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[CNOTES]

Bad Company - Week 8

October 14, 2014

As conference season continues to roll on, the pointspreads aren’t as heavy as they were during non-league play. There are still plenty of awful teams out there looking to get through a miserable season and gives bettors a chance to fade them. We’ll start this week’s action inside the ACC with a team that has lost 11 consecutive conference games and is receiving plenty of points on the road.

N.C. State (+17) at Louisville – 3:30 PM EST

The wheels have officially fallen off the Wolfpack wagon as N.C. State coach Dave Doeren suspended seven players for Saturday’s game at Louisville for a BB gun incident. The Wolfpack has shot themselves in the foot plenty of times this season, including blowing a 24-7 lead to top-ranked Florida State before allowing 49 points in the final three quarters. N.C. State hasn’t won a conference game under Doeren, while posting an 0-11 SU and 3-8 ATS record inside the ACC since the start of last season.

The Wolfpack travels to Louisville, as the Cardinals fell to 2-2 in ACC play after a 23-17 defeat at Clemson as 8 ½-point underdogs. Louisville’s defense has been solid all season long, not allowing more than 23 points in any of its seven games, while cashing the ‘under’ six times. In Bobby Petrino’s last 20 games as a home favorite at Louisville, the Cardinals have covered 17 times, including a 2-1 ATS record this season.

Cincinnati (-14) vs. SMU – 3:30 PM EST

Looking at this matchup, some would ask if the wrong team to fade is listed with SMU owning an 0-5 record. The Mustangs have been abysmal offensively this season, but showed some signs of life in a 45-24 setback at East Carolina two weeks ago to cover as a hefty 40-point underdog. The 24-point output by SMU doubled the amount of points it scored in the previous four games combined. Going back to the negatives with the Mustangs, this team has allowed at least 43 points in all five losses, while their only cover of the season came against ECU.

Cincinnati’s defense has been shredded all season, allowing 146 points in its past three defeats, including giving up 55 points in last week’s loss at Miami. The Bearcats have been outgained on the ground by at least 200 yards in the previous three games, while allowing 335 yards to the Hurricanes last week. From a pointspread standpoint, UC hasn’t covered in the past four contests, including an 0-2 SU/ATS record on the road. Cincinnati beat SMU last season at home, 38-35, but didn’t cash as seven-point favorites.

Ball State (+9 ½) at Central Michigan – 3:30 PM EST

Ball State dominated Colgate in its season opener, but the Cardinals haven’t won since, dropping five straight games. The Cards did cash as double-digit underdogs at Iowa and Toledo, but have allowed 75 points in the past two losses to Army and Western Michigan. Ball State’s defense is giving up nearly 200 yards a game on the ground, as this team has gone backwards since going 7-1 in MAC play last season.

Central Michigan has bounced back since a three-game losing streak following a 2-0 start, beating Ohio and Northern Illinois in the past two weeks. In those victories, the Chippewas rushed for 234 and 283 yards, which could spell major problems for Ball State’s anemic run defense. Central Michigan has plenty to play for against Ball State, considering the Cardinals have won four straight meetings in the series.

Kent (+5) vs. Army – 3:30 PM EST

The Golden Flashes are winless through six games, while not eclipsing the 17-point mark in any contest this season. Kent has been outgained in each loss, as the Golden Flashes were destroyed by previously winless UMass last week, 40-17 as three-point favorites. The lone game that Kent actually cashed came as 26-point underdogs at Northern Illinois in a 17-14 setback, while dropping 14 of its past 17 games dating back to last season.

Army has won just once in the past five games since a season-opening victory over Buffalo, while losing outright as a road favorite at Yale and Wake Forest. This seems like each team is fade material in this matchup, but the Black Knights are 2-0 against MAC opponents, beating Ball State and Buffalo, but each victory came at home. Army has dropped 18 straight road games with its last victory in a true away contest coming in 2010 at Kent State, so tread lightly here.

Georgia State (+17 ½) at South Alabama – 7:30 PM EST

This Sun Belt matchup won’t get a lot of attention on Saturday, as Georgia State has dropped five consecutive games. The Panthers have given up at least 34 points in all six contests, while coming off a 52-10 home defeat to Arkansas State last week. However, Georgia State has covered each of its two road games at Washington (+34 ½) and Louisiana-Lafayette (+16), while going 6-1 ATS in the away underdog role since the start of last season.

South Alabama returns home off back-to-back road victories at Idaho and Appalachian State, but the Jaguars scored a combined nine points in home losses to Georgia Southern and Mississippi State. The Jaguars have performed well since the end of last season in the favorite role, posting a 6-0 SU/ATS record.

 

[CNOTES]

Virginia Tech at Pittsburgh

October 14, 2014


The ACC Coastal may be one of the weaker major conference divisions in the nation, but it has been very competitive the last two years and at this point all seven teams are still legitimately in the running. Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech open the college football weekend Thursday night and the winner of this game will emerge as a serious threat to win the division at 2-1 as both teams have relatively favorable conference schedules.

Match-up: Virginia Tech Hokies at Pittsburgh Panthers
Venue: Heinz Field in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Date: Thursday, October 16, 2014
Time/TV: 7:00 PM ET – ESPN
Line: Virginia Tech -1
Last Meeting: 2013, Virginia Tech (-7) 19-9 at Virginia Tech

Pittsburgh upset Virginia Tech in 2012, the last time the Hokies visited Heinz Field, winning in a 35-17 rout with lopsided yardage as a 10-point underdog after starting the season 0-2. Last season in Blacksburg, it was a different story in a defensive grind as Virginia Tech won 19-9, with the only Pittsburgh touchdown coming with just two minutes left in the game. The Panthers, then with NFL draft pick Tom Savage at quarterback, managed just 210 total yards.

Both teams did very little on the ground in last season’s meeting and run defense has been a strong suit for both teams this season. Pittsburgh is allowing just 3.6 yards per rush while Virginia Tech surrenders only 3.4 yards per rush. That matchup appears to be the key for this game as Pittsburgh rushes for 244 yards per game on 5.3 yards per carry. As usual, Virginia Tech features a strong secondary and is a tough team to pass against. The Hokies have held opposing quarterbacks to less than 45 percent completions this season.

While Logan Thomas was always frustrating as quarterback for Virginia Tech with a tendency to turn the ball over, that problem has not been resolved with junior Michael Brewer leading the team this season. Brewer has 10 touchdown passes while passing for over 1,400 yards in six games, but he has 11 interceptions including at least one in every single game. The passing game has been limited for Pittsburgh under sophomore quarterback Chad Voytik, who has thrown an interception in all five FBS games as well this season.

This is the third season at Pittsburgh for Paul Chryst after being the offensive coordinator at Wisconsin for a number of years. The Panthers have wound up in bowl games each of the last two seasons, going 6-6 in both regular season campaigns as the team is yet to break through with a great season and that does not appear to be happening in 2014. After a 3-0 start including a road win in the ACC opener, Pittsburgh has now lost three straight games. Falling in a close game with Iowa in which the Panthers had a big yardage edge was perhaps forgivable, but in the last two games, Pittsburgh has lost at home against Akron while scoring just 10 points and then lost 24-19 at Virginia in a game that was not as close as the final score.

For Virginia Tech, a season that started with great promise has also soured in what is the 28th season for Frank Beamer on the sidelines. The Hokies scored a sizable upset at highly ranked Ohio State in the second week of the season, but then lost back-to-back home games against East Carolina and Georgia Tech. The Hokies appear to be back on track with consecutive wins, but it has been a while since Beamer has produced a team that has stayed nationally relevant for a full season.

Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech are both 1-1 in ACC play, so while discussion of making the national final four is out, both teams are alive and well in a wide open ACC Coastal division. Virginia is the only team in the division without a loss at this point in the season and it has been a division won with multiple losses each of the last two seasons. North Carolina was actually the favorite to win the division in August and they are the only team in the division without a win in what should truly be a wide open multi-team race that could come down to tiebreakers between multiple 5-3 teams as it did in 2012.

The Pittsburgh season will be defined in the next three games with challenging games in three straight home dates, hosting Georgia Tech and Duke in the following two games. A three-game win streak to cancel out the three-game losing streak that the Panthers are currently on would put Pittsburgh in the Coastal division driver’s seat. Next on the schedule for Virginia Tech is a prominent game with Miami and the schedule does line up well for Virginia Tech relative to its Coastal peers, drawing Boston College and Wake Forest in the two Atlantic games, avoiding Florida State, Clemson, and Louisville.

At this point in the season, Virginia Tech and Pittsburgh have nearly identical scoring figures with both teams posting 183 points and Pittsburgh actually allowing five fewer points through six games. The schedule for Virginia Tech rates slightly more difficult, however, with the high quality road win in Columbus. This may be a more critical game for the Pittsburgh season, needing to stop the slide and get some confidence back and a high profile home win in primetime would be just what the team needs. Virginia Tech has been one of the most consistently successful programs in the nation the last two decades and the Hokies have posted plenty of big primetime wins over the years.

Virginia Tech Historical Trends: The Hokies are 0-5 ATS at Pittsburgh since 1997 and 1-6 ATS in the series in any venue since 1999, losing four of the last five meetings S/U going back to 2001. Virginia Tech is 1-6 ATS as a road favorite since 2012 after going 21-7 ATS as a road favorite from 2004 to 2011.

Pittsburgh Historical Trends: The Panthers are 23-16 ATS as a home underdog since 1996, but just 25-29-1 ATS at home overall since 2006. Pittsburgh is just 3-6-1 ATS at home since the start of last season.

 

[CNOTES]

Pac-12 Report - Week 8

October 15, 2014


The Pac-12 had much better results after a black eye two weeks ago, as Oregon, Stanford and USC each returned to the winner's circle. Washington has also come out of nowhere and is front and center in the Pac-12 race, thumping California and dropping them down a few pegs last weekend on their home turf. We'll really get an idea of who the contenders and pretenders are after this weekend's slate of games.

2014 PAC-12 STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under

Arizona 5-1 2-1 2-4 2-4

Arizona State 4-1 2-1 2-3 3-2

California 4-2 2-2 4-2 4-2

Colorado 2-4 0-3 3-3 3-3

Oregon 5-1 2-1 2-4 2-3-1

Oregon State 4-1 1-1 2-3 2-3

Southern California 4-2 3-1 4-2 3-3

Stanford 4-2 2-1 3-3 0-5

UCLA 4-2 1-2 1-5 2-3-1

Utah 4-1 1-1 4-1 2-3

Washington 5-1 1-1 3-3 1-5

Washington State 2-5 1-3 3-4 3-4


Utah at Oregon State (Thurs. - Pac-12 Network, 10:00 p.m. ET)

The Utes carry a Top 20 rankings into Corvallis Thursday night, but the team is still working to improve. QB Kendal Thompson is expected to make his first career start Thursday, replacing the ineffective Travis Wilson. It was Thompson who came on and led the Utes to a shocking road win at UCLA last time out. Oregon State won its last game in Colorado Oct. 4, rebounding for a setback at USC in which the Beavers were trashed 35-10. Utah is 4-0 ATS in the past four against teams with a winning overall record, and 4-1 ATS in the past five. However, they're just 4-10 ATS in the past 14 conference games. Oregon State is just 3-7 ATS in their past 10 at Reser Stadium, and 2-5 ATS in their past seven home games against a team with a winning road record. However, they are an impressive 16-5 ATS in the past 21 games following a bye.


UCLA at California (ABC/ESPN2, 3:30 p.m. ET)

UCLA hits the road for Berkeley looking to stop a two-game losing streak. Cal crashed back to Earth in a big way last week, getting humbled by Washington by a 31-7 score. The Golden Bears started out 3-0 ATS, but they're just 1-2 ATS over the past three. Conversely, the Bruins have managed just one cover in six tries this season. California is just 4-12 ATS in the past 16 against a team with a winning overall record, and 4-14 ATS in the past 18 conference games. The home team has managed to cover four straight in this series, and the Bruins are just 2-6 ATS in their past eight trips to Berkeley. Currently, UCLA finds itself as a touchdown favorite on the road. The underdog is also 12-5-1 ATS in the past 18 meetings in the series.



Colorado at Southern California (Pac-12 Network, 6:00 p.m.)

The Buffaloes of Colorado might be regretting their decision to join the Pac-12, at least on the football side of things. They haven't been much of a factor, and are again winless in three games to start this season in conference play. However, on a positive note, Colorado has covered three of its past four games. USC has alternated wins and losses over the past four games, and alternated covers, too. At home this season they are 2-1 SU/ATS. Over the past 11 Pac-12 conference games, the Trojans have pulled off covers in eight games, and they're 6-2 ATS in their past eight at the Coliseum.


Washington at Oregon (FOX Sports 1, 8:00 p.m.)

It seems like Washington has come out of nowhere, rolling out to a 5-1 record overall. They face their biggest test at Oregon Saturday in a game which could really re-establish the program as a national contender. The Huskies smashed Cal 31-7 last week on the road, and they have covered each of their two conference games this season while the 'under' has hit in four straight, and five of six this season. Oregon restored order last week at UCLA, winning and covering after their shocking loss to Arizona Oct. 2. The Ducks are still just 3-8 ATS in the past 11, however, and 1-5 ATS in their past six home games. Autzen Stadium has been a house of horrors for U-Dub, however, as the Huskies are 0-5-1 ATS in their past six trips to Eugene. Overall, Washington is just 1-9-1 ATS in the past 11 against Oregon.


Stanford at Arizona State (ESPN, 10:30 p.m.)

This Pac-12 tilt will be one of the most interesting of the weekend. Neither team can afford a second loss in Pac-12 play, if they wish to remain in the hunt for a berth in the conference title game. Stanford was impressive last time out against Washington State, winning 34-17, barely covering for some, pushing for others. Their defense continues to be suffocating, posting a fifth straight under. In fact, the Cardinal have allowed 17 or fewer points in each of their six games this season. AZ State has gotten solid play from backup QB Mike Bercovici over the past couple of games, as he subs for the injured QB Taylor Kelly. Arizona State has scored 38 or more points in four wins this season. In this series, Stanford is 3-0-1 ATS in the past four meetings, and the favorite is 5-1-1 ATS in the past seven in this series. The home team has managed a solid 9-3-1 ATS in the past 13 meetings, while the under is 5-2 in the past seven battles.

 

[CNOTES]

ACC Report - Week 8

October 15, 2014


The Atlantic Coast Conference has a pretty exciting slate of games on tap for this weekend. It all kicks off with Thursday night action, and an important game for Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech. Both teams can ill-afford a second conference loss, especially the Panthers. The Clemson-Boston College game will also be intriguing for various reasons, and the Georgia Tech-North Carolina game should be exciting if you enjoy offense. The weekend wraps up with a marquee national game, as heavyweights Notre Dame and Florida State try to knock each other out of the playoff picture.


2014 ACC STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under

Boston College 4-2 1-1 4-2 2-3-1

Clemson 4-2 3-1 4-2 3-3

Duke 5-1 1-1 3-2-1 1-4

Florida State 6-0 4-0 1-5 3-3

Georgia Tech 5-1 2-1 3-3 3-3

Louisville 5-2 3-2 5-2 1-6

Miami (Fla.) 4-3 1-2 3-4 3-4

North Carolina 2-4 0-3 1-5 2-3

North Carolina State 4-3 0-3 3-4 3-4

Pittsburgh 3-3 1-1 2-3-1 2-3-1

Syracuse 2-4 0-2 2-4 2-3-1

Virginia 4-2 2-0 5-0-1 3-3

Virginia Tech 4-2 1-1 3-3 2-3

Wake Forest 2-4 0-2 3-3 1-5



Virginia Tech at Pittsburgh (Thurs. - ESPN, 7:30p.m. ET)

The Hokies hit the road for the Steel City trying to make the public happy. It appears Virginia Tech is being backed nearly two-to-one as a road underdog. However, they're just 4-11 ATS in their past 15 road games, and 2-5 ATS in their past seven ACC contests. However, they usually do save their best for Thursday night, as Frank Beamer's bunch is 20-8 ATS in their past 28 Thursday night games. Pitt hasn't been much better lately. After a 3-0 start to the season, they have dropped three in a row, and they're 0-3-1 ATS over the past four. However, the Panthers are 9-1 ATS in their past 10 home games against a team with a winning road record. In this series, the home team is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings, with the Hokies going 1-6 ATS in the past seven, and 0-5 ATS in their past five trips to Pittsburgh.



Syracuse at Wake Forest (ESPN3, 12:00 p.m. ET)

If you're a fan of offense, you probably won't want to tune into this game. The under is 3-1-1 in the past five games for Syracuse, and the under is 20-6 in the past 26 for Wake Forest. In addition, the under is 21-8 for the Demon Deacons in their past 29 ACC contests, and 7-1 in their past eight home games. The Syracuse offense, which wasn't that great to start, has been in a bit of disarray with QB Terrel Hunt (leg) going down to a fractured leg. They have scored 20 or fewer points in four straight games (all losses), and they're just 1-3 ATS during that span. Wake hasn't been much better, winning just once in the past four, but they are 3-1 ATS during the stretch.


Virginia at Duke (ESPN3, 12:30 p.m.)

I am personally looking forward to this game, mainly because I'll be in attendance. The Cavaliers hit the road for just the second time this season, and first time since Sept. 20, a loss at Brigham Young. UVA have been cover kings this season, going 5-0-1 ATS officially, and 6-0 ATS at certain shops. Meanwhile, just when you thought Duke was about to revert back to its 'old' form, they end a 10-year losing streak against Georgia Tech on the road last week. Following a setback in Miami, the Blue Devils were in a tough spot, but they came away with a 31-25 road win against the Ramblin' Wreck to keep themselves very much front and center in the Coastal Division. Duke is 3-1 ATS over the past four games, and the under has the same 3-1 record over the stretch. UVA is 3-0-1 ATS over the past four ACC games, and 5-0-1 ATS in the past six against a team with a winning record, while going 5-2 ATS in the past seven road contests. However, in the month of October, UVA is just 1-5-2 ATS in the past eight. Duke is 7-1 ATS in the past eight against winning teams, and 16-4-1 ATS in the past 21 in October. They're also 11-3-1 ATS in the past 15 overall, and 15-5-1 ATS in the past 21 at home.



North Carolina State at Louisville (ESPN3, 3:30 p.m.)

Things have gone south in a hurry in Raleigh. After a 4-0 start, and a close loss against then top-ranked Florida State, the Wolfpack laid an egg at Clemson, and then were routed in a soggy game at home against Boston College last week. N.C. State is 3-9 ATS in the past 12, 1-6 ATS in the past seven conference games, and 2-6 ATS in the past eight agaisnt winning teams. Louisville is 4-0 ATS in the past four against a team with a winning mark, and 7-2 ATS in the past nine overall. They're also 16-5 ATS in their past 21 games stretching back to the AAC/Big East. The Cardinals are favored by two touchdowns in this game, and Louisville is 2-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite or more this season.



Clemson at Boston College (ESPNU, 3:30 p.m.)

The Clemson offense had been on a roll since QB Deshaun Watson (finger) took the reins, but he suffered a small broken bone in his throwing hand last week against Louisville. He needed surgery to have four screws put into his finger, and he will be sidelined up to a month. The team turns back to senior QB Cole Stoudt to run things. In three games Stoudt has finished, the Tigers are just 1-2 ATS. BC was impressive in a 30-14 win at N.C. State last weekend, and they're now 7-3 ATS in their past 10 conference tilts, and 7-3 ATS in the past 10 against teams with a winning record. Keep in mind that BC is also 10-4 ATS in their past 14 home games, including 5-0 ATS in their past five at home gainst a team with a winning road record. The Eagles are a five-point dog at home Saturday, but it looks like a nearly 60-40 split backing Clemson.



Georgia Tech at North Carolina (ESPNU, 7:00 p.m.)

Georgia Tech looks to get back on track after its first setback of the season, and what better team to face than UNC and its leaky defense. Opponents have hung 50 or more points on the Tar Heels in three of the past four games, and they have given up at least 27 points in all six games this season. While UNC has dropped four in a row, the offense did come alive for 43 points at Notre Dame last weekend for their first cover in six tries this season. Georgia Tech has scored at least 25 points in all six games this year, although the under has cashed in three consecutive games.



Notre Dame at Florida State (ABC, 8:00 p.m.)

The game everyone is looking forward to this weekend will be in Tallahassee, when the Irish and Seminoles renew acquaintances. Notre Dame might have been looking ahead last week, as they barely dispatched a poor UNC team, 50-43. Meanwhile, FSU hit the road for Syracuse, and won by 18. However, they failed to cover for the fifth time in six games. They're just 1-4 ATS this season as a double-digit favorite, and they're just 1-2 ATS in three home games overall. The Irish are 5-0 ATS in their past five against a team with a winning home record, and 3-1-1 ATS in their past five following up an ATS loss. The 'Noles have managed a 1-6 ATS mark in their past seven overall, but they are 5-2 ATS in their past seven against a team with a winning record.

 

[CNOTES]

Tech Trends - Week 8

October 15, 2014

Thursday, October 16

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend


VIRGINIA TECH at PITT...

Beamer was 0-6 as visiting chalk past two seasons before win in role at UNC, and VPI has covered first two on road in 2014. Home team has won and covered last two meetings.
Slight to Pitt, based on team trends.


UTAH at OREGON STATE...

OSU has won and covered past two years vs. Utes, though it was wild 51-48 OT win LY. Riley only 4-7 last 11 as chalk, Utah 4-1 vs. line TY.
Utah, based on recent trends.


Friday, October 17

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend


FRESNO STATE at BOISE STATE...

TBoise 7-1 SU and vs. line last 8 vs. Fresno. Chalk is 6-1 vs. line in Fresno games TY, Bulldogs no covers last four as dog.
Boise State, based on series trends.


TEMPLE at HOUSTON...

Owls 12-6 vs. line for Matt Rhule, now 7-0 vs. line away during that span.
Temple, based on team trends.


Saturday, October 18

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend


MARSHALL at FIU...

Herd has now covered five straight and two straight as visiting chalk after 1-6 mark prior seven in role. Improving FIU has covered 6 of last seven TY.
Slight to FIU, based on team trends.


SYRACUSE at WAKE FOREST...

Cuse 2-4 vs. line last six TY. Also 0-2 as chalk TY but 5-2 last seven in role.
Slight to Wake, based on Cuse shortcomings.


MIAMI-OHIO at NORTHERN ILLINOIS...

NIU no covers last three TY after 8-2 previous ten vs. spread in reg. season. RedHawks have covered 2 of 3 on road TY for new HC Chuck Martin, but were 2-11 in role previous two seasons.
Slight to Miami, based on recent trends.


AKRON at OHIO...

Solich 5-1 vs. line last six in series, but Bobcats only 1-5 vs. line last six TY and 3-9 last 12 on board since mid 2013.
Slight to Akron, based on recent trends.


PURDUE at MINNESOTA...

Gophers 8-3 vs. line as host since LY. Kill also 10-4 last 14 as chalk. Improved Purdue has covered 4 of last 5 TY and 7-3 last 10 as road doggie.
Slight to Minnesota, based on recent trends.


IOWA at MARYLAND...

The road team is 5-1 vs. line in Iowa games this season (Hawks 2-0 vs. line away). Ferentz has now covered eight straight away from Iowa City. Terps 2-5 vs. line last 7 at home.
Iowa, based on team trends.


BAYLOR at WEST VIRGINIA...

Briles 2-1 as road chalk TY but was 1-7 in previous eight in role entering 2014.
WVU, based on extended trends.


VIRGINIA at DUKE...

Duke 13-4 vs. spread as host since 2012. Cutcliffe has also won and covered last two and five of six vs. Cavs since arriving at Durham in 2008. Cavs are 5-1 vs. line TY, however.
Duke, based on series trends.


GEORGIA TECH at NORTH CAROLINA..

Tech 3-0-1 as road chalk since 2012; UNC 1-5 vs. line TY. Paul Johnson 5-0 SU, 4-0-1 vs. line against Heels since 2009.
GT, based on series and recent trends.


NC STATE at LOUISVILLE...

Pack 2-7-1 as road dog since 2011.
'Ville, based on team trends.


EASTERN MICHIGAN at UMASS...

Mass now has SU win and has covered 5 of last 6. EMU 8-21-1 vs. line since 2012.
UMass, based on team trends.


WESTERN MICHIGAN at BOWLING GREEN...

Spread revelation WMU is spotless 6-0 vs. line this season!
WMU, based on recent trends.


BALL STATE at CENTRAL MICHIGAN...

Cards are rather startling 39-15-1 vs. line as visitor since 2006 (2-1 TY).
Ball State, based on team trends.


GEORGIA vs. ARKANSAS (at Little Rock)...

Bielema has covered five straight TY and is 6-2 last 8 on board. Richt only 1-5 as chalk away from Athens since LY.
Arkansas, based on team trends.


SAN JOSE STATE at WYOMING...

SJSU no covers last three on road, but if Wyo chalk note is 10-5 last 15 as road dog. Pokes 4-7 as Laramie chalk since 2012.
Slight to SJSU, based on extended trends.


NEW MEXICO at AIR FORCE...

Davie has covered last two years vs. Force and beat Falcs SU LY. Davie 5-2 last seven as road dog. Falco 3-0 SU and vs. line as host TY.
Slight to UNM, based on recent trends.


SOUTH FLORIDA at TULSA...

Golden Hurricane 5-13 SU and vs. line last 18 on board. Tulsa 2-7 SU and vs. line as host since LY. Shocker trend...
USF 5-1 vs. line on road since LY!
USF, based on team trends.


UTSA at LA TECH...

Coker no covers last four this season. Skip 5-1 vs. spread TY in big rebound for Tech.
La Tech, based on recent trends.


SOUTHERN MISS at NORTH TEXAS...

UNT down TY but 7-2 last nine as home chalk. USM improved from wretched recent form but still just 2-3-1 vs. line TY and only 8-21-1 vs. line since 2012.
UNT, based on team trends.


CINCINNATI at SMU...

Ponies 1-4 vs. line but did get cover in last game against ECU. Tuberville no covers last four TY and just 1-3 as road chalk since LY.
Slight to Cincy, based on recent SMU woes.


APP STATE at TROY...

App 1-3-1 vs. line in debut year (0-2-1 away), cover vs. Campbell Camels. But Troy 10-23 last 33 as chalk.
App State, based on Troy negatives.


NEVADA at BYU...

Cougs just 3-8 last 11 on board. Pack has covered 4 of last 5 away from Reno.
Nevada, based on team trends.


ARMY at KENT STATE...

Kent only 1-5 vs. line TY and 1-7 vs. spread at Dix Stadium since LY. But Army no covers first three away TY and no covers last 13 as visitor (did cover neutral LY vs. La Tech).
Army, based on Kent home negatives.


STANFORD at ARIZONA STATE...

Tree won and covered vs. ASU twice LY, but no covers first two away TY and just 2-6 last 8 as chalk away from Palo Alto. ASU no covers last three at Tempe.
Slight to ASU, based on team trends.


WASHINGTON at OREGON...

Ducks have won and covered last 10 vs. Huskies. But Chris Petersen was 2-0 SU and vs. line vs. Ducks while at Boise, and Oregon now 2-10 vs. points last 12 reg.-season games. Huskies 5-1 as home dog since 2012.
UW, based on recent trends.


UCLA at CAL...

Bruins 1-5 vs. line in 2014, Cal 4-1 vs. spread. Bruins have lost last 7 SU trips to Berkeley, 1-6 vs. line in those games.
Cal, based on team and series trends.


UAB at MTSU...

Blazers 2-0 as road dog TY for new HC Clark, but MTSU 6-3 vs. spread last nine at Murfreesboro.
UAB, based on recent trends.


RUTGERS at OHIO STATE...

Urban Meyer 4-1 vs. line this season. 'Gers 9-3 as visiting dog since 2011 (2-0 TY).
'Gers, based on road dog mark.


TEXAS A&M at ALABAMA...

Ags have covered both vs. Bama since joining SEC and won at Tuscaloosa in 2012. But A&M only 7-13 vs. spread since 2013 and no covers last 3 as road dog. Nick 7-3 last 10 as home chalk.
Bama, based on recent trends.


COLORADO at SOUTHERN CAL...

Trojans 12-7 as Coliseum chalk since 2011 (2-1 TY for Sark). But Buffs 6-3 vs. line last nine for Mike M and have covered 3 of last 4 as Pac-12 road dog.
Slight to CU, based on team trends.


MICHIGAN STATE at INDIANA...

Dantonio 9-2 as visiting chalk since 2010. But home team has covered last three in series.
Slight to MSU, based on road chalk marks.


CLEMSON at BOSTON COLLEGE ...

Dabo 5-2 as visiting chalk since 2012. BC 11-5 vs. spread as host since 2012 (2-2 TY).
BC, based on extended trends.


KANSAS STATE at OKLAHOMA...

Visiting team has covered all four meetings since Bill Snyder returned to K-State sideline in 2009. Snyder 10-1 as visiting dog since 2010.
K-State, based on team trends.


NEW MEXICO STATE at IDAHO...

NMSU has covered last four meetings. Vandals 2-10 vs. spread last 12 at Kibbie (0-2 TY).
NMSU. based on series and team trends.


GEORGIA STATE at SOUTH ALABAMA...

Road team 5-0 vs. line in USA games this season. Though Jags 11-5 vs. line last 16 overall since early 2013. GSU 11-2 last 13 as DD dog.
Slight to GSU, based on team trends.


WESTERN KENTUCKY at FLORIDA ATLANTIC...

Owls 5-1 vs. line last six at Boca Raton. WKU just 3-6 vs. spread last nine away.
Slight to FAU, based on team trends.


UTAH STATE at COLORADO STATE...

CSU on 18-5 spread uptick since late 2012, though did lose 13-0 and no cover at USU last November. Rams 9-2 last 11 vs. spread at Fort Collins.
CSU, based on team trends.


TENNESSEE at OLE MISS...

Butch 2-4 as road dog since LY (1-1 TY), just 4-7 overall vs. line last 11 since mid 2013. Hugh Freeze 6-0 SU and vs. line TY, now 32-11 vs. spread since 2011 at Ark State & Ole Miss.
Ole Miss, based on Hugh Freeze marks.


IOWA STATE at TEXAS...

Texas 12-22 vs. spread at Austin since 2009 (1-2 TY). ISU 10-7-1 as road dog since 2011.
ISU, based on team trends.


MISSOURI at FLORIDA...

Muschamp no covers last 2 vs. Mizzou and 6-16-1 overall vs. spread last 23 on board. Pinkel seven straight covers away from home!
Mizzou, based on team trends.


KANSAS at TEXAS TECH...

Red Raiders 2-9 vs. line last 11 reg.-season vs. spread. Also 1-5 last six as Lubbock chalk for Kingsbury. KU 2-0 vs. line for Bowen!
KU, based on Texas Tech spread woes.


OKLAHOMA STATE at TCU...

Gundy 5-2 as dog since 2011. Pokes have also won and covered last two years vs. TCU. But Frogs hopping in 2014 at 4-0 SU and vs. line, far cry from 8-16-1 spread mark previous two years.
Slight to OSU, based on team and series trends.


TULANE at UCF...

Wave 0-3 vs. points away TY. UCF 18-9 last 27 as home chalk.
UCF, based on team trends.


NEBRASKA at NORTHWESTERN..
.
Pat Fitz now 2-1 vs. line last 3 after 1-12 spread run...
which was preceded by 13-1 spread run! Heartbreak Hail Mary loss for Cats vs. Huskers LY. Fitz has covered all three vs. Bo Pelini since 2011. Pelini 5-1 vs. line TY after late backdoor at MSU, and 6-1 vs. line away from Lincoln since LY.
Northwestern, based on series trends.


KENTUCKY at LSU...

Cats 5-1 SU and vs. line for Stoops as they close in on bowl. UK 6-1 last 7 vs. line since late LY.
UK, based on team trends.


NOTRE DAME at FLORIDA STATE...

Golson 10-5-1 vs. line his last 16 reg.-season games. Brian Kelly 8-6 as dog with Irish. Jimbo 1-6 last 7 vs. line since late LY.
Notre Dame, based on tam trends.


HAWAII at SAN DIEGO STATE...

Home team 6-0 vs. line in Hawaii games TY (Chow 0-2 away). Aztecs have won and covered last two years vs. UH but took OT LY.
Slight to SDSU, based on series and team trends.

 

[CNOTES]

Midseason Report

October 15, 2014


SCANDALS

And here we thought the NFL was the place this fall for scandal and controversy! It turns out that college football is hardly immune to such developments, either, thanks to a couple of late-week storylines that include enough intrigue to trigger significant repercussions perhaps even beyond the fall.

The beneficiaries of recent news are conspiracy theorists, who have just been thrown some red meat from a pair of stories in the Sunshine State. First is the matter of Florida QB Treon Harris, who was reinstated by the Gator football team last Friday (but held out of Saturday's game vs. LSU) after being suspended early last week following a sexual assault claim. Harris, 19, was originally iced last Monday when university police began to investigate an accusation that Harris assaulted a female student at an on-campus residence hall early Sunday morning. This less than 24 hours after Harris was the hero of a 10-9 win at Tennessee, coming off the bench to relieve ineffective starter Jeff Driskel and lead the Gators to victory. But Harris' accuser would withdraw her complaint later in the week and decide not pursue criminal charges (though maintaining the right to do so in the future).

Anyone who knows the sort of football-crazed environment around Gainesville would be understandably skeptical about such developments. Let's just say that we are relatively sure that Gloria Allred did not get in touch with the accuser before she changed her mind. In these hyper-sensitive times, many of our SEC sources believe the last has not been heard from this storyline.

Meanwhile, generating a bit more publicity, about 150 miles to the west in Tallahassee, was news that Florida State was re-opening its inquiry into the behavior of Heisman-winning QB Jameis Winston, whose off-field escapades over the past two years have been enough to fill a tabloid. Winston is scheduled to face a disciplinary hearing in which he might be charged with up to four violations of FSU's student conduct code, two of which involve allegations of sexual conduct stemming from a December 2012 incident.

Winston's antics have been well-publicized, though to date the Heisman winner has avoided any finding of fault in this potentially most-serious of his transgressions. Remember, in December 2013, State Attorney Willie Meggs announced that Winston would not be criminally charged with sexual assault in relation to that 2012 incident. While the statute of limitations on charging Winston will not expire until 2017, there is still no indication at this time that local law enforcement plans to re-open the case.

But FSU, sensing perhaps that it could end up in the crossfire of various activist groups, and perhaps in damage-control prevention consultation with NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell, has scheduled a new disciplinary hearing that would examine whether Winston, who played for the Seminoles last Saturday vs. Syracuse, violated code of conduct rules. They're already walking on eggshells in Tallahassee because the school is also the subject of an ongoing probe by the Office of Civil Rights, an agency of the US Department of Education, into the university's compliance with Title IX.

There is a grassy-knoll/conspiratorial angle to the Winston storyline, too, especially with reports in the New York Times and Fox Sports that portray FSU as impeding past investigations into the conduct of Winston and many other Seminole football players.

What should disturb football fans is that Florida State is certainly not the only gridiron powerhouse to bend over backwards to circumvent the legal process and protect its players in trouble. But the NY Times piece, written by Mike McIntire and Walt Bogdanovich and first published last Friday, focuses specifically on FSU and goes into some disturbing detail about the lengths to which the school has apparently gone in reaction to numerous occasions of wrongdoing by Seminoles football players, from criminal mischief and motor-vehicle theft to domestic violence. With local law enforcement apparently going to great lengths to find reasons not to charge football heroes like Winston, arrests have been avoided, investigations have stalled, and, according to McIntire & Bogdanovich, players have escaped serious consequences.

McIntire and Bogdanovich do point out that not all troubled 'Noles have been able to sidestep prosecution. Over the last three years, at least nine players have been arrested on charges ranging from sexual assault to being an accessory to a fatal shooting. But on other occasions, despite strong evidence, investigations have been delayed and sometimes derailed.

"In a community (Tallahassee) whose self-image and economic well-being are so tightly bound to the fortunes of the nation's top-ranked college football team," wrote McIntire & Bogdanovich, "law enforcement officers are finely attuned to a suspect's football connections."

We expect another angle of the FSU storyline is going to generate considerable attention in the near future, too, regarding Associate AD Monk Bonasorte, a convicted felon who in 1987 pleaded guilty to cocaine distribution and was sentenced to five years probation and 1000 hours of community service. This is the fellow who oversees the compliance department at FSU. Meanwhile, Seminole AD Stan Wilcox has been mostly mum. Something tells us this FSU storyline isn't going to disappear quietly now that national media, and not just the local reporters who are used to yielding to FSU's desires in Tallahassee, have their claws into the details.

Stay tuned.

Meanwhile, as we approach the halfway point in the college season, there have been numerous surprising and disappointing teams. A quick review of the most-pronounced of those follows.

SURPRISES

We can state the obvious with teams such as Mississippi State (6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS), Ole Miss (6-0, 6-0), and TCU (4-1, 5-0).

But there are plenty of others flying under the radar. Colorado State (5-1, 5-1) now has an 18-5 spread mark for HC Jim McElwain dating to late 2012.

FBS newcomer and Sun Belt member Georgia Southern (5-2, 5-2) has not skipped a beat for new HC Willie Fritz (ex-Sam Houston State).

Skip Holtz' La Tech (3-3, 5-1) has covers at Oklahoma and Auburn and a hot new QB in Iowa transfer Cody Sokol.

UAB (4-2, 4-2) is turning heads with its big-play offense for new HC Bill Clark.

Western Michigan (3-3, 6-0) owns two of the breakout stars in the MAC, soph QB Zach Terrell & frosh RB Jarvion Franklin.

UMass (1-6, 5-2) has upgraded for new/old HC Mark Whipple.

Kentucky (5-1, 5-1) looks like it will be bowling in HC Mark Stoops' 2nd year.

Virginia (4-2, 5-1) has played well enough to take HC Mike London off the hot seat.

Ron Turner's FIU (3-4, 6-1) has covered 6 of 7.

DISAPPOINTMENTS

Expected ACC Coastal contender North Carolina (2-4, 1-5) is now going to have to scramble just to get bowl-eligible.

Florida (3-2, 2-3) still struggles on offense, and HC Will Muschamp is on the hot seat.

Alabama (5-1, 1-4) is having its hands full in the SEC West.

Like Bama, Florida State (6-0, 1-5) has just one spread cover.

UCLA (4-2, 1-5) is now out of "Final Four" talk, as its gambling "D" has had a bit too much Hollywood in it, while the OL has offered spotty protection to QB Brett Hundley.

South Carolina (3-3, 1-5) already has three league losses as it competes in the "lesser" SEC East.

And Vanderbilt (2-5, 3-4) has dropped considerably under new HC Derek Mason.

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF
Short Sheet

Week 8

Thurs, Oct. 16

Virginia Tech at Pittsburgh, 7:30 ET
Virginia Tech: 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in road games off a road win
Pittsburgh: 9-0 OVER (+9.0 Units) in home games after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games

Utah at Oregon State, 10:00 ET
Utah: 30-15 ATS (+13.5 Units) after a bye week
Oregon State: 31-16 ATS (+13.4 Units) in home games after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins


Fri, Oct. 17

Fresno State at Boise State, 8:00 ET
Fresno St: 11-24 ATS (-15.4 Units) in road games after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games
Boise St: 56-31 ATS (+21.9 Units) after playing 2 straight conference games

Temple at Houston, 9:00 ET
Temple: 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a road underdog
Houston: 31-16 ATS (+13.4 Units) in home games after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins


Sat, Oct. 18

Marshall at Florida International, 6:00 ET
Marshall: 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) after outgaining opp by 225 or more total yards in their previous game
Florida Int: 27-45 ATS (-22.5 Units) after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses

Syracuse at Wake Forest, 12:00 ET
Syracuse: 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) off a loss against a conference rival
Wake Forest: 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest

Miami Ohio at Northern Illinois, 5:00 ET
Miami OH: 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) after gaining 300 or more passing yards in 3 straight games
N Illinois: 48-29 ATS (+16.1 Units) in weeks 5 through 9

Akron at Ohio, 2:00 ET
Akron: 15-3 UNDER (+11.7 Units) against conference opponents
Ohio: 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) against conference opponents

Purdue at Minnesota, 12:00 ET
Purdue: 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after a playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored
Minnesota: 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in the second half of the season

Iowa at Maryland, 12:00 ET
Iowa: 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after having won 3 out of their last 4 games
Maryland: 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in home games after a loss by 28 or more points

Baylor at West Virginia, 12:00 ET
Baylor: 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 63
W Virginia: 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after having won 2 out of their last 3 games

Virginia at Duke, 12:30 ET
Virginia: 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) after covering the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games
Duke: 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) as a favorite

Georgia Tech at North Carolina, 7:00 ET
Georgia Tech: 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 4 straight games
N Carolina: 27-13 ATS (+12.7 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games

North Carolina State at Louisville, 3:30 ET
N Carolina St: 23-9 ATS (+13.1 Units) off 2 or more consecutive unders
Louisville: 4-16 ATS (-13.6 Units) in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 49

Eastern Michigan at Massachusetts, 3:00 ET
E Michigan: 8-23 ATS (-17.3 Units) off a home win
Mass: 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest

Western Michigan at Bowling Green, 2:00 ET
W Michigan: 8-1 OVER (+6.9 Units) in road games when playing on a Saturday
Bowling Green: 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games

Ball State at Central Michigan, 3:30 ET
Ball St: 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in road games after allowing 475 or more total yards in their previous game
C Michigan: 7-0 UNDER (+7.0 Units) as a home favorite

Georgia at Arkansas, 4:00 ET
Georgia: 24-10 ATS (+13.0 Units) in road games after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games
Arkansas: 45-27 ATS (+15.3 Units) in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread

San Jose State at Wyoming, 4:00 ET
San Jose St: 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) after playing a game at home
Wyoming: 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) after the first month of the season

New Mexico at Air Force, 3:30 ET
New Mexico: 39-22 ATS (+14.8 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points
Air Force: 9-22 ATS (-15.2 Units) in all games

South Florida at Tulsa, 12:00 ET
S Florida: 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) as a favorite
Tulsa: 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) when the total is between 49.5 and 56

Tex San Antonio at Louisiana Tech, 12:00 ET
Tex San Antonio: 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points
Louisiana Tech: 16-30 ATS (-17.0 Units) off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival

Southern Miss at North Texas, 7:00 ET
S Miss: 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) in all lined games
N Texas: 12-1 ATS (+10.9 Units) when the total is between 49.5 and 56

Cincinnati at SMU, 3:30 ET
Cincinnati: 13-4 UNDER (+8.6 Units) after having lost 3 out of their last 4 games
SMU: 16-30 ATS (-17.0 Units) off a road blowout loss by 21 points or more

Appalachian State at Troy, 3:00 ET
Appalachian St: 1-6 ATS as an underdog
Troy: 10-2 OVER (+7.8 Units) as a favorite

Nevada at BYU, 10:15 ET
Nevada: 10-2 UNDER (+7.8 Units) after allowing 475 or more total yards/game in their last 3 games
BYU: 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better

Army at Kent State, 3:30 ET
Army: 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games in non-conference games
Kent State: 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in all lined games

Stanford at Arizona State, 10:30 ET
Stanford: 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in road games off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival
Arizona St: 8-1 OVER (+6.9 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games

Washington at Oregon, 8:00 ET
Washington: 26-11 OVER (+13.9 Units) in road games in weeks 5 through 9
Oregon: 57-36 ATS (+17.4 Units) in weeks 5 through 9

UCLA at California, 3:30 ET
UCLA: 30-16 UNDER (+12.4 Units) after allowing 37 points or more last game
California: 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) against conference opponents

UAB at Mid Tennessee State, 3:30 ET
UAB: 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) in road games off a win against a conference rival
Mid Tenn State: 17-6 UNDER (+10.4 Units) after allowing 37 points or more last game

Rutgers at Ohio State, 3:30 ET
Rutgers: 10-2 UNDER (+7.8 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread
Ohio State: 35-20 ATS (+13.0 Units) in home games off a road win

Texas AM at Alabama, 3:30 ET
Texas AM: 17-5 OVER (+11.5 Units) off an upset loss as a favorite
Alabama: 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) when the total is between 56.5 and 63

Colorado at USC, 6:00 ET
Colorado: 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) in road games off 2 or more consecutive overs
USC: 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins

Michigan State at Indiana, 3:30 ET
Michigan St: 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival
Indiana: 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) after gaining 300 or more rushing yards last game

Clemson at Boston College, 3:30 ET
Clemson: 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) after allowing 275 or less total yards in 2 consecutive games
Boston College: 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games after playing a conference game

Kansas State at Oklahoma, 12:00 ET
Kansas State: 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) after playing a conference game
Oklahoma: 10-2 OVER (+7.8 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread

New Mexico State at Idaho, 5:00 ET
New Mexico St: 2-14 ATS (-13.4 Units) in road games after allowing 31 points or more in 3 straight games
Idaho: 16-32 ATS (-19.2 Units) as a favorite

Georgia State at South Alabama, 7:30 ET
Georgia State: 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) after allowing 31 points or more in 2 straight games
South Alabama: 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) in October games

Western Kentucky at Florida Atlantic, 12:00 ET
W Kentucky: 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road games after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers
Florida ATL: 11-0 ATS (+11.0 Units) off a road loss

Utah State at Colorado State, 7:00 ET
Utah St: 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after having won 4 out of their last 5 games
Colorado St: 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) as a favorite

Tennessee at Mississippi, 7:00 ET
Tennessee: 29-12 ATS (+15.8 Units) in road games in weeks 5 through 9
Mississippi: 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in October games

Iowa State at Texas, 8:00 ET
Iowa St: 11-30 ATS (-22.0 Units) after gaining 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games
Texas: 11-2 OVER (+8.8 Units) in home games after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games

Missouri at Florida, 7:00 ET
Missouri: 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) off a home loss by 14 or more points
Florida: 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) in home games after a loss by 6 or less points

Kansas at Texas Tech, 3:30 ET
Kansas: 42-66 ATS (-30.6 Units) in road lined games
Texas Tech: 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers

Oklahoma State at TCU, 4:00 ET
Oklahoma State: 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) off a win against a conference rival
TCU: 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in home games after having won 3 out of their last 4 games

Tulane at Central Florida, 12:00 ET
Tulane: 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games after scoring and allowing 17 or less points
Central Florida: 19-8 OVER (+10.2 Units) after having won 3 out of their last 4 games

Nebraska at Northwestern, 7:30 ET
Nebraska: 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) after a game where they committed 4 or more turnovers
Northwestern: 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) off 1 or more consecutive unders

Kentucky at LSU, 7:30 ET
Kentucky: 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) against conference opponents
LSU: 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) after a 2 game road trip

Notre Dame at Florida St, 8:00 ET
Notre Dame: 28-10 ATS (+17.0 Units) in road games in weeks 5 through 9
Florida St: 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) in home games after 4 or more consecutive straight up wins

Hawaii at San Diego St, 10:30 ET
Hawaii: 81-55 OVER (+20.5 Units) when playing on a Saturday
San Diego St: 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games

 

[CNOTES]

Mid-Major Money: Big profits from NCAAF small conferences

Team to watch: Boise State Broncos (4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS)

This week: -17 vs. Fresno State

Their most recent game on Oct. 4 saw the Broncos post a season-high 51 points in a win at Nevada as Grant Hedrick threw for 346 yards and Jay Ajayi rushed for 116 of his 152 yards in the second half.

Boise State also welcomed the return of cornerback Cleshawn Page, who had missed three games (knee). Page played sparingly in the first half as a backup but was in there full time in the second. It will not hurt Page or any other Bronco that the team is coming off a bye week.

“I think it came at a really good time,” Hedrick assured, “to get guys rested up a little bit. We (can) kind of focus back on the fundamentals of the game and catch our breath.”

Meanwhile, Fresno State gave up more than 50 points in its first three games and allowed 30 last week during a loss to UNLV as a 10-point favorite. Don’t be fooled by the Bulldogs’ defensive performance against San Diego State running back Donnel Pumphrey on Oct. 3 (season-low 3.9 yards per carry on 24 attempts). The Aztecs started a true freshman at quarterback and—very much unlike Boise State—had no semblance of a passing game to keep the defense honest.

Team to beware: Appalachian State Mountaineers (1-5 SU, 1-5 ATS)

This week: +7 at Troy

A few weeks ago, head coach Scott Satterfield started picking up the pace right away in practices and jumping straight into game situations. His hope was to end a trend of slow starts. It has not worked. Appalachian State fell behind South Alabama 20-0 midway through the second quarter of a blowout loss Oct. 4 and it trailed Liberty 14-7 after one quarter last weekend en route to a 55-48 overtime heartbreaker.

Troy, on the other hand, appears to be playing inspired football in the wake of head coach Larry Blakeney’s announcement last Monday that he will retire at the end of this season. The Trojans responded by winning their first game of 2014, 41-24 over New Mexico State.

App State is 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games and 0-4 ATS in its last four overall. Troy is 4-0 ATS in its last four against the Sun Belt.

Total team: Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (4-3 SU, 5-1-1 O/U)

This week: vs. UAB

Middle Tennessee has made 32 trips to the red zone this season and has scored on 29 of those occasions—including 21 touchdowns. That’s part of the reason why the over is 6-1 ATS in the Blue Raiders’ last seven home games.

UAB’s defense is made to go over the total. It gives up plenty of points (an average of 31.3 in its last three outings), but it has also been known to make the big play. The unit scored a whopping three touchdowns in last weekend’s win over North Texas, two on interceptions and one after a fumble recovery.

The over is 7-0 in the Blazers’ last seven Conference USA games and 5-0 in their last five on the road.

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF

Thursday, October 16

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Game of the Day: Utah at Oregon State
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Utah Utes at Oregon State Beavers (+2.5, 52.5)

Utah quarterback Kendal Thompson is expected to make his first start Thursday when the Utes visit Oregon State, which won last season’s meeting 51-48 in overtime. Thompson, who transferred in the offseason from Oklahoma, replaced an inefficient Travis Wilson and rushed for 83 yards to spark No. 23 Utah’s 30-28 upset of UCLA on Oct. 4. Utes coach Kyle Whittingham hasn’t named a starter for Thursday, but all signs point to Thompson getting the nod.

After opening Pac-12 play with a 35-10 loss at USC, Oregon State bounced back from a with a 36-31 victory at Colorado on Oct. 4. Beavers senior quarterback Sean Mannion threw five touchdowns in last year’s win over Utah, but brings a 5-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio into this season’s matchup. While Mannion and his young receiving corps has struggled throughout the first half of the season, Oregon State ranks second in the Pac-12 in total defense at 331.4 yards allowed per game.

TV: 10 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1.

LINE HISTORY: Utah opened as 2-point road favorites and were bet as high as -3, before settling at -2.5. The total opened at 52 and is now up to 52.5.

INJURY REPORT: Oregon State - OL Garrett Weinreich (questionable Thursday, knee). Utah - N/A.

WEATHER REPORT: It will be mostly cloudy at kickoff with seven mile per hour wind blowing towards the northwest endzone. There will be a slight nine percent chance of rain.

POWER RANKINGS: Utah (-10.5) - Oregon State (-4) + home field (-3) = Oregon State +3.5

ABOUT UTAH (4-1, 4-1 ATS, 2-3 O/U): Running back Devontae Booker had 156 yards on 33 carries against UCLA and could post similar numbers against an Oregon State front seven that is missing two injured starters. The Utes’ defense leads the nation in sacks (5.6 per game) and tackles for loss (10.2 per game), and defensive end Nate Orchard ranks first in the country with 8.5 sacks. The Utes boast one of the top special teams units in the country, led by kicker Andy Phillips and kick returner Kaelin Clay, who leads the Pac-12 in punt return average (23.1).

ABOUT OREGON STATE (4-1, 2-3 ATS, 2-3 O/U): Terron Ward provided a boost for the Beavers’ offense with 102 rushing yards and two touchdowns against Colorado, but Mannion has struggled at times while waiting for receivers such as Victor Bolden and Richard Mullaney to become consistent downfield threats. The Beavers rank second in the league in passing efficiency defense, led by linebackers Michael Doctor, D.J. Alexander and Jabral Johnson. Kicker Trevor Romaine has been on a tear since missing the first two games, going 8-for-8 on extra points and 4-for-4 on field goals, including a 47-yarder.

TRENDS:

* Oregon State is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Utah is 4-0 ATS versus a team with a winning record.
* Under is 7-1 in Utah's last eight games versus a team with a winning record.
* Under is 5-1 in Oregon State's last six home games.

CONSENSUS: Just under 52 percent of wagers are backing Utah at -2.5.

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 8

Thursday's games
Underdogs covered six of last seven Va Tech-Pitt games, winning four of last five SU; Hokies lost last three visits here, by 18-3-31 points, as Pitt won four of last five series games. Tech already won at Ohio State and North Carolina; win at OSU was its first cover in last seven tries as road underdog. Pitt lost last three games, including a horrible loss to Akron at home; they're 0-2 as home favorites this year, 5-4 under Chryst. ACC home favorites are 6-8 vs spread in conference play.

Home side won four of last five Utah-Oregon State games; Utes lost last two visits here 21-7/24-7- they got upset 51-48 at home by Beavers LY. Utah has road wins at Michigan/UCLA; they've failed to cover last four tries as road favorites. OSU is 2-4 in last six tries as home dog; they gave up 66 points in splitting last two games (won 36-31 at Colorado)- they beat San Diego State in only I-A home game. Underdogs are 12-4 vs spread in Pac-12 conference games, 4-2 at home.

 

[CNOTES]

Big Ten Report - Week 8

October 16, 2014


Game of the Week

Michigan State (-13.5) at Indiana – 3:30 p.m. ET

For the second straight week, Michigan State is off another win in which they allowed the inferior opponent to hang around too long. Purdue came back from three touchdowns behind to get the football with a chance to tie or win in the final minute before a pick-six clinched the 45-31 victory for MSU. Sparty had no problem moving the ball against Purdue, notching 532 total yards behind big days by QB Cook (238 pass yds, 3 TD) and RB's Langford & Hill (combined 174 rush yds, 2 TD). It was a bit concerning that the Spartans vaunted defense allowed Purdue to rush for 5.2 YPC and allowed unproven QB Appleby to complete 24-of-37 passes. If Michigan State wants a shot at the Playoff, they'll have to start winning more impressively. The Spartans' 4th ranked scoring offense should have no problem scoring points against this Indiana defense that again ranks at or near the bottom of the B1G in every major statistical category. Last week the Hoosiers allowed a struggling Iowa offense to gain 426 yards and score 45 points in the 16-point Hawkeyes win. Indiana QB Sudfeld separated his shoulder in that loss and will likely miss the remainder of the season. His replacement, Covington, is a true freshman who was recruited to play safety before being moved to the QB position just a few months ago. After replacing Sudfeld last week, Covington completed just 3-of-12 passes for 31 yards with 2 INT. Now he has the seemingly impossible task of going against this 12th ranked MSU defense in his first career start. Indiana will try to get RB Coleman - who leads the FBS in rush yards - going against this MSU run-defense that ranks 5th in rush yards allowed. Michigan State is 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings with Indiana. The Hoosiers are 6-2 ATS in the last eight home games as an underdog of 10+ points.

Ohio State (-19) vs Rutgers – 3:30 p.m. ET

OSU & Rutgers are both off of a bye week entering this weekend's matchup in Columbus. After a poor performance against Virginia Tech in which he completed 9-of-29 passes with 1 TD and 3 INT, OSU's J.T. Barrett has completed 75.2% of his passes for 303 YPG with 14 TD and just 1 INT in the last three games. He was masterful in OSU's win over Maryland, finishing 18-of-23 for 267 yards with 4 TD and 0 INT while scoring 1 rush TD for good measure. The Bucks have now scored 50+ points in three consecutive games as this young offense grows more and more comfortable in Urban Meyer's scheme. Defensively the Buckeyes young group continues to improve and they are off of a game in which they shutdown a solid Maryland offense. They allowed Maryland QB's to complete just 24-of-40 passes for 244 yards with 1 TD and 4 INT. That's a promising development after allowing 352 pass yards and 4 TD to Cincinnati in the prior game. Opponents have had a tough time rushing against this Ohio State defensive front, gaining just 61 YPG on fewer than 3.0 YPC the last three games. The Scarlet Knights are one of the biggest surprises in the B1G with a 5-1 mark at the midway point. Rutgers is off of a bye week after a nice home win over Michigan in its last game. The Scarlet Knights blocked a Michigan field goal late in the 4th quarter and were able to run out the clock for their first conference victory as a member of the B1G. It was a hard fought battle with the reeling Wolverines, but give QB Nova credit for stepping up with 404 pass yards and 3 TD when the running game was seemingly non-existent (74 yards on 2.5 YPC). Nova has been expected to shoulder the load on offense after star RB Paul James went down with a knee injury and he hasn't disappointed. Nova now has 7 TD and 1 INT in his last two games since James went out after tallying 6 TD & 6 INT through the first four games with James in the lineup. The defense will get its toughest test against OSU, but Rutgers appears to be up to the task to slow down Barrett and this pass offense. After allowing Washington State QB Halliday to have a huge day in the opener (532 pass yds, 5 TD), the Scarlet Knights have allowed just 56% completions with 1 pass TD and 3 INT in the last five games. OSU is just 1-4 ATS in the last five B1G home games as a favorite of 17 points or more. Rutgers is 19-5-1 ATS in its last 25 road games as an underdog.

Nebraska (-7) at Northwestern – 7:30 PM ET

Nebraska used the bye week to heal a number of players that were ailing after the Huskers' last game loss to Michigan State. Give Nebraska credit for not quitting against Michigan State in a game where seemingly nothing was going right for the Huskers for the better part of three quarters. Down 3-27 in the 4th quarter, Nebraska fought back and cut the deficit to 22-27 with 3:22 remaining. The Huskers were driving with under a minute remaining before an MSU INT put the game away for good. It was tough sledding all game long for star RB Ameer Abdullah, who gained just 45 rush yards on 24 carries after averaging 166 rush YPG through Nebraska's first five contests. QB Armstrong Jr. was constantly under pressure and completed just 20-of-43 passes for 273 yards with 0 TD and 2 INT. Nebraska's defense played quite well against the Spartans save the three long TD scores. MSU's QB Cook completed just 11-of-29 passes with 1 TD and 1 INT. And if you take away the two long TD runs by MSU, Nebraska allowed just 2.9 YPC to the Spartans. All in all, there are much worse ways to lose and Nebraska went into its bye week knowing it can compete with the B1G elite. This week they travel to Evanston to take on a Northwestern squad off a dispiriting loss to Minnesota. The Wildcats outgained Minnesota 393-274 and held the Gophers vaunted rushing attack to just 121 yards on 3.1 YPC, but a special teams letdown (100 yd kickoff return for TD) after tying the game at 17-17 allowed Minnesota to escape with a seven-point victory. RB Justin Jackson had a nice day with 106 rush yards, but the overall inexplosive nature of their offense prevented Northwestern from putting more than 17 points on the board despite owning the game in every aspect. Northwestern has covered all three meetings with Nebraska since the Huskers became a member of the B1G. The winning margin in those three games has been 3, 1, and 3 points. Northwestern is 0-5 ATS in the last five following a SU loss and just 3-8 ATS in the last 11 conference games. Nebraska has covered five straight road games and is 5-2 ATS in the last seven conference roadies.

Minnesota (-12.5) vs. Purdue – 12:00 p.m. ET

It wasn't pretty, but the Gophers played sound football against Northwestern and came away with the victory. Offensively the Gophers were outgained 393-274 and the rushing attack was stifled for much of the afternoon (121 yards on 3.1 YPC). QB Leidner was unspectacular but efficient as he completed 10-of-15 passes for 153 yards and rushed for two scores. The defense allowed Northwestern QB Siemian to complete 32 passes, but they went for just 269 yards and 1 TD. They also held the Wildcats' rushing attack to just 124 yards on 3.6 YPC. The defensive unit held when necessary, and Minnesota got a decisive 100-yard kickoff return from Jalen Myrick in the fourth quarter to break the 17-17 tie. Now Minnesota sits at 5-1 overall and 2-0 in conference with a shot to officially become bowl eligible with a win over Purdue on Saturday. Things appear to be trending upward for the Boilermakers. Purdue has played well over the last three games even though the results don't show up in the standings. Despite being a heavy road 'dog against MSU last week, the Boilers had a chance to tie or take the lead late in the 4th before a Spartans INT return for TD put the game away for Sparty. QB Appleby was an efficient 24-of-37 for 211 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT - his 2nd consecutive solid performance since becoming the starter. The Boilers, surprisingly, were able to churn out 129 rush yards on 5.2 YPC against this normally unyielding MSU rush defense. RB Akeem Hunt accounted for 96 rush yards on just 12 carries with 3 TD runs. Despite the loss, the Boilers have to be feeling good about the way they've played of late. Purdue has won 11 of the last 15 meetings with Minnesota, but the Gophers have won three of the last five, including a 44-28 win in Minnesota in 2012 in the latest meeting. The favorite is 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 meetings. The Gophers haven't been a double-digit favorite against a Big Ten team since 2004, and are just 3-6 ATS in the last nine as a 10+ point favorite overall. Purdue is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games following a double-digit loss at home.

Maryland (-5) vs. Iowa – 12:00 p.m. ET

Maryland had a bye week last week after running into a buzzsaw in its most recent game against OSU. The Buckeyes scored early and often and rode a 31-10 halftime lead into a 52-24 victory. Maryland QB's Brown & Rowe completed just 24-of-40 passes for 244 yards with 1 TD and 4 INT. Coach Edsall stated that there is absolutely no quarterback controversy and that CJ Brown will be the starter when Maryland returns to the field despite being replaced at halftime against OSU. It'd help whoever is under center if the Terps could get some semblance of a rushing attack. They managed just 66 rush yards on 24 carries (2.8 YPC) against the Bucks and now rank 90th nationally in rush YPG. The good news is that they've had a week off to work on that, along with solving their defensive issues (106th against the run, 99th in total defense) before hosting Iowa this weekend. Iowa came off of its own bye week to face Indiana last week, and the Hawkyes that took the field looked completely different than the version we saw over the first five weeks of the season. They were exciting and explosive on offense while scoring 45 points - 21 more than they had scored against an FBS program this season - in the 16-point victory over the Hoosiers. QB Jake Rudock looked much improved, throwing for 210 yards and two scores on 19-of-27 passing as Iowa jumped to a 21-0 lead. Playing against Indiana seemed to solve a lot of Iowa's offensive woes, as the rushing attack notched 207 yards - the first time Iowa has exceeded 175 rush yards in a game this season. It was a bit concerning that a normally stout Iowa run-defense allowed Indiana to rush for 316 yards on 8.1 YPC with three long TD runs of 83, 69, and 45 by IU's Tevin Coleman. We'll see if Iowa can carry its strong offensive performance into the next game on the road against Maryland. Iowa is 8-0 ATS in its last eight roadies, four of which came as an underdog. The Terps are just 1-5 ATS in the last six home games and 0-7 ATS following a bye week.

Wisconsin - Bye Week

The winning margin of 10 points over Illinois is a bit misleading as the Illini scored a couple of garbage touchdowns and the Badgers had a +210 yard advantage; but the Badgers had to overcome another slow start and struggled yet again to get a passing attack going. It didn't matter on Saturday as the Badgers romped for 401 rush yards on 8.5 YPC, but the Badgers will need to develop an aerial attack if they want a shot at a B1G title. Melvin Gordon had another huge day (175 rush yds, 4 TD) to continue his torried pace of 868 rush yds and 12 TD over the past four games. Defensively they allowed Illini backup QB O'Toole to see a few too many passing lanes (12-of-19 for 96 yards and 2 scores) and the rush defense allowed Illinois to rush for its 2nd highest total on the ground this season. Still, this pass defense ranks as the top unit in the B1G, allowing just 50.3% completions for 169.2 YPG with just 5 pass TD. That pass defense will get tested in upcoming games against Maryland and Rutgers.

Penn State - Bye Week

The Nittany Lions lost a second consecutive game last week against Michigan and are now reeling after a strong 4-0 start. Christian Hackenberg may have all the talent in the world, but he appears to be playing without confidence; mainly because the offensive line stinks and he has so few playmakers around him. Hackenberg has just 1 TD pass in the last four games and the Nittany Lions have limped to just 104 rush yards on 60 carries (1.7 YPC) in PSU's two consecutive losses. The defense continues to be outstanding as this unit held Michigan to just 256 total yards - including 64 rush yards on 2.1 YPC - and 12 first downs. But their defensive prowess will go unnoticed if the offense continues to underperform. Next up the Nittany Lions will host Ohio State as PSU looks to avenge last year's 49-point loss to the Buckeyes.

Michigan - Bye Week

It wasn't a convincing win over Penn State, but it was a win nonetheless, and the Wolverines will take anything they can get nowadays. The Wolves used a solid defensive performance, holding Penn State to 214 yards, 16 first downs, and just 13 points in the five-point victory. The defense will have to continue to play at an elite level because it appears this offense isn't making any strides. The Wolves managed just 256 total yards and 12 first downs. They rushed for just 64 yards on 21 carries (2.1 YPC) while QB Gardner was efficient but inexplosive (16-of-24 for 192 yards with 1 TD & 1 INT). It was a solid win at home that saved Brady Hoke's job for at least one more week, and perhaps this showing can relieve some pressure on Michigan before it travels to East Lansing for the all-important battle of Michigan with the Spartans.

Illinois - Bye Week

Credit the Illini for playing the Badgers tougher than anyone really expected, especially considering they were playing their first game without star QB Wes Lunt. Illinois jumped out to a 14-7 - before the Badgers scored the next 31 points - and then cut a 24-point deficit to just 10 in the 4th quarter. Backup QB Riley O'Toole made a few big plays (2 TD passes) and the rushing attack notched 153 yards against the Badgers. Still, despite all the "good" things that the Illini did, they were still outgained by 210 yards and allowed UW RB's Gordon & Clement to rush for 339 yards and 5 TD. This is a porous defense, and now without Lunt, the offense is really going to struggle. Their remaining schedule is against five teams with a combined record of 22-8 and they'll likely be heavy underdogs in each of those contests.

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF Consensus Picks

October 16, 2014 »


Sides (ATS)

Time Away Line Picks Pct Home Line Picks Pct Detail Odds

10:00 PM Utah -2.5 910 50.03% Oregon State +2.5 909 49.97% View View

7:30 PM Virginia Tech -1 1154 60.51% Pittsburgh +1 753 39.49% View View



Totals (Over/Under)

Time Away Total Over Pct Home Total Under Pct Detail Odds

7:30 PM Virginia Tech 45 491 52.07% Pittsburgh 45 452 47.93% View View

10:00 PM Utah 53 615 67.07% Oregon State 53 302 32.93% View View

 

[CNOTES]

COLLEGE FOOTBALL RECORD:

16- 10 - 1........................*****

11 - 10..............................DOUBLE PLAY

9- 12...............................TRIPLE PLAY

1 - 9........................LIGHTS OUT :-((


Rated and Overall Opinons

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

10/11/14 16-*30-*1 34.78% -*8500 Detail

10/10/14 1-*5-*0 16.67% -*2250 Detail

10/09/14 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail

10/04/14 27-*22-*2 55.10% +*1400 Detail

10/03/14 3-*3-*0 50.00% -*150 Detail

10/02/14 4-*2-*0 66.67% +*900 Detail

Totals 53-*62-*3 46.09% -*7600 :-****


Thursday, October 16

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Virginia Tech - 7:30 PM ET Pittsburgh +1 500 DOUBLE PLAY

Pittsburgh - Over 45 500 *****

Utah - 10:00 PM ET Utah -2.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY

Oregon State - Over 53 500 DOUBLE PLAY

 

[CNOTES]

COLLEGE FOOTBALL RECORD:

16- 11 - 1........................*****

12 - 10..............................DOUBLE PLAY

10- 13...............................TRIPLE PLAY

1 - 9........................LIGHTS OUT :-((


Rated and Overall Opinons

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

10/16/14 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail

10/14/14 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail

10/11/14 16-*30-*1 34.78% -*8500 Detail

10/10/14 1-*5-*0 16.67% -*2250 Detail

10/09/14 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail

10/04/14 27-*22-*2 55.10% +*1400 Detail

10/03/14 3-*3-*0 50.00% -*150 Detail

10/02/14 4-*2-*0 66.67% +*900 Detail

Totals 55-*66-*3 45.45% -*8800

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 8

Friday's games
Boise State won 11 of last 13 games with Fresno State, but lost 41-40 at Fresno LY, but that was with current NFL starter Carr at QB for Fresno. Bulldogs lost last six visits here (0-6 vs spread) in series where favorites are 11-1 vs spread in series. Boise is 2-0 as home favorite this year, with home wins by 13-25 points, after being just 5-13 as home favorite in last three years of Petersen era. Fresno is playing on 4th consecutive Friday; this is their 5th road game already- they're 2-3 as road underdogs under DeRuyter and got upset on road last week by a bad UNLV team.

Houston lost two of three lined home games this year; they're 21-11 last 32 games as home favorite, 1-2 this year. Cougars (-3) won 22-13 LY at Temple, outgaining Owls 524-300. Three of last four Houston games were decided by 8 or less points. Temple is 4-1, winning road games at stiffs Vandy/UConn; their only loss was at home to run-happy Navy. Owls are 13-8-1 in last 22 games as a home underdog. Home teams have covered only three of nine games in the AAC this season.

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF

Friday, October 17

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Game of the Day: Temple at Houston
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Temple Owls at Houston Cougars (-7.5, 51)

The American Athletic Conference's top two defenses will meet in a primetime clash Friday when Temple visits Houston. The host Cougars lead the AAC in total defense while the Owls lead the league - and are ranked fourth nationally - in scoring defense. The Owls have also turned 17 turnovers into a national-best 79 points.

Houston, which has 19 takeaways this season and at least one in 29 straight games, must overcome significant changes on both sides of the ball. Receiver-turned-quarterback Greg Ward Jr. will make his second start at the position after replacing John O'Korn, and the Cougars lost second-leading receiver Daniel Spencer to a knee injury last week in practice. The Houston defense, which is allowing 322.7 yards and 19.2 points, lost junior cornerback Lee Hightower (leg) and senior linebacker Derrick Mathews (knee) to season-ending injuries in last week's win at Memphis.

TV: 9 p.m. ET, ESPNU.

LINE: The Cougars opened as 6-point home favorites and have been bet up to -7.5. The total opened at 48.5 and has been bet up all the way to 51.

INJURY REPORT: Houston - DB Lee Hightower (out for season, leg), LB Derrick Mathews (out for season, knee). Temple - N/A.

WEATHER REPORT: It should be a great night for football at TDECU Stadium with temperatures in the mid 70s and a six mile per hour wind blowing from the south.

TRENDS:

* Temple is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games.
* Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last five home games.
* Over is 5-0 in Temple's last five games on fieldturf.
* Under is 4-0 in Houston's last four home games.

CONSENSUS: Almost 59 percent of wagers are backing the road underdogs Temple at +7.5-points.

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF

Friday, October 17


Fresno State providing no value against Boise State

Fresno State will travel to Albertsons Stadium with an abysmal track record against Boise State. The Bulldogs are 1-12 against the spread in the last 13 meetings between the teams.

The lone cover by the Bulldogs came in 2005 when the Bulldogs topped the Broncos 27-7, as 9-point home favorites.

Fresno State is currently 17-point home faves against Boise State.


Temple has been money on the road

There may not be a better under the rader road team in college football for bettors than Temple. In the last six road games, the Owls are a perfect 6-0 against the spread.

Though Temple was spotted points in five of those six games, they won outright in their last three outscoring opponents 114-38.

The Owls are 7.5-point road dogs against Houston.

 

[CNOTES]

SBPI Rankings - Week 8

October 16, 2014


In last week’s Contenders vs. Pretenders piece on VegasInsider.com, I introduced users to my College Football Performance Ratings.

I had Auburn ranked as the top team an even though they lost at Mississippi State last Saturday, my numbers still believe the Tigers are better than the Bulldogs and on a neutral field, they would likely be favored.

Below are my Top 25 rankings through eight weeks of action. I also include the AP Poll, USA Today Poll, ESPN’s FPI & Sagarin’s rankings which can all be used as a solid comparison tool.

Top 25 Ratings

Category Raw Unit Ratings Rankings Strength of Schedule

Team Off Def Total AP COA FPI SAG Adjusted Rating Rank

Auburn 2 13 3 6 8 1 1 312.6 1

Alabama 5 11 4 7 7 5 6 296.3 2

Baylor 4 2 1 4 4 8 5 270.9 3

Georgia 15 14 6 10 10 2 7 268.5 4

Mississippi 29 8 7 3 3 3 2 266.6 5

Michigan State 1 5 2 8 6 21 14 264.8 6

Mississippi State 8 43 12 1 1 6 3 256.2 7

Clemson 43 5 10 24 22 13 18 255.1 8

USC 12 48 20 22 25 14 21 248.8 9

LSU 39 26 18 - - 15 12 247.1 10

East Carolina 19 48 22 18 16 - 46 243.6 11

TCU 32 35 21 12 12 16 8 238.5 12

Ohio State 6 34 8 13 13 11 15 238.5 13

Notre Dame 19 25 10 5 5 18 13 235.7 14

Stanford 65 3 13 23 20 17 16 232.4 15

Nebraska 26 17 9 19 19 - 24 232.2 16

Louisville 83 1 13 - - - 27 226 17

West Virginia 30 54 26 - - - 31 225.7 18

Oklahoma 48 43 35 11 11 7 4 223.9 19

Arkansas 10 76 38 - - 19 25 223.5 20

Texas A&M 26 63 34 21 21 10 9 223.4 21

Pittsburgh 49 11 13 - - - 54 223.1 22

Virginia 70 8 24 - - - 52 221.8 23

Iowa 53 5 16 - - - 40 219.3 24

Miami, Fl. 58 31 31 - - - 47 218 25



Conference Breakdown

AAC: 1

ACC: 5

Big 10: 4

Big 12: 4

CUSA: 0

IND: 1

MAC: 0

MWC: 0

Pac-12: 2

SEC: 8

SUN: 0

Strength of each conference taking average ranking of ALL TEAMS:

SEC: 27.57

Big 12: 43.80

Pac-12: 44.92

ACC: 47.93

Big 10: 50.00

IND: 66.75

MWC: 77.75

CUSA:83.54

AAC: 87.00

MAC: 94.85

SUN: 95.09

Below are the biggest MOVERS in overall ranking since last week:

Ratings Comparison

Team Week 7 Week 8 Change

Arkansas State 75 42 33

Georgia Southern 39 67 (28)

Indiana 49 74 (25)

Akron 59 84 (25)

East Carolina 34 11 23

Missouri 21 44 (23)

Boston College 70 51 19

Northern Illinois 45 64 (19)

Syracuse 68 87 (19)

Washington 83 65 18

Texas 53 36 17

Florida State 56 39 17

Georgia 19 4 15

Central Michigan 73 58 15

Duke 77 62 15


Next up let’s look at the Top 10 non-Power 5 conference teams:

Top 10 Non-Power 5 Ratings

Category Raw Unit Ratings Rankings Strength of Schedule

Team Off Def Total AP COA FPI SAG Adjusted Rating Rank

East Carolina 19 48 22 18 16 - 46 243.6 11

Memphis 52 27 26 - - - 57 214.3 27

Utah State 74 17 31 - - - 55 203.6 32

Boise State 47 38 30 - - - 49 202.4 35

Marshall 3 27 5 25 24 24 35 199.5 37

Arkansas State 64 37 40 - - - 59 185.5 42

Air Force 24 57 25 - - - 113 184.7 43

BYU 72 55 58 - - - 38 182.4 47

Louisiana Tech 74 58 66 - - - 67 177.6 52

Rice 21 93 62 - - - 86 176.3 55


Lastly here are the Bottom 10 teams according to College Football SBPI:


Botton 10 Ratings

Category Raw Unit Ratings Rankings Strength of Schedule

Team Off Def Total AP COA FPI SAG Adjusted Rating Rank

Wyoming 114 112 120 - - - 117 88.3 119

South Florida 123 80 120 - - - 120 87.3 120

Idaho 105 119 119 - - - 183 82.5 121

Georgia State 93 127 120 - - - 196 78.6 122

Southern Mississippi 117 122 123 - - - 148 73.7 123

Vanderbilt 126 100 125 - - - 123 73.3 124

UNLV 120 120 124 - - - 173 68.7 125

Eastern Michigan 122 125 126 - - - 198 57.3 126

Kent State 124 123 127 - - - 189 52.7 127

SMU 125 128 128 - - - 160 46.1 128

 

[CNOTES]

Fresno State at Boise State

October 16, 2014


With identical 2-1 records in Mountain West play, albeit in opposite divisions, Boise State and Fresno State will hit the smurf turf Friday night in Idaho for a critical conference clash.

As of Thursday afternoon, most betting shops had Boise State (4-2 straight up, 4-2 against the spread) installed as a 17-point favorite with a total of 62.5 or 63. The total increased from 61 between Wednesday and Thursday.

Boise State returns home for the first time in nearly a month (September 20 to be exact). In a pair of home games, the Broncos beat Louisiana-Lafayette, 34-9 as 17.5-point favorites and also knocked off Colorado State, 37-24 as 7.5-point 'chalk.'

BSU opened the season with a 35-13 loss to Ole Miss at the Georgia Dome. However, we should note that the Broncos were trailing by just one point (7-6) with less than 13 minutes remaining. They failed to cover the number as 9.5-point underdogs.

From there, Bryan Harsin's team ripped off three consecutive wins both SU and ATS before losing 28-14 at Air Force. On October 4, BSU bounced back by winning a 51-46 decision at Nevada as a three-point road favorite.

BSU's offensive attack is built around junior RB Jay Ajayi, who has rushed for 709 yards and eight touchdowns while averaging 5.0 yards per carry. In the win over the Wolf Pack, Ajayi rushed for 152 yards and three TDs on 27 carries. Grant Hedrick threw for 346 yards and a pair of TD passes and ran for another score.

Hedrick has had an up-and-down season. On the bright side, he is completing 72.1 percent of his passes and in his team's four wins, the senior signal caller has a 6/2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. However, Hedrick threw four interceptions in each of BSU's two losses to bring his season TD-INT ratio to an abysmal 7/10.

Boise State will be without senior wide receiver Matt Miller for the rest of the season due to an ankle injury sustained on Sept. 27 in a loss at Air Force. Miller finishes his collegiate career as the Broncos' all-time leader in receptions (244), second all-time leader in receiving yards (3,049) and third all-time in TD catches (29).

Fresno State (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS) lost three in a row to start the season, but it took a three-game winning streak both SU and ATS into Sam Boyd Stadium in Las Vegas last Friday night. However, the Rebels put an end to that win streak by capturing a 30-27 overtime win as 9.5-point home underdogs.

The Bulldogs lost the turnover battle 4-1 at UNLV, wasting a pair of big-time performances. RB Marteze Waller (661 rushing yards for the season) ran 17 times for 137 yards and one TD against the Rebels. WR Josh Harper had 12 receptions for 187 yards and one TD.

Fresno State junior QB Brian Burrell had three TD passes against UNLV, but he was also picked off twice. For the season, Burrell has an 11/6 TD-INT ratio and a pair of rushing scores. The 'over' is 4-3 overall for Fresno State, but the 'under' has cashed in three straight games for the Bulldogs. Their road road assignments have been a wash in terms of totals (2-2).

Totals have been a wash overall (3-3) and at home (1-1) for Boise State We should note that this is the highest total the Broncos have seen this year.

Boise State has taken the cash in eight consecutive head-to-head meetings with Fresno State, going 12-1 ATS in the last 13 encounters. BSU saw its seven-game winning streak over the Bulldogs snapped in a 41-40 loss last year, but the Broncos still managed to cover the number as 3.5-point road underdogs.

Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**B.E.'s Bonus Nuggets**

-- Who will start at QB for Indiana vs. Michigan State? It sounds like true freshman Zander Diamont, who was going to be redshirted and has yet to take a collegiate snap. Chris Covington got all the playing time last week when Nate Sudfeld went down with a season-ending shoulder injury. Covington, another true freshman who was playing linebacker in early August, apparently won't "because his Mama said so," according to a Wednesday report from the Indianapolis Star. -- Arizona State and Florida will both use two-QB systems this week. Jeff Driskel will start for the Gators, but they will also use the hero from a comeback win at Tennessee two weeks ago, true freshman Treon Harris from out of Miami. Harris didn't dress out in a 30-27 loss to LSU because had be suspended all week (but was reinstated to the team on Friday).

-- Arizona State QB Taylor Kelly is ready to return in Saturday's home game against Stanford. However, Todd Graham is going to bring him back slowly and Mike Bercovici will most likely make his third straight start.

-- Missouri owns a 23-9 spread record on the road since 2007.

-- As a home favorite during Will Muschamp's tenure, Florida is 7-12 ATS

 

[CNOTES]

Friday, October 17

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Fresno State - 8:00 PM ET Boise State -17.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY

Boise State - Under 61.5 500 *****


Temple - 9:00 PM ET Temple +9.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY

Houston - Under 52.5 500 *****