Friday's Tip Sheet
October 14, 2015
**Cincinnati at BYU**
-- This will be the first meeting between these schools. As of Wednesday, most betting shops had BYU (4-2 straight up, 4-2 against the spread) installed as a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 64. The Bearcats were +210 on the money line (risk $100 to win $210).
-- Bronco Mendenall’s club was forced to navigate a brutal September schedule that included three road games against Nebraska, UCLA and Michigan, in addition to a home contest vs. Boise State. BYU beat Nebraska 33-28 thanks to a 42-yard Hail Mary pass from Tanner Mangum to Mitch Mathews on the game’s final play. The season opener in Lincoln was bittersweet, however, as star QB Taysom Hill was lost to a season-ending knee injury. Hill had thrown for 268 yards and one touchdown while also rushing for 72 yards and a pair of scores against the Cornhuskers. Mangum completed 7-of-11 throws in relief for 111 yards.
-- In Week 2 at home vs. Boise State, BYU had to rally to victory late in the fourth quarter again. Trailing 24-14 with 10:22 remaining, Mangum found paydirt on a one-yard plunge to slice the deficit to three. Then with 45 seconds left on fourth down, Mangum found Mitchell Juergens for a 35-yard scoring strike to put the Cougars in the lead. Moments later, Kai Nacua put the game on ice with a 50-yard pick six to lift BYU to a 35-24 triumph as a 2.5-point underdog. Mangum finished with 309 passing yards and two TDs, while RB Adam Hine had 93 rushing yards and one TD on 19 carries.
-- BYU went to UCLA as a 16.5-point underdog in Week 3 and nearly emerged with an upset victory. However, the Bruins were able to capture a 24-23 win by rallying from 10 down in the fourth quarter. Nate Starks’s three-yard TD run for Jim Mora Jr.’s team with 3:21 remaining lifted it into the win column. Hine ran for 149 yards and one TD in the losing effort. Mathews had nine receptions for 84 yards and one TD, while the BYU defense intercepted Josh Rose three times. Harvey Langi had a pair of picks while Nacua added another one to his season total.
-- After three emotional nail-biters, BYU had to get on an airplane again in Week 4. This time, the Cougars had to travel across two time zones and play a noon Eastern game in the Big House. Michigan jumped out to an early lead and cruised to a 31-0 victory. Considering the travel and circumstances surrounding the three previous games, in addition to how well Michigan is playing (its defense has delivered two more shutouts in succession), BYU’s resume and standing in general (at least in my eyes) didn’t take a hit for that lackluster performance.
-- Since the loss at Michigan, BYU has won back-to-back home games over UConn (30-13 as a 14.5-point fave) and East Carolina. The Pirates took the cash last week as a 10-point underdog in the 45-38 defeat. BYU took a 38-21 lead into the final stanza, only to see ECU score 17 straight points to pull even with 4:01 to play. The Cougars pulled out the win thanks to an Algernon Brown nine-yard TD run with 19 ticks left. Mangum completed 24-of-33 passes for 332 yards and two TDs without an interception. Brown, filling in for the injured Hine, rushed 24 times for 134 yards and three TDs. Devon Blackmon, who starter his career at Oregon, pulled down nine receptions for 142 yards. Mathews had four catches for 72 yards and one TD.
-- For the season, Mangum has completed 62.5 percent of his throws for 1,416 yards with a 9/5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Blackmon has a team-best 27 receptions for 342 yards, while Mathews has 30 catches for 339 yards and six TDs. Hine, who has an ankle injury that’ll keep him out of action until early November, has rushed for a team-high 312 yards and two TDs. Brown has rushed for 252 yards and three scores, averaging 5.0 yards per carry.
-- Cincinnati (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) has had ample time to prepare for BYU following its 34-23 win over Miami on Oct. 1 as a 6.5-point home underdog. Redshirt freshman QB Hayden Moore completed 22-of-33 passes for 279 yards and two TDs compared to only one interception. Moore also had a one-yard TD run that put Cincy up for good late in the second quarter. Tion Green and Hosey Williams combined to rush for 170 yards, with Williams getting into the end zone on 29-yard scamper. WR Shaq Washington had eight receptions for 106 yards against the Hurricanes.
-- Since replacing Gunner Kiel when he suffered a scary head injury at Memphis, Moore has played well. He threw for a school-record 557 yards against the Tigers despite missing a good chunk of the first half. Moore had four TD passes at the Liberty Bowl, but he was also intercepted twice. Kiel is healthy now and expected to play Friday, but he may not get the starting nod. Before getting injured, Kiel had connected on 63.1 percent of his passes for 868 yards with a 5/5 TD-INT ratio.
-- Green has run for a team-best 383 yards and three TDs, averaging 5.0 yards per carry. Williams has 351 rushing yards and two TDs, averaging 5.2 YPC. Washington has a team-high 34 receptions for 392 yards and two TDs.
-- This will be the fourth time Cincy has been in the road underdog role during Tommy Tuberville’s three-year tenure. The Bearcats are winless SU and 1-2 ATS in the three such previous situations. They took the cash in a 56-49 loss at Memphis three Thursdays ago.
-- The ‘over’ is 4-1 for Cincy, 2-0 in its road assignments.
-- Totals have been an overall wash for BYU (3-3), but it has seen the ‘over’ hit at a 2-1 clip in its home outings. The Cougars have seen their games average a combined score of 54.0 points per game. This will be the highest total they’ve seen this year. The previous high was 60 last week vs. ECU when the ‘over’ was an easy casher.
-- Kickoff is slated for 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
**Boise State at Utah State**
-- Boise State, Air Force and Utah State are out to 2-0 starts in Mountain West Conference play, sharing the top spot in the Mountain Division. The Broncos and Aggies will do battle in Logan on Friday night at Maverik Stadium, a venue that holds under 26,000 people.
-- As of early Wednesday, most books had Boise St. (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS) listed as a 9.5-point favorite. Several offshore shops had the total at 46.5 points.
-- Utah State (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS) has won consecutive contests vs. Colorado State (33-18) and at Fresno State (56-14) since dropping back-to-back games at Utah (24-14) and at Washington (31-17). The Aggies smashed the Bulldogs last weekend as 13-point road ‘chalk’ thanks to 260 passing yards from Kent Myers, who had one TD pass without an interception. Devante Mays rushed nine times for 92 yards and three TDs, while LaJuan Hunt added 41 rushing yards and a pair of scores on 12 totes. Hunter Sharp made six receptions for 99 yards.
-- Myers threw for 866 yards with a 5/3 TD-INT ratio in five starts under center as a freshman last season. Since taking over for injured senior QB Chuckie Keeton in Week 5 vs. Colorado State, Myers has completed 65.2 percent of his throws for 397 yards and two TDs without an interception.
-- As great a career as Keeton has had, the unfortunate fact is that Utah St. might be better off with Myers under center. Keeton turned this program into a force upon his arrival in 2011. The Aggies had been to one bowl game in school history, a trip to the Humanitarian Bowl in 1997, before Keeton stepped on campus and nearly led Utah State to an upset win at Auburn, then the defending national champion, in his collegiate debut as a true freshman. Keeton started his career with 56 touchdown passes compared to only 13 interceptions, but a pair of major knee injuries have kept him mostly on the sidelines since the middle of the 2013 campaign. He started the first three games of this season before another setback with his knee put him on the shelf until at least late October. Keeton was only completing 54.5 percent of his passes and had a 2/5 TD-INT ratio.
-- Mays has rushed for a team-high 259 yards and three TDs, averaging 7.4 YPC. Devonte Robinson has 16 receptions for 254 yards and one TD, while Sharp has 16 catches for 236 yards and one TD.
-- Since losing at BYU when it allowed a late fourth-quarter lead to get away in Week 2, Boise State has won four in row by margins of 31 points or more. Bryan Harsin’s team is off a 41-10 win at Colorado St. as a 15.5-point road favorite. Brett Rypien completed 22-of-35 passes for 339 yards and one TD with one interception. Jeremy McNichols rushed for 104 yards and two TDs on 17 carries, in addition to catching six balls for 77 yards. Thomas Sperbeck had five receptions for 178 yards and two TDs.
-- Since taking over as the starting QB in Week 4, Rypien has thrived. The true freshman is connecting on 70.2 percent of his throws for 1,057 with a 7/1 TD-INT ratio. McNichols has rushed for a team-best 485 yards and 12 TDs, averaging 4.8 YPC. However, the nation’s leader in TDs (14) is ‘questionable’ against the Aggies with an undisclosed injury. He is the country’s only player to score at least a pair of TDs in each game this season.
-- BSU senior WR Shane Williams-Rhodes has a team-high 35 catches for 287 yards. Sperbeck has 27 receptions for a team-best 526 yards and five TDs. McNichols has 20 catches for 196 yards.
-- BSU ranks fifth in the country in total defense, giving up only 259.5 yards per game. The Broncos are the nation’s second-best defense against the run, allowing just 60.7 yards per contest. They are seventh in the country in scoring defense, giving up only 12.0 PPG.
-- Boise State senior CB Deonte Deayon, a second-team All-MWC selection last year when had six interceptions, is listed as ‘questionable’ due to an undisclosed injury Deayon has made four interceptions so far this season.
-- Boise State owns a 4-3 spread record in seven games as a road favorite since Harsin took over for Chris Petersen.
-- This is only the second time Matt Wells has been a home underdog since taking over for Gary Andersen in 2013. That situation came against these Broncos in ’13 when they came into Logan and won a 34-23 decision and took the cash as six-point road favorites.
-- Utah State has won 11 consecutive home games and hasn’t tasted defeat at Merlin Olsen Field since, you guessed it, the ’13 game vs. BSU.
-- Boise State has won 12 in a row over Utah State in this rivalry between schools separated by 292 miles. The Broncos, who are 7-1-2 ATS in the last 10 head-to-head meetings, won by a 50-19 score as 10-point home ‘chalk’ last year. The ‘over’ is 7-1-1 in the last nine encounters.
-- The ‘under’ is 4-2 overall for BSU, but the ‘over’ is 2-1 in its three road assignments.
-- The ‘over’ is 3-2 overall for Utah St., 1-1 in its home outings. The ‘over’ has been a winner for the Aggies in three consecutive games with their games producing combined scores of 48, 51 and 70 points.
-- Kickoff is scheduled for 9:00 p.m. Eastern on the CBS College Network.
**B.E.'s Bonus Nuggets**
-- Iowa senior DE Drew Ott will miss the rest of the season due to a torn ACL sustained in last week's 29-20 home win over Illinois. Ott had five sacks and three forced fumbles so far this season. He had eight sacks in 2014. Also, the Hawkeyes won't have their best WR, senior Tevaun Smith, for Saturday's game at Northwestern due to a knee injury.
-- Central Michigan has the nation’s best ATS record at 6-0. The only other undefeated team for our purposes is Toledo with its 4-0-1 ATS mark. Florida, Ohio, Notre Dame and Southern Miss are all sporting 5-1 ATS ledgers.
-- On the other end of the spectrum, Michigan State and Central Forida are both 0-6 versus the number. North Texas, Old Dominion and Auburn are 1-5 ATS.
-- Vandy owns a 5-1 spread record in six games as a road underdog during Derek Mason’s tenure. The Commodores are three-point underdogs Saturday at South Carolina.
-- The Westgate SuperBook currently has Ohio State listed as a one-point favorite for its regular-season finale at Michigan. The Buckeyes remain the favorite to win the College Football Playoffs with 5/2 odds. Michigan has seen its odds reduced down to 10/1. Baylor has the second-shortest odds (5/1), followed by Alabama (8/1).
-- Florida is now a three-point favorite for its regular-season finale vs. FSU. The Gators, who will now have to roll with Treon Harris under center following Will Grier’s one-year suspension for testing positive for a PED, have 30/1 odds to win the CFP.
