ACC Report - Week 6
October 9, 2015
2015 ACC STANDINGS
Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under
Boston College 3-2 0-2 2-2-1 1-4
Clemson 4-0 1-0 2-2 1-3
Duke 4-1 2-0 3-2 0-5
Florida State 4-0 2-0 2-2 1-3
Georgia Tech 2-3 0-2 2-3 3-2
Louisville 2-3 1-1 4-1 1-3-1
Miami (Fla.) 3-1 0-0 2-2 2-2
North Carolina 4-1 1-0 3-2 2-3
North Carolina State 4-1 0-1 4-1 2-3
Pittsburgh 3-1 1-0 3-1 2-2
Syracuse 3-1 1-0 3-1 4-0
Virginia 1-3 0-0 1-2-1 3-1
Virginia Tech 2-3 0-1 2-3 4-1
Wake Forest 2-3 0-2 2-3 2-2-1
Duke at Army (CBS Sports Network, 12:00 p.m. ET)
Duke steps back out of conference after a pair of home wins in the ACC. The Blue Devils won a game last weekend without scoring a touchdown, the first time they have done that since 1978. A big reason for their early success this season has been a suffocating defense which ranks fifth in scoring and ninth in total defense. Duke has won 12 of its past 13 against non-conference opponents, with their only loss coming in a 19-10 loss to Northwestern three weeks ago. Army ranks 10th in the FBS with 287.8 rushing yards per game, and the difference whether Duke can cover a near two-touchdown spread will depend on how much success Army's run game can have against Duke's stellar defense, and whether or not Duke's offense can get untracked. Army allows 26.4 points per game, so it's a good chance for the Blue Devils to work out the kinks before getting back into conference play.
Virginia at Pittsburgh (ESPN3, 12:30 p.m. ET)
Virginia hits the road well rested following a bye. The Cavaliers have had two weeks to prepare for this Panthers team, and UVA is 6-2 ATS in their past eight road games against a team with a winning home record. Pittsburgh has managed to cover just once in its past five home games, although they are 12-5-2 ATS in their past 19 against a team with a losing record and 5-2 ATS in their past seven overall. And while these two sides do not have a lengthy history against each other, the favorite is 4-0-1 ATS in the past five meetings and the home team is 3-0-1 ATS in the past four. That bodes well for Pittsburgh, a 10-point favorite, if you believe in trends. But remember, Virginia enters well rested and relatively healthy.
Wake Forest at Boston College (ESPN3, 3:00p.m. ET)
This game opened with Boston College favored by 9 1/2 points, but has dropped two points as of Friday evening. It might be due to a lack of confidence in BC's offense, which has mustered just 24 points over the past three games after posting 100 points in two games against FCS foes to start the season. The Eagles defense has had it on lockdown, though, giving up a total of just 40 points through five outings. The money has been on the Demon Deacons, but that's a risky play considering Wake is 0-5 ATS in its past five road games and 6-17 ATS in the past 23 road games against a team with a winning home record. Of course, BC is 10-24 ATS in the past 34 against teams with a losing road record. The Eagles are an impressive 6-0-1 ATS in the past seven at home against a team with a losing road record, however. The favorite has cashed in six of the past eight in this series with the under going 5-0 in the past five.
Georgia Tech at Clemson (ABC or ESPN2, 3:30 p.m.)
Georgia Tech fired out of the chute in wins against FCS Alcorn State and Tulane, but then had a rude awakening at Notre Dame, a loss at Duke and a setback at home to North Carolina. Suddenly, there are more questions than answers for this Yellow Jackets squad. Now, they head to Death Valley to face a Tigers squad brimming with confidence after hanging on for a win against a Top 10 team from Notre Dame. Will there be a little bit of a letdown for the Tigers this week? That's the only explanation for a line hovering around a touchdown. Clemson is clearly a better team than Georgia Tech right now, and perhaps if the Tigers weren't coming off a big win to face a lesser opponent this week, the line would be in double digits. Georgia has also won six of the past nine meetings, so that likely has a bit to do with it. That includes a sound 28-6 drumming in Atlanta last season for the Ramblin' Wreck. Despite the non-cover last week, Tech is still 5-2 ATS in the past seven conference games, and 9-3 ATS in the past 12 overall. Clemson has covered four of the past five (not last week, though), and they're 0-6 ATS in the past six ACC tilts. While the home team is 5-0 ATS in the past five meetings, the road team is a stellar 15-6 ATS in the past 21 battles.
Syracuse at South Florida (CBS Sports Network, 3:30 p.m.)
Syracuse heads south for a non-conference battle with the Bulls. After a week off to regroup following an impressive showing in a 34-24 loss at home to LSU, the Orange got healthy. They were down to their fifth-string quarterback against LSU, but thankfully get the talented Eric Dungey back this weekend. South Florida has dominated past battles, going 6-2 all-time, although 'Cuse hung on for a 37-36 win in the most recent meeting in Tampa Oct. 27, 2012 when the two sides combined for 1,072 total yards. 'Cuse is 11-5 ATS in the past 16 non-conference tilts, but just 2-7 ATS in the past nine on the road against a team with a losing home record. The Bulls are 7-3-1 ATS in the past 11 against a team with a winning record, but a dismal 6-19-2 ATS in the past 27 at home. And while the trends are a bit stale since these teams haven't faced each other in three years, the favorite is 6-2 ATS in the past eight meetings, with the Orange 2-6 ATS in the past eight and the road team 4-0 ATS in the past four. The over is 4-1-1 in the past six, too. However, the under is 6-for-6 in the past six road tilts for Syracuse, and 23-8-1 in the past 32 for the Bulls, including 5-1 at the Ray Jay.
Miami-Florida at Florida State (ABC - 8:00 p.m.)
This highly-anticipated rivalry lost a little luster when Miami fell for the first time at Cincinnati last week, and Florida State star Dalvin Cook pulled up lame with a hamstring injury in last week's win at Wake Forest. Those are just two of the storylines, as head coach Al Golden looks for a signature win to get the home folks off his back following another disappointing loss for the impatient fanbase. Miami still leads the conference with a plus-9 turnover margin, and they're second in the nation in the category. That will be key if they want to pull the road upset as more than a touchdown underdog. FSU won in Miami last season, 30-26, and they have taken eight of the past 10 straight up. The Hurricanes are 3-8 ATS in the past 11 against a team with a winning record, and 2-7 ATS in their past nine on the road. The Seminoles aren't much better, going 2-6 ATS in the past eight overall, 1-5 ATS in the past six at home and 2-6 in the past eight at home against the 'Canes. The road team has covered seven of the past nine, and the underdog is an impressive 13-3 ATS in the past 16 battles.
ACC teams on bye
Louisville, North Carolina