Friday's Title Tips
December 3, 2014
MAC Championship Preview
NORTHERN ILLINOIS HUSKIES (10-2) vs. BOWLING GREEN FALCONS (7-5)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Northern Illinois -7, Total:62
Opening Line & Total: Northern Illinois-5.5, Total: 59
Northern Illinois attempts to win its third MAC Championship in four years when it takes on Bowling Green Friday evening in Detroit.
The Huskies are playing in this conference title game for the fifth straight season, but after capturing wins in both 2011 and 2012, they entered last year's game with a 12-0 record and these Falcons shocked them with a 47-27 blowout win, racking up 574 yards of offense and intercepting two NIU passes.
This year, the Huskies put together another stellar season and dominated their conference with a 7-1 record SU with their lone loss coming to Central Michigan on Oct. 11 by a score of 34-17 as 8-point favorites at home. They have ripped off six straight wins since that setback, but in conference play they did not do very well for bettors, though, going 3-5 ATS while actually covering three of their past four games. NIU had some close calls down the stretch, winning by an average of just 6.7 PPG in its past three contests while being the underdog in each of the past two games. The school finished off the year with a nice win over Western Michigan in which it outscored the Broncos 31-21 while getting 8.5-points on the road. Northern Illinois scored the final 24 points of the game behind 355 yards of offense and six forced turnovers.
Bowling Green has not been quite as dominant as its counterpart in this one, going 5-3 SU (2-5 ATS) in conference, and made this championship game despite losing its past two games. The Falcons took defeats against Toledo (by a score of 27-20), and then finished the regular season off with a disappointing 41-24 loss to Ball State as 10-point favorites at home. They were able to get 314 yards rushing in the game against the Cardinals but failed to make plays when they needed to in a contest where the teams combined for 939 yards of total offense.
Before last season's MAC Championship Game upset, the Huskies had won the previous three meetings in this series (2-1 ATS) by an average of 17.0 PPG. Trends show that NIU is 11-0 ATS off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog since 1992, while Bowling Green is 12-3 ATS (80%) after playing a game at home over the past three seasons. There are no significant injuries to either roster in this big game.
Northern Illinois has one of the best rushing attacks in the nation as they gain 246.2 YPG on the ground (18th in FBS) while passing for a mere 187.2 YPG (103rd in nation) and have scored 30.6 PPG (55th in FBS). QB Drew Hare (1,879 pass yards, 15 TD, 1 INT) may not have a ton of volume, but is extremely efficient with a 60% completion rate for 7.5 YPA. He attempted just 20.8 passes per game and surpassed 200 yards only twice, but mainly serves as a runner while leading the team with 790 yards on the ground (5.9 YPC) and seven touchdowns.
Joining him in the backfield is HB Cameron Stingily (779 rush yards, 11 TD) who has three performances of 100+ rushing yards, but has averaged a mere 51.3 YPG over the past three games. Stingily rushed for 74 yards on 12 carries (6.2 YPC) in last year's MAC title game versus Bowling Green.
Northern Illinois' one receiver of note is WR Da’Ron Brown (932 rec yards, 6 TD) who has averaged a strong 16.9 yards per catch while hitting the century mark for yards on three separate occasions.
The Huskies defense has been decent while allowing opponents to score 24.2 PPG (45th in nation) on 390.9 total yards per game, and have allowed more than 21 points just once over their past five performances. DB Marlon Moore (86 tackles, 1 INT), LB Rasheen Lemon (81 tackles, 2.5 sacks) and DL Jason Meehan (46 tackles, 7 sacks) have all been impressive on this side of the ball.
The Falcons bring a much more balanced offense to the table in this one while scoring 30.8 PPG (54th in FBS) behind 258.9 passing YPG (42nd in nation) and 180.6 rushing YPG (49th in FBS). QB James Knapke (2,654 pass yards, 12 TD, 10 INT) has struggled with turnovers, as he has thrown a pick in eight of his 11 games while actually going over 300 yards in four different performances. He performed very poorly in the final two contests of the year as the team lost both times and Knapke combined to connect on just 25-of-51 passes (49%) with an average of 105.5 YPG through the air.
HB Travis Greene (803 rush yards, 9 TD) is coming off his best showing of the year when he rushed for 159 yards (11.4 YPC) and a score in the loss to Ball State. He has also been a solid receiver with 180 yards on 24 catches (7.5 avg) and 1 TD. In last year's MAC Championship, Greene racked up 156 total yards with a pair of touchdowns (1 rushing, 1 receiving). Greene has some solid depth behind him, as both HBs Fred Coppet (653 rush yards, 6 TD) and Andre Givens (474 rush yards, 8 TD) have done well. WR Roger Lewis (934 rec yards, 5 TD) has been the biggest threat through the air while the team has plenty of great options with WRs Ryan Burbrink (663 rec yards, 3 TD) and Ronnie Moore (598 rec yards, 5 TD) getting some solid production.
The reason this team isn’t better, is a defense that has allowed 32.5 PPG (101st in nation) and has giving up more than 40 points five times this year. The Falcons have surrendered 494.7 total yards per game, including 565.8 total YPG in six non-home games. LB Gabe Martin (100 tackles, 2 INT, 15 TFL) and DB Nick Johnson (61 tackles, 5 INT) have been bright spots on this side of the ball, but will need do a much better job to win the championship game.
Pac-12 Championship Preview
ARIZONA WILDCATS (10-2) vs. OREGON DUCKS (11-1)
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Oregon -14, Total: 73
Opening Line & Total: Oregon -14.5, Total: 72
No. 2 Oregon looks to get revenge for its one loss on the year when it faces No. 7 Arizona in the Pac-12 Championship game on Friday night.
The Wildcats have looked great all season while losing just two games SU, but is a meager 5-7 ATS on the season. They were able to cover in each of their final two contests though, as they first secured a huge 42-10 win over Utah as 5.5-point underdogs and then earned a trip to this conference championship game with a solid 42-35 victory as 1.5-point favorites at home against in-state rival Arizona State. Arizona was outplayed in nearly every facet of last week's game, as it was outgained 380-333 while each school committed two turnovers.
The Ducks had no trouble getting to their second conference championship game in four years, as they went 8-1 SU in conference play (7-2 ATS) and defeated their opponents by an average of 24.3 PPG over their seven-game winning streak to cap off the season. Their final game came on the road as big 21-point favorites against Oregon State and they had no trouble in that contest, jumping out to a 30-3 halftime lead and cruising to a 47-19 win. They dropped 565 yards of offense on their opponent with 367 of those yards coming through the air.
Arizona has been a thorn in Oregon’s side over the past two seasons in handing them two of their three SU losses during that time. The Wildcats have won by an average of 16.5 PPG in those meetings and were 31-24 victors as 21.5-point underdogs earlier this season when they met in Eugene. They outgained the Ducks 495 to 466, and allowed just 144 yards (3.5 YPC) on the ground.
Bettors should be aware that Arizona is 12-3 ATS (80%) after a home game were both teams score 31 or more points since 1992, while Oregon is 25-5 ATS (83%) after leading its previous two games by 14+ points at the half since 1992 as well. The only significant injury in this game is Arizona RB Terris Jones-Grigsby (ankle), who is listed as questionable. When these schools met in October, Jones-Grisby compiled 210 total yards and a touchdown.
Arizona has put forth a solid offensive effort all season long as it is throwing for 291.4 YPG (18th in nation) and running for 189.8 YPG (44th in FBS) while scoring 36.7 PPG (20th in nation). Freshman QB Anu Solomon (3,424 pass yards, 27 TD, 7 INT) has been out of this world, as he is averaging 39.9 pass attempts per game and has thrown for over 390 yards in three contests. He has been relied on much less in the past three games though, throwing just two touchdowns and averaging 202.7 YPG passing. He’s had some big performances running the ball as well, and has 282 rushing yards (2.6 YPC) and a touchdown on the ground this year. Solomon threw for 287 yards (9.3 YPA), 1 TD and 1 INT in the upset over the Ducks earlier this year.
The real star in the rushing attack is HB Nick Wilson (1,263 rush yards, 15 TD) who has seven performances of 100+ yards this year and rushed for 92 yards and scored 3 total TD in the win at Oregon on Oct. 2. He has scored 8 TD in the past three games and is averaging 163.3 YPG over his past four contests. WR Cayleb Jones (831 rec yards, 8 TD) has been the benefactor of Solomon’s big year, but has put up a mere 32.2 receiving YPG over the past five games. The Wildcats like to spread the ball out, and have six other receivers with 20 or more catches while 10 different players have a touchdown.
The defense has been decent in allowing 25.5 PPG (57th in nation), but also surrenders 434.7 total yards per game. Superstar LB Scooby Wright III (140 tackles, 14 sacks) continues to anchor this unit.
As usual, the Ducks have one of the best offenses in the nation while putting up the nation's fourth-most points (45.9 PPG) as they pass for 307.5 YPG (11th in FBS) and run for 232.0 YPG (24th in nation). QB Marcus Mariota (3,470 yards, 36 TD, 2 INT) is the leading candidate for the Heisman Trophy as he is completing 68.2% of his passes for 10.4 YPA and has averaged 289.1 YPG. His two picks came in back-to-back games against Cal and Stanford and since then, he has thrown 10 TD in three games, including a big performance in the win over Oregon State when he tallied 406 total yards and 6 TD (4 passing, 2 rushing).
Of course one of Mariota's biggest assets is his ability to run the ball, and he has totaled 636 rushing yards (5.9 YPC) and 11 TD on the year. Although he threw the ball well versus Arizona on Oct. 2 with 276 yards (8.6 YPA) and 2 TD and even caught a 26-yard touchdown pass, the Wildcats held Mariota to one yard on nine carries.
HB Royce Freeman (1,185 rush yards, 16 TD) has been huge as a freshman, and has been especially big recently with all five of his 100-yard rushing performances coming in the past seven games where he is averaging 119.8 YPG. WR Byron Marshall (791 rec yards, 5 TD) has been the top option through the air, while the trio of WR Devon Allen (638 rec yards, 6 TD), WR Dwayne Stanford (557 rec yards, 6 TDs) and TE Pharaoh Brown (420 rec yards, 6 TDs) have also been effective.
The defense for this team has also been solid on the year and is giving up 23.3 PPG (32nd in nation), but also 429.6 total yards per game to its opponents. DB Erick Dargan (81 tackles, 5 INT) has been a difference maker for this team in his final collegiate season.
