Cnotes National Basketball League Apri's Picks/Trends/News Thru the Playoffs !!

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NBA > (515) MIAMI@ (516) TORONTO | 2016-05-05 20:05:00 - 2016-05-05 20:05:00
Play ON TORONTO using money line in Home games when playing against a team with a winning record
The record is 20 Wins and 4 Losses for the this season (+15.55 units)


NBA > (515) MIAMI@ (516) TORONTO | 2016-05-05 20:05:00 - 2016-05-05 20:05:00
Play AGAINST MIAMI using money line in All games after 3 or more consecutive wins
The record is 2 Wins and 9 Losses for the last two seasons (-14 units)


NBA > (515) MIAMI@ (516) TORONTO | 2016-05-05 20:05:00 - 2016-05-05 20:05:00
Play ON MIAMI using money line in Road games against Atlantic division opponents
The record is 14 Wins and 5 Losses for the last two seasons (+14.55 units)


NBA > (515) MIAMI@ (516) TORONTO | 2016-05-05 20:05:00 - 2016-05-05 20:05:00
Play ON TORONTO using money line in All games when playing against a team with a winning record
The record is 30 Wins and 15 Losses for the this season (+15 units)


------------------


MLB TOTALS


NBA > (515) MIAMI@ (516) TORONTO | 2016-05-05 20:05:00 - 2016-05-05 20:05:00
Play UNDER MIAMI on the totalin Road games revenging a loss vs opponent
The record is 11 Overs and 29 Unders for the last two seasons (+16.9 units)

NBA > (515) MIAMI@ (516) TORONTO | 2016-05-05 20:05:00 - 2016-05-05 20:05:00
Play UNDER MIAMI on the totalin Road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game
The record is 17 Overs and 37 Unders for the last two seasons (+18.3 units)
 

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5/4 - RESULTS: 0 - 2
OVERALL : 48 -54



THURSDAY, MAY 5


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


MIA at TOR 08:00 PM

TOR -4.5


U 188.0
 

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Armadillo: Friday's six-pack


Notes from VegasInsider.com on the Kentucky Derby.......


1) Trojan Nation (50-1)-- Its been 80+ years since a maiden won this race.


3) Creator (10-1)-- One of many closers; has navigated thru traffic before.


4) Mo Tom (20-1)-- Got a lousy ride in the Louisiana Derby.


8) Exaggerator (8-1)-- Ran well in Santa Anita Derby, but on a wet track.


13) Nyquist (3-1)-- Favorite is undefeated in his seven-race career.


17) Mor Spirit (12-1)-- His jockey (Gary Stevens) has won Derby three times.


**********


Armadillo: Friday's List of 13: Random stuff with weekend here.......

13) Playoff hockey is tremendously tremendous; Nashville scored a goal at 2:05am ET to beat San Jose 4-3 in triple OT and even their series 2-2. Great fun; the effort these players put out is just very impressive. Outstanding entertainment.


12) Houston Astros didn't win consecutive games in April; they're first team in 34 years to make the playoffs one year, then not win consecutive games the next April.


11) Indiana Pacers fired Frank Vogel Thursday; Vogel was 250-181 in the regular season, 31-30 in playoff games, and he gets fired? Not unlike Anaheim Ducks firing their coach last week, after an early playoff ouster. It seems terribly unfair.


10) So far in interleague baseball games this season, over is 25-12.


9) Scott Kerkin pointed this out on Twitter: over the last 22 years, the AL team that had the best April record made the playoffs 18 of those 22 years. That team this year is the Chicago White Sox.


8) The outfield at Marlins Park is a little messed up; they had a Beyonce concert there last weekend and re-sodded the outfield afterwards, but there were complaints about the soft dirt on the warning track. Last night was only fourth time the roof was open at Marlins Park-- it rains a lot in the early evening in south Florida.


7) One more Marlins note; Miami opponents are 0-9 this year when they challenge calls via replay; you wonder what umpires hear from the league office when their calls get overturned. Some umpires have to get overturned more than others.


6) Houston Astros starting pitchers have finished six innings in only six of their last 18 games; they need to improve that, or the bullpen will implode. Teams that win are teams whose bullpens need to get less than nine outs per game.


Wednesday night, Astros are up 9-4 in 5th inning with two outs. Seattle has a couple guys on base and AJ Hinch takes Mike Fiers out, not a great show of faith. Maybe it was the right move, but making the bullpen get 13 outs in that game was curious.


5) Bartolo Colon is older than 14 of the 30 major league managers.


4) Rockies 17, Giants 7-- SF gave up 12+ runs in an inning for second time in last six days. Tim Lincecum has a showcase today; will the Giants be interested?


3) Derek Law is a reliever for the Giants; his dad Joe Law pitched in minors for nine years he was in major leagues for four days, but never got into a game, which seems kind of sad. Even if he only got in once, like Moonlight Graham in the movies.


2) My best friend in first grade was a huge hockey fan; he had one of those rod hockey games in his house, the first one I ever saw. After that year, his parents put him in another school and we went our separate ways. Years later, I found out that he became a state trooper and his son was playing as a defenseman in the AHL.


Looked it up on the Internet; his son got to the NHL briefly and played one game for the Sharks. Must be pretty cool to see your name on hockey-reference.com.


1) Judging from what I heard on TV today, Donald Trump is basically a third-party candidate, and the Republicans are sitting the election out. Lot of these Republicans seem like spoiled rich kids who take their ball and go home if they don't get their way.
 

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NBA


Friday, May 6



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Friday's NBA playoffs betting preview and odds
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LaMarcus Aldridge is 33-of-44 shooting in the two games while putting up 38 and 41 points as the Thunder were powerless to slow him down.


The Atlanta Hawks will be looking to rebound from the drubbing they took at the hands of the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 2 in the early game and the Spurs travel to Oklahoma City to continue the best series of the playoffs thus far in the nightcap.


Cleveland Cavaliers at Atlanta Hawks (+3, 199)


Cavaliers lead series 2-0



The Cleveland Cavaliers are fresh off the greatest 3-point shooting performance in NBA history and look to once again dismantle the host Atlanta Hawks in Friday's Game 3 of the Eastern Conference semifinals. Cleveland knocked down a record 25 3-pointers - the most in the regular season or postseason - while rolling to a 123-98 win that represents its 10th consecutive playoff victory over the Hawks.


Shooting guard J.R. Smith made seven 3-pointers en route to 23 points while point guard Kyrie Irving and small forward LeBron James each made four as the Cavaliers turned the arena into their personal shooting gallery. "(It) was a special night for all of us who played," James told reporters afterward. "This league has seen so many great teams, so many great players and great shooters and for us to set an all-time record is truly special." Atlanta was demoralized while facing a 74-38 halftime deficit and shooting guard Kyle Korver was in disbelief over what he was viewing. "When they put those shots down, I don't know if anyone can beat them, to be honest," Korver told reporters. "We were hoping that they'd start missing at some point."


TV: 7 p.m. ET, ESPN

LINE HISTORY:
The Cavaliers opened up as 2.5-point favorite on the road for this Game 3 matchup, but the betting public jumped all over that line and the books were forced to move the Cavs to -3. The total opened at 200 and dropped slightly to 199 by Thursday evening. Check out the complete line history here.


ABOUT THE CAVALIERS (63-25, 41-44-3 ATS, 44-44 O/U): Cleveland made 40 3-pointers over the first two games of the series with a supremely confident Smith leading the way by going 11-of-20 from behind the arc. "Honestly, I feel like that every time I play, to be honest with you," Smith told reporters of his high confidence level. "Whenever I shoot the ball, I have confidence that it's going to go in." The Cavaliers made 18 3-pointers in the first half - eight in the opening quarter, 10 in the second - and 10 different players made at least one.


ABOUT THE HAWKS (52-38, 45-44-1 ATS, 40-50 O/U): Atlanta faces a do-or-die situation in Game 3 and would like to avoid being swept in a playoff series by the Cavaliers for the second straight season. Coach Mike Budenholzer put on the brave face even though his team is reeling and appears to ready to cave. "It's one game," Budenholzer told reporters after the Game 2 trouncing. "They won their two games on their home court. Now we're going home."


TRENDS:


* Cavaliers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Southeast.
* Hawks are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss.
* Over is 5-1 in Cavaliers last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
* Under is 7-1 in Hawks last 8 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
* Cavaliers are 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings.






San Antonio Spurs at Oklahoma City Thunder (+2, 200)


Series tied 1-1



San Antonio power forward LaMarcus Aldridge has been unstoppable in the Western Conference semifinals but all that production has only provided the Spurs with a split. Aldridge and San Antonio look to move ahead in the series with the host Oklahoma City Thunder when the teams resume play in Friday's Game 3.


Aldridge is 33-of-44 shooting in the two games while putting up 38 and 41 points as the Thunder were powerless to slow him down. "One man can't beat you, so we're fine with that," Oklahoma City backup guard Dion Waiters told reporters. "If they want to continue to get out of their offense and throw the ball down there to him, we're fine with that. One guy can't beat us, no matter how much he scores." The Thunder lost the first game of the series by 32 points before putting forth a much better effort in Monday's controversial 98-97 victory - a contest in which the NBA said there were five officiating calls missed in the final 13.5 seconds. "It's over now," Aldridge told reporters the following day. "You can't keep harping on it."


TV: 9:30 p.m. ET, ESPN


LINE HISTORY: This is one where the line history link at the end of this paragraph is well worth clicking. The Thunder opened as 1.5-point favorites at home after returning from San Antonio with a split of the first two games. The public bet the Spurs so hard that the books didn't just drop the line a point or two - they flipped the line and installed the Spurs as 1.5-point favorites on the road. Bettors continued to wager on the Spurs so the books moved their line another half point to -2. The total opened at 199 and gradually made its way up to 200 by Thursday evening. Check out the complete line history here.

ABOUT THE SPURS (72-16, 48-40 ATS, 37-49-2 O/U):
Aldridge has scored nearly 36 percent of San Antonio's points in the series but he wasn't feeling all that great about his Game 2 performance due to the result. "It feels horrible, feels like it was wasted," Aldridge told reporters. "I've never been about trying to get points and not win - I always try to do things to win. If you win, it's totally a different feeling, but losing like that hurts." Small forward Kawhi Leonard is averaging 19.5 points in the series but had a disappointing showing on Monday with 14 points on 7-of-18 shooting.


ABOUT THE THUNDER (60-29, 41-47-1 ATS, 43-46 O/U): After being dominated in the opening game of the series, Oklahoma City started strong and carried the pace for most of Game 2. "Not only the pace, but we were playing smarter and better," power forward Serge Ibaka told reporters. "We were attacking in the fast break when we had to and when we didn't have an opportunity we slowed it down and ran a play." Point guard Russell Westbrook had 29 points and 10 assists in Game 2 after having just 14 points on 5-of-19 shooting in the opener, and small forward Kevin Durant also had a much-improved showing with 28 points on 11-of-19 shooting after being held to 16 on 6-of-15 shooting in Game 1.


TRENDS:


* Spurs are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
* Thunder are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Friday games.
* Under is 13-3 in Spurs last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
* Under is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in Oklahoma City.
* Spurs are 2-11 ATS in the last 13 meetings in Oklahoma City.
 

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NBA
Long Sheet


Friday, May 6



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CLEVELAND (63 - 25) at ATLANTA (52 - 38) - 5/6/2016, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 35-43 ATS (-12.3 Units) as a favorite this season.
ATLANTA is 100-84 ATS (+7.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 24-13 ATS (+9.7 Units) on Friday nights over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 130-98 ATS (+22.2 Units) in home games after a loss by 10 points or more since 1996.
ATLANTA is 57-39 ATS (+14.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 35-23 ATS (+9.7 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 7-23 ATS (-18.3 Units) in the second round of the playoffs since 1996.


Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 10-6 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 10-6 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
11 of 16 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


SAN ANTONIO (72 - 16) at OKLAHOMA CITY (60 - 29) - 5/6/2016, 9:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN ANTONIO is 48-40 ATS (+4.0 Units) in all games this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 47-35 ATS (+8.5 Units) as a favorite this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 29-12 ATS (+15.8 Units) when tied in a playoff series since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 195-136 ATS (+45.4 Units) off a upset loss as a favorite since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 71-55 ATS (+10.5 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 39-47 ATS (-12.7 Units) in all games this season.


Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA CITY is 12-7 against the spread versus SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA CITY is 10-9 straight up against SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
11 of 19 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------








NBA
Short Sheet


Friday, May 6



Cleveland at Atlanta, 7:05 ET
Cleveland: 2-10 ATS after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more
Atlanta: 8-1 ATS in home games after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6


San Antonio at Oklahoma City, 9:35 ET
San Antonio: 32-18 ATS after 1 or more consecutive unders
Oklahoma City: 10-25 ATS off a road win by 3 points or less







NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up


Friday, May 6



Atlanta-Cleveland (C 2-0)
Cavaliers won their last nine games (8-1 vs spread) vs Hawks, covered last three played here, winning by 2-12-8 points. Five of last seven tilts in series went over total. Cleveland made 25-45 on arc in Game 2, have made 40-76 on arc so far in series. Hawks might want to guard them, just an idea. Atlanta won last six home games since 110-108 OT loss April 1 to Cleveland. Hawks were down 74-38 at the half in Game 2; would be nice if they competed just a little bit harder in this game.


Oklahoma City-San Antonio (1-1)
San Antonio won seven of its last 11 games with Oklahoma City, but Spurs lost last two visits to Oklahoma by 19-6 points; Thunder won in Game 2, despite its bench being -55 in 66:00 played. Five of last seven series games stayed under total. Spurs won seven last eight games, taking last three on road- they covered five of their last seven. Aldridge scored 41 in Game 2, but only one other guy had mre than 11-- they need to be more balanced. Thunder was 11-42 on arc in two games at Alamo.


Playoff tally: Favorites vs spread: 26-18, Over: 13-31
Second round: Favorites: 5-3, over: 4-4









NBA


Friday, May 6



------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
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7:00 PM
CLEVELAND vs. ATLANTA
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cleveland's last 7 games when playing Atlanta
Cleveland is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games at home
Atlanta is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland


9:30 PM
SAN ANTONIO vs. OKLAHOMA CITY
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of San Antonio's last 9 games
San Antonio is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oklahoma City's last 5 games when playing San Antonio
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oklahoma City's last 6 games at home
 

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Dunkel


Friday, May 6




Cleveland @ Atlanta



Game 517-518
May 6, 2016 @ 7:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Cleveland
126.948
Atlanta
121.391
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cleveland
by 5 1/2
202
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cleveland
by 2 1/2
198 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Cleveland
(-2 1/2); Over


San Antonio @ Oklahoma City



Game 519-520
May 6, 2016 @ 9:30 pm


Dunkel Rating:
San Antonio
127.412
Oklahoma City
130.959
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oklahoma City
by 3 1/2
204
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oklahoma City
by 1 1/2
200
Dunkel Pick:
Oklahoma City
(-1 1/2); Over
 

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Friday's Tip Sheet
May 5, 2016



**Cleveland at Atlanta**


-- The East semifinals move to Philips Arena in Atlanta for Game 3 on Friday night. Cleveland ventures south with a 2-0 series advantage. The Cavaliers have won nine in a row over the Hawks while going 8-1 ATS. They are 5-0 both SU and ATS in the five head-to-head meetings this season.


-- The Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas opened Cleveland (63-25 straight up, 41-44-3 against the spread) as a 2.5-point road favorite with a total of 200 points. Those number hadn’t budged as of Friday afternoon. The Cavs are -145 on the money line, leaving the Hawks at +125 on the comeback (risk $100 to win $125). Tyron Lue’s squad is a 1.5-point ‘chalk’ for first-half wagers.


-- Cleveland absolutely destroyed Atlanta in Wednesday’s Game 2 by a 123-98 count as a seven-point home favorite. The 221 combined points soared ‘over’ the 196-point total. The Cavs cashed tickets for both first quarter (-2.5, -115) and first-half wagers (-4.5) for a second straight time. With the game tied at 16-16, Lue’s club went on a 19-4 run to go ahead 35-20 heading into the second quarter. That’s when this game turned real ugly, as Cleveland exploded with a flurry of 3-pointers en route to a 74-38 advantage at halftime.


-- Cleveland drained 25 treys in Game 2 to set an all-time NBA record. Ten different players connected from deep led by J.R. Smith’s seven 3-balls. The Cavs shot at a 55.6 percent clip from long range. LeBron James scored 27 points, grabbed four rebounds, dished out five assists and made three steals. Smith scored 23 points, while Kyrie Irving contributed 19 points and six assists compared to merely one turnover.

-- Atlanta (52-38 SU, 45-44-1 ATS) was led by Paul Millsap’s 16 points and 11 rebounds. Jeff Teague had 14 points and six assists. Kris Humphries (12), Mike Muscala (10), Al Horford (10) and Thabo Sefolosha (10) were also in double figures. Atlanta head coach wisely rested all of his starters for the entire fourth quarter.


-- I’ve been perplexed with Budenholzer’s decision in these playoffs to give Muscala the minutes Humphries was getting late in the regular season. Humphries played an average of 14 minutes in the 21 games he played after being acquired by Atlanta, averaging 6.4 points and 3.4 rebounds per game. He has only been given minutes twice in eight postseason games. Granted, they came at garbage time, but Humphries has continued to play well. In Game 2, he produced 12 points, nine rebounds, one assist and one steal in just 15 minutes of playing time. In his only appearance in the Boston series, Humphries finished with eight points, four rebounds and one assists in merely eight minutes of faction.


-- When a team is getting blasted like Atlanta was Wednesday during a seven-game series in the playoffs, you have to show some toughness and pride. Down by 36 at intermission, the game was over. But the mental warfare was still being waged. While the Cavs were gunning for the 3-point record and their bench was basically holding a dance party the entire night, the Hawks didn’t display any physicality whatsoever. You never want to hurt another player but, again, this is the playoffs. It’s completely inexcusable that no Atlanta player didn’t give any hard fouls in the lane in the second half.


-- When meeting with the media afterwards, several Atlanta players, including their two veteran leaders in Millsap and Horford, expressed unhappiness with the way the Cavs went about bombing triples in the final stanza in an effort to break the NBA record. Instead of complaining afterwards, a Hawks’ player should’ve just given a statement foul by knocking a Cavs’ 3-point shooter on his ass. Am I implying a quasi cheap shot? You damn right I am. This is the playoffs. A team has to have a backbone unless it’s resigned to going on vacation sooner rather than later.


-- VegasInsider.com’s Chris David had this take on the side for Game 3: “After watching Atlanta lose the first two games of this series, it’s certainly hard to make a case for them in Game 3. Catching points at home hasn’t happened often for the Hawks this season, only three times. They dropped double digit decisions to the Spurs and Warriors while knocking off the Thunder. I wouldn’t put the Cavaliers in the same class as San Antonio and Golden State but they are steps ahead of Oklahoma City, which makes this number seem fair.”


-- Cleveland owns a 26-17 SU record and a 18-22-3 ATS mark in its road assignments this year.


-- Atlanta has compiled a 30-14 SU record and a 24-20 ATS ledger at home this season. As David noted, the Hawks were home underdogs three times this year, going 1-2 both SU and ATS.


-- The ‘under’ is 50-40 overall for the Hawks, 25-19 in their home outings.


-- Totals have been an overall wash (44-44) for the Cavs this season. The ‘under’ is 23-20 in their road assignments.


-- VI’s David likes the total to stay ‘under’ in Game 3. He explained, I believe the oddsmakers jumped the gun on the total for Game 3 and sent an opener of 200 after we saw Game 2 close at 196. I believe the number will drop back down by tip off and I’m leaning to the ‘under’ based on what we’ve seen from Atlanta at home in the playoffs. Since head coach Mike Budenholzer took over, the Hawks have seen the ‘under’ go 12-2 at home in the postseason and that includes a 3-0 record this season. Only two teams have scored 100 points on Atlanta during this span and even though Cleveland won both of the postseason meetings last year at Philips Arena, it scored 97 and 94 points.”


-- Tip-off is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.


**San Antonio at Oklahoma City**


-- Oklahoma City (60-29 SU, 41-47-1 ATS) bounced back from a blowout loss in Game 1 to capture a 98-97 win as a 7.5-point underdog Monday at AT&T Center. The Thunder hooked up money-line supporters with a stellar +320 payout (paid $320 on $100 wagers). Kevin Durant buried a floater with 33 seconds remaining to put his team up 96-91, but San Antonio answered when LaMarcus Aldridge knocked down a 3-ball off an amazing pass from Tony Parker. With OKC leading by four after Russell Westbrook hit a pair of free throws, Aldridge gave Serge Ibaka a pump fake before taking a 3-pointer. Ibaka inexplicably fouled Aldridge in the act of shooting to provide three shots. Aldridge was true on all three from the charity stripe to slice the deficit to one. On the ensuing inbounds play from halfcourt after a timeout, Dion Waiters struggled to find an open man and just before passing the ball nailed Manu Ginobili with an elbow to clear space for a pass. Nevertheless, the entry to Durant was stolen by Danny Green, who eventually passed to Patty Mills, who missed a 3-pointer from the corner. With two seconds left, the teams battled for the rebound under the basket without a call being made. Alas, though it tried to hand San Antonio the game with a slew of knucklehead plays at crunch time, OKC emerged victorious to knot the series at 1-1.


-- Westbrook produced 29 points, 10 assists, seven rebounds, two steals and one blocked shot in the Game 2 triumph. Durant finished with 28 points, seven boards and four assists, while Ibaka, Enes Kanter and Steven Adams scored 12 points apiece. Adams brought down a game-high 17 rebounds, while Kanter had eight rebounds and three blocked shots.


-- In the losing effort, Aldridge was sensational again with a game-best 41 points to go with eight rebounds, three assists and a pair of rejections. Kawhi Leonard and Ginobili were the only other Spurs in double figures with 14 and 11 points, respectively. Tim Duncan missed a bunch of high-percentage shots and had only two points on 1-of-8 shooting. Parker struggled too, finishing with seven points and six assists.


-- For Friday’s Game 3, the Westgate opened OKC as a 1.5-point favorite early on Tuesday morning. The total was 199 points on the send-out. By lunch, however, the Spurs had moved into the 1.5-point ‘chalk’ role. Then on Wednesday, the Spurs were favored by two and that remained the number as of early Thursday night. The total moved from 199 to 200 on Thursday. The Spurs are -130 on the money line, leaving the Thunder at +110 to win outright (risk $100 to win $110). San Antonio is a one-half point favorite for first-half bets.


-- San Antonio (72-16 SU, 48-40 ATS) smashed OKC in the series opener by winning a 124-92 decision as a 6.5-point home ‘chalk.’ The Spurs led by 33 at halftime and by 39 going into the final stanza. Aldridge was the catalyst with 38 points, while Leonard had 25 points, five rebounds and five assists. Leonard made 10-of-13 shots, while Aldridge hit 18-of-23 attempts from the field. Danny Green chipped in 18 points on 5-of-6 shooting from downtown.


-- In the Game 1 defeat, Ibaka paced the Thunder with a team-best 19 points, but he’s been getting destroyed at the other end by Aldridge for eight consecutive quarters. Westbrook (5-of-19, 14 points) and Durant (6-of-15, 16 points) had mediocre performances in the series opener.


-- OKC won both SU and ATS in a pair of regular-season meetings with San Antonio at home. On March 26, the Thunder cruised to a 111-92 win as a 12.5-point home favorite. Durant posted a double-double with 31 points and 10 rebounds, while Westbrook tallied 29 points, eight assists and six rebounds. We should obviously note that Duncan, Aldridge, Leonard and Parker did not play (rest).


-- On Oct. 28, OKC won a 112-106 decision over the Spurs as a four-point home ‘chalk.’ Westbrook led the way with 33 points and 10 assists, while Leonard countered with 32 points in defeat. San Antonio played all of its players in this encounter.


-- Gregg Popovich’s team owns a 29-14 SU record and a 22-21 ATS mark at home this year.


-- Billy Donovan’s team is 34-10 SU and 21-22-1 ATS at home this season.


-- VI’s David is bullish on the Spurs as short road faves in Game 3. David said, “I was very surprised when I saw the Thunder open as a 1 ½-point favorite for Game 3 but that line flipped in a hurry and it’s the right move in my opinion. It’s hard to ignore the fact that the Spurs went 12-0 off a loss in the regular season in meaningful games when the club put out a full squad. Another solid stat that could have you leaning to San Antonio is the record of the Thunder as underdogs. OKC did cash tickets in Game 2 of this series but it’s just 2-12 as an underdog this season. Also, it should be noted that road favorites have done very well in this year’s postseason, going 10-4 straight up and 8-6 against the spread.”


-- The ‘under’ is 46-43 overall for the Thunder, 27-17 in its home games.


-- The ‘over’ had hit in four consecutive games for the Thunder until Game 2 went ‘under’ the tally.


-- The ‘under’ is 49-37-2 overall for San Antonio, 25-17-1 in its road assignments.


-- The ‘under’ is on an 8-2 run in San Antonio’s last 10 games played at OKC.


-- ESPN will have the telecast at 9:35 p.m. Eastern.
 

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Stephen Curry unlikely to play Game 3
May 5, 2016


OAKLAND, Calif. (AP) Stephen Curry is unlikely to play Saturday for Golden State in Game 3 of the Western Conference semifinals at Portland since he still hasn't practiced on his sprained right knee.


Curry did work on the side while the Warriors practiced Thursday but couldn't yet do any of the scrimmaging that the medical staff and coaches want to see before he is cleared to return.


''It's tough to see him playing Saturday,'' coach Steve Kerr said. ''He's gotten better and better each day.''


In fact, Kerr said ''probably not'' when asked about Curry playing Saturday. Game 4 on Monday is still a conceivable option if Curry keeps making good progress.


''Everything has gone very smoothly. He hasn't had any setbacks,'' Kerr said. ''He's ramping up things in the weight room.''


The Warriors will practice again in Oakland on Friday before flying to Portland in the afternoon. Kerr said that even on a game day when his teammates only have shootaround, Curry could get some two-on-two work with coaches Luke Walton, Jarron Collins and Theo Robertson.


Defending champion Golden State leads the best-of-seven series against Portland 2-0. The Warriors had Wednesday off from practice after winning Game 2 on Tuesday night at Oracle Arena.


Curry returned from an ankle injury only to injure his knee April 24 when he slipped on a wet spot just before halftime of a Game 4 win at Houston in the first round of the playoffs.


The Warriors would probably want to see how Curry comes out of his first practice then have him participate in another before he is game-ready, Kerr said.


''That's what we did in Houston with the ankle. He wanted to play but he hadn't practiced,'' Kerr said. ''We gave him two straight days of three-on-three, five-on-five, and he felt pretty good. So that's why he started out Game 4. We probably need to get through that process. We need to see him in rhythm, cutting, moving and see how he responds the next day as well.''
 

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Damian Lillard gets tested by Warriors
May 5, 2016



PORTLAND, Ore. (AP) First it was a chest cold, then it was a fourth-quarter dry spell. The start of Damian Lillard's playoff series against the Golden State Warriors has been rough.


And as Lillard goes, often the rest of the Trail Blazers follow.


Portland is down 2-0 in its Western Conference semifinal series against the defending NBA champions. And it certainly won't get much easier when the series shifts north Saturday - even though presumptive league MVP Stephen Curry is unlikely to return from a knee injury.


But Lillard and his team have a history of stepping up after getting knocked down. In fact, that's been the theme of their whole season.


''I know the kind of guys I'm running with. Besides that, we've answered the call all season long. We've been in bad positions time and time again, and we've never shied away. We've never not answered the call. I don't see why this time it would be any different,'' he said.


Lillard, who averaged 25.1 points and 6.8 assists during the regular season, scored 25 points in the Blazers' 110-99 loss in Game 2 on Tuesday night, including 17 points in the third quarter. But the Warriors held him scoreless (0-for-3 from the field) in the crucial final period when they came from behind to win, outscoring Portland 34-12. Portland only scored six points over the last 5:21.


With a day off on Wednesday, Lillard let the loss digest.


''After the game I was pretty frustrated by not being able to finish that game. Yesterday I didn't even want to see a basketball,'' he said. ''I wasn't even gonna watch the playoff game until I heard Cleveland was hitting a bunch of 3s. So I wanted to see for myself, but I didn't even want to have nothing to do with basketball after that game.''


In the series opener, Lillard started cold but eventually scored 30 points in a 118-106 loss. The Oakland native admitted later to battling a cold afterward. On Thursday, he said he was healthy.


Lillard made a playoff splash in 2014 when his buzzer-beating 3-pointer against the Rockets sent the Blazers into the second round for the first time in 14 years.


But he was the lone starter left with the Blazers this season after the departures of LaMarcus Aldridge, Nicolas Batum, Robin Lopez and Wesley Matthews. Some expected the Blazers to only win about two dozen games.


Lillard tends to rise when he's the underdog, however. Led by Lillard and backcourt teammate CJ McCollum, a first-year starter, the Blazers overcame a 2-10 stretch in November to wind up the fifth seed in the West.


A two-time All-Star, Lillard was snubbed this year. How did he respond? By dropping 51 points, including nine 3-pointers, in a 137-105 victory over - wait for it - the Golden State Warriors. Lillard shot over Curry at will in that Feb. 19 victory, one of just nine losses for the Warriors in a record-setting 73-win season.


Knowing the Blazers are capable will be key Saturday night.


''We'll have bounce. We came back after 0-2 against the Clippers (in the opening round) and came with a lot of energy in Game 3. We know how important Game 3 is,'' Blazers coach Terry Stotts said. ''Having energy, having bounce, at the Moda Center, with our crowd? That's the least of our concerns.''


Lillard also struggled in the opening two games against the Clippers in the first round. Portland came back to win the next four to win the series, but the Clippers were hurt when their top two scorers, Chris Paul and Blake Griffin, were knocked out with injuries.


The Warriors also get credit for Lillard's struggles after making defensive adjustments on both Lillard and McCollum, particularly the play of Festus Ezeli.


''They are so explosive and they run really good stuff, I mean, it's hard to guard. You have to cover a lot of floor against Portland, and I thought between Festus and Draymond (Green), those guys did a great job of protecting the feed and moving and handling the pick-and-roll on top,'' said Warriors coach Steve Kerr.


Lillard said the Blazers would learn from it.


''It hurts to go back in the locker room after you play so well for so long and you come back in there with the L. But it is a part of growth,'' he said. ''The entire season has been growth for us.''
 

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Will the real Hawks please stand up?
May 5, 2016


The Oklahoma City Thunder responded to their Game 1 thumping. The Atlanta Hawks? Not so much.


How each team shows up for Game 3 of their respective series on Friday night will likely go a long way toward defining just how long these matchups will last. The Thunder host the San Antonio Spurs four days after they evened the series with a tense 98-97 win in San Antonio in Game 2.


The Hawks head home looking to find themselves after back-to-back losses in Cleveland to the Cavaliers.


The Thunder lost Game 1 by 32 points and were thoroughly embarrassed. But Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant got things going for Game 2 and head home looking to mimic that effort.


The Thunder's 32 wins at home in the regular season were tied for fourth-most in the NBA.


''They played great,'' Spurs point guard Tony Parker said. ''It's a great win for them and now it's our job to react. Everybody understands to win a championship you have to win on the road. That's our job now.''


The Hawks were buried by a record-setting shooting performance from the Cavaliers in Game 2. Cleveland hit 25 3-pointers in the game, led by 36 at halftime and breezed to the win. They were 27-14 at home in the regular season, and need to find some serious magic to make this a series.


''If they shoot the ball like that, I don't know if anyone can beat them, to be honest,'' Hawks shooter Kyle Korver said.


A look at the two games on the schedule for Friday night:


---


Cavaliers at Hawks, Cleveland leads 2-0, 7 p.m., ESPN


There was some grumbling from Hawks players after Game 2 about Cleveland continuing to shoot 3-pointers in the fourth quarter when the outcome was no longer in doubt.


Cavaliers coach Tyronn Lue didn't fault his players for taking a shot at history, especially when the Golden State Warriors set the postseason mark with 21 3s made earlier in these playoffs.


''That's something that the players felt like it was within their grasp, they wanted to go for it,'' Lue said on Thursday. ''I mean, records are made to be broken, I don't see anything wrong with it. We didn't do anything malicious.''


There may come a time for the Cavaliers when the 3s just aren't falling with the accuracy that they have in the first two games of this series, and Lue is bracing for that.


''Some nights you might not have it,'' he said. ''We're playing great basketball and there will be some nights where we don't play as well and hopefully we can still have game where we'll be fine.''


---


Spurs at Thunder, Tied 1-1. 9:30 p.m., ESPN


Oklahoma City might be in trouble going forward if it doesn't figure out how to deal with LaMarcus Aldridge. The 6-foot-11 post player exploded for 38 points on 18-for-23 shooting in San Antonio's 124-92 win in Game 1. He followed it up with 41 points on 15 for 21 shooting in OKC's win in Game 2.


The Thunder do not plan to make big changes to their defensive game plan for Game 3.


''The biggest thing is we've got to make it as hard as we can,'' Thunder coach Billy Donovan said. ''Double-team in the right situations, and maybe try and keep him off balance a little bit.''


Aldridge's efficiency so far has not surprised Thunder forward Kevin Durant.


''He's an All-Star player,'' Durant said. ''He's one of the best players in the league. There's a few times where we could have stopped him from scoring and a few times where you've just got to tell him, `Hey, that's a good shot, that's a tough shot.'''


In Game 1, Aldridge's teammates made 33 of 61 shots (.541). In Game 2, the rest of the Spurs made just 25 of 73 shots (.342). The Thunder don't want to overcommit to Aldridge and let the other guys get going.


''You can run down there and start taking them away, and all of a sudden, it's opened up 3s, drives and a lot of other things,'' Donovan said. ''So you've really got to make good decisions of where your help's coming from and when it's coming.''
 

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NBA MONEYLINE


NBA > (517) CLEVELAND@ (518) ATLANTA | 2016-05-06 19:05:00 - 2016-05-06 19:05:00
Play ON CLEVELAND using money line in All games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season
The record is 41 Wins and 14 Losses for the last two seasons (+24.4 units)

NBA > (517) CLEVELAND@ (518) ATLANTA | 2016-05-06 19:05:00 - 2016-05-06 19:05:00
Play ON CLEVELAND using money line in Road games when leading in a playoff series
The record is 18 Wins and 4 Losses for the since 1992 (+16.2 units)


----------------


NBA FIRST HALF


NBA > (517) CLEVELAND@ (518) ATLANTA | 2016-05-06 19:05:00 - 2016-05-06 19:05:00
Play AGAINST ATLANTA ?>in the first halfin All games as an underdog vs. the 1rst half line
The record is 5 Wins and 18 Losses for the this season (-14.8 units)


------------------


NBA TOTALS




NBA > (517) CLEVELAND@ (518) ATLANTA | 2016-05-06 19:05:00 - 2016-05-06 19:05:00
Play UNDER ATLANTA on the totalin All games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game
The record is 16 Overs and 49 Unders for the this season (+31.4 units)


NBA > (517) CLEVELAND@ (518) ATLANTA | 2016-05-06 19:05:00 - 2016-05-06 19:05:00
Play UNDER ATLANTA on the totalin All games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season
The record is 9 Overs and 32 Unders for the this season (+22.1 units)

NBA > (517) CLEVELAND@ (518) ATLANTA | 2016-05-06 19:05:00 - 2016-05-06 19:05:00
Play UNDER ATLANTA on the totalin Home games in all playoff games
The record is 12 Overs and 41 Unders for the since 1992 (+27.8 units)


NBA > (519) SAN ANTONIO@ (520) OKLAHOMA CITY | 2016-05-06 21:35:00 - 2016-05-06 21:35:00
Play UNDER SAN ANTONIO on the totalin Road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game
The record is 28 Overs and 69 Unders for the last three seasons (+38.2 units)


--------------------


TOP POWER LINES


Users of our matchup reports are familiar with our Power Line ratings, calculated using both teams' ratings and home field advantage. The Top Power Lines tool offers a way to view and compare current Power Lines in one simple report, as well as the Power Line Edge, where the Power Line differs significantly from the current line.




NBA > (519) SAN ANTONIO @ (520) OKLAHOMA CITY | 2016-05-06 21:35:00 - 2016-05-06 21:35:00
Line: OKLAHOMA CITY2 BTB PowerLine: OKLAHOMA CITY-1
Edge On: OKLAHOMA CITY (3)
 

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Preview: Cavaliers (57-25) at Hawks (48-34)
Date: May 06, 2016 7:00 PM EDT

The Cleveland Cavaliers attempted the most 3-pointers in the Eastern Conference in the regular season and have simply upped that number to lead all teams in average attempts in the playoffs.


The Cavaliers turned in an astounding long-range effort their last time out and try to take a commanding 3-0 lead in their conference semifinal series Friday night on the road against the Atlanta Hawks.


Cleveland averaged 29.6 attempts from beyond the arc during the season and are hoisting up a league-best 35.7 during the playoffs. The strategy is working - the Cavaliers are the only unbeaten team left in the postseason and shooting an NBA-best 45.3 percent from long range.


Game 2 of this series featured an amazing display of marksmanship as Cleveland set a record with 25 3-pointers in Wednesday's 123-98 rout. J.R. Smith made seven and LeBron James and Kyrie Irving each sank four.


'Tonight was a special night for all of us who played,' James said. 'This league has seen so many great teams, so many great players and great shooters and for us to set an all-time record is truly special.'


The Cavaliers surpassed the previous postseason high of 21 set by the Warriors in 2015 and the regular-season mark of 23, accomplished by two teams. Cleveland attempted 45 3-pointers - one shy of the playoff record set by Golden State last season.


'I don't think we searched out 3s until we heard on the Jumbotron that we tied the record,' said James, who scored 27 points. 'And then we felt like we came this far so we might as well try and break it.'


The Hawks are second in the postseason with 31.6 3-point attempts per game. They have made 22 in this series compared to 40 for the Cavaliers.


'When they put those shots down, I don't know if anyone can beat them, to be honest,' Atlanta's Kyle Korver said. 'We were hoping that they'd start missing at some point.'


Atlanta has lost 10 straight playoff games to Cleveland, and this series is looking alarmingly familiar to the Cavaliers' sweep in last year's conference finals.


Smith has made 11 of 20 attempts from long range, Irving has drained 7 of 10 and James is 6 for 10.


The Cavs led by as many as 18 while shooting 44.6 percent and making 15 of 31 3-pointers in a 104-93 victory in the series opener. Two days later, they shot 47.1 percent overall and led by as many as 41.


'That was overwhelming,' Hawks guard Kent Bazemore said. 'I thought they shot (really well) in Game 1, but that was amazing.'


The defeat was so thorough that seldom-used backup center Mike Muscala, who scored 10 points in 14 minutes, appeared at the postgame news conference with NBA teams required to send at least one player. The Hawks know they are in trouble if Muscala continues to see action in this series.


"We need to get better in a lot of areas, probably starting with our transition defense and all the way through, and execute better offensively to take some pressure off our defense," coach Mike Budenholzer said.


Paul Millsap has totaled a team-high 33 points and 24 rebounds in the series for Atlanta, with Dennis Schroder scoring 32. Jeff Teague has been ineffective, making 5 of 19 shots for 22 points and 10 assists.


The Hawks have a 68-56 advantage in points in the paint in this series. That has been a meaningless statistic given the Cavaliers have scored 54 more points via 3-pointers.




SERIES AT A GLANCE


GAME 1
Hawks at Celtics
Fri, Apr 22 Final 103 to 111
Recaps


GAME 2
Hawks at Celtics
Sun, Apr 24 Final 95 to 104
Recaps


GAME 3
Celtics at Hawks
Tue, Apr 26 Final 83 to 110
Recaps


GAME 4
Hawks at Celtics
Thu, Apr 28 Final 104 to 92
Recaps


GAME 5
Hawks at Cavaliers
Mon, May 2 Final 93 to 104
Recaps


GAME 6
Hawks at Cavaliers
Wed, May 4 Final 98 to 123
Recaps


GAME 7
Cavaliers at Hawks
Fri, May 6 - 7:00PM EDT
 

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Preview: Spurs (67-15) at Thunder (55-27)
Date: May 06, 2016 9:30 PM EDT

The Oklahoma City Thunder survived a frenzied and controversial finish in Game 2 to seize home-court advantage from the San Antonio Spurs.


The Spurs can regain it by earning a rare playoff win in Oklahoma City when the well-rested teams square off again Friday night.


The Thunder nearly blew a four-point lead in the final 15 seconds before holding on for a 98-97 victory Monday, and the NBA ruled the next day that there were five incorrect non-calls in that closing stretch. Oklahoma City's Dion Waiters was part of perhaps the most high-profile one, pushing Manu Ginobili away with his elbow on an inbounds play with 13.5 seconds to go.


The league also stated that Ginobili should have been charged with a delay-of-game violation for stepping on the sideline as he was defending Waiters. Potential fouls from the Spurs' Kawhi Leonard and Patty Mills affected Oklahoma City's inbounds pass, which was stolen away from Kevin Durant by Danny Green.


LaMarcus Aldridge would have received two foul shots if referees had correctly called a foul on Serge Ibaka for grabbing his jersey when Aldridge was trying to rebound Mills' missed 3-pointer.


Aldridge was 10 of 10 from the line Monday and finished with 41 points in San Antonio's first loss in six games this postseason.


"Now it's our job to react," Spurs point guard Tony Parker said. "Everybody on this team understands that to win a championship, you have to win on the road. So that's our job now."


That could prove to be a challenging one as Oklahoma City has won eight of nine at home, the lone loss coming in Game 2 of its opening-round series against Dallas.


The Thunder have won in 11 of 13 at home against San Antonio, including playoffs, and are 5-1 there against the Spurs in two postseason series since relocating from Seattle.


"We have to come into the game like we're down 0-2," Waiters said. "We know that's how they're going to approach the game. We know they're going to come in and do what they do. We have to match their intensity.


"We know it's important to take care of home-court advantage. We have to come in with the mindset of coming in to win and compete, play hard as possible and play smart."


Oklahoma City averaged 111.5 points and 50.3 percent shooting in two home victories over San Antonio this season, but the Spurs' top players sat out a 111-92 defeat March 26.


Kawhi Leonard was dealing with a bruised right quad while Aldridge, Tim Duncan, Ginobili and Parker were given the night off.


Those five will try to get San Antonio off to a better start than in Monday's defeat, when Oklahoma City scored 17 of the first 21 points. San Antonio missed 12 of its first 13 shots and finished at 42.6 percent after connecting at 60.7 in a 124-92 rout in Game 1 on Saturday.


"We have got to be sharp. We have got to be better, have a better start," said Aldridge, who scored 38 points in the series opener. "We have to focus offensively and defensively, just be locked in and all the way around better."


Aldridge, making his first postseason visit to Oklahoma City, was held to 11 points on 4-of-12 shooting in his only game there this season, a 112-106 defeat Oct. 28.


Leonard has totaled 58 points and shot 62.2 percent in his last two road games against the Thunder. His 32 points Oct. 28 tied his career high at the time.


Oklahoma City's Russell Westbrook, who scored a team-best 29 on Monday, averaged 31 and 53.7 percent shooting in the two home games against San Antonio this season.




SERIES AT A GLANCE


GAME 1
Thunder at Spurs
Sat, Apr 30 Final 92 to 124
Recaps


GAME 2
Thunder at Spurs
Mon, May 2 Final 98 to 97
Recaps


GAME 3
Spurs at Thunder
Fri, May 6 - 9:30PM EDT


GAME 4
Spurs at Thunder
Sun, May 8 - 8:00PM EDT
 

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5/5 - Results: 0 - 1 - 1
Overall : 46 - 55



FRIDAY, MAY 6


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


CLE at ATL 07:00 PM


CLE -2.5


U 197.0





SA at OKC 09:30 PM

OKC +2.5


U 200.5
 

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Armadillo: Saturday's six-pack


-- Spurs 100, Thunder 96-- Spurs are 16-4 in series if they have a 2-1 lead.


-- Cavaliers 121, Hawks 108-- Do they really have to play anymore?


-- Thunder 2, Islanders 1 OT-- Tampa Bay wins both games in Brooklyn in OT.


-- Golfer Zac Blair was DQ'd after he used a putter that he bent when he smacked himself in the head with it. No bueno.


-- Marlins 6, Phillies 4-- Miami has won 11 of its last 12 games.


-- KLWheat likes Mohaymen in the Kentucky Derby.


**********


Armadillo: Saturday's List of 13: DD Lohaus handicaps the Kentucky Derby....


First Saturday in May; must be Kentucky Derby Day!


Snuck up on me this year which again proves that the older you get, the faster time flies.


As I write this analysis and give my picks, the weather for Saturday looks gorgeous and should allow for all runners to give their best efforts. It is with that assumption that I make my analysis and selections.




The conversation begins with Nyquist. He has done nothing wrong and has been on quite a run since last year. He has beaten another top contender in this race (Exaggerator) three times! This team has won the Derby (and Preakness) before and Nyquist will likely be favored for the race. He is a logical favorite and his versatile running style makes him very dangerous.


Mohaymen came up short in the much anticipated race with Nyquist in the Florida Derby. Trainer calls it 'a throw out' and this guy looked fantastic in his last workout (46.8). May be a bit too fast to have enough left to handle this group but also could be peaking at the right time; maybe he didn't like losing his last (and first) in Florida and will be extra motivated to turn the tables on Nyquist. A lot to like if you're willing to throw out the last.


Gun Runner, for Steve Asmussen, is a the prototypical 'sharp-looker' from a high octane outfit. Has a steady race tab and been winning quite nicely. He will have to be on his toes for this one but may be ready to step forward. Like the 6F workout; not necessarily the time but the distance; tells me he has some bottom... I would not be surprised if this one makes some noise.


Exaggerator, as mentioned earlier is a top contender but hasn't figured out how to be Nyquist. A prime post position should give him lots of choices. Not sure I like to pick a horse that's been beaten three times by the expected race favorite. He is a hard knocker who gives an honest effort and maybe he just needed to figure things out. I think he's more likely to get a minor award.


Destin has had eight weeks off since his last race; a win in the Tampa Derby. This one has the looks of a runner flying under the radar for Todd Pletcher (if that's possible). Not thrilled with his latest workout, but I wouldn't be shocked if this one shows well on Saturday. This one will offer some value and worth playing underneath top ones.


The Bets:


$20WP Mohaymen: I think this guys turns the table and runs BIG on Saturday.


$10Ex Mohaymen/Nyquist, Gun Runner, Exaggerator, Destin


$5Ex Nyquist, Gun Runner, Exaggerator, Destin/Mohaymen


$1ExBx Nyquist/Gun Runner/Exaggerator/Destin


$2Tri Mohaymen/Nyquist/Gun Runner, Exaggerator, Destin


Total Bets: $118.00
 

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NBA
Short Sheet


Saturday, May 7


Toronto at Miami, 5:05 ET

Toronto: 14-30 ATS after a game with 15 or less assists
Miami: 22-14 ATS after a loss by 6 points or less

Golden State at Portland, 8:35 ET

Golden State: 13-3 ATS off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more
Portland: 42-64 ATS at home after failing to cover in 3 or + consecutive games







NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up


Saturday, May 7


Miami-Toronto (1-1)

Teams split pair of OT games in Ontario, now head south. Miami lost five of last seven games with Toronto, including two of last three played in Miami. Home side won eight of last 11 series games. Six of last seven Miami games stayed under total, as have eight of last ten Raptor games. Lowry is 10-35 from floor in series; Raptors are +27 with Valanciunas on floor, -29 with him on bench. Toronto was -19 with Powell in game in Game 2, which helps explain why he only played 9:00.


Portland-Golden State (GS 2-0)
In 14 quarters since Curry hurt his knee, Warriors are +83, covering all three games without him; they've won eight of last nine vs Portland, and covered 10 of last 12. Blazers are 7-5 in last 12 games, with seven of last ten staying under the total. Golden State won nine of its last 11 games, covered eight of last nine- under is 7-3 in their last ten games. Warriors won three of last four visits to Portland. Over is 7-1 in last eight games between these two teams. Teams haven't played since Tuesday.


Playoff tally: Favorites vs spread: 26-18, Over: 13-31
Second round: Favorites: 7-3, over: 5-5









NBA


Saturday, May 7



------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


5:00 PM
TORONTO vs. MIAMI
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Toronto's last 10 games
Toronto is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami's last 9 games at home
Miami is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home


8:30 PM
GOLDEN STATE vs. PORTLAND
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Golden State's last 6 games when playing on the road against Portland
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Golden State's last 8 games when playing Portland
Portland is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Golden State
Portland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Golden State
 

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NBA
Dunkel


Saturday, May 7




Toronto @ Miami



Game 521-522
May 7, 2016 @ 5:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Toronto
119.939
Miami
127.477
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Miami
by 7 1/2
183
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Miami
by 5
187 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(-5); Under


Golden State @ Portland



Game 523-524
May 7, 2016 @ 8:30 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Golden State
132.748
Portland
127.287
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Golden State
by 5 1/2
218
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Golden State
by 3
211 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Golden State
(-3); Over









NBA
Long Sheet


Saturday, May 7



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TORONTO (61 - 30) at MIAMI (53 - 38) - 5/7/2016, 5:05 PM

Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in all playoff games over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 173-217 ATS (-65.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
TORONTO is 46-61 ATS (-21.1 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 49-41 ATS (+3.9 Units) in all games this season.
MIAMI is 32-23 ATS (+6.7 Units) as a favorite this season.
MIAMI is 40-29 ATS (+8.1 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
MIAMI is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.

Head-to-Head Series History

MIAMI is 7-6 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 7-6 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
7 of 13 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GOLDEN STATE (79 - 10) at PORTLAND (48 - 42) - 5/7/2016, 8:35 PM

Top Trends for this game.
PORTLAND is 54-34 ATS (+16.6 Units) as a home underdog of 3 points or less since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 50-36 ATS (+10.4 Units) in all games this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 39-29 ATS (+7.1 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 210 this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 47-35 ATS (+8.5 Units) as a favorite this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 37-20 ATS (+15.0 Units) in all playoff games since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 60-40 ATS (+16.0 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 74-59 ATS (+9.1 Units) after scoring 105 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 61-46 ATS (+10.4 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 57-38 ATS (+15.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 100-79 ATS (+13.1 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 39-24 ATS (+12.6 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 65-43 ATS (+17.7 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 10-3 against the spread versus PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 10-3 straight up against PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
10 of 13 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
 

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Saturday's Tip Sheet
May 6, 2016



Eastern Conference – Game 3 – Series tied 1-1
Raptors at Heat (-5 ½, 187) – 5:05 PM EST – ESPN



It’s not often that the first two games of an NBA playoff series go past regulation, but that was the case between Toronto and Miami. After the Heat overcame Kyle Lowry’s desperation half-court heave to win Game 1 in overtime, 102-96, the Raptors made another late rally in Game 2 to force overtime once again. But the second time around, Toronto wasn’t going to be denied and found a way to even the series at 1-1 heading down to Miami.


The Raptors erased a six-point deficit in the final four minutes of Game 2 with a 10-0 run, but a late Goran Dragic three-pointer sent things to an extra session once again tied at 86-86. ‘Under’ bettors from Game 1 were dealt a harsh blow as the Heat and Raptors concluded regulation all even at 90-90 on a 192 total thanks to the Lowry three-pointer at the buzzer. In Game 2, the total dropped to 189 and ‘under’ backers were ready to cash out but needed to sweat out overtime as Lowry missed a late free throw to keep the game ‘under’ as Toronto prevailed, 96-92.


Due to Lowry’s free throw that bounced in and out of the rim in the final seconds of overtime, Raptors’ backers who laid the five points were squeezed as Toronto failed to cover the number for the sixth straight game. In spite of the loss, the Heat shot 49% from the field, compared to Toronto knocking down 42% of its attempts from the floor. Lowry and DeMar DeRozan combined to shoot 16-of-48 (33%) from the field, while DeRozan converted only 2-of-8 free throws in spite of shooting 85% from the charity stripe in the regular season.


Dragic carried over his strong performance from Game 7 of the opening round against Charlotte (25 points) to put up 26 points in the Game 1 victory over Toronto and 20 points in Thursday’s Game 2 defeat. Miami didn’t receive much help from its bench in Game 2, as the Heat reserves contributed just 13 points, while Joe Johnson scored 17 points in spite of not hitting a three-pointer in six attempts. Dwyane Wade pulled down six rebounds for the fourth straight game, while pouring in 17 points in the loss.


The Heat covered for the fourth consecutive game, while Erik Spoelstra’s squad improved to 6-3 ATS in the postseason. Miami cashed in three of four opportunities at American Airlines Arena in the first round against Charlotte, as all three victories came by double-digits. After eclipsing the ‘over’ in each of the first two victories against the Hornets, the Heat have gone ‘under’ the total in six of the past seven games with the lone ‘over’ coming in the Game 1 overtime triumph against Toronto.


Miami has seen plenty of success in the playoffs at the AAA, winning 32 of the past 40 postseason home games since 2012. The Raptors have lost six of their last eight road playoff games dating back to 2014, while busting the 100-point mark only once in this span, coming in the Game 3 blowout over the Pacers in the opening round.


Western Conference – Game 3 – Warriors lead 2-0
Warriors (-3 ½, 211 ½) at Blazers – 8:35 PM EST – ABC



Golden State keeps creating new challenges for itself in its title defense and has cleared those hurdles to take a 2-0 series advantage over Portland. Even though Stephen Curry missed his fourth game of the playoffs due to injury, the Warriors overcame a 17-point first half deficit to stun the Blazers in Game 2 with a 110-99 victory. Golden State covered as nine-point favorites thanks to a fourth quarter outburst, as Steve Kerr’s club outscored Portland, 34-12 in the final 12 minutes to improve to 44-2 at Oracle Arena this season.


The only way Portland can compete with Golden State is if the Blazers’ backcourt duo of Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum perform well offensively. In Game 2, Lillard and McCollum combined to score 47 points on 17-of-39 shooting, including six three-pointers made by Lillard. Portland knocked down 13 treys, but shot 14-of-21 from the free throw line, which certainly irked Blazers’ backers to cash tickets in spite of their fourth quarter meltdown.


With Curry sidelined, his “Splash Brother” Klay Thompson stepped up once again following his 37-point effort in Game 1 to score 27 points in Game 2, while being responsible for hitting five of Golden State’s eight three-pointers. Last season’s NBA Finals MVP Andre Iguodala poured in 15 points off the bench, while Draymond Green put together another double-double with 17 points and 14 assists. Shaun Livingston may not compile Curry-like numbers, but the veteran shooting guard has scored at least 12 points in each of his four starts in the reigning MVP’s place, including 14 points in Tuesday’s victory.


Curry is unlikely to play in Game 3 due to the knee injury he suffered in the opening round against Houston. The Warriors split a pair of regular season meetings with the Blazers at the Moda Center, as Portland ripped Golden State on February 19 by a 137-105 count to cash as eight-point underdogs. The Blazers dropped 42 points in the first quarter, while Lillard torched Golden State for 51 points, including nine three-pointers.


Portland has thrived at home in the postseason by winning all three games in the opening round against the Clippers. The Blazers won each of the first home contests against Los Angeles in low-scoring affairs, while holding off the Clippers in the series clinching Game 6 as 9 ½-point favorites, 106-103. Terry Stotts’ squad has won seven of their last 10 home playoff games since 2014, including a 3-0 ATS record as a home ‘dog.


Golden State has won eight of its last 12 road playoff contests, but the Warriors own an 0-4 ATS record as a road favorite in Game 3’s. The only cover in this stretch in a Game 3 came in the Western Conference Finals against Houston last season, but as a 1 ½-point underdog in a 115-80 blowout of the Rockets. The Warriors have cashed the ‘under’ in eight of 12 away postseason games since the beginning of their championship run, while allowing 100 points or less 10 times.
 

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Curry back at practice, unlikely to play
May 6, 2016


OAKLAND, Calif. (AP) Golden State superstar Stephen Curry zipped around the court bouncing from spot to spot during his typical extensive post-practice shooting routine, driving to the basket past his regular practice coach Bruce Fraser.


Curry looked much like his healthy self except for a brace covering his injured right knee.


He returned to practice Friday to test his sprained knee and was strong in his lateral movement though the team didn't scrimmage at all. And the Warriors still considered him doubtful to play in Saturday's Game 3 of the Western Conference semifinals at Portland.


Coach Steve Kerr reiterated that Curry was unlikely to play despite going through part of practice. While ESPN reported from a Kerr radio interview earlier in the day that Curry had been formally ruled out, Kerr said he should have been clearer that he meant ''probably'' out.
 

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Heat, Blazers head home after losses
May 6, 2016


MIAMI (AP) Game 2 became a big missed opportunity for Miami. Same goes for Portland, which now has minimal room for error.


Going home could help ease their disappointments.


Either Toronto or Miami will move within two wins of a trip to the Eastern Conference Finals on Saturday, when the Heat host Game 3 of their knotted-up series. And Golden State will be aiming for a 3-0 lead over Portland, when the defending NBA champions visit the Trail Blazers in another Game 3 later Saturday night.


''We'll have bounce,'' Portland coach Terry Stotts said. ''We came back after 0-2 against the Clippers (in the first round) and came with a lot of energy in Game 3. We know how important Game 3 is.''


The Heat had a fourth-quarter lead in Toronto on Thursday in Game 2, only to see it - and a chance for what would have been a 2-0 lead in the series as it heads back to Miami - disappear in an overtime loss.


Meanwhile, the Trail Blazers were up 11 going into the fourth quarter of Game 2 at Golden State, then got outscored 34-12 in the final 12 minutes as their chance to steal home-court advantage vanished against the Warriors.


''That's the playoffs,'' Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said. ''Things can happen in one game and you'll look totally different another game. Nothing's guaranteed. Momentum doesn't carry over. We've already proven that we can have a great offensive outing and then the next night it might be different. That's the playoffs. That's what happens in competition.''


Toronto got a split in its two home games to start the second round despite ongoing struggles from Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan, an All-Star backcourt that has shot a combined 35 percent from the field and 45 percent from the foul line so far against the Heat. Even though the postseason issues for Toronto's backcourt have been well-chronicled, the Heat cannot expect Lowry and DeRozan to keep missing at this rate.


''I've gotten so many phone calls and texts from people that just care about me in general, fellow NBA players and friends of mine,'' said Lowry, who's the first player in the last 60 years to have nine consecutive games of shooting under 40 percent with 10 or more shot attempts in each contest, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. ''They're supportive.''


Stephen Curry is getting plenty of support as well, and the Warriors are making it easy for the MVP to not rush back from his knee injury.


The sense out of Golden State is that Curry might not be available before Game 4 of the Portland series. If the Warriors take a 3-0 lead, it might buy the league's scoring champion even more time to get healthy.


''He might be a little rusty,'' said Shaun Livingston, who has replaced Curry in Golden State's starting lineup. ''But as far as confidence, that's not going anywhere.''


A look at Saturday's matchups:


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Raptors at Heat, series tied 1-1. 5 p.m., ESPN.


The Heat have held Charlotte and Toronto under 100 points in seven consecutive games now, which would seem to be a strong sign given that Miami has topped 100 points in 18 of its last 19 home games.


Then again, neither the Heat nor the Raptors put on anything that would resemble an offensive showcase in Games 1 or 2.


''If we don't turn the ball over 20-some times, we'll be fine,'' Heat guard Dwyane Wade said. ''Offense is fine. We can't keep giving up 20 turnovers a game. That limits us a lot.''


At some point, fatigue will likely start being a factor - if it isn't one already. Saturday's game will be the fifth in nine days for the Raptors, the eighth in 15 days for the Heat. Lowry has played 89 minutes in the first two games of this series, DeRozan has played 84. For the Heat, Joe Johnson has played 83 and Luol Deng has logged 81.


The bigger issue for Miami is Toronto's biggest player.


Jonas Valanciunas is a 7-foot, 255-pound problem for the Heat. He's shot 68 percent in the two games, averaging 19.5 points and 13 rebounds - at times getting the best of Miami center Hassan Whiteside.


''He's been big,'' DeRozan said. ''You can honestly see who's the dominant big out there when it comes to rebounding and scoring. JV's doing a lot for us. We need him to continue to keep doing it.''


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Warriors at Trail Blazers, Golden State leads series 2-0. 8:30 p.m., ABC.


So much for any chance of Golden State looking ahead to the West finals or seeming vulnerable with Curry limited on game nights to a cheerleading role on the bench.


Even without their MVP, the champs are in control.


Klay Thompson has averaged 32 points for the Warriors so far in the series, but what may be overlooked is that Golden State outrebounded Portland in Games 1 and 2 by a combined 103-79.


''You're talking about a championship team,'' Portland guard Damian Lillard said. ''They didn't win a championship off luck. They do a lot of really good things offensively. They do a lot of really good things defensively. When you have letups and you have slipups, they take advantage of it. ... They see slippage and they go after it.''


That all said, Portland locked down defensively in Game 3 to turn around its first-round series against the Clippers. The challenge only is bigger now.
 

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