Public Fades - Week 14
December 10, 2015
The final quarter of the NFL regular season is here as only one team has clinched a playoff berth so far. The Panthers remain unbeaten at 12-0, while three teams currently sit at the top of the AFC tied at 10-2 (New England, Denver, and Cincinnati). Two clubs that got off subpar starts are back on the winning track as both Seattle and Kansas City are public favorites in Week 13.
In last week’s edition of "Public Fades," we made the case for backing the Saints and Eagles. Philadelphia won outright as 9 ½-point underdogs at New England, while New Orleans covered in a 41-38 defeat as six-point home ‘dogs to Carolina. This week, we’ll take a look at supporting two teams that aren’t headed to the postseason.
Chargers at Chiefs (-10, 45) – 1:00 PM EST
The last time these AFC West rivals got together in late November, Kansas City wiped out San Diego, 33-3 as three-point favorites at Qualcomm Stadium. The Chiefs’ defense limited the Chargers to just 201 yards of offense, while Philip Rivers threw for a season-low 178 yards. Andy Reid’s squad is riding a six-game winning streak following a 1-5 start to sit in a prime position for an AFC Wild Card spot.
Kansas City’s defense has stepped up of late, limiting seven of its past eight opponents to 20 points or less. The Chiefs pulled off their third road win in four weeks over a division foe last Sunday by taking care of the Raiders, 34-20 as three-point favorites.
Lightning hasn’t struck for the Chargers this season, who stumble into Arrowhead Stadium with a dreadful 3-9 record. San Diego has failed to score a touchdown in two of the last three weeks in double-digit losses to Denver and Kansas City, while the Bolts’ last two victories have come against Cleveland and Jacksonville since early October. The only thing the Chargers have going for them is three consecutive covers as a road underdog, which includes losses of seven points or less at Green Bay and Baltimore.
So why back the Chargers?
VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson says in spite of the Chargers’ recent struggles, their air attack can give Kansas City problems, “San Diego is still the fourth-most productive passing team in the NFL, while the Chiefs rank 26th in the league in passing yards per game and the pass defense numbers are remarkably similar despite the contrasting results. Kansas City has won and covered in six straight games to move into a playoff position in the AFC, but the prices to back the Chiefs will now climb.”
Even though the Chiefs have been on fire of late, Nelson notes the oddmakers may have over-inflated the line on the Chiefs, “Kansas City was only a three-point favorite in San Diego in Week 11 and only twice since 2003 have the Chiefs been a double-digit favorite. Despite the issues this season the Chargers aren’t likely to mail it in vs. a division rival and San Diego is on a 35-15-3 ATS run as a road underdog since 2004 including covering in each of the last three instances this season.”
NFL expert Vince Akins mentions an interesting stat regarding teams that win without putting up many yards, “Kansas City defeated Oakland on the road last week, 34-20. That margin looks great on the scoreboard, but there is some reason for concern from how that game played out. Kansas City put up 34 points but did so with just 232 yards of total offense. Oakland meanwhile, put up 361 yards of offense. A big win where a team was significantly outgained is cause for concern. Teams that won by more than seven points last game while being outgained by at least 100 yards have covered just 43.6% of the time next game since 1989.”
Seahawks (-9 ½, 42) at Ravens – 1:00 PM EST
Seattle has turned things around since a 2-4 start by winning five of its last six games. The Seahawks are in the mix for a playoff berth in the NFC, looking to make its third consecutive Super Bowl. Pete Carroll’s club won its third straight road game in last Sunday’s 38-7 rout of the Vikings as short favorites, as the Seattle defense limited Minnesota to 125 yards of total offense. However, the Seahawks have struggled in the second contest of consecutive road games since 2013, posting a 2-5 ATS record.
It’s been a forgettable season for John Harbaugh’s Ravens, capped off by the loss of quarterback Joe Flacco three weeks ago to a season-ending knee injury. In spite of Baltimore’s 4-8 record, the Ravens have yet to play a game decided by double-digits. The Ravens have cashed the last two weeks as an underdog with Matt Schaub under center, including last Sunday’s 15-13 defeat at Miami as 3 ½-point ‘dogs.
So why back the Ravens?
Nelson points out that Baltimore’s offense has held its own even without Flacco, “With Schaub at quarterback the past two weeks, the Ravens have had decent production posting an average of 355 yards per game and 19 first downs per game. Javorius Allen has also provided a solid threat in the backfield with 118 rushing yards on 29 carries while also totaling 136 receiving yards on 16 catches. The Seattle defense has also had inconsistent performances this season, allowing 27 or more points in half of the team’s games and a great performance last week in Minnesota it seems unlikely that the team will be as sharp in a second straight road game against a much less threatening opponent.”
December 10, 2015
The final quarter of the NFL regular season is here as only one team has clinched a playoff berth so far. The Panthers remain unbeaten at 12-0, while three teams currently sit at the top of the AFC tied at 10-2 (New England, Denver, and Cincinnati). Two clubs that got off subpar starts are back on the winning track as both Seattle and Kansas City are public favorites in Week 13.
In last week’s edition of "Public Fades," we made the case for backing the Saints and Eagles. Philadelphia won outright as 9 ½-point underdogs at New England, while New Orleans covered in a 41-38 defeat as six-point home ‘dogs to Carolina. This week, we’ll take a look at supporting two teams that aren’t headed to the postseason.
Chargers at Chiefs (-10, 45) – 1:00 PM EST
The last time these AFC West rivals got together in late November, Kansas City wiped out San Diego, 33-3 as three-point favorites at Qualcomm Stadium. The Chiefs’ defense limited the Chargers to just 201 yards of offense, while Philip Rivers threw for a season-low 178 yards. Andy Reid’s squad is riding a six-game winning streak following a 1-5 start to sit in a prime position for an AFC Wild Card spot.
Kansas City’s defense has stepped up of late, limiting seven of its past eight opponents to 20 points or less. The Chiefs pulled off their third road win in four weeks over a division foe last Sunday by taking care of the Raiders, 34-20 as three-point favorites.
Lightning hasn’t struck for the Chargers this season, who stumble into Arrowhead Stadium with a dreadful 3-9 record. San Diego has failed to score a touchdown in two of the last three weeks in double-digit losses to Denver and Kansas City, while the Bolts’ last two victories have come against Cleveland and Jacksonville since early October. The only thing the Chargers have going for them is three consecutive covers as a road underdog, which includes losses of seven points or less at Green Bay and Baltimore.
So why back the Chargers?
VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson says in spite of the Chargers’ recent struggles, their air attack can give Kansas City problems, “San Diego is still the fourth-most productive passing team in the NFL, while the Chiefs rank 26th in the league in passing yards per game and the pass defense numbers are remarkably similar despite the contrasting results. Kansas City has won and covered in six straight games to move into a playoff position in the AFC, but the prices to back the Chiefs will now climb.”
Even though the Chiefs have been on fire of late, Nelson notes the oddmakers may have over-inflated the line on the Chiefs, “Kansas City was only a three-point favorite in San Diego in Week 11 and only twice since 2003 have the Chiefs been a double-digit favorite. Despite the issues this season the Chargers aren’t likely to mail it in vs. a division rival and San Diego is on a 35-15-3 ATS run as a road underdog since 2004 including covering in each of the last three instances this season.”
NFL expert Vince Akins mentions an interesting stat regarding teams that win without putting up many yards, “Kansas City defeated Oakland on the road last week, 34-20. That margin looks great on the scoreboard, but there is some reason for concern from how that game played out. Kansas City put up 34 points but did so with just 232 yards of total offense. Oakland meanwhile, put up 361 yards of offense. A big win where a team was significantly outgained is cause for concern. Teams that won by more than seven points last game while being outgained by at least 100 yards have covered just 43.6% of the time next game since 1989.”
Seahawks (-9 ½, 42) at Ravens – 1:00 PM EST
Seattle has turned things around since a 2-4 start by winning five of its last six games. The Seahawks are in the mix for a playoff berth in the NFC, looking to make its third consecutive Super Bowl. Pete Carroll’s club won its third straight road game in last Sunday’s 38-7 rout of the Vikings as short favorites, as the Seattle defense limited Minnesota to 125 yards of total offense. However, the Seahawks have struggled in the second contest of consecutive road games since 2013, posting a 2-5 ATS record.
It’s been a forgettable season for John Harbaugh’s Ravens, capped off by the loss of quarterback Joe Flacco three weeks ago to a season-ending knee injury. In spite of Baltimore’s 4-8 record, the Ravens have yet to play a game decided by double-digits. The Ravens have cashed the last two weeks as an underdog with Matt Schaub under center, including last Sunday’s 15-13 defeat at Miami as 3 ½-point ‘dogs.
So why back the Ravens?
Nelson points out that Baltimore’s offense has held its own even without Flacco, “With Schaub at quarterback the past two weeks, the Ravens have had decent production posting an average of 355 yards per game and 19 first downs per game. Javorius Allen has also provided a solid threat in the backfield with 118 rushing yards on 29 carries while also totaling 136 receiving yards on 16 catches. The Seattle defense has also had inconsistent performances this season, allowing 27 or more points in half of the team’s games and a great performance last week in Minnesota it seems unlikely that the team will be as sharp in a second straight road game against a much less threatening opponent.”
