan State in 2016
When you are ready to make a few bets on the 2016 NCAA Football season, an interesting bet is on the Michigan State Spartans. The Spartans are 11th on the listing sheet to win the championship, with a 30/1 odds at Bookmaker. The Spartans will have to go through the Big Ten gauntlet, and then win the Big Ten title game, followed by two playoff games.
The Spartans are third in the odds to win the Big Ten as well. Ohio State and Michigan are national title contenders. The Spartans have decent odds, since they are in the opposite side as the big two powers. The Spartans are +225 (at MyBookie) to win the Big Ten title. Finally, the total win odds are out.
The Spartans come into the season with a betting line of 8 wins. The Spartans winning 8 games would be old hat for that program.
Back for another season as a contender in not only the Big Ten, but also in the national title picture is the Michigan State Spartans. The Spartans have developed into a perennial college football title contender. The Spartans will have some changes to their roster, but they should still have a ton of talent.
The schedule, as always will be a bit of a challenge for the Spartans, but when push comes to shove, they are still favorites to repeat as the East Division Champions out of the Big Ten. Let’s take a look at the 2016 College Football Betting Preview for the Michigan State Spartans.
New Faces on Offense for Michigan State
There are a bunch of new faces on the offensive side of the football for the Michigan State Spartans. The coaching staff has garnered some great talent, to compete in the Big Ten. Tyler O’Connor gets his start at quarterback, with Damion Terry to play behind.
T.J. Scott is the starting tailback with Gerald Holmes and Madre London to back him up. R.J. Shelton and Josiah Price will be the top receiving targets for the Spartans. There will be some growing pains for the Spartans offense, but look for them in the end to put points on the board more often than not.
Defense Strong Suit for Spartans
The defense for Michigan State is going to have to carry the load in 2016. If the Spartans are going to be national title contenders, guys like Demetrius Cooper and Craig Evans will have to step up large. Returning starters, such as Malik McDowell, Joe Reschke and Riley Bullough should be able to lead the charge.
Demetrious Cox is another name the Spartans will rely on, as he is one of the most talented backfield players in the Big Ten. Michigan State can only go as far as their defense in 2016.
Spartans Schedule for 2016
The Michigan State Spartans open up the 2016 season with a little bit of a cupcake. The Spartans remain in East Lansing for a date against Furman. Following that, the Spartans will head out on the road to South Bend to take on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.
That’s quite a rivalry game, and being on the road may prove quite the challenge. Following that, Michigan State starts Big Ten play with a home game against Wisconsin, and a road game at Indiana. The Spartans go back out of Big Ten play with a home game against Brigham Young. The final seven games of the season for Michigan State starts with a home game against Northwestern, followed by a trip to Maryland.
The rivalry game on October 29th against Michigan should be one of the best games of the week. Finally, when the Spartans wrap up the season, they are at Illinois, with Rutgers, with national title contender Ohio State, and then on the road at the Penn State Nittany Lions to wrap up the season.
Bet on Michigan State in 2016
When you are ready to make a few bets on the 2016 NCAA Football season, an interesting bet is on the Michigan State Spartans. The Spartans are 11th on the listing sheet to win the championship, with a 30/1 odds at Bookmaker. The Spartans will have to go through the Big Ten gauntlet, and then win the Big Ten title game, followed by two playoff games.
The Spartans are third in the odds to win the Big Ten as well. Ohio State and Michigan are national title contenders. The Spartans have decent odds, since they are in the opposite side as the big two powers. The Spartans are +225 (at MyBookie) to win the Big Ten title. Finally, the total win odds are out.
The Spartans come into the season with a betting line of 8 wins. The Spartans winning 8 games would be old hat for that program.
2016 College Football Betting Preview: UCLA Bruins
What a wild season the UCLA Bruins are going to go up against this season. They do not have a favorable schedule, but with their talent, they are going to have a chance to win every game all season long. The Bruins are in the Pac-12, which of course is going to be among the best in all of college football.
The folks out in Los Angeles, would love to see their beloved Bruins have a chance to win the entire thing. Let’s take a look at the 2016 College Football Betting Preview for the UCLA Bruins.
UCLA Offense in 2016
Josh Rosen is back for his sophomore season behind center for the UCLA Bruins. Rosen is ahead of head coach’s Rick Neuheisel’s son, Jerry at the quarterback position. Rosen has all the goods, and many are projecting him to be in for a sensational season.
His fullback is Nate Iese, while Soso Jamabo should get plenty of carries. The three receivers for the Bruins appear to be Kenneth Walker, Darren Andrews and Stephen Johnson. The big uglies up front for UCLA are talented, and will be up for the task in the Pac-12.
Defensively, Bruins have a Bunch Returning
The UCLA Bruins know that out of the Pac-12, they are going to have to defend the football. That’s why they are pleased to see many of their starters from a season ago return. Guys like Takkarist McKinley, Eli Anjou and Deon Hollins are poised to put together a solid season.
In the defensive back field Marcus Rios and Randall Goforth are the seniors, while John Johnson and Jaleel Wadood have great talent. The Bruins will match their defense up against the rest of the Pac-12 and take their chances.
Bruins 2016 Schedule
Things do not start out easy for the UCLA Bruins. They will start the season with a road game in College Station. The Bruins at Texas A+M is one of the most intriguing Week 1 games. Following that, the Bruins host UNLV. A trip to Brigham Young in Week 3 will prepare them for the Pac-12 season to start.
UCLA will start conference play with two straight home games; with Stanford and Arizona. The Bruins then go on the road at the Arizona State Sun Devils. Following that, UCLA is on the road at Washington State, before coming back home to Utah. The final four games of the season are at Colorado, with Oregon State, with USC and on the road at the California Golden Bears.
Betting on UCLA in 2016
When you are looking at the UCLA Bruins to win a national title, there are 15 teams ahead of them when it comes to odds. The UCLA Bruins are listed at 40/1 odds over at BetDSI, which is tied with programs such as Georgia, TCU and USC. When it comes to winning the Pac-12, as we said, they are tied with USC, but are behind just Stanford.
he Bruins would be a +125 bet (at BetDSI) to win the conference. The UCLA Bruins are listed at 8.5 wins for the 2016 season. If you look at that schedule, if they can get by the tough opener at Texas A&M, they should be in good shape to go over that win total.
What a wild season the UCLA Bruins are going to go up against this season. They do not have a favorable schedule, but with their talent, they are going to have a chance to win every game all season long. The Bruins are in the Pac-12, which of course is going to be among the best in all of college football.
The folks out in Los Angeles, would love to see their beloved Bruins have a chance to win the entire thing. Let’s take a look at the 2016 College Football Betting Preview for the UCLA Bruins.
UCLA Offense in 2016
Josh Rosen is back for his sophomore season behind center for the UCLA Bruins. Rosen is ahead of head coach’s Rick Neuheisel’s son, Jerry at the quarterback position. Rosen has all the goods, and many are projecting him to be in for a sensational season.
His fullback is Nate Iese, while Soso Jamabo should get plenty of carries. The three receivers for the Bruins appear to be Kenneth Walker, Darren Andrews and Stephen Johnson. The big uglies up front for UCLA are talented, and will be up for the task in the Pac-12.
Defensively, Bruins have a Bunch Returning
The UCLA Bruins know that out of the Pac-12, they are going to have to defend the football. That’s why they are pleased to see many of their starters from a season ago return. Guys like Takkarist McKinley, Eli Anjou and Deon Hollins are poised to put together a solid season.
In the defensive back field Marcus Rios and Randall Goforth are the seniors, while John Johnson and Jaleel Wadood have great talent. The Bruins will match their defense up against the rest of the Pac-12 and take their chances.
Bruins 2016 Schedule
Things do not start out easy for the UCLA Bruins. They will start the season with a road game in College Station. The Bruins at Texas A+M is one of the most intriguing Week 1 games. Following that, the Bruins host UNLV. A trip to Brigham Young in Week 3 will prepare them for the Pac-12 season to start.
UCLA will start conference play with two straight home games; with Stanford and Arizona. The Bruins then go on the road at the Arizona State Sun Devils. Following that, UCLA is on the road at Washington State, before coming back home to Utah. The final four games of the season are at Colorado, with Oregon State, with USC and on the road at the California Golden Bears.
Betting on UCLA in 2016
When you are looking at the UCLA Bruins to win a national title, there are 15 teams ahead of them when it comes to odds. The UCLA Bruins are listed at 40/1 odds over at BetDSI, which is tied with programs such as Georgia, TCU and USC. When it comes to winning the Pac-12, as we said, they are tied with USC, but are behind just Stanford.
he Bruins would be a +125 bet (at BetDSI) to win the conference. The UCLA Bruins are listed at 8.5 wins for the 2016 season. If you look at that schedule, if they can get by the tough opener at Texas A&M, they should be in good shape to go over that win total.
2016 Conference USA Preview
July 4, 2016
C-USA2016 Conference USA Football Betting Preview
We Won’t Back Down
Conference USA teams never shy away from playing challenging non-conference competition and this season is no exception.
The 2016 schedule has 13 playing weeks, which provides for one open date for each team. The last two seasons were 14-week schedules, providing two bye weeks per school.
A total of 22 games are scheduled against teams that played in a bowl game last season. Conference USA will face at least one opponent from all nine of the other FBS leagues.
Letter Winners Galore
Six teams return a minimum of 50 letter wins in 2016, led by North Texas (62), Southern Miss and Western Kentucky (55), Charlotte 54, Rice (52) and FIU (50).
Only FAU (32) returns less than 40 lettermen.
We’ll Be Back Soon
UAB will return to playing football in Conference USA for the 2017 season. A total of 67 players took part in the first on-field action for the team since the program was reinstated last summer.
Bill Clark, who served as head coach during the 2014 season and guided UAB to a four-win increase in his first season, will continue to build the program as it returns to play as an FBS member for 2017.
Bowling For Dollars
For the second consecutive season, C-USA sent five teams to bowl games in 2015. They finished 3-2 in bowls, giving the league an 18-8 SU and 16-9-1 ATS mark the past four seasons in postseason play. No other FBS conference owns a higher bowl win percentage than the C-USA the last five years.
Note: Numbers following team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, along with the number of returning linemen, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback.
2016 C-USA EAST PREVIEW
CHARLOTTE (Offense – *9/4, Defense – 9/3, 54 Lettermen)
TEAM THEME: YOUTHFUL EXPERIENCE
Last year the FBS’ newest spring chicken, the 49ers made their debut fast-tracking from a program that launched as an FCS Independent in 2013 and landed in Conference-USA in 2015. Head coach Brad Lambert and his 10-man staff boast over 140 years of collegiate coaching experience, with Lambert (27), assistant head coach Dean Hood (29), and coordinators Jeff Mullen (25) and Matt Wallerstedt (24), each with over 20 years of know-how. Coupled with a wealth of experience and returning starters (11 returners have started at least 20 games in their 49ers career, including 5 who have made 30 or more starts), it will be hard to hush Charlotte’s sweet talent level this year.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: 22 players who were part of the first 49ers team in 2013 make up the 2016 senior class.
PLAY ON: at UTSA (11/26)
FLORIDA ATLANTIC (Offense – 8/4, Defense – 7/3, 32 Lettermen)
TEAM THEME: WET DREAMS
Just when it appeared FAU was making progress, a pair of 3-win seasons under head coach Charlie Partridge was received like a wet blanket. Making matters worse, double-threat QB Jaquez Johnson, who tossed for 3,807 yards and rushed for 1,014 more over the last two years, is gone. Fortunately, Partridge hit the streets and welcomes in strong back-to-back recruiting classes. Included is SO QB Jason Driskell, brother of former Florida QB Jeff Driskell, who started two games while passing for nearly 1,000 yards last season. In addition, both of last year’s top RBs return. Coupled with a nation-leading 16 true freshmen that started a game last season, the young Owls (68 underclassmen) appear perched for success. The Owls are projected to have 32 freshmen (19 true) in 2016, 36 sophomores, 18 juniors and 17 seniors. Just two of the team’s incoming class hails from a state other than Florida.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Owls are 5-14 SU in one-possession games since Howard Schnellenberger resigned, including 1-4 last season.
PLAY ON: vs. Old Dominion (11/19) - *KEY
FLORIDA INTL (Offense – *9/5, Defense – 5/1, 50 Lettermen)
TEAM THEME: STANDING ON OUR OWN
Strangely, the Golden Panthers will most likely be indebted to Pete Garcia, the school A.D., for scheduling 7 consecutive losing opponents to open the season. They will also likely be thankful for the services of JR QB Alex McGough, JR RB Alex Gardner and SR TE Jonnu Smith who, upon their eventual graduations, will each own school records. Then again, it could all be for naught as the defense must replace 4 top all-CUSA performers, the same stop-unit that collapsed down the stretch last year and allowed 44.25 PPG during the final four games. In what’s been a series of baby steps under Ron Turner, the training wheels are set to disengage this year.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: After going 2-22 ‘In The Stats’ in Ron Turner’s first two seasons, the Panthers ‘improved’ to 4-8 ITS last year.
PLAY AGAINST: at Old Dominion (11/26)
MARSHALL (Offense - *7/4, Defense – 4/2, 48 Lettermen)
TEAM THEME: ON AND ON IT GOES
Behind a 5th straight bowl win, Marshall became the only Group of 5 program to record a 3rd straight 10-win season last year. In fact, the only schools with more consecutive double-digit win seasons are Alabama (8), Clemson (5), and Ohio State and Florida State (4 each). And in 2015, a total of 30 defenses in the FBS faced 965 or more plays. Of those, the only team that allowed fewer yards per game than Marshall’s 360.0 was once beaten and College Football Playoff runner-up Clemson (313.0). SO QB Chase Litton, 9-2 starting the final 11 games of the season while leading all true freshmen with 23 TD passes, returns for more.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Thundering Herd are 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS as home favorites with conference revenge.
PLAY ON: vs. Western Kentucky (11/26)
MIDDLE TENNESSEE (Offense – *6/3, Defense – 5/3, 40 Lettermen)
TEAM THEME: ALL IN THE FAMILY
One of only 4 teams to complete the season with a 4,000-yard passer and two 1,000-yard receivers (joining Bowling Green, Tulsa and Washington State), the Blue Raiders are opting for more in 2016. MTSU brought OC Tony Franklin (former Auburn, California and Murray State offensive coordinator) in to work with CUSA Freshman of the Year QB Brent Stockstill (coach Rick’s son), who led the nation’s freshmen quarterbacks in yards and TD passes, and added weight and strength in the offseason. The defense, though, loses 4 all-CUSA performers, including all 3 starting linebackers. Expect the Raiders to rely heavily on HC Stockstill’s 20 years of bowl game experience to get them back to the postseason this year.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Blue Raiders ranked 4th nationally in red zone defense.
PLAY ON: at Vanderbilt (9/10)
OLD DOMINION (Offense – *9/3, Defense – 8/3, 42 Lettermen)
TEAM THEME: FAILURE IS NOT AN OPTION
After force-feeding freshmen who made a whopping 64 starts last season, Old Dominion suffered its first-ever losing season under head coach Bobby Wilder. Rest assured, they didn’t like the taste and will be hell-bent to return to their winning ways in 2016. The team is loaded with returning starters and promising youngsters. RB Ray Lawry followed up his C-USA Freshman of the Year season with another solid effort in 2015, leading the league with 1,136 yards and rushing for 11 touchdowns. Meanwhile, SO QB Shuler Bentley and SR QB/WR David Washington are back, combining for 2,587 yards and 20 TDs last season, with each taking significant snaps. ODU’s top 5 leading receivers also return for the 2016 season, along with SR LB TJ Ricks, the conference’s leading tackler.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Monarchs have sold out all 48 home games in school history and own a 35-13 SU record in those games.
PLAY ON: at Appalachian State (9/10)
WESTERN KENTUCKY (Offense – 7/5, Defense – 4/1, 55 Lettermen)
TEAM THEME: BROHM SQUAD
The hire of Jeff Brohm at WKU has proved to be electrifying. Since coming aboard in 2014, only 2 teams in the nation have finished in the Top 10 in Total Offense, Scoring Offense and Passing Offense: WKU and TCU. Having to replace legendary QB Brandon Doughty in 2016 means the Hilltoppers must now scale a mountain, but they do return all 5 starting offensive linemen (with 125 games of starting experience), as well as a 1,500-yard receiver, a 900-yard receiver, a 1,000-yard rusher, and a freshman running back who was 3rd nationally among freshman with 11 rushing touchdowns last season. Look for SR QB Nelson Fishback to plug into Brohm’s system like a light bulb into a socket.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The 2015 Hilltoppers were the 2nd most dominant league champion in C-USA history, winning league games by an average margin of 27.1 points.
PLAY AGAINST: as a favorite at Louisiana Tech (10/6)
2016 C-USA WEST PREVIEW
LOUISIANA TECH (Offense – 6/4, Defense – 3/2, 44 Lettermen)
TEAM THEME: SKIP FORWARD
After stumbling in his first year with Louisiana Tech, a pair of 9-win seasons has followed for Skip Holtz since, including back-to-back bowl wins for the first time in school history. The task could be more daunting in 2016, however, as the Bulldogs’ stop-unit takes a big hit, replacing 8 starters on the defensive side of the ball, with 2 assistant coaches gone as well. In addition, La Tech seniors made 166 combined starts last season, the 4th most in the nation. That’s a lot of lost experience. As a result, it appears Skippy will once again have to rely on his famous ‘dog-log’ (see below) in order to help keep this team on a forward path.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Head coach Skip Holtz is 39-19-1 ATS as a dog, including 15-4 ATS during the first 3 games of the season.
PLAY ON: as a dog at Southern Miss (11/25)
NORTH TEXAS (Offense - 5/3, Defense – 8/2, 62 Lettermen)
TEAM THEME: YOUNG GUNS
Thirty-seven-year old new head coach Seth Littrell, considered one of the brightest offensive minds in college football, comes from North Carolina where he served as assistant head coach of the offense. He inherits a squad that led Conference-USA, and ranked 3rd in the nation, in fumbles recovered last season with 14 (12 different players had at least one recovery). This from a team that featured 36 no-scholarship walk-on players who dotted 37% of the roster! The bad news is UNT ranked dead last in 3rd down defensive conversion efficiency last year (.524). That, coupled with our ‘Stat You Will Like’ below tells you where Littrell’s focus should – but won’t – go this year.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Lean Green have gone 0-13 SU and 2-11 ATS away the last 2 years, outyarded by 163 YPG.
PLAY AGAINST: at UTSA (10/29) - *Key if favored
RICE (Offense – 7/3, Defense – 9/3, 52 Lettermen)
TEAM THEME: MAKE IT OR BREAK IT
After making three straight bowl appearances for the first time in school history, the Owls fell asleep on the job last year. Contributing to the falloff was a secondary that was worst in the nation in pass efficiency, directly attributed to a lack of interceptions, as Rice managed to pick off only 2 passes the entire season. Consequently, the Owls tied Wyoming with the fewest turnovers gained (10) for the year. In addition, major recruiting services report David Bailiff’s feathered fowls have incurred the 2nd largest recruiting decline over the past 5 seasons. Thus, a winning effort behind 16 returning starters this season is crucial in order to reestablish the program’s recent record-setting gains.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Owls’ 30 wins over the last 4 years matches the most in school history. The 5-year record is 36 from 1946-50.
PLAY ON: vs. UTSA (10/15)
SOUTHERN MISS (Offense – *7/3, Defense – 6/2, 55 Lettermen)
TEAM THEME: BACK FROM THE ABYSS
New HC Jay Hopson, a 24-year collegiate coaching veteran (head coach at Alcorn State the past 4 seasons), and twice a former member of the Southern Miss coaching staff, returns to Hattiesburg. Hopson’s defensive units with the Golden Eagles led Conference-USA in scoring defense each of his 3 seasons as defensive coordinator. That’s good news for a team that witnessed 22 players making their Division-1 debut two years ago, then improved mightily last year while putting a 4-32 run the previous three years to bed in dramatic fashion – after compiling 18 winning seasons in a row prior to their mysterious fall. To paraphrase Arnold as The Terminator, “They’re Back!” – and Hopson figures to reap the rewards.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Golden Eagles will face only 3 opponents that owned a winning record last season.
PLAY ON: vs. Marshall (10/29)
UTEP (Offense – *8/4, Defense – 6/3, 47 Lettermen)
TEAM THEME: CH-CH-CH-CHANGES
Okay, so 3 of UTEP’s 5 wins last year – and 4 of the last 6 – have been by the grace of a field goal. And sure, they faced the 2nd softest schedule in the nation last season and will square off against the softest in 2016 (only 2 foes sport winning records from last year, including none of the last 7). Yet it’s no accident that the Miners have improved leaps and bounds over the last two football seasons, tallying 12 wins and a bowl game after recording just 2 wins in 2013. Not satisfied, Miners head coach Sean Kugler keeps digging, making several staffing changes this season with the hiring of 5 new assistants, including offensive and defensive coordinators.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Miners are 8-48-1 SU and 13-40-2 ATS in the last 57 games in which they have been outgained in the stats.
PLAY ON: at Louisiana Tech (10/1)
UTSA (Offense – *7/3, Defense – 5/2, 42 Lettermen)
TEAM THEME: OUT WITH THE OLD
In a move largely designed to infuse fresh blood into a young program, the Roadrunners named Frank Wilson as their new head coach, replacing former 2-time National Coach of the Year Larry Coker. Wilson brings 20 years of collegiate coaching experience to San Antonio (the last 6 as LSU’s assistant head coach and recruiting coordinator). He helped lead 8 teams to bowl games and is widely considered as one of the nation’s top college football recruiters, engineering signing classes that ranked among the nation’s Top 10 five times. UTSA faced gaping holes last season when it lost 38 seniors, thus resulting in a dismal 3-win effort. A new blueprint begins this year.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Roadrunners are 5-0 ATS in non-conference games off a non-conference win.
PLAY ON: at Colorado State (9/10) - *if off a win
July 4, 2016
C-USA2016 Conference USA Football Betting Preview
We Won’t Back Down
Conference USA teams never shy away from playing challenging non-conference competition and this season is no exception.
The 2016 schedule has 13 playing weeks, which provides for one open date for each team. The last two seasons were 14-week schedules, providing two bye weeks per school.
A total of 22 games are scheduled against teams that played in a bowl game last season. Conference USA will face at least one opponent from all nine of the other FBS leagues.
Letter Winners Galore
Six teams return a minimum of 50 letter wins in 2016, led by North Texas (62), Southern Miss and Western Kentucky (55), Charlotte 54, Rice (52) and FIU (50).
Only FAU (32) returns less than 40 lettermen.
We’ll Be Back Soon
UAB will return to playing football in Conference USA for the 2017 season. A total of 67 players took part in the first on-field action for the team since the program was reinstated last summer.
Bill Clark, who served as head coach during the 2014 season and guided UAB to a four-win increase in his first season, will continue to build the program as it returns to play as an FBS member for 2017.
Bowling For Dollars
For the second consecutive season, C-USA sent five teams to bowl games in 2015. They finished 3-2 in bowls, giving the league an 18-8 SU and 16-9-1 ATS mark the past four seasons in postseason play. No other FBS conference owns a higher bowl win percentage than the C-USA the last five years.
Note: Numbers following team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, along with the number of returning linemen, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback.
2016 C-USA EAST PREVIEW
CHARLOTTE (Offense – *9/4, Defense – 9/3, 54 Lettermen)
TEAM THEME: YOUTHFUL EXPERIENCE
Last year the FBS’ newest spring chicken, the 49ers made their debut fast-tracking from a program that launched as an FCS Independent in 2013 and landed in Conference-USA in 2015. Head coach Brad Lambert and his 10-man staff boast over 140 years of collegiate coaching experience, with Lambert (27), assistant head coach Dean Hood (29), and coordinators Jeff Mullen (25) and Matt Wallerstedt (24), each with over 20 years of know-how. Coupled with a wealth of experience and returning starters (11 returners have started at least 20 games in their 49ers career, including 5 who have made 30 or more starts), it will be hard to hush Charlotte’s sweet talent level this year.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: 22 players who were part of the first 49ers team in 2013 make up the 2016 senior class.
PLAY ON: at UTSA (11/26)
FLORIDA ATLANTIC (Offense – 8/4, Defense – 7/3, 32 Lettermen)
TEAM THEME: WET DREAMS
Just when it appeared FAU was making progress, a pair of 3-win seasons under head coach Charlie Partridge was received like a wet blanket. Making matters worse, double-threat QB Jaquez Johnson, who tossed for 3,807 yards and rushed for 1,014 more over the last two years, is gone. Fortunately, Partridge hit the streets and welcomes in strong back-to-back recruiting classes. Included is SO QB Jason Driskell, brother of former Florida QB Jeff Driskell, who started two games while passing for nearly 1,000 yards last season. In addition, both of last year’s top RBs return. Coupled with a nation-leading 16 true freshmen that started a game last season, the young Owls (68 underclassmen) appear perched for success. The Owls are projected to have 32 freshmen (19 true) in 2016, 36 sophomores, 18 juniors and 17 seniors. Just two of the team’s incoming class hails from a state other than Florida.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Owls are 5-14 SU in one-possession games since Howard Schnellenberger resigned, including 1-4 last season.
PLAY ON: vs. Old Dominion (11/19) - *KEY
FLORIDA INTL (Offense – *9/5, Defense – 5/1, 50 Lettermen)
TEAM THEME: STANDING ON OUR OWN
Strangely, the Golden Panthers will most likely be indebted to Pete Garcia, the school A.D., for scheduling 7 consecutive losing opponents to open the season. They will also likely be thankful for the services of JR QB Alex McGough, JR RB Alex Gardner and SR TE Jonnu Smith who, upon their eventual graduations, will each own school records. Then again, it could all be for naught as the defense must replace 4 top all-CUSA performers, the same stop-unit that collapsed down the stretch last year and allowed 44.25 PPG during the final four games. In what’s been a series of baby steps under Ron Turner, the training wheels are set to disengage this year.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: After going 2-22 ‘In The Stats’ in Ron Turner’s first two seasons, the Panthers ‘improved’ to 4-8 ITS last year.
PLAY AGAINST: at Old Dominion (11/26)
MARSHALL (Offense - *7/4, Defense – 4/2, 48 Lettermen)
TEAM THEME: ON AND ON IT GOES
Behind a 5th straight bowl win, Marshall became the only Group of 5 program to record a 3rd straight 10-win season last year. In fact, the only schools with more consecutive double-digit win seasons are Alabama (8), Clemson (5), and Ohio State and Florida State (4 each). And in 2015, a total of 30 defenses in the FBS faced 965 or more plays. Of those, the only team that allowed fewer yards per game than Marshall’s 360.0 was once beaten and College Football Playoff runner-up Clemson (313.0). SO QB Chase Litton, 9-2 starting the final 11 games of the season while leading all true freshmen with 23 TD passes, returns for more.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Thundering Herd are 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS as home favorites with conference revenge.
PLAY ON: vs. Western Kentucky (11/26)
MIDDLE TENNESSEE (Offense – *6/3, Defense – 5/3, 40 Lettermen)
TEAM THEME: ALL IN THE FAMILY
One of only 4 teams to complete the season with a 4,000-yard passer and two 1,000-yard receivers (joining Bowling Green, Tulsa and Washington State), the Blue Raiders are opting for more in 2016. MTSU brought OC Tony Franklin (former Auburn, California and Murray State offensive coordinator) in to work with CUSA Freshman of the Year QB Brent Stockstill (coach Rick’s son), who led the nation’s freshmen quarterbacks in yards and TD passes, and added weight and strength in the offseason. The defense, though, loses 4 all-CUSA performers, including all 3 starting linebackers. Expect the Raiders to rely heavily on HC Stockstill’s 20 years of bowl game experience to get them back to the postseason this year.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Blue Raiders ranked 4th nationally in red zone defense.
PLAY ON: at Vanderbilt (9/10)
OLD DOMINION (Offense – *9/3, Defense – 8/3, 42 Lettermen)
TEAM THEME: FAILURE IS NOT AN OPTION
After force-feeding freshmen who made a whopping 64 starts last season, Old Dominion suffered its first-ever losing season under head coach Bobby Wilder. Rest assured, they didn’t like the taste and will be hell-bent to return to their winning ways in 2016. The team is loaded with returning starters and promising youngsters. RB Ray Lawry followed up his C-USA Freshman of the Year season with another solid effort in 2015, leading the league with 1,136 yards and rushing for 11 touchdowns. Meanwhile, SO QB Shuler Bentley and SR QB/WR David Washington are back, combining for 2,587 yards and 20 TDs last season, with each taking significant snaps. ODU’s top 5 leading receivers also return for the 2016 season, along with SR LB TJ Ricks, the conference’s leading tackler.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Monarchs have sold out all 48 home games in school history and own a 35-13 SU record in those games.
PLAY ON: at Appalachian State (9/10)
WESTERN KENTUCKY (Offense – 7/5, Defense – 4/1, 55 Lettermen)
TEAM THEME: BROHM SQUAD
The hire of Jeff Brohm at WKU has proved to be electrifying. Since coming aboard in 2014, only 2 teams in the nation have finished in the Top 10 in Total Offense, Scoring Offense and Passing Offense: WKU and TCU. Having to replace legendary QB Brandon Doughty in 2016 means the Hilltoppers must now scale a mountain, but they do return all 5 starting offensive linemen (with 125 games of starting experience), as well as a 1,500-yard receiver, a 900-yard receiver, a 1,000-yard rusher, and a freshman running back who was 3rd nationally among freshman with 11 rushing touchdowns last season. Look for SR QB Nelson Fishback to plug into Brohm’s system like a light bulb into a socket.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The 2015 Hilltoppers were the 2nd most dominant league champion in C-USA history, winning league games by an average margin of 27.1 points.
PLAY AGAINST: as a favorite at Louisiana Tech (10/6)
2016 C-USA WEST PREVIEW
LOUISIANA TECH (Offense – 6/4, Defense – 3/2, 44 Lettermen)
TEAM THEME: SKIP FORWARD
After stumbling in his first year with Louisiana Tech, a pair of 9-win seasons has followed for Skip Holtz since, including back-to-back bowl wins for the first time in school history. The task could be more daunting in 2016, however, as the Bulldogs’ stop-unit takes a big hit, replacing 8 starters on the defensive side of the ball, with 2 assistant coaches gone as well. In addition, La Tech seniors made 166 combined starts last season, the 4th most in the nation. That’s a lot of lost experience. As a result, it appears Skippy will once again have to rely on his famous ‘dog-log’ (see below) in order to help keep this team on a forward path.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Head coach Skip Holtz is 39-19-1 ATS as a dog, including 15-4 ATS during the first 3 games of the season.
PLAY ON: as a dog at Southern Miss (11/25)
NORTH TEXAS (Offense - 5/3, Defense – 8/2, 62 Lettermen)
TEAM THEME: YOUNG GUNS
Thirty-seven-year old new head coach Seth Littrell, considered one of the brightest offensive minds in college football, comes from North Carolina where he served as assistant head coach of the offense. He inherits a squad that led Conference-USA, and ranked 3rd in the nation, in fumbles recovered last season with 14 (12 different players had at least one recovery). This from a team that featured 36 no-scholarship walk-on players who dotted 37% of the roster! The bad news is UNT ranked dead last in 3rd down defensive conversion efficiency last year (.524). That, coupled with our ‘Stat You Will Like’ below tells you where Littrell’s focus should – but won’t – go this year.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Lean Green have gone 0-13 SU and 2-11 ATS away the last 2 years, outyarded by 163 YPG.
PLAY AGAINST: at UTSA (10/29) - *Key if favored
RICE (Offense – 7/3, Defense – 9/3, 52 Lettermen)
TEAM THEME: MAKE IT OR BREAK IT
After making three straight bowl appearances for the first time in school history, the Owls fell asleep on the job last year. Contributing to the falloff was a secondary that was worst in the nation in pass efficiency, directly attributed to a lack of interceptions, as Rice managed to pick off only 2 passes the entire season. Consequently, the Owls tied Wyoming with the fewest turnovers gained (10) for the year. In addition, major recruiting services report David Bailiff’s feathered fowls have incurred the 2nd largest recruiting decline over the past 5 seasons. Thus, a winning effort behind 16 returning starters this season is crucial in order to reestablish the program’s recent record-setting gains.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Owls’ 30 wins over the last 4 years matches the most in school history. The 5-year record is 36 from 1946-50.
PLAY ON: vs. UTSA (10/15)
SOUTHERN MISS (Offense – *7/3, Defense – 6/2, 55 Lettermen)
TEAM THEME: BACK FROM THE ABYSS
New HC Jay Hopson, a 24-year collegiate coaching veteran (head coach at Alcorn State the past 4 seasons), and twice a former member of the Southern Miss coaching staff, returns to Hattiesburg. Hopson’s defensive units with the Golden Eagles led Conference-USA in scoring defense each of his 3 seasons as defensive coordinator. That’s good news for a team that witnessed 22 players making their Division-1 debut two years ago, then improved mightily last year while putting a 4-32 run the previous three years to bed in dramatic fashion – after compiling 18 winning seasons in a row prior to their mysterious fall. To paraphrase Arnold as The Terminator, “They’re Back!” – and Hopson figures to reap the rewards.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Golden Eagles will face only 3 opponents that owned a winning record last season.
PLAY ON: vs. Marshall (10/29)
UTEP (Offense – *8/4, Defense – 6/3, 47 Lettermen)
TEAM THEME: CH-CH-CH-CHANGES
Okay, so 3 of UTEP’s 5 wins last year – and 4 of the last 6 – have been by the grace of a field goal. And sure, they faced the 2nd softest schedule in the nation last season and will square off against the softest in 2016 (only 2 foes sport winning records from last year, including none of the last 7). Yet it’s no accident that the Miners have improved leaps and bounds over the last two football seasons, tallying 12 wins and a bowl game after recording just 2 wins in 2013. Not satisfied, Miners head coach Sean Kugler keeps digging, making several staffing changes this season with the hiring of 5 new assistants, including offensive and defensive coordinators.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Miners are 8-48-1 SU and 13-40-2 ATS in the last 57 games in which they have been outgained in the stats.
PLAY ON: at Louisiana Tech (10/1)
UTSA (Offense – *7/3, Defense – 5/2, 42 Lettermen)
TEAM THEME: OUT WITH THE OLD
In a move largely designed to infuse fresh blood into a young program, the Roadrunners named Frank Wilson as their new head coach, replacing former 2-time National Coach of the Year Larry Coker. Wilson brings 20 years of collegiate coaching experience to San Antonio (the last 6 as LSU’s assistant head coach and recruiting coordinator). He helped lead 8 teams to bowl games and is widely considered as one of the nation’s top college football recruiters, engineering signing classes that ranked among the nation’s Top 10 five times. UTSA faced gaping holes last season when it lost 38 seniors, thus resulting in a dismal 3-win effort. A new blueprint begins this year.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Roadrunners are 5-0 ATS in non-conference games off a non-conference win.
PLAY ON: at Colorado State (9/10) - *if off a win
Tuesday's Top Action
July 5, 2016
PITTSBURGH PIRATES (42-41) at ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (43-39)
First pitch: Tuesday, 8:05 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Pittsburgh +143, St. Louis -158, Total: 8.5
The Pirates will be looking to win their sixth straight game when they face the Cardinals in St. Louis on Tuesday.
Pittsburgh looked to be down for the count just a few weeks ago, but the team has now rattled off five straight victories and has also come away with eight wins in its past 10 games. The Pirates are pitching extremely well over that stretch, allowing three or less earned runs in five straight games. They’ll be hoping to keep that up moving forward, as their rotation had been their issue earlier in the year.
The Cardinals have been playing well also, losing the first game of this series but winning three straight before suffering that defeat. This team has underperformed a little all season long, but will be hoping to come away with a series win over this Pittsburgh team. Both clubs are likely competing for a wild card spot, as the Cubs have really separated in the division.
Taking the mound in this game will be LHP Steven Brault (0-0, 0.00 ERA, 0 K) for the Pirates and RHP Mike Leake (5-6, 4.13 ERA, 63 K) for the Cardinals. One trend worth pointing out is the fact that Pittsburgh is 26-10 against the money line in road games with a hot bullpen whose ERA is 2.00 or better in the past 10 games over the past two seasons. St. Louis is, however, an impressive 20-6 against the money line off a loss to a division rival as a favorite over the past two seasons.
Steven Brault will be making his season debut for the Pirates on Tuesday and the lefty certainly deserves his shot in the big leagues. In eight AAA starts this season, Brault has a 2.57 ERA and 44 K in 35.0 innings of work. He doesn’t necessarily work deep into games, but the Pirates would be more than happy with five or six innings of solid pitching on Tuesday.
It’s worth noting that Brault is not much of a power pitcher, and does most of his best work while pitching to contact. He’ll just need to make sure that he can induce grounders, as the Cardinals will take advantage of him if the ball is hanging too high in the zone on Tuesday.
Offensively, 3B David Freese (.292, 8 HR, 35 RBI), OF Andrew McCutchen (.236, 12 HR, 32 RBI) and OF Starling Marte (.321, 6 HR, 31 RBI) are the guys to keep an eye on in this one. All three guys have had a ton of success against Leake in their careers, combining to go 39-for-134 with four homers and 13 RBI against the Cardinals’ starter. They’ll be hoping to keep that up against him on Tuesday.
Mike Leake has been inconsistent for the Cardinals this season, but he will be hoping to build off of a very good outing against the Royals in this one. He faced Kansas City on Jun. 30 and allowed just two earned runs in seven innings of work. He struck out just four batters in the game, but he also walked just one. It’s important that he is under control on Tuesday, as it would be a disaster if he gives the Pirates too many free baserunners.
Offensively, it’d be big if OF Stephen Piscotty (.294, 10 HR, 44 RBI) could get it going for St. Louis on Tuesday. He’s been seeing the ball very well lately, getting a hit in five straight games and homering twice in the past five as well. Piscotty is St. Louis’ best weapon at the plate and the team could really use some production out of him against an inexperience pitcher like Brault.
It’s also worth keeping an eye on 3B Matt Carpenter (.305, 14 HR, 53 RBI), who has seen his average rise from .296 to .305 over the past 10 games. Carpenter has four multi-hit games in the past eight contests and it would be huge if he could get on base frequently in this one as well.
BALTIMORE ORIOLES (47-35) at LOS ANGELES DODGERS (48-37)
First pitch: Tuesday, 10:10 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Baltimore +135, Los Angeles -150, Total: 7.5
The Orioles will be looking to avoid losing their sixth straight game when they take on a Dodgers team that has won five straight heading into Tuesday night’s matchup.
Baltimore has been one of the most surprising teams in baseball this season, but the club has really struggled away from home on the year. The Orioles are just 16-22 on the road and they will really need to improve that number moving forward. They can’t afford to keep up their recent level of play, as they have now lost five straight games and have allowed the Red Sox and Blue Jays to make up ground in the AL East.
The Dodgers, meanwhile, are as hot as could be right now. Los Angeles has won five straight games and seven of its past eight as well. This team also benefits from being excellent at home, going 27-15 at Dodger Stadium.
The starters in this game are going to be RHP Chris Tillman (10-2, 3.71 ERA, 91 K) for the Orioles and RHP Kenta Maeda (7-5, 2.82 ERA, 89 K) for the Dodgers. Both pitchers have been great this season, so this should be a very fun one to watch.
It is worth mentioning that the Orioles are a remarkable 9-1 against the money line in road games after three straight games where the bullpen gave up three or more runs since 1997.
Chris Tillman has not pitched well in his past two starts, allowing 10 earned runs in just 9.2 innings of work. The Orioles are going to need him to be a lot better this time out, as the Dodgers are really playing some superb baseball at the moment. Tillman’s main issue this season has been a lack of control. He has walked five batters over the past two games and that has really come back to haunt him. It also has allowed his opponents to hit more bombs off of Tillman, as he’ll throw pitches right over the plate when he grows afraid of walking a batter. If Tillman doesn’t turn in something close to a quality start then the Orioles will be in trouble on Tuesday.
Offensively, almost everybody in this lineup is a threat to do damage at the plate. SS Manny Machado (.325, 18 HR, 50 RBI), OF Mark Trumbo (.280, 24 HR, 62 RBI) and 2B Jonathan Schoop (.301, 13 HR, 47 RBI) are, however, the guys to watch in this one.
Machado has six multi-hit games over the past 10 contests and is capable of reaching base two or three times on any given night. Schoop and Trumbo, meanwhile, are two guys with some serious pop. Trumbo has two homers over the past six games for Baltimore and Schoop, like Machado, has six multi-hit games in the past 10 contests. The Orioles will be hoping that these two can drive in some runs on Tuesday.
Kenta Maeda will be starting for the Dodgers on Tuesday and he’ll be hoping to build off of his impressive June. Maeda had a 2.52 ERA in June and a lot of that had to do with his impressive 38-to-11 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He’ll be hoping to continue to miss bats moving forward, as that was not something he did with much frequency earlier in the year.
It’s also worth noting that Maeda has allowed just one earned run in each of his past three starts at home this season. He also has kept his opponents homerless in seven of his past 10 starts and that would be huge if he could do it against this powerful Baltimore team in this game.
Offensively, the Dodgers will be hoping that SS Corey Seager (.305, 17 HR, 41 RBI) can stay hot in this one. Seager is on a 17-game hitting streak for Los Angeles and has now recorded two hits in four of his past five games.
It’d also be big for the Dodgers if 2B Justin Turner (.259, 11 HR, 41 RBI) could do some damage at the plate. He has recorded four multi-hit games in the past 10 contests and also has nine RBI in that span. Turner struggled early in the year, but he has come on strong lately.
July 5, 2016
PITTSBURGH PIRATES (42-41) at ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (43-39)
First pitch: Tuesday, 8:05 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Pittsburgh +143, St. Louis -158, Total: 8.5
The Pirates will be looking to win their sixth straight game when they face the Cardinals in St. Louis on Tuesday.
Pittsburgh looked to be down for the count just a few weeks ago, but the team has now rattled off five straight victories and has also come away with eight wins in its past 10 games. The Pirates are pitching extremely well over that stretch, allowing three or less earned runs in five straight games. They’ll be hoping to keep that up moving forward, as their rotation had been their issue earlier in the year.
The Cardinals have been playing well also, losing the first game of this series but winning three straight before suffering that defeat. This team has underperformed a little all season long, but will be hoping to come away with a series win over this Pittsburgh team. Both clubs are likely competing for a wild card spot, as the Cubs have really separated in the division.
Taking the mound in this game will be LHP Steven Brault (0-0, 0.00 ERA, 0 K) for the Pirates and RHP Mike Leake (5-6, 4.13 ERA, 63 K) for the Cardinals. One trend worth pointing out is the fact that Pittsburgh is 26-10 against the money line in road games with a hot bullpen whose ERA is 2.00 or better in the past 10 games over the past two seasons. St. Louis is, however, an impressive 20-6 against the money line off a loss to a division rival as a favorite over the past two seasons.
Steven Brault will be making his season debut for the Pirates on Tuesday and the lefty certainly deserves his shot in the big leagues. In eight AAA starts this season, Brault has a 2.57 ERA and 44 K in 35.0 innings of work. He doesn’t necessarily work deep into games, but the Pirates would be more than happy with five or six innings of solid pitching on Tuesday.
It’s worth noting that Brault is not much of a power pitcher, and does most of his best work while pitching to contact. He’ll just need to make sure that he can induce grounders, as the Cardinals will take advantage of him if the ball is hanging too high in the zone on Tuesday.
Offensively, 3B David Freese (.292, 8 HR, 35 RBI), OF Andrew McCutchen (.236, 12 HR, 32 RBI) and OF Starling Marte (.321, 6 HR, 31 RBI) are the guys to keep an eye on in this one. All three guys have had a ton of success against Leake in their careers, combining to go 39-for-134 with four homers and 13 RBI against the Cardinals’ starter. They’ll be hoping to keep that up against him on Tuesday.
Mike Leake has been inconsistent for the Cardinals this season, but he will be hoping to build off of a very good outing against the Royals in this one. He faced Kansas City on Jun. 30 and allowed just two earned runs in seven innings of work. He struck out just four batters in the game, but he also walked just one. It’s important that he is under control on Tuesday, as it would be a disaster if he gives the Pirates too many free baserunners.
Offensively, it’d be big if OF Stephen Piscotty (.294, 10 HR, 44 RBI) could get it going for St. Louis on Tuesday. He’s been seeing the ball very well lately, getting a hit in five straight games and homering twice in the past five as well. Piscotty is St. Louis’ best weapon at the plate and the team could really use some production out of him against an inexperience pitcher like Brault.
It’s also worth keeping an eye on 3B Matt Carpenter (.305, 14 HR, 53 RBI), who has seen his average rise from .296 to .305 over the past 10 games. Carpenter has four multi-hit games in the past eight contests and it would be huge if he could get on base frequently in this one as well.
BALTIMORE ORIOLES (47-35) at LOS ANGELES DODGERS (48-37)
First pitch: Tuesday, 10:10 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Baltimore +135, Los Angeles -150, Total: 7.5
The Orioles will be looking to avoid losing their sixth straight game when they take on a Dodgers team that has won five straight heading into Tuesday night’s matchup.
Baltimore has been one of the most surprising teams in baseball this season, but the club has really struggled away from home on the year. The Orioles are just 16-22 on the road and they will really need to improve that number moving forward. They can’t afford to keep up their recent level of play, as they have now lost five straight games and have allowed the Red Sox and Blue Jays to make up ground in the AL East.
The Dodgers, meanwhile, are as hot as could be right now. Los Angeles has won five straight games and seven of its past eight as well. This team also benefits from being excellent at home, going 27-15 at Dodger Stadium.
The starters in this game are going to be RHP Chris Tillman (10-2, 3.71 ERA, 91 K) for the Orioles and RHP Kenta Maeda (7-5, 2.82 ERA, 89 K) for the Dodgers. Both pitchers have been great this season, so this should be a very fun one to watch.
It is worth mentioning that the Orioles are a remarkable 9-1 against the money line in road games after three straight games where the bullpen gave up three or more runs since 1997.
Chris Tillman has not pitched well in his past two starts, allowing 10 earned runs in just 9.2 innings of work. The Orioles are going to need him to be a lot better this time out, as the Dodgers are really playing some superb baseball at the moment. Tillman’s main issue this season has been a lack of control. He has walked five batters over the past two games and that has really come back to haunt him. It also has allowed his opponents to hit more bombs off of Tillman, as he’ll throw pitches right over the plate when he grows afraid of walking a batter. If Tillman doesn’t turn in something close to a quality start then the Orioles will be in trouble on Tuesday.
Offensively, almost everybody in this lineup is a threat to do damage at the plate. SS Manny Machado (.325, 18 HR, 50 RBI), OF Mark Trumbo (.280, 24 HR, 62 RBI) and 2B Jonathan Schoop (.301, 13 HR, 47 RBI) are, however, the guys to watch in this one.
Machado has six multi-hit games over the past 10 contests and is capable of reaching base two or three times on any given night. Schoop and Trumbo, meanwhile, are two guys with some serious pop. Trumbo has two homers over the past six games for Baltimore and Schoop, like Machado, has six multi-hit games in the past 10 contests. The Orioles will be hoping that these two can drive in some runs on Tuesday.
Kenta Maeda will be starting for the Dodgers on Tuesday and he’ll be hoping to build off of his impressive June. Maeda had a 2.52 ERA in June and a lot of that had to do with his impressive 38-to-11 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He’ll be hoping to continue to miss bats moving forward, as that was not something he did with much frequency earlier in the year.
It’s also worth noting that Maeda has allowed just one earned run in each of his past three starts at home this season. He also has kept his opponents homerless in seven of his past 10 starts and that would be huge if he could do it against this powerful Baltimore team in this game.
Offensively, the Dodgers will be hoping that SS Corey Seager (.305, 17 HR, 41 RBI) can stay hot in this one. Seager is on a 17-game hitting streak for Los Angeles and has now recorded two hits in four of his past five games.
It’d also be big for the Dodgers if 2B Justin Turner (.259, 11 HR, 41 RBI) could do some damage at the plate. He has recorded four multi-hit games in the past 10 contests and also has nine RBI in that span. Turner struggled early in the year, but he has come on strong lately.
MLB
Short Sheet
Tuesday, July 5
Cincinnati at Chicago Cubs, 2:20 PM ET
Cincinnati: 7-31 SU as an underdog of +150 or more
Chicago: 32-16 SU in home games after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6
Atlanta at Philadelphia, 7:05 PM ET
Atlanta: 2-15 SU off a loss by 6 runs or more to a division rival
Philadelphia: 11-4 SU after having won 4 of their last 5
Milwaukee at Washington, 7:05 PM ET
Milwaukee: 6-2 SU after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games
Washington: 33-42 SU after scoring 2 runs or less
Miami at NY Mets, 7:10 PM ET
Miami: 12-6 SU against left-handed starters
New York: 6-10 SU in home games against division opponents
Pittsburgh at St Louis, 8:15 PM ET
Pittsburgh: 17-12 SU as an underdog of +100 to +150
St Louis: 9-15 SU after having won 3 of their last 4
San Diego at Arizona, 9:40 PM ET
San Diego: 30-26 SU in night games
Arizona: 12-27 SU after 3 or more consecutive overs
Colorado at San Francisco, 10:15 PM ET
Colorado: 21-47 SU against left-handed starters
San Francisco: 24-4 SU as a favorite of -175 to -250
Kansas City at Toronto, 7:05 PM ET
Kansas City: 15-7 SU when the total is 8.5 to 10
Toronto: 8-10 SU against AL Central opponents
Detroit at Cleveland, 7:10 PM ET
Detroit: 0-15 SU as a road underdog of +175 to +250
Cleveland: 46-29 SU in games played on a grass field
LA Angels at Tampa Bay, 7:10 PM ET
Los Angeles: 49-27 SU after 3 straight games without giving up a stolen base
Tampa Bay: 7-16 SU after 2 or more consecutive unders
Texas at Boston, 7:10 PM ET
Texas: 7-1 SU after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6
Boston: 3-9 SU after scoring 7 runs or more 2 straight games
Seattle at Houston, 8:10 PM ET
Seattle: 23-11 SU in road games after scoring 2 runs or less
Houston: 34-54 SU after scoring and allowing 3 runs or less
Oakland at Minnesota, 8:10 PM ET
Oakland: 11-23 SU after 3 straight games where they committed no errors
Minneosta: 24-14 SU after 2 straight games where the bullpen gave up no runs
NY Yankees at Chicago White Sox, 8:10 PM ET
New York: 22-39 SU when playing on Tuesday
Chicago: 22-15 SU after 2 straight games without giving up a stolen base
Baltimore at LA Dodgers, 10:10 PM ET
Baltimore: 34-24 SU against right-handed starters
Los Angeles: 9-14 SU after a win by 2 runs or less
Short Sheet
Tuesday, July 5
Cincinnati at Chicago Cubs, 2:20 PM ET
Cincinnati: 7-31 SU as an underdog of +150 or more
Chicago: 32-16 SU in home games after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6
Atlanta at Philadelphia, 7:05 PM ET
Atlanta: 2-15 SU off a loss by 6 runs or more to a division rival
Philadelphia: 11-4 SU after having won 4 of their last 5
Milwaukee at Washington, 7:05 PM ET
Milwaukee: 6-2 SU after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games
Washington: 33-42 SU after scoring 2 runs or less
Miami at NY Mets, 7:10 PM ET
Miami: 12-6 SU against left-handed starters
New York: 6-10 SU in home games against division opponents
Pittsburgh at St Louis, 8:15 PM ET
Pittsburgh: 17-12 SU as an underdog of +100 to +150
St Louis: 9-15 SU after having won 3 of their last 4
San Diego at Arizona, 9:40 PM ET
San Diego: 30-26 SU in night games
Arizona: 12-27 SU after 3 or more consecutive overs
Colorado at San Francisco, 10:15 PM ET
Colorado: 21-47 SU against left-handed starters
San Francisco: 24-4 SU as a favorite of -175 to -250
Kansas City at Toronto, 7:05 PM ET
Kansas City: 15-7 SU when the total is 8.5 to 10
Toronto: 8-10 SU against AL Central opponents
Detroit at Cleveland, 7:10 PM ET
Detroit: 0-15 SU as a road underdog of +175 to +250
Cleveland: 46-29 SU in games played on a grass field
LA Angels at Tampa Bay, 7:10 PM ET
Los Angeles: 49-27 SU after 3 straight games without giving up a stolen base
Tampa Bay: 7-16 SU after 2 or more consecutive unders
Texas at Boston, 7:10 PM ET
Texas: 7-1 SU after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6
Boston: 3-9 SU after scoring 7 runs or more 2 straight games
Seattle at Houston, 8:10 PM ET
Seattle: 23-11 SU in road games after scoring 2 runs or less
Houston: 34-54 SU after scoring and allowing 3 runs or less
Oakland at Minnesota, 8:10 PM ET
Oakland: 11-23 SU after 3 straight games where they committed no errors
Minneosta: 24-14 SU after 2 straight games where the bullpen gave up no runs
NY Yankees at Chicago White Sox, 8:10 PM ET
New York: 22-39 SU when playing on Tuesday
Chicago: 22-15 SU after 2 straight games without giving up a stolen base
Baltimore at LA Dodgers, 10:10 PM ET
Baltimore: 34-24 SU against right-handed starters
Los Angeles: 9-14 SU after a win by 2 runs or less
MLB Tuesday's Best Bets:
TUESDAY, JULY 5
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS
ATL at PHI 07:05 PM
PHI -103
O 8.5
MIL at WAS 07:05 PM
O 8.5
KC at TOR 07:07 PM
TOR -153
TEX at BOS 07:10 PM
TEX +198
LAA at TB 07:10 PM
TB -180
O 8.5
DET at CLE 07:10 PM
CLE -193
U 8.5
MIA at NYM 07:10 PM
MIA +135
PIT at STL 08:09 PM
U 8.5
OAK at MIN 08:10 PM
MIN +109
O 9.5
NYY at CHW 08:10 PM
U 8.0
SEA at HOU 08:10 PM
HOU -143
SD at ARI 09:40 PM
SD +129
BAL at LAD 10:10 PM
BAL +135
O 7.5
COL at SF 10:15 PM
COL +201
U 7.0
TUESDAY, JULY 5
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS
ATL at PHI 07:05 PM
PHI -103
O 8.5
MIL at WAS 07:05 PM
O 8.5
KC at TOR 07:07 PM
TOR -153
TEX at BOS 07:10 PM
TEX +198
LAA at TB 07:10 PM
TB -180
O 8.5
DET at CLE 07:10 PM
CLE -193
U 8.5
MIA at NYM 07:10 PM
MIA +135
PIT at STL 08:09 PM
U 8.5
OAK at MIN 08:10 PM
MIN +109
O 9.5
NYY at CHW 08:10 PM
U 8.0
SEA at HOU 08:10 PM
HOU -143
SD at ARI 09:40 PM
SD +129
BAL at LAD 10:10 PM
BAL +135
O 7.5
COL at SF 10:15 PM
COL +201
U 7.0
2016 Golden Nugget GOY Odds
July 8, 2016
The 2016 college football season is still more than a month away but the Las Vegas Golden Nugget has posted point-spreads on their Games of Year this past Friday July, 8, 2016.
Sportsbook Director Tony Miller and his talented crew have highlighted specific matchups for all 15 weeks of the regular season.
Opening lines from the Golden Nugget Las Vegas are listed below with neutral sites listed in parenthesis.
Week 1
Odds Subject to Change - $1,000 Limits
Week 9-15
WEEK 2
Date Away Home
Saturday, Sept. 10 BYU Utah (-3.5)
Saturday, Sept. 10 Arkansas TCU (-4)
Saturday, Sept. 10 South Carolina Mississippi State (-9.5)
Saturday, Sept. 10 (Bristol, TN) Tennessee (-13) Virginia Tech
Saturday, Sept. 10 Virginia Oregon (-17.5)
WEEK 3
Date Away Home
Thursday, Sept. 15 Houston (-2) Cincinnati
Saturday, Sept. 17 Ohio State Oklahoma (-6.5)
Saturday, Sept. 17 Michigan State Notre Dame (-6)
Saturday, Sept. 17 Texas A&M Auburn (-5.5)
Saturday, Sept. 17 Mississippi State LSU (-11)
Saturday, Sept. 17 Alabama (-6) Ole Miss
Saturday, Sept. 17 USC Stanford (-6)
Saturday, Sept. 17 Oregon Nebraska (Pick 'em)
Saturday, Sept. 17 Florida State (-3) Louisville
Saturday, Sept. 17 UCLA (-2) BYU
WEEK 4
Date Away Home
Thursday, Sept. 22 Clemson (-12.5) Georgia Tech
Friday, Sept. 23 USC (-4) UTah
Saturday, Sept. 24 Stanford UCLA (Pick 'em)
Saturday, Sept. 24 LSU (-7) Auburn
Saturday, Sept. 24 Georgia Ole Miss (-4.5)
Saturday, Sept. 24 Florida Tennessee (-11)
Saturday, Sept. 24 Wisconsin Michigan State (-3)
Saturday, Sept. 24 (Landover, MD) West Virginia (-2.5) BYU
WEEK 5
Date Away Home
Friday, Sept. 30 Stanford Washington (-3)
Saturday, Oct. 1 Arizona State USC (-11)
Saturday, Oct. 1 Tennessee Georgia (Pick 'em)
Saturday, Oct. 1 North Carolina Florida State (-11.5)
Saturday, Oct. 1 Oklahoma (-8) TCU
Saturday, Oct. 1 Texas Oklahoma State (-10)
Saturday, Oct. 1 Wisconsin Michigan (-11.5)
WEEK 6
Date Away Home
Saturday, Oct. 8 Alabama (-8.5) Arkansas
Saturday, Oct. 8 LSU (-7.5) Florida
Saturday, Oct. 8 Auburn Mississippi State (Pick 'em)
Saturday, Oct. 8 Tennessee (-5) Texas A&M
Saturday, Oct. 8 UCLA (-4) Arizona State
Saturday, Oct. 8 (Dallas, Texas) Texas Oklahoma (-12)
Saturday, Oct. 8 Florida State (-7) Miami, Fl.
Saturday, Oct. 8 Notre Dame (-6) North Carolina State
Saturday, Oct. 8 Washington Oregon (-2)
WEEK 7
Date Away Home
Friday, Oct. 14 Mississippi State BYU (Pick 'em)
Saturday, Oct. 15 Stanford Notre Dame (-3)
Saturday, Oct. 15 Ole Miss (-1) Arkansas
Saturday, Oct. 15 Alabama Tennessee (-1)
Saturday, Oct. 15 USC (-3) Arizona
Saturday, Oct. 15 Ohio State (-6) Wisconsin
WEEK 8
Date Away Home
Thursday, Oct. 20 Miami, Fl. Virginia Tech (-3)
Thursday, Oct. 20 BYU Boise State (-6.5)
Friday, Oct. 21 Oregon (-7) California
Saturday, Oct. 22 Utah UCLA (-10)
Saturday, Oct. 22 Texas A&M Alabama (-14)
Saturday, Oct. 22 Arkansas Auburn (-3.5)
Saturday, Oct. 22 Ole Miss LSU (-9.5)
Saturday, Oct. 22 TCU West Virginia (-3)
WEEK 9
Date Away Home
Thursday, Oct. 27 California USC (-14.5)
Saturday, Oct. 29 Stanford (-5.5) Arizona
Saturday, Oct. 29 Arizona State Oregon (-12)
Saturday, Oct. 29 West Virginia Oklahoma State (-10)
Saturday, Oct. 29 Miami, Fl. Notre Dame (-7.5)
Saturday, Oct. 29 (Jacksonville, FL) Florida Georgia (-3)
Saturday, Oct. 29 Auburn Ole Miss (-8)
Saturday, Oct. 29 Michigan (-4) Michigan State
Saturday, Oct. 29 Clemson Florida State (-3.5)
WEEK 10
Date Away Home
Saturday, Nov. 5 Oregon USC (-1.5)
Saturday, Nov. 5 Florida State (-15) North Carolina State
Saturday, Nov. 5 Florida Arkansas (-2.5)
Saturday, Nov. 5 Alabama LSU (-2.5)
Saturday, Nov. 5 Texas Texas Tech (-4)
Saturday, Nov. 5 Nebraska Ohio State (-11)
Saturday, Nov. 5 (Jacksonville, FL) Navy Notre Dame (-13.5)
WEEK 11
Date Away Home
Thursday, Nov. 10 Utah Arizona State (-2.5)
Saturday, Nov. 12 Pittsburgh Clemson (-15.5)
Saturday, Nov. 12 Stanford Oregon (-3.5)
Saturday, Nov. 12 USC Washington (-4)
Saturday, Nov. 12 Mississippi State Alabama (-15)
Saturday, Nov. 12 LSU (-7.5) Arkansas
Saturday, Nov. 12 Auburn Georgia (-6.5)
Saturday, Nov. 12 Ole Miss Texas A&M (Pick 'em)
Saturday, Nov. 12 Michigan (-4.5) Iowa
WEEK 12
Date Away Home
Thursday, Nov. 17 Louisville Houston (-2.5)
Saturday, Nov. 19 Oklahoma (-9.5) West Virginia
Saturday, Nov. 19 Ohio State (-5) Michigan State
Saturday, Nov. 19 Virginia Tech Notre Dame (-8.5)
Saturday, Nov. 19 Arkansas Mississippi State (-2)
Saturday, Nov. 19 Ole Miss (-11) Vanderbilt
Saturday, Nov. 19 USC UCLA (-2.5)
Saturday, Nov. 19 Oregon (-3.5) Utah
Saturday, Nov. 19 Stanford (-10) California
WEEK 13
Date Away Home
Thursday, Nov. 24 LSU (-6) Texas A&M
Friday, Nov. 25 Nebraska Iowa (-1.5)
Friday, Nov. 25 Arizona State Arizona (-4.5)
Friday, Nov. 25 TCU Texas (Pick 'em)
Friday, Nov. 25 Houston (-5.5) Memphis
Saturday, Nov. 26 Notre Dame USC (-5)
Saturday, Nov. 26 Auburn Alabama (-15)
Saturday, Nov. 26 Florida Florida State (-11.5)
Saturday, Nov. 26 Georgia Tech Georgia (-13)
Saturday, Nov. 26 South Carolina Clemson (-20.5)
Saturday, Nov. 26 Michigan Ohio State (-3)
WEEK 14
Date Away Home
Saturday, Dec. 3 Oklahoma State Oklahoma (-9.5)
WEEK 15
Date Away Home
Saturday, Dec. 10 (Baltimore, MD) Army Navy (-12.5)
July 8, 2016
The 2016 college football season is still more than a month away but the Las Vegas Golden Nugget has posted point-spreads on their Games of Year this past Friday July, 8, 2016.
Sportsbook Director Tony Miller and his talented crew have highlighted specific matchups for all 15 weeks of the regular season.
Opening lines from the Golden Nugget Las Vegas are listed below with neutral sites listed in parenthesis.
Week 1
Odds Subject to Change - $1,000 Limits
Week 9-15
WEEK 2
Date Away Home
Saturday, Sept. 10 BYU Utah (-3.5)
Saturday, Sept. 10 Arkansas TCU (-4)
Saturday, Sept. 10 South Carolina Mississippi State (-9.5)
Saturday, Sept. 10 (Bristol, TN) Tennessee (-13) Virginia Tech
Saturday, Sept. 10 Virginia Oregon (-17.5)
WEEK 3
Date Away Home
Thursday, Sept. 15 Houston (-2) Cincinnati
Saturday, Sept. 17 Ohio State Oklahoma (-6.5)
Saturday, Sept. 17 Michigan State Notre Dame (-6)
Saturday, Sept. 17 Texas A&M Auburn (-5.5)
Saturday, Sept. 17 Mississippi State LSU (-11)
Saturday, Sept. 17 Alabama (-6) Ole Miss
Saturday, Sept. 17 USC Stanford (-6)
Saturday, Sept. 17 Oregon Nebraska (Pick 'em)
Saturday, Sept. 17 Florida State (-3) Louisville
Saturday, Sept. 17 UCLA (-2) BYU
WEEK 4
Date Away Home
Thursday, Sept. 22 Clemson (-12.5) Georgia Tech
Friday, Sept. 23 USC (-4) UTah
Saturday, Sept. 24 Stanford UCLA (Pick 'em)
Saturday, Sept. 24 LSU (-7) Auburn
Saturday, Sept. 24 Georgia Ole Miss (-4.5)
Saturday, Sept. 24 Florida Tennessee (-11)
Saturday, Sept. 24 Wisconsin Michigan State (-3)
Saturday, Sept. 24 (Landover, MD) West Virginia (-2.5) BYU
WEEK 5
Date Away Home
Friday, Sept. 30 Stanford Washington (-3)
Saturday, Oct. 1 Arizona State USC (-11)
Saturday, Oct. 1 Tennessee Georgia (Pick 'em)
Saturday, Oct. 1 North Carolina Florida State (-11.5)
Saturday, Oct. 1 Oklahoma (-8) TCU
Saturday, Oct. 1 Texas Oklahoma State (-10)
Saturday, Oct. 1 Wisconsin Michigan (-11.5)
WEEK 6
Date Away Home
Saturday, Oct. 8 Alabama (-8.5) Arkansas
Saturday, Oct. 8 LSU (-7.5) Florida
Saturday, Oct. 8 Auburn Mississippi State (Pick 'em)
Saturday, Oct. 8 Tennessee (-5) Texas A&M
Saturday, Oct. 8 UCLA (-4) Arizona State
Saturday, Oct. 8 (Dallas, Texas) Texas Oklahoma (-12)
Saturday, Oct. 8 Florida State (-7) Miami, Fl.
Saturday, Oct. 8 Notre Dame (-6) North Carolina State
Saturday, Oct. 8 Washington Oregon (-2)
WEEK 7
Date Away Home
Friday, Oct. 14 Mississippi State BYU (Pick 'em)
Saturday, Oct. 15 Stanford Notre Dame (-3)
Saturday, Oct. 15 Ole Miss (-1) Arkansas
Saturday, Oct. 15 Alabama Tennessee (-1)
Saturday, Oct. 15 USC (-3) Arizona
Saturday, Oct. 15 Ohio State (-6) Wisconsin
WEEK 8
Date Away Home
Thursday, Oct. 20 Miami, Fl. Virginia Tech (-3)
Thursday, Oct. 20 BYU Boise State (-6.5)
Friday, Oct. 21 Oregon (-7) California
Saturday, Oct. 22 Utah UCLA (-10)
Saturday, Oct. 22 Texas A&M Alabama (-14)
Saturday, Oct. 22 Arkansas Auburn (-3.5)
Saturday, Oct. 22 Ole Miss LSU (-9.5)
Saturday, Oct. 22 TCU West Virginia (-3)
WEEK 9
Date Away Home
Thursday, Oct. 27 California USC (-14.5)
Saturday, Oct. 29 Stanford (-5.5) Arizona
Saturday, Oct. 29 Arizona State Oregon (-12)
Saturday, Oct. 29 West Virginia Oklahoma State (-10)
Saturday, Oct. 29 Miami, Fl. Notre Dame (-7.5)
Saturday, Oct. 29 (Jacksonville, FL) Florida Georgia (-3)
Saturday, Oct. 29 Auburn Ole Miss (-8)
Saturday, Oct. 29 Michigan (-4) Michigan State
Saturday, Oct. 29 Clemson Florida State (-3.5)
WEEK 10
Date Away Home
Saturday, Nov. 5 Oregon USC (-1.5)
Saturday, Nov. 5 Florida State (-15) North Carolina State
Saturday, Nov. 5 Florida Arkansas (-2.5)
Saturday, Nov. 5 Alabama LSU (-2.5)
Saturday, Nov. 5 Texas Texas Tech (-4)
Saturday, Nov. 5 Nebraska Ohio State (-11)
Saturday, Nov. 5 (Jacksonville, FL) Navy Notre Dame (-13.5)
WEEK 11
Date Away Home
Thursday, Nov. 10 Utah Arizona State (-2.5)
Saturday, Nov. 12 Pittsburgh Clemson (-15.5)
Saturday, Nov. 12 Stanford Oregon (-3.5)
Saturday, Nov. 12 USC Washington (-4)
Saturday, Nov. 12 Mississippi State Alabama (-15)
Saturday, Nov. 12 LSU (-7.5) Arkansas
Saturday, Nov. 12 Auburn Georgia (-6.5)
Saturday, Nov. 12 Ole Miss Texas A&M (Pick 'em)
Saturday, Nov. 12 Michigan (-4.5) Iowa
WEEK 12
Date Away Home
Thursday, Nov. 17 Louisville Houston (-2.5)
Saturday, Nov. 19 Oklahoma (-9.5) West Virginia
Saturday, Nov. 19 Ohio State (-5) Michigan State
Saturday, Nov. 19 Virginia Tech Notre Dame (-8.5)
Saturday, Nov. 19 Arkansas Mississippi State (-2)
Saturday, Nov. 19 Ole Miss (-11) Vanderbilt
Saturday, Nov. 19 USC UCLA (-2.5)
Saturday, Nov. 19 Oregon (-3.5) Utah
Saturday, Nov. 19 Stanford (-10) California
WEEK 13
Date Away Home
Thursday, Nov. 24 LSU (-6) Texas A&M
Friday, Nov. 25 Nebraska Iowa (-1.5)
Friday, Nov. 25 Arizona State Arizona (-4.5)
Friday, Nov. 25 TCU Texas (Pick 'em)
Friday, Nov. 25 Houston (-5.5) Memphis
Saturday, Nov. 26 Notre Dame USC (-5)
Saturday, Nov. 26 Auburn Alabama (-15)
Saturday, Nov. 26 Florida Florida State (-11.5)
Saturday, Nov. 26 Georgia Tech Georgia (-13)
Saturday, Nov. 26 South Carolina Clemson (-20.5)
Saturday, Nov. 26 Michigan Ohio State (-3)
WEEK 14
Date Away Home
Saturday, Dec. 3 Oklahoma State Oklahoma (-9.5)
WEEK 15
Date Away Home
Saturday, Dec. 10 (Baltimore, MD) Army Navy (-12.5)
MWC Outlook - Mountain
July 12, 2016
West Division
Mountain West Conference - Mountain Division Preview
Last year's straight-up, against the spread, and over/under results are included for each team, presented in predicted order of finish...
The end of an era, perhaps? Fans at Boise State (2015 SU 9-4; ATS 6-7) were acting so after the Broncos surrendered the Mountain West crown last season and lost multiple times on their home blue carpet for the first time since 1998. The rabid support base was caught off-guard much as the “remain” crowd in the UK for the recent Brexit vote. How could it happen?
Some are suggesting the fall from the perch was inevitable after HC Chris Petersen left following the 2013 season for Washington, though we believe that is too simple of an explanation. Remember, Petersen’s last team finished an underwhelming 8-5, so it is not as if the ground has suddenly given way beneath the blue carpet for successor Bryan Harsin, whose two-year SU record at Boise is a solid 21-6.
If any Broncos fans are looking for positive bounce-back analogies, we remind them that the NHL Edmonton Oilers won their last Stanley Cup two years after the departure of Wayne Gretzky. (You’ve heard of him, right...Paulina’s dad.)
So, lots of regional observers are anticipating a quick recovery by the 2016 Broncos, whose flagship status means much to the Mountain West. Though Boise will be traveling only once outside its region (for an opener at UL-Lafayette on September 3), most onlookers in the Rockies believe the Broncos are still the league’s best chance to make an impression on the national scene.
Harsin, who earlier in his career had served as Petersen’s o.c., has not exactly been the captain of the Titanic. Last year’s Boise scored a whopping 39.1 ppg and gained over 500 ypg, hardly dropping off of the map. The Broncos also closed their season with a 55-7 dismantling of a representative Northern Illinois side in the Poinsettia Bowl, allowing the Huskies only 33 total yards in the process. So, if nothing else, Boise hit the offseason with a spring in its step.
Speaking of spring, the seasonal variety, it was adjustment time again as the Broncos worked in their fifth different offensive coordinator in six seasons after Eliah Drinkwitz took a similar post at NC State. (Mike Sanford left the previous year for Notre Dame.) For 2016, Zak Hill has been imported from Eastern Washington, where he oversaw a high-powered spread in recent years, to be joined by Scott Huff, promoted from OL coach, in a joint o.c. effort, though Harsin will put on his old play-calling hat and assume those duties. Meanwhile, former LB coach Andy Avalos has been promoted to defensive coordinator after Marcel Yates was lured away by Rich Rodriguez at Arizona.
Prospects are bullish for a strike force that returns eight starters including soph QB Brett Rypien, Mark’s nephew, who passed for 3353 yards and 20 TDs as a true frosh last fall. That was good enough to earn Rypien All-MW honors, though Harsin will want to make sure Rypien stays healthy with no experienced cover behind him. Still, the ride was not all smooth last fall for Rypien, who had a few erratic efforts that contributed to late-season losses vs. New Mexico and Air Force, and his arm seemed to tire as the season progressed, as the deep ball threat disappeared in November. Giving Rypien the benefit of the doubt, he was expected to redshirt last season before starter Ryan Finley broke an ankle in mid-September; Rypien’s first start came in the fourth game, September 25 at Virginia. If he can stay healthy, and with more experience avoids the "tired arm" syndrome, Rypien should be firing all of the way into a higher-profile bowl game this fall.
Experienced playmakers still dot the offense, with RB Jeremy McNichols worth 1317 yards rushing, 460 yards receiving, and 26 TDs a year ago to qualify as one of the nation’s top all-purpose threats. Senior wideout Thomas Sperbeck, the Fiesta Bowl MVP two years ago, was good for 88 receptions a year ago, while fellow WR Chaz Anderson (42 catches LY) and TE Jake Roh (33 receptions 2016) are other proven contributors. Frosh likely provide skill-position depth (watch WR Bubby Ogbehor out of Frisco, TX), while four starters are back along the OL. Last year’s PK (Tyler Rausa, who was 25-30 on FG tries LY) and P (Sean Wale) both return.
New d.c. Avalos has a bit more work to do with a stop unit that lost seven starters and, despite ranking 12th nationally, was overrun by a couple of Mountain Division option teams (New Mexico and Air Force) that both won on the blue carpet last November. The line is the area of utmost concern with all new starters up front and little experience in the fold aside from sr. DT Sam McCaskill, one of last year’s rotation pieces. Newcomers will need to play important roles. The strength of the platoon is likely at the LB spots where 2015 leading tackler Ben Warren and third-leading tackler Tanner Vallejo return as starters. Three seniors are slated to start in the secondary, including CB Jonathan Maxey & S Chanceller James, but young talent needs to provide depth.
Already, there is a buzz in Boise about the September 10 visit of Mike Leach’s Washington State and potential Heisman candidate QB Luke Falk, but if the Broncos survive that test they likely enter conference play in the national rankings. Boise has a score to settle vs. three Mountain foes (New Mexico, Air Force, and Utah State, on the road to face the Lobos and Falcons, the latter having beaten Harsin the past two seasons) that won vs. the Broncos a year ago, and worth noting that Boise misses heavy West favorite San Diego State. At least until a possible showdown in the conference title game, which, in a perfect world for the MW, would see the winner qualify for a spot in a New Year’s Six bowl, as the Broncos achieved in 2014 when invited to the Fiesta (and beating Arizona).
Spread-wise, it has been a while since Boise was dominant on the blue carpet. Ongoing heavy pointspread premiums resulted in only a 2-4 performance vs. the line at home last season (one of those W vs. Big Sky Idaho State) and an 11-21 mark dating to late 2010 and the final stages of the Petersen era. The Broncos, however, continue to excel as road chalk, now 31-14 in that role since 2008 (4-2 a year ago).
The last reconstruction job as successful as the one undertaken by HC Bob Davie at New Mexico (2015 SU 7-6; ATS 7-6)? Perhaps it was Ulysses S. Grant trying to mend the Union after the Civil War. In football terms, Davie has done a near-comparable job in Albuquerque after inheriting a carcass of a program from the failed Mike Locksley regime in 2012.
To refresh memories, Locksley was the ill-fated hire made by New Mexico after forcing out alum and longtime HC Rocky Long following the 2008 season. Locksley proceeded to author the definitive deconstruct of a program that would win a mere one game each of the next three seasons, the latter in 2011 with interim CH George Barlow in charge for the lone W (vs. UNLV, by the way) following Locksley’s ouster early in the campaign. Enter Davie, the former Notre Dame mentor who left a cushy gig at ESPN and a pleasant home in Scottsdale to take his first sideline job in over a decade. So desperate was his coaching itch that he took on the challenge of resurrecting maybe the worst program in the country upon his hiring.
That was four years ago, and Davie began to mix and match with a threadbare roster of only 51 remaining players on scholarship, almost none from the first Locksley recruiting class three years earlier. Off of the bat, Davie schemed effectively, leaning upon a handful of holdover fifth-year seniors originally recruited by Long for leadership, and reckoning the an option-based run offense out of the Pistol was his best chance to slow down the games and run the clock and keep his undermanned defense off of the field. The Lobos didn’t win consistently right away, but they weren’t Locksley-bad, either, as the program slowly began to take on the look of a real college football entry.
Which brings us to last year, and what would be the cherry on top of the cake for Davie’s efforts, a surprise 7-5 regular-season record and qualification for the hometown New Mexico Bowl against Arizona. Never mind that the Lobos lost that one in a wild 45-37 shootout; Davie’s accomplishment at getting New Mexico to the postseason rates as one of the top coaching jobs we recall in the past decade. The Lobos were even good enough to notch one of the biggest pointspread upsets in modern history when winning win at Boise State as a 30 1/2-point underdog in mid-November. To prove that was no fluke, New Mexico would end its regular season with a decisive home win over Mountain Division champion Air Force.
With expectations now enhanced in Lobo-land for the first time in almost a decade, Davie seems well-positioned for an encore and another bowl bid. We’ll see how New Mexico embraces the new target on its back after flying under the radar to this point in the Davie era.
Not willing to rest on his laurels, Davie has been altering the recipe a bit lately, especially with an offense that might have lost its element of surprise out of the Pistol. Though the Lobos still ranked a very respectable 9th nationally in rushing, their 252 ypg last fall was more than 50 yards beneath the lowest total in Davie’s first three seasons. Davie has since juggled assignments for most of his offensive staff, though Bob DeBessie (now tutoring the WRs instead of QBs) retains the coordinator role.
The slow changes began last season when the Lobos would demonstrate a bit more balance by attempting more than 50 passes above any previous Davie UNM entry. Part of that was to do with the presence of former juco and one-time Washington State QB Austin Apodaca, the designated “passer” threat of a two-man platoon alongside Lamar Jordan, who took more snaps and actually passed for more yards. Though Jordan remains the “run” QB after rushing for 807 yards a year ago. Both return to what would appear to be a similar arrangement for the fall, with Apodaca likely utilized again as an effective change-of-pace option.
The main question for the offense likely involves breaking in three new starters along the OL. Teriyon Gipson remains a coast-to-coast threat at RB, and Davie has had no shortage of quick-hitting backs in recent years. The top two receivers, led by sr. WR Dameon Gamblin (35 catches LY), also return. As does one-time QB Cole Gautsche, hampered by injuries throughout his career but a mega-athlete and now a 260-lb. moose ready for work at TE after getting healthy in a redshirt season a year ago. Davie will also be looking for a new kick-return threat after the graduated Carlos Wiggins brought five back for scores in his career.
While the Lobo offensive numbers in 2015 still bore a resemblance to previous Davie editions, it was upgrades along the “D” that allowed New Mexico to go “bowling” for the first time since 2007.The improvements need to be viewed in context; the Lobos were still susceptible to dramatic collapses, as evident in the bowl loss to Arizona. But those came less frequently than previous years when the Lobos routinely ranked in triple-digits in all relevant stat categories. Last year, it was merely high double-digits all of the way, and the 28.4 ppg allowed was by far the best of any UNM defense back to the Rocky Long era. The Lobos allowed 81 ypg fewer than in 2014 and had 15 more takeaways than in 2013, the year before d.c Kevin Cosgrove arrived. UNM also recorded 30 sacks a year ago, another Davie-era best, and excelled in the red zone last season, allowing only 34 scores in 49 opponent forays, which ranked 4th-best in the nation.
The good news is that nine starters return from 2015, including star MLB Dakota Cox, the heart-and-soul of the platoon and one of the MW’s best who led the Lobos with 97 tackles a year ago. In fact, the entire starting front six in UNM’s 3-3-5 returns, including most of the rotation pieces along a DL anchored by sr. DE Nik D’Avanzo. Cox, with fellow srs. Kimmie Carson and Donnie White, might make up the top LB corps in the MW. There are some depth concerns in the secondary, partly due to the tragic death of S Markel Byrd in a car accident just a few days after the bowl loss to Arizona, though FS Daniel Henry and nickel back Lee Crosby, the most productive players on the back end, return for their senior seasons. As indeed are ten of the eleven projected starters, making the Lobo “D” one of the most experienced in the nation.
The schedule is favorable, with an odd trip to rebuilding Rutgers probably the toughest non-conference challenge. The game vs. Mountain Division foe Air Force has been moved from Colorado Springs to the Cotton Bowl in Dallas, and Boise State (against which Davie's teams are 4-0 vs. the line) visits University Stadium on October 8. Absent from the slate is heavy West favorite San Diego State.
Spread-wise, notable in recent years has been Davie’s success vs. the line on the road, where the Lobos are 11-5 vs. the spread their last 16 tries. Within the Mountain Division, Davie’s team has covered four straight not only vs. Boise State, but Air Force as well, though it has dropped four straight vs. Colorado State.
Two years ago, we weren’t sure how much longer we would be talking about HC Troy Calhoun at Air Force (2015 SU 8-6; ATS 8-5). The Falcs had been losing altitude for a while and were off of a brutal 2-10 collapse in 2013 that was the program’s worst-ever mark, which included some very lean years in the 1970s. Moreover, long-serving AD Hans Mueh, the man who hired the former fly-boy Calhoun to replace his mentor, Fisher DeBerry, for the 2007 season, was ready to retire from his post. The gears seemed to be in motion for a change unless Calhoun could get things turned around and quickly.
Fast-forward two years and Calhoun is back again on firm footing after 18 wins, a pair of bowl appearances, and a Mountain Division crown, causing Gregg Popovich and other alums to chuckle and wonder what all the fuss was about in the first place. Calhoun has now qualified for the postseason in seven of eight campaigns at the Force, something even the legendary DeBerry, now in the Atlanta College Football HOF, could not accomplish with the Falcs (DeBerry never went to more than six bowls during any of his eight-year spans).
In retrospect, 2013 was the aberration, a season wrecked by a cascade of injuries that especially decimated the QB position.With a bit better injury luck, Air Force has returned to its normal perch in the MW under Calhoun in the two seasons since.
(We’re glad Calhoun is still in the fold, if for no other reason than being annually amused by the Air Force coach at the summer Mountain West Media Days, where Calhoun’s peculiar demeanor and manner more resembles that of a CIA spook than the usual coaching stereotypes.)
As Air Force’s option-based offense has routinely reloaded over the years, there is not much worry at the Academy at the thought of the strike force replacing seven starters, including almost the entirety of last year’s starting OL, for this fall. There is near-giddiness, however, at the thought of nine starters back and experience all across the field for a defense that was one of the best in the Calhoun era and ranked in the top quartile nationally of several key stat categories.
The key a year ago for d.c. Steve Russ was the ability to bring pressure from all angles in the hopes of disrupting opposing QBs who would be less likely to exploit the Falcs’ athletic mismatches on the edge. The Force’s 37 sacks confirmed the Russ tactics and would rank a very respectable 23rd in the nation and key the ascent to the Mountain half crown.
Even with all of the returnees, there is some concern about filling the role of graduated Alex Hansen, a pass-rush beast considered by Calhoun as the best DE he has ever coached. (That sort of praise is so out of character for the normally-calculating Calhoun that we have to believe him.) But still in the fold is perhaps the best defensive playmaker in the MW, all-name SS Weston Steelhammer, a rare combo of aggressiveness against the run coupled with ball-hawk tendencies, partly explaining his 11 career interceptions. Steelhammer’s value to the Force “D” was never underlined more than after his ejection in the Armed Forces Bowl vs. Cal, when the Falc stop unit unraveled afterward. An all-senior 2ndary also features CB Roland Ladipo, an All-MW selection a year ago.
Last year, the offense would continue to post its usual top ten rushing stats (in 2015 it was 319 ypg, good for fourth nationally), though it had to revert to a more pure version of its option roots after QB Nate Romine, the rare Force QB who passes better than he runs, was lost to a knee injury in the second week vs. San Jose State. Senior relief pitcher Karson Roberts was well-versed in the nuances of the option but could not stretch a field with his arm as Romine, who returns for his senior season with perhaps the best Falc receiving threat since the long-ago days of Ernie Jennings, Jalen Robinette, a unique big-play target. Even with the limited Roberts at the controls, Robinette caught 26 passes for a staggering 24.7 yards per reception with 5 TDs in 2015 and should significantly improve upon those numbers if QB Romine can stay healthy this fall.
As usual, Calhoun’s offense will feature a deep collection of runners. As Robinette is a playmaker for the passing game, slashing TB Jacobi Owens (1092 YR in 2016) is for the infantry, gaining serious yards last season even after he was temporarily switched to the FB spot due to injuries. Junior Timothy McVey offers relief for Owens and perhaps a greater homerun threat after gaining a whopping 8.5 ypc last fall. Though injured for parts of last season, fullbacks Shayne Davern and D.J. Johnson are brutishly effective, as Air Force option protocols demand, when healthy. Junior PK Luke Strebel missed only 1 of his 11 FG tries a year ago.
As in every season, there are dual goals for the Force, winning the Commander-in-Chief Trophy as well as the Mountain West. The Falcs, who won the former as recently as 2014, get nemesis Navy at home on October 1 as the highlight of non-conference action. There is also no San Diego State from the West on the 2016 slate and no distractions of a trip to Hawaii (the Rainbow Warriors instead visit Falcon Stadium on October 22), though the Falcs rather enjoyed their time in paradise last Halloween when blasting UH, 58-7, given an escort out of Aloha Stadium by Hawaii Five-O. The Mountain title could come down to the regular-season finale at home on Thanksgiving weekend vs. Boise State, which has been outplayed and beaten by Calhoun each of the last two years.
Spread-wise, Calhoun has also rehabilitated the past two seasons after the downturns of 2012 & ‘13, when the Falcs were a combined 6-19 vs. the line; Air Force is 16-10-1 against the number since. Moreover, the Force has once again turned Falcon Stadium into a fortress, standing 9-2-1 vs. the line as host the past two seasons after slumping at Colorado Springs in previous years. Interestingly, the Falcs have been “over” 20-7 the past two years.
It has been an interesting few seasons for Utah State (2015 SU 6-7; ATS 5-8). The Utags have not only switched leagues (WAC to Mountain West in 2013) but have also qualified for five straight bowls, which would have seemed a pipe dream in Logan not long ago, especially before HC Gary Andersen arrived in 2009 from a successful stint as d.c. at Utah. Andersen would thus revive the program before leaving for Wisconsin and turning over the reins to his o.c. Matt Wells, who has continued the uptick with three straight bowl visits.
(Andersen, however, continues to be indirectly impacting the program. Sources inform us that when Oregon State called Andersen, still at Wisconsin, after the 2014 season, and looking for a recommendation on Wells to become the new coach in Corvallis, Andersen would instead offer himself as an alternative to succeed Mike Riley, who had moved to Nebraska. Presto, Andersen was OSU’s new coach and Wells stayed at USU. But the Andersen/Beaver connection to Logan remains, as this fall’s projected OSU starting QB Darell Garretson is a transfer from...you guessed it, Utah State. Not to mention new OSU d.c. Kevin Clune, hired from...yep, Utah State.)
There are some signs, however, that the Utags might be slipping just a bit, as a late-season fade in 2015, including a bitter Idaho Potato Bowl loss to Akron, would drop the team to 6-7 and the first losing campaign since 2010. All of this after a midseason 52-26 rout of Boise State in Logan seemed to stamp the Utags as the team to beat in the Mountain half of the loop. Then, in the offseason, both coordinators, the aforementioned d.c. Kevin Clune (to Oregon State) and o.c. Josh Heupel (to Missouri...not Oregon State!) both moved. Thus, both the “O” and “D” will be looking at their third (and fourth, technically, with co-d.c.’s lined up) coordinators, respectively, in as many seasons this fall. Another familiar face, that of longtime and injury-susceptible QB Chuckie Keeton, has also left the Logan scene after his eligibility, which seemed to date to the Merlin Olsen era, was finally exhausted.
The Wells offense, which sagged to a 93rd national ranking a year ago, is now under the shared tutelage of co-coordinators Jevon Bouknight, promoted from passing game coordinator, and Luke Wells, who has been on the USU staff since brother Matt was promoted in 2013. The braintrust began to implement their new ideas in spring when emphasis was mostly centered upon establishing the run. “I want a 1000-yard back,” said HC Wells. “I want to be able to say we are a run-first football team.” Well, if the head coach insists, that’s what we suppose the Utags will get this fall.
Spring work showcased plenty of RB options, though for the time being it would appear as if powerful 220-lb. Devante Mays, a bit reminiscent of recent USU star RB Robert Turbin, is Wells’ likely 1000-yard man after nearly reaching that plateau last fall when gaining 966 YR. Along with jr. RB LaJuan Hunt, and returnee QB Kent Myers, the trio would combine for 1660 YR a year ago, numbers that figure to increase this fall.
The elusive jr. Myers, who took most of the snaps last season as Keeton was again sidelined with injuries, is a playmaker who has passed for 21 TDs (vs. just 6 picks) and nearly 2500 yards the past two seasons while filling in for Keeton or splitting snaps with now-departed Garretson in 2014. Myers and his arm were good enough to throw for 364 yards and 4 TDs vs. Air Force last November, so we wonder if the coaches should perhaps turn Myers loose rather than worry so much about establishing the run. The Utags must replace departed top receiver Hunter Sharp, who caught 71 passes last season, but sr. TE Wyatt Houston (28 catches in 2015) is one of the best in the MW, and plenty of candidates are in the queue at WR, including ex-RB Kennedy Williams and one of the stars of srping, RS frosh Gerold Bright. Four starters also return on the OL.
There are more concerns on a defense that only returns three starters from a Bizarro, “break-but-don’t-bend” stop unit in 2015 that ranked among the nation’s leaders in yards per play (only 4.9) but in the depths of red zone efficiency. Moreover, the hearts-and-souls of last year’s platoon were taken in the third round of the NFL Draft–LBs Nick Vigil (Bengals) and Kyle Fackrell (Packers) with back-to-back selections. Only one starter returns in the front seven, DE Ricky Ali’fua, while NG Travis Seefeldt returns to the mix after sitting out last season following traffic accident injuries. Only three of the 10 LBs who took snaps a year ago are back in the fold.
The most experienced position group on the defense is in the secondary, which returns starters at a corner (jr. Jalen Davis) and SS (sr. Devin Centers). Transfer Dallin Leavitt was a two-year starter at BYU and was running first-string at FS exiting spring. New co-coordinators Frank Maile and Kendrick Shaver are familiar with the Logan operation, each on staff in recent years and promoted in tandem to replace Clune.
We should know within the first month of the season if Wells has a contender on his hands, with the first two league games vs. Mountain rivals Air Force and revenge-minded Boise State (this time on the blue carpet). Non-league games at USC and BYU, plus questions on defense, may limit the upside to a minor bowl at best for Wells’ team. To do any better might require Wells turning QB Myers loose, but from the sound of things after spring work, we’re not holding our breath for that to happen.
Spread-wise, the Utags had been a dynamite underdog performer for several years prior to the ascent of Wells, recording a 19-5 spread mark in that role for Anderson before sagging to 5-8 as a “the short” the past three seasons. The Wells Utags have also been a decidedly “over” performer (27-13 the past three seasons).
We wonder what Mike Bobo was thinking after alma mater Georgia was looking for a coach following last season. Of course, Bobo had moved from o.c. on Mark Richt’s staff to the HC spot at Colorado State (2015 SU 7-6; ATS 6-6-1) prior to the 2015 campaign. Many in SEC country believed Bobo was likely to take a head coaching job, such as CSU, ostensibly to cut his teeth as the top dog, before returning to the SEC, maybe at his beloved Georgia.
Well, Bobo still might get back to the SEC, but probably not at Georgia for a while after the Bulldogs hired Alabama d.c. Kirby Smart instead. Bobo, who would have been an unlikely immediate successor to Richt had he stayed in Athens last season, thus has a bit more time to establish his credentials before perhaps returning home, maybe in the near future if Smart succeeds Nick Saban at Alabama. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves.
The homespun Bobo has some work to do with his own portfolio after proving a bit of an awkward fit in the Mountain West, and not just because there are no Waffle Houses or real Southern style BBQ anywhere near Fort Collins. Bobo effectively junked the Jim McElwain spread offense that produced big numbers and made QB Garrett Grayson an NFL draftee (Saints) before “Coach Mac” took the job at Florida. Bobo would instead introduce an older-style SEC offense to the Mountain West, complete with a traditional fullback (!) that has been an endangered species in the MW for years. The new look certainly did not serve to highlight star WR Rashard Higgins as did the McElwain offense; Higgins’ stats were considerably down from 2014 (receiving yards from 1750 to 1062; TDs from 17 to 6), as was his NFL Draft stock, sinking to the 5th round (Browns) after projecting as a possible 2nd-or-3rd-round pick prior.
The drop from 2014 that most alarmed Rams fans, however, was from 10 wins under McElwain to just seven a year ago. After a brief uptick when winning four straight to close the regular season and get bowl-eligible for a third straight year, the season would end up with a very unsatisfactory feel, too, after losing an All-MW Arizona Bowl vs. Nevada in front of a sparse gathering in Tucson.
We wouldn’t expect things to look appreciably different this fall with four starters back on the OL, plus a seasoned QB and a two-deep RB attack. The QB is jr. Nick Stevens, who flashed some nice upside in his starting debut, even if his stats paled in comparison to predecessor Grayson; Stevens would throw for 2679 yards and 21 TDs, though his pick total (12) was a bit high, part of an overall giveaway problem reflected in CSU’s poor -12 TO margin, ranking 117th nationally.
To keep Stevens on his toes, Bobo has imported Faton Bauta, a graduate transfer from Georgia who knows the Bobo offense from Athens, even though he took only a handful of snaps with the Bulldogs. True frosh Collin Hill is a recruit from South Carolina who would enroll early to participate in spring practice but is a likely redshirt candidate in the fall.
The Rams played within themselves last season as they strove to balance the offense, taking more than a bit away from the old McElwain passing game while putting more emphasis in the infantry. With the returnees along the OL and top RBs Dalyn Dawkins (former Purdue transfer; 867 YR LY) and soph Izzy Matthews (6.1 ypc in 2015), expect CSU to try to pick up where it left off December. Maybe even with more emphasis on the run, as star WR Higgins has moved to the NFL, RB Dawkins the leading returning receiver (24 catches LY) on the roster, and little experience among the returning wideouts and at TE. If the offense bogs down, Ray Guy Award finalist P Hayden Hunt can usually kick the team out of trouble.
What scares the locals in Fort Collins is that the offense might have to pick up the pace to compensate for a defense in semi-rebuild mode. Coordinator Tyson Summers left to become HC at Georgia Southern, with former LB Coach Marty English inheriting the d.c. duties, which he held as a co-coordinator during the McElwain years. In the process, English will re-install the 3-4 alignments he utilized under McElwain.
Five starters return, though none are on a DL that was a bit permissive vs. the run in 2015, ranking a lowly 107th against the rush. The strength of the platoon is likely at LB, where top tacklers srs. Kevin Davis (101 tackles LY) and Deonte Clyburn (74 tackles in 2015) return to anchor. Two starters return in the secondary but there was news in this area during spring, when former WR Jordan Vaden was moved to CB and exited drills as a starter, while several juco imports, inclduing CBs A’Keitheon Whitner and FS Houston Haynes, made positive impressions. Touted JC transfer CB Devron Davis arrives for fall camp.
As usual, the tenor of the early part of the season is going to be set by the game vs. rival Colorado, this September taking place opening week (a Friday night special at that) in Denver. Trips to Big Ten Minnesota, and Mountain West meatgrinders at Boise, Air Force, and San Diego State loom as hurdles. Several winnable games, however, appear to be on tap in the testimonial season of venerable Hughes Stadium, nestled in the foothills of the Rockies and a few miles from campus. Expect emotion to be heavy for the home finale vs. New Mexico on November 19. We’re guessing CSU moves into its new on-campus stadium next year off of another minor bowl appearance, with 6-6 sounding about right.
Spread-wise, after CSU entered Bobo’s debut season having covered 21 of its last 30 against the number, the Rams were a non-descript 6-6-1 vs. the line a year ago. CSU continued to fare well at Hughes Stadium, covering 4 of 5, and now 14-5 vs. the spread its last 19 as host dating to late 2012.
Well, there’s a couple of ways we can look at what HC Craig Bohl left behind at North Dakota State, where he won three straight national titles before taking the job two years ago at Wyoming (2015 SU 2-10; ATS 6-6). All the Bison have done since is continue to win FCS-level championships as they had done for Bohl. Plus, QB Carson Wentz would be the second player taken in April’s NFL Draft when tabbed by the Eagles.
So, did Bohl create such a machine at NDSU that it could continue to win after he left? Or did Bohl just have such a talent edge that he couldn't help but win at the Missouri Valley and FCS levels...something he has yet to do in Laramie.
Though the jury remains out on Bohl with Wyo, most MW insiders are giving him the benefit of the doubt and expecting the Cowboys to start a slow climb back to respectability this fall. After all, Bohl did not inherit a powerhouse from predecessor Dave Christensen. Then again, the Christensen Cowboys were never threatening a winless season as Wyo was a year ago, dropping their first six before finally getting in the W column with a close win over Nevada. The Pokes’ 2-10 SU mark would be the worst at the school since 2002, a performance that forced HC Vic Koenning, who was just 5-29 in three seasons, to walk the plank.
Some MW observers nonetheless believe a breakthrough for Dick Cheney’s alma mater is imminent, citing the return of nine starters to an offense that unfortunately ranked in triple digits nationally in most meaningful categories.There is hope, however, that a full plate of returning starters on the OL and beast-mode jr. RB Brian Hill can lead a resurgence.
Hill, with his punishing Marshawn Lynch-like style and long hair, is now a 220-lb. smash machine who runs with the reckless abandon of Lynch and gained a whopping 1631 YR as the main highlight for Wyo in 2015. That set a Cowboy single-season record and has already made Hill the fifth-leading rusher in school history. Hill carried more of the load last fall because of the early season-ending concussion suffered by backfield mate Shaun Wick, himself the Cowboys’ ninth-leading all-time rusher (2179 YR). Though Hill’s numbers might reduce some with a healthy Wick, this RB combo is as good as any in the Mountain.
Still, Wyo, which scored a puny 19 ppg in 2015 (ranking 115h nationally), doesn’t go anywhere without an upgrade at QB, which has been an issue for Bohl ever since he arrived in Laramie. After former Indiana transfer Cameron Coffman took most of the snaps last season, Bohl and o.c. Brent Vigen enter the fall with their third different starting QB in as many years in soph Josh Allen, who looked good for a handful of plays against Eastern Michigan in week 2 before shattering his collarbone. Now healed, the former juco enters fall camp ahead of soph Nick Smith, forced into action in emergency mode last season.
Consistency, or lack thereof, at the QB spot has been an issue for the Bohl Wyo teams, and the pressure is on Allen to provide an upgrade, and to demonstrate that his big-league arm has some accuracy after reminding some of a right-handed Bobby Douglass. Fortunately he has at his disposal a pair of established wideouts, srs. Tanner Gentry and Jake Maulhardt, who combined for 94 catches and 12 TDs last fall even as Gentry missed the last five games due to injury.
The “D” would be hampered a year ago partly by a sluggish offense that provided little cushion, but also by an alarming lack of big-play ability. The Pokes only forced 10 turnovers in 2015, ranking tied for dead-last nationally in that category alongside defense-poor Rice. A total rebuild is in store for the DL that must replace all of its starters, including big-play DE Eddie Yarbrough, who will spend summer in the NFL Broncos camp after being ganged up upon by opposing offensive linemen a year ago. Even with Yarbrough, Wyo was pushed around up front last season and conceded a hefty 225 ypg on the ground, ranking a poor 113th nationally. Still undersized up front, the Cowboys need their LBs to play big, though there is experience in that group featuring ILB Lucas Wacha, the team’s leading returning tackler (96) from a year ago.
The strength of the platoon is likely in an experienced secondary that returns three starters including star FS, soph Andrew Wingard, an All-MW selection as a frosh. Four CBs who started last season return, while jr. Jalen Ortiz, a UCLA transfer, is expected to push for playing time at safety or as a nickel back.
Bohl will be excited about a September 10 non-conference date at alma mater Nebraska, though a better indicator of Wyo’s progress prior to MW play will probably be the September games vs. MAC foes Northern Illinois and Eastern Michigan. Mountain Division contenders Boise State, Air Force, and Utah State all visit Laramie, which might give the Cowboys a fighting chance, though Bohl will do well to steer the Cowboys into minor bowl contention. Wyo fans will probably be satisfied with adding a few more wins from last season, but their patience with Bohl, his NDSU success or not, will begin to wear thin if Wyo doesn’t get near .500 this fall.
Against the number, Bohl has had more success than his 6-18 SU mark; Wyo is 11-13 vs. the number since 2014, not great but not as bad as 6-18 straight-up. Bohl has yet to make Laramie much of an edge, as the Pokes' two-year spread mark as host is only 4-8. The Bohl trend to note has been a definite “under” slant, now 16-8 over the past two seasons.
July 12, 2016
West Division
Mountain West Conference - Mountain Division Preview
Last year's straight-up, against the spread, and over/under results are included for each team, presented in predicted order of finish...
The end of an era, perhaps? Fans at Boise State (2015 SU 9-4; ATS 6-7) were acting so after the Broncos surrendered the Mountain West crown last season and lost multiple times on their home blue carpet for the first time since 1998. The rabid support base was caught off-guard much as the “remain” crowd in the UK for the recent Brexit vote. How could it happen?
Some are suggesting the fall from the perch was inevitable after HC Chris Petersen left following the 2013 season for Washington, though we believe that is too simple of an explanation. Remember, Petersen’s last team finished an underwhelming 8-5, so it is not as if the ground has suddenly given way beneath the blue carpet for successor Bryan Harsin, whose two-year SU record at Boise is a solid 21-6.
If any Broncos fans are looking for positive bounce-back analogies, we remind them that the NHL Edmonton Oilers won their last Stanley Cup two years after the departure of Wayne Gretzky. (You’ve heard of him, right...Paulina’s dad.)
So, lots of regional observers are anticipating a quick recovery by the 2016 Broncos, whose flagship status means much to the Mountain West. Though Boise will be traveling only once outside its region (for an opener at UL-Lafayette on September 3), most onlookers in the Rockies believe the Broncos are still the league’s best chance to make an impression on the national scene.
Harsin, who earlier in his career had served as Petersen’s o.c., has not exactly been the captain of the Titanic. Last year’s Boise scored a whopping 39.1 ppg and gained over 500 ypg, hardly dropping off of the map. The Broncos also closed their season with a 55-7 dismantling of a representative Northern Illinois side in the Poinsettia Bowl, allowing the Huskies only 33 total yards in the process. So, if nothing else, Boise hit the offseason with a spring in its step.
Speaking of spring, the seasonal variety, it was adjustment time again as the Broncos worked in their fifth different offensive coordinator in six seasons after Eliah Drinkwitz took a similar post at NC State. (Mike Sanford left the previous year for Notre Dame.) For 2016, Zak Hill has been imported from Eastern Washington, where he oversaw a high-powered spread in recent years, to be joined by Scott Huff, promoted from OL coach, in a joint o.c. effort, though Harsin will put on his old play-calling hat and assume those duties. Meanwhile, former LB coach Andy Avalos has been promoted to defensive coordinator after Marcel Yates was lured away by Rich Rodriguez at Arizona.
Prospects are bullish for a strike force that returns eight starters including soph QB Brett Rypien, Mark’s nephew, who passed for 3353 yards and 20 TDs as a true frosh last fall. That was good enough to earn Rypien All-MW honors, though Harsin will want to make sure Rypien stays healthy with no experienced cover behind him. Still, the ride was not all smooth last fall for Rypien, who had a few erratic efforts that contributed to late-season losses vs. New Mexico and Air Force, and his arm seemed to tire as the season progressed, as the deep ball threat disappeared in November. Giving Rypien the benefit of the doubt, he was expected to redshirt last season before starter Ryan Finley broke an ankle in mid-September; Rypien’s first start came in the fourth game, September 25 at Virginia. If he can stay healthy, and with more experience avoids the "tired arm" syndrome, Rypien should be firing all of the way into a higher-profile bowl game this fall.
Experienced playmakers still dot the offense, with RB Jeremy McNichols worth 1317 yards rushing, 460 yards receiving, and 26 TDs a year ago to qualify as one of the nation’s top all-purpose threats. Senior wideout Thomas Sperbeck, the Fiesta Bowl MVP two years ago, was good for 88 receptions a year ago, while fellow WR Chaz Anderson (42 catches LY) and TE Jake Roh (33 receptions 2016) are other proven contributors. Frosh likely provide skill-position depth (watch WR Bubby Ogbehor out of Frisco, TX), while four starters are back along the OL. Last year’s PK (Tyler Rausa, who was 25-30 on FG tries LY) and P (Sean Wale) both return.
New d.c. Avalos has a bit more work to do with a stop unit that lost seven starters and, despite ranking 12th nationally, was overrun by a couple of Mountain Division option teams (New Mexico and Air Force) that both won on the blue carpet last November. The line is the area of utmost concern with all new starters up front and little experience in the fold aside from sr. DT Sam McCaskill, one of last year’s rotation pieces. Newcomers will need to play important roles. The strength of the platoon is likely at the LB spots where 2015 leading tackler Ben Warren and third-leading tackler Tanner Vallejo return as starters. Three seniors are slated to start in the secondary, including CB Jonathan Maxey & S Chanceller James, but young talent needs to provide depth.
Already, there is a buzz in Boise about the September 10 visit of Mike Leach’s Washington State and potential Heisman candidate QB Luke Falk, but if the Broncos survive that test they likely enter conference play in the national rankings. Boise has a score to settle vs. three Mountain foes (New Mexico, Air Force, and Utah State, on the road to face the Lobos and Falcons, the latter having beaten Harsin the past two seasons) that won vs. the Broncos a year ago, and worth noting that Boise misses heavy West favorite San Diego State. At least until a possible showdown in the conference title game, which, in a perfect world for the MW, would see the winner qualify for a spot in a New Year’s Six bowl, as the Broncos achieved in 2014 when invited to the Fiesta (and beating Arizona).
Spread-wise, it has been a while since Boise was dominant on the blue carpet. Ongoing heavy pointspread premiums resulted in only a 2-4 performance vs. the line at home last season (one of those W vs. Big Sky Idaho State) and an 11-21 mark dating to late 2010 and the final stages of the Petersen era. The Broncos, however, continue to excel as road chalk, now 31-14 in that role since 2008 (4-2 a year ago).
The last reconstruction job as successful as the one undertaken by HC Bob Davie at New Mexico (2015 SU 7-6; ATS 7-6)? Perhaps it was Ulysses S. Grant trying to mend the Union after the Civil War. In football terms, Davie has done a near-comparable job in Albuquerque after inheriting a carcass of a program from the failed Mike Locksley regime in 2012.
To refresh memories, Locksley was the ill-fated hire made by New Mexico after forcing out alum and longtime HC Rocky Long following the 2008 season. Locksley proceeded to author the definitive deconstruct of a program that would win a mere one game each of the next three seasons, the latter in 2011 with interim CH George Barlow in charge for the lone W (vs. UNLV, by the way) following Locksley’s ouster early in the campaign. Enter Davie, the former Notre Dame mentor who left a cushy gig at ESPN and a pleasant home in Scottsdale to take his first sideline job in over a decade. So desperate was his coaching itch that he took on the challenge of resurrecting maybe the worst program in the country upon his hiring.
That was four years ago, and Davie began to mix and match with a threadbare roster of only 51 remaining players on scholarship, almost none from the first Locksley recruiting class three years earlier. Off of the bat, Davie schemed effectively, leaning upon a handful of holdover fifth-year seniors originally recruited by Long for leadership, and reckoning the an option-based run offense out of the Pistol was his best chance to slow down the games and run the clock and keep his undermanned defense off of the field. The Lobos didn’t win consistently right away, but they weren’t Locksley-bad, either, as the program slowly began to take on the look of a real college football entry.
Which brings us to last year, and what would be the cherry on top of the cake for Davie’s efforts, a surprise 7-5 regular-season record and qualification for the hometown New Mexico Bowl against Arizona. Never mind that the Lobos lost that one in a wild 45-37 shootout; Davie’s accomplishment at getting New Mexico to the postseason rates as one of the top coaching jobs we recall in the past decade. The Lobos were even good enough to notch one of the biggest pointspread upsets in modern history when winning win at Boise State as a 30 1/2-point underdog in mid-November. To prove that was no fluke, New Mexico would end its regular season with a decisive home win over Mountain Division champion Air Force.
With expectations now enhanced in Lobo-land for the first time in almost a decade, Davie seems well-positioned for an encore and another bowl bid. We’ll see how New Mexico embraces the new target on its back after flying under the radar to this point in the Davie era.
Not willing to rest on his laurels, Davie has been altering the recipe a bit lately, especially with an offense that might have lost its element of surprise out of the Pistol. Though the Lobos still ranked a very respectable 9th nationally in rushing, their 252 ypg last fall was more than 50 yards beneath the lowest total in Davie’s first three seasons. Davie has since juggled assignments for most of his offensive staff, though Bob DeBessie (now tutoring the WRs instead of QBs) retains the coordinator role.
The slow changes began last season when the Lobos would demonstrate a bit more balance by attempting more than 50 passes above any previous Davie UNM entry. Part of that was to do with the presence of former juco and one-time Washington State QB Austin Apodaca, the designated “passer” threat of a two-man platoon alongside Lamar Jordan, who took more snaps and actually passed for more yards. Though Jordan remains the “run” QB after rushing for 807 yards a year ago. Both return to what would appear to be a similar arrangement for the fall, with Apodaca likely utilized again as an effective change-of-pace option.
The main question for the offense likely involves breaking in three new starters along the OL. Teriyon Gipson remains a coast-to-coast threat at RB, and Davie has had no shortage of quick-hitting backs in recent years. The top two receivers, led by sr. WR Dameon Gamblin (35 catches LY), also return. As does one-time QB Cole Gautsche, hampered by injuries throughout his career but a mega-athlete and now a 260-lb. moose ready for work at TE after getting healthy in a redshirt season a year ago. Davie will also be looking for a new kick-return threat after the graduated Carlos Wiggins brought five back for scores in his career.
While the Lobo offensive numbers in 2015 still bore a resemblance to previous Davie editions, it was upgrades along the “D” that allowed New Mexico to go “bowling” for the first time since 2007.The improvements need to be viewed in context; the Lobos were still susceptible to dramatic collapses, as evident in the bowl loss to Arizona. But those came less frequently than previous years when the Lobos routinely ranked in triple-digits in all relevant stat categories. Last year, it was merely high double-digits all of the way, and the 28.4 ppg allowed was by far the best of any UNM defense back to the Rocky Long era. The Lobos allowed 81 ypg fewer than in 2014 and had 15 more takeaways than in 2013, the year before d.c Kevin Cosgrove arrived. UNM also recorded 30 sacks a year ago, another Davie-era best, and excelled in the red zone last season, allowing only 34 scores in 49 opponent forays, which ranked 4th-best in the nation.
The good news is that nine starters return from 2015, including star MLB Dakota Cox, the heart-and-soul of the platoon and one of the MW’s best who led the Lobos with 97 tackles a year ago. In fact, the entire starting front six in UNM’s 3-3-5 returns, including most of the rotation pieces along a DL anchored by sr. DE Nik D’Avanzo. Cox, with fellow srs. Kimmie Carson and Donnie White, might make up the top LB corps in the MW. There are some depth concerns in the secondary, partly due to the tragic death of S Markel Byrd in a car accident just a few days after the bowl loss to Arizona, though FS Daniel Henry and nickel back Lee Crosby, the most productive players on the back end, return for their senior seasons. As indeed are ten of the eleven projected starters, making the Lobo “D” one of the most experienced in the nation.
The schedule is favorable, with an odd trip to rebuilding Rutgers probably the toughest non-conference challenge. The game vs. Mountain Division foe Air Force has been moved from Colorado Springs to the Cotton Bowl in Dallas, and Boise State (against which Davie's teams are 4-0 vs. the line) visits University Stadium on October 8. Absent from the slate is heavy West favorite San Diego State.
Spread-wise, notable in recent years has been Davie’s success vs. the line on the road, where the Lobos are 11-5 vs. the spread their last 16 tries. Within the Mountain Division, Davie’s team has covered four straight not only vs. Boise State, but Air Force as well, though it has dropped four straight vs. Colorado State.
Two years ago, we weren’t sure how much longer we would be talking about HC Troy Calhoun at Air Force (2015 SU 8-6; ATS 8-5). The Falcs had been losing altitude for a while and were off of a brutal 2-10 collapse in 2013 that was the program’s worst-ever mark, which included some very lean years in the 1970s. Moreover, long-serving AD Hans Mueh, the man who hired the former fly-boy Calhoun to replace his mentor, Fisher DeBerry, for the 2007 season, was ready to retire from his post. The gears seemed to be in motion for a change unless Calhoun could get things turned around and quickly.
Fast-forward two years and Calhoun is back again on firm footing after 18 wins, a pair of bowl appearances, and a Mountain Division crown, causing Gregg Popovich and other alums to chuckle and wonder what all the fuss was about in the first place. Calhoun has now qualified for the postseason in seven of eight campaigns at the Force, something even the legendary DeBerry, now in the Atlanta College Football HOF, could not accomplish with the Falcs (DeBerry never went to more than six bowls during any of his eight-year spans).
In retrospect, 2013 was the aberration, a season wrecked by a cascade of injuries that especially decimated the QB position.With a bit better injury luck, Air Force has returned to its normal perch in the MW under Calhoun in the two seasons since.
(We’re glad Calhoun is still in the fold, if for no other reason than being annually amused by the Air Force coach at the summer Mountain West Media Days, where Calhoun’s peculiar demeanor and manner more resembles that of a CIA spook than the usual coaching stereotypes.)
As Air Force’s option-based offense has routinely reloaded over the years, there is not much worry at the Academy at the thought of the strike force replacing seven starters, including almost the entirety of last year’s starting OL, for this fall. There is near-giddiness, however, at the thought of nine starters back and experience all across the field for a defense that was one of the best in the Calhoun era and ranked in the top quartile nationally of several key stat categories.
The key a year ago for d.c. Steve Russ was the ability to bring pressure from all angles in the hopes of disrupting opposing QBs who would be less likely to exploit the Falcs’ athletic mismatches on the edge. The Force’s 37 sacks confirmed the Russ tactics and would rank a very respectable 23rd in the nation and key the ascent to the Mountain half crown.
Even with all of the returnees, there is some concern about filling the role of graduated Alex Hansen, a pass-rush beast considered by Calhoun as the best DE he has ever coached. (That sort of praise is so out of character for the normally-calculating Calhoun that we have to believe him.) But still in the fold is perhaps the best defensive playmaker in the MW, all-name SS Weston Steelhammer, a rare combo of aggressiveness against the run coupled with ball-hawk tendencies, partly explaining his 11 career interceptions. Steelhammer’s value to the Force “D” was never underlined more than after his ejection in the Armed Forces Bowl vs. Cal, when the Falc stop unit unraveled afterward. An all-senior 2ndary also features CB Roland Ladipo, an All-MW selection a year ago.
Last year, the offense would continue to post its usual top ten rushing stats (in 2015 it was 319 ypg, good for fourth nationally), though it had to revert to a more pure version of its option roots after QB Nate Romine, the rare Force QB who passes better than he runs, was lost to a knee injury in the second week vs. San Jose State. Senior relief pitcher Karson Roberts was well-versed in the nuances of the option but could not stretch a field with his arm as Romine, who returns for his senior season with perhaps the best Falc receiving threat since the long-ago days of Ernie Jennings, Jalen Robinette, a unique big-play target. Even with the limited Roberts at the controls, Robinette caught 26 passes for a staggering 24.7 yards per reception with 5 TDs in 2015 and should significantly improve upon those numbers if QB Romine can stay healthy this fall.
As usual, Calhoun’s offense will feature a deep collection of runners. As Robinette is a playmaker for the passing game, slashing TB Jacobi Owens (1092 YR in 2016) is for the infantry, gaining serious yards last season even after he was temporarily switched to the FB spot due to injuries. Junior Timothy McVey offers relief for Owens and perhaps a greater homerun threat after gaining a whopping 8.5 ypc last fall. Though injured for parts of last season, fullbacks Shayne Davern and D.J. Johnson are brutishly effective, as Air Force option protocols demand, when healthy. Junior PK Luke Strebel missed only 1 of his 11 FG tries a year ago.
As in every season, there are dual goals for the Force, winning the Commander-in-Chief Trophy as well as the Mountain West. The Falcs, who won the former as recently as 2014, get nemesis Navy at home on October 1 as the highlight of non-conference action. There is also no San Diego State from the West on the 2016 slate and no distractions of a trip to Hawaii (the Rainbow Warriors instead visit Falcon Stadium on October 22), though the Falcs rather enjoyed their time in paradise last Halloween when blasting UH, 58-7, given an escort out of Aloha Stadium by Hawaii Five-O. The Mountain title could come down to the regular-season finale at home on Thanksgiving weekend vs. Boise State, which has been outplayed and beaten by Calhoun each of the last two years.
Spread-wise, Calhoun has also rehabilitated the past two seasons after the downturns of 2012 & ‘13, when the Falcs were a combined 6-19 vs. the line; Air Force is 16-10-1 against the number since. Moreover, the Force has once again turned Falcon Stadium into a fortress, standing 9-2-1 vs. the line as host the past two seasons after slumping at Colorado Springs in previous years. Interestingly, the Falcs have been “over” 20-7 the past two years.
It has been an interesting few seasons for Utah State (2015 SU 6-7; ATS 5-8). The Utags have not only switched leagues (WAC to Mountain West in 2013) but have also qualified for five straight bowls, which would have seemed a pipe dream in Logan not long ago, especially before HC Gary Andersen arrived in 2009 from a successful stint as d.c. at Utah. Andersen would thus revive the program before leaving for Wisconsin and turning over the reins to his o.c. Matt Wells, who has continued the uptick with three straight bowl visits.
(Andersen, however, continues to be indirectly impacting the program. Sources inform us that when Oregon State called Andersen, still at Wisconsin, after the 2014 season, and looking for a recommendation on Wells to become the new coach in Corvallis, Andersen would instead offer himself as an alternative to succeed Mike Riley, who had moved to Nebraska. Presto, Andersen was OSU’s new coach and Wells stayed at USU. But the Andersen/Beaver connection to Logan remains, as this fall’s projected OSU starting QB Darell Garretson is a transfer from...you guessed it, Utah State. Not to mention new OSU d.c. Kevin Clune, hired from...yep, Utah State.)
There are some signs, however, that the Utags might be slipping just a bit, as a late-season fade in 2015, including a bitter Idaho Potato Bowl loss to Akron, would drop the team to 6-7 and the first losing campaign since 2010. All of this after a midseason 52-26 rout of Boise State in Logan seemed to stamp the Utags as the team to beat in the Mountain half of the loop. Then, in the offseason, both coordinators, the aforementioned d.c. Kevin Clune (to Oregon State) and o.c. Josh Heupel (to Missouri...not Oregon State!) both moved. Thus, both the “O” and “D” will be looking at their third (and fourth, technically, with co-d.c.’s lined up) coordinators, respectively, in as many seasons this fall. Another familiar face, that of longtime and injury-susceptible QB Chuckie Keeton, has also left the Logan scene after his eligibility, which seemed to date to the Merlin Olsen era, was finally exhausted.
The Wells offense, which sagged to a 93rd national ranking a year ago, is now under the shared tutelage of co-coordinators Jevon Bouknight, promoted from passing game coordinator, and Luke Wells, who has been on the USU staff since brother Matt was promoted in 2013. The braintrust began to implement their new ideas in spring when emphasis was mostly centered upon establishing the run. “I want a 1000-yard back,” said HC Wells. “I want to be able to say we are a run-first football team.” Well, if the head coach insists, that’s what we suppose the Utags will get this fall.
Spring work showcased plenty of RB options, though for the time being it would appear as if powerful 220-lb. Devante Mays, a bit reminiscent of recent USU star RB Robert Turbin, is Wells’ likely 1000-yard man after nearly reaching that plateau last fall when gaining 966 YR. Along with jr. RB LaJuan Hunt, and returnee QB Kent Myers, the trio would combine for 1660 YR a year ago, numbers that figure to increase this fall.
The elusive jr. Myers, who took most of the snaps last season as Keeton was again sidelined with injuries, is a playmaker who has passed for 21 TDs (vs. just 6 picks) and nearly 2500 yards the past two seasons while filling in for Keeton or splitting snaps with now-departed Garretson in 2014. Myers and his arm were good enough to throw for 364 yards and 4 TDs vs. Air Force last November, so we wonder if the coaches should perhaps turn Myers loose rather than worry so much about establishing the run. The Utags must replace departed top receiver Hunter Sharp, who caught 71 passes last season, but sr. TE Wyatt Houston (28 catches in 2015) is one of the best in the MW, and plenty of candidates are in the queue at WR, including ex-RB Kennedy Williams and one of the stars of srping, RS frosh Gerold Bright. Four starters also return on the OL.
There are more concerns on a defense that only returns three starters from a Bizarro, “break-but-don’t-bend” stop unit in 2015 that ranked among the nation’s leaders in yards per play (only 4.9) but in the depths of red zone efficiency. Moreover, the hearts-and-souls of last year’s platoon were taken in the third round of the NFL Draft–LBs Nick Vigil (Bengals) and Kyle Fackrell (Packers) with back-to-back selections. Only one starter returns in the front seven, DE Ricky Ali’fua, while NG Travis Seefeldt returns to the mix after sitting out last season following traffic accident injuries. Only three of the 10 LBs who took snaps a year ago are back in the fold.
The most experienced position group on the defense is in the secondary, which returns starters at a corner (jr. Jalen Davis) and SS (sr. Devin Centers). Transfer Dallin Leavitt was a two-year starter at BYU and was running first-string at FS exiting spring. New co-coordinators Frank Maile and Kendrick Shaver are familiar with the Logan operation, each on staff in recent years and promoted in tandem to replace Clune.
We should know within the first month of the season if Wells has a contender on his hands, with the first two league games vs. Mountain rivals Air Force and revenge-minded Boise State (this time on the blue carpet). Non-league games at USC and BYU, plus questions on defense, may limit the upside to a minor bowl at best for Wells’ team. To do any better might require Wells turning QB Myers loose, but from the sound of things after spring work, we’re not holding our breath for that to happen.
Spread-wise, the Utags had been a dynamite underdog performer for several years prior to the ascent of Wells, recording a 19-5 spread mark in that role for Anderson before sagging to 5-8 as a “the short” the past three seasons. The Wells Utags have also been a decidedly “over” performer (27-13 the past three seasons).
We wonder what Mike Bobo was thinking after alma mater Georgia was looking for a coach following last season. Of course, Bobo had moved from o.c. on Mark Richt’s staff to the HC spot at Colorado State (2015 SU 7-6; ATS 6-6-1) prior to the 2015 campaign. Many in SEC country believed Bobo was likely to take a head coaching job, such as CSU, ostensibly to cut his teeth as the top dog, before returning to the SEC, maybe at his beloved Georgia.
Well, Bobo still might get back to the SEC, but probably not at Georgia for a while after the Bulldogs hired Alabama d.c. Kirby Smart instead. Bobo, who would have been an unlikely immediate successor to Richt had he stayed in Athens last season, thus has a bit more time to establish his credentials before perhaps returning home, maybe in the near future if Smart succeeds Nick Saban at Alabama. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves.
The homespun Bobo has some work to do with his own portfolio after proving a bit of an awkward fit in the Mountain West, and not just because there are no Waffle Houses or real Southern style BBQ anywhere near Fort Collins. Bobo effectively junked the Jim McElwain spread offense that produced big numbers and made QB Garrett Grayson an NFL draftee (Saints) before “Coach Mac” took the job at Florida. Bobo would instead introduce an older-style SEC offense to the Mountain West, complete with a traditional fullback (!) that has been an endangered species in the MW for years. The new look certainly did not serve to highlight star WR Rashard Higgins as did the McElwain offense; Higgins’ stats were considerably down from 2014 (receiving yards from 1750 to 1062; TDs from 17 to 6), as was his NFL Draft stock, sinking to the 5th round (Browns) after projecting as a possible 2nd-or-3rd-round pick prior.
The drop from 2014 that most alarmed Rams fans, however, was from 10 wins under McElwain to just seven a year ago. After a brief uptick when winning four straight to close the regular season and get bowl-eligible for a third straight year, the season would end up with a very unsatisfactory feel, too, after losing an All-MW Arizona Bowl vs. Nevada in front of a sparse gathering in Tucson.
We wouldn’t expect things to look appreciably different this fall with four starters back on the OL, plus a seasoned QB and a two-deep RB attack. The QB is jr. Nick Stevens, who flashed some nice upside in his starting debut, even if his stats paled in comparison to predecessor Grayson; Stevens would throw for 2679 yards and 21 TDs, though his pick total (12) was a bit high, part of an overall giveaway problem reflected in CSU’s poor -12 TO margin, ranking 117th nationally.
To keep Stevens on his toes, Bobo has imported Faton Bauta, a graduate transfer from Georgia who knows the Bobo offense from Athens, even though he took only a handful of snaps with the Bulldogs. True frosh Collin Hill is a recruit from South Carolina who would enroll early to participate in spring practice but is a likely redshirt candidate in the fall.
The Rams played within themselves last season as they strove to balance the offense, taking more than a bit away from the old McElwain passing game while putting more emphasis in the infantry. With the returnees along the OL and top RBs Dalyn Dawkins (former Purdue transfer; 867 YR LY) and soph Izzy Matthews (6.1 ypc in 2015), expect CSU to try to pick up where it left off December. Maybe even with more emphasis on the run, as star WR Higgins has moved to the NFL, RB Dawkins the leading returning receiver (24 catches LY) on the roster, and little experience among the returning wideouts and at TE. If the offense bogs down, Ray Guy Award finalist P Hayden Hunt can usually kick the team out of trouble.
What scares the locals in Fort Collins is that the offense might have to pick up the pace to compensate for a defense in semi-rebuild mode. Coordinator Tyson Summers left to become HC at Georgia Southern, with former LB Coach Marty English inheriting the d.c. duties, which he held as a co-coordinator during the McElwain years. In the process, English will re-install the 3-4 alignments he utilized under McElwain.
Five starters return, though none are on a DL that was a bit permissive vs. the run in 2015, ranking a lowly 107th against the rush. The strength of the platoon is likely at LB, where top tacklers srs. Kevin Davis (101 tackles LY) and Deonte Clyburn (74 tackles in 2015) return to anchor. Two starters return in the secondary but there was news in this area during spring, when former WR Jordan Vaden was moved to CB and exited drills as a starter, while several juco imports, inclduing CBs A’Keitheon Whitner and FS Houston Haynes, made positive impressions. Touted JC transfer CB Devron Davis arrives for fall camp.
As usual, the tenor of the early part of the season is going to be set by the game vs. rival Colorado, this September taking place opening week (a Friday night special at that) in Denver. Trips to Big Ten Minnesota, and Mountain West meatgrinders at Boise, Air Force, and San Diego State loom as hurdles. Several winnable games, however, appear to be on tap in the testimonial season of venerable Hughes Stadium, nestled in the foothills of the Rockies and a few miles from campus. Expect emotion to be heavy for the home finale vs. New Mexico on November 19. We’re guessing CSU moves into its new on-campus stadium next year off of another minor bowl appearance, with 6-6 sounding about right.
Spread-wise, after CSU entered Bobo’s debut season having covered 21 of its last 30 against the number, the Rams were a non-descript 6-6-1 vs. the line a year ago. CSU continued to fare well at Hughes Stadium, covering 4 of 5, and now 14-5 vs. the spread its last 19 as host dating to late 2012.
Well, there’s a couple of ways we can look at what HC Craig Bohl left behind at North Dakota State, where he won three straight national titles before taking the job two years ago at Wyoming (2015 SU 2-10; ATS 6-6). All the Bison have done since is continue to win FCS-level championships as they had done for Bohl. Plus, QB Carson Wentz would be the second player taken in April’s NFL Draft when tabbed by the Eagles.
So, did Bohl create such a machine at NDSU that it could continue to win after he left? Or did Bohl just have such a talent edge that he couldn't help but win at the Missouri Valley and FCS levels...something he has yet to do in Laramie.
Though the jury remains out on Bohl with Wyo, most MW insiders are giving him the benefit of the doubt and expecting the Cowboys to start a slow climb back to respectability this fall. After all, Bohl did not inherit a powerhouse from predecessor Dave Christensen. Then again, the Christensen Cowboys were never threatening a winless season as Wyo was a year ago, dropping their first six before finally getting in the W column with a close win over Nevada. The Pokes’ 2-10 SU mark would be the worst at the school since 2002, a performance that forced HC Vic Koenning, who was just 5-29 in three seasons, to walk the plank.
Some MW observers nonetheless believe a breakthrough for Dick Cheney’s alma mater is imminent, citing the return of nine starters to an offense that unfortunately ranked in triple digits nationally in most meaningful categories.There is hope, however, that a full plate of returning starters on the OL and beast-mode jr. RB Brian Hill can lead a resurgence.
Hill, with his punishing Marshawn Lynch-like style and long hair, is now a 220-lb. smash machine who runs with the reckless abandon of Lynch and gained a whopping 1631 YR as the main highlight for Wyo in 2015. That set a Cowboy single-season record and has already made Hill the fifth-leading rusher in school history. Hill carried more of the load last fall because of the early season-ending concussion suffered by backfield mate Shaun Wick, himself the Cowboys’ ninth-leading all-time rusher (2179 YR). Though Hill’s numbers might reduce some with a healthy Wick, this RB combo is as good as any in the Mountain.
Still, Wyo, which scored a puny 19 ppg in 2015 (ranking 115h nationally), doesn’t go anywhere without an upgrade at QB, which has been an issue for Bohl ever since he arrived in Laramie. After former Indiana transfer Cameron Coffman took most of the snaps last season, Bohl and o.c. Brent Vigen enter the fall with their third different starting QB in as many years in soph Josh Allen, who looked good for a handful of plays against Eastern Michigan in week 2 before shattering his collarbone. Now healed, the former juco enters fall camp ahead of soph Nick Smith, forced into action in emergency mode last season.
Consistency, or lack thereof, at the QB spot has been an issue for the Bohl Wyo teams, and the pressure is on Allen to provide an upgrade, and to demonstrate that his big-league arm has some accuracy after reminding some of a right-handed Bobby Douglass. Fortunately he has at his disposal a pair of established wideouts, srs. Tanner Gentry and Jake Maulhardt, who combined for 94 catches and 12 TDs last fall even as Gentry missed the last five games due to injury.
The “D” would be hampered a year ago partly by a sluggish offense that provided little cushion, but also by an alarming lack of big-play ability. The Pokes only forced 10 turnovers in 2015, ranking tied for dead-last nationally in that category alongside defense-poor Rice. A total rebuild is in store for the DL that must replace all of its starters, including big-play DE Eddie Yarbrough, who will spend summer in the NFL Broncos camp after being ganged up upon by opposing offensive linemen a year ago. Even with Yarbrough, Wyo was pushed around up front last season and conceded a hefty 225 ypg on the ground, ranking a poor 113th nationally. Still undersized up front, the Cowboys need their LBs to play big, though there is experience in that group featuring ILB Lucas Wacha, the team’s leading returning tackler (96) from a year ago.
The strength of the platoon is likely in an experienced secondary that returns three starters including star FS, soph Andrew Wingard, an All-MW selection as a frosh. Four CBs who started last season return, while jr. Jalen Ortiz, a UCLA transfer, is expected to push for playing time at safety or as a nickel back.
Bohl will be excited about a September 10 non-conference date at alma mater Nebraska, though a better indicator of Wyo’s progress prior to MW play will probably be the September games vs. MAC foes Northern Illinois and Eastern Michigan. Mountain Division contenders Boise State, Air Force, and Utah State all visit Laramie, which might give the Cowboys a fighting chance, though Bohl will do well to steer the Cowboys into minor bowl contention. Wyo fans will probably be satisfied with adding a few more wins from last season, but their patience with Bohl, his NDSU success or not, will begin to wear thin if Wyo doesn’t get near .500 this fall.
Against the number, Bohl has had more success than his 6-18 SU mark; Wyo is 11-13 vs. the number since 2014, not great but not as bad as 6-18 straight-up. Bohl has yet to make Laramie much of an edge, as the Pokes' two-year spread mark as host is only 4-8. The Bohl trend to note has been a definite “under” slant, now 16-8 over the past two seasons.
MWC Outlook - West
July 12, 2016
Mountain West Conference - West Division Preview
Last year's straight-up, against the spread, and over/under results are included for each team, presented in predicted order of finish...
By the end of last season, the only thing grating about San Diego State (2015 SU 11-3; ATS 8-5-1) was longtime play-by-play man Ted Leitner. Ten straight wins to close the season would make it easy to ignore the infuriating Leitner as the Aztecs began to fly in some rarified air, tying one of the legendary Don Coryell’s best SDSU teams (with QB Dennis Shaw in 1969) for the school’s all-time win mark at 11. Along the way the Aztecs rolled to the Mountain West crown and restored some dignity to the league when blasting American rep Cincinnati in the Hawaii Bowl.
All of that seemed a bit far-fetched in late September when SDSU was laboring at 1-3 and counted a home loss against Sun Belt South Alabama on the debit side of the ledger. Even as the subsequent win streak advanced, and the Aztecs dominated the MW by winning all of their regular-season conference games by 14 or more, they bore little resemblance to the pass-happy template that Coryell’s teams created once upon a time on Montezuma Mesa. (Indeed, it’s been a while since SDSU’s passing game resembled a well-oiled machine.) Yet Kentucky transfer QB Maxwell Smith proved an effective game manager and kept mistakes to a minimum as the offense would pivot around slashing RB Donnel Pumphrey, who would run away with MW MVP honors while rushing for 1653 yards. Meanwhile, the stop unit eventually got the hang of HC (and d.c.) Rocky Long’s noted schemes out of 3-3-5 alignments and would finish in the top ten nationally in all relevant (rushing, passing, scoring, and overall) categories. Among other noteworthy stat accomplishments by the 2015 Aztecs was a staggering +22 TO margin that ranked best in the land.
The pieces are in place to dominate the MW again, partly because of the return of star RB Pumphrey, who resisted the temptation to jump early into last April’s NFL Draft. Still on campus, the whippet-like, 180-lb. sr. from Las Vegas with 4272 career YR is now within sight of Marshall Faulk’s all-time school rushing mark of 4589 YRs (set, it should be noted, in just three seasons between 1991-93). Moreover, Pumphrey led SDSU with 28 pass receptions a year ago. He’s the closest thing to a one man gang this side of the WWE, though RS frosh Juwan Washington is a 5'7 jitterbug who could give Pumphrey an occasional blow after impressing in the spring game, when he scored on a 48-yard run.
Pumphrey’s presence is important, because there are still questions about the new QB, soph Christian Chapman, who got his feet wet late last season when taking over for injured Maxwell Smith and leading the last three SDSU wins, including the MW title game vs. Air Force and the bowl win in Honolulu vs. the Bearcats. Yet Chapman’s ability to throw downfield remains a bit of an unknown, and the strike force is again likely to revolve around the mercurial Pumphrey. More will be expected of WR Micah Holder, the leading returning wideout who caught 24 passes a year ago.
More substantive concerns for o.c. Jeff Horton are on the right side of the OL, with new starters to break in at the guard and tackle spots. But three other starters, including honors candidate LG Nico Siragusa, return along a forward wall which paved the way for a school-record 3266 YR last fall. The Aztecs also have a return threat of note in Rashaad Penny, who gained a whopping 33.5 yards on his KRs and took 3 of those back for TDs.
SDSU can probably deal with a few bumps on the offensive side because the “D” looks once again to be head-and-shoulders above all others in the MW. Good news came last January when CB Damontae Kazee, the MW Defensive MVP, like Pumphrey also decided to wait on the NFL Draft so he could return for his senior season, where he will again will lock down the opponents’ best receiver and be the leader of one of the region’s top secondaries that also featured big-play jr. FS Malik Smith, who recorded 77 tackles and 5 picks of his own last season. Fellow DB Na’im McGee, playing the same “Aztec” role in the Rocky Long defense as did Brian Urlacher once upon a time for Long at New Mexico (when the position was appropriately called “Lobo”), was the team’s second leading tackler with 81 a year ago.
There are a few holes to fill up front defensively, but returnee DEs Kyle Kelley and Alex Barrett combined for 13 sacks last season, and LB Calvin Munson was a playmaker, recording a team-best 98 tackles that included 15 stops for loss and 9.5 sacks. No MW team scored more than 17 points vs. this platoon until Air Force tallied 24 in the MW title game.
The non-league schedule appears less treacherous than a year ago, especially since the highest-profile foe, Cal, visits Qualcomm Stadium in rebuild mode after QB Jared Goff was the first pick by the Rams in the NFL Draft. Challenges in the Mountain West do not include Boise State or Air Force, both off of the schedule until perhaps the conference title game. Which is where the Aztecs likely wind up again in December, where, if all goes well, SDSU could enter as a ranked team. Which would make another season of Ted Leitner at the microphone at least tolerable for Aztec backers.
Spread-wise, we’re not sure SDSU gets many chances in an underdog role that has proved profitable for Long’s Aztec teams (now 8-3-1 last 12 getting points). But SDSU has certainly been a go-with vs. MW foes, undefeated vs. the line in the last 11 regular-season league games. Consistent with the defensive theme, Rocky’s guys are also 20-7 “under” the past two seasons.
The “Pistol” formation has been about as familiar in Washoe County as the annual Reno air races in August or the legendary BBQ cook-off each September at John Ascuaga’s Nugget in Sparks. Since introduced by HOF HC Chris Ault in 2005, the Pistol has been the primary offensive formation for the Nevada Wolf Pack (2015 SU 7-6; ATS 8-4-1) and helped QB Colin Kaepernick make a name for himself in college before moving to the NFL 49ers.
The Pistol has remained in place at Mackay Stadium since Ault retired following the 2012 season, as successor Brian Polian was not about to change a good thing. But with o.c. Nick Rolovich, a holdover from the Ault years, having moved in the offseason to alma mater Hawaii to become its head coach, Polian is making some significant adjustments to the Nevada “O” for the first time since early in George W. Bush’s second term in the White House. Though the Pistol will not go away completely, Polian did not hire new o.c. Tim Cramsey from Montana State to abandon the high-power spread that Cramsey’s Bobcat offenses employed recently in Bozeman.
Cramsey, a Chip Kelly disciple, has been enlisted by Polian to add more pop to a passing game that regressed to a sickly 113th national ranking a season ago. The Pistol principles that produced a pair of 1000-yard rushers last season will not be abandoned, but Cramsey’s task is rather straight-forward, as instructed by HC Polian...put some dynamism back into the passing game.
To that end, Cramsey and Polian opened up QB competition in the spring despite the presence of returning starter Tyler Stewart, who led the Pack to a win in the All-MW Arizona Bowl vs. Colorado State last December. Juco transfer Ty Gangi and last year’s backup, soph Hunter Fralick, were given looks, though by the end of spring it was Stewart still in the pilot seat after looking increasingly comfortable in Cramsey’s offense as spring progressed.
Nine starters are back on offense, and that doesn’t even include jr. RB James Butler, who gained 1345 YR a year ago in a relief role (only one start). Penn State grad transfer Akeel Lynch should give Polian & Cramsey another potent 1-2 RB punch. All five starters return on an all-upperclass OL that had some problems in protecting Stewart a year ago but in spring was getting the hang of Cramsey's offense and the upgraded pass-blocking techniques.
For the "O" to hum, however, it will be up to sr. QB Stewart to take another step forward after producing only serviceable stats (2139 YP & 15 TDs) a year ago. A good athlete, Stewart also affords Cramsey some added options in the spread and Pistol. Plaxico Burress-sized Hassan Henderson and electron Jerrico Richardson combined for 120 catches and 9 TDs. They’re two of seven projected seniors to start on offense. Another sr. is PK Brent Zuzo, a nice safety blanket should drives bog down after hitting all 17 of his FG tries inside of 50 yards a year ago.
We usually spend more time talking about Nevada’s offense because, well, there’s more to talk about. But the Pack probably wouldn’t have qualified for a bowl last season if not for stop unit upgrades that continued under d.c. Scott Boone, who arrived from William & Mary in 2014 and has authored improvements each of the last two seasons after the “D” leaked badly (34.4 ppg) in Polian’s first season of 2013.
Boone, though, has a chore this fall with an almost completely-rebuilt front seven that must replace, among others, all-MW DEs Ian Seau and Lenny Jones. Several recent backups who were part of well-regarded recruiting hauls will be expected to contribute right away alongside the only returning starter up front, sr. NT Salesa Faraimo, while RS frosh DT Huasia Sekona was one of the headliners in spring. The LB corps is completely rebuilt, where returnees have combined for all of three starts and RS frosh Gabe Sewell is expected to handle MLB duties.
Fortunately for Boone, the secondary returns all four starters, with soph safeties Asauni Rufus and Dameon Baber already regarded as two of the best in the MW, and sr. Elijah Mitchell rated as one of the top shutdown corners in the league.
The schedule intrigues, as the Pack gets a do-over for one of the great missed opportunities in school history when Ault’s 2009 team, with Kaepernick, was blanked at Notre Dame in the opener. This year, Nevada gets Cal Poly to hopefully work out some of the kinks in the new Cramsey offense before a return to South Bend, though a more realistic chance for a marquee non-league win might come two weeks later at Purdue. The Pack gets a break in the MW as it misses Boise State, Air Force, and Colorado State from the Mountain half, while getting West favorite San Diego State, plus Utah State, in Reno. Nevada, which since Ault installed the Pistol in 2005 has missed a bowl only in Polian’s debut campaign of 2013, should get back to one of those MW postseason dates in Albuquerque, Boise, or Tucson again this season.
Spread-wise, note that Polian’s Nevada has become ornery on the road, standing 9-2-1 vs. the line as a visitor the past two seasons. The Pack also enters this fall “under” 11-5 in its last 16 games on the board.
If you’re looking for an example of bowl bloat, meet San Jose State (2015 SU 6-7; ATS 8-5), which made it to the postseason with a 5-7 record last fall only because there were not enough 6-6 teams to fill all of the available slots, and the Spartans had a good enough team APR score to qualify. But the Orlando Cure Bowl was glad to have San Jose face 6-6 Georgia State in a game that only hard-core gridiron junkies found interesting. The Spartans didn’t make any money from the trip, but they did win 27-16. Never mind that for the first time in college football history, bowl opponents would each finish with losing records, or that only a handful of people watched in the Citrus Bowl. San Jose, like Alabama and Stanford, was a bowl winner!
In the real universe upon returning from Disney World, however, personable San Jose HC Ron Caragher realizes that he is on something of a hot seat as his Spartans, while admittedly 1-0 in their bowl appearances, have yet to crack the .500 mark in his three years on the job. Which represents quite a slide in the wrong direction for a program that seemed on the ascent a few years ago for predecessor Mike MacIntyre when going 11-2 and beating Bowling Green in the 2012 Military Bowl. Since MacIntyre is now on the hot seat at Colorado after winning only ten games in the three years since with the Buffs, and the Spartans have not climbed during that time period, either, perhaps MacIntyre could have saved everyone a lot of trouble by just staying in San Jose, but we digress.
In what might be a must-win season for Caragher, at least his Spartans figure to have a fighting chance. There are 15 listed starters back in the fold from 2015, though one of those is not RB Tyler Ervin, who led the nation’s rushers for a time last fall and ended with 1601 YR plus another 45 pass receptions before being drafted by the NFL’s Houston Texans. Although former juco QB Kenny Potter does return after an impressive debut when completing 67% of his passes and tossing 15 TDs after taking the job from holdover Joe Gray. Potter’s feet are also not in concrete, reflected in his 415 YR and five scrambles good for 30 yards or more.
Potter’s ability to both pass and run is a good indicator for an attack that if nothing else was well-balanced a year ago, ranking a respectable 60th in total offense. Achieving that sort of balance might be harder chore this fall minus Ervin, though compact 202-lb. sr. Thomas Tucker has run with some flair when not injured in recent years, even if most of those highlights came back in 2013. More than likely, o.c. Al Borges will employ a RB-by-committee approach in the fall.
The versatile Potter, however, at least figures to give SJSU a puncher’s chance, especially with three of his top four targets back in the fold, including All-MW sr. TE Billy Freeman (48 catches last year). Four starters are back along an OL that successfully implemented some position switches in spring, with jr. Nate Velichko moving from LT to RT. Velichko, along with LG Jeremiah Kolone, are rated as honors candidates along the forward wall.
The “D” has a different look after vet d.c. Greg Robinson retired. New coordinator Ron English, once a HC at Eastern Michigan who has lived to tell about it after earlier in his career considered an up-and-comer in the coaching ranks when Lloyd Carr’s d.c. at Michigan, has a new staff with him that will be tasked first and foremost to improve a sieve-like rush “D” that has ranked 119th and 102nd, respectively, vs. the run the past two seasons.
English does have some experience at his disposal with seven returning starters on the platoon, including sr. DEs Nick Oreglia and Isaiah Irving. During spring, English and staff decided to move jr. Andre Chachere to a CB spot after he started 10 games as a hybrid LB/safety a year ago in Robinson’s alignments. Playmakers of note at the LB spots include Christian Tago, an All-MW pick last fall, and soph Frank Ginda, who flashed real upside as a frosh. Though foes spent most of their time running at the soft San Jose rush defense a year ago, the Spartans still ranked second nationally in pass yards allowed and a very respectable 34th in total defense, spectacular numbers for San Jose and a credit to the schemes of the crafty Robinson. Not the easiest shoes for English to fill.
Caragher, who was likely to get another season even before the bowl invitation after San Jose improved from three wins in 2014, is nonetheless on a semi-hot seat and cannot afford the program to regress if he wants to last into 2017. A tricky non-league slate that includes games at Tulsa and Iowa State and home vs. Utah might make a fast start difficult, and San Jose has road league dates at division favorites Boise State and San Diego State. To paraphrase the great actor John Houseman from the long-ago Smith Barney TV commercials, if Caragher is to last into next season, he will have done it the old-fashioned way, by earning it.
Spread-wise, Caragher’s San Jose’s has developed a few noteworthy trends, including 9-2 as chalk the past two seasons, but just 2-12 as an underdog over the same span. The Spartans have also covered their last four openers dating to the end of the MacIntrye regime, something perhaps to keep in mind for the September 3 kickoff at Tulsa.
For 30 years, UNLV (2015 SU 3-9; ATS 5-7) tried almost everything to find the proper head coach since Harvey Hyde was fired after the 1985 season, the last time a Rebel mentor had a winning career record at the school. Promoting from within, tapping up-and-coming assistants and decorated coordinators, luring former legendary coaches, and hiring successful coaches at lower levels all didn’t work. But before UNLV would be reduced to hiring Wayne Newton as its next coach, it would test the one hiring route it had not traveled before...straight from the high school ranks.
Never mind recent history, and other sorts elsewhere such as Gerry Faust and Todd Dodge that had failed to make the similar jump. After the Bobby Hauck regime finally ran aground after another 2-win season in 2014, UNLV gambled and plucked local prep legend coach Tony Sanchez from in-town national power Bishop Gorman. After all, what could the risk be if all other avenues had failed?
Well, as expected, the jury remains out on the Sanchez hire. Optimistic sorts in Clark County point to a slight improvement (two wins to three) from the last season of the Hauck era. Some longtime regional observers also detected a bit more spark last year from the Rebs, who might have made a run at a minor bowl had injuries not decimated the team in the second half of the season.
Ahh, the injury excuse. Always a convenient scapegoat. In the case of UNLV 2015, however, it certainly applied in the late collapse. That’s also a byproduct of shallow depth, and when there is little or no cover at the all-important QB spot.
Indeed, we never really got to see what the Rebels could do a year ago with a healthy QB Blake Decker, who was in and out of the lineup almost the entire season with a collection of nagging injuries that forced limited backup Kurt Palandech, who wouldn’t even complete 50% of his 152 pass attempts, into action in all but one game. With Palandech forced either to start or relieve hurting Decker from early October, the Rebs would lose (and fail to cover) 6 of their last 7 games after briefly teasing the locals following a rousing win at Reno vs. Fremont Cannon rival Nevada.
Decker has moved on and the QB position remains a question as UNLV proceeds into year two of the Sanchez experiment. Palandech remains, but most MW observers believe that juco A-A Johnny Stanton, who began his career at Nebraska where he played for current Reb o.c. Barney Cotton, is likely to win the job this fall after exiting spring slightly ahead of Palandech. The wild card in the mix is true frosh Armani Rogers, an L.A. area product most likely to be redshirted unless Stanton or Palandech can’t deliver.
Cotton’s Nebraska-styled offense moved the ball effectively on the ground a year ago, gaining almost 200 ypg rushing, and top RBs Keith Whitely (team-best 711 YR) and Lexington Thomas (506 YR) are back in the fold. The forward wall was one area that was injury-wracked in 2015 and ended the season with a severely undersized quintet, but a year of beefing up at the training table could pay dividends. There are established receiving targets in jrs. Devonte Boyd (54 catches LY) and Kendal Keys (another 43 receptions), who combined for 13 TDs in 2015, plus RS frosh Darren Woods, Jr., who put on a show in spring. But unless Cotton finds consistency at the QB spot, these other potential positives might not resonate.
What Mountain West observers mostly applauded about Sanchez in his debut year was hiring veteran coordinators like Cotton and Kent Baer (formerly at Colorado, Washington, and Notre Dame, where he was also interim HC for the Fighting Irish in the 2004 Insight Bowl after Ty Willingham’s dismissal), who oversaw the defense. Much like the offense, however, Baer’s platoon would tail off late in the season after injuries brutally exposed a lack of depth. UNLV allowed 42 ppg in its last five games after not embarrassing itself early in the season vs. the likes of UCLA and Michigan.
Areas of needed upgrade are obvious, especially vs. the run where the Rebs were more than a bit ginger last fall when ranking a sorry 111th nationally and routinely overpowered at the line of scrimmage. Opposing runners would gain an astonishing 800 yards after first contact as well as a hefty 5.7 ypc. Baer was supposedly satisfied with the progress he saw in spring, and another year in the weight room should help the Reb physicality. UNLV also finished last nationally with a puny nine sacks, an especially unsatisfactory stat in this day and age.
There is some experience in the front seven, with DE Mark Finau and DT Mike Hughes as returning starters up front, and all three LBs return, now augmented by Illinois sr. transfer LaKeith Walls and decorated juco Brian Keyes. The secondary returns both starting corners, Terry McTyer and Tim Hough, and figures to be the strength of the platoon, whatever that means for a stop unit that ranked 110th nationally.
The schedule is a bit more favorable than a year ago, though there is a first-ever trip to the Rose Bowl in week two for the return match vs. UCLA. Still, the Rebs figure to be heavily favored at home vs. Jackson State and Idaho before Mountain West play commences. Trips to San Diego State and Boise State might be beyond UNLV’s reach, but if the Rebs can stay healthier than last year and avoid their depth being exposed, plus get some satisfactory work at QB, they ought to have a look at the other games, and the locals might prefer watching UNLV on Saturdays instead of taking in Donny & Marie at the Flamingo. But those are some big ifs.
The Sanchez spread marks in 2015 were distorted by the QB issues and the spate of injuries; the Rebs were covering numbers early in the season and not doing so down the stretch. What was worth noting, however, was an 0-4 home dog mark at wind-swept Sam Boyd Stadium, a role in which UNLV had fared quite well in the preceding Hauck and Mike Sanford regimes. The Rebs also enter 2016 “over” in 13 of their last 16 games dating back to late 2014.
The fall from grace for Fresno State Bulldogs (2015 SU 3-9; ATS 4-8) HC Tim DeRuyter has not been quite as dramatic as for British Prime Minister David Cameron after the recent Brexit vote. After all, DeRuyter will still have his job this fall, and Cameron won’t. But come December or January, DeRuyter might be looking for his next job, too, if his Fresno program can’t pull out of its recent lurch and get back to a bowl for the first time since 2013.
And it’s not just that the Bulldogs are losing. They’ve taken more beatings than former heavyweight contender George Chuvalo the past few years, underlining how far they have fallen since DeRuyter was considered a coach du jour not long ago.
The Red Wave support base is certainly getting nervous about the direction of a program that has been all downhill since DeRuyter’s early days that were aided by holdovers from the preceding Pat Hill regime. Including QB Derek Carr, now the starter for the Oakland Raiders and who posted record-breaking stats for DeRuyter’s 2012 & ’13 teams. Numerous heavy defeats have followed, several of those a year ago, including a 73-point bomb dropped by Ole Miss and a 56-14 home loss to Utah State. Utah also rolled at Fresno, when the Utes rubbed it in with a last second pass for a score. There were suspicions in the region that Utah HC Kyle Whittingham wanted to send a message to DeRuyter for needlessly running up the scores on some other members of the coaching fraternity, or which Whittingham is a card-carrying member, earlier in his Fresno career.
So, the one-time golden boy coach from Air Force is now at a crossroads, and prospects are not encouraging for a program that is slipping fast, not the direction to be headed in your fifth year on the job.
The most glaring need is for some stability at the QB position, which has cycled six different starters post-Carr. There is hope that RS frosh Chason Virgil, who showed promise early last term before getting KO’d with broken collarbone in his first start during that ill-fated 45-24 loss to Utah, can provide some relief, but garbage-time TDs at Ole Miss make for a risky endorsement. Former West Virginia transfer Ford Childress, also hurt last season, and soph Kilton Anderson, who started much of the second half of the campaign but completed fewer than 50% of his passes while tossing just 2 TDs in 157 attempts, are also in the mix. Some MW observers believe DeRuyter might even roll the dice with true frosh Quentin Davis if the season starts to go pear-shaped into October.
In a true sign of hot-seat status, DeRuyter made several staff changes in the offseason (six in all), cleaning out almost the entire cast of offensive assistants, including coordinator Dave Schramm, after the “O” slumped to triple figures nationally in all key stat categories, including a ghastly 122nd in total offense. New o.c. Eric Kiesau arrived from Alabama and began to simplify the offense in spring, junking the uptempo spread looks and instead installing multi-set pro looks designed at establishing the run, as they do in Tuscaloosa. Unfortunately, there is no Derrick Henry on the Bulldog roster, with QB Anderson the leading returning rusher after gaining 211 yards while often running for his life a year ago. Workhorse Marteze Waller, who gained 2288 YR the past two seasons, has departed, and Kiesau likely employs an RB-by-committee approach, though 217-lb. juco transfer Dontel James got most of the first-team reps in spring.
But after years of running uptempo, the switch to a ball-control offense seems curious, especially without any experienced RBs to rely upon. This move could backfire on DeRuyter.
If there is a strength on offense it would appear to be the receiving corps, as the top three pass catchers from 2015 (wideouts Jamire Jordan, KeeSean Johnson, and Da’Mari Scott) all return, but three new starters are being plugged in along the OL. There appears nowhere to go but up for the offense...but wouldn’t it be hard to be more inept than the Bulldogs were a year ago?
DeRuyter also made switches on his defensive staff, demoting Nick Toth to a LB coach in favor of SEC veteran Lorenzo Ward, most recently on South Carolina’s staff and now in charge of DeRuyter’s beloved 3-4 that was a sack and turnover machine upon his arrival. Not lately, however, deteriorating much like the offense, all of the way down to a 118th ranking in scoring (38.1 ppg) a year ago, leaving plenty of gaps for Ward to fill.
Only four starters return on defense, which might not be a bad thing, though the CB position should be capable with returning starters Tyquwan Glass and Jamal Ellis still in the fold. Upgrades are really needed up front where the Bulldogs were routinely blown off of the line of scrimmage last season en route to ranking a sickly 117th vs. the run (235 ypg). To that end, a couple of 310-lb. juco NTs, Malik Forrester and Patrick Belony, were signed in a hurry in the offseason, and their presence at least allows Nate Madsen to slide back outside to his natural DE position. A possible playmaker to watch is hybrid LB/safety James Bailey, one of the few Bulldog defenders to flash real upside a year ago.
Schedule-wise, Fresno is expected to be overmatched in the opener at Nebraska, and we’ll get a better feel if DeRuyter has the program back on the upswing if results are better vs. Toledo and Tulsa later in September. The Mountain West is not a treacherous league, but Fresno won only two games in the loop a year ago. Unless DeRuyter can improve significantly on that number, it will be confirmation that the program has gone in the wrong direction on his watch, and his future job prospects at Fresno become cloudy. We’ll see what happens.
Another reason DeRuyter has quickly fallen out of favor with the Red Wave is an unmistakable pointspread downturn that actually began during Derek Carr’s last season in 2013. The Bulldogs are a subpar 15-23-1 vs. the line the past three seasons, since 2013, and just 5-11 against the number their last 16 away from home. Fresno is also just 3-10 vs. the line its last 13 vs. non-MW foes, with two of those Ws against lower-level Southern Utah and Abilene Christian opposition, something to keep in mind prior to the Nebraska, Toledo, and Tulsa games.
It was US philosopher and poet George Santayana who once said, “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” Well, we can be reasonably sure that the schedule-makers for football at Hawaii (2015 SU 3-10; ATS 3-10) paid no attention to Mr. Santayana, as the Rainbow Warriors do not seem to have learned much from their suicidal scheduling resolve from a year ago.
To wit: Last year, Hawaii took a pair of long trips to Big Ten powers Ohio State and Wisconsin within a two-week span in September. In the process, the Rainbows were ground into hula dust, blanked in both of those games with confidence shaken and bodies badly bruised. And when the team returned to Honolulu from Madison and flew back to Boise a few days later, instead of staying on the mainland as many past Hawaii editions had done, the exhausted Warriors were blasted by the Broncos, 55-0. Three shutouts on the road within three calendar weeks, traveling more miles than Secretary of State John Kerry in the process. Hawaii’s season was effectively finished at that point, as was the disappointing tenure of HC Norm Chow, who would be dismissed a month later after a 58-7 Halloween night massacre at Aloha Stadium administered by Air Force. And the game wasn’t that close.
So what does Hawaii have scheduled for this season? How about an early opening the other way across the Pacific, all of the way down to Sydney, Australia to face Cal! But rather than take a week off afterward (as Cal is doing), or playing a game at home, it’s on to Ann Arbor to face Jim Harbaugh’s highly-ranked Michigan. So, a 10,000-mile round trip to Sydney will be followed by a 9000-mile round trip to Detroit Metro. Two weeks later, it’s back to the mainland again to face Pac-12 Arizona in Tucson. Thus, in the first month of the season alone, the Warriors will be logging well over 25,000 air miles, and will have traveled approximately 46,594 air miles by the time the 2016 term is complete, two-to-three times more than most NFL teams travel in a season.
So, welcome home, Nick Rolovich!
We’re sure Hawaii’s new HC, hired off of Brian Polian’s Nevada staff but very familiar on the islands after his playing days as QB during the June Jones Red Gun era and on staffs of Jones and successor Greg McMackin at Aloha Stadium, would not have endorsed such sadistic non-conference scheduling. But it is what it is at Hawaii, which runs a significant budget deficit with its football program and needs a couple of big mainland (or Aussie) paydays to stay afloat.
Rolovich, who became well-versed in the Chris Ault Pistol at Nevada after being exposed to the Red Gun earlier in his career, is going to try to combine both in a hybrid system that blends the run-and-shoot and read-option concepts. During spring, Rolovich was able to test drive not only the new offense, but also the unique play-calling arrangement to be shared with former Rainbow Warrior teammates Brian Smith (run game) and Craig Stutzmann (pass game). Still to be figured out is who will be taking snaps after nothing was resolved in spring. Holdover Ikaika Woolsey is the only QB on the roster who has thrown a D-I pass, but RS frosh Aaron Zwahlen and soph Beau Reilly, back from his LDS mission, remain in the mix heading into fall camp.
Nothing ever worked for the preceding Chow offense, which ditched the Red Gun principles first implemented by Jones, and the Rolovich attack has nowhere to go but up after Hawaii ranked 120th in total offense and 118th in scoring a year ago. There are eight starters back in the “O” mix, including slashing RB Paul Harris, one of the few bright spots of last season when running for 1132 yards. Nine of the top ten receivers, including Marcus Kemp, who caught a team-best 36 passes a year ago, also return. The change theme continued in spring when Rolovich and his co-coordinators juggled positions with the four returning starters up front. Hawaii also saves a scholarship or two by having on the roster sr. Rigoberto Sanchez, who handles FGs, PATs, punts, kickoffs, and peanut sales at Aloha Stadium when time permits.
The back-to-the-future element continues on defense, where Rolovich has brought back another link to the June Jones era, d.c. Kevin Lempa, who last worked in Honolulu 13 years ago and was most recently DB coach at Boston College. Lempa will resurrect the 4-3 defense from the Jones years with hopes of coaxing more big plays after the 2015 platoon generated a puny 11 TOs, contributing to a nation’s worst -23 TO margin (ouch!).
Unfortunately, the top returning defender, All-MW DT Kennedy Tulimasealii, is in eligibility limbo after a pair of spring arrests earned him a suspension from the team. Even with Tuilmasealii, Hawaii ranked 120th nationally vs. the run, and his availability, plus fellow DTs, former Colorado transfer Kory Rasmussen, and Samiuela Akoteu, recovering from offseason knee and foot injuries, respectively, will be key to any upgrades.
In spring, Lempa moved DE Jahlani Tavai from DE to MLB with positive results, and weakside LB Jerrol-Garcia Williams is considered the best pro prospect on the platoon. More position switches figure to continue when the Warriors report to fall camp. A key in the secondary will be the return of SS Trayvon Henderson, a two-year starter who sat out 2015 with injury.
In conclusion, we wonder if Rolovich is going to regret this move back to Hawaii, and the likely bitter homecoming this fall. Hawaii has quickly become a thankless job, more treacherous because of the Honolulu fishbowl and exorbitant local pressure. True, the link to the Jones era has some local diehards, including former play-by-play man Jim Leahey, excited, and the ghost of Don Ho also likely approves, but it looks like a long, long slog for Rolovich to get the Rainbow Warriors, with five straight losing seasons, back on track.
Spread-wise, Aloha Stadium relinquished its reputation as a fortress during the Chow years, and Hawaii enters 2016 having dropped 10 of its last 11 vs. the line at home. The Warriors also dropped 10 of their last 11 vs. the spread at all sites a year ago.
July 12, 2016
Mountain West Conference - West Division Preview
Last year's straight-up, against the spread, and over/under results are included for each team, presented in predicted order of finish...
By the end of last season, the only thing grating about San Diego State (2015 SU 11-3; ATS 8-5-1) was longtime play-by-play man Ted Leitner. Ten straight wins to close the season would make it easy to ignore the infuriating Leitner as the Aztecs began to fly in some rarified air, tying one of the legendary Don Coryell’s best SDSU teams (with QB Dennis Shaw in 1969) for the school’s all-time win mark at 11. Along the way the Aztecs rolled to the Mountain West crown and restored some dignity to the league when blasting American rep Cincinnati in the Hawaii Bowl.
All of that seemed a bit far-fetched in late September when SDSU was laboring at 1-3 and counted a home loss against Sun Belt South Alabama on the debit side of the ledger. Even as the subsequent win streak advanced, and the Aztecs dominated the MW by winning all of their regular-season conference games by 14 or more, they bore little resemblance to the pass-happy template that Coryell’s teams created once upon a time on Montezuma Mesa. (Indeed, it’s been a while since SDSU’s passing game resembled a well-oiled machine.) Yet Kentucky transfer QB Maxwell Smith proved an effective game manager and kept mistakes to a minimum as the offense would pivot around slashing RB Donnel Pumphrey, who would run away with MW MVP honors while rushing for 1653 yards. Meanwhile, the stop unit eventually got the hang of HC (and d.c.) Rocky Long’s noted schemes out of 3-3-5 alignments and would finish in the top ten nationally in all relevant (rushing, passing, scoring, and overall) categories. Among other noteworthy stat accomplishments by the 2015 Aztecs was a staggering +22 TO margin that ranked best in the land.
The pieces are in place to dominate the MW again, partly because of the return of star RB Pumphrey, who resisted the temptation to jump early into last April’s NFL Draft. Still on campus, the whippet-like, 180-lb. sr. from Las Vegas with 4272 career YR is now within sight of Marshall Faulk’s all-time school rushing mark of 4589 YRs (set, it should be noted, in just three seasons between 1991-93). Moreover, Pumphrey led SDSU with 28 pass receptions a year ago. He’s the closest thing to a one man gang this side of the WWE, though RS frosh Juwan Washington is a 5'7 jitterbug who could give Pumphrey an occasional blow after impressing in the spring game, when he scored on a 48-yard run.
Pumphrey’s presence is important, because there are still questions about the new QB, soph Christian Chapman, who got his feet wet late last season when taking over for injured Maxwell Smith and leading the last three SDSU wins, including the MW title game vs. Air Force and the bowl win in Honolulu vs. the Bearcats. Yet Chapman’s ability to throw downfield remains a bit of an unknown, and the strike force is again likely to revolve around the mercurial Pumphrey. More will be expected of WR Micah Holder, the leading returning wideout who caught 24 passes a year ago.
More substantive concerns for o.c. Jeff Horton are on the right side of the OL, with new starters to break in at the guard and tackle spots. But three other starters, including honors candidate LG Nico Siragusa, return along a forward wall which paved the way for a school-record 3266 YR last fall. The Aztecs also have a return threat of note in Rashaad Penny, who gained a whopping 33.5 yards on his KRs and took 3 of those back for TDs.
SDSU can probably deal with a few bumps on the offensive side because the “D” looks once again to be head-and-shoulders above all others in the MW. Good news came last January when CB Damontae Kazee, the MW Defensive MVP, like Pumphrey also decided to wait on the NFL Draft so he could return for his senior season, where he will again will lock down the opponents’ best receiver and be the leader of one of the region’s top secondaries that also featured big-play jr. FS Malik Smith, who recorded 77 tackles and 5 picks of his own last season. Fellow DB Na’im McGee, playing the same “Aztec” role in the Rocky Long defense as did Brian Urlacher once upon a time for Long at New Mexico (when the position was appropriately called “Lobo”), was the team’s second leading tackler with 81 a year ago.
There are a few holes to fill up front defensively, but returnee DEs Kyle Kelley and Alex Barrett combined for 13 sacks last season, and LB Calvin Munson was a playmaker, recording a team-best 98 tackles that included 15 stops for loss and 9.5 sacks. No MW team scored more than 17 points vs. this platoon until Air Force tallied 24 in the MW title game.
The non-league schedule appears less treacherous than a year ago, especially since the highest-profile foe, Cal, visits Qualcomm Stadium in rebuild mode after QB Jared Goff was the first pick by the Rams in the NFL Draft. Challenges in the Mountain West do not include Boise State or Air Force, both off of the schedule until perhaps the conference title game. Which is where the Aztecs likely wind up again in December, where, if all goes well, SDSU could enter as a ranked team. Which would make another season of Ted Leitner at the microphone at least tolerable for Aztec backers.
Spread-wise, we’re not sure SDSU gets many chances in an underdog role that has proved profitable for Long’s Aztec teams (now 8-3-1 last 12 getting points). But SDSU has certainly been a go-with vs. MW foes, undefeated vs. the line in the last 11 regular-season league games. Consistent with the defensive theme, Rocky’s guys are also 20-7 “under” the past two seasons.
The “Pistol” formation has been about as familiar in Washoe County as the annual Reno air races in August or the legendary BBQ cook-off each September at John Ascuaga’s Nugget in Sparks. Since introduced by HOF HC Chris Ault in 2005, the Pistol has been the primary offensive formation for the Nevada Wolf Pack (2015 SU 7-6; ATS 8-4-1) and helped QB Colin Kaepernick make a name for himself in college before moving to the NFL 49ers.
The Pistol has remained in place at Mackay Stadium since Ault retired following the 2012 season, as successor Brian Polian was not about to change a good thing. But with o.c. Nick Rolovich, a holdover from the Ault years, having moved in the offseason to alma mater Hawaii to become its head coach, Polian is making some significant adjustments to the Nevada “O” for the first time since early in George W. Bush’s second term in the White House. Though the Pistol will not go away completely, Polian did not hire new o.c. Tim Cramsey from Montana State to abandon the high-power spread that Cramsey’s Bobcat offenses employed recently in Bozeman.
Cramsey, a Chip Kelly disciple, has been enlisted by Polian to add more pop to a passing game that regressed to a sickly 113th national ranking a season ago. The Pistol principles that produced a pair of 1000-yard rushers last season will not be abandoned, but Cramsey’s task is rather straight-forward, as instructed by HC Polian...put some dynamism back into the passing game.
To that end, Cramsey and Polian opened up QB competition in the spring despite the presence of returning starter Tyler Stewart, who led the Pack to a win in the All-MW Arizona Bowl vs. Colorado State last December. Juco transfer Ty Gangi and last year’s backup, soph Hunter Fralick, were given looks, though by the end of spring it was Stewart still in the pilot seat after looking increasingly comfortable in Cramsey’s offense as spring progressed.
Nine starters are back on offense, and that doesn’t even include jr. RB James Butler, who gained 1345 YR a year ago in a relief role (only one start). Penn State grad transfer Akeel Lynch should give Polian & Cramsey another potent 1-2 RB punch. All five starters return on an all-upperclass OL that had some problems in protecting Stewart a year ago but in spring was getting the hang of Cramsey's offense and the upgraded pass-blocking techniques.
For the "O" to hum, however, it will be up to sr. QB Stewart to take another step forward after producing only serviceable stats (2139 YP & 15 TDs) a year ago. A good athlete, Stewart also affords Cramsey some added options in the spread and Pistol. Plaxico Burress-sized Hassan Henderson and electron Jerrico Richardson combined for 120 catches and 9 TDs. They’re two of seven projected seniors to start on offense. Another sr. is PK Brent Zuzo, a nice safety blanket should drives bog down after hitting all 17 of his FG tries inside of 50 yards a year ago.
We usually spend more time talking about Nevada’s offense because, well, there’s more to talk about. But the Pack probably wouldn’t have qualified for a bowl last season if not for stop unit upgrades that continued under d.c. Scott Boone, who arrived from William & Mary in 2014 and has authored improvements each of the last two seasons after the “D” leaked badly (34.4 ppg) in Polian’s first season of 2013.
Boone, though, has a chore this fall with an almost completely-rebuilt front seven that must replace, among others, all-MW DEs Ian Seau and Lenny Jones. Several recent backups who were part of well-regarded recruiting hauls will be expected to contribute right away alongside the only returning starter up front, sr. NT Salesa Faraimo, while RS frosh DT Huasia Sekona was one of the headliners in spring. The LB corps is completely rebuilt, where returnees have combined for all of three starts and RS frosh Gabe Sewell is expected to handle MLB duties.
Fortunately for Boone, the secondary returns all four starters, with soph safeties Asauni Rufus and Dameon Baber already regarded as two of the best in the MW, and sr. Elijah Mitchell rated as one of the top shutdown corners in the league.
The schedule intrigues, as the Pack gets a do-over for one of the great missed opportunities in school history when Ault’s 2009 team, with Kaepernick, was blanked at Notre Dame in the opener. This year, Nevada gets Cal Poly to hopefully work out some of the kinks in the new Cramsey offense before a return to South Bend, though a more realistic chance for a marquee non-league win might come two weeks later at Purdue. The Pack gets a break in the MW as it misses Boise State, Air Force, and Colorado State from the Mountain half, while getting West favorite San Diego State, plus Utah State, in Reno. Nevada, which since Ault installed the Pistol in 2005 has missed a bowl only in Polian’s debut campaign of 2013, should get back to one of those MW postseason dates in Albuquerque, Boise, or Tucson again this season.
Spread-wise, note that Polian’s Nevada has become ornery on the road, standing 9-2-1 vs. the line as a visitor the past two seasons. The Pack also enters this fall “under” 11-5 in its last 16 games on the board.
If you’re looking for an example of bowl bloat, meet San Jose State (2015 SU 6-7; ATS 8-5), which made it to the postseason with a 5-7 record last fall only because there were not enough 6-6 teams to fill all of the available slots, and the Spartans had a good enough team APR score to qualify. But the Orlando Cure Bowl was glad to have San Jose face 6-6 Georgia State in a game that only hard-core gridiron junkies found interesting. The Spartans didn’t make any money from the trip, but they did win 27-16. Never mind that for the first time in college football history, bowl opponents would each finish with losing records, or that only a handful of people watched in the Citrus Bowl. San Jose, like Alabama and Stanford, was a bowl winner!
In the real universe upon returning from Disney World, however, personable San Jose HC Ron Caragher realizes that he is on something of a hot seat as his Spartans, while admittedly 1-0 in their bowl appearances, have yet to crack the .500 mark in his three years on the job. Which represents quite a slide in the wrong direction for a program that seemed on the ascent a few years ago for predecessor Mike MacIntyre when going 11-2 and beating Bowling Green in the 2012 Military Bowl. Since MacIntyre is now on the hot seat at Colorado after winning only ten games in the three years since with the Buffs, and the Spartans have not climbed during that time period, either, perhaps MacIntyre could have saved everyone a lot of trouble by just staying in San Jose, but we digress.
In what might be a must-win season for Caragher, at least his Spartans figure to have a fighting chance. There are 15 listed starters back in the fold from 2015, though one of those is not RB Tyler Ervin, who led the nation’s rushers for a time last fall and ended with 1601 YR plus another 45 pass receptions before being drafted by the NFL’s Houston Texans. Although former juco QB Kenny Potter does return after an impressive debut when completing 67% of his passes and tossing 15 TDs after taking the job from holdover Joe Gray. Potter’s feet are also not in concrete, reflected in his 415 YR and five scrambles good for 30 yards or more.
Potter’s ability to both pass and run is a good indicator for an attack that if nothing else was well-balanced a year ago, ranking a respectable 60th in total offense. Achieving that sort of balance might be harder chore this fall minus Ervin, though compact 202-lb. sr. Thomas Tucker has run with some flair when not injured in recent years, even if most of those highlights came back in 2013. More than likely, o.c. Al Borges will employ a RB-by-committee approach in the fall.
The versatile Potter, however, at least figures to give SJSU a puncher’s chance, especially with three of his top four targets back in the fold, including All-MW sr. TE Billy Freeman (48 catches last year). Four starters are back along an OL that successfully implemented some position switches in spring, with jr. Nate Velichko moving from LT to RT. Velichko, along with LG Jeremiah Kolone, are rated as honors candidates along the forward wall.
The “D” has a different look after vet d.c. Greg Robinson retired. New coordinator Ron English, once a HC at Eastern Michigan who has lived to tell about it after earlier in his career considered an up-and-comer in the coaching ranks when Lloyd Carr’s d.c. at Michigan, has a new staff with him that will be tasked first and foremost to improve a sieve-like rush “D” that has ranked 119th and 102nd, respectively, vs. the run the past two seasons.
English does have some experience at his disposal with seven returning starters on the platoon, including sr. DEs Nick Oreglia and Isaiah Irving. During spring, English and staff decided to move jr. Andre Chachere to a CB spot after he started 10 games as a hybrid LB/safety a year ago in Robinson’s alignments. Playmakers of note at the LB spots include Christian Tago, an All-MW pick last fall, and soph Frank Ginda, who flashed real upside as a frosh. Though foes spent most of their time running at the soft San Jose rush defense a year ago, the Spartans still ranked second nationally in pass yards allowed and a very respectable 34th in total defense, spectacular numbers for San Jose and a credit to the schemes of the crafty Robinson. Not the easiest shoes for English to fill.
Caragher, who was likely to get another season even before the bowl invitation after San Jose improved from three wins in 2014, is nonetheless on a semi-hot seat and cannot afford the program to regress if he wants to last into 2017. A tricky non-league slate that includes games at Tulsa and Iowa State and home vs. Utah might make a fast start difficult, and San Jose has road league dates at division favorites Boise State and San Diego State. To paraphrase the great actor John Houseman from the long-ago Smith Barney TV commercials, if Caragher is to last into next season, he will have done it the old-fashioned way, by earning it.
Spread-wise, Caragher’s San Jose’s has developed a few noteworthy trends, including 9-2 as chalk the past two seasons, but just 2-12 as an underdog over the same span. The Spartans have also covered their last four openers dating to the end of the MacIntrye regime, something perhaps to keep in mind for the September 3 kickoff at Tulsa.
For 30 years, UNLV (2015 SU 3-9; ATS 5-7) tried almost everything to find the proper head coach since Harvey Hyde was fired after the 1985 season, the last time a Rebel mentor had a winning career record at the school. Promoting from within, tapping up-and-coming assistants and decorated coordinators, luring former legendary coaches, and hiring successful coaches at lower levels all didn’t work. But before UNLV would be reduced to hiring Wayne Newton as its next coach, it would test the one hiring route it had not traveled before...straight from the high school ranks.
Never mind recent history, and other sorts elsewhere such as Gerry Faust and Todd Dodge that had failed to make the similar jump. After the Bobby Hauck regime finally ran aground after another 2-win season in 2014, UNLV gambled and plucked local prep legend coach Tony Sanchez from in-town national power Bishop Gorman. After all, what could the risk be if all other avenues had failed?
Well, as expected, the jury remains out on the Sanchez hire. Optimistic sorts in Clark County point to a slight improvement (two wins to three) from the last season of the Hauck era. Some longtime regional observers also detected a bit more spark last year from the Rebs, who might have made a run at a minor bowl had injuries not decimated the team in the second half of the season.
Ahh, the injury excuse. Always a convenient scapegoat. In the case of UNLV 2015, however, it certainly applied in the late collapse. That’s also a byproduct of shallow depth, and when there is little or no cover at the all-important QB spot.
Indeed, we never really got to see what the Rebels could do a year ago with a healthy QB Blake Decker, who was in and out of the lineup almost the entire season with a collection of nagging injuries that forced limited backup Kurt Palandech, who wouldn’t even complete 50% of his 152 pass attempts, into action in all but one game. With Palandech forced either to start or relieve hurting Decker from early October, the Rebs would lose (and fail to cover) 6 of their last 7 games after briefly teasing the locals following a rousing win at Reno vs. Fremont Cannon rival Nevada.
Decker has moved on and the QB position remains a question as UNLV proceeds into year two of the Sanchez experiment. Palandech remains, but most MW observers believe that juco A-A Johnny Stanton, who began his career at Nebraska where he played for current Reb o.c. Barney Cotton, is likely to win the job this fall after exiting spring slightly ahead of Palandech. The wild card in the mix is true frosh Armani Rogers, an L.A. area product most likely to be redshirted unless Stanton or Palandech can’t deliver.
Cotton’s Nebraska-styled offense moved the ball effectively on the ground a year ago, gaining almost 200 ypg rushing, and top RBs Keith Whitely (team-best 711 YR) and Lexington Thomas (506 YR) are back in the fold. The forward wall was one area that was injury-wracked in 2015 and ended the season with a severely undersized quintet, but a year of beefing up at the training table could pay dividends. There are established receiving targets in jrs. Devonte Boyd (54 catches LY) and Kendal Keys (another 43 receptions), who combined for 13 TDs in 2015, plus RS frosh Darren Woods, Jr., who put on a show in spring. But unless Cotton finds consistency at the QB spot, these other potential positives might not resonate.
What Mountain West observers mostly applauded about Sanchez in his debut year was hiring veteran coordinators like Cotton and Kent Baer (formerly at Colorado, Washington, and Notre Dame, where he was also interim HC for the Fighting Irish in the 2004 Insight Bowl after Ty Willingham’s dismissal), who oversaw the defense. Much like the offense, however, Baer’s platoon would tail off late in the season after injuries brutally exposed a lack of depth. UNLV allowed 42 ppg in its last five games after not embarrassing itself early in the season vs. the likes of UCLA and Michigan.
Areas of needed upgrade are obvious, especially vs. the run where the Rebs were more than a bit ginger last fall when ranking a sorry 111th nationally and routinely overpowered at the line of scrimmage. Opposing runners would gain an astonishing 800 yards after first contact as well as a hefty 5.7 ypc. Baer was supposedly satisfied with the progress he saw in spring, and another year in the weight room should help the Reb physicality. UNLV also finished last nationally with a puny nine sacks, an especially unsatisfactory stat in this day and age.
There is some experience in the front seven, with DE Mark Finau and DT Mike Hughes as returning starters up front, and all three LBs return, now augmented by Illinois sr. transfer LaKeith Walls and decorated juco Brian Keyes. The secondary returns both starting corners, Terry McTyer and Tim Hough, and figures to be the strength of the platoon, whatever that means for a stop unit that ranked 110th nationally.
The schedule is a bit more favorable than a year ago, though there is a first-ever trip to the Rose Bowl in week two for the return match vs. UCLA. Still, the Rebs figure to be heavily favored at home vs. Jackson State and Idaho before Mountain West play commences. Trips to San Diego State and Boise State might be beyond UNLV’s reach, but if the Rebs can stay healthier than last year and avoid their depth being exposed, plus get some satisfactory work at QB, they ought to have a look at the other games, and the locals might prefer watching UNLV on Saturdays instead of taking in Donny & Marie at the Flamingo. But those are some big ifs.
The Sanchez spread marks in 2015 were distorted by the QB issues and the spate of injuries; the Rebs were covering numbers early in the season and not doing so down the stretch. What was worth noting, however, was an 0-4 home dog mark at wind-swept Sam Boyd Stadium, a role in which UNLV had fared quite well in the preceding Hauck and Mike Sanford regimes. The Rebs also enter 2016 “over” in 13 of their last 16 games dating back to late 2014.
The fall from grace for Fresno State Bulldogs (2015 SU 3-9; ATS 4-8) HC Tim DeRuyter has not been quite as dramatic as for British Prime Minister David Cameron after the recent Brexit vote. After all, DeRuyter will still have his job this fall, and Cameron won’t. But come December or January, DeRuyter might be looking for his next job, too, if his Fresno program can’t pull out of its recent lurch and get back to a bowl for the first time since 2013.
And it’s not just that the Bulldogs are losing. They’ve taken more beatings than former heavyweight contender George Chuvalo the past few years, underlining how far they have fallen since DeRuyter was considered a coach du jour not long ago.
The Red Wave support base is certainly getting nervous about the direction of a program that has been all downhill since DeRuyter’s early days that were aided by holdovers from the preceding Pat Hill regime. Including QB Derek Carr, now the starter for the Oakland Raiders and who posted record-breaking stats for DeRuyter’s 2012 & ’13 teams. Numerous heavy defeats have followed, several of those a year ago, including a 73-point bomb dropped by Ole Miss and a 56-14 home loss to Utah State. Utah also rolled at Fresno, when the Utes rubbed it in with a last second pass for a score. There were suspicions in the region that Utah HC Kyle Whittingham wanted to send a message to DeRuyter for needlessly running up the scores on some other members of the coaching fraternity, or which Whittingham is a card-carrying member, earlier in his Fresno career.
So, the one-time golden boy coach from Air Force is now at a crossroads, and prospects are not encouraging for a program that is slipping fast, not the direction to be headed in your fifth year on the job.
The most glaring need is for some stability at the QB position, which has cycled six different starters post-Carr. There is hope that RS frosh Chason Virgil, who showed promise early last term before getting KO’d with broken collarbone in his first start during that ill-fated 45-24 loss to Utah, can provide some relief, but garbage-time TDs at Ole Miss make for a risky endorsement. Former West Virginia transfer Ford Childress, also hurt last season, and soph Kilton Anderson, who started much of the second half of the campaign but completed fewer than 50% of his passes while tossing just 2 TDs in 157 attempts, are also in the mix. Some MW observers believe DeRuyter might even roll the dice with true frosh Quentin Davis if the season starts to go pear-shaped into October.
In a true sign of hot-seat status, DeRuyter made several staff changes in the offseason (six in all), cleaning out almost the entire cast of offensive assistants, including coordinator Dave Schramm, after the “O” slumped to triple figures nationally in all key stat categories, including a ghastly 122nd in total offense. New o.c. Eric Kiesau arrived from Alabama and began to simplify the offense in spring, junking the uptempo spread looks and instead installing multi-set pro looks designed at establishing the run, as they do in Tuscaloosa. Unfortunately, there is no Derrick Henry on the Bulldog roster, with QB Anderson the leading returning rusher after gaining 211 yards while often running for his life a year ago. Workhorse Marteze Waller, who gained 2288 YR the past two seasons, has departed, and Kiesau likely employs an RB-by-committee approach, though 217-lb. juco transfer Dontel James got most of the first-team reps in spring.
But after years of running uptempo, the switch to a ball-control offense seems curious, especially without any experienced RBs to rely upon. This move could backfire on DeRuyter.
If there is a strength on offense it would appear to be the receiving corps, as the top three pass catchers from 2015 (wideouts Jamire Jordan, KeeSean Johnson, and Da’Mari Scott) all return, but three new starters are being plugged in along the OL. There appears nowhere to go but up for the offense...but wouldn’t it be hard to be more inept than the Bulldogs were a year ago?
DeRuyter also made switches on his defensive staff, demoting Nick Toth to a LB coach in favor of SEC veteran Lorenzo Ward, most recently on South Carolina’s staff and now in charge of DeRuyter’s beloved 3-4 that was a sack and turnover machine upon his arrival. Not lately, however, deteriorating much like the offense, all of the way down to a 118th ranking in scoring (38.1 ppg) a year ago, leaving plenty of gaps for Ward to fill.
Only four starters return on defense, which might not be a bad thing, though the CB position should be capable with returning starters Tyquwan Glass and Jamal Ellis still in the fold. Upgrades are really needed up front where the Bulldogs were routinely blown off of the line of scrimmage last season en route to ranking a sickly 117th vs. the run (235 ypg). To that end, a couple of 310-lb. juco NTs, Malik Forrester and Patrick Belony, were signed in a hurry in the offseason, and their presence at least allows Nate Madsen to slide back outside to his natural DE position. A possible playmaker to watch is hybrid LB/safety James Bailey, one of the few Bulldog defenders to flash real upside a year ago.
Schedule-wise, Fresno is expected to be overmatched in the opener at Nebraska, and we’ll get a better feel if DeRuyter has the program back on the upswing if results are better vs. Toledo and Tulsa later in September. The Mountain West is not a treacherous league, but Fresno won only two games in the loop a year ago. Unless DeRuyter can improve significantly on that number, it will be confirmation that the program has gone in the wrong direction on his watch, and his future job prospects at Fresno become cloudy. We’ll see what happens.
Another reason DeRuyter has quickly fallen out of favor with the Red Wave is an unmistakable pointspread downturn that actually began during Derek Carr’s last season in 2013. The Bulldogs are a subpar 15-23-1 vs. the line the past three seasons, since 2013, and just 5-11 against the number their last 16 away from home. Fresno is also just 3-10 vs. the line its last 13 vs. non-MW foes, with two of those Ws against lower-level Southern Utah and Abilene Christian opposition, something to keep in mind prior to the Nebraska, Toledo, and Tulsa games.
It was US philosopher and poet George Santayana who once said, “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” Well, we can be reasonably sure that the schedule-makers for football at Hawaii (2015 SU 3-10; ATS 3-10) paid no attention to Mr. Santayana, as the Rainbow Warriors do not seem to have learned much from their suicidal scheduling resolve from a year ago.
To wit: Last year, Hawaii took a pair of long trips to Big Ten powers Ohio State and Wisconsin within a two-week span in September. In the process, the Rainbows were ground into hula dust, blanked in both of those games with confidence shaken and bodies badly bruised. And when the team returned to Honolulu from Madison and flew back to Boise a few days later, instead of staying on the mainland as many past Hawaii editions had done, the exhausted Warriors were blasted by the Broncos, 55-0. Three shutouts on the road within three calendar weeks, traveling more miles than Secretary of State John Kerry in the process. Hawaii’s season was effectively finished at that point, as was the disappointing tenure of HC Norm Chow, who would be dismissed a month later after a 58-7 Halloween night massacre at Aloha Stadium administered by Air Force. And the game wasn’t that close.
So what does Hawaii have scheduled for this season? How about an early opening the other way across the Pacific, all of the way down to Sydney, Australia to face Cal! But rather than take a week off afterward (as Cal is doing), or playing a game at home, it’s on to Ann Arbor to face Jim Harbaugh’s highly-ranked Michigan. So, a 10,000-mile round trip to Sydney will be followed by a 9000-mile round trip to Detroit Metro. Two weeks later, it’s back to the mainland again to face Pac-12 Arizona in Tucson. Thus, in the first month of the season alone, the Warriors will be logging well over 25,000 air miles, and will have traveled approximately 46,594 air miles by the time the 2016 term is complete, two-to-three times more than most NFL teams travel in a season.
So, welcome home, Nick Rolovich!
We’re sure Hawaii’s new HC, hired off of Brian Polian’s Nevada staff but very familiar on the islands after his playing days as QB during the June Jones Red Gun era and on staffs of Jones and successor Greg McMackin at Aloha Stadium, would not have endorsed such sadistic non-conference scheduling. But it is what it is at Hawaii, which runs a significant budget deficit with its football program and needs a couple of big mainland (or Aussie) paydays to stay afloat.
Rolovich, who became well-versed in the Chris Ault Pistol at Nevada after being exposed to the Red Gun earlier in his career, is going to try to combine both in a hybrid system that blends the run-and-shoot and read-option concepts. During spring, Rolovich was able to test drive not only the new offense, but also the unique play-calling arrangement to be shared with former Rainbow Warrior teammates Brian Smith (run game) and Craig Stutzmann (pass game). Still to be figured out is who will be taking snaps after nothing was resolved in spring. Holdover Ikaika Woolsey is the only QB on the roster who has thrown a D-I pass, but RS frosh Aaron Zwahlen and soph Beau Reilly, back from his LDS mission, remain in the mix heading into fall camp.
Nothing ever worked for the preceding Chow offense, which ditched the Red Gun principles first implemented by Jones, and the Rolovich attack has nowhere to go but up after Hawaii ranked 120th in total offense and 118th in scoring a year ago. There are eight starters back in the “O” mix, including slashing RB Paul Harris, one of the few bright spots of last season when running for 1132 yards. Nine of the top ten receivers, including Marcus Kemp, who caught a team-best 36 passes a year ago, also return. The change theme continued in spring when Rolovich and his co-coordinators juggled positions with the four returning starters up front. Hawaii also saves a scholarship or two by having on the roster sr. Rigoberto Sanchez, who handles FGs, PATs, punts, kickoffs, and peanut sales at Aloha Stadium when time permits.
The back-to-the-future element continues on defense, where Rolovich has brought back another link to the June Jones era, d.c. Kevin Lempa, who last worked in Honolulu 13 years ago and was most recently DB coach at Boston College. Lempa will resurrect the 4-3 defense from the Jones years with hopes of coaxing more big plays after the 2015 platoon generated a puny 11 TOs, contributing to a nation’s worst -23 TO margin (ouch!).
Unfortunately, the top returning defender, All-MW DT Kennedy Tulimasealii, is in eligibility limbo after a pair of spring arrests earned him a suspension from the team. Even with Tuilmasealii, Hawaii ranked 120th nationally vs. the run, and his availability, plus fellow DTs, former Colorado transfer Kory Rasmussen, and Samiuela Akoteu, recovering from offseason knee and foot injuries, respectively, will be key to any upgrades.
In spring, Lempa moved DE Jahlani Tavai from DE to MLB with positive results, and weakside LB Jerrol-Garcia Williams is considered the best pro prospect on the platoon. More position switches figure to continue when the Warriors report to fall camp. A key in the secondary will be the return of SS Trayvon Henderson, a two-year starter who sat out 2015 with injury.
In conclusion, we wonder if Rolovich is going to regret this move back to Hawaii, and the likely bitter homecoming this fall. Hawaii has quickly become a thankless job, more treacherous because of the Honolulu fishbowl and exorbitant local pressure. True, the link to the Jones era has some local diehards, including former play-by-play man Jim Leahey, excited, and the ghost of Don Ho also likely approves, but it looks like a long, long slog for Rolovich to get the Rainbow Warriors, with five straight losing seasons, back on track.
Spread-wise, Aloha Stadium relinquished its reputation as a fortress during the Chow years, and Hawaii enters 2016 having dropped 10 of its last 11 vs. the line at home. The Warriors also dropped 10 of their last 11 vs. the spread at all sites a year ago.
2016 Independents Preview
July 10, 2016
2016 Independents Football Betting Preview
And Now There Are Four
With UMass’ departure from the Mid American Conference, roll call among FBS Independent college football teams has inched up to four this year as the Minuteman join the ranks of Independents.
With Navy now firmly entrenched in the American Athletic Conference, and former unattached Independents Idaho and New Mexico State currently basking in the sun (for the time being at least), the look and feel of this autonomous affiliation seems to be changing its appearance more than Bruce Jenner these days.
Common Traits
With BYU new head coach Kalani Sitake replacing Bronco Mendenhall, the three other head coaches at Army, Notre Dame and UMass – namely Jeff Monken, Brian Kelly and Mark Whipple respectively, share a common denominator of which none are exceptionally proud.
According to our all-knowing database its seems the latter three tend to really struggle in games versus opponents sporting winning records. That’s confirmed by their collective 2-32 SU and 11-22-1 ATS mark with their teams against quality opponents.
Worse, when playing from Game Four out against these same foes they fall completely off the map, going 0-27 SU and 6-20-1 ATS.
Buyer beware.
Big Ugly Dogs
Each year one or two Independent teams find themselves Independent teams earn bowl bids. And when they do they become attractive plays when taking more than 7 points during the post season.
That’s confirmed by the fact that Independent bowl dogs of 7.5 or more points are 13-5 ATS in these games since 1980, including 12-2 ATS when facing a foe that allows more than 12.5 PPG on the season.
Note: Numbers following team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, along with the number of returning linemen, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback.
2016 INDEPENDENT PREVIEW
ARMY (Offense – *7/3, Defense – 9/3, 45 Lettermen)
TEAM THEME: AN ARMY OF ONE
Since winning 10 games in 1996, the Cadets have been to one bowl game and finished with a winning record just once (2010). The 13 years before then: 35-115. The 5 years since then: 14-46. Those are some mighty lean years, to say the least. A quick glance at the Statistical Review above tells volumes as the Black Knights have seen both their offensive and defensive rushing YPG production dip each year under 3rd year head coach Jeff Monken (a triple option specialist). Hence, it was no surprise the team lost 7 games by one possession (7 points) or less last season – tops in the nation. Sixteen returning starters should help elevate their chances in 2016.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Black Knights are 1-24 SU and 4-20 ATS in their last 25 true road games since 2011.
PLAY ON: vs. Navy (12/10)
BYU (Offense – *7/3, Defense – 8/3, 65 Lettermen)
TEAM THEME: A MAJOR MISSION
New head coach Kalani Sitake not only has monstrous shoes to fill with the departure of Bronco Mendenhall, but must also take on a schedule from hell, with foes 97-57 SU combined last year (sorry to all the Mormons reading this). It starts with having to face 9 straight bowl teams from last season. A highly anticipated renewal of the Holy War is circled in red by BYU from a bitter 35-28 loss to Utah in the Las Vegas bowl last year, a game in which the Utes led 35-0 in the first quarter. Decorated returning QBs Taysom Hill and Tanner Mangum lead a deeply experienced squad bolstered by 65 returning lettermen, including 5 OL with starting experience. With former Heisman Trophy winning QB Ty Detmer the new OC, the Cougars anxiously await a devilish schedule in 2016.
Stat You Will Like: The Cougars are 8-0 ATS as road dogs versus greater-than .750 opponents.
PLAY ON: at Utah (9/10) - *KEY
NOTRE DAME (Offense – *5/2, Defense – 5/2, 43 Lettermen)
TEAM THEME: U GOT THE LOOK
Like the final two losses to conclude the season last year, the Irish were hit hard by the NFL draft this year, losing 7 players – all in the first 4 rounds. That was the same as Alabama... and 6 more than were drafted last year. The good news is starting QBs Deshone Kizer and Malik Zaire each return, as do 4 other Irishmen that were projected to be starters last year before season-ending injuries curtailed their participation. Thus, the 5 returning starters showing on both sides of the ball will be deeper than the numbers suggest. Meanwhile, head coach Brian Kelly’s 149 wins since 2001 makes him the 3rd winningest active FBS coach since 2001, trailing only Oklahoma’s Bob Stoops and Ohio State’s Urban Meyer. Our recommendation: Don’t mess with Touchdown Jesus.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Kelly is 21-5-2 ATS as a dog of 12 or fewer points versus sub .900 opponents.
PLAY ON: vs. Stanford (10/15)
UMASS (Offense – 4/3, Defense – 6/2, 36 Lettermen)
TEAM THEME: SO LONG MAC
According to SB Nation, the Minutemen return less of last year’s production than any team in the country. So it’s a good thing head coach Mark Whipple has made the largest improvement recruiting the last five years combined, as reported by Rivals/247. One of those recruits, SO RB Marquis Young, was one of only 5 backs in the nation last year with at least 150 carries and a 6.0 YPR average. JUCO QB Andrew Ford, former 3-star recruit with Virginia Tech, who is expected to replace Blake Frohnapfel, will join Ford in the backfield. Three senior OL who started every game last season are also back. It all makes this transition out of the MAC an interesting year.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Minutemen are 1-9 SU in one-possession games under Mark Whipple.
PASS
July 10, 2016
2016 Independents Football Betting Preview
And Now There Are Four
With UMass’ departure from the Mid American Conference, roll call among FBS Independent college football teams has inched up to four this year as the Minuteman join the ranks of Independents.
With Navy now firmly entrenched in the American Athletic Conference, and former unattached Independents Idaho and New Mexico State currently basking in the sun (for the time being at least), the look and feel of this autonomous affiliation seems to be changing its appearance more than Bruce Jenner these days.
Common Traits
With BYU new head coach Kalani Sitake replacing Bronco Mendenhall, the three other head coaches at Army, Notre Dame and UMass – namely Jeff Monken, Brian Kelly and Mark Whipple respectively, share a common denominator of which none are exceptionally proud.
According to our all-knowing database its seems the latter three tend to really struggle in games versus opponents sporting winning records. That’s confirmed by their collective 2-32 SU and 11-22-1 ATS mark with their teams against quality opponents.
Worse, when playing from Game Four out against these same foes they fall completely off the map, going 0-27 SU and 6-20-1 ATS.
Buyer beware.
Big Ugly Dogs
Each year one or two Independent teams find themselves Independent teams earn bowl bids. And when they do they become attractive plays when taking more than 7 points during the post season.
That’s confirmed by the fact that Independent bowl dogs of 7.5 or more points are 13-5 ATS in these games since 1980, including 12-2 ATS when facing a foe that allows more than 12.5 PPG on the season.
Note: Numbers following team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, along with the number of returning linemen, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback.
2016 INDEPENDENT PREVIEW
ARMY (Offense – *7/3, Defense – 9/3, 45 Lettermen)
TEAM THEME: AN ARMY OF ONE
Since winning 10 games in 1996, the Cadets have been to one bowl game and finished with a winning record just once (2010). The 13 years before then: 35-115. The 5 years since then: 14-46. Those are some mighty lean years, to say the least. A quick glance at the Statistical Review above tells volumes as the Black Knights have seen both their offensive and defensive rushing YPG production dip each year under 3rd year head coach Jeff Monken (a triple option specialist). Hence, it was no surprise the team lost 7 games by one possession (7 points) or less last season – tops in the nation. Sixteen returning starters should help elevate their chances in 2016.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Black Knights are 1-24 SU and 4-20 ATS in their last 25 true road games since 2011.
PLAY ON: vs. Navy (12/10)
BYU (Offense – *7/3, Defense – 8/3, 65 Lettermen)
TEAM THEME: A MAJOR MISSION
New head coach Kalani Sitake not only has monstrous shoes to fill with the departure of Bronco Mendenhall, but must also take on a schedule from hell, with foes 97-57 SU combined last year (sorry to all the Mormons reading this). It starts with having to face 9 straight bowl teams from last season. A highly anticipated renewal of the Holy War is circled in red by BYU from a bitter 35-28 loss to Utah in the Las Vegas bowl last year, a game in which the Utes led 35-0 in the first quarter. Decorated returning QBs Taysom Hill and Tanner Mangum lead a deeply experienced squad bolstered by 65 returning lettermen, including 5 OL with starting experience. With former Heisman Trophy winning QB Ty Detmer the new OC, the Cougars anxiously await a devilish schedule in 2016.
Stat You Will Like: The Cougars are 8-0 ATS as road dogs versus greater-than .750 opponents.
PLAY ON: at Utah (9/10) - *KEY
NOTRE DAME (Offense – *5/2, Defense – 5/2, 43 Lettermen)
TEAM THEME: U GOT THE LOOK
Like the final two losses to conclude the season last year, the Irish were hit hard by the NFL draft this year, losing 7 players – all in the first 4 rounds. That was the same as Alabama... and 6 more than were drafted last year. The good news is starting QBs Deshone Kizer and Malik Zaire each return, as do 4 other Irishmen that were projected to be starters last year before season-ending injuries curtailed their participation. Thus, the 5 returning starters showing on both sides of the ball will be deeper than the numbers suggest. Meanwhile, head coach Brian Kelly’s 149 wins since 2001 makes him the 3rd winningest active FBS coach since 2001, trailing only Oklahoma’s Bob Stoops and Ohio State’s Urban Meyer. Our recommendation: Don’t mess with Touchdown Jesus.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Kelly is 21-5-2 ATS as a dog of 12 or fewer points versus sub .900 opponents.
PLAY ON: vs. Stanford (10/15)
UMASS (Offense – 4/3, Defense – 6/2, 36 Lettermen)
TEAM THEME: SO LONG MAC
According to SB Nation, the Minutemen return less of last year’s production than any team in the country. So it’s a good thing head coach Mark Whipple has made the largest improvement recruiting the last five years combined, as reported by Rivals/247. One of those recruits, SO RB Marquis Young, was one of only 5 backs in the nation last year with at least 150 carries and a 6.0 YPR average. JUCO QB Andrew Ford, former 3-star recruit with Virginia Tech, who is expected to replace Blake Frohnapfel, will join Ford in the backfield. Three senior OL who started every game last season are also back. It all makes this transition out of the MAC an interesting year.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Minutemen are 1-9 SU in one-possession games under Mark Whipple.
PASS
ACC Atlantic Outlook
July 12, 2016
ACC Atlantic Preview
Last year's straight-up, against the spread, and over/under results are included for each team, presented in predicted order of finish...
So much for any talk that Clemson (2015 SU 14-1; ATS 8-5-2; O/U 9-6) might have been a fluke last season. Ask Alabama HC Nick Saban, who looked as relieved after January’s BCS title escape over the Tigers as he might after completing the Boston Marathon.
Saban had reason to feel thankful, because the Crimson Tide could not stop Clemson, or more specifically then-soph QB Deshaun Watson, who passed and ran Bama silly in the title game to the tune of 478 total yards. Only a series of big plays by the Tide allowed Saban to escape with a 45-40 win. ACC insiders, however, suggest that near-miss is likely to act as season-long motivation for Watson and the Tigers to return to the title game and this time get it right. Though getting back to the Final Four for HC Dabo Swinney’s troops might hinge upon a late-October trip to Tallahassee...more on that potential game of the year vs. Florida State in a moment.
In the meantime, all eyes are on Watson, who enters the fall as one of top contenders for the Heisman Trophy (along with Stanford’s Christian McCaffrey and LSU’s Leonard Fournette) after a bang-up 2015 season in which he passed for 4104 yards and 35 TDs and ran for another 1105 yards and 12 TDs, redefining the meaning of “dual-threat QB” in the process. Though Watson’s 13 picks were on the high side, Swinney and co.-o.c.’s Tony Elliott and Jeff Scott can live with a few mistakes if Watson spends the rest of his time making big plays. Scarier for Clemson foes is the fact Watson returns several established complementary weapons among the eight returning starters on the attack end, and that doesn’t even include WR Mike Williams, who caught 1030 yards worth of passes as a soph in 2014 before redshirting a year ago due to a neck injury in the opener vs. Wofford. Opposing secondaries already had to worry about deep threat jr. Artavis Scott, who caught 93 passes a year ago.
Had Clemson beaten Bama, RB Wayne Gallman might have decided to turn pro instead of return for one more chance at the brass ring. Indeed, Gallman’s decision might have been one of the most impactful in all of college football in the offseason, as his 1527 YR a year ago makes the Tiger offense appear irresistible. A powerful, violent runner, Gallman offers the perfect diversion to Watson and suggests that Clemson can probably improve upon last year’s hefty 38.5 ppg scoring. Indeed, this season, Clemson could threaten to match the points scored by Brad Brownell’s basketball Tigers. The OL replaces two starters but there is no reason to believe it won’t be as good as a year ago, especially with soph LT Mitch Hyatt looking like a potential future NFL first-round pick and sr. C Jay Guillermo on many preseason All-America teams.
Replacing seven starters from last year’s nasty defense is not as daunting a task as it might seem after d.c. Brent Venables was able to fill in for the nine starters (many of those on to the NFL) he had to replace after 2014. Even so, last year’s Tigers ranked tenth nationally in total defense, so despite losing another collection to the NFL (led by DEs Shaq Lawson & Kevin Dodd & CB Mackensie Alexander), most ACC observers are not expecting much dropoff, though there are some questions in the secondary, where sr. CB Cordrea Tankersley is the only returning starter. The Tigers did allow a few too many big plays last season (including against Bama in the title game), and foes might test Clemson deep as the Tigers replace their NFL-draftee starting safeties T.J. Green (Colts) and Jayron Kearse (Vikings).
There has been a long line of impressive sack artists at Clemson, and ACC sources say Venables is high on DEs soph Austin Bryant and RS frosh Clelin Ferrell to continue the tradition. The highest-ranked player in the Tigers’ 2016 recruiting haul is monstrous, 340-lb. 5-star DT Dexter Lawrence. Senior WLB Ben Boulware is the leading returning tackler and perfect leader for the platoon, while soph MLB Kendall Joseph appears ticketed for stardom.
Oh yes, the schedule. Looking ahead to the ACC Atlantic showdown vs. Florida State on October 29 at Doak Campbell Stadium might be unavoidable, and the slate sets up perfectly for the Tigers, with a week off before that battle royale. There is, however, a potential banana peel right off of the bat in the all-Tiger opener at Auburn that could damage the Final Four hopes before Labor Day. Still, that showdown vs. the Seminoles is the only game where the Tigers are being projected as an underdog (the Las Vegas Golden Nugget opened FSU -3 ½ in its summer “Games of the Year” list). Avoid the other speed bumps and win that one vs. the Noles and it is likely full-steam ahead to another Final Four berth.
Spread-wise, after some bowl failures earlier in his career, note that Dabo has excelled lately in the postseason, covering five straight, including a pair of thumpers over Oklahoma the past two seasons, as well as SU wins vs. LSU and Ohio State since 2012. Be careful, however, as Clemson is apt to once again be saddled with some heavy pointspread premiums, and the Tigers covered only 1 of 4 laying 20 or more a season ago (the W vs. Wofford), and that mark is 1-6 the last seven dating to 2014.
In retrospect, Florida State (2015 SU 10-3; ATS 8-5; O/U 6-7) did pretty well to win 10 games last season. Consider that the OL was inconsistent and injury-plagued, star RB Dalvin Cook played hurt almost the entire season, while the inability to establish a vertical passing game allowed opponents to crowd the line of scrimmage. No matter, Seminole Nation wanted to hear none of that after a painful 38-24 Peach Bowl loss to Houston would end the campaign on a sour note and erase the good taste of the 27-2 win at Florida to close the regular season.
Still, let’s not forget that it was a rebuilding year (at least by FSU standards) in Tallahassee, and qualifying for a New Year’s Six date suggests just how deep of a talent reservoir HC Jimbo Fisher oversees these days at Doak Campbell Stadium. Fifteen starters, including nine on offense, return to the fold for this fall, creating an extra buzz during breakfast at the Waffle Houses throughout the Florida Panhandle.
For the Noles to make another serious national title bid as they did in 2013 & ‘14, however, might require more consistency at the QB position. Remember, Heisman winner Jameis Winston was quite the catalyst for those two FSU editions, but no one came close to filling that role a year ago, especially after Notre Dame transfer Everett Golson went down at midseason. Backup Sean Maguire, thrown into the fire in the Clemson game and in the pilot seat down the stretch, has limitations, so FSU backers were not particularly bothered that Maguire would sit out spring after ankle surgery, giving RS frosh Deondre Francois and early enrollee Malik Henry early auditions for the job. Both fared well enough to be considered in the race when the Noles reconvene for fall camp, and each has a higher ceiling than Maguire, whose strength is that of a game-manager more than a playmaker. How this situation sorts itself out will likely determine how far FSU progresses in the fall.
Comfort for whichever QB is on the field comes with slashing jr. RB Dalvin Cook, who despite a season’s worth of nagging injuries still banged for 1691 YR and 19 TDs, and in Bob Beamon-esque fashion shattering Warrick Dunn’s single-season school record by 449 yards. Though in the aftermath of Cook’s myriad hurts last season, Jimbo might put his star runner on a Stephen Strasburg-like “pitch count” in the fall. The OL, inconsistent a year ago, now looms as a potential strength with seven returnees owning starting experience. There are also the usual collection of prime-cut receivers, with a new buzz created by 6'5 RS frosh Auden Tate, who reminded more than a few of former FSU star (and current Carolina Panther) Kelvin Benjamin after catching 6 passes for 100 yards and a pair of TDs in the spring game. Established targets Travis Rudolph (59 catches LY), Jesus Wilson (58 catches a year ago) and 5'8 waterbug Kermit Whitfield (57 catches in 2015) all remain in the fold.
Meanwhile, DE DeMarcus Walker’s decision to return to Tallahassee for his senior year rather than go early into last April’s NFL Draft means the FSU “D” likely doesn’t take a step back from last year’s platoon that ranked 9th nationally in scoring (17.5 ppg). Along with soph Josh Sweat, a former five-star recruit, Nole d.c. Charles Kelly has an elite pair of defensive ends at his disposal in FSU’s 4-2-5 alignments.
If there is one area of concern on the “D” it is probably at the LB spots, where last year’s starters Reggie Northrup (this summer in the NFL Redskins’ camp) and Terrance Smith have moved on. All eyes are on projected starter Matthew Thomas, who was suspended for half of the 2014 season and ineligible for all of 2015 but used spring work to convince Jimbo and Kelly that he is ready to contribute. And since FSU is never caught short of DBs, the departure of NFL first-round draft pick CB Jalen Ramsey (Jags) is not causing much concern, as much-hyped sophs Tavarus McFadden and Marcus Lewis figure to make their own headlines across the field from sr. CB Marquez White. Experience fills the secondary.
Jimbo does have some concerns regarding his kickers, who both graduated after last season, though it appears as if a new Aguayo, Ricky, is going to take the spot of brother Luis (tabbed by the Bucs in the 2nd round of the NFL Draft) as the PK, with fellow frosh Logan Taylor expected to win the punting job.
We will have a pretty good idea by the end of September if Jimbo has another serious national contender on his hands after a Labor Day clash in Orlando vs. Hugh Freeze’s Ole Miss, and tricky mid-September dates at Louisville and South Florida in back-to-back weeks. Other banana peels (North Carolina, at Miami, at Florida) dot the rest of the slate but the most focus is likely on the October 29 showdown vs. Clemson at Doak Campbell. As is the case with the Tigers, FSU has an off week prior. Early “Games of the Year” numbers from Tony Miller at the Las Vegas Golden Nugget have the Noles as 3 1/2-point favorites for that headliner. It’s worth noting that Clemson a year ago was the only ACC team to beat Jimbo the past three seasons. Still, considering the overall strength of this schedule, Jimbo will be doing quite well to have FSU in Final Four contention. It will take some work to avoid every trap door on this challenging slate.
Spreads were adjusting wildly for the Noles the past few years, first when they first covered almost every number in sight, no matter how high, in the 2013 title season (11-2 vs. line) before being overpriced and almost losing every spread decision (3-11 vs. number) in 2014. Last year was a bit more calm, but 2014 in particular highlights the risk of being overpriced, of which FSU is always susceptible. Doak Campbell, where FSU dipped to 1-6 vs. the line in 2014, again resembled the fortress it was in 2013 (when the Noles were 6-0 vs. the line at home) as Jimbo covered 5 of 7 at home a year ago.
They’ve been deviating from the script the past couple of seasons at Louisville (2015 SU 8-5; ATS 7-6; O/U 6-7), as the Cardinals have been succeeding more with their defense than offense. That wasn’t supposed to be part of the plot when HC Bobby Petrino was inked for a second tour of duty at the ‘Ville in 2014. Remember, Petrino’s previous Cardinal editions had set all sorts of school offensive records a decade before, so seat belts seemed to be required extras at Papa John’s Stadium for Petrino’s return.
To this point, however, it hasn’t quite worked that way. Thought most of our ACC sources believe we’ll see a team with the more familiar Petrino look this season.
Last year, Rick Pitino and other locals weren’t sure what they were seeing early in the season when the Cards stumbled to a 0-3 break out of the gate. Though, in retrospect, competitive losses to Auburn, ascending Houston, and eventual national finalist Clemson were nothing to be ashamed about. By the end of the season, however, Petrino had the Cards back on track, and the ‘Ville would enter the offseason with a spring in its step after a Music City Bowl win over SEC Texas A&M.
This summer, excitement is off the charts in Derby Town for the “old style” Petrino offense to reappear, thanks mostly to the emergence of electric QB Lamar Jackson, who as a frosh would take command of the offense at midseason and show Kentucky & A&M his game-breaking skills at the end of the campaign. (Jackson totaled 227 pass yards and 226 rush yards, and four TDs, in the bowl win over the Ags.) When the dust cleared Jackson had passed for 1840 yards and 12 TDs and ran for another 960 yards, giving hope to some Cards backers that Jackson could be the ‘Ville version of Deshaun Watson at Clemson. Though Jackson’s passing skills (only 54.6% last season) need to improve to make that comparison, there’s reason to believe he is progressing toward the Watson level after completing 24 of 29 passes good for eight TDs (yep, 8 TDs!) in an encouraging spring game showcase.
Petrino, however, would like his new star to be a bit more judicious in his escapes from the pocket, at least when it comes to taking hits from defenders. A lanky 6'3, Jackson goes under 200 pounds and is being encouraged by Petrino to avoid the sorts of hits he routinely absorbed a year ago. Yet Jackson was forced to run often last season because the OL struggled in pass protection (ranking second-to-last nationally in sacks allowed). Fortunately, after relying upon two frosh and a juco in 2015, the forward wall has a more experienced look in 2016.
Overall, Petrino returns 16 starters from the Music City Bowl winners, including every important receiver from the 2015 arsenal. There is trust in sr. wideouts Jamar Staples (the acknowledged deep threat after gaining 17.2 yards per catch last fall) and the sure-handed James Quick, LY’s leading Card receiver with 39 catches who made a comfortable transition to the slot in spring. The top three RBs also return, led by punishing sr. Brandon Radcliff (1371 YR the past two seasons), though the x-factor in the mix is former QB Reggie Bonnafon, who was part of experiments at RB & WR in spring as Petrino looks for ways to take advantage of his athleticism.
The aforementioned, pleasant surprise “D” (ranked 18th a year ago) should continue to perform well for d.c. Todd Grantham, who was pleased that several stalwarts that included three of the platoon’s four top tacklers from 2015 (LBs Keith Kelsey & Devonte Fields and FS Josh Harvey-Clemons) all decided to return rather than declare early for the NFL Draft last April.
Replacing star DT Sheldon Rankins, a first-round pick of the New Orleans Saints, might be a challenge, though Grantham believes sr. DT DeAngelo Brown should fill the Rankins role as the primary run-stuffer. Playmakers abound on the stop unit, including former TCU transfer LB Devonte Fields, all of the way back from injury after recording 11 sacks a year ago. The starting secondary also returns en masse, led by ball-hawking safeties Clemons and Chucky Wilson.
The ‘Ville is expected to be quite good this fall, but unfortunately plays in the same half of the ACC as heavyweights Clemson and Florida State. The Cards have come close to the Tigers the past two seasons and will trek to Death Valley on October 1, but by that point we’ll already have an idea how serious a contender Petrino has on his hands because Florida State visits Papa John’s in mid-September. A win over the Noles and it might be Derby Day in Louisville all over again with the mint juleps flowing. Whatever happens early, the Cards will also want to be hitting the tape with some momentum with tricky intersectionals vs. Houston and state rival Kentucky closing out the regular-season slate.
Spread-wise, Petrino has yet to rediscover some of his old magic vs. the number, as the Cards have been a modest 7-6 vs. the line each of the past two seasons. The locals have also not been too thrilled about the 5-7 spread mark that span at Papa John’s. Remember, however, that Petrino’s last three ‘Ville teams from his first stint went 25-12 vs. the line between 2004-06.
It wasn’t quite a false alarm of the magnitude of the Comet Kahoutek (feel free to check the Wikipedia reference), but last season’s performance by NC State (2015 SU 7-8; ATS 7-6; O/U 7–6) was a significant letdown nonetheless. Regarded as an intriguing longshot to enter the national discussion after an encouraging performance and St. Pete Bowl win in 2014, and with former Florida transfer QB Jacoby Brissett considered a chic Heisman darkhorse, the Wolfpack would instead drop every key game on the schedule after racing to a 4-0 start against soft non-conference opposition. Things were never the same for NCS after a 20-13 home loss to Louisville on October 3 sent the season on a downward trajectory.
Bowl qualification was always a low bar to clear considering the September slate, and NCS continued the disappointment theme when whipped by Mississippi State, 51-28, in Charlotte’s Belk Bowl, completing a wholly unsatisfying campaign.
Fourth-year HC Dave Doeren, realizing that adjustments were needed, made expected staff changes, including dismissal of old friend o.c. Matt Canada (who would then land at Pitt) and inking of Boise State o.c. Eliah Drinkwitz, one of the many branches of the Gus Malzahn coaching tree. Thus, the Big Ten-style offense preferred by Canada (and, until this year, by Doeren, who has Wisconsin roots) will be replaced by a more uptempo version preferred by Drinkwitz, whose Boise offense ranked 15th nationally a year ago despite using a true frosh at QB (Brett Rypien) most of the season.
More specifically, Drinkwitz is expected to help a downfield passing game that was erratic at best with Brissett, but there are questions at QB with raw soph Jalan McClendon running first string out of spring. McClendon has a big arm but little experience after throwing only 14 passes in a few relief appearances behind Brissett last season. If McClendon falters, RS frosh Jakobi Meyers is the next option.
If McClendon clicks, however, the Pack might have something special, because NCS can run the ball with returnees Matt Dayes (well on his way to 1000 YR before a midseason foot injury in 2015) and Jaylen Samuels, who is listed as a TE but is effectively a RB who led the Pack with 16 TDs a year ago as well as catching a team-best 65 passes. Touted RS frosh Johnny Frazier provides another potentially exciting infantry alternative.
Meanwhile, expect sr. WR Jumichael Ramos (34 catches LY) to be utilized more often, and there is some buzz in Raleigh that frosh TE Thaddeus Moss, son of legendary WR Randy Moss, has a chance to make an immediate contribution, especially with his ability to go deep. The OL, which has been has a recent strength but must replace three starters, should get a boost from South Alabama grad transfer Joseph Scelfo, expected to step in immediately at the center position. Another transfer to watch is PK Connor Haskins from D-II UNC-Pembroke, who might beat out incumbent soph PG Kyle Bambard, who missed 7 of his 14 FG tries last season.
Defensive numbers did not look too bad last season but those also deceive, as the Pack was almost helpless to stop Clemson, North Carolina, and bowl foe Mississippi State after midseason, allowing 51 ppg to those three foes. Still, this is far from the worst stop unit in the ACC, and vet d.c. Dave Huxtable has eight starters back in the fold from a 4-2-5 “D” that ranked 29th nationally (deceiving or not) a year.
The strength of the platoon is likely up front, where three starters and most of the rotation pieces are back along a robust DL featuring DEs Bradley Chubb and Darian Roseboro, who combined for 9.5 sacks in 2015. There is also experience at the LB spots, but Huxtable needs more consistency from jrs. Jerod Fernandez and Airius Moore, who were learning on the job a year ago.
The secondary, turned inside-out by potent foes late in the season, is an area of concern, especially since LY’s top cover man, CB Juston Burris, has moved on the NFL Jets, who made him their fourth-round draft pick. Some ACC observers believe the pass coverage dropped off considerably a year ago after the midseason hamstring injury to S Shawn Boone, who returns for his junior season. The staff is bullish on the coverage skills of fifth-year sr. Niles Clark, who emerged as the top nickel-back option in spring.
The early schedule is a bit tougher than last season because of the presence of dangerous East Carolina on Sept. 10, but the Pack’s fate is likely determined by a brutal five-game midseason slate that includes games at Clemson and Louisville and home vs. Notre Dame and Florida State. If QB McClendon proves a quick study in the new Drinkwitz offense, perhaps NCS can pull an upset or two, but the challenging slate appears to limit the upside, and another minor bowl visit is probably the best the Pack can do.
Spread-wise, partly because of several soft touches in the non-conference slate, the Pack has covered 7 of its last 8 vs. non-ACC foes. Alarmingly last season, however, NCS dropped all five of its spread decisions as a dog after covering 5 of 7 getting points in 2014.
Safe to say they’ve never seen anything like they’re going to experience this fall at Syracuse (2015 SU 4-8; ATS 8-4; O/U 10-2). Video football deluxe arrives in the Carrier Dome for the first time with new HC Dino Babers, whose teams posted gaudy offensive numbers at Eastern Illinois and Bowling Green the past four seasons. On the fast track upward in the coaching ranks, Babers didn’t stay too long at either locale before landing in the big-time of the ACC.
The vision of the Orange with a high-tech attack takes some getting used to, especially after the struggles of the recent Scott Shafer teams, including last season when the ‘Cuse would rank a sickly 118th in total offense. This is also the school of Jim Brown, Ernie Davis, Jim Nance, Floyd Little, and Larry Csonka, great runners all, and the stereotype Syracuse teams of the Ben Schwartzwalder era wound pound foes into submission with their physicality. Though the best Schwartzwalder teams usually had a sneaky-good passing element, such as the 1959 national title team that suffocated foes on defense (allowing only 193 yards rushing...all season!), but saw QB Dave Sarette throw 10 TD passes...not bad for that era.
If the Babers track record holds, however, there is not going to be much similarity between Sarette, Wally Mahle, Rick Cassata, Paul Paolisso, and other Schwartzwalder ‘Cuse QBs from the distant past and this year’s projected starter, soph Eric Dungey, who flashed some upside after taking over the starting role in the middle of last season. That was before a series of helmet-to-helmet hits, mostly caused by Dungey’s reckless style, resulted in concussions and absence from the final three games. In his short stint as the starter in 2015, however, Dungey passed for 1298 yards and 11 TDs, suggesting he can detonate the Babers offense, as appeared to be the case in spring. Tasked with operating the Babers hurry-up spread, Dungey is also going to have to learn a bit of discretion, and not willingly take on defenders head-on when scrambling out of the pocket.
A main development in spring was soph RB Dontae Strickland supplanting 2015 rush leader Jordan Fredericks (607 YR LY) as the starter. Strickland’s versatility, and ability to run inside or outside, impressed Babers. Touted jr. WR Steve Ishmael (39 catches LY) might finally be ready to explode after suffering through the various QB injuries and different offenses of the past two seasons. The OL remains a question with only two returnees who have started games, but this unit was going to have to learn the new offense from scratch anyway, and Babers reportedly likes the athleticism up front.
Keep in mind that Dino’s Bowling Green offense scored 42 ppg to rank sixth nationally a year ago and ranked in the top five in passing and total offense. Jim Boeheim’s hoopsters are not going to be the only Syracuse team scoring points in the coming months at Carrier Dome.
The defense is undergoing a similar overhaul as it adjusts to the Tampa-2 schemes preached by Babers and new d.c. Brian Ward. Whereas Babers predecessor Shafer wanted smaller, more aggressive defenders, Babers and Ward prefer bigger, longer athletes who can thrive in their zone coverages.
The system relies on four-man pressure up front and ball-hawking Lbs and Dbs. The DTs are young and promising with soph Keyon Samuels a returning starter, though there is zero playing experience at the DE position, which is why Delaware State grad transfer DE Gabe Sherrod and perhaps some of the touted frosh recruits are likely to make an impact this fall. The LB corps was limited by injuries in spring but does return all three starters led by SLB Paris Bennett. Three starters are also back in the secondary, though improvement is needed after the Orange ranked 100th nationally vs. the pass. Though there is experience on the corners featuring jr. Corey Winfield, the safety group struggled with the new schemes in spring despite the return of starters Chauncey Scissum and Antwan Cordy.
After likely beating the toothpaste out of nearby Colgate in the opener, things get tough in a hurry for Babers, with dangerous Louisville and South Florida visiting the Carrier Dome, and a trip to Notre Dame on October 1. If the Babers systems are works in progress throughout the season, as many ACC observers expect, don’t be surprised by a slow start. If things fall into place and QB Dungey stays in one piece, perhaps the Orange can give Clemson and Florida State a scare in November, but there are few soft spots on this slate beyond the opener, and Babers will be doing very well to get his first ‘Cuse edition into the bowl mix.
Spread-wise, Shafer’s Orange were non-descript until last season when covering 8 of 12, including all six at the Carrier Dome after recording a 1-5 spread mark as host in 2014. Go figure! And after going “under” the last six games in 2014, ‘Cuse was “over” 10-2 last season. While rolling to the MAC title a year ago, note that Bowling Green was 9-3-1 vs. the line for Babers, who left town before the Falcs’ GoDaddy Bowl loss to Georgia Southern.
That wasn’t what they had in mind at Boston College (2015 SU 3-9; PSR 3-7-1; O/U 1-10) when joining the ACC back in 2005. Not only were the Eagles winless in conference play on the gridiron last year, they posted the big donut on the basketball court in ACC play, too. So, for the first time since the 1976-77 season, when TCU accomplished the same feat in the old Southwest Conference, a major college would go winless in conference play in both football and basketball during the same school year.
Talk about dubious!
Yet there was something oddly compelling about the rock ‘em, sock ‘em, neanderthal brand of football played by the Eagles last fall. Despite the stone-age offense that ranked 125th nationally (it can’t get much lower!) at a sluggish 275 ypg, with only Kent Stant and UCF having the ignominy of ranking lower, the Eagles stayed in every one of their games last season, including vs. heavyweights such as Florida State, Clemson, and Notre Dame, none able to shake BC until the late going. Credit a rock-ribbed defense that ranked first nationally at 254 ypg for keeping the games competitive and contributing greatly to the throw-back quality of Eagles football, never reflected more than in the time-tunnel games back to 1930s in back-to-back weeks at midseason vs. Duke and Wake Forest in which BC did not concede a TD and allowed a combined 12 points...but still lost both games (by 9-7 & 3-0 scorelines)!
Partly due to injuries, the QB spot was a merry-go-round in 2015 when four signal-callers threw at least 42 passes, and none of those completing better than 52%. Now, for the second time in three seasons, BC HC Steve Addazio is hoping a graduate transfer from the SEC can provide temporary relief at the position.
Two years ago, it was ex-Florida QB Tyler Murphy who provided all of the spark for the offense. This fall, all eyes are on ex-Kentucky QB Patrick Towles, Jim Bunning’s grandson who was hailed as a savior not long ago in Lexington but now looking for redemption in his last spin around the college track, far from home. Note that Towles passed for over 5000 yards and 24 TDs for the Wildcats. When considering that all Eagle QBs combined for 8 TDP in 2015, no wonder Towles is being treated like Tom Brady by the win-starved Eagle faithful.
We are not sure, however, that Addazio did himself any favors by re-enlisting old friend Scott Loeffler as the offensive coordinator. Though Loeffler’s career highlight came when Addazio’s o.c. at Temple, since then he has helped usher in the end of the head coaching careers of Gene Chizik at Auburn and Frank Beamer at Virginia Tech with his often staid play-calling. Perhaps reuniting with Addazio will recall some of the glory, such as it was, for Temple in 2011.
Injuries also depleted the RB position last season, but Addazio hopes for a full recovery by punishing 224-lb. soph Jon Hilliman, who missed almost the entirety of 2015 with a broken foot after gaining 860 YR and scoring 13 TDs as a frosh. Whatever, the infantry must improve upon the measly 3.9 ypc from last year, partly due to an OL that was breaking in five new starters and would struggle with youth and inexperience. Three starters return with hopes than run and pass blocking might improve. Meanwhile, since none of the QBs could pass a year ago, we don’t know what to say about a receiving corps whose leading returnee (jr. WR Thadd Smith) caught all of 12 passes a season ago. Smith, however, is considered a possible deep threat, and the Loeffler offense is likely to make better use of soph TE Tommy Sweeney, who impressed in spring. Soph Colton Lichtenberg might also provide an answer at PK after hitting a couple of 43-yard FGs in late-season games vs. Notre Dame and Syracuse.
With offensive upgrades far from certain, it will once again be up to the “D” to stonewall foes. Coordinator Don Brown was stolen from Addazio by Jim Harbaugh at Michigan, so Addazio did his own poaching from the Big Ten and lured vet coach Jim Reid, with more than 40 years of coaching experience and most recently the LB coach for Kirk Ferentz at Iowa. Expect a similar look from the Eagles “D” this fall with six starters and several rotation pieces back in the fold from a year ago.
Senior Matt Milano appears to be next in line in BC’s linebacker tradition after recording 17.5 tackles for loss a year ago, along with 6.5 sacks. Cat-quick DE Harold Landry is a disruptive force on the line who recorded 4.5 sacks and countless QB hurries a year ago. The spring “mover” was soph DE Zach Allen, who was flying all over the field and might be poised for a breakout this fall.
The sticky secondary loses FS Justin Simmons, taken by the Broncos in the NFL Draft, but CBs Kamrin Moore and Isaac Yiadom hung with some of the best wideouts in the ACC a year ago, and sr. SS John Johnson is a notorious big hitter.
Like last season, when the Eagles won all of their non-ACC games (including a 76-0, weather-shortened thumper over Howard, not endearing the Eagles to Bison alum and Fox TV play-by-play man Gus Johnson), the intersectional slate is soft (UMass, Bob Beckel’s alma mater Wagner, and Buffalo), so if BC can steal a few wins in ACC play it could get in the frame for a minor bowl. Remember, however, the Eagles couldn’t win any in league play last season, and Clemson, Florida State, and Louisville are all still on the slate. Having a legit QB in Towles and likely a credible passing game makes improvement likely, but we still suspect BC lands short of bowl qualification.
The first thing to note about the Eagle results last season was a 10-1 mark to the “under” which should not come as much of a surprise even as the “totals” dropped into the mid 30s as the season progressed. Many weeks, the BC scorleine doin’t even come remotely close. Alumni Stadium also proved no benefit as BC dropped all six of its spread decisions at home (the Howard fiasco was a “no play” when it was mercifully suspended due to lightning storms). Addazio, however, did fashion winning spread marks his first two seasons on the job in Chestnut Hill, so we are not ready to project the Eagles as another go-against outfit this fall.
At some point, incremental progress is not going to be enough for HC Dave Clawson to keep his job at Wake Forest (2015 SU 3-9; ATS 6-6; O/U 6-6). Though for the moment, Demon Deacon fans are mollifying themselves by reckoning that four losses by eight points or fewer last season is a sign of progress. Still, Clawson is rapidly approaching the point where the win totals are going to have to increase, because even the Wake Forest fans have only so much patience.
Fortunately for Clawson, he is not coaching in an intense pressure-cooker, and has not had to pay any consequences (at least yet) for back-to-back 3-9 campaigns. But Clawson’s former rep as a creative offensive mind has taken quite a hit the past two years in Winston-Salem. Last season the Demon Deacons were often unwatchable as the offense coughed and wheezed to a measly 17 ppg, ranking a poor 119th nationally. What was labeled as a running game was more impotent, ranking 122nd. And even the 3-9 SU mark could have been worse, with two of the wins by three points each vs. Army and Boston College, and the Eagles ending the game on the Deac one-yard-line in the latter after horribly botching a last-minute play sequence without even getting off a game-tying FG attempt!
At some point, those results have to improve, because the Deacon fans have had a taste of winning in recent memory. Though it is getting to be a good while since the glory days of the Jim Grobe era. Remember, the Deacs actually won the ACC in 2006 and qualified for the BCS Orange Bowl. Grobe took Wake to bowls four times in a six-season span between 2006-11, but the Deacs haven’t been bowling since. Though Clawson does not have to win titles to keep the Wake fan base from beating the war drums, he does need an occasional bowl visit and an entertaining team to reach the low bar of keeping the Deac fans satisfied.
For what it’s worth, the odd set of dynamics that allowed Wake to emerge a decade ago are unlikely to repeat any time soon. For a short while, there was a power vacuum created in the ACC by Miami’s fade in the later stages of the Larry Coker era, and Florida State’s downturn toward the end of the Bobby Bowden years. Clemson reached a plateau with Tommy Bowden, North Carolina was spinning its wheels, and Virginia Tech had slipped from some of its national title-contending years. So, voila, into the void slipped Wake, with a shrewd coach in Grobe and helped by a couple of recruiting classes that uncovered some unexpected gems. Suddenly the Deacs were a force to be reckoned with, and the clever Grobe was able to keep Wake relevant longer than it probably should have been.
Unfortunately for the Deacs, some of the old order in the ACC has been restored the past few years, and Clawson is running out of time to figure out a way to make his offense competitive. This year could provide an opportunity with nine starters back on the attack end, though given last year’s results we’re not so sure that’s a good thing. Improvement figures to begin along an OL that now has a combined 70 starts under its belt, though it’s worth noting that over the past two Clawson years, only one FBS entry (SMU) has allowed more sacks, and only one (Mike Leach’s pass-happy Washington State) has rushed for fewer yards.
Good protection is a key for jr. QB John Wofford, who reads defenses capably and throws in progression but is not nimble enough to avoid the heavy pressure that has often engulfed him the past two seasons. Wofford and backup QB Kendall Hinton were so under siege a year ago that they often hurried passes that would result in 16 picks, which taken in context is even worse than it looks considered that Wake QBs tossed only 13 TDP a year ago. ACC insiders report that Hinton’s mobility gives him a shot at beating out Wofford for the start in the opener vs. Tulane on September 1.
There is hope that the infantry will have more pop thanks to true frosh RB Cade Carney, the Charlotte Player of the year, and RS frosh Rocky Reid, a Tennessee decommit who impressed in spring. There are plenty of established receiving targets, with soph WR Cortez Lewis (47 catches LY) probably the featured performer, while jr. TE Cam Sergine (100 catches the past two seasons) is one of the ACC’s best.
The Deacs would also hurt themselves badly with a sickly -13 TO margin (ranking 120th) a year ago. It is hard enough for a team like Wake to make a breakthrough when playing error-free; that sort of TO margin makes it almost impossible for the Deacs to ascend. The offense has also not had the luxury of stalling before it hits the red zone and settling for three points, as jr. PK Mike Warren was only 1 for 6 on FGs beyond 40 yards last season.
Seven starters return for a defense that generally held its own last season, though it should be noted that opponents were never in much urgency to score, with the Wake offense not exactly creating a brisk, back-and-forth scoring pace in the games. Four upperclass returning starters are back along the line, with DE Duke Ejiofor a playmaker of note after recording 7.5 sacks.
The questions along the “D” are in the LB corps where two key starters, including All-ACC Brandon Chubb, who will spend this summer in the camp of the NFL L.A. Rams, graduated after last season. This position group will revolve around sr. MLB Marquel Lee, who has led the Deacs in tackles for loss the past two seasons. There is some experience in the 2ndary with srs. and returning starters CB Brad Watson and FS Ryan Janivon, the former second in the ACC in passes defended last season with 18, the latter the career leader in tackles (282) on the team.
The only semi-gimme on the schedule is probably Delaware, especially as the FCS Blue Hens have tailed off in recent years, but Wake can take no other game for granted, including non-league tilts vs. Tulane, Indiana, and Army. The three power teams in the Atlantic (Clemson, FSU, and Louisville) almost surely represent defeats, and Clawson is going to have to hope that seven games at home gives his team a better chance to reach a minor bowl. Pretty soon (though probably not this season) reaching one of those minor bowls will probably be a prerequisite for Clawson to stay on the job, which will become increasingly difficult if the offense continues to sputter.
Spread-wise, Clawson’s Wake has been spunky enough to cover five of its last six highest-point underdog games of 19 points or more. The Deacs are also 9-4 as a double-digit dog for Clawson in what has been Wake’s best spread role the past two seasons.
July 12, 2016
ACC Atlantic Preview
Last year's straight-up, against the spread, and over/under results are included for each team, presented in predicted order of finish...
So much for any talk that Clemson (2015 SU 14-1; ATS 8-5-2; O/U 9-6) might have been a fluke last season. Ask Alabama HC Nick Saban, who looked as relieved after January’s BCS title escape over the Tigers as he might after completing the Boston Marathon.
Saban had reason to feel thankful, because the Crimson Tide could not stop Clemson, or more specifically then-soph QB Deshaun Watson, who passed and ran Bama silly in the title game to the tune of 478 total yards. Only a series of big plays by the Tide allowed Saban to escape with a 45-40 win. ACC insiders, however, suggest that near-miss is likely to act as season-long motivation for Watson and the Tigers to return to the title game and this time get it right. Though getting back to the Final Four for HC Dabo Swinney’s troops might hinge upon a late-October trip to Tallahassee...more on that potential game of the year vs. Florida State in a moment.
In the meantime, all eyes are on Watson, who enters the fall as one of top contenders for the Heisman Trophy (along with Stanford’s Christian McCaffrey and LSU’s Leonard Fournette) after a bang-up 2015 season in which he passed for 4104 yards and 35 TDs and ran for another 1105 yards and 12 TDs, redefining the meaning of “dual-threat QB” in the process. Though Watson’s 13 picks were on the high side, Swinney and co.-o.c.’s Tony Elliott and Jeff Scott can live with a few mistakes if Watson spends the rest of his time making big plays. Scarier for Clemson foes is the fact Watson returns several established complementary weapons among the eight returning starters on the attack end, and that doesn’t even include WR Mike Williams, who caught 1030 yards worth of passes as a soph in 2014 before redshirting a year ago due to a neck injury in the opener vs. Wofford. Opposing secondaries already had to worry about deep threat jr. Artavis Scott, who caught 93 passes a year ago.
Had Clemson beaten Bama, RB Wayne Gallman might have decided to turn pro instead of return for one more chance at the brass ring. Indeed, Gallman’s decision might have been one of the most impactful in all of college football in the offseason, as his 1527 YR a year ago makes the Tiger offense appear irresistible. A powerful, violent runner, Gallman offers the perfect diversion to Watson and suggests that Clemson can probably improve upon last year’s hefty 38.5 ppg scoring. Indeed, this season, Clemson could threaten to match the points scored by Brad Brownell’s basketball Tigers. The OL replaces two starters but there is no reason to believe it won’t be as good as a year ago, especially with soph LT Mitch Hyatt looking like a potential future NFL first-round pick and sr. C Jay Guillermo on many preseason All-America teams.
Replacing seven starters from last year’s nasty defense is not as daunting a task as it might seem after d.c. Brent Venables was able to fill in for the nine starters (many of those on to the NFL) he had to replace after 2014. Even so, last year’s Tigers ranked tenth nationally in total defense, so despite losing another collection to the NFL (led by DEs Shaq Lawson & Kevin Dodd & CB Mackensie Alexander), most ACC observers are not expecting much dropoff, though there are some questions in the secondary, where sr. CB Cordrea Tankersley is the only returning starter. The Tigers did allow a few too many big plays last season (including against Bama in the title game), and foes might test Clemson deep as the Tigers replace their NFL-draftee starting safeties T.J. Green (Colts) and Jayron Kearse (Vikings).
There has been a long line of impressive sack artists at Clemson, and ACC sources say Venables is high on DEs soph Austin Bryant and RS frosh Clelin Ferrell to continue the tradition. The highest-ranked player in the Tigers’ 2016 recruiting haul is monstrous, 340-lb. 5-star DT Dexter Lawrence. Senior WLB Ben Boulware is the leading returning tackler and perfect leader for the platoon, while soph MLB Kendall Joseph appears ticketed for stardom.
Oh yes, the schedule. Looking ahead to the ACC Atlantic showdown vs. Florida State on October 29 at Doak Campbell Stadium might be unavoidable, and the slate sets up perfectly for the Tigers, with a week off before that battle royale. There is, however, a potential banana peel right off of the bat in the all-Tiger opener at Auburn that could damage the Final Four hopes before Labor Day. Still, that showdown vs. the Seminoles is the only game where the Tigers are being projected as an underdog (the Las Vegas Golden Nugget opened FSU -3 ½ in its summer “Games of the Year” list). Avoid the other speed bumps and win that one vs. the Noles and it is likely full-steam ahead to another Final Four berth.
Spread-wise, after some bowl failures earlier in his career, note that Dabo has excelled lately in the postseason, covering five straight, including a pair of thumpers over Oklahoma the past two seasons, as well as SU wins vs. LSU and Ohio State since 2012. Be careful, however, as Clemson is apt to once again be saddled with some heavy pointspread premiums, and the Tigers covered only 1 of 4 laying 20 or more a season ago (the W vs. Wofford), and that mark is 1-6 the last seven dating to 2014.
In retrospect, Florida State (2015 SU 10-3; ATS 8-5; O/U 6-7) did pretty well to win 10 games last season. Consider that the OL was inconsistent and injury-plagued, star RB Dalvin Cook played hurt almost the entire season, while the inability to establish a vertical passing game allowed opponents to crowd the line of scrimmage. No matter, Seminole Nation wanted to hear none of that after a painful 38-24 Peach Bowl loss to Houston would end the campaign on a sour note and erase the good taste of the 27-2 win at Florida to close the regular season.
Still, let’s not forget that it was a rebuilding year (at least by FSU standards) in Tallahassee, and qualifying for a New Year’s Six date suggests just how deep of a talent reservoir HC Jimbo Fisher oversees these days at Doak Campbell Stadium. Fifteen starters, including nine on offense, return to the fold for this fall, creating an extra buzz during breakfast at the Waffle Houses throughout the Florida Panhandle.
For the Noles to make another serious national title bid as they did in 2013 & ‘14, however, might require more consistency at the QB position. Remember, Heisman winner Jameis Winston was quite the catalyst for those two FSU editions, but no one came close to filling that role a year ago, especially after Notre Dame transfer Everett Golson went down at midseason. Backup Sean Maguire, thrown into the fire in the Clemson game and in the pilot seat down the stretch, has limitations, so FSU backers were not particularly bothered that Maguire would sit out spring after ankle surgery, giving RS frosh Deondre Francois and early enrollee Malik Henry early auditions for the job. Both fared well enough to be considered in the race when the Noles reconvene for fall camp, and each has a higher ceiling than Maguire, whose strength is that of a game-manager more than a playmaker. How this situation sorts itself out will likely determine how far FSU progresses in the fall.
Comfort for whichever QB is on the field comes with slashing jr. RB Dalvin Cook, who despite a season’s worth of nagging injuries still banged for 1691 YR and 19 TDs, and in Bob Beamon-esque fashion shattering Warrick Dunn’s single-season school record by 449 yards. Though in the aftermath of Cook’s myriad hurts last season, Jimbo might put his star runner on a Stephen Strasburg-like “pitch count” in the fall. The OL, inconsistent a year ago, now looms as a potential strength with seven returnees owning starting experience. There are also the usual collection of prime-cut receivers, with a new buzz created by 6'5 RS frosh Auden Tate, who reminded more than a few of former FSU star (and current Carolina Panther) Kelvin Benjamin after catching 6 passes for 100 yards and a pair of TDs in the spring game. Established targets Travis Rudolph (59 catches LY), Jesus Wilson (58 catches a year ago) and 5'8 waterbug Kermit Whitfield (57 catches in 2015) all remain in the fold.
Meanwhile, DE DeMarcus Walker’s decision to return to Tallahassee for his senior year rather than go early into last April’s NFL Draft means the FSU “D” likely doesn’t take a step back from last year’s platoon that ranked 9th nationally in scoring (17.5 ppg). Along with soph Josh Sweat, a former five-star recruit, Nole d.c. Charles Kelly has an elite pair of defensive ends at his disposal in FSU’s 4-2-5 alignments.
If there is one area of concern on the “D” it is probably at the LB spots, where last year’s starters Reggie Northrup (this summer in the NFL Redskins’ camp) and Terrance Smith have moved on. All eyes are on projected starter Matthew Thomas, who was suspended for half of the 2014 season and ineligible for all of 2015 but used spring work to convince Jimbo and Kelly that he is ready to contribute. And since FSU is never caught short of DBs, the departure of NFL first-round draft pick CB Jalen Ramsey (Jags) is not causing much concern, as much-hyped sophs Tavarus McFadden and Marcus Lewis figure to make their own headlines across the field from sr. CB Marquez White. Experience fills the secondary.
Jimbo does have some concerns regarding his kickers, who both graduated after last season, though it appears as if a new Aguayo, Ricky, is going to take the spot of brother Luis (tabbed by the Bucs in the 2nd round of the NFL Draft) as the PK, with fellow frosh Logan Taylor expected to win the punting job.
We will have a pretty good idea by the end of September if Jimbo has another serious national contender on his hands after a Labor Day clash in Orlando vs. Hugh Freeze’s Ole Miss, and tricky mid-September dates at Louisville and South Florida in back-to-back weeks. Other banana peels (North Carolina, at Miami, at Florida) dot the rest of the slate but the most focus is likely on the October 29 showdown vs. Clemson at Doak Campbell. As is the case with the Tigers, FSU has an off week prior. Early “Games of the Year” numbers from Tony Miller at the Las Vegas Golden Nugget have the Noles as 3 1/2-point favorites for that headliner. It’s worth noting that Clemson a year ago was the only ACC team to beat Jimbo the past three seasons. Still, considering the overall strength of this schedule, Jimbo will be doing quite well to have FSU in Final Four contention. It will take some work to avoid every trap door on this challenging slate.
Spreads were adjusting wildly for the Noles the past few years, first when they first covered almost every number in sight, no matter how high, in the 2013 title season (11-2 vs. line) before being overpriced and almost losing every spread decision (3-11 vs. number) in 2014. Last year was a bit more calm, but 2014 in particular highlights the risk of being overpriced, of which FSU is always susceptible. Doak Campbell, where FSU dipped to 1-6 vs. the line in 2014, again resembled the fortress it was in 2013 (when the Noles were 6-0 vs. the line at home) as Jimbo covered 5 of 7 at home a year ago.
They’ve been deviating from the script the past couple of seasons at Louisville (2015 SU 8-5; ATS 7-6; O/U 6-7), as the Cardinals have been succeeding more with their defense than offense. That wasn’t supposed to be part of the plot when HC Bobby Petrino was inked for a second tour of duty at the ‘Ville in 2014. Remember, Petrino’s previous Cardinal editions had set all sorts of school offensive records a decade before, so seat belts seemed to be required extras at Papa John’s Stadium for Petrino’s return.
To this point, however, it hasn’t quite worked that way. Thought most of our ACC sources believe we’ll see a team with the more familiar Petrino look this season.
Last year, Rick Pitino and other locals weren’t sure what they were seeing early in the season when the Cards stumbled to a 0-3 break out of the gate. Though, in retrospect, competitive losses to Auburn, ascending Houston, and eventual national finalist Clemson were nothing to be ashamed about. By the end of the season, however, Petrino had the Cards back on track, and the ‘Ville would enter the offseason with a spring in its step after a Music City Bowl win over SEC Texas A&M.
This summer, excitement is off the charts in Derby Town for the “old style” Petrino offense to reappear, thanks mostly to the emergence of electric QB Lamar Jackson, who as a frosh would take command of the offense at midseason and show Kentucky & A&M his game-breaking skills at the end of the campaign. (Jackson totaled 227 pass yards and 226 rush yards, and four TDs, in the bowl win over the Ags.) When the dust cleared Jackson had passed for 1840 yards and 12 TDs and ran for another 960 yards, giving hope to some Cards backers that Jackson could be the ‘Ville version of Deshaun Watson at Clemson. Though Jackson’s passing skills (only 54.6% last season) need to improve to make that comparison, there’s reason to believe he is progressing toward the Watson level after completing 24 of 29 passes good for eight TDs (yep, 8 TDs!) in an encouraging spring game showcase.
Petrino, however, would like his new star to be a bit more judicious in his escapes from the pocket, at least when it comes to taking hits from defenders. A lanky 6'3, Jackson goes under 200 pounds and is being encouraged by Petrino to avoid the sorts of hits he routinely absorbed a year ago. Yet Jackson was forced to run often last season because the OL struggled in pass protection (ranking second-to-last nationally in sacks allowed). Fortunately, after relying upon two frosh and a juco in 2015, the forward wall has a more experienced look in 2016.
Overall, Petrino returns 16 starters from the Music City Bowl winners, including every important receiver from the 2015 arsenal. There is trust in sr. wideouts Jamar Staples (the acknowledged deep threat after gaining 17.2 yards per catch last fall) and the sure-handed James Quick, LY’s leading Card receiver with 39 catches who made a comfortable transition to the slot in spring. The top three RBs also return, led by punishing sr. Brandon Radcliff (1371 YR the past two seasons), though the x-factor in the mix is former QB Reggie Bonnafon, who was part of experiments at RB & WR in spring as Petrino looks for ways to take advantage of his athleticism.
The aforementioned, pleasant surprise “D” (ranked 18th a year ago) should continue to perform well for d.c. Todd Grantham, who was pleased that several stalwarts that included three of the platoon’s four top tacklers from 2015 (LBs Keith Kelsey & Devonte Fields and FS Josh Harvey-Clemons) all decided to return rather than declare early for the NFL Draft last April.
Replacing star DT Sheldon Rankins, a first-round pick of the New Orleans Saints, might be a challenge, though Grantham believes sr. DT DeAngelo Brown should fill the Rankins role as the primary run-stuffer. Playmakers abound on the stop unit, including former TCU transfer LB Devonte Fields, all of the way back from injury after recording 11 sacks a year ago. The starting secondary also returns en masse, led by ball-hawking safeties Clemons and Chucky Wilson.
The ‘Ville is expected to be quite good this fall, but unfortunately plays in the same half of the ACC as heavyweights Clemson and Florida State. The Cards have come close to the Tigers the past two seasons and will trek to Death Valley on October 1, but by that point we’ll already have an idea how serious a contender Petrino has on his hands because Florida State visits Papa John’s in mid-September. A win over the Noles and it might be Derby Day in Louisville all over again with the mint juleps flowing. Whatever happens early, the Cards will also want to be hitting the tape with some momentum with tricky intersectionals vs. Houston and state rival Kentucky closing out the regular-season slate.
Spread-wise, Petrino has yet to rediscover some of his old magic vs. the number, as the Cards have been a modest 7-6 vs. the line each of the past two seasons. The locals have also not been too thrilled about the 5-7 spread mark that span at Papa John’s. Remember, however, that Petrino’s last three ‘Ville teams from his first stint went 25-12 vs. the line between 2004-06.
It wasn’t quite a false alarm of the magnitude of the Comet Kahoutek (feel free to check the Wikipedia reference), but last season’s performance by NC State (2015 SU 7-8; ATS 7-6; O/U 7–6) was a significant letdown nonetheless. Regarded as an intriguing longshot to enter the national discussion after an encouraging performance and St. Pete Bowl win in 2014, and with former Florida transfer QB Jacoby Brissett considered a chic Heisman darkhorse, the Wolfpack would instead drop every key game on the schedule after racing to a 4-0 start against soft non-conference opposition. Things were never the same for NCS after a 20-13 home loss to Louisville on October 3 sent the season on a downward trajectory.
Bowl qualification was always a low bar to clear considering the September slate, and NCS continued the disappointment theme when whipped by Mississippi State, 51-28, in Charlotte’s Belk Bowl, completing a wholly unsatisfying campaign.
Fourth-year HC Dave Doeren, realizing that adjustments were needed, made expected staff changes, including dismissal of old friend o.c. Matt Canada (who would then land at Pitt) and inking of Boise State o.c. Eliah Drinkwitz, one of the many branches of the Gus Malzahn coaching tree. Thus, the Big Ten-style offense preferred by Canada (and, until this year, by Doeren, who has Wisconsin roots) will be replaced by a more uptempo version preferred by Drinkwitz, whose Boise offense ranked 15th nationally a year ago despite using a true frosh at QB (Brett Rypien) most of the season.
More specifically, Drinkwitz is expected to help a downfield passing game that was erratic at best with Brissett, but there are questions at QB with raw soph Jalan McClendon running first string out of spring. McClendon has a big arm but little experience after throwing only 14 passes in a few relief appearances behind Brissett last season. If McClendon falters, RS frosh Jakobi Meyers is the next option.
If McClendon clicks, however, the Pack might have something special, because NCS can run the ball with returnees Matt Dayes (well on his way to 1000 YR before a midseason foot injury in 2015) and Jaylen Samuels, who is listed as a TE but is effectively a RB who led the Pack with 16 TDs a year ago as well as catching a team-best 65 passes. Touted RS frosh Johnny Frazier provides another potentially exciting infantry alternative.
Meanwhile, expect sr. WR Jumichael Ramos (34 catches LY) to be utilized more often, and there is some buzz in Raleigh that frosh TE Thaddeus Moss, son of legendary WR Randy Moss, has a chance to make an immediate contribution, especially with his ability to go deep. The OL, which has been has a recent strength but must replace three starters, should get a boost from South Alabama grad transfer Joseph Scelfo, expected to step in immediately at the center position. Another transfer to watch is PK Connor Haskins from D-II UNC-Pembroke, who might beat out incumbent soph PG Kyle Bambard, who missed 7 of his 14 FG tries last season.
Defensive numbers did not look too bad last season but those also deceive, as the Pack was almost helpless to stop Clemson, North Carolina, and bowl foe Mississippi State after midseason, allowing 51 ppg to those three foes. Still, this is far from the worst stop unit in the ACC, and vet d.c. Dave Huxtable has eight starters back in the fold from a 4-2-5 “D” that ranked 29th nationally (deceiving or not) a year.
The strength of the platoon is likely up front, where three starters and most of the rotation pieces are back along a robust DL featuring DEs Bradley Chubb and Darian Roseboro, who combined for 9.5 sacks in 2015. There is also experience at the LB spots, but Huxtable needs more consistency from jrs. Jerod Fernandez and Airius Moore, who were learning on the job a year ago.
The secondary, turned inside-out by potent foes late in the season, is an area of concern, especially since LY’s top cover man, CB Juston Burris, has moved on the NFL Jets, who made him their fourth-round draft pick. Some ACC observers believe the pass coverage dropped off considerably a year ago after the midseason hamstring injury to S Shawn Boone, who returns for his junior season. The staff is bullish on the coverage skills of fifth-year sr. Niles Clark, who emerged as the top nickel-back option in spring.
The early schedule is a bit tougher than last season because of the presence of dangerous East Carolina on Sept. 10, but the Pack’s fate is likely determined by a brutal five-game midseason slate that includes games at Clemson and Louisville and home vs. Notre Dame and Florida State. If QB McClendon proves a quick study in the new Drinkwitz offense, perhaps NCS can pull an upset or two, but the challenging slate appears to limit the upside, and another minor bowl visit is probably the best the Pack can do.
Spread-wise, partly because of several soft touches in the non-conference slate, the Pack has covered 7 of its last 8 vs. non-ACC foes. Alarmingly last season, however, NCS dropped all five of its spread decisions as a dog after covering 5 of 7 getting points in 2014.
Safe to say they’ve never seen anything like they’re going to experience this fall at Syracuse (2015 SU 4-8; ATS 8-4; O/U 10-2). Video football deluxe arrives in the Carrier Dome for the first time with new HC Dino Babers, whose teams posted gaudy offensive numbers at Eastern Illinois and Bowling Green the past four seasons. On the fast track upward in the coaching ranks, Babers didn’t stay too long at either locale before landing in the big-time of the ACC.
The vision of the Orange with a high-tech attack takes some getting used to, especially after the struggles of the recent Scott Shafer teams, including last season when the ‘Cuse would rank a sickly 118th in total offense. This is also the school of Jim Brown, Ernie Davis, Jim Nance, Floyd Little, and Larry Csonka, great runners all, and the stereotype Syracuse teams of the Ben Schwartzwalder era wound pound foes into submission with their physicality. Though the best Schwartzwalder teams usually had a sneaky-good passing element, such as the 1959 national title team that suffocated foes on defense (allowing only 193 yards rushing...all season!), but saw QB Dave Sarette throw 10 TD passes...not bad for that era.
If the Babers track record holds, however, there is not going to be much similarity between Sarette, Wally Mahle, Rick Cassata, Paul Paolisso, and other Schwartzwalder ‘Cuse QBs from the distant past and this year’s projected starter, soph Eric Dungey, who flashed some upside after taking over the starting role in the middle of last season. That was before a series of helmet-to-helmet hits, mostly caused by Dungey’s reckless style, resulted in concussions and absence from the final three games. In his short stint as the starter in 2015, however, Dungey passed for 1298 yards and 11 TDs, suggesting he can detonate the Babers offense, as appeared to be the case in spring. Tasked with operating the Babers hurry-up spread, Dungey is also going to have to learn a bit of discretion, and not willingly take on defenders head-on when scrambling out of the pocket.
A main development in spring was soph RB Dontae Strickland supplanting 2015 rush leader Jordan Fredericks (607 YR LY) as the starter. Strickland’s versatility, and ability to run inside or outside, impressed Babers. Touted jr. WR Steve Ishmael (39 catches LY) might finally be ready to explode after suffering through the various QB injuries and different offenses of the past two seasons. The OL remains a question with only two returnees who have started games, but this unit was going to have to learn the new offense from scratch anyway, and Babers reportedly likes the athleticism up front.
Keep in mind that Dino’s Bowling Green offense scored 42 ppg to rank sixth nationally a year ago and ranked in the top five in passing and total offense. Jim Boeheim’s hoopsters are not going to be the only Syracuse team scoring points in the coming months at Carrier Dome.
The defense is undergoing a similar overhaul as it adjusts to the Tampa-2 schemes preached by Babers and new d.c. Brian Ward. Whereas Babers predecessor Shafer wanted smaller, more aggressive defenders, Babers and Ward prefer bigger, longer athletes who can thrive in their zone coverages.
The system relies on four-man pressure up front and ball-hawking Lbs and Dbs. The DTs are young and promising with soph Keyon Samuels a returning starter, though there is zero playing experience at the DE position, which is why Delaware State grad transfer DE Gabe Sherrod and perhaps some of the touted frosh recruits are likely to make an impact this fall. The LB corps was limited by injuries in spring but does return all three starters led by SLB Paris Bennett. Three starters are also back in the secondary, though improvement is needed after the Orange ranked 100th nationally vs. the pass. Though there is experience on the corners featuring jr. Corey Winfield, the safety group struggled with the new schemes in spring despite the return of starters Chauncey Scissum and Antwan Cordy.
After likely beating the toothpaste out of nearby Colgate in the opener, things get tough in a hurry for Babers, with dangerous Louisville and South Florida visiting the Carrier Dome, and a trip to Notre Dame on October 1. If the Babers systems are works in progress throughout the season, as many ACC observers expect, don’t be surprised by a slow start. If things fall into place and QB Dungey stays in one piece, perhaps the Orange can give Clemson and Florida State a scare in November, but there are few soft spots on this slate beyond the opener, and Babers will be doing very well to get his first ‘Cuse edition into the bowl mix.
Spread-wise, Shafer’s Orange were non-descript until last season when covering 8 of 12, including all six at the Carrier Dome after recording a 1-5 spread mark as host in 2014. Go figure! And after going “under” the last six games in 2014, ‘Cuse was “over” 10-2 last season. While rolling to the MAC title a year ago, note that Bowling Green was 9-3-1 vs. the line for Babers, who left town before the Falcs’ GoDaddy Bowl loss to Georgia Southern.
That wasn’t what they had in mind at Boston College (2015 SU 3-9; PSR 3-7-1; O/U 1-10) when joining the ACC back in 2005. Not only were the Eagles winless in conference play on the gridiron last year, they posted the big donut on the basketball court in ACC play, too. So, for the first time since the 1976-77 season, when TCU accomplished the same feat in the old Southwest Conference, a major college would go winless in conference play in both football and basketball during the same school year.
Talk about dubious!
Yet there was something oddly compelling about the rock ‘em, sock ‘em, neanderthal brand of football played by the Eagles last fall. Despite the stone-age offense that ranked 125th nationally (it can’t get much lower!) at a sluggish 275 ypg, with only Kent Stant and UCF having the ignominy of ranking lower, the Eagles stayed in every one of their games last season, including vs. heavyweights such as Florida State, Clemson, and Notre Dame, none able to shake BC until the late going. Credit a rock-ribbed defense that ranked first nationally at 254 ypg for keeping the games competitive and contributing greatly to the throw-back quality of Eagles football, never reflected more than in the time-tunnel games back to 1930s in back-to-back weeks at midseason vs. Duke and Wake Forest in which BC did not concede a TD and allowed a combined 12 points...but still lost both games (by 9-7 & 3-0 scorelines)!
Partly due to injuries, the QB spot was a merry-go-round in 2015 when four signal-callers threw at least 42 passes, and none of those completing better than 52%. Now, for the second time in three seasons, BC HC Steve Addazio is hoping a graduate transfer from the SEC can provide temporary relief at the position.
Two years ago, it was ex-Florida QB Tyler Murphy who provided all of the spark for the offense. This fall, all eyes are on ex-Kentucky QB Patrick Towles, Jim Bunning’s grandson who was hailed as a savior not long ago in Lexington but now looking for redemption in his last spin around the college track, far from home. Note that Towles passed for over 5000 yards and 24 TDs for the Wildcats. When considering that all Eagle QBs combined for 8 TDP in 2015, no wonder Towles is being treated like Tom Brady by the win-starved Eagle faithful.
We are not sure, however, that Addazio did himself any favors by re-enlisting old friend Scott Loeffler as the offensive coordinator. Though Loeffler’s career highlight came when Addazio’s o.c. at Temple, since then he has helped usher in the end of the head coaching careers of Gene Chizik at Auburn and Frank Beamer at Virginia Tech with his often staid play-calling. Perhaps reuniting with Addazio will recall some of the glory, such as it was, for Temple in 2011.
Injuries also depleted the RB position last season, but Addazio hopes for a full recovery by punishing 224-lb. soph Jon Hilliman, who missed almost the entirety of 2015 with a broken foot after gaining 860 YR and scoring 13 TDs as a frosh. Whatever, the infantry must improve upon the measly 3.9 ypc from last year, partly due to an OL that was breaking in five new starters and would struggle with youth and inexperience. Three starters return with hopes than run and pass blocking might improve. Meanwhile, since none of the QBs could pass a year ago, we don’t know what to say about a receiving corps whose leading returnee (jr. WR Thadd Smith) caught all of 12 passes a season ago. Smith, however, is considered a possible deep threat, and the Loeffler offense is likely to make better use of soph TE Tommy Sweeney, who impressed in spring. Soph Colton Lichtenberg might also provide an answer at PK after hitting a couple of 43-yard FGs in late-season games vs. Notre Dame and Syracuse.
With offensive upgrades far from certain, it will once again be up to the “D” to stonewall foes. Coordinator Don Brown was stolen from Addazio by Jim Harbaugh at Michigan, so Addazio did his own poaching from the Big Ten and lured vet coach Jim Reid, with more than 40 years of coaching experience and most recently the LB coach for Kirk Ferentz at Iowa. Expect a similar look from the Eagles “D” this fall with six starters and several rotation pieces back in the fold from a year ago.
Senior Matt Milano appears to be next in line in BC’s linebacker tradition after recording 17.5 tackles for loss a year ago, along with 6.5 sacks. Cat-quick DE Harold Landry is a disruptive force on the line who recorded 4.5 sacks and countless QB hurries a year ago. The spring “mover” was soph DE Zach Allen, who was flying all over the field and might be poised for a breakout this fall.
The sticky secondary loses FS Justin Simmons, taken by the Broncos in the NFL Draft, but CBs Kamrin Moore and Isaac Yiadom hung with some of the best wideouts in the ACC a year ago, and sr. SS John Johnson is a notorious big hitter.
Like last season, when the Eagles won all of their non-ACC games (including a 76-0, weather-shortened thumper over Howard, not endearing the Eagles to Bison alum and Fox TV play-by-play man Gus Johnson), the intersectional slate is soft (UMass, Bob Beckel’s alma mater Wagner, and Buffalo), so if BC can steal a few wins in ACC play it could get in the frame for a minor bowl. Remember, however, the Eagles couldn’t win any in league play last season, and Clemson, Florida State, and Louisville are all still on the slate. Having a legit QB in Towles and likely a credible passing game makes improvement likely, but we still suspect BC lands short of bowl qualification.
The first thing to note about the Eagle results last season was a 10-1 mark to the “under” which should not come as much of a surprise even as the “totals” dropped into the mid 30s as the season progressed. Many weeks, the BC scorleine doin’t even come remotely close. Alumni Stadium also proved no benefit as BC dropped all six of its spread decisions at home (the Howard fiasco was a “no play” when it was mercifully suspended due to lightning storms). Addazio, however, did fashion winning spread marks his first two seasons on the job in Chestnut Hill, so we are not ready to project the Eagles as another go-against outfit this fall.
At some point, incremental progress is not going to be enough for HC Dave Clawson to keep his job at Wake Forest (2015 SU 3-9; ATS 6-6; O/U 6-6). Though for the moment, Demon Deacon fans are mollifying themselves by reckoning that four losses by eight points or fewer last season is a sign of progress. Still, Clawson is rapidly approaching the point where the win totals are going to have to increase, because even the Wake Forest fans have only so much patience.
Fortunately for Clawson, he is not coaching in an intense pressure-cooker, and has not had to pay any consequences (at least yet) for back-to-back 3-9 campaigns. But Clawson’s former rep as a creative offensive mind has taken quite a hit the past two years in Winston-Salem. Last season the Demon Deacons were often unwatchable as the offense coughed and wheezed to a measly 17 ppg, ranking a poor 119th nationally. What was labeled as a running game was more impotent, ranking 122nd. And even the 3-9 SU mark could have been worse, with two of the wins by three points each vs. Army and Boston College, and the Eagles ending the game on the Deac one-yard-line in the latter after horribly botching a last-minute play sequence without even getting off a game-tying FG attempt!
At some point, those results have to improve, because the Deacon fans have had a taste of winning in recent memory. Though it is getting to be a good while since the glory days of the Jim Grobe era. Remember, the Deacs actually won the ACC in 2006 and qualified for the BCS Orange Bowl. Grobe took Wake to bowls four times in a six-season span between 2006-11, but the Deacs haven’t been bowling since. Though Clawson does not have to win titles to keep the Wake fan base from beating the war drums, he does need an occasional bowl visit and an entertaining team to reach the low bar of keeping the Deac fans satisfied.
For what it’s worth, the odd set of dynamics that allowed Wake to emerge a decade ago are unlikely to repeat any time soon. For a short while, there was a power vacuum created in the ACC by Miami’s fade in the later stages of the Larry Coker era, and Florida State’s downturn toward the end of the Bobby Bowden years. Clemson reached a plateau with Tommy Bowden, North Carolina was spinning its wheels, and Virginia Tech had slipped from some of its national title-contending years. So, voila, into the void slipped Wake, with a shrewd coach in Grobe and helped by a couple of recruiting classes that uncovered some unexpected gems. Suddenly the Deacs were a force to be reckoned with, and the clever Grobe was able to keep Wake relevant longer than it probably should have been.
Unfortunately for the Deacs, some of the old order in the ACC has been restored the past few years, and Clawson is running out of time to figure out a way to make his offense competitive. This year could provide an opportunity with nine starters back on the attack end, though given last year’s results we’re not so sure that’s a good thing. Improvement figures to begin along an OL that now has a combined 70 starts under its belt, though it’s worth noting that over the past two Clawson years, only one FBS entry (SMU) has allowed more sacks, and only one (Mike Leach’s pass-happy Washington State) has rushed for fewer yards.
Good protection is a key for jr. QB John Wofford, who reads defenses capably and throws in progression but is not nimble enough to avoid the heavy pressure that has often engulfed him the past two seasons. Wofford and backup QB Kendall Hinton were so under siege a year ago that they often hurried passes that would result in 16 picks, which taken in context is even worse than it looks considered that Wake QBs tossed only 13 TDP a year ago. ACC insiders report that Hinton’s mobility gives him a shot at beating out Wofford for the start in the opener vs. Tulane on September 1.
There is hope that the infantry will have more pop thanks to true frosh RB Cade Carney, the Charlotte Player of the year, and RS frosh Rocky Reid, a Tennessee decommit who impressed in spring. There are plenty of established receiving targets, with soph WR Cortez Lewis (47 catches LY) probably the featured performer, while jr. TE Cam Sergine (100 catches the past two seasons) is one of the ACC’s best.
The Deacs would also hurt themselves badly with a sickly -13 TO margin (ranking 120th) a year ago. It is hard enough for a team like Wake to make a breakthrough when playing error-free; that sort of TO margin makes it almost impossible for the Deacs to ascend. The offense has also not had the luxury of stalling before it hits the red zone and settling for three points, as jr. PK Mike Warren was only 1 for 6 on FGs beyond 40 yards last season.
Seven starters return for a defense that generally held its own last season, though it should be noted that opponents were never in much urgency to score, with the Wake offense not exactly creating a brisk, back-and-forth scoring pace in the games. Four upperclass returning starters are back along the line, with DE Duke Ejiofor a playmaker of note after recording 7.5 sacks.
The questions along the “D” are in the LB corps where two key starters, including All-ACC Brandon Chubb, who will spend this summer in the camp of the NFL L.A. Rams, graduated after last season. This position group will revolve around sr. MLB Marquel Lee, who has led the Deacs in tackles for loss the past two seasons. There is some experience in the 2ndary with srs. and returning starters CB Brad Watson and FS Ryan Janivon, the former second in the ACC in passes defended last season with 18, the latter the career leader in tackles (282) on the team.
The only semi-gimme on the schedule is probably Delaware, especially as the FCS Blue Hens have tailed off in recent years, but Wake can take no other game for granted, including non-league tilts vs. Tulane, Indiana, and Army. The three power teams in the Atlantic (Clemson, FSU, and Louisville) almost surely represent defeats, and Clawson is going to have to hope that seven games at home gives his team a better chance to reach a minor bowl. Pretty soon (though probably not this season) reaching one of those minor bowls will probably be a prerequisite for Clawson to stay on the job, which will become increasingly difficult if the offense continues to sputter.
Spread-wise, Clawson’s Wake has been spunky enough to cover five of its last six highest-point underdog games of 19 points or more. The Deacs are also 9-4 as a double-digit dog for Clawson in what has been Wake’s best spread role the past two seasons.
ACC Coastal Outlook
July 12, 2016
ACC Coastal Preview
Last year's straight-up, against the spread, and over/under results are included for each team, presented in predicted order of finish...
The last time a Virginia Tech (2015 SU 7-6, ATS 6-7, O/U 6-7) team was not coached by Frank Beamer, Wayne Gretzky still played for the Edmonton Oilers, Bill Walton played for the Boston Celtics, and Ronald Reagan was not quite halfway thru his second term in the White House. It was December of 1986, New Year’s Eve to be exact, at the Peach Bowl in the old Atlanta-Fulton County Stadium, and the Hokies would win a thriller vs. NC State, 25-24, on PK Chris Kinzer’s 40-yard FG on the final play of the game.
Even with the excitement of the win, it was not an easy time for the VPI program, as HC Bill Dooley, who had served in the dual capacity of AD and HC for nine years, would be leaving the school with a $3.5 million settlement courtesy a breach of contract settlement. Beamer, a former Hokie star player in the late ‘60s, was thus summoned home from Murray State, but would soon be working under sanctions imposed by the NCAA due to recruiting violations on Dooley’s watch. With his job on the line in 1993, Beamer pulled a bowl bid out of his hat, and the rest is history...VPI would soon become a national contender and has been “bowling” every year since.
No matter all of that success, the folks of Blacksburg have been ready for a while to turn the page on the era of Beamer, which had lost momentum in recent years as the coach endured some medical problems as he approached 70 years of age. The bowl streak also barely stayed alive three times in the past four seasons as the noted Beamer defense/special teams recipe lost its bite. Beamer’s hire of o.c. Scott Loeffler also turned sour, and there was talk each year of that campaign being Beamer’s last. Rather than stick around too long as did Joe Paterno and, to a lesser extent Bobby Bowden, Beamer was able to leave on his own terms last December before the decline became too steep. For good measure, Beamer would win his last game, though in uncharacteristic fashion as the Hokies hung on to win a 55-52 shootout over Tulsa in the Independence Bowl.
Though the program has slipped in recent years, a quick recovery is not out of the question, especially with well-regarded new HC Justin Fuente now in the fold. Fuente, who first came to prominence as o.c. for Gary Patterson at TCU, quickly resurrected the Memphis program in recent years before being lured to the hills of western Virginia. Along with him is the same up-tempo spread offense that would score 40 ppg for the Tigers a year ago.
Fuente does not inherit a completely bare cupboard, as eight starters return from a strike force that scored a respectable 31 ppg. Fifth-year sr. QB Brandon Motley played enough last season to throw 11 TDP, but most ACC observers believe Fuente will opt for touted juco Jerod Evans, targeted by Fuente to replace NFL Broncos first-round draft pick Paxton Lynch at Memphis before the job-jumping last December. The 6'4, 235-lb. dual-threat Evans, considered perfect for the spread, will be throwing to Tech’s top three receivers from last season including explosive WR Isaiah Ford, who caught 75 passes good for 11 TDs.
Meanwhile, four starters return along a veteran and accomplished OL that has started a combined 89 games in their Hokie careers. There is experience and depth at the RB spots, with soph Travon McMillian gaining 1155 YR a year ago despite not assuming featured ball-toting duties until mid-October.
For many years, it was assumed that Beamer’s longtime sidekick, d.c. Bud Foster, was the HC-in-waiting, though VPI never installed a formal succession plan. Which prompted Foster to pursue other opportunities in recent seasons. Always, however, Foster would opt to remain in Blacksburg, and Fuente was happy to keep the accomplished Bud on board in the same role for the new regime.
Injuries, youth, and attrition contributed to 2015 being one of the worst defensive performances of the Foster era, and the mere 26 sacks and 10 picks were lows since Bud assumed the reins of the stop unit in 1995. New assistants have imported some fresh ideas but the aggressive Foster schemes are still time-tested and will be utilized again this fall.
There is plenty of experience in the secondary that returns all starters from the 19th-ranked pass defense, though the status of CB Adonis Alexander is up in the air after an offseason arrest and suspension. There are other mainstays, however, in sr. FS Chuck Clark and soph SS Terrell Edmunds. Foster has more perplexing personnel questions in his front seven, especially at the LB spots where Foster could use jr. MLB Andrew Motuapuaka to emerge as a playmaker. ACC sources say Foster likes his options on the line, led by sr. DE Ken Ekanem and his 14 career sacks.
The highlight of the non-conference slate is a unique September 10 date at the massive Bristol Motor Speedway (you’re reading that right) against Tennessee. Attendance records for an eternity could be set in the 160,000-seat venue, which is roughly equidistant from each school. The Hokies also make a first-ever visit to Notre Dame on November 19, but the schedule misses all of the heavyweight asides (Clemson, Florida State, Louisville) from the Atlantic half of the loop. All of which making VPI a very intriguing ACC sleeper, especially if juco QB Evans turns into the sort of leader Fuente expects, and the new coach provides a spark.
Spread-wise, Beamer’s teams experienced a downturn the past few years, and the Hokies have not recorded a winning record vs. the number since 2010. Along the way, Lane Stadium sacrificed its one-time edge, with the Hokies only 8-16-1 vs, the line at home since 2011. Beamer’s teams, long successful in the underdog role, were also just 9-10-1 in that role since 2010. Note that Fuente’s Memphis squads were renowned for their spread success on the road, where they stood 13-6-1 vs. the number their last 20 as a visitor.
Looking for the great escape act of the offseason? Try North Carolina (2015 SUR 11-3; PSR 8-6; O/U 8-6), which didn’t even need FBI Director James Comey to recommend no prosecution from NCAA investigators who seemed to have the Tar Heel basketball and football programs in their gunsights. Where many observers saw careless and reckless behavior and gross negligence in what seemed a clear case of academic fraud, the NCAA instead blinked.
More specifically, in late April, the NCAA issued a new Notice of Allegations against UNC, theoretically taking into account the new allegations involving women's hoops and men's soccer. The soccer and women’s basketball teams figure prominently in the new document. Magically, however, the words "impermissible benefits," "football" and "men's basketball" no longer appear.
So, all NCAA conspiracy theorists, we have found Jerry Tarkanian's Holy Grail: The NCAA is so mad at the Carolina football and hoops teams, it's going to lower the boom on soccer and women’s basketball instead!
Indeed, what initially looked like an insignificant announcement, dumped in between Deflate-gate and Steph Curry's MRI results, actually was quite huge. The amended document (not an amendment, which is a significant semantics differentiation) left more than a few people who know the inner workings of the NCAA more than a little bit stunned. As one person put it via text, "Big win for UNC today."
Because somewhere in the past year, in what most assumed would merely be a reworking of the Notice of Allegations to include the new potential violations, the NCAA flat-out removed accusations against the school’s two flagship sports. In the meantime, know that that noise you might be hearing from Tobacco Road is probably Heel coaches Roy Williams and Larry Fedora doing a lot of celebrating.
(To be fair to Fedora, he walked into the Chapel Hill mess long after the reported academic fraud supposedly took place; Williams, not so much, and his innocence demands more review. We’ll get to all of this in a feature story sometime early in the football season.)
Whatever, 2015 was a revelation on the gridiron for the Heels, who rolled to the Coastal crown and had visions of crashing the Final Four before losing a wild ACC title game vs. Clemson by a 45-37 count in Charlotte. A subsequent 49-38 loss to high-powered Baylor in the Russell Atheltic Bowl took none of the gloss off of an 11-3 record that re-established the Heels as a gridiron force in the region.
Credit for the ascent must go in part to d.c. Gene Chizik, the former Auburn HC and decorated coordinator at a variety of other stops who assumed his role a year ago after the Heels fielded one of the worst defenses in the country in 2014. The Chizik stop unit allowed 62 ypg fewer and 14.5 ppg fewer than the previous year, as well as dropping its yards per play from 6.53 (ranking 117th in 2014) to 5.50 (ranking 58th in 2015). Though there remains room for upgrades after UNC was still way too ginger vs. the run (ranking 122nd nationally) while being near the bottom in ACC sacks and third-down stops. And in the losses to Clemson and Baylor, the Heels allowed almost 1400 combined yards, conceding a staggering 645 rush yards to the Bears in the bowl defeat (whew!).
Chizik’s defensive line and secondary return mostly intact, though at least five underclassmen are likely to see significant time in the rotations up front, where three starters return including DE Dajuan Drennon and DT Nazir Jones. Chizik must also replace playmaking LBs Shakeel Rashad and Jeff Schoettmer, though he reportedly likes the athleticism of the replacements. Three starters return to a secondary that contributed to an 18th ranking in pass defense, with a pair of All-ACC candidates at the CB spots in jr. M.J. Stewart and sr. Des Lawrence.
Fedora’s high-powered, fast-paced spread offense, imported from Southern Miss four years ago, posting some whopping numbers a year ago including 40.7 ppg, good for 9th nationally. Fedora lost some key contributors, including QB Marquise Williams, to graduation, but seven starters return, plus jr. QB Mitch Trubisky, who finally gets his shot after caddying for Williams the past two seasons.
Trubisky might not be as mobile as Williams, who gained 948 YR a year ago, but he can run, completed a stunning 85% of his passes and 6 TD throws in limited work last season, and is expected to forge a seamless transition at QB. Unless he goes down with injury, as there is no experienced cover behind him, a luxury that Trubisky afforded Fedora the past two seasons.
There is plenty of help around Trubisky, as RBs Elijah Hood (1463 YR in 2015) and T.J. Logan (6.1 ypc LY) form a powerful 1-2 punch on the ground, and sr. WRs Ryan Switzer (55 catches LY), Bug Howard (71 catches the past two seasons), and Mack Hollins (almost 25 yards per catch in 2015) are established targets. Four starters are also back along an OL that helped UNC rush for a school-record 5.96 ypc and allow an ACC-best 1.1 sacks per game.
Fedora’s team will have a chance to make an early statement when it faces Georgia in the Chick-fil-A Kickoff Classic in Atlanta on opening weekend, though should be docked something for scheduling a pair of FCS foes (James Madison and The Citadel) in the non-conference part of the slate. The Heels travel to Tallahassee to face Florida State on October 1 but miss Clemson and Louisville from the Atlantic half of the loop. Along with a favorable second half of the schedule, and the fact Trubisky (if he stays healthy) should be little or no drop-off from Marquise Williams, the Heels should be in the mix for another Coastal crown, especially if the defense continues the improvement it displayed for Chizik last season.
Spread-wise, note that Fedora has delivered a 5-2 spread mark at Chapel Hill in three of the past four seasons. The Heels have also been offering good value the past two years as a true visitor, covering the number in six of their last eight chances, though they’re only 2-7 vs. the number their last nine vs. non-ACC teams (not counting a 2014 cover at pseudo-ACC member Notre Dame).
There wasn’t much warning about last season’s collapse for Georgia Tech (2015 SU 3-9; ATS 3-9; O/U 6-6), which had won the Orange Bowl in grand fashion the previous season over SEC Mississippi State and began 2015 scoring better than a point-per-minute in blowout wins over Alcorn State and Tulane. All of a sudden, however, just as happy Jackets fans were ordering another batch of chili dogs and frosted oranges at The Varsity across I-75/85, Tech seemed to get lost in one of the long TSA lines at Hartsfield International, dropping aggravating decision after aggravating decision.
Tech would briefly relocate its luggage in late October when knocking Florida State from the unbeaten ranks with a stirring win at Bobby Dodd Stadium/Grant Field when returning a deflected field goal for a TD on the final play, suggesting at a possible late-season rally. Which never happened as the Jackets would lose out to finish a startling 3-9. Being the best 3-9 team in the country was of little solace and a tremendous departure in form for Tech under HC Paul Johnson, whose personal bowl streak that dated to 2003 when at Navy was finally snapped. It was also revealing that the Engineers were still favored in nine of their twelve games last season despite the downturn.
Upon inspection, there were some explanations for the skid. The Jackets’ turnover margin was 18 worse than the previous season (from +11 to -7), reflected mainly in just 17 takeaways compared to 29 in 2014. The pass rush disappointed for d.c Ted Roof, registering just 14 sacks. Offensively, while the rush game again would characteristically rank in the top ten nationally, it was down to just 256 ypg, the lowest output of the Johnson era in Atlanta that began in 2008.
For the latter to improve, upgrades are needed across an OL that disappointed in 2015. Johnson has added a second OL coach, veteran Ron West, to help forge a recovery this fall, though a lot probably depends upon the return to healthy of key G Chris Griffin, who missed 2015 with an ACL injury and was mostly a bystander in spring. During spring, Johnson, who also saw starting G Gary Brown quit to start a cartoonist career in San Francisco, was shuffling all sorts of OL combinations before arriving at some satisfactory options that will require sophs Will Bryan and Trey Klock to deliver at the tackle spots.
Injuries and youth at the skill positions were also a problem last season, though after several runners and receivers were forced into action last fall, depth appears uncommonly good. Especially at the “A-back” spot which is further fortified with Georgia transfer J.J. Green and soph Qua Searcy, who was injured in the Notre Dame game last September. As a result, returning starter Ike Willis dropped down the depth chart in spring. Soph Clinton Lynch gained 9.5 ypc in limited work last fall and figures at the other “A-back” spot, while Marcus Marshall should man the “B” spot after gaining 654 YR as a frosh.
All of this ought to help sr. QB Justin Thomas, an electric option pilot earlier in his career but who struggled in 2015 when gaining only 3.4 ypc. Thomas, with five 100-yard rushing games in 2014, had zero of those a year ago. With a bit more help, expect Thomas to get back to his 2014 production levels. Passing remains just an occasional diversion in the Johnson option, but Thomas has been able to sneak the long pass downfield at times in the past, and leading returning WR Ricky Jeune (22 yards per catch on his 24 receptions LY) is capable of burning sleeping defenses.
Still, unless Roof coaxes some improvement from his defense, any upgrades from the “O” might go for naught after foes would short-pass the Jackets into submission a year ago. Lack of a credible pass rush was one major negative, and the loss of NT Adam Gotsis (NFL Broncos 2nd-round pick) removes the line’s best and most disruptive element. Still, ACC sources say Roof likes his options up front that include three returning upperclassmen starters. Junior DE K’Shaun Freeman might have NFL potential but needs to develop consistency.
Tech figures to have good stability in the middle of its 4-2-5 alignments thanks to sr. LB P.J. Davis, who has been the Jackets’ leading tackler each of the past two seasons. The bigger question is in the secondary, where young players are being pushed into lead roles around jr. nickel-back Lawrence Austin.
Tech has a chance to break quickly, facing rebuilding Boston College in Dublin, then hosting Mercer and Vanderbilt before ACC play starts. It gets tough in a hurry thereafter with Clemson and Miami visiting Atlanta, by which time we should have an idea if Johnson is going to be able to forge a significant rebound season to rival 2014. Given Johnson’s past successes, we wouldn’t bet against Tech at least becoming relevant again and getting back to a bowl, which had been de rigueur for Johnson teams prior to last season. We also aren’t buying the thought being floated by some ACC observers that the Johnson option offense is past its sell-by date and no longer catching foes by surprise, as conference foes are now keen to Johnson’s tricks. Only two years removed from an 11-3 mark and an Orange Bowl win, we’re certainly not ready to write off Johnson and the Jackets just yet.
Spread-wise, Johnson’s teams have been notoriously good as an underdog, and were 6-0 in that role as recently as 2014. As noted earlier, they only had three underdog chances a year ago, covering one of those, and we have learned never to underestimate a Johnson-coached team getting points. Tech dropped nine of its last ten both SU and vs. the line a year ago, but for the time being consider that an aberration.
It’s been a while since Miami-Florida (2015 SU 8-5; ATS 7-6; O/U 7-6) has resembled its old self from the glory era that lasted thru the early days of the Larry Coker regime. That, however, was more than a decade ago, and the subsequent downturn at the end of the Coker years carried into the ill-fated Randy Shannon regime and mostly continued for Al Golden, hired away from Temple amid lots of hoopla in 2011. The Canes, however, never ignited for Golden (who admittedly had to deal with the cloud of an NCAA investigation and school-imposed penalties in his first few years on the job in Coral Gables), and a 58-0 home loss to Clemson last October proved the last straw as Golden was canned right then and there, with a modest 32-25 SU mark his Miami legacy. The Canes finished the season under interim HC Larry Scott and won 4 of 5, including a wild, last-play kickoff-lateral special at Duke that made Cal-Stanford’s “The Play” from ‘82 look like kid’s stuff, but would lose the Sun Bowl in cold El Paso vs. Mike Leach’s Washington State.
Scott, however, was not seriously considered for the full-time appointment, which drew plenty of interest (reportedly including Auburn HC Gus Malzahn and Mississippi State HC Dan Mullen). Miami would indeed look to the SEC for the future, but rather than Malzahn or Mullen would opt for Mark Richt, recently dismissed at Georgia but a big winner for most of his career in Athens. More importantly, Richt is an alum of “The U” where he once played QB behind Jim Kelly for Howard Schnellenberger’s teams in the early ‘80s. So, it was a homecoming of sorts for Richt, a regional native whose familiarity with Schnellenberger’s old “state of Miami” figures to serve him well in his new appointment.
With a new staff in tow, Richt embarks upon his next challenge with an established roster that returns 16 starters from last year’s 8-5 record. Including jr. QB Brad Kaaya, regarded as a peripheral Heisman candidate after throwing for 3238 yards a year ago. The concern for Richt, as he articulated in spring, was depth, which, upon first impression, is not of the quality that Richt was used to in the SEC and at Georgia. Including at the QB spot, where there is no experienced cover for Kaaya. With upgrades needed across the OL, and the defense dominating in the trenches in spring, Richt is legitimately worried about proper protection for his prized QB.
Interestingly, in addition to his HC chores, Richt is going to assume play-calling duties, which he mastered almost a generation ago under Bobby Bowden at Florida State and retained at Georgia thru 2006. Improving a ground game that ranked 117th nationally will be the first order of business, so improvements along the OL are crucial, not just to protect Kaaya, but to open up holes for RBs jr. Joe Yearby (1002 YR in 2015), soph Mark Walton, and physical Gus Edwards, sidelined most of last season with foot problems. (Check the status of Walton, who appeared to be the featured back in spring but was suspended in April after a DUI arrest, and his availability for the fall remains in question.) Kaaya has an experienced and productive receiving corps at the ready, led by sr. wideout Stacy Coley (47 catches LY), who decided to bypass the NFL draft to return for one more college season, and three established TEs including rising star soph David Njoku.
Richt’s concern with the OL is too many guard-types and not enough tackle-types with agility. How Richt solves this dilemma goes a long way to any Miami successes this fall. Special teams hold more promise with jr. PK Michael Badgley, a Lou Groza Award semifinalist after connecting on 25 of 30 FGs a year ago, and return threat deluxe DB Corn Elder, who scored the TD as the last of the 8-lateral leg to beat Duke.
Richt completely cleaned house on the defensive side, junking Golden’s read-and-react principles and instead looking in a different direction with accomplished d.c. Manny Diaz, another Miami-area native and most recently at Mississippi State. Diaz prefers the 4-3 looks of the best Hurricane defenses of the Schnellenberger and Jimmy Johnson eras. That the “D” seemed ahead of the “O” in spring suggests that Diaz might be further along with the evolution of his platoon than Richt is with the offense. New DL coach Craig Kuligowski arrives from Missouri, which produced four NFL first-round picks since 2009.
Up front, ACC sources believe that DEs Al-Quadin Muhammad and Chad Thomas both have high-round NFL Draft potential. A key player to watch in the front seven will be soph WLB Darrion Owens, returning from major knee surgery. Touted newcomers at LB are expected to contribute right away alongside big-play sr. SLB Jermaine Grace. Their additions to an upgraded rush “D” will be welcome after the Canes were a bit soft vs. the run a year ago (ranking 103rd). If the Diaz defense has the characteristics of his past platoons at other locales, it will be blitz-happy, which will put some added pressure on the secondary. There are experienced contributors at the safety spots led by srs. Rayshawn Jenkins (with 22 career starts) and Jamal Carter, but the aforementioned CB Corn Elder is being counted upon to emerge as more of a playmaker after recording the only pick of Kaaya in spring.
The good news for Richt is that the slate sets up nicely for him to work the kinks out of his new systems in September, with FBS Florida A&M, nearby C-USA Florida Atlanta, and Sun Belt App State out of the chute. October, however, gets a lot tougher, with Florida State and North Carolina at home and Notre Dame and Virginia Tech on the road. But no Clemson or Louisville from the Atlantic side of the loop means the notorious front-running Miami fans will be disappointed if their team doesn’t make the ACC title game. No matter, we’re betting they don’t show up in big numbers at Sun Life Stadium, which has often been embarrassingly empty for Canes games in recent years, though keeping Kaaya healthy should give Miami a puncher’s chance in every game.
Spread-wise, there is room for improvement, as Miami mostly floundered in the Golden years, and Richt’s recent seasons at Georgia were nothing special vs. the line, either. Richt’s once stellar mark as an underdog downgraded significantly the past few seasons, just 3-8 his last 11 getting points with the Bulldogs. Within the Coastal, take note of recent Cane success vs. Georgia Tech, against which Miami has won and covered 6 of its last 7.
When the dust cleared last December, the beginning of the Pat Narduzzi era at Pittsburgh (2015 SU 8-5; ATS 6-7; O/U 6-7) looked an awful lot like the previous years for the Panthers under Paul Chryst, Todd Graham, Dave Wannstedt, and Walt Harris. Win a few more than lose, end up in a minor bowl, etc. etc. Pitt has seemingly perfected its role as the Atlanta Hawks of the ACC, who qualify for the playoffs almost every season but never seem to threaten for a championship...like the football Panthers.
For longtime Pitt followers, that’s still saying something, for there are some old enough to remember the dark days of the late ‘60s, when the program would collapse under HC Dave Hart. By 1968, the Panthers were bad enough to fall behind Notre Dame 49-0 at the half and prompt Irish HC Ara Parseghian to agree to play the final 30 minutes with a running clock. Though Pitt would begin a dramatic recovery a few years later after HC Johnny Majors arrived from Iowa State, the memory of the running clock at Notre Dame in ‘68 still haunts Pitt fans with long memories. Those sorts would be extra-appreciative when the program turned around and won a national title, with HB Tony Dorsett claiming the Heisman Trophy, in 1976. Can it really be 40 years since?
Fast forward to 2016, and it looks like more of the same from recent years for the Panthers. Good enough to cause some problems in the ACC Coastal and probably make another minor bowl. But a breakthrough, or something to remind of the glory years of four decades ago? Not likely.
Still, Pitt could author one of the best storylines of 2016 with the comeback of former star RB James Conner, who is expected to return to active duty after not only enduring MCL surgery after seeing action only in the 2015 opener vs. Youngstown State, but also offseason chemotherapy treatments for Hodgkin’s lymphoma. It might be a bit much to expect Conner to replicate his form from 2014, when he rushed for a whopping 1765 yards and 26 TDs en route to ACC Player of the Year honors. But the Panthers probably don’t need that sort of production from Conner because in his absence they uncovered another slammer, 230-lb. Qadree Ollison, who bulled for 1121 YR in Conner’s straight-ahead style last fall, winning ACC Offensive Rookie of the Year honors in the process. The best of all worlds for Narduzzi and new o.c. Matt Canada (recently at NC State, and familiar to Narduzzi from previous Big Ten days at Wisconsin) would be a dynamite 1-2 combo with Conner and Ollison, perfect fits for Canada’s pro-style, power-based offense.
On the other hand, the Panther braintrust might need big work from the ground game because do-everything WR Tyler Boyd and his 91 catches from a year ago have moved to the NFL, where Boyd was a second-round pick of the Bengals. What scares Pitt fans is that even with Boyd and graduated TE J.P. Holtz, the passing game still ranked a poor 99th nationally, putting added pressure on sr. and former Tennessee transfer QB Nathan Peterman to find some other targets in the fall.
Peterman, a pure drop-back passer, would perform ably once he took over from 2014 starter Chad Voytik, passing for 2287 yards and 20 TDs. Boyd, however, was the ultimate safety blanket. The leftover receiver corps is mostly untested, and will hope sr. Dontez Ford (26 catches LY) can emerge as a post-Boyd go-to target. Three starters return along the OL, though we have to wonder if Narduzzi and Canada might opt for Dee Andros’ old “Power T” formation and overload the offense with RBs because of the questions surrounding the receiving corps.
Narduzzi, longtime d.c. for Mark Dantonio at Michigan State and Cincinnati, preached the same ultra-aggressive defensive philosophy last fall with the Panthers as he did with the Spartans and Bearcats, reflected in high sack totals (2.85 pg ranked 16th nationally). Fifteen different Pitt defenders recorded sacks last season! Nonetheless, even with eight starters back on the platoon, Narduzzi and d.c. John Conklin spent spring juggling positions and moving some players from offense to the stop unit, looking for proper fits.
One position they won’t adjust is that of sr. DE Ejuan Price, who recorded five sacks against Louisville alone. Nor will they tamper with soph SS Jordan Whitehead, who recorded the most tackles (109) for a frosh in school history and also lined up at CB, a LB spot, and even on offense, where he carried the ball 12 times for 122 yards and scored a pair of TDs. Still, the stop unit leaked on several occasions, including when Navy ran roughshod in the Military Bowl, and only generated 16 takeaways, ranking a poor 97th.
The schedule is daunting, with a renewal of the old rivalry vs. Penn State taking place at Heinz Field on September 10, followed by a trip to explosive Big 12 rep Oklahoma State. Other road trips to North Carlina, Miami, and Clemson likely see the Panthers in an underdog role and will make it a chore to climb much above .500. While there appear to be some things to like about this Pitt side, it seems better built to have succeeded back in the Johnny Majors (or Dave Hart) eras. Without a credible passing threat, it is hard to forge a breakthrough these days, and unless QB Peterman can effectively balance the offense, another minor bowl is probably the best the Panthers can do this fall.
Against the number, it's worth noting that Narduzzi has yet to turn Heinz Field into a fortress, as the Panthers covered just 1 of 6 at home last year. Pitt enters this fall having covered just 1 of its last 8 as host, though it has covered 6 of its last 8 as a visitor dating to the end of the Chryst regime.
One of the most curious offseason coaching moves was when longtime BYU HC Bronco Mendenhall left Provo for the rebuild job at Virginia (2015 SU 4-8; ATS 8-3-1; O/U 6-6), which finally pulled the overdue plug on the Mike London regime after four straight non-winning seasons. But why would Mendenhall leave BYU? And why would he want the Virginia job?
Sources say the answer to the first question is not hard, as BYU was playing cheap with Mendenhall, who won 99 games in 11 seasons with the Cougars and would have liked to have been paid a market rate for a coach with his credentials. BYU might also have been thinking it could call the bluff of Mendenhall, knowing he hadn’t left Provo when other suitors had come calling in the past. This time, however, Mendenhall was ready to move, and sources say that when BYU hemmed and hawed once more about significant contract upgrades, Bronco had enough and bolted for Charlottesville.
Now, there is a good question why Mendenhall would opt for the Wahoos after being courted by various other programs (including, reportedly, some Pac-12 schools, such as alma mater Oregon State, plus UCLA and Washington) in recent years. But many in the coaching fraternity are known to covet ACC jobs, which come with a bit less pressure than SEC or Big 12 assignments. Most programs can also win in the ACC, even ones with some academic restrictions such as Virginia. And when Cav AD Craig Littlepage gave Mendenhall predecessor London enough rope to repel down the Washington Monument, Mendenhall knew there would be only modest pressure to win for a few years. Coupled with a significant salary bump, and the pleasant Charlottesville locale a nice place to relocate his family, the move begins to make more sense.
Look for Mendenhall, a defensive specialist by trade, to make an immediate impact with the UVa stop unit despite the return of only five starters. Bronco, a disciple of Rocky Long, already switched alignments for the platoon in spring, opting for a straight 3-4 instead of the Long-influenced 3-3-5, but still junking the previous traditional 4-3 looks preferred by London. That also might be due to graduation of last year’s DL, and new starters having to step in up front. One of Bronco’s spring switches was once-touted jr. Andrew Brown moving from DT to a DE spot, where his skill-set seems better suited and where he might flourish.
There is more experience in Mendenhall’s inherited “back eight” especially at ILB where starters Zach Bradshaw and last year’s ACC tackle leader Micah Kiser still roam. The strength of the platoon would appear to be in the secondary, though the Cavs did rank a poor 97th in pass defense last season. Three starters return, including All-ACC FS Quin Blanding.
Mendenhall has also added to his defensive staff former East Carolina HC Ruffin McNeill, who had earlier in his career made a name for himself as a d.c., most notably at Texas Tech in the Mike Leach era.
The change theme in Wahoo-land continues on offense, where Mendenhall has brought along creative o.c. Robert Anae (with Texas Tech/Mike Leach era roots) from Provo to install a more aggressive offensive philosophy than the staid London. Holdover sr. QB Matt Johns (20 TDP LY) is not a great runner and will not give Anae as much flexibility as he had with recent BYU QBs (such as Taysom Hill), but getting the ball into the hands of playmakers such as RB Taquan “Smoke” Mizzell (671 YR LY plus 75 pass receptions) and a mostly-unproven but hungry group of wideouts, perhaps featuring spring sensation Doni Dowling, will be the focus. Johns, however, might have a tenuous grip on the job if he can’t decrease his painful 17 picks from a year ago, in which case East Carolina transfer Kurt Benkert could emerge. Three starters return on an all-upperclass OL.
Virginia can take no foes for granted, but the Cavs should be favored in three of their four non-ACC games (a long trip to Oregon the exception), and only Louisville among the three Atlantic heavyweights (no Florida State or Clemson) is on the slate. Getting to a bowl for the first time since 2011 might be a tall order, but expect Mendenhall to get the Cavs closer than they have been in recent years.
London would likely not have been moved out if based upon Virginia’s recent spread marks, which have been quite good (including 16-7-1 overall the past two seasons). The Cavs were also 9-1-1 their last 11 as a dog for London. Mendenhall has had generally good marks as a dog, too (12-7 in tole the past five seasons at BYU), a category that likely gets a good workout this fall in Charlottesville.
It can be argued that the job HC David Cutcliffe has done in recent years at Duke (2015 SUR 8-5; PSR 7-6; O/U 6-7) has been as good as any in the country. Even with the expanded bowl menu, getting the Blue Devils into the postseason four straight years is some accomplishment for a program that had been to four bowls the previous 57 years. Moreover, he has given Duke football a bit of a presence at the most basketball-centric of schools, with significant upgrades in the gridiron facilities including an overdue renovation of venerable Wallace Wade Stadium, which until recently had much the same look as it did when it hosted the lone Rose Bowl not played in Pasadena back in 1942, just a bit more than three weeks after the Pearl Harbor attack (which prompted the move from the west coast).
Cutcliffe, however, did not need Duke to establish his credentials, developed long ago in his days as the o.c. at Tennessee and his key role in the development of Peyton Manning, as well as bother Eli, who was at Ole Miss when Cutcliffe was the Rebel HC. Moreover, Cutcliffe seems to have won over hoops HC Mike Krzyzewski, not the easiest thing to do!
Cutcliffe’s magic touch, however, will be put to the test this fall. Only ten starters return from the team that won an exciting 44-41 Yankee Pinstripe Bowl vs. Indiana, the Blue Devils’ first bowl win since the 1954 team whipped Nebraska 34-7 in the Orange Bowl. Note that those ten starters also include sr. QB Thomas Sirk, whose status for the fall is up in the air after tearing his Achilles tendon in the offseason. Sirk, who passed for 2625 yards and ran for another 803 yards in 2015, would be an awful loss for the offense, which has no truly established cover. Redshirt soph Parker Boehme, who passed for 579 yards in a handful of relief appearances last fall, likely gets first crack at the job in Sirk isn’t available, though RS frosh Quentin Harris and Daniel Jones could enter the mix.
Do-everything Sirk was also the leading rusher a year ago, but Duke has some other established runners in sr. Jela Duncan (1575 career yards) and jr. Shaun Watson (1022 career YR). Returning wideouts T.J. Rahming and Anthony Nash combined for 75 catches in 2015. Tennessee transfer TE Daniel Helm was one of the star attractions in spring. Three starters return along the OL, including All-ACC RT Casey Blaser.
Duke’s ability to stay bowl-eligible in recent years also has had as much to do with defensive upgrades, as it has been a while since the Blue Devils resembled their old roadkill platoons. Still, they might miss departed A-A S Jeremy Cash, spending this summer in the NFL Panthers camp.
The 4-2-5 schemes of the Duke defense for co-coordinators Ben Albert and Jim Knowles call for playmakers like Cash at the safety spots, with upperclassmen such as returning starters Alonzo Saxton and Deondre Singleton now expected to step up their performance. Four starters do return in the secondary, including CBs Breon Borders and DeVon Edwards, who is considered a likely NFL draftee and also doubles as a lethal kick return threat (he’s taken six kicks back for scores in his career).
A key on the defense will be for the front to generate more pressure on opposing passers after a handful of those (including graduated North Carolina QB Marquise Williams, who passed for 494 yards and 4 TDs in the 66-31 bomb the Heels dropped on the Blue Devils last November 7) torched Duke a year ago. Senior DT. Joe Wolf is the lone returning starter up front, where some of last year’s rotation pieces, and redshirt frosh, will be asked to contribute right away.
The schedule opens with a layup vs. NC Central and a winnable game vs. Wake Forest before early litmus tests in the Midwest at Northwestern (which won at Durham last season) and Notre Dame. With few easy touches (not even Wake) in the ACC, and NC Central and perhaps Army the only non-conference gimmes, Cutcliffe is probably going to have to win some games as an underdog to get back to a bowl. And if the do-everything QB Sirk isn’t available, that job just got a lot tougher for Duke.
Spread-wise, Cutcliffe’s success in recent years at Durham finally waned a year ago when dropping the last three vs. the line at Wallace Wade Stadium; the Devils had covered 17 of their previous 24 at home. Overall, Cutcliffe had been 19-7-1 vs. the line in 2013-14 before slipping a bit to 7-6 a year ago. Since 2013, Cutcliffe is also 12-5 as an underdog.
July 12, 2016
ACC Coastal Preview
Last year's straight-up, against the spread, and over/under results are included for each team, presented in predicted order of finish...
The last time a Virginia Tech (2015 SU 7-6, ATS 6-7, O/U 6-7) team was not coached by Frank Beamer, Wayne Gretzky still played for the Edmonton Oilers, Bill Walton played for the Boston Celtics, and Ronald Reagan was not quite halfway thru his second term in the White House. It was December of 1986, New Year’s Eve to be exact, at the Peach Bowl in the old Atlanta-Fulton County Stadium, and the Hokies would win a thriller vs. NC State, 25-24, on PK Chris Kinzer’s 40-yard FG on the final play of the game.
Even with the excitement of the win, it was not an easy time for the VPI program, as HC Bill Dooley, who had served in the dual capacity of AD and HC for nine years, would be leaving the school with a $3.5 million settlement courtesy a breach of contract settlement. Beamer, a former Hokie star player in the late ‘60s, was thus summoned home from Murray State, but would soon be working under sanctions imposed by the NCAA due to recruiting violations on Dooley’s watch. With his job on the line in 1993, Beamer pulled a bowl bid out of his hat, and the rest is history...VPI would soon become a national contender and has been “bowling” every year since.
No matter all of that success, the folks of Blacksburg have been ready for a while to turn the page on the era of Beamer, which had lost momentum in recent years as the coach endured some medical problems as he approached 70 years of age. The bowl streak also barely stayed alive three times in the past four seasons as the noted Beamer defense/special teams recipe lost its bite. Beamer’s hire of o.c. Scott Loeffler also turned sour, and there was talk each year of that campaign being Beamer’s last. Rather than stick around too long as did Joe Paterno and, to a lesser extent Bobby Bowden, Beamer was able to leave on his own terms last December before the decline became too steep. For good measure, Beamer would win his last game, though in uncharacteristic fashion as the Hokies hung on to win a 55-52 shootout over Tulsa in the Independence Bowl.
Though the program has slipped in recent years, a quick recovery is not out of the question, especially with well-regarded new HC Justin Fuente now in the fold. Fuente, who first came to prominence as o.c. for Gary Patterson at TCU, quickly resurrected the Memphis program in recent years before being lured to the hills of western Virginia. Along with him is the same up-tempo spread offense that would score 40 ppg for the Tigers a year ago.
Fuente does not inherit a completely bare cupboard, as eight starters return from a strike force that scored a respectable 31 ppg. Fifth-year sr. QB Brandon Motley played enough last season to throw 11 TDP, but most ACC observers believe Fuente will opt for touted juco Jerod Evans, targeted by Fuente to replace NFL Broncos first-round draft pick Paxton Lynch at Memphis before the job-jumping last December. The 6'4, 235-lb. dual-threat Evans, considered perfect for the spread, will be throwing to Tech’s top three receivers from last season including explosive WR Isaiah Ford, who caught 75 passes good for 11 TDs.
Meanwhile, four starters return along a veteran and accomplished OL that has started a combined 89 games in their Hokie careers. There is experience and depth at the RB spots, with soph Travon McMillian gaining 1155 YR a year ago despite not assuming featured ball-toting duties until mid-October.
For many years, it was assumed that Beamer’s longtime sidekick, d.c. Bud Foster, was the HC-in-waiting, though VPI never installed a formal succession plan. Which prompted Foster to pursue other opportunities in recent seasons. Always, however, Foster would opt to remain in Blacksburg, and Fuente was happy to keep the accomplished Bud on board in the same role for the new regime.
Injuries, youth, and attrition contributed to 2015 being one of the worst defensive performances of the Foster era, and the mere 26 sacks and 10 picks were lows since Bud assumed the reins of the stop unit in 1995. New assistants have imported some fresh ideas but the aggressive Foster schemes are still time-tested and will be utilized again this fall.
There is plenty of experience in the secondary that returns all starters from the 19th-ranked pass defense, though the status of CB Adonis Alexander is up in the air after an offseason arrest and suspension. There are other mainstays, however, in sr. FS Chuck Clark and soph SS Terrell Edmunds. Foster has more perplexing personnel questions in his front seven, especially at the LB spots where Foster could use jr. MLB Andrew Motuapuaka to emerge as a playmaker. ACC sources say Foster likes his options on the line, led by sr. DE Ken Ekanem and his 14 career sacks.
The highlight of the non-conference slate is a unique September 10 date at the massive Bristol Motor Speedway (you’re reading that right) against Tennessee. Attendance records for an eternity could be set in the 160,000-seat venue, which is roughly equidistant from each school. The Hokies also make a first-ever visit to Notre Dame on November 19, but the schedule misses all of the heavyweight asides (Clemson, Florida State, Louisville) from the Atlantic half of the loop. All of which making VPI a very intriguing ACC sleeper, especially if juco QB Evans turns into the sort of leader Fuente expects, and the new coach provides a spark.
Spread-wise, Beamer’s teams experienced a downturn the past few years, and the Hokies have not recorded a winning record vs. the number since 2010. Along the way, Lane Stadium sacrificed its one-time edge, with the Hokies only 8-16-1 vs, the line at home since 2011. Beamer’s teams, long successful in the underdog role, were also just 9-10-1 in that role since 2010. Note that Fuente’s Memphis squads were renowned for their spread success on the road, where they stood 13-6-1 vs. the number their last 20 as a visitor.
Looking for the great escape act of the offseason? Try North Carolina (2015 SUR 11-3; PSR 8-6; O/U 8-6), which didn’t even need FBI Director James Comey to recommend no prosecution from NCAA investigators who seemed to have the Tar Heel basketball and football programs in their gunsights. Where many observers saw careless and reckless behavior and gross negligence in what seemed a clear case of academic fraud, the NCAA instead blinked.
More specifically, in late April, the NCAA issued a new Notice of Allegations against UNC, theoretically taking into account the new allegations involving women's hoops and men's soccer. The soccer and women’s basketball teams figure prominently in the new document. Magically, however, the words "impermissible benefits," "football" and "men's basketball" no longer appear.
So, all NCAA conspiracy theorists, we have found Jerry Tarkanian's Holy Grail: The NCAA is so mad at the Carolina football and hoops teams, it's going to lower the boom on soccer and women’s basketball instead!
Indeed, what initially looked like an insignificant announcement, dumped in between Deflate-gate and Steph Curry's MRI results, actually was quite huge. The amended document (not an amendment, which is a significant semantics differentiation) left more than a few people who know the inner workings of the NCAA more than a little bit stunned. As one person put it via text, "Big win for UNC today."
Because somewhere in the past year, in what most assumed would merely be a reworking of the Notice of Allegations to include the new potential violations, the NCAA flat-out removed accusations against the school’s two flagship sports. In the meantime, know that that noise you might be hearing from Tobacco Road is probably Heel coaches Roy Williams and Larry Fedora doing a lot of celebrating.
(To be fair to Fedora, he walked into the Chapel Hill mess long after the reported academic fraud supposedly took place; Williams, not so much, and his innocence demands more review. We’ll get to all of this in a feature story sometime early in the football season.)
Whatever, 2015 was a revelation on the gridiron for the Heels, who rolled to the Coastal crown and had visions of crashing the Final Four before losing a wild ACC title game vs. Clemson by a 45-37 count in Charlotte. A subsequent 49-38 loss to high-powered Baylor in the Russell Atheltic Bowl took none of the gloss off of an 11-3 record that re-established the Heels as a gridiron force in the region.
Credit for the ascent must go in part to d.c. Gene Chizik, the former Auburn HC and decorated coordinator at a variety of other stops who assumed his role a year ago after the Heels fielded one of the worst defenses in the country in 2014. The Chizik stop unit allowed 62 ypg fewer and 14.5 ppg fewer than the previous year, as well as dropping its yards per play from 6.53 (ranking 117th in 2014) to 5.50 (ranking 58th in 2015). Though there remains room for upgrades after UNC was still way too ginger vs. the run (ranking 122nd nationally) while being near the bottom in ACC sacks and third-down stops. And in the losses to Clemson and Baylor, the Heels allowed almost 1400 combined yards, conceding a staggering 645 rush yards to the Bears in the bowl defeat (whew!).
Chizik’s defensive line and secondary return mostly intact, though at least five underclassmen are likely to see significant time in the rotations up front, where three starters return including DE Dajuan Drennon and DT Nazir Jones. Chizik must also replace playmaking LBs Shakeel Rashad and Jeff Schoettmer, though he reportedly likes the athleticism of the replacements. Three starters return to a secondary that contributed to an 18th ranking in pass defense, with a pair of All-ACC candidates at the CB spots in jr. M.J. Stewart and sr. Des Lawrence.
Fedora’s high-powered, fast-paced spread offense, imported from Southern Miss four years ago, posting some whopping numbers a year ago including 40.7 ppg, good for 9th nationally. Fedora lost some key contributors, including QB Marquise Williams, to graduation, but seven starters return, plus jr. QB Mitch Trubisky, who finally gets his shot after caddying for Williams the past two seasons.
Trubisky might not be as mobile as Williams, who gained 948 YR a year ago, but he can run, completed a stunning 85% of his passes and 6 TD throws in limited work last season, and is expected to forge a seamless transition at QB. Unless he goes down with injury, as there is no experienced cover behind him, a luxury that Trubisky afforded Fedora the past two seasons.
There is plenty of help around Trubisky, as RBs Elijah Hood (1463 YR in 2015) and T.J. Logan (6.1 ypc LY) form a powerful 1-2 punch on the ground, and sr. WRs Ryan Switzer (55 catches LY), Bug Howard (71 catches the past two seasons), and Mack Hollins (almost 25 yards per catch in 2015) are established targets. Four starters are also back along an OL that helped UNC rush for a school-record 5.96 ypc and allow an ACC-best 1.1 sacks per game.
Fedora’s team will have a chance to make an early statement when it faces Georgia in the Chick-fil-A Kickoff Classic in Atlanta on opening weekend, though should be docked something for scheduling a pair of FCS foes (James Madison and The Citadel) in the non-conference part of the slate. The Heels travel to Tallahassee to face Florida State on October 1 but miss Clemson and Louisville from the Atlantic half of the loop. Along with a favorable second half of the schedule, and the fact Trubisky (if he stays healthy) should be little or no drop-off from Marquise Williams, the Heels should be in the mix for another Coastal crown, especially if the defense continues the improvement it displayed for Chizik last season.
Spread-wise, note that Fedora has delivered a 5-2 spread mark at Chapel Hill in three of the past four seasons. The Heels have also been offering good value the past two years as a true visitor, covering the number in six of their last eight chances, though they’re only 2-7 vs. the number their last nine vs. non-ACC teams (not counting a 2014 cover at pseudo-ACC member Notre Dame).
There wasn’t much warning about last season’s collapse for Georgia Tech (2015 SU 3-9; ATS 3-9; O/U 6-6), which had won the Orange Bowl in grand fashion the previous season over SEC Mississippi State and began 2015 scoring better than a point-per-minute in blowout wins over Alcorn State and Tulane. All of a sudden, however, just as happy Jackets fans were ordering another batch of chili dogs and frosted oranges at The Varsity across I-75/85, Tech seemed to get lost in one of the long TSA lines at Hartsfield International, dropping aggravating decision after aggravating decision.
Tech would briefly relocate its luggage in late October when knocking Florida State from the unbeaten ranks with a stirring win at Bobby Dodd Stadium/Grant Field when returning a deflected field goal for a TD on the final play, suggesting at a possible late-season rally. Which never happened as the Jackets would lose out to finish a startling 3-9. Being the best 3-9 team in the country was of little solace and a tremendous departure in form for Tech under HC Paul Johnson, whose personal bowl streak that dated to 2003 when at Navy was finally snapped. It was also revealing that the Engineers were still favored in nine of their twelve games last season despite the downturn.
Upon inspection, there were some explanations for the skid. The Jackets’ turnover margin was 18 worse than the previous season (from +11 to -7), reflected mainly in just 17 takeaways compared to 29 in 2014. The pass rush disappointed for d.c Ted Roof, registering just 14 sacks. Offensively, while the rush game again would characteristically rank in the top ten nationally, it was down to just 256 ypg, the lowest output of the Johnson era in Atlanta that began in 2008.
For the latter to improve, upgrades are needed across an OL that disappointed in 2015. Johnson has added a second OL coach, veteran Ron West, to help forge a recovery this fall, though a lot probably depends upon the return to healthy of key G Chris Griffin, who missed 2015 with an ACL injury and was mostly a bystander in spring. During spring, Johnson, who also saw starting G Gary Brown quit to start a cartoonist career in San Francisco, was shuffling all sorts of OL combinations before arriving at some satisfactory options that will require sophs Will Bryan and Trey Klock to deliver at the tackle spots.
Injuries and youth at the skill positions were also a problem last season, though after several runners and receivers were forced into action last fall, depth appears uncommonly good. Especially at the “A-back” spot which is further fortified with Georgia transfer J.J. Green and soph Qua Searcy, who was injured in the Notre Dame game last September. As a result, returning starter Ike Willis dropped down the depth chart in spring. Soph Clinton Lynch gained 9.5 ypc in limited work last fall and figures at the other “A-back” spot, while Marcus Marshall should man the “B” spot after gaining 654 YR as a frosh.
All of this ought to help sr. QB Justin Thomas, an electric option pilot earlier in his career but who struggled in 2015 when gaining only 3.4 ypc. Thomas, with five 100-yard rushing games in 2014, had zero of those a year ago. With a bit more help, expect Thomas to get back to his 2014 production levels. Passing remains just an occasional diversion in the Johnson option, but Thomas has been able to sneak the long pass downfield at times in the past, and leading returning WR Ricky Jeune (22 yards per catch on his 24 receptions LY) is capable of burning sleeping defenses.
Still, unless Roof coaxes some improvement from his defense, any upgrades from the “O” might go for naught after foes would short-pass the Jackets into submission a year ago. Lack of a credible pass rush was one major negative, and the loss of NT Adam Gotsis (NFL Broncos 2nd-round pick) removes the line’s best and most disruptive element. Still, ACC sources say Roof likes his options up front that include three returning upperclassmen starters. Junior DE K’Shaun Freeman might have NFL potential but needs to develop consistency.
Tech figures to have good stability in the middle of its 4-2-5 alignments thanks to sr. LB P.J. Davis, who has been the Jackets’ leading tackler each of the past two seasons. The bigger question is in the secondary, where young players are being pushed into lead roles around jr. nickel-back Lawrence Austin.
Tech has a chance to break quickly, facing rebuilding Boston College in Dublin, then hosting Mercer and Vanderbilt before ACC play starts. It gets tough in a hurry thereafter with Clemson and Miami visiting Atlanta, by which time we should have an idea if Johnson is going to be able to forge a significant rebound season to rival 2014. Given Johnson’s past successes, we wouldn’t bet against Tech at least becoming relevant again and getting back to a bowl, which had been de rigueur for Johnson teams prior to last season. We also aren’t buying the thought being floated by some ACC observers that the Johnson option offense is past its sell-by date and no longer catching foes by surprise, as conference foes are now keen to Johnson’s tricks. Only two years removed from an 11-3 mark and an Orange Bowl win, we’re certainly not ready to write off Johnson and the Jackets just yet.
Spread-wise, Johnson’s teams have been notoriously good as an underdog, and were 6-0 in that role as recently as 2014. As noted earlier, they only had three underdog chances a year ago, covering one of those, and we have learned never to underestimate a Johnson-coached team getting points. Tech dropped nine of its last ten both SU and vs. the line a year ago, but for the time being consider that an aberration.
It’s been a while since Miami-Florida (2015 SU 8-5; ATS 7-6; O/U 7-6) has resembled its old self from the glory era that lasted thru the early days of the Larry Coker regime. That, however, was more than a decade ago, and the subsequent downturn at the end of the Coker years carried into the ill-fated Randy Shannon regime and mostly continued for Al Golden, hired away from Temple amid lots of hoopla in 2011. The Canes, however, never ignited for Golden (who admittedly had to deal with the cloud of an NCAA investigation and school-imposed penalties in his first few years on the job in Coral Gables), and a 58-0 home loss to Clemson last October proved the last straw as Golden was canned right then and there, with a modest 32-25 SU mark his Miami legacy. The Canes finished the season under interim HC Larry Scott and won 4 of 5, including a wild, last-play kickoff-lateral special at Duke that made Cal-Stanford’s “The Play” from ‘82 look like kid’s stuff, but would lose the Sun Bowl in cold El Paso vs. Mike Leach’s Washington State.
Scott, however, was not seriously considered for the full-time appointment, which drew plenty of interest (reportedly including Auburn HC Gus Malzahn and Mississippi State HC Dan Mullen). Miami would indeed look to the SEC for the future, but rather than Malzahn or Mullen would opt for Mark Richt, recently dismissed at Georgia but a big winner for most of his career in Athens. More importantly, Richt is an alum of “The U” where he once played QB behind Jim Kelly for Howard Schnellenberger’s teams in the early ‘80s. So, it was a homecoming of sorts for Richt, a regional native whose familiarity with Schnellenberger’s old “state of Miami” figures to serve him well in his new appointment.
With a new staff in tow, Richt embarks upon his next challenge with an established roster that returns 16 starters from last year’s 8-5 record. Including jr. QB Brad Kaaya, regarded as a peripheral Heisman candidate after throwing for 3238 yards a year ago. The concern for Richt, as he articulated in spring, was depth, which, upon first impression, is not of the quality that Richt was used to in the SEC and at Georgia. Including at the QB spot, where there is no experienced cover for Kaaya. With upgrades needed across the OL, and the defense dominating in the trenches in spring, Richt is legitimately worried about proper protection for his prized QB.
Interestingly, in addition to his HC chores, Richt is going to assume play-calling duties, which he mastered almost a generation ago under Bobby Bowden at Florida State and retained at Georgia thru 2006. Improving a ground game that ranked 117th nationally will be the first order of business, so improvements along the OL are crucial, not just to protect Kaaya, but to open up holes for RBs jr. Joe Yearby (1002 YR in 2015), soph Mark Walton, and physical Gus Edwards, sidelined most of last season with foot problems. (Check the status of Walton, who appeared to be the featured back in spring but was suspended in April after a DUI arrest, and his availability for the fall remains in question.) Kaaya has an experienced and productive receiving corps at the ready, led by sr. wideout Stacy Coley (47 catches LY), who decided to bypass the NFL draft to return for one more college season, and three established TEs including rising star soph David Njoku.
Richt’s concern with the OL is too many guard-types and not enough tackle-types with agility. How Richt solves this dilemma goes a long way to any Miami successes this fall. Special teams hold more promise with jr. PK Michael Badgley, a Lou Groza Award semifinalist after connecting on 25 of 30 FGs a year ago, and return threat deluxe DB Corn Elder, who scored the TD as the last of the 8-lateral leg to beat Duke.
Richt completely cleaned house on the defensive side, junking Golden’s read-and-react principles and instead looking in a different direction with accomplished d.c. Manny Diaz, another Miami-area native and most recently at Mississippi State. Diaz prefers the 4-3 looks of the best Hurricane defenses of the Schnellenberger and Jimmy Johnson eras. That the “D” seemed ahead of the “O” in spring suggests that Diaz might be further along with the evolution of his platoon than Richt is with the offense. New DL coach Craig Kuligowski arrives from Missouri, which produced four NFL first-round picks since 2009.
Up front, ACC sources believe that DEs Al-Quadin Muhammad and Chad Thomas both have high-round NFL Draft potential. A key player to watch in the front seven will be soph WLB Darrion Owens, returning from major knee surgery. Touted newcomers at LB are expected to contribute right away alongside big-play sr. SLB Jermaine Grace. Their additions to an upgraded rush “D” will be welcome after the Canes were a bit soft vs. the run a year ago (ranking 103rd). If the Diaz defense has the characteristics of his past platoons at other locales, it will be blitz-happy, which will put some added pressure on the secondary. There are experienced contributors at the safety spots led by srs. Rayshawn Jenkins (with 22 career starts) and Jamal Carter, but the aforementioned CB Corn Elder is being counted upon to emerge as more of a playmaker after recording the only pick of Kaaya in spring.
The good news for Richt is that the slate sets up nicely for him to work the kinks out of his new systems in September, with FBS Florida A&M, nearby C-USA Florida Atlanta, and Sun Belt App State out of the chute. October, however, gets a lot tougher, with Florida State and North Carolina at home and Notre Dame and Virginia Tech on the road. But no Clemson or Louisville from the Atlantic side of the loop means the notorious front-running Miami fans will be disappointed if their team doesn’t make the ACC title game. No matter, we’re betting they don’t show up in big numbers at Sun Life Stadium, which has often been embarrassingly empty for Canes games in recent years, though keeping Kaaya healthy should give Miami a puncher’s chance in every game.
Spread-wise, there is room for improvement, as Miami mostly floundered in the Golden years, and Richt’s recent seasons at Georgia were nothing special vs. the line, either. Richt’s once stellar mark as an underdog downgraded significantly the past few seasons, just 3-8 his last 11 getting points with the Bulldogs. Within the Coastal, take note of recent Cane success vs. Georgia Tech, against which Miami has won and covered 6 of its last 7.
When the dust cleared last December, the beginning of the Pat Narduzzi era at Pittsburgh (2015 SU 8-5; ATS 6-7; O/U 6-7) looked an awful lot like the previous years for the Panthers under Paul Chryst, Todd Graham, Dave Wannstedt, and Walt Harris. Win a few more than lose, end up in a minor bowl, etc. etc. Pitt has seemingly perfected its role as the Atlanta Hawks of the ACC, who qualify for the playoffs almost every season but never seem to threaten for a championship...like the football Panthers.
For longtime Pitt followers, that’s still saying something, for there are some old enough to remember the dark days of the late ‘60s, when the program would collapse under HC Dave Hart. By 1968, the Panthers were bad enough to fall behind Notre Dame 49-0 at the half and prompt Irish HC Ara Parseghian to agree to play the final 30 minutes with a running clock. Though Pitt would begin a dramatic recovery a few years later after HC Johnny Majors arrived from Iowa State, the memory of the running clock at Notre Dame in ‘68 still haunts Pitt fans with long memories. Those sorts would be extra-appreciative when the program turned around and won a national title, with HB Tony Dorsett claiming the Heisman Trophy, in 1976. Can it really be 40 years since?
Fast forward to 2016, and it looks like more of the same from recent years for the Panthers. Good enough to cause some problems in the ACC Coastal and probably make another minor bowl. But a breakthrough, or something to remind of the glory years of four decades ago? Not likely.
Still, Pitt could author one of the best storylines of 2016 with the comeback of former star RB James Conner, who is expected to return to active duty after not only enduring MCL surgery after seeing action only in the 2015 opener vs. Youngstown State, but also offseason chemotherapy treatments for Hodgkin’s lymphoma. It might be a bit much to expect Conner to replicate his form from 2014, when he rushed for a whopping 1765 yards and 26 TDs en route to ACC Player of the Year honors. But the Panthers probably don’t need that sort of production from Conner because in his absence they uncovered another slammer, 230-lb. Qadree Ollison, who bulled for 1121 YR in Conner’s straight-ahead style last fall, winning ACC Offensive Rookie of the Year honors in the process. The best of all worlds for Narduzzi and new o.c. Matt Canada (recently at NC State, and familiar to Narduzzi from previous Big Ten days at Wisconsin) would be a dynamite 1-2 combo with Conner and Ollison, perfect fits for Canada’s pro-style, power-based offense.
On the other hand, the Panther braintrust might need big work from the ground game because do-everything WR Tyler Boyd and his 91 catches from a year ago have moved to the NFL, where Boyd was a second-round pick of the Bengals. What scares Pitt fans is that even with Boyd and graduated TE J.P. Holtz, the passing game still ranked a poor 99th nationally, putting added pressure on sr. and former Tennessee transfer QB Nathan Peterman to find some other targets in the fall.
Peterman, a pure drop-back passer, would perform ably once he took over from 2014 starter Chad Voytik, passing for 2287 yards and 20 TDs. Boyd, however, was the ultimate safety blanket. The leftover receiver corps is mostly untested, and will hope sr. Dontez Ford (26 catches LY) can emerge as a post-Boyd go-to target. Three starters return along the OL, though we have to wonder if Narduzzi and Canada might opt for Dee Andros’ old “Power T” formation and overload the offense with RBs because of the questions surrounding the receiving corps.
Narduzzi, longtime d.c. for Mark Dantonio at Michigan State and Cincinnati, preached the same ultra-aggressive defensive philosophy last fall with the Panthers as he did with the Spartans and Bearcats, reflected in high sack totals (2.85 pg ranked 16th nationally). Fifteen different Pitt defenders recorded sacks last season! Nonetheless, even with eight starters back on the platoon, Narduzzi and d.c. John Conklin spent spring juggling positions and moving some players from offense to the stop unit, looking for proper fits.
One position they won’t adjust is that of sr. DE Ejuan Price, who recorded five sacks against Louisville alone. Nor will they tamper with soph SS Jordan Whitehead, who recorded the most tackles (109) for a frosh in school history and also lined up at CB, a LB spot, and even on offense, where he carried the ball 12 times for 122 yards and scored a pair of TDs. Still, the stop unit leaked on several occasions, including when Navy ran roughshod in the Military Bowl, and only generated 16 takeaways, ranking a poor 97th.
The schedule is daunting, with a renewal of the old rivalry vs. Penn State taking place at Heinz Field on September 10, followed by a trip to explosive Big 12 rep Oklahoma State. Other road trips to North Carlina, Miami, and Clemson likely see the Panthers in an underdog role and will make it a chore to climb much above .500. While there appear to be some things to like about this Pitt side, it seems better built to have succeeded back in the Johnny Majors (or Dave Hart) eras. Without a credible passing threat, it is hard to forge a breakthrough these days, and unless QB Peterman can effectively balance the offense, another minor bowl is probably the best the Panthers can do this fall.
Against the number, it's worth noting that Narduzzi has yet to turn Heinz Field into a fortress, as the Panthers covered just 1 of 6 at home last year. Pitt enters this fall having covered just 1 of its last 8 as host, though it has covered 6 of its last 8 as a visitor dating to the end of the Chryst regime.
One of the most curious offseason coaching moves was when longtime BYU HC Bronco Mendenhall left Provo for the rebuild job at Virginia (2015 SU 4-8; ATS 8-3-1; O/U 6-6), which finally pulled the overdue plug on the Mike London regime after four straight non-winning seasons. But why would Mendenhall leave BYU? And why would he want the Virginia job?
Sources say the answer to the first question is not hard, as BYU was playing cheap with Mendenhall, who won 99 games in 11 seasons with the Cougars and would have liked to have been paid a market rate for a coach with his credentials. BYU might also have been thinking it could call the bluff of Mendenhall, knowing he hadn’t left Provo when other suitors had come calling in the past. This time, however, Mendenhall was ready to move, and sources say that when BYU hemmed and hawed once more about significant contract upgrades, Bronco had enough and bolted for Charlottesville.
Now, there is a good question why Mendenhall would opt for the Wahoos after being courted by various other programs (including, reportedly, some Pac-12 schools, such as alma mater Oregon State, plus UCLA and Washington) in recent years. But many in the coaching fraternity are known to covet ACC jobs, which come with a bit less pressure than SEC or Big 12 assignments. Most programs can also win in the ACC, even ones with some academic restrictions such as Virginia. And when Cav AD Craig Littlepage gave Mendenhall predecessor London enough rope to repel down the Washington Monument, Mendenhall knew there would be only modest pressure to win for a few years. Coupled with a significant salary bump, and the pleasant Charlottesville locale a nice place to relocate his family, the move begins to make more sense.
Look for Mendenhall, a defensive specialist by trade, to make an immediate impact with the UVa stop unit despite the return of only five starters. Bronco, a disciple of Rocky Long, already switched alignments for the platoon in spring, opting for a straight 3-4 instead of the Long-influenced 3-3-5, but still junking the previous traditional 4-3 looks preferred by London. That also might be due to graduation of last year’s DL, and new starters having to step in up front. One of Bronco’s spring switches was once-touted jr. Andrew Brown moving from DT to a DE spot, where his skill-set seems better suited and where he might flourish.
There is more experience in Mendenhall’s inherited “back eight” especially at ILB where starters Zach Bradshaw and last year’s ACC tackle leader Micah Kiser still roam. The strength of the platoon would appear to be in the secondary, though the Cavs did rank a poor 97th in pass defense last season. Three starters return, including All-ACC FS Quin Blanding.
Mendenhall has also added to his defensive staff former East Carolina HC Ruffin McNeill, who had earlier in his career made a name for himself as a d.c., most notably at Texas Tech in the Mike Leach era.
The change theme in Wahoo-land continues on offense, where Mendenhall has brought along creative o.c. Robert Anae (with Texas Tech/Mike Leach era roots) from Provo to install a more aggressive offensive philosophy than the staid London. Holdover sr. QB Matt Johns (20 TDP LY) is not a great runner and will not give Anae as much flexibility as he had with recent BYU QBs (such as Taysom Hill), but getting the ball into the hands of playmakers such as RB Taquan “Smoke” Mizzell (671 YR LY plus 75 pass receptions) and a mostly-unproven but hungry group of wideouts, perhaps featuring spring sensation Doni Dowling, will be the focus. Johns, however, might have a tenuous grip on the job if he can’t decrease his painful 17 picks from a year ago, in which case East Carolina transfer Kurt Benkert could emerge. Three starters return on an all-upperclass OL.
Virginia can take no foes for granted, but the Cavs should be favored in three of their four non-ACC games (a long trip to Oregon the exception), and only Louisville among the three Atlantic heavyweights (no Florida State or Clemson) is on the slate. Getting to a bowl for the first time since 2011 might be a tall order, but expect Mendenhall to get the Cavs closer than they have been in recent years.
London would likely not have been moved out if based upon Virginia’s recent spread marks, which have been quite good (including 16-7-1 overall the past two seasons). The Cavs were also 9-1-1 their last 11 as a dog for London. Mendenhall has had generally good marks as a dog, too (12-7 in tole the past five seasons at BYU), a category that likely gets a good workout this fall in Charlottesville.
It can be argued that the job HC David Cutcliffe has done in recent years at Duke (2015 SUR 8-5; PSR 7-6; O/U 6-7) has been as good as any in the country. Even with the expanded bowl menu, getting the Blue Devils into the postseason four straight years is some accomplishment for a program that had been to four bowls the previous 57 years. Moreover, he has given Duke football a bit of a presence at the most basketball-centric of schools, with significant upgrades in the gridiron facilities including an overdue renovation of venerable Wallace Wade Stadium, which until recently had much the same look as it did when it hosted the lone Rose Bowl not played in Pasadena back in 1942, just a bit more than three weeks after the Pearl Harbor attack (which prompted the move from the west coast).
Cutcliffe, however, did not need Duke to establish his credentials, developed long ago in his days as the o.c. at Tennessee and his key role in the development of Peyton Manning, as well as bother Eli, who was at Ole Miss when Cutcliffe was the Rebel HC. Moreover, Cutcliffe seems to have won over hoops HC Mike Krzyzewski, not the easiest thing to do!
Cutcliffe’s magic touch, however, will be put to the test this fall. Only ten starters return from the team that won an exciting 44-41 Yankee Pinstripe Bowl vs. Indiana, the Blue Devils’ first bowl win since the 1954 team whipped Nebraska 34-7 in the Orange Bowl. Note that those ten starters also include sr. QB Thomas Sirk, whose status for the fall is up in the air after tearing his Achilles tendon in the offseason. Sirk, who passed for 2625 yards and ran for another 803 yards in 2015, would be an awful loss for the offense, which has no truly established cover. Redshirt soph Parker Boehme, who passed for 579 yards in a handful of relief appearances last fall, likely gets first crack at the job in Sirk isn’t available, though RS frosh Quentin Harris and Daniel Jones could enter the mix.
Do-everything Sirk was also the leading rusher a year ago, but Duke has some other established runners in sr. Jela Duncan (1575 career yards) and jr. Shaun Watson (1022 career YR). Returning wideouts T.J. Rahming and Anthony Nash combined for 75 catches in 2015. Tennessee transfer TE Daniel Helm was one of the star attractions in spring. Three starters return along the OL, including All-ACC RT Casey Blaser.
Duke’s ability to stay bowl-eligible in recent years also has had as much to do with defensive upgrades, as it has been a while since the Blue Devils resembled their old roadkill platoons. Still, they might miss departed A-A S Jeremy Cash, spending this summer in the NFL Panthers camp.
The 4-2-5 schemes of the Duke defense for co-coordinators Ben Albert and Jim Knowles call for playmakers like Cash at the safety spots, with upperclassmen such as returning starters Alonzo Saxton and Deondre Singleton now expected to step up their performance. Four starters do return in the secondary, including CBs Breon Borders and DeVon Edwards, who is considered a likely NFL draftee and also doubles as a lethal kick return threat (he’s taken six kicks back for scores in his career).
A key on the defense will be for the front to generate more pressure on opposing passers after a handful of those (including graduated North Carolina QB Marquise Williams, who passed for 494 yards and 4 TDs in the 66-31 bomb the Heels dropped on the Blue Devils last November 7) torched Duke a year ago. Senior DT. Joe Wolf is the lone returning starter up front, where some of last year’s rotation pieces, and redshirt frosh, will be asked to contribute right away.
The schedule opens with a layup vs. NC Central and a winnable game vs. Wake Forest before early litmus tests in the Midwest at Northwestern (which won at Durham last season) and Notre Dame. With few easy touches (not even Wake) in the ACC, and NC Central and perhaps Army the only non-conference gimmes, Cutcliffe is probably going to have to win some games as an underdog to get back to a bowl. And if the do-everything QB Sirk isn’t available, that job just got a lot tougher for Duke.
Spread-wise, Cutcliffe’s success in recent years at Durham finally waned a year ago when dropping the last three vs. the line at Wallace Wade Stadium; the Devils had covered 17 of their previous 24 at home. Overall, Cutcliffe had been 19-7-1 vs. the line in 2013-14 before slipping a bit to 7-6 a year ago. Since 2013, Cutcliffe is also 12-5 as an underdog.
