Thursday's Diamond Notes
July 7, 2016
Hottest team: Pirates (7-0 last last seven)
Last night’s vanquishing of the Cardinals helped Pittsburgh leapfrog them into second place in the NL Central, extending its winning streak to a season-long seven, the longest such run since winning eight in a row from June 10-18, 2015. The Pirates have outscored opponents 41-18 during this stretch and have yet to be involved in a one-run game. Since they’ve been on the road, every one of the wins have been upsets that have netted a total of +990 for Pittsburgh-backers. After winning the second of a two-game set in Seattle, the Pirates swept a three-game series in Oakland and will look to claim four straight in St. Louis. Tyler Glasnow, a 22-year-old right-hander who has been dominating in the minor leagues, will try and keep the success going in his major-league debut against Cardinals standout Adam Wainwright (7-5, 4.70 ERA), who comes off a win over the Brewers where he pitched seven shutout innings. Glasnow has gone 7-2 with a 1.78 ERA at Triple-A Indianapolis, striking out 113 batters in 96.0 innings. He’s been known to have control issues, so look for the Cardinals to be patient early to see whether his nerves get the best of him. Andrew McCutchen has the most extensive history of any of the Pirates against Wainwright, batting .292 with a homer and 4 RBI in 48 at-bats. Josh Harrison is 7-for-18 (.389) against the big St. Louis righty, while Jordy Mercer has homered off him twice.
Coldest team: Braves (3-10 last 13)
A two-out, two-run home run from Freddy Galvis off closer Arodys Vizcaino denied the Braves a win Philadelphia, where they were swept in the first leg of a seven-game road trip heading into the All-Star break. They’ll spend the next four games in Chicago, visiting the Cubs today before heading to the South Side for a three-game set with the White Sox this weekend. Tonight’s contest is a make-up game from a April 30 rainout and marks the first time the Cubs haven’t had the best record in all of MLB since early in the season’s opening month after San Francisco surpassed them late Wednesday. On the flip side, Atlanta has slipped back behind Minnesota due to this recent slump and sports the worst mark in the league (28-57, .329). The Twins are the only other team who haven’t reached the 30-win mark. Veteran Lucas Harrrell (1-0, 1.50), who won a spot start by pitching six innings of one-run ball against Miami to earn his first major-league victory since August 2013, gets the ball again for the Braves. Despite the disparity between the records for these two teams, Chicago has won just three of five in the season series, but are Thursday's biggest favorite (-270). The Cubs send Jason Hammel (7-5, 3.45) looking to put an end to a skid that has seen them lose 12 of 17. His team has lost his last five starts. Hammel surrendered five homers in four innings against the Mets in his last start. Chicago visits surging Pittsburgh this weekend.
Hottest pitcher: Trevor Bauer (7-2, 3.02 ERA)
The Indians failed to sweep Detroit on Wednesday, surrendering the final dozen runs in a 12-2 rout after grabbing an early lead. Though they’re still on a marvelous run with wins in 16 of 19, the Tribe also got hammered 17-1 on Sunday and may be eagerly anticipating the All-Star break for a breather. They’ll try and get this four-game series against LeBron James’ Yankees by sending Bauer to the mound for his first start since June 27. Although he’s become a fixture in the rotation after opening in the bullpen, Bauer entered last Friday’s 19-inning classic at Toronto in the 15th and pitched five scoreless frames to help Cleveland set a new franchise-record with its 14th consecutive victory. He was skipped the next day, but hasn’t lost a start since May 21, winning four consecutive decisions. He hasn’t surrendered more than two earned runs in his last six appearances, a span of 42.2 innings. Bauer has struck out 40 batters while walking 12 in that span. Bauer is just 1-3 with a 4.78 ERA in five career starts against the Yanks. Brian McCann is the only member of New York’s roster to have homered against him. Ivan Nova (5-5, 5.06) will get the ball for the Bombers, who were blanked by the White Sox on Wednesday to fall to 2-4 entering the final leg of a 10-game road trip.
Coldest pitcher: Chi Chi Gonzalez (0-1, 9.53 ERA)
Although Chicago's Hammel would qualify in this category too, Texas' Gonzalez, who failed to get out of the first inning on Saturday at Minnesota, fits the category nicely. The 24-year-old has walked more batters than he's struck out over 72 career innings and has largely been a massive disappointment after starting his big-league career by giving up just three runs over 30 innings in his first four starts. He'll face a Twins offense that has helped win four of five games by twice cranking out double-digits in runs after acomplishing that just once over the season's first three months. Gonzalez allowed five runs in 5.2 innings in his only appearance in against Minnesota, ending up with a no-decision at Target Field last August. Opposing starter Tyler Duffey (4-6, 5.62) has had 38 runs scored for him over his last three starts.
Biggest UNDER run: Rockies (6-1 last seven)
The Rockies played eight consecutive games that climbed well 'over' the posted total entering their final date in June. In that span, games there were 130 runs scored in games involving baseball’s highest-scoring team, an average of 16.2 per game. Colorado closed last month with a 5-3 loss to Toronto and have been held to one run or fewer in five of its six July games, including last night’s 5-1 loss to the Johnny Cueto-led Giants. Ironically, the Rockies only win and ‘over’ game thus far this month came against Madison Bumgarner. They’ll look to get the offense back on track back in Denver against the visiting Phillies, who have won eight of nine, pulling off sweeps at Arizona and home against Atlanta while taking two of three from Kansas City. Chad Bettis (6-6, 5.85) gets the ball for Colorado and is just 2-2 with a brutal 6.69 ERA at Coors, while Phillies lefty Adam Morgan (1-6, 6.31) is 1-1 with a 5.60 road ERA and will be making his first appearance pitching in Denver’s altitude. The total has been set at 12.
Biggest OVER run: Padres (4-0, last four, 7-1 last eight)
The Diamondbacks have seen the 'over' prevail in their last seven games, but they're off tonight. That bumps up the mighty Padres, who picked up a 13-6 win at Arizona to score a third series victory in four chances. Since June 15, the 'over' has gone 15-4 in games involving San Diego, with factors including inexperienced starters, a slumping bullpen and the sizzling bat of All-Star Wil Myers. Teammates Yangervis Solarte and rookie Ryan Schimpf has gotten into the act, with the latter hitting two home runs in Phoenix to increase his total to four, all coming this month. Ace Drew Pomeranz (7-7, 2.65) may keep this total down since he's allowed just one run in his last 14 innings and held the Dodgers to a single run on three hits over seven frames last time he pitched in L.A. (May 1) The Dodgers are sending Korean righty Hyun-Jin Ryu to the mound for his first start since Game 3 of the 2014 NLDS. Ryu has been out with shoulder trouble since, but has looked promising in rehab, last allowing two runs over six innings at Class-A Rancho Cucamonga. He hit 90 on the radar gun. Ryu is 28-15 with a 3.17 ERA over 56 major-league regular-season starts.
Matchup to watch: Nationals at Mets
Although the Marlins made a big move in trading for Fernando Rodney, these two remain the top dogs in the N.L. East, setting up an important four-game set just before the break. Washington owns the most tenuous division lead in the National League, but will look to stay at least four games up by securing a split in Queens. The Mets were swept in a three-game set in D.C. to close out June, getting outscored 20-6. The teams split six May meetings, which included the Nats winning two of three at Citi Field. There has yet to be a one-run game in any of the nine encounters to date. Oddsmakers see this series opener as practically a pick'em, slightly favoring New York (-110) and 43-year-old Bartolo Colon (7-4, 2.87) at home against 21-year-old rookie Lucas Giolito (0-0, 0.00), who allowed just one hit over four innings in his major-league debut against the Mets on June 28. Colon is 1-1 against the Nats this season.
Betcha didn’t know: A’s ace Rich Hill (8-3, 2.31) returned from a month-long absence due to a groin injury in Saturday’s 4-2 loss to the hot Pirates, but he gave a great account of himself in front of scouts from contenders who are looking at him as a potential reinforcement prior to the trade deadline following a resurgent first half of 2016. The 36-year-old Boston native has already won more games this season than in any other in his 12-year career with the exception of 2007, when he went 11-8 for the Cubs, striking out a career-high 183 batters. The lefty has been fantastic through 12 starts as Oakland’s most successful reclamation project and should yield them a prospect or two prior to the trade deadline. He’ll be facing an Astros team he held to just two runs on two hits on May 1 in a game the A’s lost 2-1 against tonight’s pitcher, Doug Fister (8.5, 3.66). This should arguably be the best pitching matchup of the day and certainly offers the most size. Hill is listed 6’5. Fister is 6-foot-8.
Biggest public favorite: Indians (-160) vs. Yankees
Biggest public underdog: Padres (+117) at Dodgers
Biggest line move: Padres (+138 to +117)at Dodgers