NFL Week 3 Essentials
September 22, 2017
Not counting the Jags being at "home" in London, there will be at 10 NFL road favorites if the Browns close as the chalk in Indianapolis. Who will follow the Rams' lead in leaving an opposing stadium with a win? Let's get into thought process mode in handicapping Week 3's offerings::
Sunday, Sept. 10
Baltimore (-4/40) vs. Jacksonville: The Ravens have started off exceptionally well, leading the AFC in fewest points allowed (10) and ranking second behind the Raiders in the entire league with a margin of victory of 17 points per game. The catch is that they've played a Bengals team that has scored nine points through two games and a Browns teams led by rookie DeShone Kizer, who was fighting off a migraine in addition to inexperience. The Jaguars aren't exactly the "Greatest Show on Turf," but by comparison, they'll at least be a step up in class due to the presence of rookie RB Leonard Fournette. He's helped create opportunities for Blake Bortles due to consistently facing eight men in the box, and there's little doubt he'll face more of that from Baltimore. Bortles has been dreadful against the blitz and is facing a defense that has already forced 10 turnovers (8 INTs), but he's had success in London before and will hope to improve enough to remain Jacksonville's starter.
The Ravens are set to ride Buck Allen at running back with starter Terrance West dealing with a leg tissue issue, but will have to succeed without their best offensive player going forward since guard Marshal Yanda (ankle) is out for the year. Baltimore's defensive line could also be without run-stopping DT Brandon Williams, who left last week's game with a foot injury that's kept him from practicing this week, which could be a big boost for Fournette. The Jags have won at Wembley Stadium each of the past two seasons and have seen WR Allen Hurns make big plays both times, earning him the moniker "Mr. London." If Bortles can throw it accurately, we might see the Ravens stuck in their first competitive game.
Cleveland (-1/41) at Indianapolis: The Colts are a home underdog entering Friday, so if the line closes that way, we'll see Baltimore favored for the first time since Week 14 of 2015, when they were favored against the 49ers and won by two touchdowns. This will be the first time Cleveland will be favored on someone else's field since a 2014 loss in Jacksonville, and accoridng to Bookmaker.eu oddsmaker Scott Cooley, Indianapolis currently ranks only ahead of the Jets in their power ratings.
"Obviously the big story is the Browns being road favorites. This is only possible because of Andrew Luck being out. If he were playing, the Colts would be 6-to-7-point chalk. And the sharps like Indy as we’ve moved the line down 1.5 points."
There's not a lot to like on either side as far as I'm concerned. Top corner Vontae Davis is still limited, as are arguably the team's second and third-best defensive backs, safety Darius Butler and CB Quincy Wilson. Center Ryan Kelly is also unlikely to return here, so the offensive line should continue being a trouble spot. The Browns will look to take advantage via an improved-looking defense that could finally include No. 1 pick Myles Garrett, who is finally out of his walking boot and could debut. Kiser should be back from his migraine issue, but won't have WR Corey Coleman available for at least six weeks after breaking his hand. Rashard Higgins was targeted 11 times last week and already has more receptions than he had his entire rookie season, making him a breakout candidate here. If the Browns are going to pull off this win, he and versatile back Duke Johnson will have to help Kiser get comfortable on the road.
Pittsburgh (-7.5/44) at Chicago: The Steelers handled business against the Vikings last week, taking advantage of Case Keenum stepping in on short notice for an injured Sam Bradford. They failed to cover in Week 1 in Cleveland, so the challenge here will be to avoid allowing an inferior team to hang around regardless of the venue. It's likely that relentless DE Stephon Tuitt will return from a bicep injury, joining the disruptive Cam Heyward up front in potentially wreaking havoc.
Chicago's offensive line is filled with question marks with Josh Sitton nursing a rib injury and not practicing all week entering Friday. Backup Tom Compton is questionable with a hip injury, but guard Kyle Long should get in there for the first time. They may not be blocking for top RB Jordan Howard, who left last week's loss with his shoulder in a sling. Rookie Tarik Cohen could play a major role here as a result. The Bears will have Markus Wheaton (finger) on board against his former team, while CB Prince Amukamara is also set to make his season debut, overcoming an ankle sprain. After nearly knocking off the Falcons at home in Week 1, the Bears hope Mike Glennon will have a chance to engineer another upset bid to keep the fan base from continuing to clamor for No. 2 pick Mitch Trubisky, who they rightfully don't want to expose behind an o-line that isn't nearly as cohesive as they'll be a month from now.
Miami (-6/43) at N.Y. Jets: Only the Colts have dropped to 0-2 more soundly than the Jets, which is partially by design since they're shooting for potential franchise QB Sam Darnold and have assembled a roster capable of losing them all in order to secure the services of USC's passer. An offense filled mostly with no-names that is being run by veteran Josh McCown has moved it some, but now adds the pressure of playing in front of a fan base sure to turn on this group since booing is therapeutic. The Dolphins have won four of five at Met Life Stadium, winning three of the games by 20 or more points.
Jay Cutler was saved from suffering a loss in his debut with the 'Phins by a missed field goal from San Diego's Younghoe Koo, and looked himself, making some unbelievable throws while mixing in some brutal ones. Both RB Jay Ajayi and WR Jarvis Landry will be in the mix alongside him, so we'll see how he fares against a Jets defense that gave up six touchdowns in Oakland last weekend. Standout defensive linemen Muhammad Wilkerson and Leonard Williams enter this one at less than 100 percent.
Denver (-3/40) at Buffalo: Earlier this week, Bookmaker.eu's Toomey stated that his outfit had the most liability on the Broncos due to smart and square money aligning with more than 85 percent of the handle on the road favorite. Although they're off to a perfect start after wins against the Chargers and Cowboys, this will be the first trip to the East coast that they're forced to take. They've fared well on the road over the past few seasons and have executed well under first-year head coach Vance Joseph, looking quite effective in all three phases.
The Bills won their home opener in New York and had a chance to defeat the Panthers in a 9-3 loss in Charlotte, so we'll be able to see how competitive they can truly be over the next few weeks since this contest is followed by a visit to Atlanta. Tackle Cordy Glenn appeared in practice on Thursday after leaving the Carolina loss with an ankle injury, but if he's unable to play, rookie Dion Dawkins would have to start with Seantrel Henderson suspended another month. Buffalo's defensive line is also ailing, with Marcell Dareus' status chief among those up in the air.
Houston at New England (-14/44): Bill Belichick has had no mercy in trouncing former assistant Bill O'Brien in their three meetings as head coaches. In fairness, he's had Tom Brady while the Texans have had Brock Osweiler and Brian Hoyer, but the combined margin in the wins is 88-22. We'll see if Desean Watson has any more luck than his predecessors, but Belichick is 16-5 against rookies since taking over the Pats. Still, he's lost to Mark Sanchez, Geno Smith and Colt McCoy, so nothing is impossible, especially with Watson's mobility an asset.
Rob Gronkowski (groin) and Danny Amendola (limited) should be available to help Tom Brady move it against a stout Texans defense, but left tackle Marcus Cannon and RB Rex Burkhead are question marks. Linebacker Dont'a Hightower is likely to return to bolster a defense that has left much to be desired through two weeks and needs to show out here to inspire any confidence that they'll be able to get it together. Houston has injuries on the offensive line, at receiver and tight end, in the defensive backfield and through suspended linebacker Brian Cushing, so the timing of playing the defending champs in their house isn't ideal. They do have J.J. Watt in place despite a finger injury, and missed him in the AFC Divisional playoff loss back in mid-January.
New Orleans at Carolina (-6/47): Cam Newton has been limited in practice this week after getting beat up by the Buffalo defense, which doesn't bode well for him improving on the accuracy that has eluded him. He'll play, but has to find a way to move the ball through the air without his security blanket since TE Greg Olson (foot) has been lost for the season.
Top WR Kelvin Benjamin is expected to play despite an ugly-looking knee injury, but only practiced late in the week, so don't expect an offense that produced a 9-point outing at home to be significantly more productive, even though they're facing a Saints team that has surrendered an average of 32.5 points in getting lit up by Bradford and Brady. Drew Brees is working behind a depleted offensive line missing tackles Zach Strief (knee) and Terron Armstead (shoulder). The Panthers' defense could have a field day and make life much easier for Cam and Co.
Tampa Bay (-2.5/39.5) at Minnesota: Sam Bradford (knee) felt he couldn't do what he needed to do last Sunday and was ruled out on Friday. Between injections and treatment, he was thought to have a shot at playing, but books took the game off the board until a clear decision was made. Given how they treated Keenum's insertion last week, moving the line another three points, it's no surprise that the Bucs are now favored in Minneapolis. Keenum does get the benefit of more snaps in practice and a better frame of mind since he'll be the man under center, so he should be better prepared than he was in Pittsburgh. That may only go so far.
Tampa's defense took control in last week's win over Chicago, forcing turnovers and blanking the Bears into the fourth quarter. Offensively, Jameis Winston will have to be cautious against a defense that makes a living of taking advantage of miscues and comes in healthy. Key Tampa Bay defenders Gerald McCoy, Kwon Alexander, Chris Baker and Jacquies Smith all suffered through issues that kept them out of practice. A flu bug went through the team's facilities.
Atlanta (-3/50) at Detroit: This is the sole matchup featuring undefeated teams, and since Carolina is the only other NFC team with them in that boat, the winner here will get a nice leg up in the conference race. The Falcons barely survived in Chicago and dominated a Green Bay team missing a lot of key personnel, so this will be a good test on the road. Atlanta's loaded offense will need to push tempo since defensive leader Vic Beasley has been sidelined for a few weeks by a hamstring injury.
The Lions lost impressive rookie LB Jarrod Davis to a concussion and may also be without center Travis Swanson, which would hurt an already vulnerable offensive line. Matthew Stafford has done a great job using his legs and spreading the ball around to produce this 2-0 start, so watching him try to keep Matt Ryan from leaving his house with another win makes this one a must-watch. Both QBs are top-3 picks who have met three times but haven't squared off since 2014, when Detroit snapped a three-game losing streak in the series by edging the Falcons 22-21. Ryan won the first two meetings by a combined margin of 54-34. The under has hit in each of their clashes.
N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia (-6/43): Although both of these NFC rivals play in unforgiving locales, one city was far happier with their football team than the other following Week 2 losses. The sky was falling, perhaps rightfully, following the Giants' brutal loss to the Lions due to a horrible showing from the offensive line, a defense that doesn't look as imposing as was expected and brutal play-calling. It might be best that Ben McAdoo's team gets to play this one on the road, where Eagles Doug Pederson is looking forward to seeing his team play with a homefield edge for the first time this season. The Chiefs held off Philly last weekend in a game that was up for grabs in the fourth quarter, so the Eagles are encouraged that this can be a big year since the rest of the division is off to a shaky start. While there are major issues in the secondary that have been compounded by injuries and they've yet to establish a running game, veteran receivers Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith can help Carson Wentz take another step forward.
New York has to hope Odell Beckham, Jr. getting healthier will do the same for Eli Manning, since the Giants have allowed eight sacks this season, tied for third-most in the NFL. New York has scored fewer than 20 points in each of the last eight games and rank last in the NFC in averaging 6.5 this season, an oft-recited stat that had McAdoo not ruling out surrendering play-calling duties to OC Mike Sullivan. Orleans Darkwa could get more carries in place of the ineffective Paul Perkins. Defensively, they'll be without MLB B.J. Goodson, so undrafted rookie Calvin Munson, should start. The Giants have lost six of eight in Philadelphia but are treating this one as if their season is on the line.
Seattle at Tennessee (-2.5/42): The Seahawks hope to avoid an 0-2 start on the road as an underdog against the Titans. There were a few eyebrows raised when this spread was released, but the offensive line issues that have derailed a few other teams have held Seattle back substantially.
The Titans are capable on both sides of the ball and have the personnel to continue making things difficult for Russell Wilson, who has led one touchdown drive while running for his life and buying his receivers time in the face of immediate pressure. Jimmy Graham missed practice time and is operating at less than 100 percent, so count on a defense that Richard Sherman already says knows it has to carry the brunt of the burden if the Seahawks are going to be successful to fly around in looking to muzzle Marcus Mariota.
The fact both teams, favored to win their respective divisions, come in 1-1, makes this perhaps Week 3's most compelling game. DeMarco Murray has been nursing a hamstring injury, but former Heisman Trophy winner Derrick Henry has really stepped his game up for Tennessee, who will be without safety Jonathan Cyprien and rookie WR Corey Davis due to hamstring injuries.
Kansas City (-3/47) at L.A. Chargers: New head coach Anthony Lynn might be 2-0 in the alternate universe where he picked a different kicker, but Koo's inability to come through in the clutch has cost the Chargers a chance to get off to a good start in their new digs. Their L.A. debut at the StubHub Center didn't offer encouraging signs that they'll be able to have any homefield advantage in place, which bodes well for a Chiefs team that has won six straight in the series.
L.A. is expected to have Melvin Gordon (knee) in the lineup despite him being limited in practice on Thursday and should have it's offensive line intact, which is good news for Philip Rivers as he looks to take advantage of an Eric Berry-less Kansas City secondary that had some communication issues against the Eagles last Sunday. Alex Smith will benefit from not having to deal with Jason Verrett, an excellent corner who has been ruled out with a knee injury. Smith is completing nearly 80 percent of his passes and has thrown five TD passes without being picked. Since joining the Chiefs, he's got a 16-to-1 TD-to-INT ration in AFC West road games, a huge reason why his team is 7-1 SU and ATS on the road against the division since '14.
Cincinnati at Green Bay (-9/46): The Bengals have been the biggest culprit in delivering unwatchable offense, averaging a league-worst 4.5 points. Worst of all, Cincinnati has actually been favored in both losses, so it hits the road as nearly a double-digit underdog as veteran Bill Lazor takes over the play-calling for the fired Ken Zampese. Expect him to call for short throws to backs to try and get Andy Dalton into the rhythm that's eluded him thus far.
The Packers will be without key LB Nick Perry and continue to be banged up along the offensive line, which really hindered Rodgers and the offense in Atlanta. Jordy Nelson will play, but there's a chance Randall Cobb won't be able to participate, so there's definitely an argument that the Packers are laying too many points here since they could be missing quite a few key pieces. Cincinnati LB Vontaze Burfict will be serving the third and final game of his suspension, while tight end Tyler Eifert (back) will miss another game. Green Bay hasn't beaten the Bengals since 1998, losing three straight.
Oakland (-3/55) at Washington: The Raiders lead the NFL in points per game and get a Sunday night stage to strut their stuff on, but they'll be facing a talented 'Skins defense that will count on Josh Norman continuing his strong start in an effort to try and slow down a prolific offense. Derek Carr is spreading the wealth and getting rid of the football faster than anyone in the league, per Pro Football Focus, so he's picked up where he left off pre-injury by completing 75 percent of his passes with 5 TDs and no picks.
Counterpart Kirk Cousins has struggled against secondaries other teams have lit up, so he's already under pressure to perform and may have to face a defensive backfield that would include projected starting corners Sean Smith (neck) and rookie first-round pick Gareon Conley for the first time. Tight end and key red zone target Jordan Reed (shoulder) is also expected to play, so this one has a good chance of being entertaining.
The Raiders won their last trip to FedEx Field back in 2005 and went 2-0 on the road against NFC foes last year after going 0-2 in Jack Del Rio's first season.
Monday, Sept. 25
Dallas (-3/47) at Arizona: If nothing else, we'll get to publicly flog the loser of this game since they'll be under .500 and will therefore be underachieving. Dak Prescott comes off a game where he threw 20 incompletions and two interceptions, while Carson Palmer has looked washed, leading the league with four picks. With David Johnson and John Brown out and J.J. Nelson landing on the injury report with a hamstring issue, the Cardinals could have an uphill climb getting right considering they'll also be missing guard Mike Iupati up front. The Cowboys are a road favorite in spite of what transpired in last week's debacle in Denver and will face another solid front in Arizona. Ezekiel Elliott will be in the lineup again with his suspension still on hold, but he comes off being held under 10 yards in a game for the first time in his life.
Both teams are under pressure to show some heart and play with more passion than they did in Week 2. Dallas head coach Jason Garrett has been under fire for his team's performance and hasn't been a part of a Cowboy win over the Carinals since he was still playing back in the late 90's. Arizona has won each of the four meetings over the last decade, winning the last one at home back in '14. The Cardinals are making their home debut and will be an underdog in Glendale for the first time since Dec. 2014.
