Cnotes National Basketball League Apri's Picks/Trends/News Thru the Playoffs !!

[CNOTES]

Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack


-- UNLV hired Marvin Menzies as its new basketball coach, its 4th coach since January 10, when they fired coach/alum Dave Rice.


-- Hawks 102, Celtics 101-- Boston was down 17 at the half, but scored 67 points in second half, still lost.


-- Pacers 100, Raptors 90-- Toronto last playoff series win was in 2001 (0-5 since)


-- Matt Harvey is 0-3, 5.71 this season; should the Mets be concerned?


-- Felix Hernandez has had 34 starts in his career where he didn't allow a run but still didn't win the game.


-- Oakland A's were 256-175 while they had Yoenis Cespedes; they're 95-134 since they traded him away on July 31, 2014.


**********

Armadillo: Sunday's List of 13: More thoughts on the NFL schedule......


13) New England is currently (even) in its season opener at Arizona; Patriots have been favored in their last twelve season openers.


12) If you play fantasy football, Cleveland/Houston will be first teams since 2001 with Week 13 byes, which is often the last week of the fantasy leagues' regular season.


11) Oakland Raiders get their first Sunday night home game in 10 years when Denver comes calling in Week 9.


10) Miami Dolphins requested to be on the road in Weeks 1-2, because their stadium is being refurbished.


9) Five teams opened with consecutive road games LY; of those five, Seattle was only one to make the playoffs.


8) Washington (weeks 12-14), Green Bay (weeks 10-12), are only teams with three-game road trips this season. Teams playing their third week in row on road are generally very poor bets.


7) If you want to draft Aaron Rodgers in fantasy, keep in mind his three playoff games (weeks 14-16) will be two games at Lambeau, one in Chicago, not the best weather scenarios.


6) Tampa Bay's three away games in December: Dallas-New Orleans and San Diego- thats two domes and San Diego, so probably no weather issues.


5) USC requested the Rams not have any primetime home games, because they generally fall on school nights- Seriously, they did- Rams/USC will share the LA Coliseum for the next three years. They must roll up the sidewalks pretty early in Tinseltown, so the kids can do their homework. .


4) Texans/Jets will both play four games on short work weeks this season, most in NFL. Kansas City is the only NFL team with one game on short rest.


3) Oakland Raiders have five 1:00 ET games this year, most in NFL; LA Rams have four, plus a game in England that looks like it is going to start at 6:30am LA time. Terrific.


2) Carolina Panthers have already been bet down from +2.5 to +1 for their season opener in Denver. Line should move again when we finally figure out who the Broncos' QB is going to be.


1) Ridiculous amounts of NFL mock drafts have been done the last few months; when the Rams/Titans swung their big trade the other day, every single one of them went in the ashcan.

 

[CNOTES]

NBA
Dunkel


Sunday, April 17


Memphis @ San Antonio


Game 513-514
April 17, 2016 @ 8:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Memphis
113.137
San Antonio
125.115
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Antonio
by 12
182
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Antonio
by 15 1/2
190
Dunkel Pick:
Memphis
(+15 1/2); Under


Portland @ LA Clippers


Game 515-516
April 17, 2016 @ 10:30 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Portland
120.811
LA Clippers
126.682
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Clippers
by 6
202
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Clippers
by 8
209
Dunkel Pick:
Portland
(+8); Under


Detroit @ Cleveland


Game 509-510
April 17, 2016 @ 3:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Detroit
115.006
Cleveland
127.962
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cleveland
by 13
208
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cleveland
by 10 1/2
200 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Cleveland
(-10 1/2); Over


Charlotte @ Miami


Game 511-512
April 17, 2016 @ 5:30 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Charlotte
117.958
Miami
124.481
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Miami
by 6 1/2
207
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Miami
by 4
200
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(-4); Over







NBA
Long Sheet


Sunday, April 17


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


DETROIT (44 - 38) at CLEVELAND (57 - 25) - 4/17/2016, 3:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) in a road game where where the total is between 200 and 204.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) after a division game this season.
CLEVELAND is 31-41 ATS (-14.1 Units) as a favorite this season.
CLEVELAND is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) vs. division opponents this season.


Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 6-6 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 7-5 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
6 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


CHARLOTTE (48 - 34) at MIAMI (48 - 34) - 4/17/2016, 5:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 22-13 ATS (+7.7 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
MIAMI is 20-11 ATS (+7.9 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
CHARLOTTE is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points over the last 3 seasons.
CHARLOTTE is 37-22 ATS (+12.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 10-6 against the spread versus CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 12-4 straight up against CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
10 of 16 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


MEMPHIS (42 - 40) at SAN ANTONIO (67 - 15) - 4/17/2016, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MEMPHIS is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 949-828 ATS (+38.2 Units) in all games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 43-33 ATS (+6.7 Units) as a favorite this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 484-402 ATS (+41.8 Units) in home games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 74-49 ATS (+20.1 Units) in home games in all playoff games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 169-124 ATS (+32.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 67-53 ATS (+8.7 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 19-6 ATS (+12.4 Units) after allowing 105 points or more this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 13-22 ATS (-11.2 Units) second half of the season this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 12-22 ATS (-12.2 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN ANTONIO is 8-4 against the spread versus MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 10-2 straight up against MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
8 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PORTLAND (44 - 38) at LA CLIPPERS (53 - 29) - 4/17/2016, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CLIPPERS are 242-296 ATS (-83.6 Units) after allowing 105 points or more since 1996.
LA CLIPPERS are 190-250 ATS (-85.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.


Head-to-Head Series History
PORTLAND is 6-5 against the spread versus LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
LA CLIPPERS is 7-4 straight up against PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
6 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------








NBA
Short Sheet


Sunday, April 17


Detroit at Cleveland, 3:05 ET
Detroit: 5-14 ATS in road games after playing a road game
Cleveland: 10-2 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more


Charlotte at Miami, 5:35 ET
Charlotte: 14-4 ATS after scoring 60 points or more in the first half last game
Miami: 25-40 ATS after covering 2 of their last 3 against the spread


Memphis at San Antonio, 8:05 ET
Memphis: 4-8 ATS in the 1st game of a playoff series
San Antonio: 29-17 ATS after 1 or more consecutive unders

Portland at LA Clippers, 10:35 ET
Portland: 23-14 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread
LA Clippers: 72-109 ATS after allowing 60 points or more in the first half last game








NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up


Sunday, April 17


Detroit-Cleveland (0-0)
Pistons won three of last four games with Cleveland, winning last two by 8-2 points, both in Cleveland; four of last five series games went over total. Detroit won three of last four games; they're 3-2 vs spread in last five games as a dog. Cavaliers lost three of last four games; they covered three of last four at home. Five of last seven Cleveland games went over total. Cleveland is 6-0 in first round series with James. Detroit made the playoffs for first time since 2009.


Charlotte-Miami (0-0)
Hornets lost three of last four visits to Miami (over 4-0); they're 4-6 in their last 10 games overall vs Miami. Charlotte won four of its last five games (over 5-0); they're 4-3 SU in last seven road games. Miami won four of its last six games; five of their last seven stayed under. Heat won, covered its last four home games. Miami missed playoffs LY, its first post-Lebron season, after making Finals all four years they had him- last time they won a first round series without James was 2006. Charlotte has not won a playoff series (0-2) since 2002.

Memphis-San Antonio (0-0)
Grizzlies lost nine of last 10 games, covering one of last four road tilts; Memphis lost its last five games with Spurs (1-4 vs spread), going 2-3 vs spread in last five visits to Alamo. San Antonio is just 4-3 in its last seven first round series, after going 8-1 in first round series from '96-'08. Memphis is in playoffs for sixth year in row, having gone 3-2 in the first round last five years. Over is 3-2 in last five series games played here. San Antonio is 2-8 vs spread in its last ten games overall.

Portland-LA Clippers (0-0)
Since 2000, Trailblazers are 1-7 in first round series, beating Houston in six games in 2014; Portland lost six of last eight with Clippers, going 4-1 vs spread (1-4 SU) in last five played here. Clippers are in playoffs for 5th year in row after making it seven times in 41 years before that; LA is 3-1 in first round series last four years, under Rivers/Del Negro. Portland won seven of last nine games overall; four of its last six stayed under the total. Clippers won their last five home games, covering four of them.


Playoff tally: Favorites vs spread: 2-2, Over: 0-4








NBA


Sunday, April 17


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


3:00 PM
DETROIT vs. CLEVELAND
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Detroit's last 8 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Detroit is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Cleveland is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games when playing at home against Detroit
Cleveland is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Detroit


5:30 PM
CHARLOTTE vs. MIAMI
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Charlotte's last 5 games when playing on the road against Miami
Charlotte is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Miami's last 11 games
Miami is 14-1 SU in its last 15 games when playing at home against Charlotte


8:00 PM
MEMPHIS vs. SAN ANTONIO
Memphis is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games
Memphis is 1-13 SU in its last 14 games when playing on the road against San Antonio
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of San Antonio's last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Antonio's last 8 games when playing at home against Memphis


10:30 PM
PORTLAND vs. LA CLIPPERS
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Portland's last 10 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Portland's last 11 games when playing on the road against LA Clippers
LA Clippers are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing Portland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the LA Clippers last 7 games when playing Portland

 

[CNOTES]

NBA


Sunday, April 17


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sunday's NBA playoffs betting preview and odds
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


LeBron James begins his quest to appear in his sixth consecutive NBA Finals Sunday when the Cavs host the Pistons.


Detroit Pistons at Cleveland Cavaliers (-10.5, 200.5)


The Cleveland Cavaliers aim to return to the NBA Finals - and get there with fewer distractions - and they begin that journey with Sunday's home game against the eighth-seeded Detroit Pistons. The top-seeded Cavaliers reached the finals last season's despite LeBron James' lack of confidence in coach David Blatt before losing to the Golden State Warriors.


Blatt was fired midway through this season and there is less tension within the squad with Tyronn Lue serving as head coach. "We trust the system that he's put in, we trust the process that he's put in, and the game plan going into Sunday we trust," James told reporters. "So I think the fact that he's been a part of big playoff games as a player and as a coach benefits our team for sure." Cleveland is supposed to roll through the opening round despite the fact the Pistons won three of the four regular-season meetings and crave an epic series upset. "I don't want to fight Goliath's homeboy or little brother, I want to go and fight Goliath," Detroit point guard Reggie Jackson told reporters. "I think that's how this locker room feels."


TV: 3 p.m. ET, ABC


LINE HISTORY: LeBron and the Cavs opened Game 1 as 10.5-point home favorites and have yet to move off that number. The total has been bet down a point from 201.5 to 200.5. Check out the complete line history here.


ABOUT THE PISTONS (44-38, 42-38-2 ATS, 42-40 O/U): Detroit is part of the postseason for the first time since 2009 and the players want to do more than gain valuable playoff experience. "Guys always come through here and they're like, 'Oh, let's make it competitive.' No, we're trying to win the series," rookie forward Stanley Johnson told reporters. "We think, we know, we can win the series. We know we can beat them in seven games. So that's no shade on LeBron, or the Cavaliers, or Kyrie (Irving), because they have a great team. Fifty-seven wins this year, you know, that's an awesome organization, what they have going." All-Star center Andre Drummond led the NBA with 66 double-doubles and averaged 20.3 points and 13.7 rebounds in three games against Cleveland.


ABOUT THE CAVALIERS (57-25, 37-42-3 ATS, 41-41 O/U): James was superb in the postseason last year with averages of 30.1 points, 11.3 rebounds and 8.5 assists and figures to once again carry the squad. Power forward Kevin Love and Irving were battling injuries last postseason and Cleveland is hoping its "Big Three" can run the course healthy this time around. The Cavaliers are certainly concerned with defending Drummond as they announced that Tristan Thompson has been elevated to starting center over inconsistent Timofey Mozgov.


TRENDS:


* Pistons are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Cleveland.
* Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games playing on three or more days rest.
* Under is 5-0 in Cavaliers last five games playing on three or more days rest.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.






Charlotte Hornets at Miami Heat (-4.5, 200)


The Miami Heat escaped from the tiebreaker scenario in the Eastern Conference at the top of the pack and will have homecourt advantage in the first round of the playoffs. The third-seeded Heat ended up with the Southeast Division title and will host Game 1 on Sunday against the Charlotte Hornets, who finished with an identical record but got the sixth seed based on the tiebreakers.


Miami, Atlanta, Boston and Charlotte all finished with the same record after the Celtics overcame a 24-point halftime deficit to defeat the Heat on the final day of the regular season. Miami is shaking off that loss and is ready to face the playoffs without All-Star Chris Bosh, who has been out since the All-Star break and will miss the postseason due to a medical condition. The Heat added veteran Joe Johnson when it became clear that Bosh would not be coming back anytime soon, and Johnson averaged 13.4 points in 24 games while helping the team go 16-8 in that span. The Hornets surged with an 18-6 mark over the final 24 games to pull into the four-way tie behind Kemba Walker’s average of 21.6 points in that span.


TV: 5:30 p.m. ET, TNT, FSN Sun (Miami)


LINE HISTORY: The Heat opened as 4.5-point home favorites and have yet to move off that number. The total opened at 202.5 and has been bet down a whole 2.5-points to sit at its current number of 200. Check out the complete line history here.


ABOUT THE HORNETS (48-34, 42-39-1 ATS, 40-40-2 O/U): Walker is at his best when Nicolas Batum is alongside in the backcourt, and Batum plans to be ready for Game 1 despite missing Wednesday’s finale with a sprained left ankle. "Unless we get a setback, I think he'll be fine," Hornets coach Steve Clifford told reporters. "We're going to do more contact (Saturday), but we did some defensive drills and stuff (Friday) and he was fine. So I think he'll be good." The 27-year-old Frenchman averaged career highs of 14.9 points and 5.8 assists in his first season with Charlotte and posted 14.8 points, seven rebounds and seven assists in four games against Miami.


ABOUT THE HEAT (48-34, 43-38-1 ATS, 34-47-1 O/U): Miami ended up losing 98-88 at Boston on Wednesday but quickly brushed aside what could have been a demoralizing loss and focused on the positives. The Heat are back in the playoffs after missing out last season and come in with some momentum after a surprising surge without Bosh following the break. “We’ve had a lot of adversity in that locker room, and I really commend those guys for coming together and not making excuses,” Miami coach Erik Spoelstra told reporters. “It looked pretty bleak after the All-Star break. You look at it now and say, ‘Oh, this is what was expected, to go 19-10.’ That’s not what people were thinking. But guys really banded together and got out of their comfort zones and we put together a pretty good run finishing it out.”


TRENDS:


* Underdog is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.
* Heat are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games.
* Over is 5-0 in Hornets last five overall.
* Over is 8-0 in the last eight meetings in Miami.






Memphis Grizzlies at San Antonio Spurs (-15.5, 190)


The host San Antonio Spurs set a franchise record with 67 victories and begin what they hope is a deep postseason run when they open the playoffs against the seventh-seeded Memphis Grizzlies on Sunday. The second-seeded Spurs are expected to cruise past the Grizzlies, who lost 10 of their final 11 regular-season games and also went winless in four games against San Antonio this season.


The Spurs added power forward LaMarcus Aldridge in the offseason to beef up their championship hopes and the All-Star will be playing with a dislocated right pinky finger. Aldridge meshed well with All-Star small forward Kawhi Leonard and became a more potent offensive force over the second half of the season. Memphis has been decimated by injuries - most notably the losses of center Marc Gasol (foot) and point guard Mike Conley (Achilles) - and faces long odds in a seven-game series. "If we do what they say, we've got what - a two percent chance of advancing?" shooting guard Tony Allen said of the forecasts to reporters. "We've just got to go out there and play hard and play for each other. Hopefully, we can beat the odds."


TV: 8 p.m. ET, TNT, FSN Southeast (Memphis), FSN Southwest (San Antonio)

LINE HISTORY: The Spurs opened as large 15.5-point home favorites against the injury riddled Grizzlies and have yet to move off that number. The total also hasn't moved off its opening number of 190. Check out the complete line history here.


ABOUT THE GRIZZLIES (42-40, 42-39-1 ATS, 45-35-2 O/U): Memphis lost its final two games of the regular season by an average of 23.5 points and the players are well aware it will take a supreme effort to win the series. "We know our margin of error is non-existent," Grizzlies small forward Matt Barnes told reporters. "We pretty much have to be perfect every single game but crazier things have happened." Players like Barnes and swingman Lance Stephenson will need to complement power forward Zach Randolph, who returned to the go-to player role after the injuries to Gasol and Conley.


ABOUT THE SPURS (67-15, 44-38 ATS, 35-45-2 O/U): Aldridge averaged 19.9 points in 25 games after the All-Star break and thrived once he figured out how to fit in with a veteran group fully acclimated to the San Antonio system. "I think it took him longer to adjust to us that it did us to get used to him," veteran Tim Duncan told reporters. "He continued to try to defer to us for a long time while we were trying to push him to take over." Leonard emerged as the club's top option even with Aldridge on board and averaged a career-high 21.2 points and scored 20 or more points in 15 of his last 20 games.


TRENDS:


* Grizzlies are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.
* Spurs are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.
* Over is 5-1 in Grizzlies last six road games.
* Under is 5-1 in Spurs last six versus Southwest Division opponents.





Portland Trail Blazers at Los Angeles Clippers (-8, 209)


The Los Angeles Clippers breezed their way to the No. 4 seed in the Western Conference despite operating without All-Star forward Blake Griffin for over three months. Griffin is back in the fold for the playoffs and will try to help the Clippers slip past the fifth-seeded Portland Trail Blazers, who visit for Game 1 on Sunday.


Griffin returned to the lineup on April 3 after missing extended time due to quad, hand and suspension issues and played in five of the final seven games, averaging 10.4 points on 40 percent shooting in 24.6 minutes. “We still have to get Blake even better, but I think he has looked great,” Los Angeles coach Doc Rivers told reporters. “I think his pace is back, his speed, and more important, I think his confidence that he can play is back.” The Clippers could have their hands full against the Trail Blazers, who were not even expected to make the postseason but instead surged all the way to the No. 5 spot and clinched it on the final day of the regular season. “It’s going to be tough,” Portland guard Damian Lillard told reporters of the matchup with Los Angeles. “They’re a really good team. but we know that we have a chance. We have to go out there and be ourselves, lock in and be ready.”


TV: 10:30 p.m. ET, TNT, KGW (Portland), Prime Ticket (Los Angeles)


LINE HISTORY: The Clippers opened as 7.5-point home favorites and have been bet up to -8. The total opened a 207.5 and have since been bet up a point and a half to the current number of 209. Check out the complete line history here.


ABOUT THE TRAIL BLAZERS (44-38, 44-38 ATS, 44-38 O/U): Portland’s low preseason prognostications drove the team throughout the campaign and inspired the players to drive for the highest playoff seed possible. “When everybody came out with the expectations and all their expertise about what we were going to do this season, I feel like that was the biggest thing that, not only just me, but everybody remembered," guard Allen Crabbe told reporters. "One person picked us as what, 15 out of 15 in the West? The list goes on, man. Everybody felt disrespected, and that’s not what our season is gonna be. It was everybody’s goal since training camp that we were gonna play hard." The Trail Blazers were 15-24 after a loss on Jan. 8 but went 29-14 the rest of the way.


ABOUT THE CLIPPERS (53-29, 40-39-3 ATS, 34-48 O/U): The big challenge might be avoiding looking ahead to a potential second-round meeting with Golden State, and Los Angeles is comfortable being overlooked in the West behind historically great teams like the Warriors and San Antonio Spurs. “I don’t think anybody really gives us any kind of chance of winning (it all),” Griffin told reporters. “We’re not favored by any means, so that (underdog mentality) should be our mindset.” Los Angeles is hoping guard J.J. Redick, who suffered a bruised heel Tuesday against the Grizzlies and sat out practice on Friday, is ready to go on Sunday.

TRENDS:


* Trail Blazers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Clippers are 4-0 ATS in their last four versus Northwest Division opponents.
* Over is 8-2 in Trail Blazers last 10 road games.
* Under is 4-1 in Clippers last five games following a ATS loss.

 

[CNOTES]

Sunday's Early Tips


April 16, 2016


Detroit at Cleveland (ABC, 3:05 p.m. ET)


The Cavaliers have been installed as the prohibitive favorites to win the Eastern Conference and not many pundits expect the Pistons to give them much of a fight in the first round either. Cleveland is listed as high as a minus-2500 favorite (Bet $100 to win $4) while Detroit is an 11/1 underdog to capture the series.


Cleveland opened as a 10-point home favorite in Game 1 and that number has jumped to 10 ½ at most betting shops as of Saturday evening. The opening total of 201 has been holding steady.


2015-16 Regular Season (Pistons 3-1)


Nov. 17 Cavaliers at Pistons (+4.5) 104-99 Over (195.5)
Jan. 29 Cavaliers (-4) at Pistons 114-106 Over (207.5)
Feb. 22 Cavaliers vs. Pistons (+9) 96-88 Under (207.5)
Apr. 13 Cavaliers vs. Pistons (+4) 112-110 Over (194)


During the regular season, the Pistons took three of four matchups but you can toss out last Wednesday’s results since both clubs rested their regulars.


In the first three meetings, Detroit’s best effort came in mid-February as it stifled Cleveland for a 96-88 victory. In the first two meetings, the Pistons couldn’t do anything to slow down the Cavaliers and they were fortunate to rally past them in the fourth quarter. They also outscored them late in January’s setback but make no mistake that Cleveland controlled that game from start to finish.


Fast forward to this Sunday and I believe the Pistons only shot to be competitive in this series is by trying to control the pace and make every game ugly. Fortunately for them, the club acquired some athletic big men at the trade deadline in Tobias Harris and Marcus Morris. These guys aren’t slouches and their size combined with center Andre Drummond should muck up the middle for Cleveland.


On the road, Detroit went 7-6 both straight up and against the spread while the ‘under’ produced a 9-4 record in those games. Beating Cleveland at Quickens Loan Arena (33-8 SU, 20-21 ATS) won’t be an easy task, but staying within the number is a completely different story.


Cleveland has been listed as a double-digit favorite 20 times this season and the club has gone 18-2 with both losses coming at home. More importantly, the club has only managed to go 7-12-1 against the spread (35%) in these games. While that could have you leaning to Detroit and the points, be aware that the Pistons have gone 0-6 SU and 2-4 ATS when catching 10-plus points this season. The ‘under’ went 5-1 in those games.


If there is an edge in this series for Detroit, it’s coaching and Stan Van Gundy. The veteran owns a 48-39 record in the playoffs and he’s facing Tyronn Lue, who’s never been in this role. A lot of pundits believe coaching doesn’t matter in the NBA and that argument was certainly solidified last summer when a pair of rookie coaches (Steve Kerr, David Blatt) met in the finals. For our purposes, make a note that Van Gundy has never been swept in a playoff series. One more tidbit for you – the Cavaliers were 27-14 under Lue this season and 30-11 under the aforementioned Blatt.


Albeit short, the three-day break could benefit Cleveland more in this spot. The Cavs went 4-1 both SU and ATS during the season when playing on at least three days rest or more and they blasted teams by an average of 14 points per game. Total bettors should note that the ‘under’ was a perfect 5-0 in those games. Detroit was 2-3 both SU and ATS in similar circumstances while the ‘under’ was 4-1.


I'm hesitant to back teams that don’t have a lot of scoring depth and that sums up Detroit but based on the expected style and total trends above, I’m leaning to the low side in Game 1.


Game 2 is set for Wednesday from Quicken Loans Arena.


Charlotte at Miami (TNT, 5:35 p.m. ET)


This matchup is as close as it gets with the Heat and Hornets entering the postseason with identical 48-34 records. The clubs met four times in the regular season and they split the series with each team winning once on the other’s homecourt.


2015-16 Regular Season (2-2)


Oct. 28 Heat (-6.5) vs. Hornets 104-94 Over (194)
Dec. 9 Heat at Hornets (+1) 99-81 Under (192)
Feb. 5 Heat (+4) at Hornets 98-95 Under (194.5)
Mar. 17 Heat vs. Hornets (+4.5) 109-106 Over (208)


The Heat are listed as minus-150 favorites (Bet $100 to win $67) to win the series, which is the shortest price of all eight opening round matchups. The takeback on Charlotte is plus-130 (Bet $100 to win $130).


If a big part of your handicapping depends on playoff history, Miami has had much more success as a franchise than Charlotte. Head coach Erik Spoelstra owns a 63-36 record in the postseason but there is a huge asterisk with that mark. He’s 4-8 without LeBron James and that includes a pair of first round exits.


Meanwhile, Charlotte hasn’t won a playoff series since 2002 and it’s been swept out of the postseason in their most recent trips. The club lost four straight to the Magic in 2010 and were dusted by the Heat in the 2014 playoffs. Current coach Steve Clifford has never won a NBA playoff game.


For the opener on Sunday, Miami has been installed as a 4 ½-point home favorite and it’s been good in this role. As a home favorite of five points or less, the Heat have gone 12-6 SU and 10-7-1 ATS this season. Within the same spread range (1-5 points), Charlotte is 6-7 SU and 8-5 ATS as a road underdog.


Inside the numbers, Miami has an edge in field goal percentage (47% to 43.9%) but Charlotte is much more efficient from 3-point land (36.2% to 33.6%) and the free throw stripe (79% to 74.4%).


Defensively, Miami is ranked fifth in the NBA with 98.4 points per game allowed and Charlotte (100.7 PPG) is not far behind. With that being said, the total for Game 1 opened at 202 ½ and has dropped down to 200 at most betting shops and I’d expect it to get lower.


The time off isn’t that big deal in my opinion and neither team has had many long breaks during the season. When playing on three days or more during the season, Miami (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) has benefited more than Charlotte (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) but both have shown the ability to play faster too, producing 2-1 ‘over’ marks.


I don’t have a strong feel for Game 1 but I predicted Charlotte to win this series in six games, which means they’ll win at least one in Miami. I’m a little hesitant to go against Dwyane Wade but Miami isn’t a great shooting team and I like what Charlotte has done with center Al Jefferson coming off the bench now. The Hornets have played well down the stretch and have a sense of confidence that we haven’t seen from this team in previous seasons.


These teams will meet again Wednesday in Game 2 from American Airlines Arena and I’d expect the Zig-Zag theory to be in play for the next contest. Especially knowing that neither team has dropped back-to-back games since the All-Star break.

 

[CNOTES]

Sunday's Late Tips
April 17, 2016




Memphis at San Antonio, 8:05 p.m. ET - TNT


2015-16 Meetings


Nov 21, 2015 - Memphis 82 at San Antonio 92 (Spurs -8, Under 190)
Dec 3, 2015 - San Antonio 103 at Memphis 83 (Spurs -3, Over 183)
Mar 25, 2016 - Memphis 104 at San Antonio 110 (Grizzlies +13, Over 190.5)
Mar 28, 2016 - San Antonio 101 at Memphis 87 (Spurs -5.5, Under 193)


It's a credit to everyone affiliated with the Grizzlies organization that the team plays on without Marc Gasol and Mike Conley, both of whom have been lost for the season. Memphis also sent Courtney Lee to Charlotte because it figured its season would end after 82 and couldn’t pass up on a good deal, so there’s an element of surprise to its inclusion in this postseason as the team makes its sixth consecutive playoff appearance. It’s Zach Randolph’s team, but the supporting cast consists of Tony Allen, Vince Carter, Matt Barnes, Lance Stephenson, Chris Andersen, JaMychal Green and Jordan Farmar. All are basically cast-offs from the land of misfit toys, haunted their entire careers by the things they can’t do well. Still, all have been willing defenders and have understood they don’t’ have the luxury to cut corners, so they’ve defeated the Clippers and taken the Warriors to OT on nights where they weren’t mentally prepared to play.


That isn’t likely to be the case against San Antonio, who has treated the regular season like a layup line and is fresh for this series with all hands on deck. LaMarcus Aldridge has been dealing with a finger injury suffered against Golden State and is playing with his pinky taped to another finger, hoping time will ultimately increase his range of motion. He’ll play in the series. The Grizzlies have lost 10 of 11 games outright, beating only the Bulls at home in a stretch which began with a setback at the Lakers.


The Spurs have dropped three of five, losing twice to Golden State and once in Denver with most regulars resting. Aldridge participated in three games against the Griz, averaging 27 points and 9.7 boards while shooting 65 percent from the field. Kawhi Leonard has only played against Memphis twice this season, averaging 23 points and 7.5 rebounds. The ‘under’ has prevailed in six of the last nine San Antonio games. Randolph has only been out there against the Spurs once all season, scoring nine points and grabbing six boards. He averaged 17.3 points per game in April since becoming the focal point of the offense. San Antonio is 37-0 straight up as a double-digit favorite, but is just 20-17 against the spread in that situation. Memphis is just 1-7 SU as a double-digit dog, but is 5-3 against the number.


Portland at L.A. Clippers, 10:35 p.m. ET - TNT


2015-16 Meetings


Nov 20, 2015 - L.A. Clippers 91 at Portland 102 (Blazers +4.5, Under 210)
Nov 30, 2015 - Portland 87 at L.A. Clippers 102 (Clippers -7, Under 206)
Jan 6, 2016 - L.A. Clippers 109 at Portland 98 (Clippers -3.5, Over 205.5)
Mar 24, 2016 - Portland 94 at L.A. Clippers 96 (Blazers +5.5, Under 216)

Portland's Terry Stotts has a real shot at Coach of the Year given the unexpected success his team has experienced this season. After losing Aldridge, Nicolas Batum, Wes Matthews and Robin Lopez to other teams, the Trail Blazers paid to keep Damian Lillard happy long-term and decided to build around him with other young talent. The franchise couldn’t have envisioned the growth Most Improved front-runner CJ McCollum would make, not to mention the contributions wings like Al-Farouq Aminu and Mo Harkless would make given the opportunity. The Blazers nearly doubled their expected season win total in finishing fifth in the Western Conference, beating out a number of teams that came into the season as top contenders for the NBA title.


Despite all this, the Trail Blazers are undoubtedly the underdog in this series, opening on the road at Staples Center against a Clippers squad that finished with the sixth-best record in the league despite missing Blake Griffin for 47 games with multiple injuries, most recently a broken hand suffered while punching a friend and team employee back in January. Griffin has averaged 22.5 points, 7.5 rebounds and 6.5 assists in splitting a pair of games against Portland back in November, but hasn’t been a part of the last two meetings, both Clippers wins. Since returning on April 3, Griffin has gotten into five contests, averaging just 10.4 points and 5.8 rebounds while shooting 40 percent from the field. He’s notched one double-double, playing more than 25 minutes in a single game only once. Although Doc Rivers is expected to give him a longer leash to help him get his rhythm this postseason, the expectation is that he still won’t be himself early in this series.


L.A. point guard Chris Paul outplayed Lillard in the most recent meeting between these teams back on March 24, scoring 25 points and dishing out seven assists while holding the Blazers star to just 18 points on 4-for-16 shooting. Lillard really struggled against L.A. this season, averaging 18.0 points, more than seven below his season average, while shooting just 32 percent, his worst clip against any team this season besides Philadelphia. Jamal Crawford added 25 points off the bench in the most recent outing against Portland and has scored 30 or more points in two of the last five contests, closing his Sixth Man of the Year campaign in style. DeAndre Jordan played in all four games against the Blazers, averaging 14.0 points, 16.5 rebounds and 2.3 blocks while shooting over 65 percent from the field. If he can keep Mason Plumlee from being a factor in the paint, Portland will be too one-dimensional and perimeter-oriented to pull the upset in the series. Although the Trail Blazers have won seven of the last nine games, they’re just 3-6 ATS in those contests. L.A. has won 10 of 12 outright, going 8-4 against the number in that span. The ‘under’ was prevailed in nine of the last 13 Clippers games.

 

[CNOTES]

Sunday's Top Action
April 16, 2016


DETROIT PISTONS (44-38) at CLEVELAND CAVALIERS (57-25)
Eastern Conference – Round 1
Time/TV: ABC, 3:35 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Cleveland -10.5, Total: 201

The Pistons will be looking to steal a Game 1 victory when they face the Cavaliers in Cleveland on Sunday.

The Pistons were able to grab the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference and they’ll now be hoping to upset the Cavaliers in the first round of the playoffs. Detroit just might be feeling optimistic about its chances, as the team defeated Cleveland in three of the four meetings in this regular season head-to-head series. One of those games was the final game of the regular season for each team and most of the starters were resting for both the Cavaliers and Pistons. Detroit was 3-1 ATS in those four contests and the team will now look to win on a stage that actually matters.

For the Cavaliers, losing is really not an option. This is a championship or bust year for the team and the Cavaliers know that.

One interesting trend in this game is that Detroit is 23-7 ATS after a division game under Stan Van Gundy. Yet, the Cavaliers are 10-2 ATS when revenging a loss where an opponent scored 100 points or more this season. They’re also playing a Detroit team that is 5-14 ATS in road games after playing on the road this season.

PG Reggie Jackson (Abdominal) is a bit banged up heading into this one, but he will be on the court for the Pistons. The Cavaliers, meanwhile, could be without PG Mo Williams (Knee). He is listed as questionable for the team, but his absence wouldn’t necessarily hurt Cleveland’s chances in this contest.

The Pistons played well against the Cavaliers in the regular season, but the playoffs are a whole different animal. Cleveland is out for an NBA championship, so Detroit will be playing a team that is super locked in on Sunday.

One thing the Pistons have working in their favor is that they are much stronger at the center position. C Andre Drummond (16.2 PPG, 14.8 RPG, 1.4 BPG) should really be able to have his way inside in this series. Nobody on Cleveland has the combination of size and athleticism that he possesses, so he’ll need to be extremely aggressive. In three meetings with the Cavs, Drummond averaged 20.3 PPG and 13.7 RPG in the regular season. He may need to do even more the rest of this series.

Another guy that should be in for a big series is PG Reggie Jackson (18.8 PPG, 6.6 APG). Kyrie Irving is not a very good defender, so Jackson should be able to find plenty of success in this one. He’s a good shooter from the outside and also gets himself to the rim with his ability to change speeds well. If he can hold his own defensively then it’d also be big for Detroit.

The x-factor for the Pistons will likely be SF Tobias Harris (14.7 PPG, 6.7 RPG). Harris is a very solid offensively player and knows how to score both inside and outside. His ability to score will not be questioned in this series, but he will need to defend at a high level. Harris will likely be matched up with LeBron James and the Pistons have no chance of winning on Sunday if Harris can’t hold his own defensively. It’s impossible to completely shut down James, but Harris would be doing his job if he can just slow him down a little.

SF LeBron James (25.3 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 6.8 APG, 1.4 SPG) and the Cavaliers coasted through the regular season and will now be looking to defeat the Pistons in the opening round of the playoffs. James had some trouble with this team during the year, averaging just 20.7 PPG on 41.8% shooting from the field in three meetings with Detroit this season. James must do his best to get to the basket in this one, as he needs to be efficient this series. He is at his best around the rim and can’t afford to just settle for jumpers on Sunday.

If the Cavs are going to ultimately go as far as they hope then PG Kyrie Irving (19.6 PPG, 4.7 APG, 1.1 SPG) and PF Kevin Love (16.0 PPG, 9.9 RPG) will need to bring their games to another level. Irving has a tough matchup with Reggie Jackson in this series, but he is a lot quicker than the Pistons’ guard and should be able to blow by him often. Irving is also a very good shooter from the outside and that will come in handy when James is looking to kick the ball out to his teammates.

Love is also an excellent shooter and he’ll need to be ready to make some shots in catch-and-shoot situations. He’s also, however, a very good player around the basket. The Pistons are not very good at defending the power forward position, so the Cavaliers would be wise to get Love some opportunities in the post this series.

One guy that could be a huge x-factor for the Cavaliers is SG J.R. Smith (12.4 PPG, 1.1 SPG). Smith is one of the best shooters in the NBA and he has the ability to get really hot from deep. He can swing any series if he is knocking down shots and there’s no reason to believe he won’t.

PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS (44-38) at LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS (53-29)

Western Conference – Round 1
Time/TV: TNT, 10:35 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Los Angeles -8, Total: 208.5

The Clippers will be looking to get themselves off to a quick series lead with a win at home over the Blazers in Game 1.

The Blazers shocked a lot of people by making the playoffs and they’ll now be hoping to upset a very good Clippers team. Both teams are entering this series after having finished the regular season off strong. Portland won seven of its final 10 games and Los Angeles won eight of its final 10.

The Clippers hold the edge in this head-to-head series recently, as they won three of the four meetings between these teams on the year. They are 7-4 SU versus the Blazers over the past three seasons, but Portland is 6-5 ATS in those contests. The Blazers also happen to be 4-1 ATS when playing at Staples Center in that span.

One trend worth noting when looking at this game is that Portland is 13-4 ATS when playing a team that has beaten it twice in a row this season. The Blazers know how to make adjustments and that will be crucial in this series.

C Meyers Leonard (Shoulder) is out for the year for the Blazers and SG J.J. Redick (Heel) is listed as questionable for the Clippers, but it’s hard to see him missing this one.

The Blazers are not being given a chance by many people, but that was also the case before the season started and here they are in the postseason. If Portland is going to steal Game 1 then the team will need a huge game from PG Damian Lillard (25.1 PPG, 6.8 APG, 4.0 RPG). Lillard has really struggled against the Clippers this season, averaging just 18.0 PPG on 32.4% shooting from the field in four meetings with the team. Lillard needs to be more efficient on Sunday, but he’ll also need to play solid defense. If Chris Paul torches him then Portland is going to get blown out.

While Lilllard could have trouble against Paul, SG C.J. McCollum (20.8 PPG, 4.3 APG, 1.2 SPG) should be able to play well in this series. The Clippers do not have many wing defenders that are capable of sticking with him, so he’ll need to be aggressive in this series. McCollum’s a very good shooter and he is also creative when he gets into the lane.

SF Al Farouq-Aminu (10.2 PPG, 6.1 RPG) will likely be the x-factor in this series, though. Portland needs him to really step it up in order to win a few games against Los Angeles. He could see some minutes as a small-ball power forward and if that’s the case then he’ll need to be tough. Blake Griffin is not an easy cover for anybody, so somebody will need to rise to the occasion and defend him well this series.

The Clippers finished off the year playing some impressive basketball, but they will really need PF Blake Griffin (21.4 PPG, 8.4 RPG, 4.9 APG) to return to form soon. Griffin is averaging just 14.0 PPG and 8.7 RPG over the past three contests. He has not looked like himself since returning from hand and quad injuries, but this is a fresh start for him. The Clippers need him to be a force around the basket and it’d be big if he can also knock down some jumpers in this series. The Blazers are weakest at the power forward position and Griffin can really give Los Angeles an advantage in this series.

PG Chris Paul (19.5 PPG, 10.0 APG, 4.2 RPG, 2.1 SPG) is still, however, the Clippers’ best player. Paul has owned Damian Lillard in the past and he will need to continue to do so beginning on Sunday. If Paul can contain Lillard defensively then the Blazers won’t have much of a shot to win this series. Paul should also be able to average a double-double on the offensive end. He is extremely tough to guard as a scorer and the Blazers don’t have much size inside, so Paul should average a ton of assists from finding his big guys.

C DeAndre Jordan (12.7 PPG, 13.8 RPG, 2.3 BPG) should be the beneficiary of a lot of Paul’s passes. Jordan will catch plenty of lobs in this series, but he’ll mostly be counted on to rebound and defend. If he can protect the rim then the Clippers will be in good shape moving forward.

 

[CNOTES]

East parity leaves Cavs as hunted
April 15, 2016


Whenever anyone looked up from what Golden State managed to accomplish long enough to address the Eastern Conference, the question that typically followed has remained the same for months.


If not the Cavs, then who?


Despite a drama-filled season featuring multiple LeBron James veiled tweets citing displeasure with his teammates, a poor record against the NBA's other elite teams and the midseason firing of head coach David Blatt, Cleveland locked up the No. 1 seed in the East. They also surpassed the projected season win total set at 56.5 by the Westgate LV Superbook, going 57-25.


Since homecourt means so much to a team like the Cavs, the fact the path to the Eastern Conference title goes through Quicken Loans Arena offers a huge advantage Cleveland ranks just behind the Spurs and Warriors with a 33-8 home record, so ensuring that a Game 1 and Game 7 will be played at the Q was a top priority that contributed to holding off the No. 2-seeded Raptors.


Sportsbook.ag lists them at -260 (1-to-2.6) to get out of the East and play for the NBA championship for the second consecutive year.


Which brings us back to the question of who, if anyone, is best equipped to knock them off.


Toronto has garnered enough respect to have earned the nod from oddsmakers, coming in at +500 (5-to-1) despite having never reached a conference finals in franchise history. In fact, the Raptors have only won a single series since coming on the NBA scene in 1996, way back in 2001. The Raps are 1-7 in playoff series, winning just 14 of 42 games.


This particular group, led by All-Star guards Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan, has failed to get out of the first round in each of the last two seasons despite being the higher-seeded team. Last season, Toronto was surprisingly swept out of the playoffs by the Wizards as the No. 4 seed. Despite this, there's plenty to like, since Lowry and DeRozan have become more efficient, center Jonas Valanciunas has improved and vets like Cory Joseph and Luis Scola have helped breed a winning climate. The Raptors defend like few others in the conference, but to me, they’re not the clear-cut choice for the second option behind the Cavs.


For my money, Miami and Atlanta, who tied Charlotte and Boston with identical 48-34 records but will have homecourt advantage over them in the first round, have to be considered the most significant threats to Cleveland's throne.


The Hawks are at +1000 (10-to-1) and have recovered from losing DeMarre Carroll in the offseason, plugging in Kent Bazemore and Thabo Sefolosha in that spot. Since Paul Millsap, Jeff Teague, Al Horford, Kyle Korver, Dennis Schroder and Mike Scott all played significant roles in last year's run to the Eastern Conference finals, you have to consider Atlanta a significant threat to get back there. The Hawks proved last year that Philips Arena can be a tough place to play when their typically apathetic fan base shows up, so expect an excellent environment on Saturday. Atlanta will support a winner. It's not out of the question that they'll get one to back.


The Hawks defeated the Celtics in three of four contests, but only one of their meetings has come in 2016, last weekend’s 118-107 home win where they shot 52 percent and hit 17 3-pointers. Paul Millsap finished with 31 points and 16 rebounds, so this appears to be his series.


The Heat are priced at +1200 (12-to-1) to win the Eastern Conference and are certainly at the top of my list of teams that can knock off Cleveland. While it doesn't appear they're going to get All-Star Chris Bosh back, the acquisition of Joe Johnson has transformed Miami into one of the most efficient offensive teams in the NBA since he arrived. His ability to spread the floor has provided space for Dwyane Wade and Goran Dragic to create for others, not to mention giving Hassan Whiteside more room to work inside. That’s been a game-changer. Whiteside, the league's leading shot blocker has continued to progress as an offensive threat and is the top x-factor in the East’s postseason picture. Although rookies aren't typically reliable, defense-oriented elite athletes Justise Winslow and Josh Richardson have helped change games with their ability to lock up on the perimeter. They've performed like veterans, which makes Miami versatile and dangerous.


Beyond the kids, the presence of Wade, Luol Deng, Amar'e Stoudemire and Udonis Haslem, guys who have been through the playoff wars, affords the Heat a toughness that few teams have. If there's anyone that can get in the head of LeBron's younger mates, it's his former squad. You can bet he knows this and would rather not see Miami on his playoff odyssey in a conference finals. Although James still has business interests in South Florida and has visited plenty this season, Heat fans love to ride him and would spice up a series with their influence.


Boston and Charlotte were installed at +1500 (15-to-1) earlier this week, but the Hornets are now +2500 (25-to-1) and is the more appealing longshot considering that the difference between them and the Celtics in negligible. Neither packs significant playoff experience. Both teams are superbly coached by Brad Stevens and Steve Clifford, and they're led by guards who can get hot enough to sway a series in Isaiah Thomas and Kemba Walker. Both also have versatile weapons at small forward who can make James work in Jae Crowder and Nicolas Batum, tough defenders who command attention at both ends. The No. 5 and 6 seeds will be dangerous.


Finally, Indiana (+5000, 50-to-1) and Detroit (+7500, 75-to-1) face long odds, but there’s no question the Pacers are far and away the more viable option if you’re interested in purchasing a lottery ticket. Not only will the Pistons have to go through the more formidable Cavs first, they’ll have to overcome a key injury to point guard Reggie Jackson, who suffered an ill-timed abdominal strain and isn’t expected to be 100 percent even if he doesn’t miss a game. Considering a young roster isn’t unlikely to overwhelm anybody, wins will have to come in tight games, which means they’ll have to overcome the glaring weakness that is center Andre Drummond’s free-throw shooting. He’s on a 19-for-65 (29 pct) run at the stripe, compounding the issue enough that it’s left head coach Stan Van Gundy no choice but to start substituting the NBA’s top rebounder out late in games.


The Pacers don’t have those type of weaknesses and can lean on an elite talent in Paul George, who has experience taking a team to within a win of an NBA Finals. Frank Vogel has plenty of veteran guards on the roster, which increases the likelihood that Indiana will be able to keep its composure in a raucous atmosphere north of the border. The Pacers have beaten Toronto only once in four meetings, but own wins against every team in the East playoff landscape with the exception of Charlotte. In a season where parity has reigned in the conference, it’s harder to ride Indiana off than it is Detroit.

 

[CNOTES]

NBA ATS


NBA > (509) DETROIT@ (510) CLEVELAND | 2016-04-17 15:05:00 - 2016-04-17 15:05:00
Play ON DETROIT against the spread in All games after a division game
The record is 23 Wins and 7 Losses for the last two seasons (+15.3 units)


NBA > (513) MEMPHIS@ (514) SAN ANTONIO | 2016-04-17 20:05:00 - 2016-04-17 20:05:00
Play ON MEMPHIS against the spread in All games after allowing 105 points or more
The record is 19 Wins and 6 Losses for the this season (+12.4 units)

NBA > (523) BOSTON@ (524) ATLANTA | 2016-04-19 19:05:00 - 2016-04-19 19:05:00
Play ON BOSTON against the spread in Road games revenging a loss vs opponent
The record is 46 Wins and 20 Losses for the last three seasons (+24 units)


--------------------


NBA MONEYLNE


NBA > (513) MEMPHIS@ (514) SAN ANTONIO | 2016-04-17 20:05:00 - 2016-04-17 20:05:00
Play ON SAN ANTONIO using money line in Home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game
The record is 20 Wins and 1 Losses for the this season (+18.35 units)


NBA > (525) MEMPHIS@ (526) SAN ANTONIO | 2016-04-19 21:35:00 - 2016-04-19 21:35:00
Play ON SAN ANTONIO using money line in Home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game
The record is 20 Wins and 1 Losses for the this season (+18.35 units)


NBA > (513) MEMPHIS@ (514) SAN ANTONIO | 2016-04-17 20:05:00 - 2016-04-17 20:05:00
Play ON SAN ANTONIO using money line in Home games when playing against a team with a winning record
The record is 18 Wins and 1 Losses for the this season (+16.35 units)


NBA > (525) MEMPHIS@ (526) SAN ANTONIO | 2016-04-19 21:35:00 - 2016-04-19 21:35:00
Play ON SAN ANTONIO using money line in Home games when playing against a team with a winning record
The record is 18 Wins and 1 Losses for the this season (+16.35 units)


NBA > (511) CHARLOTTE@ (512) MIAMI | 2016-04-17 17:35:00 - 2016-04-17 17:35:00
Play ON MIAMI using money line in All games in a home game where where the total is between 200 and 204.5 points
The record is 66 Wins and 11 Losses for the since 1992 (+43.7 units)

NBA > (511) CHARLOTTE@ (512) MIAMI | 2016-04-17 17:35:00 - 2016-04-17 17:35:00
Play ON MIAMI using money line in All games on Sunday games
The record is 18 Wins and 7 Losses for the last two seasons (+17.1 units)

NBA > (521) HOUSTON@ (522) GOLDEN STATE | 2016-04-18 22:35:00 - 2016-04-18 22:35:00
Play ON GOLDEN STATE using money line in All games after a win by 10 points or more
The record is 58 Wins and 11 Losses for the last two seasons (+34.1 units)


NBA > (519) DALLAS@ (520) OKLAHOMA CITY | 2016-04-18 20:05:00 - 2016-04-18 20:05:00
Play AGAINST DALLAS using money line in All games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season
The record is 15 Wins and 35 Losses for the last two seasons (-26.9 units)

NBA > (523) BOSTON@ (524) ATLANTA | 2016-04-19 19:05:00 - 2016-04-19 19:05:00
Play ON BOSTON using money line in Road games revenging a loss vs opponent
The record is 24 Wins and 19 Losses for the last two seasons (+25.1 units)


NBA > (515) PORTLAND@ (516) LA CLIPPERS | 2016-04-17 22:35:00 - 2016-04-17 22:35:00
Play AGAINST PORTLAND using money line in All games in April games
The record is 93 Wins and 125 Losses for the since 1992 (-90.45 units)


NBA > (509) DETROIT@ (510) CLEVELAND | 2016-04-17 15:05:00 - 2016-04-17 15:05:00
Play ON CLEVELAND using money line in All games revenging a home loss vs opponent
The record is 29 Wins and 20 Losses for the last three seasons (+22.35 units)


NBA > (509) DETROIT@ (510) CLEVELAND | 2016-04-17 15:05:00 - 2016-04-17 15:05:00
Play ON CLEVELAND using money line in All games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season
The record is 35 Wins and 14 Losses for the last two seasons (+18.4 units)


-------------------


NBA FIRST HALF


NBA > (509) DETROIT@ (510) CLEVELAND | 2016-04-17 15:05:00 - 2016-04-17 15:05:00
Play ON CLEVELAND ?>in the first halfin All games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season
The record is 49 Wins and 25 Losses for the last two seasons (+21.5 units)


---------------------


NBA TOTALS


NBA > (523) BOSTON@ (524) ATLANTA | 2016-04-19 19:05:00 - 2016-04-19 19:05:00
Play UNDER ATLANTA on the totalin All games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game
The record is 15 Overs and 43 Unders for the this season (+26.5 units)


NBA > (523) BOSTON@ (524) ATLANTA | 2016-04-19 19:05:00 - 2016-04-19 19:05:00
Play UNDER ATLANTA on the totalin All games versus the first half line in all games
The record is 25 Overs and 57 Unders for the this season (+29.5 units)


NBA > (515) PORTLAND@ (516) LA CLIPPERS | 2016-04-17 22:35:00 - 2016-04-17 22:35:00
Play UNDER LA CLIPPERS on the totalin Home games second half of the season
The record is 2 Overs and 14 Unders for the this season (+11.8 units)


NBA > (513) MEMPHIS@ (514) SAN ANTONIO | 2016-04-17 20:05:00 - 2016-04-17 20:05:00
Play UNDER SAN ANTONIO on the totalin All games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game
The record is 38 Overs and 82 Unders for the last two seasons (+40.2 units)


NBA > (525) MEMPHIS@ (526) SAN ANTONIO | 2016-04-19 21:35:00 - 2016-04-19 21:35:00
Play UNDER SAN ANTONIO on the totalin All games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game
The record is 38 Overs and 82 Unders for the last two seasons (+40.2 units)


NBA > (509) DETROIT@ (510) CLEVELAND | 2016-04-17 15:05:00 - 2016-04-17 15:05:00
Play UNDER CLEVELAND on the totalin Home games on Sunday games
The record is 27 Overs and 72 Unders for the since 1992 (+42.3 units)


NBA > (515) PORTLAND@ (516) LA CLIPPERS | 2016-04-17 22:35:00 - 2016-04-17 22:35:00
Play UNDER LA CLIPPERS on the totalin Home games after scoring 105 points or more
The record is 4 Overs and 17 Unders for the this season (+12.6 units)

NBA > (523) BOSTON@ (524) ATLANTA | 2016-04-19 19:05:00 - 2016-04-19 19:05:00
Play UNDER ATLANTA on the totalin Home games in all playoff games
The record is 12 Overs and 39 Unders for the since 1992 (+25.8 units)


NBA > (517) INDIANA@ (518) TORONTO | 2016-04-18 19:05:00 - 2016-04-18 19:05:00
Play UNDER INDIANA on the totalin All games after 3 or more consecutive wins
The record is 12 Overs and 36 Unders for the last three seasons (+22.8 units)


NBA > (517) INDIANA@ (518) TORONTO | 2016-04-18 19:05:00 - 2016-04-18 19:05:00
Play UNDER INDIANA on the totalin All games as a road underdog of 3.5 to 5 points vs. the 1rst half line
The record is 0 Overs and 10 Unders for the last two seasons (+10 units)


NBA > (509) DETROIT@ (510) CLEVELAND | 2016-04-17 15:05:00 - 2016-04-17 15:05:00
Play UNDER CLEVELAND on the totalin All games on Sunday games
The record is 66 Overs and 129 Unders for the since 1992 (+56.4 units)


NBA > (515) PORTLAND@ (516) LA CLIPPERS | 2016-04-17 22:35:00 - 2016-04-17 22:35:00
Play UNDER LA CLIPPERS on the totalin All games after scoring 105 points or more
The record is 12 Overs and 27 Unders for the this season (+13.8 units)


-------------------


TOP POWER LINES


Users of our matchup reports are familiar with our Power Line ratings, calculated using both teams' ratings and home field advantage. The Top Power Lines tool offers a way to view and compare current Power Lines in one simple report, as well as the Power Line Edge, where the Power Line differs significantly from the current line.


NBA > (509) DETROIT @ (510) CLEVELAND | 2016-04-17 15:05:00 - 2016-04-17 15:05:00
Line: DETROIT BTB PowerLine: DETROIT-7
Edge On: DETROIT (3.5)


NBA > (513) MEMPHIS @ (514) SAN ANTONIO | 2016-04-17 20:05:00 - 2016-04-17 20:05:00
Line: MEMPHIS BTB PowerLine: MEMPHIS-12
Edge On: MEMPHIS (4)


NBA > (515) PORTLAND @ (516) LA CLIPPERS | 2016-04-17 22:35:00 - 2016-04-17 22:35:00
Line: PORTLAND BTB PowerLine: PORTLAND-8
Edge On: PORTLAND (0.5)


NBA > (517) INDIANA @ (518) TORONTO | 2016-04-18 19:05:00 - 2016-04-18 19:05:00
Line: INDIANA BTB PowerLine: INDIANA-5
Edge On: INDIANA (2)


NBA > (519) DALLAS @ (520) OKLAHOMA CITY | 2016-04-18 20:05:00 - 2016-04-18 20:05:00
Line: OKLAHOMA CITY-12.5 BTB PowerLine: OKLAHOMA CITY-15
Edge On: OKLAHOMA CITY (2.5)


NBA > (521) HOUSTON @ (522) GOLDEN STATE | 2016-04-18 22:35:00 - 2016-04-18 22:35:00
Line: HOUSTON BTB PowerLine: HOUSTON-10
Edge On: HOUSTON (3)


NBA > (523) BOSTON @ (524) ATLANTA | 2016-04-19 19:05:00 - 2016-04-19 19:05:00
Line: ATLANTA-6.5 BTB PowerLine: ATLANTA-7
Edge On: ATLANTA (0.5)

 

[CNOTES]

4/16- Results: 5 - 2


Overall: 5 - 2


SUNDAY, APRIL 17


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS




DET at CLE 03:00 PM


DET +11.0


U 200.0



CHA at MIA 05:30 PM


CHA +4.5


U 199.5




MEM at SA 08:00 PM


SA -16.0


O 189.5




POR at LAC 10:30 PM


POR +8.5


U 209.0

 

[CNOTES]

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack


Week 1 NFL pointspreads


Carolina @ Denver (-1)...........................Chicago @ Houston (-4.5)


Tampa Bay @ Atlanta (-3.5)..................Green Bay @ Jacksonville (+3.5)


Minnesota @ Tennessee (+3).................Miami @ Seattle (-7.5)


Cleveland @ Philadelphia (-7.5)..............NJ Giants @ Dallas (-5.5)


NJ Jets @ Cincinnati (even)....................Detroit @ Indianapolis (-5.5)


Oakland @ New Orleans (-1.5)...............New England @ Arizona (even)


San Diego @ Kansas City (-7.5).............Pittsburgh @ Washington (+3)


Buffalo @ Baltimore (-3).........................Los Angeles @ San Francisco (+2.5)


**********


Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sports weekend.........

13) So which QB do the Rams take with the first pick in the draft? Spent an hour this morning watching Jon Gruden's TV shows with Goff/Wentz, trying to learn about both guys, while seeing if Gruden preferred either guy. Hard to tell.


One thing: Goff is a huge SF Giants baseball fan; you wonder if he's a 49er fan too; if he is, kind of awkward to make him the cornerstone of the Rams' franchise.


12) 18 years ago, Colts/Chargers had #1, #2 picks in the draft; there was a standoff in the media which QB rpsopect was the better one, no one seemed to know. Turns out that Peyton Manning was the right choice and Ryan Leaf wasn't. But make no mistake about it, at the time a lot of smart people thought Leaf was the better choice.


11) Apparently, Tennessee is using the extra picks it got from the Rams to try and get back in the top 10 of the first round.


10) Since 1999 in the NBA playoffs, #7 seeds are 1-33 in first round series against the #2 seeds. I've long believed that best-of-7 series are too long in these first round series. It just gets boring watching the #1, #2 seeds pummel inferior teams.


9) In 1981, Mike Schmidt was baseball's highest paid player; he made $2,130,000.


8) Disney has six Star Wars movies planned, all the way thru 2020; its like having this out-of-control printing press in your cellar that just constantly churns out money.


7) On July 2, 2013, the Orioles traded Jake Arrieta, Pedro Strop and cash to the Cubs, for Scott Feldman, Steve Clevenger. Oy. Arrieta hasn't allowed a run at Wrigley Field since last July, thats six scoreless home starts in a row.


6) Couple years ago, Steve Kerr turned down the Knicks' coaching job and went to the Warriors; now his assistant Luke Walton is doing the same thing.


5) Brooklyn Nets hired Hawks' assistant Kenny Atkinson as their new coach; he is said to be a very strong player development coach.


4) On Opening Day, there were 82 Dominican-born major leaguers, an average of three per team. You wonder how the language barrier affects players who weren't born in this country. If I owned a big league team, all my coaches would have to know how to speak Spanish. Communication is very important.


3) Former Iona star AJ English was VP of the Portsmouth tournament this weekend; we'll see if that helps him get drafted in June.


2) Dodgers started Howie Kendrick at 3B this week, first time he's started there since 2006; they also started him in LF, first time he's started there since 2011.


1) Florida State has played in 34 consecutive bowls, the longest current streak in college football; Virginia Tech is next at 23, then Georgia at 19. Funny that all three schools have changed coaches in the last six years, Va Tech and Georgia this year.

 

[CNOTES]

NBA

Monday, April 18

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Monday's NBA playoffs betting preview and odds
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Stephen Curry poured in 24 points in only 19:49 of playing time in the Warriors easy, 104-78, win over the Rockets in Game 1.

The Golden State Warriors aren't sure if they'll be with or without reining MVP Stephen Curry against the Houston Rockets. There is certainly plenty of intrigue heading into Monday's trio of Game 2 matchups.

Indiana Pacers at Toronto Raptors (-7, 193.5)

Pacers lead series 1-0

All-Star forward Paul George and the Indiana Pacers delivered the opening salvo and look to make it two consecutive road victories when they face the Toronto Raptors on Monday. George poured in 33 points in Saturday's 100-90 victory and Indiana attempts to continue the playoff woes of the Raptors.

Second-seeded Toronto hasn't won a playoff series since 2001 and has dropped its last seven postseason games, which includes last season's four losses to the Washington Wizards. "As a team, as a whole, I thought we were tight," Raptors coach Dwane Casey told reporters. "I know our team did not play to our identity, but I know we'll come back Monday night and play to our identity." The seventh-seeded Pacers plan to ride the coattails of George in this series and he is intent on making a mark in his first postseason appearances since badly breaking his right leg in the summer of 2014. "Paul's shot-making at the end of the game was spectacular," Indiana coach Frank Vogel told reporters in reference to George's 27 second-half points. "It's been a long road for him in terms of actually getting back to the court but before his injury, we were in the conference finals."

TV: 7 p.m. ET, NBATV, FSN Indiana, Sportsnet (Toronto)

LINE HISTORY: The Raptors opened as seven-point favorites at home and the spread has yet to move off the opening number. The total opened at 193 and was adjusted slightly to 193.5. View complete line history here.

MATCHUP CHART:



ABOUT THE PACERS (46-37, 42-40-1 ATS, 37-46 O/U): George said after the Game 1 victory that he is still working on getting to be as strong physically as he was prior to the devastating injury that required an arduous recovery. "Some days I felt great, felt like I could have started that night," George told reporters. "Some days I wanted to throw it all in, let Mother Nature heal it without doing any work. It was a little bit of both." George (4-of-5) and shooting guard Monta Ellis (3-of-4) were strong from 3-point range in the opener and Indiana was 11-of-21 overall.

ABOUT THE RAPTORS (56-27, 45-38 ATS, 42-40-1 O/U): Game 1 was filled with offensive inefficiency as Toronto shot 38 percent from the field and committed 20 turnovers that led to 25 Indiana points. "We just missed some shots and turned the ball over," All-Star point guard Kyle Lowry told reporters. "Now there's a series of adjustments we have to do in one day. It's one game. This is not last year. We're very positive, we're very confident." Lowry was just 3-of-13 shooting, All-Star shooting guard DeMar DeRozan was only 5-of-19 and center Jonas Valanciunas - who set a franchise playoff record with 19 rebounds - was just 4-of-14.

TRENDS:

* Pacers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. Eastern Conference.
* Raptors are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss.
* Under is 6-1 in Pacers last 7 Conference Quarterfinals games.
* Over is 6-1 in Raptors last 7 games following a double-digit loss at home.
* Pacers are 2-10 ATS in the last 12 meetings.



Dallas Mavericks at Oklahoma City Thunder (-13.5, 200)

Thunder lead series 1-0

The Oklahoma City Thunder put together an immaculate performance in the series opener and look to outclass Dallas again when they host the visiting Mavericks on Monday. The Thunder rolled to a 108-70 annihilation of Dallas on Saturday in what was the franchise's largest margin of victory in a playoff game since relocating from Seattle to Oklahoma City prior to the 2008-09 campaign.

The third-seeded Thunder missed the playoffs last season and came out with a vengeance against the Mavericks as if they had a point to make. "We just wanted to come out and impose our will early," All-Star forward Kevin Durant told reporters. "We didn't want to ease into the game. We wanted to be the aggressor. We came out and did a good job." Sixth-seeded Dallas set dubious franchise playoff records for fewest points scored and worst field-goal percentage (29.8 percent) in a truly woeful showing. "I guess the only positive I take out if this - it's only one game," power forward Dirk Nowitzki told reporters. "If you lose by two or by 50, in the playoffs, it's only one game. We've got another crack to steal one on Monday night. We've got to play harder, we've got to play better. It's as simple as that."

TV: 8 p.m. ET, TNT, FSN Oklahoma

LINE HISTORY: Oklahoma City opened as 13-point favorites but that line was quickly bet up to -13.5. The total opened at 202 and the public jumped all over the under, forcing the books to drop the number a full two points to 200. View complete line history here.

MATCHUP CHART:



ABOUT THE MAVERICKS (42-41, 45-37-1 ATS, 39-43-1 O/U): Point guard J.J. Barea has been one of the team's better players this month but his availability is in jeopardy after he aggravated a groin injury during the second half of Game 1. "I'm very, very concerned," Dallas coach Rick Carlisle told reporters. "I think something happened. I don't think it's just tight." Nowitzki scored 18 points on Saturday and the rest of the starting lineup combined for just 12 points on 5-of-25 shooting as guards Deron Williams (1-of-9), Wesley Matthews (3-of-10) and Barea (1-of-6) were unable to get untracked.

ABOUT THE THUNDER (56-27, 38-44-1 ATS, 39-44 O/U): Point guard Russell Westbrook (24 points and 11 assists in 29 minutes) and Durant (23 points in 26 minutes) were productive as usual but Oklahoma City also received a strong performance from power forward Serge Ibaka, who had 17 points on 7-of-8 shooting to go with nine rebounds and three blocked shots. Ibaka has struggled recently and went 1-of-12 from the field in his final regular-season appearance but was a much different player in the assault of the Mavericks. "When he's knocking (down shots), it opens it up for us on the offensive end," Durant told reporters. "Then guarding Dirk is tough. He made it tough on him all night. He was helping off, protecting the rim, spreading the floor. He was good, but we need him to be better next game."

TRENDS:

* Mavericks are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 Conference Quarterfinals games.
* Thunder are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
* Under is 6-1 in Mavericks last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
* Under is 5-1 in Thunder last 6 vs. NBA Southwest.
* Under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Oklahoma City.



Houston Rockets at Golden State Warriors (-13, 218)

Warriors lead series 1-0

The Golden State Warriors looked every bit like the best team in the NBA in Game 1 of their first-round series but did not come out of the 26-point victory with all positives. The Warriors hope to have star guard Stephen Curry (ankle) available when they host the eighth-seeded Houston Rockets in Game 2 on Monday.

Curry scored 24 points in 19 minutes in Game 1 but rolled his right ankle and barely played in the second half as the Warriors cruised to a 104-78 win. Coach Steve Kerr called him “questionable” for Game 2, but Curry disagreed. "Right now, don't see a scenario where I'll be out," Curry told reporters. "Obviously, if it's not right and I'm at risk of further injury or whatnot, that's the only thing that we'll have to worry about. Pain tolerance and all that stuff, I kind of know what I can deal with on the court. But you don't want anything more serious to happen, favoring an ankle or whatnot. So that's what we'll kind of pay attention to the next two days.” The Rockets will spend their off day trying to figure out how to coax more offense out of a team that shot 35.7 percent from the field, including 6-of-22 from 3-point range, in the opener.

TV: 10:30 p.m. ET, TNT, ROOT (Houston), CSN Bay Area (Golden State)

LINE HISTORY: The Warriors opened as 12.5-point favorites for Game 2 and that line was adjusted up slightly to -13. The total opened at 220 but the betting public decided that number was too high and the books adjusted the number to 218. View complete line history here.

MATCHUP CHART:



ABOUT THE ROCKETS (41-42, 37-46 ATS, 47-36 O/U): Houston went with a smaller lineup to try to counter Golden State, inserting Corey Brewer into the starting lineup in place of power forward Donatas Motiejunas to give the defense more athleticism. "Defensively, we thought it gave us more versatility to switch things," Rockets interim coach J.B. Bickerstaff told reporters. "Games we've watched, the way we've studied it, the teams that have had success versus them defensively weren't chasing them all over the floor. They just check in front of them. So we went that way." The defensive changes backfired and the offense stalled as star James Harden went 7-of-19 from the floor and did not attempt a free throw for the first time in 148 games.

ABOUT THE WARRIORS (74-9, 46-35-2 ATS, 45-37-1 O/U): Golden State was plus-28 with Curry on the floor in Game 1 and doesn’t want to play without its star, but is prepared if necessary. “If you lose the MVP, it’s going to change your team,” Warriors forward Draymond Green told reporters. “I think he’ll be fine at some point. One man is not going to come out and be Steph Curry. We have to do it collectively. But we have the blueprint (for winning without Curry). We know we can do it, if we have to.” Fellow All-Star guard Klay Thompson struggled from the field (4-of-14) but Green collected 12 points and 10 rebounds and Golden State scored 33 points off Houston’s 24 turnovers in Game 1.

TRENDS:

* Rockets are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 Conference Quarterfinals games.
* Warriors are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Southwest.
* Under is 6-0 in Rockets last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
* Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Golden State.

 

[CNOTES]

NBA
Dunkel

Monday, April 18


Indiana @ Toronto

Game 517-518
April 18, 2016 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Indiana
121.718
Toronto
124.174
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Toronto
by 2 1/2
189
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Toronto
by 7
194
Dunkel Pick:
Indiana
(+7); Under

Dallas @ Oklahoma City

Game 519-520
April 18, 2016 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Dallas
118.349
Oklahoma City
126.737
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oklahoma City
by 8 1/2
197
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oklahoma City
by 13
201
Dunkel Pick:
Dallas
(+13); Under

Houston @ Golden State

Game 521-522
April 18, 2016 @ 10:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
116.252
Golden State
131.890
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Golden State
by 15 1/2
222
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Golden State
by 13
218
Dunkel Pick:
Golden State
(-13); Over




NBA
Short Sheet

Monday, April 18

Indiana at Toronto, 3:00 ET
Indiana: 21-10 ATS after playing a game as an underdog
Toronto: 10-24 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite

Dallas at Oklahoma City, 3:00 ET
Dallas: 50-27 ATS off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more
Oklahoma City: 29-40 ATS after playing a game as favorite

Houston at Golden State, 3:00 ET
Houston: 48-72 ATS on road revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more
Golden State: 14-5 ATS against Southwest division opponents




NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Monday, April 18

Indiana-Toronto (Ind 1-0)
Toronto lost its last five first round series; last time they won a first round series was 2001- they got upset 100-90 here Saturday, turning ball over 19 times, going 4-19 on arc, so pressure on them to even series before it heads to Indy. Raptors won seven of last nine games with Indiana; Toronto has covered nine of last 11 series games- six of last nine went over total. Pacers won seven of last nine t overall, four of last five on the road. Raptors won seven of last ten games overall, covering five of last eight.

Dallas-Oklahoma City (OC 1-0)
OC was up 59-33 at half in Saturday's rout; Thunder won last five games with Dallas, but Mavericks are 6-5 vs spread in last 11 vs OKC. Seven of last ten series games went over. Dallas won seven of last ten games, covered four of last six as a dog- Eight of last ten Dallas games stayed under total. Mavericks shot 29.8% in big loss Saturday, 4-18 on arc. Thunder was 12-35 on arc. Every west Game 1 saw favorite win by 20+; dogs were 3-1 vs spread in east.

Houston-Golden State (G 1-0)
Curry's ankle is only question here; he played very little in 2nd half of huge rout Saturday; was it a precaution? Golden State won 10 of last 11 games (7-4 vs the spread) against Houston, covering last six played here. Rockets won three of last four games, are 3-2 vs spread in five tries as an underdog. Warriors won by 26 in first game Saturday, leading 60-33 at half, have to question whether the Rockets want to compete- they shot 36% from floor, 12-24 on line, 6-22 on arc.

Playoff tally: Favorites vs spread: 6-2, Over: 2-6




NBA

Monday, April 18

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

7:00 PM
INDIANA vs. TORONTO
Indiana is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indiana's last 5 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Toronto is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Indiana
Toronto is 21-4 SU in its last 25 games at home

8:00 PM
DALLAS vs. OKLAHOMA CITY
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Dallas's last 8 games when playing on the road against Oklahoma City
Dallas is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oklahoma City's last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oklahoma City's last 7 games when playing Dallas

10:30 PM
HOUSTON vs. GOLDEN STATE
Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Golden State
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 9 games when playing Golden State
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Golden State's last 5 games when playing at home against Houston
Golden State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

 

[CNOTES]

NBA
Long Sheet

Monday, April 18

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

INDIANA (46 - 37) at TORONTO (56 - 27) - 4/18/2016, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
INDIANA is 25-14 ATS (+9.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
TORONTO is 170-211 ATS (-62.1 Units) in home games second half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 10-2 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 8-4 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
6 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DALLAS (42 - 41) at OKLAHOMA CITY (56 - 27) - 4/18/2016, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 28-41 ATS (-17.1 Units) second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 37-51 ATS (-19.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 18-34 ATS (-19.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 10-21 ATS (-13.1 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 346-279 ATS (+39.1 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
DALLAS is 462-384 ATS (+39.6 Units) in road games since 1996.
DALLAS is 84-57 ATS (+21.3 Units) in a road game where where the total is between 200 and 204.5 points since 1996.
DALLAS is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) against Northwest division opponents this season.
DALLAS is 182-144 ATS (+23.6 Units) in road games revenging a loss vs opponent since 1996.
DALLAS is 136-103 ATS (+22.7 Units) in road games after allowing 105 points or more since 1996.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 36-44 ATS (-12.4 Units) in all games this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 24-36 ATS (-15.6 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA CITY is 6-6 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA CITY is 7-5 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
7 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HOUSTON (41 - 42) at GOLDEN STATE (74 - 9) - 4/18/2016, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 37-46 ATS (-13.6 Units) in all games this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 45-35 ATS (+6.5 Units) in all games this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 42-34 ATS (+4.6 Units) as a favorite this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 53-38 ATS (+11.2 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 117-87 ATS (+21.3 Units) in April games since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) against Southwest division opponents this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) in the first round of the playoffs since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 56-40 ATS (+12.0 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 59-45 ATS (+9.5 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 34-23 ATS (+8.7 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 60-42 ATS (+13.8 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 24-13 ATS (+9.7 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 38-23 ATS (+12.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 9-22 ATS (-15.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 10-6 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 13-3 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
10 of 16 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[CNOTES]

Playoff Zig-Zag Theory
April 17, 2016

In NBA handicapping circles, Zig Zags are trendy applications that have been profitable moneymakers during the playoffs.


The premise is simple: "Play On" a team off a playoff loss in its very next game.

The theory is that in a short series involving imminent elimination, a team in more inclined to bounce back with a good effort off a losing performance than it is to continue its losing ways.

How have these plays held up of late? You might be surprised.

Here are point-spread results of NBA Playoff Zig Zags from 1991 through 2015.

Game On, Dude

Overall: 819-726-38(53.0%)


Game Two: 204-159-13 (56.2%)


Game Three: 201-168-8(54.5%)


Game Four: 167-170-8 (49.6%)


Game Five: 135-124-7(52.1%)


Game Six: 79-70-2 (51.6%)


Game Seven: 30-27-2 (52.5%)

The strength of NBA Zig Zags appears to be in Game Two where they become a better than 56% point-spread play on the blind.

Burn Baby Burn

Like all things that are popular, though, they eventually burn out and revert back to the norm.

A combination of the ‘law of averages’ and an adjustment by the oddsmakers has seen the NBA Zig Zags go up in smoke since 2001.

That’s confirmed by the fact that these plays slipped dramatically the last 15 years (2001-2015), going 508-477-28 – or 51.6% - overall as opposed to a 311-249-10 mark – or 55.5% - in games played from 1991-2000.

That’s a decline of nearly 4 full percentage points. Or in bottom line terms, they have been money burners on the blind the last 15 seasons. Talk about a buzz kill.

Round ‘Em Up

Here is a breakdown of how the Zig Zags have fared during each round of the NBA
Playoffs since 1991:

Round One: 393-346-22 (53.2%)


Round Two: 204-159-13 (56.2%)


Round Three: 120-111-6 (51.9%)


Round Four: 60-53-3 (53.1%)

While it appears Round Two holds a discernable edge, it should be noted that home teams off a double-digit loss in Round Two have yielded the largest profits, as they are 83-54-3 (60.6%).

Planting The Seeds

Here is a breakdown of how the Zig Zags have fared by seed during NBA Playoffs:

No. 1 Seeds: 117-106-5 (52.5%)


No. 2 Seeds: 113-92-4 (55.1%)


No. 3 Seeds: 97-85-9 (53.3%)


No. 4 Seeds: 80-76-1(51.3%)


No. 5 Seeds: 75-71-3(51.4%)


No. 6 Seeds: 81-76-2-2(51.6%)


No. 7 Seeds: 44-65-4(40.4%)


No. 8 Seeds: 66-46-5 (59.0%)

Note these results are since the 1996 season, when we first began charting seeds.

Note the disparate results that abound between No. 7 and No. 8 seeds.

Rocky Mountain High

So when is it we can still expect to catch the best possible result when firing up with these with NBA Zig Zags these days, you ask?

Simple. Look to support double-digit underdogs when they are off a SU and ATS loss. They’ve stood the test of time, going 35-19-2 ATS since 1991. That’s a pretty high 64.8% winning percentage when you think about it.

So instead of zigging when you should be zagging, check out the optimum roles outlined above... and enjoy the games.

 

[CNOTES]

Monday's Playoff Essentials
April 18, 2016


Indiana at Toronto, 7:05 PM ET - NBA TV


2015-16 Meetings


Oct 28, 2015 - Indiana 99 at Toronto 106 (Raptors -5.5, Over 200)
Dec 14, 2015 - Toronto 90 at Indiana 106 (Pacers -4.5, Under 200)
Mar 17, 2016 - Toronto 101 at Indiana 94 - OT (Raptors +1.5, Under 203.5)
Apr 8, 2016 - Indiana 98 at Toronto 111 (Raptors +5.5, Over 195)
Apr 16, 2016 - Indiana 100 at Toronto 90 (Pacers +7, Under 195)


The Pacers (46-37 SU, 43-40 ATS) opened action north of the border wanting to put some doubts in the Raptors (56-27 SU, 45-38 ATS) given their recent playoff history. Consider that mission accomplished, as Indiana walked out of Air Canada Centre with a 100-90 Game 1 win that extended Toronto’s playoff losing streak to seven games. Despite wrapping up its third consecutive Atlantic Division title with a franchise-record 56 victories, the Raptors face a must-win situation considering that they’ve already surrendered homecourt advantage and will play the next two in Indianapolis beginning Thursday.


Failing to win here would make life tough on head coach Dwane Casey, who is just 3-6 since joining the Raps after serving as a top assistant on Rick Carlisle’s staff for 2010-11 NBA Champion Dallas. Casey is the franchise’s all-time winningest coach, but there’s disappointment that his reputation as a great defensive mind has been unable to produce results when it matters most. The Wizards averaged 116 points over the last three contests of the 2015 playoffs in closing out Toronto, while the Pacers reached 100 on Saturday, scoring 30 in the fourth quarter and connecting on 11 3-pointers.


Paul George finished with 33 points and team-highs with six assists and four steals, so Casey is going to have to come up with answers to stop him from getting into a similar rhythm in Game 2. Monta Ellis came through with 15 points and five assists, while George Hill scored 10 and helped handle pressure and keep the ball movement. Off the bench, Solomon Hill and rookie Myles Turner, Indiana’s most recent first-round picks, combined for 23 points, seven rebounds and five blocks.


DeMar DeRozan (23.5 points per game) and Kyle Lowry (21.2 ppg), combined to shoot 8-for-32 (25 percent) in Game 1, which included going 1-for-10 from beyond the arc. Toronto shot 4-for-19 from 3-point range. No matter what Casey devises on the defensive end, the Raptors don’t have a prayer if their All-Star backcourt is going to perform as poorly as they did Saturday. Casey commented that it was the most tentative he'd seen his team play on the offensive end this entire season. The Raptors did win the rebounding battle by a 52-38 count, getting a franchise playoff-record 19 from Jonas Valanciunas, who kept possessions alive with 11 offensive boards.


The Raptors won three of four meetings from the Pacers this season, including both in Toronto, but those results are ancient history entering Monday. The Raptors are now 11-12 ATS record as a home favorite of nine points or less, but had won seven consecutive games (5-2 ATS) where they were favored prior to the Game 1 upset. Indiana is now an impressive 7-1 ATS mark this season as an underdog of six points or more. Indiana snapped a five-game losing streak in Toronto that dated back to March 1, 2013. The ‘under’ has prevailed in the last three Pacers games and three of the last four involving the Raptors.




Dallas at Oklahoma City, 8:05 p.m. ET - TNT


2015-16 Meetings


Nov 22, 2015 - Dallas 114 at Oklahoma City 117 (Mavs +3.5, Over 208.5)
Jan 13, 2016 - Dallas 89 at Oklahoma City 108 (Thunder -12.5, Under 207)
Jan 22, 2016 - Oklahoma City 109 at Dallas 106 (Mavs +6.5, Over 208)
Feb 24, 2016 - Oklahoma City 116 at Dallas 103 (Thunder -5.5, Over 215)
Apr 16, 2016 - Dallas 70 at Oklahoma City 108 (Thunder -12, Under 206)


While the Mavericks (42-41 SU, 44-38-1 ATS) knew they were in for a tough time against a full-strength Thunder squad on the road, Saturday’s 108-70 result provided a glaring reminder of just how tough the sledding is for the short-handed visitors. Oklahoma City led wire-to-wire, scoring the first nine points en route to winning the first three quarters by a 93-51 count. OKC took its foot off the gas in the fourth quarter, resting regulars, but dominated at both ends of the floor over the first 36 minutes. In all, the 38-point win was the largest since the team moved to Oklahoma from Seattle and the 33 points surrendered at halftime set a new franchise defensive record.


Dallas shot a franchise playoff record-worst 29.8 percent from the field in the loss and didn’t have one of its primary catalysts, guard J.J. Barea, available for the second half due to a groin injury that is expected to keep him out of this one. He shot just 1-for-6, scoring 2 points in 16 minutes after often leading the team in scoring as one of the driving forces for the team’s playoff push down the stretch.


One of the few advantages Dallas figured to have in this series was with veteran Rick Carlisle pushing buttons against playoff newbie Billy Donovan, but without a healthy team, his hands appear tied. Deron Williams, who has also been nursing a number of ailments over the past few weeks, shot 1-for-9. He's considered doubtful here. Dirk Nowitzki (7-for-15), Justin Anderson (2-for-5) and JaVale McGee (1-for-1) were the only Mavs to shoot even 40 percent from the field. The rest of the team went a combined 15-for-63 (23.8 pct). Besides Barea, David Lee (foot) missed Game 1 and is considered a long shot to participate on Monday. Key forward Chandler Parsons, a versatile starter, was lost to a season-ending knee injury in mid-March.


OKC won the rebounding battle 56-33 and blocked six shots while Dallas swatted none, controlling every aspect of the contest. Bigs Serge Ibaka, Enes Kanter and Steven Adams combined to shoot 16-for-22, feeding off the attention the Mavs had to pay Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, who combined for 47 points, 10 rebounds and 16 assists despite neither playing 30 minutes.


Oklahoma City (56-27 SU, 38-44-1 ATS) is now 5-0 against the Mavericks this season and is 33-9 at home (21-20-1 ATS). The Thunder have gone 19-2 as a double-digit home favorite this season and are now 11-10 ATS. Dallas has been a road underdog 33 times, going 17-15-1 ATS with 11 outright victories, but they’re now 2-5 against the number in the same double-digit road underdog role that awaits it tonight. The ‘under’ is now 44-39 overall for the Thunder, and has prevailed in 26 of their 42 home contests. The ‘under’ has cashed in 8 of the Mavs’ last 10 games.




Houston at Golden State, 10:35 PM EST - TNT


2015-16 Meetings


Oct 30, 2015 – Golden State 112 at Houston 92 (Warriors -1, Under 216.5)
Dec 31, 2015 – Golden State 114 at Houston 110 (Warriors +3.5, Over 211)
Feb 9, 2016 - Houston 110 at Golden State 123 (Rockets +13.5, Over 229)
Apr 16, 2016 - Houston 78 at Golden State 104 (Warriors -13, Under 224.5)


All eyes will be on the right ankle of soon-to-be back-to-back MVP Stephen Curry, who is officially listed as questionable after tweaking it in the second quarter while trying to get back on defense. He had his ankle re-taped at halftime but played less than three second-half minutes due to discomfort and then sat the rest of the way since the game was out of hand. While Curry said post-game that he expects to play, monitor his availability throughout the day to see if he’s undergoing his normal pre-game routines. Obviously, if developments arise that lead to him missing this Game 2, the point spread should be affected by at least 3-to-4 points.


Curry scored 24 points in less than 20 minutes of action on Saturday afternoon, getting his team off to a hot start by knocking down 5-of-7 from 3-point range. The rest of the Warriors were just 5-for-18 from beyond the arc, dominating instead by locking down defensively in holding Houston to just 35.7 percent shooting. Curry made just one 3-pointer less than the entire Rockets team despite taking 15 fewer attempts.


The Rockets committed 24 turnovers in a brutal performance. James Harden was the primary culprit with six and was a team-worst -27 when out on the floor. Dwight Howard turned it over five times, shot 4-for-11 from the free-throw line and was unable to get much done in the post against Andrew Bogut, Festus Ezeli and the undersized Draymond Green. If Houston can’t get much done in the paint, they’re at the mercy of Golden State’s pace and aren’t likely to get the open looks necessary to hang with the NBA’s most efficient offensive team. The Rockets shot 6-for-22 from 3-point range as a group, while Harden missed 12 of his 19 attempts and failed to get to the free-throw line even once.


Golden State (74-9 SU, 46-35-2 ATS) eliminated Houston in last year’s Western Conference finals, so they came into this postseason with plenty of respect for a team that has fallen on hard times. Houston (41-42 SU, 37-46 ATS) finally reached the playoffs on the final night of the regular season after Utah left the door open due to its own collapse, but any thought that it might be able to capitalize on its late momentum and catch the Warriors basking in their newly minted place in NBA regular-season history went out the window during a 33-15 first quarter in which the champs never trailed.


Harden has a 37-point game against Golden State this season but has largely struggled, now shooting just 38 percent from the field against the Warriors through the three games he’s participated in. After coming in second to Curry in this year’s league scoring race, the Rockets star had to come into this series expecting that his team would only go as far as he’d be able to take them by matching Curry shot for shot. The inability to even get to the free-throw line and his struggles against the Dubs’ long wing defenders limited his effectiveness in the series opener, so we’ll see how he’s able to adjust.


Golden State is 2-1 (1-2 ATS) without Curry in the lineup this season, which includes a 114-110 win over Houston when he sat on Dec. 31. The Warriors are now 23-21 ATS as a double-digit favorite. In last year’s postseason, The Rockets are now 1-2 ATS and 0-3 straight up as a double-digit underdog, losing games by an average margin of 19 points.

 

[CNOTES]

NBA ATS


NBA > (529) DETROIT@ (530) CLEVELAND | 2016-04-20 20:05:00 - 2016-04-20 20:05:00
Play ON DETROIT against the spread in All games after a division game
The record is 24 Wins and 7 Losses for the last two seasons (+16.3 units)


NBA > (523) BOSTON@ (524) ATLANTA | 2016-04-19 19:05:00 - 2016-04-19 19:05:00
Play ON BOSTON against the spread in Road games revenging a loss vs opponent
The record is 46 Wins and 20 Losses for the last three seasons (+24 units)


-------------------


NBA MONEYLINE


NBA > (525) MEMPHIS@ (526) SAN ANTONIO | 2016-04-19 21:35:00 - 2016-04-19 21:35:00
Play ON SAN ANTONIO using money line in Home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game
The record is 20 Wins and 1 Losses for the this season (+18.35 units)


NBA > (525) MEMPHIS@ (526) SAN ANTONIO | 2016-04-19 21:35:00 - 2016-04-19 21:35:00
Play ON SAN ANTONIO using money line in Home games when playing against a team with a winning record
The record is 18 Wins and 1 Losses for the this season (+16.35 units)


NBA > (527) CHARLOTTE@ (528) MIAMI | 2016-04-20 19:05:00 - 2016-04-20 19:05:00
Play ON MIAMI using money line in All games in a home game where where the total is between 200 and 204.5 points
The record is 66 Wins and 11 Losses for the since 1992 (+43.7 units)


NBA > (521) HOUSTON@ (522) GOLDEN STATE | 2016-04-18 22:35:00 - 2016-04-18 22:35:00
Play ON GOLDEN STATE using money line in All games after a win by 10 points or more
The record is 58 Wins and 11 Losses for the last two seasons (+34.1 units)


NBA > (519) DALLAS@ (520) OKLAHOMA CITY | 2016-04-18 20:05:00 - 2016-04-18 20:05:00
Play AGAINST DALLAS using money line in All games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season
The record is 15 Wins and 35 Losses for the last two seasons (-26.9 units)


NBA > (523) BOSTON@ (524) ATLANTA | 2016-04-19 19:05:00 - 2016-04-19 19:05:00
Play ON BOSTON using money line in Road games revenging a loss vs opponent
The record is 24 Wins and 19 Losses for the last two seasons (+25.1 units)

NBA > (517) INDIANA@ (518) TORONTO | 2016-04-18 19:05:00 - 2016-04-18 19:05:00
Play ON TORONTO using money line in Home games when playing against a team with a winning record
The record is 17 Wins and 4 Losses for the this season (+12.55 units)


NBA > (519) DALLAS@ (520) OKLAHOMA CITY | 2016-04-18 20:05:00 - 2016-04-18 20:05:00
Play ON DALLAS using money line in All games in a road game where where the total is between 200 and 204.5 points
The record is 14 Wins and 4 Losses for the last two seasons (+13 units)


NBA > (531) PORTLAND@ (532) LA CLIPPERS | 2016-04-20 22:35:00 - 2016-04-20 22:35:00
Play AGAINST PORTLAND using money line in All games in April games
The record is 93 Wins and 126 Losses for the since 1992 (-91.45 units)

NBA > (529) DETROIT@ (530) CLEVELAND | 2016-04-20 20:05:00 - 2016-04-20 20:05:00
Play ON CLEVELAND using money line in All games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season
The record is 36 Wins and 14 Losses for the last two seasons (+19.4 units)


NBA > (517) INDIANA@ (518) TORONTO | 2016-04-18 19:05:00 - 2016-04-18 19:05:00
Play ON TORONTO using money line in All games when playing against a team with a winning record
The record is 26 Wins and 13 Losses for the this season (+13.15 units)


-----------------


NBA FIRST HALF


NBA > (527) CHARLOTTE@ (528) MIAMI | 2016-04-20 19:05:00 - 2016-04-20 19:05:00
Play AGAINST MIAMI ?>in the first halfin Home games after a win by 10 points or more
The record is 9 Wins and 27 Losses for the last three seasons (-20.7 units)


-------------------


NBA TOTALS


NBA > (523) BOSTON@ (524) ATLANTA | 2016-04-19 19:05:00 - 2016-04-19 19:05:00
Play UNDER ATLANTA on the totalin All games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game
The record is 15 Overs and 43 Unders for the this season (+26.5 units)


NBA > (531) PORTLAND@ (532) LA CLIPPERS | 2016-04-20 22:35:00 - 2016-04-20 22:35:00
Play UNDER LA CLIPPERS on the totalin Home games second half of the season
The record is 2 Overs and 15 Unders for the this season (+12.8 units)

NBA > (523) BOSTON@ (524) ATLANTA | 2016-04-19 19:05:00 - 2016-04-19 19:05:00
Play UNDER ATLANTA on the totalin All games versus the first half line in all games
The record is 25 Overs and 57 Unders for the this season (+29.5 units)


NBA > (531) PORTLAND@ (532) LA CLIPPERS | 2016-04-20 22:35:00 - 2016-04-20 22:35:00
Play UNDER LA CLIPPERS on the totalin Home games after scoring 105 points or more
The record is 4 Overs and 18 Unders for the this season (+13.6 units)


NBA > (525) MEMPHIS@ (526) SAN ANTONIO | 2016-04-19 21:35:00 - 2016-04-19 21:35:00
Play UNDER SAN ANTONIO on the totalin All games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game
The record is 38 Overs and 83 Unders for the last two seasons (+41.2 units)


NBA > (525) MEMPHIS@ (526) SAN ANTONIO | 2016-04-19 21:35:00 - 2016-04-19 21:35:00
Play UNDER SAN ANTONIO on the totalin All games after 3 or more consecutive wins
The record is 31 Overs and 73 Unders for the last three seasons (+38.9 units)

NBA > (523) BOSTON@ (524) ATLANTA | 2016-04-19 19:05:00 - 2016-04-19 19:05:00
Play UNDER ATLANTA on the totalin Home games in all playoff games
The record is 12 Overs and 39 Unders for the since 1992 (+25.8 units)


NBA > (517) INDIANA@ (518) TORONTO | 2016-04-18 19:05:00 - 2016-04-18 19:05:00
Play UNDER INDIANA on the totalin All games after 3 or more consecutive wins
The record is 12 Overs and 36 Unders for the last three seasons (+22.8 units)


NBA > (517) INDIANA@ (518) TORONTO | 2016-04-18 19:05:00 - 2016-04-18 19:05:00
Play UNDER INDIANA on the totalin All games as a road underdog of 3.5 to 5 points vs. the 1rst half line
The record is 0 Overs and 10 Unders for the last two seasons (+10 units)


NBA > (531) PORTLAND@ (532) LA CLIPPERS | 2016-04-20 22:35:00 - 2016-04-20 22:35:00
Play UNDER LA CLIPPERS on the totalin All games after scoring 105 points or more
The record is 12 Overs and 28 Unders for the this season (+14.8 units)


NBA > (517) INDIANA@ (518) TORONTO | 2016-04-18 19:05:00 - 2016-04-18 19:05:00
Play OVER TORONTO on the totalin All games after a loss by 10 points or more
The record is 22 Overs and 6 Unders for the last three seasons (+15.4 units)


NBA > (523) BOSTON@ (524) ATLANTA | 2016-04-19 19:05:00 - 2016-04-19 19:05:00
Play UNDER ATLANTA on the totalin Home games in the first round of the playoffs
The record is 8 Overs and 27 Unders for the since 1992 (+18.2 units)

 

[CNOTES]

TOP POWER LINES


Users of our matchup reports are familiar with our Power Line ratings, calculated using both teams' ratings and home field advantage. The Top Power Lines tool offers a way to view and compare current Power Lines in one simple report, as well as the Power Line Edge, where the Power Line differs significantly from the current line.


NBA > (517) INDIANA @ (518) TORONTO | 2016-04-18 19:05:00 - 2016-04-18 19:05:00
Line: INDIANA BTB PowerLine: INDIANA-5
Edge On: INDIANA (2.5)


NBA > (519) DALLAS @ (520) OKLAHOMA CITY | 2016-04-18 20:05:00 - 2016-04-18 20:05:00
Line: OKLAHOMA CITY-13.5 BTB PowerLine: OKLAHOMA CITY-15
Edge On: OKLAHOMA CITY (1.5)


NBA > (521) HOUSTON @ (522) GOLDEN STATE | 2016-04-18 22:35:00 - 2016-04-18 22:35:00
Line: HOUSTON BTB PowerLine: HOUSTON-10
Edge On: HOUSTON (3)


NBA > (523) BOSTON @ (524) ATLANTA | 2016-04-19 19:05:00 - 2016-04-19 19:05:00
Line: ATLANTA-6 BTB PowerLine: ATLANTA-7
Edge On: ATLANTA (1)


NBA > (525) MEMPHIS @ (526) SAN ANTONIO | 2016-04-19 21:35:00 - 2016-04-19 21:35:00
Line: MEMPHIS BTB PowerLine: MEMPHIS-16
Edge On: MEMPHIS (2.5)


NBA > (527) CHARLOTTE @ (528) MIAMI | 2016-04-20 19:05:00 - 2016-04-20 19:05:00
Line: MIAMI-5 BTB PowerLine: MIAMI-7
Edge On: MIAMI (2)


NBA > (529) DETROIT @ (530) CLEVELAND | 2016-04-20 20:05:00 - 2016-04-20 20:05:00
Line: DETROIT BTB PowerLine: DETROIT-7
Edge On: DETROIT (3.5)


NBA > (531) PORTLAND @ (532) LA CLIPPERS | 2016-04-20 22:35:00 - 2016-04-20 22:35:00
Line: LA CLIPPERS-8.5 BTB PowerLine: LA CLIPPERS-10
Edge On: LA CLIPPERS (1.5)

 

[CNOTES]

4/17- Results: 3 - 5
Overall - 8 - 7


MONDAY, APRIL 18


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS




IND at TOR 07:00 PM

IND +7.5


O 195.5




DAL at OKC 08:00 PM


OKC -13.5


U 202.5




HOU at GS 10:30 PM


HOU +13.0


U 217.0

 

[CNOTES]

Armadillo: Tuesday's six-pack


-- Mavericks 85, Thunder 84-- Kevin Durant was 7-33 from floor. 7. for. 33.


-- Warriors 115, Rockets 106-- Stephen Curry didn't even play.


-- Raptors 98, Pacers 87-- Toronto evens this series, 1-1.


-- Washington 6, Philly 1-- Caps are now up 3-nil in series.


-- Wild 5, Dallas Stars 3-- Home side won all three series games.


-- Kings 2, Sharks 1 OT-- LA's first win in six playoff OT games vs San Jose.


**********


Armadillo: Tuesday's List of 13: Nobody asked me, but.........


13) Oklahoma City Thunder is now 3-13 in their last 16 games that were within five points with 5:00 to play.


NBA replay system came up big here, nullifying the Oklahoma City hoop that came just after the buzzer; Felton missed two FTs with 0:07 left, but Dallas survived and now the series heads to Texas tied 1-1.


12) #1 seeds are 45-1 in NBA playoff series if they lead the series, 2-0.


11) Jets are going into the NFL Draft without knowing who its QB will be in the fall, which is obviously a problem. Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Jets haven't been able to get an agreement on a contract- do they really want Geno Smith to be their guy?


10) Kevin McHale is pretty good as a TV cmmentator; couple of people I know say he's a good guy and it came thru over the air Monday. The best analysts make you feel like you're listening to a conversation between him and the play-by-play guy.


9) Parts of Houston had over 10 inches of rain in the last few days; crazy weather.


8) Mississippi State football coach Dan Mullen ran the Boston Marathon Monday; if I drive my car 26 miles, I'm looking for a drive-thru window or a convenience store to get some Cherry Coke. Running 26 miles seems craxy to me.


7) Cubs were -$310 against Colorado Saturday, the heaviest April favorite in over 10 years, when Bronx was -$354 in a game against the Royals.


6) Dwyane Wade hasn't made a 3-pointer since December; he is 7-44 outside the arc for the season, which explains why he doesn't try many anymore. In 2009, Wade was 88-278 (31.7%) behind the arc- his career mark is 28.4%.


5) Big East/Big East will play series of early season games in November to kick off the season: Villanova-Purdue, Wisconsin-Creighton, Seton Hall-Iowa are three of the better games that have been scheduled. St John's-Minnesota will also play.


4) Mike Trout was the 25th pick in the 2009 MLB Draft, one pick after Cardinals' OF Randal Grichuk. Scouting is an inexact scienece.


3) Angels didn't score a first inning run until their 11th game, despite Trout batting third in the batting order.


2) Dustin Pedroia has been on base 48 games in a row against AL East opponents. The all-time record for most consecutive games reaching base is held by Ted Williams, who reached base in an amazing 84 consecutive games.


1) John Madden's only three rules when he coached the Oakland Raiders:
-- Be on time. Pay attention. Play like hell.

 

[CNOTES]

NBA


Tuesday, April 19


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tuesday's NBA playoffs betting preview and odds
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


The Celtics will need Isaiah Thomas to step up to fill the void left behind by injured guard Avery Bradley, who will miss the remainer of the series.


A light NBA schedule Tuesday night will features a pair of Game 2's with the Atlanta Hawks hosting the Boston Celtics and the San Antonio Spurs welcoming the Memphis Grizzlies.


Boston Celtics at Atlanta Hawks (-6, 205.5)


Hawks lead series 1-0


The Atlanta Hawks squandered all of a 19-point lead in Game 1 but recovered late in the fourth quarter and managed to pull out a 102-101 victory. The fourth-seeded Hawks will try to make it two in a row on Tuesday over the fifth-seeded and visiting Boston Celtics, who will be without guard Avery Bradley due to a “significant” hamstring injury suffered late Saturday.


Boston completed its comeback and took an 83-80 lead with 6:48 remaining on Saturday but had Bradley go down seven seconds later on the way back up the court. "Avery has a pretty significant strained hamstring,” Celtics coach Brad Stevens told reporters on Sunday. “I would say he would be doubtful for any of the remainder of the series, certainly very unlikely Tuesday night. As of right now, I would say he's out Tuesday night, but obviously he'll continue to get treatment around the clock and go from there. But I would say very unlikely the rest of the series." The absence of Bradley as a lockdown defender could open the floor even more for Atlanta guard Jeff Teague, who collected 23 points and 12 assists in the opener. Teague sealed the Game 1 win at the free-throw line and formed a potent pick-and-roll combination with center Al Horford.


TV: 7 p.m. ET, TNT, CSN New England (Boston), FSN Southeast (Atlanta)


LINE HISTORY: The Hawks opened as six-point favorites at most books and that number hasn't moved. The total began at 206.5 and has come down a full point to 205.5.

ABOUT THE CELTICS (48-35, 43-39-1 ATS, 39-44 O/U): Boston is touting the fact that it doesn’t have a superstar, and the players were leaning on the “next man up” philosophy after learning the significance of Bradley’s injury. "No change with Avery being out," guard Marcus Smart, who figures to move into the starting lineup, told reporters of his role. "Just have to keep doing what I do. It's just going to be (that) I'm going to have more time to make more effort plays and intensity plays and help my team win. Our little slogan is '(We're) one superstar.' It's us as a team. So this isn't anything new. If Avery was here or not, my responsibilities would be the same." The Celtics could also turn to rookie guards Terry Rozier and R.J. Hunter to cover the extra minutes.


ABOUT THE HAWKS (49-34, 42-40-1 ATS, 38-45 O/U): Atlanta held the Celtics to 23.1 percent shooting in the first half of Game 1 and got the stops it needed down the stretch after squandering the lead. The Hawks were the more aggressive team throughout most of the contest and outscored Boston 52-36 in the paint and attempted 16 more free throws. "Another point of emphasis was physicality," Hawks forward Paul Millsap told reporters. "We weren't as physical last year (in the playoffs). (Saturday) was a good night to set that tone. I felt like, especially in the first half, we did that."


TRENDS:


* Celtics are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 2 days rest.
* Hawks are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
* Under is 9-1 in Celtics last 10 games following a ATS win.
* Under is 4-0 in Hawks last 4 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.






Memphis Grizzlies at San Antonio Spurs (-18.5, 187)


Spurs lead series 1-0


The San Antonio Spurs are supposed to make quick work of Memphis and it sure looked that the way in the series opener as the Grizzlies suffered their largest margin of defeat in franchise postseason history. San Antonio looks to follow up the impressive 106-74 victory with another solid effort when it hosts Memphis in Tuesday's Game 2.


The second-seeded Spurs had 13 steals and nine blocked shots - All-Star small forward Kawhi Leonard had four steals and three blocks - as they pulled away behind their suffocating defense. "Kawhi's a very good defender, and he takes great pride in it," San Antonio coach Gregg Popovich told reporters after Game 1. "He did what he usually does for us. It's important. He sets the tone for us defensively, and (Sunday) was a good example of that." The beleaguered seventh-seeded Grizzlies have lost 11 of their last 12 games and their confidence surely took another hit due to the severe beat down. "We're going to forget it," power forward Zach Randolph said afterward. "Put this one in the backwash and get ready for Tuesday."


TV: 9:30 p.m. ET, TNT, FSN Southeast (Memphis), FSN Southwest (San Antonio)

LINE HISTORY: The betting line for Tuesday's matchup between the Grizzlies and Spurs opened with San Antonio pegged as 18.5-point favorites and the initial total set at 18

ABOUT THE GRIZZLIES (42-41, 42-40-1 ATS, 45-36-2 O/U): Memphis needs strong performances from Randolph to avoid being swept and that didn't occur in the opener as he scored just six points on 3-of-13 shooting. "I got some good looks. I just have to knock them down," Randolph told reporters. "They bring a bunch of people when I get the ball. I just have to stay positive. We know what we're dealing with. We've got a lot of young guys. We just have to be better, including myself." Veteran swingman Vince Carter was the Grizzlies' top offensive performer in Game 1 with 16 points on 6-of-7 shooting in 19 minutes.

ABOUT THE SPURS (68-15, 45-38 ATS, 35-46-2 O/U): Leonard, who was named Defensive Player of the Year on Monday for the second straight season, also excelled on the offensive end with 20 points in Game 1 and veteran center Tim Duncan was strong on the board with 11 rebounds. "We got it going defensively," Duncan told reporters. "We were solid the whole way through and then some shots started falling. We kind of extended that lead - I think just giving ourselves a quarter or two to get ourselves rolling." The huge lead allowed power forward LaMarcus Aldridge (dislocated right pinky finger) to be rested - he had 17 points and 27 minutes - as San Antonio had 12 players see 10 or more minutes of action.

TRENDS:


* Grizzlies are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
* Spurs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 1 days rest.
* Over is 7-1-1 in Grizzlies last 9 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.
* Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
* Grizzlies are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings.