December Ups and Downs
December 14, 2015
NFL parity is alive and well in 2015! The Jets had a surprising 4-1 SU/ATS start under their new coach....then came back to earth with a losing streak along with a 0-3-1 ATS run. Andy Reid's Chiefs were at the morgue after a 1-5 SU/ATS start, then rose from the dead on a 7-0 SU/6-1 ATS run to get back in it. The Packers looked like the team to beat in the NFC winning their first six games....then looked like Jacksonville during an ugly 0-3 SU/ATS slide.
And speaking of Jacksonville, the laughable Jaguars started 1-5...then beat the Titans in a Thursday night game to pull within a game of first place! Along the way they covered 4 in a row, off a 51-16 beatdown of Indy to pull within a game of first place.
Every team has flaws that can be exploited. The Patriots have had a great season, but injuries have slowed down their unstoppable offense. The Dolphins have been all over the map depending on which head coach was running the show. Seattle went from two-time NFC champs to one struggling behind a terrible offensive line this season. The Atlanta Falcons started 5-0 for their new coach, but since have stumbled badly on both sides of the ball.
The season is littered with flops. The Lions, Dolphins, Chargers, Colts and Saints were expected to be better. The Rams have had high hopes the last three years with a slew of draft picks, but have been maddeningly inconsistent because of quarterback play and an ultra-conservative offense. Note to Jeff Fisher: Have you heard of the forward pass? It is a part of the game, you know.
The fact is it's always like this, which is why we love the game. A year ago the Chiefs destroyed the Patriots on national TV then later beat Seattle, the two teams that ended up in the Super Bowl. The Chiefs, meanwhile, missed the playoffs despite beating the best of each conference.
Last season how many teams with losing records can say they beat the Broncos, 49ers and then-defending champion Seahawks? Only the Rams could, if you can believe that. Of course, they have trouble with the bad teams, for some reason. "Hey Jeff Fisher, ever hear of"...oh, I covered that.
Oddsmakers make adjustments on teams all during the season, such as six years ago when the Saints and Colts started red hot. After starting 6-0 SU/ATS, the Saints went 2-8 ATS to end the regular season, often as a double digit favorite. That's what can happen to public teams, either popular teams or ones with a flashy offense like the 2013 Broncos, 2009 Saints and 2007 Patriots.
Normally we are at the time of the pro football campaign where some teams have mentally and physically packed in the season. It's been a lost season or one with higher expectations and players, especially ones on poorly coached teams, can just go through the motions. That can show up on the scoreboard and at the wagering window.
The 49ers and Ravens are dealing with lost seasons, the latter with much higher expectations. Two years ago, Houston lost 10 in a row after a 2-0 start and then fired their coach. The Redskins went from a division title in 2012 to a train wreck the last three seasons. Dejected teams can often be money-burners, too. Do you think it’s fun in 2015 to play for the Browns, Jags, Ravens, Lions, 49ers and Saints down the stretch of this lost campaign?
Those teams need to be watched closely as on the bubble for packing it in, along with the Titans, who are already on their second head coach. Pro players have pride and know the score. Taking out their frustrations on a powerhouse team is not uncommon. The good teams aren't that much better from year to year than bad ones. Parity and the salary cap have leveled the playing field and schedules are longer, all of which makes it that much harder to dominate.
The 1962 Green Bay Packers enjoyed a 10-0 start on the way to a 13-1 season, ending in a 16-7 win in the championship game over the Giants as one of Vince Lombardi's best teams. They came close to running the table, except for a surprising Thanksgiving Day loss to Detroit, 26-14 (trailing 26-0 to the fired up Lions). Even NFL David's can be gunning for Goliath this time of the season -- if they haven't already packed it in.
December 14, 2015
NFL parity is alive and well in 2015! The Jets had a surprising 4-1 SU/ATS start under their new coach....then came back to earth with a losing streak along with a 0-3-1 ATS run. Andy Reid's Chiefs were at the morgue after a 1-5 SU/ATS start, then rose from the dead on a 7-0 SU/6-1 ATS run to get back in it. The Packers looked like the team to beat in the NFC winning their first six games....then looked like Jacksonville during an ugly 0-3 SU/ATS slide.
And speaking of Jacksonville, the laughable Jaguars started 1-5...then beat the Titans in a Thursday night game to pull within a game of first place! Along the way they covered 4 in a row, off a 51-16 beatdown of Indy to pull within a game of first place.
Every team has flaws that can be exploited. The Patriots have had a great season, but injuries have slowed down their unstoppable offense. The Dolphins have been all over the map depending on which head coach was running the show. Seattle went from two-time NFC champs to one struggling behind a terrible offensive line this season. The Atlanta Falcons started 5-0 for their new coach, but since have stumbled badly on both sides of the ball.
The season is littered with flops. The Lions, Dolphins, Chargers, Colts and Saints were expected to be better. The Rams have had high hopes the last three years with a slew of draft picks, but have been maddeningly inconsistent because of quarterback play and an ultra-conservative offense. Note to Jeff Fisher: Have you heard of the forward pass? It is a part of the game, you know.
The fact is it's always like this, which is why we love the game. A year ago the Chiefs destroyed the Patriots on national TV then later beat Seattle, the two teams that ended up in the Super Bowl. The Chiefs, meanwhile, missed the playoffs despite beating the best of each conference.
Last season how many teams with losing records can say they beat the Broncos, 49ers and then-defending champion Seahawks? Only the Rams could, if you can believe that. Of course, they have trouble with the bad teams, for some reason. "Hey Jeff Fisher, ever hear of"...oh, I covered that.
Oddsmakers make adjustments on teams all during the season, such as six years ago when the Saints and Colts started red hot. After starting 6-0 SU/ATS, the Saints went 2-8 ATS to end the regular season, often as a double digit favorite. That's what can happen to public teams, either popular teams or ones with a flashy offense like the 2013 Broncos, 2009 Saints and 2007 Patriots.
Normally we are at the time of the pro football campaign where some teams have mentally and physically packed in the season. It's been a lost season or one with higher expectations and players, especially ones on poorly coached teams, can just go through the motions. That can show up on the scoreboard and at the wagering window.
The 49ers and Ravens are dealing with lost seasons, the latter with much higher expectations. Two years ago, Houston lost 10 in a row after a 2-0 start and then fired their coach. The Redskins went from a division title in 2012 to a train wreck the last three seasons. Dejected teams can often be money-burners, too. Do you think it’s fun in 2015 to play for the Browns, Jags, Ravens, Lions, 49ers and Saints down the stretch of this lost campaign?
Those teams need to be watched closely as on the bubble for packing it in, along with the Titans, who are already on their second head coach. Pro players have pride and know the score. Taking out their frustrations on a powerhouse team is not uncommon. The good teams aren't that much better from year to year than bad ones. Parity and the salary cap have leveled the playing field and schedules are longer, all of which makes it that much harder to dominate.
The 1962 Green Bay Packers enjoyed a 10-0 start on the way to a 13-1 season, ending in a 16-7 win in the championship game over the Giants as one of Vince Lombardi's best teams. They came close to running the table, except for a surprising Thanksgiving Day loss to Detroit, 26-14 (trailing 26-0 to the fired up Lions). Even NFL David's can be gunning for Goliath this time of the season -- if they haven't already packed it in.
MNF - Giants at Dolphins
December 13, 2015
The Giants and Dolphins enter Monday night’s contest at Sun Life Stadium with identical 5-7 records. However, New York has an opportunity to pull into a first-place tie atop the NFC East with Philadelphia and Washington with a victory, while Miami is sitting outside the AFC Wild Card race. The Giants have had plenty of opportunities to run away with the division title, losing five games this season when leading in the fourth quarter.
The most recent meltdown for Tom Coughlin’s squad came in last Sunday’s 23-20 overtime setback to the Jets. The Giants failed to cash as 2 ½-point underdogs, while blowing a 20-10 fourth quarter advantage. Eli Manning hooked up with Odell Beckham, Jr. on a 72-yard touchdown strike late in the second quarter, but the Giants would score only three points in the final 38 minutes of the game. The controversy that arose from this loss was Coughlin going for it on fourth and two at the Jets four-yard line with a 10-point lead instead of taking the three points. Manning was intercepted and the Giants eventually lost their third straight game.
Miami snapped a two-game skid in a 15-13 home triumph over Baltimore last Sunday, but couldn’t cover as 3 ½-point favorites. The Dolphins built a 15-0 cushion in the second quarter thanks to a Devante Parker 38-yard touchdown reception, followed up by a Derrick Shelby interception return for a score in the span of 20 seconds. Dan Campbell’s team didn’t put up a single point in the second half, as the Dolphins managed the win in spite of Ryan Tannehill throwing for only 86 yards. The Dolphins have been outgained from a yardage standpoint for the sixth straight game, while winning only their second home contest in five tries this season.
The Giants have not performed well on Monday night football with Manning at quarterback, losing in five of the last six opportunities since 2011. In this span, New York is 0-4 SU/ATS on the road, including a 27-7 blowout loss at Philadelphia back in Week 6. The Dolphins have failed to cover in three Monday night contests with Tannehill under center since 2012, with the only straight-up victory coming last December against the Jets in a 16-13 win as 6 ½-point favorites.
New York is making its first trip to Sun Life Stadium since 1996, as the last time the Dolphins were listed as the home team in this matchup came in 2007 in London. The Dolphins lost that contest, 13-10 as 10-point underdogs at Wembley Stadium, while losing another three-point decision at Met Life Stadium in 2011 by a 20-17 count as 9 ½-point ‘dogs. New York outgained Miami, 402-246 in that home victory, even though the Giants had to erase a 17-10 fourth quarter deficit by scoring the final 10 points of the game.
VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson says New York has taken advantage of turnovers this season, “The Giants have been fortunate with 23 takeaways, tied for the second most in the league sitting with a +9 overall turnover margin, which is third best in the NFL. Those extra chances have helped to make up for a defense that has allowed over 423 yards per game, the second worst average in the NFL with by far the league’s worst passing yards per game allowed average at over 314 yards per game.”
On the flip side, Nelson breaks down the ineptitude of the Dolphins’ offense the last few weeks, “Miami is one of the least productive passing teams in the NFL as well as one of the worst rushing teams with the Dolphins the fourth least productive offensive team in the NFL and the sixth-worst scoring team. After making a coaching change with a 1-3 start, the Dolphins are actually 4-4 since but over the last six games, Miami has scored just 15.5 points per game.”
Underdogs continue to rule Monday night football this season, improving to 11-2-1 ATS after Dallas knocked off Washington last Monday. Four of the last five teams listed in the underdog role have won outright with New England being only the favorite in this span to pick up a victory back in Week 11. The ‘under’ has connected 11 of 14 times in Monday action as the winning team has scored 22 points or less in four of the previous five weeks.
There aren’t many total trends that are favorable each way in this matchup. The Giants are 3-3 to the ‘over’ away from Met Life Stadium, but have cashed the ‘under’ in each of their last two games. Miami has finished ‘under’ the total in four of the past six contests overall, while not scoring more than 15 points in each of its last two home games.
Miami opened up as a one-point favorite, but the line has swung towards New York as the Giants are currently two-point chalk at most books. The total sits between 46 ½ and 47 across the board as weather should be no factor with temperatures expected in the upper 70’s. Kickoff is set for 8:30 PM EST from Sun Life Stadium and the game can be seen on ESPN.
December 13, 2015
The Giants and Dolphins enter Monday night’s contest at Sun Life Stadium with identical 5-7 records. However, New York has an opportunity to pull into a first-place tie atop the NFC East with Philadelphia and Washington with a victory, while Miami is sitting outside the AFC Wild Card race. The Giants have had plenty of opportunities to run away with the division title, losing five games this season when leading in the fourth quarter.
The most recent meltdown for Tom Coughlin’s squad came in last Sunday’s 23-20 overtime setback to the Jets. The Giants failed to cash as 2 ½-point underdogs, while blowing a 20-10 fourth quarter advantage. Eli Manning hooked up with Odell Beckham, Jr. on a 72-yard touchdown strike late in the second quarter, but the Giants would score only three points in the final 38 minutes of the game. The controversy that arose from this loss was Coughlin going for it on fourth and two at the Jets four-yard line with a 10-point lead instead of taking the three points. Manning was intercepted and the Giants eventually lost their third straight game.
Miami snapped a two-game skid in a 15-13 home triumph over Baltimore last Sunday, but couldn’t cover as 3 ½-point favorites. The Dolphins built a 15-0 cushion in the second quarter thanks to a Devante Parker 38-yard touchdown reception, followed up by a Derrick Shelby interception return for a score in the span of 20 seconds. Dan Campbell’s team didn’t put up a single point in the second half, as the Dolphins managed the win in spite of Ryan Tannehill throwing for only 86 yards. The Dolphins have been outgained from a yardage standpoint for the sixth straight game, while winning only their second home contest in five tries this season.
The Giants have not performed well on Monday night football with Manning at quarterback, losing in five of the last six opportunities since 2011. In this span, New York is 0-4 SU/ATS on the road, including a 27-7 blowout loss at Philadelphia back in Week 6. The Dolphins have failed to cover in three Monday night contests with Tannehill under center since 2012, with the only straight-up victory coming last December against the Jets in a 16-13 win as 6 ½-point favorites.
New York is making its first trip to Sun Life Stadium since 1996, as the last time the Dolphins were listed as the home team in this matchup came in 2007 in London. The Dolphins lost that contest, 13-10 as 10-point underdogs at Wembley Stadium, while losing another three-point decision at Met Life Stadium in 2011 by a 20-17 count as 9 ½-point ‘dogs. New York outgained Miami, 402-246 in that home victory, even though the Giants had to erase a 17-10 fourth quarter deficit by scoring the final 10 points of the game.
VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson says New York has taken advantage of turnovers this season, “The Giants have been fortunate with 23 takeaways, tied for the second most in the league sitting with a +9 overall turnover margin, which is third best in the NFL. Those extra chances have helped to make up for a defense that has allowed over 423 yards per game, the second worst average in the NFL with by far the league’s worst passing yards per game allowed average at over 314 yards per game.”
On the flip side, Nelson breaks down the ineptitude of the Dolphins’ offense the last few weeks, “Miami is one of the least productive passing teams in the NFL as well as one of the worst rushing teams with the Dolphins the fourth least productive offensive team in the NFL and the sixth-worst scoring team. After making a coaching change with a 1-3 start, the Dolphins are actually 4-4 since but over the last six games, Miami has scored just 15.5 points per game.”
Underdogs continue to rule Monday night football this season, improving to 11-2-1 ATS after Dallas knocked off Washington last Monday. Four of the last five teams listed in the underdog role have won outright with New England being only the favorite in this span to pick up a victory back in Week 11. The ‘under’ has connected 11 of 14 times in Monday action as the winning team has scored 22 points or less in four of the previous five weeks.
There aren’t many total trends that are favorable each way in this matchup. The Giants are 3-3 to the ‘over’ away from Met Life Stadium, but have cashed the ‘under’ in each of their last two games. Miami has finished ‘under’ the total in four of the past six contests overall, while not scoring more than 15 points in each of its last two home games.
Miami opened up as a one-point favorite, but the line has swung towards New York as the Giants are currently two-point chalk at most books. The total sits between 46 ½ and 47 across the board as weather should be no factor with temperatures expected in the upper 70’s. Kickoff is set for 8:30 PM EST from Sun Life Stadium and the game can be seen on ESPN.
Preview: Giants (5-7) at Dolphins (5-7)
Date: December 14, 2015 8:30 PM EDT
The only future Tom Coughlin is concerned with involves the Miami Dolphins on Monday night. The result, however, could play a part in his future as the coach of the New York Giants.
After another questionable coaching decision played a part in yet another tough-to-swallow loss, the Giants attempt to snap a three-game skid and at least maintain a share of first place against the Dolphins.
Coughlin has led New York (5-7) to two Super Bowl titles, but his team has missed the playoffs for three straight years. The Giants' only avenue to end that skid is winning the lowly NFC East, where they're tied for first with Philadelphia and Washington.
Controversial play-calling for New York has contributed to the logjam with five of its losses coming on fourth-quarter collapses in the final two minutes. The Giants have been outscored by 12 points in those games, including last week's 23-20 overtime loss to the New York Jets.
They blew a 10-point, fourth-quarter lead to their Big Apple rival after Coughlin opted to go for it on fourth-and-2 at the Jets 4 with 8:50 left in regulation instead of kicking a field goal. Eli Manning tossed an interception.
The defeat - which also included Josh Brown missing a 48-yard field goal in overtime - only increased the cries for Coughlin's ouster.
"I don't pay any attention," Coughlin said. "I try to stay focused for the benefit of my team, my coaches and everybody else. You can all disagree. We are trying to win games the best way we can.
"To be honest with you, nobody knows my team better than I know my team. When you sit in judgment of what goes on, it's all been thought out, whether you like it or not and whether it's right or wrong."
The Giants have been outscored by 10 points during their three-game losing streak.
"Coach put us in a position, he trusts us to go make a play, and we've got to do it," Manning said. "We've got to play better at some critical moments in the game. We do some good things, we get close, we do a lot of good things, and it's just kind of that final step, those last few yards, and the difference between winning games and losing games. We're just not making that crucial play to get us the win."
Manning has four interceptions compared to three touchdowns over the last two games, completing 51.8 percent of his passes with a 67.7 passer rating.
The onus is on Manning to get the offense going since the running game ranks 29th in the league with 88.1 yards per game - 62.3 over the last three. The running backs have only managed three touchdowns, and they'll need two over the final four weeks to avoid matching the franchise's 16-game season low in 1996.
Miami's run defense, however, ranks 30th at an average of 134.8 yards against, a big reason it's staring at a franchise-record seventh straight season without a trip to the playoffs.
The Dolphins held Baltimore to 94 yards on 26 carries last Sunday, though, in a 15-13 win over Baltimore. Miami's offense managed just eight first downs while totaling 219 yards.
The Dolphins got 107 of their 137 rushing yards on 20 carries by Lamar Miller in their first game with quarterbacks coach Zac Taylor calling the plays. He replaced offensive coordinator Bill Lazor, who was fired earlier in the week.
"I'm a big believer that you do need more balance," coach Dan Campbell said. "We did what we needed to do to win that game. We ran it well, and the defense played really good football. It's a good formula."
The formula could change with the Giants ranking last in the NFL in pass defense, giving up 314.5 yards per game - 355.6 over the last five.
That could be reason enough to get Ryan Tannehill more involved after he completed 9 of 19 passes for 86 yards and a touchdown against the Ravens. That came a week after he threw the ball a career-high 58 times, completing 33 for 351 yards with three TDs and one interception in a 38-20 loss to the Jets.
More passes would surely please Jarvis Landry, who had two catches for five yards last week after collecting 34 for 350 with two touchdowns over the previous four.
Landry will be looking to make a lasting impression on national television as he gets to compete opposite his close friend Odell Beckham Jr. for the first time.
The former LSU teammates are known for acrobatic, one-handed catches, and Beckham has 36 overall for 630 yards and six touchdowns in the last five games.
"This game has been marked on the schedule for a long time," Beckham said. "It finally being here is so surreal."
The Giants have never lost in three visits to Miami.
Date: December 14, 2015 8:30 PM EDT
The only future Tom Coughlin is concerned with involves the Miami Dolphins on Monday night. The result, however, could play a part in his future as the coach of the New York Giants.
After another questionable coaching decision played a part in yet another tough-to-swallow loss, the Giants attempt to snap a three-game skid and at least maintain a share of first place against the Dolphins.
Coughlin has led New York (5-7) to two Super Bowl titles, but his team has missed the playoffs for three straight years. The Giants' only avenue to end that skid is winning the lowly NFC East, where they're tied for first with Philadelphia and Washington.
Controversial play-calling for New York has contributed to the logjam with five of its losses coming on fourth-quarter collapses in the final two minutes. The Giants have been outscored by 12 points in those games, including last week's 23-20 overtime loss to the New York Jets.
They blew a 10-point, fourth-quarter lead to their Big Apple rival after Coughlin opted to go for it on fourth-and-2 at the Jets 4 with 8:50 left in regulation instead of kicking a field goal. Eli Manning tossed an interception.
The defeat - which also included Josh Brown missing a 48-yard field goal in overtime - only increased the cries for Coughlin's ouster.
"I don't pay any attention," Coughlin said. "I try to stay focused for the benefit of my team, my coaches and everybody else. You can all disagree. We are trying to win games the best way we can.
"To be honest with you, nobody knows my team better than I know my team. When you sit in judgment of what goes on, it's all been thought out, whether you like it or not and whether it's right or wrong."
The Giants have been outscored by 10 points during their three-game losing streak.
"Coach put us in a position, he trusts us to go make a play, and we've got to do it," Manning said. "We've got to play better at some critical moments in the game. We do some good things, we get close, we do a lot of good things, and it's just kind of that final step, those last few yards, and the difference between winning games and losing games. We're just not making that crucial play to get us the win."
Manning has four interceptions compared to three touchdowns over the last two games, completing 51.8 percent of his passes with a 67.7 passer rating.
The onus is on Manning to get the offense going since the running game ranks 29th in the league with 88.1 yards per game - 62.3 over the last three. The running backs have only managed three touchdowns, and they'll need two over the final four weeks to avoid matching the franchise's 16-game season low in 1996.
Miami's run defense, however, ranks 30th at an average of 134.8 yards against, a big reason it's staring at a franchise-record seventh straight season without a trip to the playoffs.
The Dolphins held Baltimore to 94 yards on 26 carries last Sunday, though, in a 15-13 win over Baltimore. Miami's offense managed just eight first downs while totaling 219 yards.
The Dolphins got 107 of their 137 rushing yards on 20 carries by Lamar Miller in their first game with quarterbacks coach Zac Taylor calling the plays. He replaced offensive coordinator Bill Lazor, who was fired earlier in the week.
"I'm a big believer that you do need more balance," coach Dan Campbell said. "We did what we needed to do to win that game. We ran it well, and the defense played really good football. It's a good formula."
The formula could change with the Giants ranking last in the NFL in pass defense, giving up 314.5 yards per game - 355.6 over the last five.
That could be reason enough to get Ryan Tannehill more involved after he completed 9 of 19 passes for 86 yards and a touchdown against the Ravens. That came a week after he threw the ball a career-high 58 times, completing 33 for 351 yards with three TDs and one interception in a 38-20 loss to the Jets.
More passes would surely please Jarvis Landry, who had two catches for five yards last week after collecting 34 for 350 with two touchdowns over the previous four.
Landry will be looking to make a lasting impression on national television as he gets to compete opposite his close friend Odell Beckham Jr. for the first time.
The former LSU teammates are known for acrobatic, one-handed catches, and Beckham has 36 overall for 630 yards and six touchdowns in the last five games.
"This game has been marked on the schedule for a long time," Beckham said. "It finally being here is so surreal."
The Giants have never lost in three visits to Miami.
