NCAAB
Friday, February 13
Double-digit dogs are the sharpest bet in college hoops conference play
Parity is something that has been preached about in college basketball in recent years. Every time a Cinderella team makes a run deep into the NCAA tournament, the discussion turns to the slowly-narrowing gap between the elite programs in the country and everyone else.
If the way double-digit underdogs have performed in conference play is any indication, we could be in for a mad, mad March. As of Thursday, teams getting 10 or more points versus conference opponents are a collective 192-138-14 ATS – covering the spread 58 percent of the time. Those big underdogs are just 38-306 SU – winning just 11 percent of those game outright – so oddsmakers aren't wrong in who they favor but may be off when it comes to how many points (double-digit dogs went 2-9 SU and 6-5 ATS on Thursday).
According to Peter Childs, an oddsmaker with Sportsbook.ag, it’s the skill level of college basketball – or lack thereof – that is evening the playing field and keeping big dogs live during conference play. Childs believes there’s a serious downward spiral in fundamentals that goes hand-in-hand with the one-and-done trend, with the best players looking to up their draft stock and make the jump to the pros rather than lead their teams to national championships.
“This has been going on for years, with guys leaving early. I think as we see the level of play diminish more and more, it’s going to bring that much more parity which makes double-digit dogs more likely to cover,” Childs tells Covers.
“And for the players that do stay, that are juniors and seniors who aren't household names but are skilled in the fundamentals of the game, they don’t get near the hype of teams like Kentucky. But they have major edges in team cohesion, which helps bigger dogs come in because these veteran players get the most out of their team concepts.”
Childs may be on to something. The conferences which have seen the most double-digit underdogs cover the spread are mainly major conferences, the main destination for those one-and-done talents. The ACC (14-7-2 ATS double-digit dogs in conference play), Big Ten (14-6-1 ATS), and SEC (13-6-0 ATS) are among the league’s that hold the most big underdog value, along with mid-majors the Ohio Valley Conference (13-5-0 ATS) and Colonial Athletic Association (10-2-0 ATS).
The biggest offenders when it comes to favorites not covering double-digit spreads versus conference foes are the Kentucky Wildcats (2-6 ATS), Wisconsin Badgers (2-6-1 ATS), Hofstra Pride (1-5 ATS), Murray State Races (1-5 ATS) and Michigan State Spartans (0-4 ATS).
Scott Kaminsky, sportsbook director at The Greek.com, says that double-digits dogs are very popular with his client base – mainly sharps who bet college basketball for the entire season, unlike the public which only gets involved during the NCAA tournament. Kaminsky rolled through the list of Wednesday night’s double-digit NCAAB spreads and sounded like a broken record for each and every game: “We need the favorite. We need the favorite. We need the favorite...”
“They have bet the dog in every one of those games,” says Kaminsky, noting the action was one-sided on the double-digit dogs. “These big teams today can’t compare to those powerhouse teams of the 60s, 70s, 80s, the UNLV teams of the 90s for (Jerry) Tarkanian and the Duke team’s with (Christian) Laettner. Those teams played together for three to four years. Any of those teams would easily be double-digit favorites against the best teams today.”
On the flip side of this, double-digit favorites in the Pac-12 (13-4-1 ATS) and Big 12 (7-2-1 ATS) have lived up to those lofty spreads in conference competition. The Utah Utes are a perfect 7-0 ATS as double-digit chalk in Pac-12 play and the Arizona Wildcats have gone 4-2 ATS when giving 10 or more points to a conference rival. The Villanova Wildcats are 4-1 ATS as double-digit favorites in the Big East this season.
Out of all 25 conferences in Div. I NCAA basketball, just five have watched double-digit favorites come through more often than not: Atlantic 10, Big 12, Horizon League, Mountain West, and Pac-12. Kaminsky says that those leagues may have a bigger gap between the top two or three teams and the rest of the league, compared to conference like the ACC, Big Ten and SEC.
“It’s noticeable now. You have a lot more upsets today than you did 20 years ago,” he says.
Friday, February 13
Double-digit dogs are the sharpest bet in college hoops conference play
Parity is something that has been preached about in college basketball in recent years. Every time a Cinderella team makes a run deep into the NCAA tournament, the discussion turns to the slowly-narrowing gap between the elite programs in the country and everyone else.
If the way double-digit underdogs have performed in conference play is any indication, we could be in for a mad, mad March. As of Thursday, teams getting 10 or more points versus conference opponents are a collective 192-138-14 ATS – covering the spread 58 percent of the time. Those big underdogs are just 38-306 SU – winning just 11 percent of those game outright – so oddsmakers aren't wrong in who they favor but may be off when it comes to how many points (double-digit dogs went 2-9 SU and 6-5 ATS on Thursday).
According to Peter Childs, an oddsmaker with Sportsbook.ag, it’s the skill level of college basketball – or lack thereof – that is evening the playing field and keeping big dogs live during conference play. Childs believes there’s a serious downward spiral in fundamentals that goes hand-in-hand with the one-and-done trend, with the best players looking to up their draft stock and make the jump to the pros rather than lead their teams to national championships.
“This has been going on for years, with guys leaving early. I think as we see the level of play diminish more and more, it’s going to bring that much more parity which makes double-digit dogs more likely to cover,” Childs tells Covers.
“And for the players that do stay, that are juniors and seniors who aren't household names but are skilled in the fundamentals of the game, they don’t get near the hype of teams like Kentucky. But they have major edges in team cohesion, which helps bigger dogs come in because these veteran players get the most out of their team concepts.”
Childs may be on to something. The conferences which have seen the most double-digit underdogs cover the spread are mainly major conferences, the main destination for those one-and-done talents. The ACC (14-7-2 ATS double-digit dogs in conference play), Big Ten (14-6-1 ATS), and SEC (13-6-0 ATS) are among the league’s that hold the most big underdog value, along with mid-majors the Ohio Valley Conference (13-5-0 ATS) and Colonial Athletic Association (10-2-0 ATS).
The biggest offenders when it comes to favorites not covering double-digit spreads versus conference foes are the Kentucky Wildcats (2-6 ATS), Wisconsin Badgers (2-6-1 ATS), Hofstra Pride (1-5 ATS), Murray State Races (1-5 ATS) and Michigan State Spartans (0-4 ATS).
Scott Kaminsky, sportsbook director at The Greek.com, says that double-digits dogs are very popular with his client base – mainly sharps who bet college basketball for the entire season, unlike the public which only gets involved during the NCAA tournament. Kaminsky rolled through the list of Wednesday night’s double-digit NCAAB spreads and sounded like a broken record for each and every game: “We need the favorite. We need the favorite. We need the favorite...”
“They have bet the dog in every one of those games,” says Kaminsky, noting the action was one-sided on the double-digit dogs. “These big teams today can’t compare to those powerhouse teams of the 60s, 70s, 80s, the UNLV teams of the 90s for (Jerry) Tarkanian and the Duke team’s with (Christian) Laettner. Those teams played together for three to four years. Any of those teams would easily be double-digit favorites against the best teams today.”
On the flip side of this, double-digit favorites in the Pac-12 (13-4-1 ATS) and Big 12 (7-2-1 ATS) have lived up to those lofty spreads in conference competition. The Utah Utes are a perfect 7-0 ATS as double-digit chalk in Pac-12 play and the Arizona Wildcats have gone 4-2 ATS when giving 10 or more points to a conference rival. The Villanova Wildcats are 4-1 ATS as double-digit favorites in the Big East this season.
Out of all 25 conferences in Div. I NCAA basketball, just five have watched double-digit favorites come through more often than not: Atlantic 10, Big 12, Horizon League, Mountain West, and Pac-12. Kaminsky says that those leagues may have a bigger gap between the top two or three teams and the rest of the league, compared to conference like the ACC, Big Ten and SEC.
“It’s noticeable now. You have a lot more upsets today than you did 20 years ago,” he says.