Cnotes 2017 NFL Trends/Stats/News/Picks Thru The Super Bowl

[CNOTES]

SuperContest Picks - Week 17
December 30, 2017


The Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry.


Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.


The LVH Casino at Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center, which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVH SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.


This year's contest has 2,748, which is an all-time record.


Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon and list all of the selections for each matchup.


Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8


Week 9 | Week 10 | Week 11 | Week 12 | Week 13 | Week 14 | Week 15 | Week 16


Week 17


1) San Francisco -3 (1045)
2) Cleveland +11 (666)
3) Washington -3 (596)
4) Carolina +3.5 (585)
5) Indianapolis -3.5 (583)


SUPERCONTEST WEEK 16 MATCHUPS & ODDS
Away Team Selections Home Team Selections
Cincinnati (+9.5) 437 Baltimore (-9.5) 255
Green Bay (+6.5) 234 Detroit (-6.5) 369
Buffalo (-2.5) 457 Miami (+2.5) 369
Carolina (+3.5) 585 Atlanta (-3.5) 410
New Orleans (-7) 431 Tampa Bay (+7) 312
Jacksonville (+3) 460 Tennessee (-3) 364
N.Y. Jets (+15.5) 372 New England (-15.5) 220
Houston (+3.5) 121 Indianapolis (-3.5) 583
Cleveland (+11) 666 Pittsburgh (+11) 240
Washington (-3) 596 N.Y. Giants (+3) 179
Chicago (+11.5) 243 Minnesota (-11.5) 379
Dallas (-3) 371 Philadelphia (+3) 251
Oakland (+7.5) 393 L.A. Chargers (-7.5) 300
Arizona (+9.5) 402 Seattle (-9.5) 256
Kansas City (+3.5) 352 Denver (-3.5) 189
San Francisco (-3) 1045 L.A. Rams (+3) 189


WEEKLY AND OVERALL CONSENSUS RECORDS
Week Consensus Record Overall Record Percentage
1 0-5 0-5 0%
2 3-2 3-7 30%
3 2-3 5-10 33%
4 4-1 9-11 45%
5 1-4 10-15 40%
6 2-3 12-18 40%
7 0-5 12-23 34%
8 2-3 14-26 35%
9 3-2 17-28 38%
10 1-4 18-32 36%
11 4-1 22-33 40%
12 3-2 25-35 42%
13 5-0 30-35 46%
14 3-2 33-37 47%
15 2-1-2 35-39-2 47%
16 2-3 37-42-2 47%
17 - - -

 

[CNOTES]

Essential Week 17 betting tidbits and odds for NFL Sunday


The Steelers-Browns spread moved 10 points with word that Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin might rest starting running back Le'Veon Bell and starting quarterback Ben Roethlisberger.


Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-11.5, 39.5)


The Vikings will earn the No. 2 seed in the NFC playoff seeding and a first round bye if they beat the Bears. The fate of Bears coaching staff is tenuous to say the least. Chicago is 15-32 straight up under head coach John Fox.


Minnesota smashed Chicago 38-10 when the two teams faced each other in Week 17 last season.


LINE HISTORY: The books opened with Vikes giving as many as 13 points to the Bears but most shops are dealing Bears +11.5 on Saturday. The total has dropped a half point from the opening line of 40.


TRENDS:


*The Vikings are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games against teams with losing records.
*The under is 5-0 in the Bears’ last five games.


Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (+2.5, 39)


There is nothing at stake for either team in this game. Eagles head coach Doug Pederson has said all his starters will play but probably not for the whole game. The Cowboys will play all their healthy starters according to head coach Jason Garrett.


LINE HISTORY: The Eagles opened as short chalk but the line quickly flipped once the game became meaningless to Philly.


TRENDS:


*The Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.
*The under is 7-1 in the Cowboys’ last eight games.


New York Jets at New England Patriots (-14.5, 43.5)


Nothing is on the line for the Jets who’ve been eliminated from the playoffs for weeks now. Head coach Todd Bowles had his contract extended which removes his feet from the fire of the New York media. He won’t feel pressured to win a game his team is a two-touchdown underdog to keep from being fired.


The Patriots need to win to secure the top overall seed in the AFC playoffs. The game-time temperature for this game is expected to be around 11 degrees F.


LINE HISTORY: Some shops opened as high as Pats -16.5 and are still at that spread. Others are dealing -15.5 and 14.5. The total opened at 46 and has dropped to as low as 43.


TRENDS:


*The Jets are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games against the Pats.
*The under is 8-3 in New England’s last 11 games.


Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6, 36.5)


The Browns have nothing to play for except their pride as they try to avoid an 0-16 season. The Steelers still have a shot at the top overall seed in the AFC but they are acting under the presumption the Patriots will beat the Jets and take the No. 1 spot.


Steelers coach Mike Tomlin won’t say for sure if his starters will play but beat reporters for the team think it’s unlikely quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and running back Le’Veon Bell will play. That would mean Pittsburgh would be without their three key offensive playmakers against Cleveland because All-Pro wideout Antonio Brown is already out with a calf injury.


LINE HISTORY: The Steelers opened as high as 16.5-point chalk but the line has dropped a full 10 points once bettors and bookies got the hint that Pittsburgh would be resting key starters. The total took a major plunge too. It opened at 41 and most shops are now at 36.5.


TRENDS:


*The Steelers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games.
*The Browns are 15-36-1 in their last 52 games.


Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-5.5, 40.5)


Both of these teams have been out of the playoff picture for weeks. Houston can’t keep any of its quarterbacks from getting their heads caved in. Tom Savage is recovering from a series of concussions he picked up this season. T.J. Yates had to leave the game against Pittsburgh while team staff evaluated him for a possible concussion. Taylor Heinicke started the second half against Pitt and promptly got crushed and suffered a head injury himself.


Yates cleared concussion protocol and will start against the Colts and Heinicke is expected to serve as the backup. Pro Bowl receiver DeAndre Hopkins is not expected to play on Sunday because of a calf injury.


LINE HISTORY: The Colts opened as field goal favorites at most locations and are now giving as many as six points at some books. The total opened at 43 and has dropped to 40.


TRENDS:


*The Texans are 0-4 ATS in their last four games.
*The under is 7-0 in the Colts’ last seven games.


Washington Redskins at New York Giants (+3, 39.5)


The Redskins have been missing key offensive contributors for weeks but that didn’t stop them from putting up 27 points against the league’s best defensive team (Denver) last week. Offensive tackle Trent Williams is officially done for the year and will be out for the next six months. This could be impending free agent Kirk Cousins’ last game as Washington’s quarterback.


Giants interim head coach Steve Spagnuolo is auditioning to be the HC next season. The audition is going great so far. The G-Men are 0-3 SU (1-2 ATS) while being outscored 39-87 since Spagnuolo took over for Ben McAdoo.


LINE HISTORY: The line has bounced around all week between Washington -3 and -3.5. The books are playing with the juice to determine whether they want to be at or over the field goal spread. The total opened at 38.5 and has gone up to 39.5 at some shops.


TRENDS:


*The Redskins are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against NFC East opponents.
*The Giants are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 Week 17 games.


Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (-6.5, 43)


Both of these NFC North rivals are just playing out the string in this contest. The Lions were elimintated from the playoffs after they lost 26-17 to the Cincinnati Bengals. Lions owner Martha Ford wouldn’t say if head coach Jim Caldwell will return as the head coach next season.


The Packers already placed quarterback Aaron Rodgers on IR. Wide receivers Jordy Nelson and Davante Adams and running back Aaron Jones are all expected to sit this game out due to injuries.


LINE HISTORY: The Lions opened as high as 8.5-point chalk but dropped down a couple points once they had been eliminated from the postseason.


TRENDS:


*The favorite is 17-5 in the last 22 meetings between the Lions and Packers.
*The over is 21-7 in the Packers’ last 28 games.


San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (+4, 43.5)


The Rams will rest multiple key starters in preparation for the playoffs including quarterback Jared Goff, running back Todd Gurley and defensive lineman Aaron Donald. Sean Mannion will start under center for the Rams. He’s attempted 16 regular season pass attempts in his three seasons in the pros.


The 49ers are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS since Jimmy Garoppolo took over the starting QB job.


LINE HISTORY: The Rams opened as 4-point chalk but the line flipped once oddsmakers learned of coach Sean McVay’s plans to rest his key starters.


TRENDS:


*The 49ers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games.
*The 49ers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games against the Rams.


Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (-4, 38)


The playoff-bound Chiefs will rest starting quarterback Alex Smith against the Broncos and turn to rookie first round pick Patrick Mahomes II to handle the offensive snaps. Tyreek Hill – Kansas City’s leader in receiving yards – will sit this game out as well.


LINE HISTORY: Denver opened as 1.5-point favorite but the line has grown as more and more KC players get ruled out of this game. The total opened at 39 and has come down a point to 38.


TRENDS:


*The Broncos are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games.
*The under is 6-1 in the Chiefs’ last seven games.


Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-9.5, 40)


The Ravens need a win to secure their spot in the AFC playoffs while the Bengals are playing in most likely Marvin Lewis’ last game as head coach.


Baltimore head coach John Harbaugh isn’t happy with the NFL’s decision to move his team’s start time from the early to the late afternoon kickoff. The league wanted all teams with playoff impactions playing at the same time. The Ravens home crowd could be much smaller because the game is taking place on New Year’s Eve.


LINE HISTORY: There’s been no real movement on the spread but the total has dropped from 40.5 to 40.


TRENDS:


*The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last seven matchups between the Ravens and Bengals.
*The Ravens are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games against AFC North opponents.


Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (+2.5, 42.5)


The Bills need to be the Dolphins and then get some help in order for them to qualify for the playoffs for the first time in 17 years. Buffalo needs the Ravens to lose to the Bengals or both the Chargers and Titans to lose on Sunday for a chance at a postseason berth.


Miami held Bills running back LeSean McCoy to 50 yards on 20 carries in Week 15 but he still found the end zone three times en route to a 24-16 win and ATS cover. The Dolphins have allowed the sixth fewest rushing yards per game over the last three weeks at 81.3. The Bills are dead last in passing offense at just 175.9 yards per game.


LINE HISTORY: The spread opened at 2.5 and a few shops toed the water at a field goal line for a little bit before returning to Bills -2.5.


TRENDS:


*The over is 8-2 in the Dolphins’ last 10 games.
*The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings between these two sides.


Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-3, 42)


The Titans need to win this game to secure an AFC wild card playoff spot. The Jaguars are the AFC South champs and will host a playoff game next weekend. That isn’t keeping them from playing their starters this weekend though.


Field conditions could be an issue in this game. The Titans’ home stadium was the site for the Music City Bowl played on Friday.


LINE HISTORY: The Titans opened as high as 6-point chalk but the line dropped down to a field goal spread once word spread Jacksonville would not be resting its starters for this game.


TRENDS:


*The Jags are 5-1 ATS in their last six games against teams with winning records.
*Tennessee is 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 home games.


Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-9, 38.5)


The Seahawks need to beat the Cardinals and see the Panthers top the Falcons in order to qualify for the playoffs. There was a bit of a hub-bub this week when Cards head coach Bruce Arians comments calling Seattle’s CenturyLink field “our home field.”


Arians said this in the locker room addressing his team following the win over the Giants last weekend. Cameras were on and caught the comment. The Cardinals are 3-1 straight up and against the spread playing at Seattle since Arians took over the job in Arizona.


LINE HISTORY: The Seahawks opened as 7.5-point faves and the line moved up to 10 by Saturday. The total opened at 40.5 and has since dropped to 38.5.


TRENDS:


*The Cards are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games.
*The road team is 5-0-1 ATS in the last six games between these two teams.


New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+6.5, 48)


The Saints are definitely going to the playoffs but they can still improve their playoff positioning with a win over the Bucs on Sunday. The Tampa Bay Times reported Dirk Koetter will return as the Buccaneers’ head coach next season despite a 4-11 record this year.


LINE HISTORY: The Saints opened as 7.5-point road faves and the line has dropped a point to rest at a 6.5-point spread. The total opened as high as 50.5 but dropped to 48 by the weekend.


TRENDS:


*The Saints are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games against NFC South foes.
*The under is 5-0 in the Bucs’ last five home games.


Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5, 45)


The Falcons need to either with this game against the Panthers or see the Seahawks fall to the Cardinals in order to punch their ticket to the postseason. The Panthers are still fighting for the NFC South division crown. They need to beat Atlanta and have New Orleans trip up against Tampa Bay.


Falcons starting center Alex Mack is a game-time decision to play against Carolina because of a calf injury. Carolina has the third most takeaways in the league over the last eight games with 17.


LINE HISTORY: The Falcons opened as 3-point home chalk and the line has grown a half point to 3.5 since. The total opened around 47 and has dropped to as low as 45.


TRENDS:


*Carolina is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games.
*The under is 4-0 in the Falcons’ last four games.


Oakland Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-7.5, 42)


This could resemble a home game for the Raiders who haven’t played in Los Angeles for more than two decades but have a much larger fan base in the area than the Chargers.


“I’m expecting it to be blacked out, regardless of the record that [the Raiders] have and what ours is,” Bolts running back Melvin Gordon told reporters. “I just keep having flashbacks to last year at Qualcomm when there were a million, a zillion Raiders fans there.”


LINE HISTORY: The books opened with the Bolts giving eight points but most shops are now dealing Chargers -7.5. The total opened around 44 but came down to 42.5 since then.


TRENDS:


*The under is 6-0 in the Raiders’ last six games.
*The underdog is 15-2 ATS in the last 17 matchups between these two teams.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL


Sunday, December 31


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NFL Game of the Day betting preview and odds: Panthers at Falcons
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5, 45)


The Atlanta Falcons can clinch a playoff berth with a win Sunday, but they won’t face a pushover opponent because the Carolina Panthers need a road win to retain their hopes of an NFC South title. The Falcons need a win or a Seattle loss to claim the final playoff spot in the NFC.


Atlanta was knocked out of contention for the division title with a 23-13 loss at New Orleans last week, while Carolina kept alive its hopes of a division crown when Cam Newton’s rushing touchdown with 35 seconds left lifted the Panthers to a 22-19 win over Tampa Bay. The Panthers could still end up seeded anywhere from second to fifth in the NFC playoffs, though they need a win and some help from multiple other teams to improve upon the No. 5 seed they’re in line for with a loss or a New Orleans victory at Tampa Bay. Regardless, Carolina plans to play its starters and play to win, perhaps while keeping one eye on the scoreboard in case the result becomes irrelevant. The Panthers, who have won seven of their last eight, snapped a three-game losing streak against the Falcons with a 20-17 home win in Week 9.

TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX.

POWER RANKINGS: Panthers (-3) - Falcons (-1.5) + home field (-3) = Falcons -1.5.

LINE HISTORY: The Falcons opened as 3.5-point home chalk at most shops, money coming in on Atlanta saw that line rise to -4 before returning to the opening number late in the week. The total hit the betting board at 47 and has been bet down at most shops to 45.

WEATHER REPORT: Dome

INJURY REPORT:


Panthers - LB Thomas Davis (Probable, Suspension), DE Charles Johnson (Eligible, Suspension), G Trai Turner (Questionable, Concussion), WR Russell Shepard (Questionable, Shoulder), CB Cole Luke (Questionable, Ankle), DE Demetrious Cox (Questionable, Ankle), LB Jared Norris (I-R, Calf), OT John Theus (I-R, Concussion).


Falcons - G Andy Levitre (Questionable, Tricep), LB Sean Weatherspoon (Questionable, Illness), LB Jordan Tripp (Questionable, Concussion), S Quincy Mauger (I-R, Knee).

ABOUT THE PANTHERS (11-4 SU, 9-6 ATS, 9-6 O/U): Carolina continues to get the job done in the trenches, ranking fourth in rushing offense and sixth in run defense. The guys who power that ground game – Newton and running backs Jonathan Stewart and Christian McCaffrey – will be among the first relegated to the bench if the Saints open a big lead against the Buccaneers. The defense that was dominant early in the season has given up bigger chunks of yardage of late but also has forced 10 turnovers in the past three games.

ABOUT THE FALCONS (9-6 SU, 6-9 ATS, 5-10 O/U): Atlanta has crept into the top 10 in the league in total offense after a slow start, but the Falcons managed only 331 total yards in last week’s loss at New Orleans. Matt Ryan is likely to surpass 4,000 passing yards for the seventh straight season, but his numbers represent a big dropoff from a year ago, and star receiver Julio Jones is battling ankle and thumb injuries. The defense has been excellent against the run most of the season but especially of late, holding three straight opponents and four of the last five under 100 rushing yards.

TRENDS:


* Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.


* Falcons are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.


* Under is 7-1 in Falcons last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.


* Under is 7-1-1 in the last 9 meetings.


* Home team is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the road dog Panthers at a rate of 57 percent and the Over is getting 60 percent of the totals action.

 

[CNOTES]

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 31
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


DAL at PHI 01:00 PM
PHI +3.5
U 40.0


CHI at MIN 01:00 PM
MIN -12.5
U 38.5


GB at DET 01:00 PM
DET -7.0
O 45.0


CLE at PIT 01:00 PM
CLE +6.0
U 38.0


NYJ at NE 01:00 PM
NYJ +15.0
U 43.0


HOU at IND 01:00 PM
IND -6.0
U 42.0


SF at LAR 04:25 PM
SF -5.0
O 43.5


CAR at ATL 04:25 PM
CAR +4.0
U 45.0


ARI at SEA 04:25 PM
ARI +8.5
O 38.5


CIN at BAL 04:25 PM
CIN +9.0
U 40.0


NO at TB 04:25 PM
NO -6.0
U 49.0


KC at DEN 04:25 PM
KC +3.0
U 37.5


OAK at LAC 04:25 PM
OAK +7.0
U 43.0


JAC at TEN 04:25 PM
TEN -2.0
U 40.5


BUF at MIA 04:25 PM
MIA +2.5
O 41.5

 

[CNOTES]

WAS at NYG 01:00 PM


NYG +4.0


U 40.5

 

[CNOTES]

Monday’s 6-pack


Top 6 picks in Week 17 in the Westgate Super Contest:


6) Jacksonville Jaguars +3 (460)- L


5) Indianapolis Colts -3.5 (583)-W


4) Carolina Panthers +3.5 (585)- L


3) Washington Redskins -3 (596)- L


2) Cleveland Browns +11 (666)- W


1) San Francisco 49ers -3 (1,045)- W


Record of top 6 picks each week: 50-49–3


***************************


Monday’s List of 13: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday……


13) Bengals 31, Ravens 27— An epic gag by Baltimore, giving up a 49-yard TD pass with 0:41 left on a 4th-and-12 play that puts Buffalo in the playoffs and knocks the Ravens out. Bills are in the playoffs for the first time since 1999.


12) Falcons 22, Panthers 10— Atlanta is in, Seattle is out; Falcons visit the Los Angeles Coliseum next week to play the Rams.


11) Buccaneers 31, Saints 24— Tampa Bay scored on a 38-yard TD pass with 0:09 left to beat the Saints, who will now host Carolina next week in the playoffs, as the #4 seed.


10) Titans 15, Jaguars 10— If you’re Jacksonville, how do you feel about going to the playoffs with two consecutive losses? Meaningless losses, but still…….


Titans visit Kansas City next week in the playoffs.


9) Cowboys 6, Eagles 0— First NFL game in ten years that was 0-0 after three quarters. Eagles’ #3 QB Nate Sudfeld wasn’t horrible in his NFL debut.


8) Patriots 26, Jets 6— With 10:28 to play and down 24-3, the Jets kicked a 35-yard FG. This was the only game that was still going on at 4:05 ET— Week 17 games tend to go faster. Game ended at 4:10, leaving 15 minutes of dead air before the late games started.


7) Colts 22, Texans 13— Houston GM Rick Smith is taking a leave of absence to help care for his wife, who was recently diagnosed with cancer. No one is saying if he’ll be back in his job as GM; there were rumors that Smith and coach Bill O’Brien weren’t getting along well, to the point that one of them would have to leave the Texans. We’ll see.


6) Chargers 30, Raiders 10— This is how fragile success in the NFL is; Raiders were 12-4 last year. Now they might be totally cleaning house, 12 short months later.


Oakland hasn’t ended the regular season with a win since 2009- Jack Del Rio told a writer he was fired before I got the game’s stats written in my notebook.


5) Cardinals 26, Seahawks 24— Arizona won four of its last five visits to Seattle; Cardinals will have a hard time finding a head coach as good as Bruce Arians was.


4) Chiefs 27, Broncos 24— This game was first time since 1987 that the Chiefs won a game that was QB’d by a player they drafted— 30 years !!! Todd Blackledge was the QB in ’87; this game was won by rookie Patrick Mahomes, and now Alex Smith can get traded to the Browns, after the Chiefs lose in the playoffs.


3) Steelers 28, Browns 24— Cleveland has the 1st and 4th picks in the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft— maybe they should call Kevin Costner to make the picks for them (movie reference).


Cleveland just went 1-31 the last two years; the NFL should demand that one of their first round picks be a quarterback, just so the fans don’t get even more depressed.


2) Vikings 23, Bears 10— Minnesota gets #1 seed in NFC; if they win two home playoff games, they’ll play the Super Bowl on their home field.


1) NFL playoff picture:
AFC: Patriots/Steelers get byes. WC games: Titans @ Chiefs, Bills @ Jaguars
NFC: Eagles/Vikings get byes. WC games: Falcons @ Rams, Panthers @ Saints

 

[CNOTES]

Betting Recap - Week 17
December 31, 2017


Overall Notes


NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE WEEK 17 RESULTS


Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 11-5
Against the Spread 9-6-1


Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 10-6
Against the Spread 8-7-1


Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 7-9


HAPPY NEW YEAR, EVERYONE!!!


The largest underdogs to win straight up
Bengals (+8, ML + ) at Ravens, 31-27
Cardinals (+8, ML + ) at Seahawks, 26-24
Buccaneers (+6, ML + ) vs. Saints, 31-24
Giants (+5, ML + ) vs. Redskins, 18-10


The largest favorite to cover
Chargers (-7) vs. Raiders, 30-10
Lions (-7) vs. Packers, 35-11
49ers (-6.5) at Rams, 34-13
Colts (-5.5) vs. Texans, 22-13


Finishing Up Strong


-- The San Francisco 49ers were obviously helped out in Week 17 by the fact the Los Angeles Rams were resting their starters with nothing to gain in the playoff seeding process, but Vegas also had the Niners installed as a 6 1/2-point favorite. They produced yet another win, as the legend of QB Jimmy Garoppolo continues to grow. The 49ers won their fifth consecutive game to close out the 2017 campaign, finishing 6-10 after opening 0-9 SU. At the betting window the Niners were a favorite, too, as they ended up going 4-1 ATS over their final five outings to close out 2017. They'll be a team to watch heading into 2018 after free agency and the NFL Draft.

Not Done Yet


-- The Buffalo Bills and Tennessee Titans secured AFC Wild Card berths with wins in Week 17. The Bills needed the Cincinnati Bengals to take care of the Baltimore Ravens, and they scored a shocking touchdown with less than a minute left for the 31-27 road upset to snap the Bills' 17-year playoff drought. The Titans ended the regular season on a high note, going 5-1 ATS across their final six games. They'll travel to meet the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Wild-Card round next weekend, and they opened 7 1/2-point underdogs. The Bills are underdogs by the same number as they travel to meet the Jacksonville Jaguars next weekend. They closed out their regular season with a 4-2 ATS mark, although they were just 2-4 ATS over their past six road games. The Titans-Chiefs and Bills-Jaguars did not meet in the 2017 regular season.


Total Recall


-- The Chiefs pushed past the Denver Broncos by a 27-24 score, a game which hit the 'over' (37.5) rather easily. But the game was littered with plenty of reserves on both sides of the ball, so there isn't much to glean from this result. In the previous seven games, the Chiefs were using their starters and the 'under' cashed in six of seven outings. That's something to watch heading into their playoff game next week. The Titans hit the 'under' in Week 17, and it cashed in four of their final six outings. The 'under' was also 4-2 in their final six games on the road.


-- The Bills went 'under' in Week 17, and the total went under for a 4-1-1 record in their final six games. On the road, the 'under' was 5-3 overall on the season. The Jaguars had a stout defense this season, but the 'over' still cashed rather frequently. The over was 3-1 in their final four outings, although the 'under' hit in Week 17. The over actually hit in five of their eight home games this season. The total opened at 41 for the Bills-Jaguars game.


-- There were no primetime games in Week 17, so the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 primetime games during the 2017 season. Officially, the 'over' finished 27-24 (52.9%) through 51 games under the lights in 2016. In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games. In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.


Injury Report


-- Bills RB LeSean McCoy (ankle) rolled his ankle in the third quarter of the Week 17 game at Miami and he was unable to return. His status for Wild-Card weekend is uncertain.


-- Chiefs WR De'Anthony Thomas (leg) sustained a fractured tibia on a punt return late in the Week 17 game against the Broncos and he is obviously done for the season.


Looking Ahead


-- The Titans will travel to meet the Chiefs in the wild card. The Titans are 6-1 ATS over their past seven against teams with a winning record, and 4-1 ATS in their past five on a grass surface. However, they're still just 14-38-4 ATS in their past 56 against AFC foes, and 8-20 ATS in their past 28 road games. They're also 0-5 ATS in their past five appearances on a Saturday.


-- The Chiefs have covered four in a row, they're 4-0 ATS in their past four vs. AFC teams and they're 4-1 ATS in their past five home games. However, Kansas City is a dismal 1-8 ATS in their past nine playoff games, and 0-5 ATS in their past five playoff games at Arrowhead.


-- The Falcons are an impressive 13-6 ATS in their past 19 vs. NFC opponents, but they're just 2-7 ATS in their past nine playoff games. They're also 1-5 ATS in their past six road games, and 0-4 ATS in their past four playoff road outings. They travel to meet the Rams on Saturday night. The 'over' is 5-0 in Atlanta's past five playoff games.


-- The Rams have posted a 6-13-1 ATS mark across their past 20 against NFC foes, while going 4-10-1 ATS in their pat 15 at home. And while it's been a while, the Rams are 1-4 ATS in their past five playoff games.


-- It has been 17 years, but Buffalo is on an 0-4 ATS run in their past four playoff games. The 'over' is 9-4 in Buffalo's past 13 against teams with a winning overall record.


-- The Jaguars are 6-2 ATS in their past eight games against AFC opponents, and 4-1 ATS in their past five at home. While it has been a long time, the 'over' is 4-1-1 in Jacksonville's past six playoff home games, but the 'under' is 7-1 in their past eight vs. AFC opponents.


-- The Panthers and Saints meet for the third time this season. Carolina was swept in the regular season by New Orleans, and they're just 1-4 ATS in their past five trips to NOLA, while going 0-6 ATS in the past six meetings overall. However, the road team is a sparkling 23-10 ATS in the past 33 meetings in this series, with the underdog 6-1 ATS in the past seven. The 'over' is also 4-0 in the past four in New Orleans, and 6-1 in the past seven meetings overall.

 

[CNOTES]

december nfl best bets & opinions ( based on 5 units )


date w-l-t % units record


12/31/2017 21-11-0 65.63% +44.50
12/25/2017 2-2-0 50.00% -1.00
12/24/2017 12-11-1 52.17% -0.50
12/23/2017 2-2-0 50.00% -1.00
12/18/2017 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
12/17/2017 12-9-2 57.14% +10.50
12/16/2017 NO PLAYS
12/14/2017 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
12/11/2017 NO PLAYS
12/10/2017 16-11-0 59.25% +19.50
12/07/2017 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
12/04/2017 0-1-1 0.00% -5.50
12/03/2017 11-17-0 39.29% -38.50


Totals..........77 - 68........53.10%............+16.00


best bets:......................ats.................... ..units.........................o/u....................units


12/31/2017.................10 - 5....................+22.50........................8 - 4.................+18.00
12/25/2017..................1 - 1.....................-0.50...........................1 - 1..................0.50
12/24/2017..................2 - 4.....................-12.00..........................5 - 5.................-2.50
12/23/2017..................1 - 1.....................-0.50............................1 - 1.................-0,50
12/18/2017..................1 - 0.....................+ 5.00..........................1 - 0.................+5.00
12/17/2017................4 - 3 - 1..................+8.50.........................5 - 4 - 1..............+3.00
12/16/2017................................N O P L A Y S................................................. ....
12/14/2017..................0 - 1.....................-5.50.............................0 - 1................-5.50
12/11/2017................................N O P L A Y S................................................. ......
12/10/2017..................6 - 3....................+13.50....................... ...5 - 3.................+8.50
12/07/2017..................0 - 1.....................-5.50............................0 - 1.................-5.50
12/03/2017..................0 - 1.....................-5.50............................0 - 0..................push
12/03/2017..................5 - 5.....................-2.50............................5 - 5..................-2.50


Totals..........................30 - 25..................+17.50.........................31 - 25...............+17.50

 

[TIGERTOY]

Thank you CNOTES for your hard work all year.

Happy New Year my friend. cheersgif

 

[CNOTES]

Thanks Tigertoy..............best wishes for you ...............cheersgif

 

[CNOTES]

Books squeak out Week 17 win
January 1, 2018


The final week of the NFL's regular season got most New Year's Eve parties started early on Sunday with all 32 teams participating. There were six teams vying for the final three wild card slots and the NFL made sure that all the playoff hopefuls played games at the same time. No Thursday night games, no Saturday games, no Sunday or Monday night contests either and it turned out being one of the most exciting weeks of the regular season.


As for the the end results for the sports books, mixed would best describe it with most in the category of being small winners.


"We won a crumb," is how William Hill's head bookmaker Nick Bogdanovich perfectly described results from his 107 books across Nevada.


A crumb is something, for sure, but it's really not. In fact, we often throw crumbs away as trash. Those crumbs are much worse to look at when it happens on the final day of the business quarter and overall season. It's smaller than a ham sandwich. Most of all, end-of-year bonuses are at stake and crumbs don't turn into bonus checks.


"Escaped is the best I can say about the day," said Atlantis Reno sports book director Marc Nelson of his Week 17 results. "The parlay cards could have been a nightmare had just two or three games gone differently."


Nelson, who just took over Atlantis two weeks ago, said his worst game ended up being the Lions and his best game was the Buccaneers. The Lions (-7) covered at home in a 35-11 win over the Packers. The Buccaneers (+6) electrified the sports book crowds with their last second, 31-24 home win over the Saints, who still ended up winning the NFC South despite the loss because Carolina lost at Atlanta.


The money-line payout on the Bucs at Coast Resorts was +270, one of five underdogs to win outright while favorites ended up going 10-6 against the spread and the 'under' was 9-7.


Perhaps the coolest thing to watch on Sunday was the amount of afternoon games. Of the 16 games on the day, nine of them kicked off at 1:25 p.m. PT. It was an odd, but welcomed sight.


"I've seen eight or nine in the morning games with just two in the afternoon before, but never nine in the afternoon," said Nelson, who has worked in Nevada books for the past 25 years. "I kind of liked it," he said.


Of course, Nelson and other bookmakers liked it because it gives bettors more options to lose on. With only two afternoon games, it's easier for bettors to cash because they're not allowed to be greedy. Side-to-total 1 and side-to-total 2. That's it.


Some books managed to do better than others on Sunday.


"It was a very good day for us," said CG Technology VP of risk management Jason Simbal. "The worst game of the day for us was the Cowboys and the best turned out being the Bengals and Cardinals."


Again, the key underdogs stepped up for the books. The Bengals knocking the Ravens (-8) out of the playoffs with a last second, 31-27 win, paid +380 on the money-line and was the crowning moment of a spectacular Sunday whether betting the games or not. It was amazing. The Cardinals gritty 26-24 win at Seattle (-8) was their fourth win at Seattle in the past five seasons and paid +340 on the money-line.


If the Eagles had managed to score anything, the books would have been happy because every parlay on the day seemed to have the Cowboys (-4) knowing Philly would rest players. The Cowboys ended up winning 6-0.


"Lighter handles, but still an okay day," said Station Casinos sports book director Jason McCormick. "I'm happy just to get through the mess of Week 17. The Giants, Bucs, and Cardinals were great games for us. The 49ers were by far our worst."


Week 17 always provides drama for the bookmakers because of not knowing who is playing, or how long the starters will play. It's all eventually reflected in the number, but being vulnerable gives them a queasy feeling because eventually middle opportunities are created for the books to get beat on both sides.


For example, if you had bet the Rams last Sunday night at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, you could have gotten -6.5. By kickoff, the spread had the 49ers -6.5 with the Rams resting their two MVP candidates. That's the biggest swing of the NFL season and one of the largest I've seen in a while -- the last was another Week 17 also. The 49ers easily won, 34-13, for their fifth straight win after starting 1-10.


One piece of information that escaped both the books and wise guys was Jay Cutler scheduled to take only three snaps. The Bills had a playoff berth on the line and the Dolphins decided to let back-up David Fales play most of the game, and he was terrible. The Bills (-2.5) won 22-16. Had bettors know of the QB plan, the number would have ran to at least -6.


Happy New Years and Cheers!

 

[CNOTES]

AFC Wild Card Notes
January 1, 2018


Saturday, January 6, 2018


AFC – Tennessee at Kansas City – 4:20 p.m. (ESPN)


Opening Line (1/1/18): Kansas City -7, 44 ½
Current Line (1/1/18): Kansas City -7, 44 ½


Tennessee Road Record: 3-5 SU, 3-5 ATS
Kansas City Home Record: 6-2 SU, 6-2 ATS


Head-to-Head: These clubs did not meet during the 2017 regular season, but they did play in Kansas City last December. the chiefs were favored by six points, but it was the Titans coming away with a 19-17 victory as the 'under' cashed. The road team has cashed in seven of the past eight meetings in this series, while the Titans are 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings at Arrowhead Stadium.


Playoff Notes: Tennessee snapped their playoff drought with a home win in Week 17, punching their ticket to the postseason for the first time since 2008. They're looking for their first win since a Wild-Card win in Baltimore during the 2003 NFL postseason. These teams haven't met in the playoffs since the Titans were the Oilers, with Kansas City coming away with a 28-20 victory on the road. The Chiefs had their 12-4 season ruined by a home loss to the Steelers last year in the Divisional Playoffs. Kansas City is 0-6 SU in their past six home playoff games dating back to a Wild-Card win in the 1993 playoffs against the Steelers.


Total Notes: The 'under' is 4-0 in the past four playoff games for the Titans, while the 'under' is 4-1 in the past five playoff home games for the Chiefs. The 'under' is also 6-2 in the past eight overall for Kansas City, while going 44-19 in their past 63 at home. The 'over' has hit in five of the past seven meetings in this series.

Sunday, January 7, 2018


AFC – Buffalo at Jacksonville – 1:05 p.m. (CBS)


Opening Line (1/1/18): Jacksonville -7 ½, 40
Current Line (1/1/18): Jacksonville -7 (Even), 40


Buffalo Road Record: 3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS
Jacksonville Home Record: 6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS

Head-to-Head: The Bills and Jaguars did not meet during the 2017 season. They last met in Buffalo on Nov. 27, 2016 with the Bills taking a 28-21 victory while the Jaguars covered as an 8 ½-point underdog. The teams met in Northeast Florida back on Oct. 25, 2015, with the Jags coming away with a 34-31 win as 3 ½-point underdogs as the 'over' hit. Before that, Buffalo won 27-20 in Week 15 of the 2013 season as a four-point favorite in another 'over' result.


Playoff Notes: Buffalo snapped a 17-year playoff drought to qualify, and it almost didn't happen. They needed a touchdown from the Cincinnati Bengals in the final minute of regulation to bump off the Baltimore Ravens in the final week of the regular season. Their last appearance in the playoffs came in 1999 in the Music City Miracle, a 22-16 loss at Tennessee. They also met their demise against the Jaguars, 30-27, at home in the 1996 AFC Wild-Card Game. In fact, Buffalo's last playoff win was in 1995. They're 0-3 in their past three playoff games dating back to a 24-3 win in the Division Playoffs in 1992 at Pittsburgh. The Jags are back in the playoffs for the first time since 2007, and they haven't hosted a playoff game since the 1999 AFC Championship Game. Their last win at home was a 62-7 win against the Miami Dolphins in Dan Marino's final game in the NFL in the 1999 Divisional Playoffs.

Total Notes: The 'over' is 9-4 in Buffalo's past 13 games against a team with a winning overall record. The over is 10-4 in Jacksonville's past 14 games at home, and 5-2 in their past seven games against a team with a winning overall mark. The 'under' is 7-1 in the past eight for the Jags vs. AFC opponents, while the 'over' is 4-1-1 in their past six playoff games. The 'over' has hit in each of the past five meetings between the Bills and Jaguars.

 

[CNOTES]

NFC Wild Card Notes
January 1, 2018


Saturday, January 6, 2018


NFC – Atlanta at L.A. Rams – 8:15 p.m. (NBC)


Opening Line (1/1/18): L.A. Rams -5 ½ (-120), 49
Current Line (1/1/18): L.A. Rams -5 ½ (-120), 49


Atlanta Road Record: 5-3 SU, 2-6 ATS
L.A. Rams Home Record: 4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS


Head-to-Head: The Falcons pounded the Rams by a 42-14 score on Dec. 11, 2016 in Los Angeles, covering a 4 1/2-point spread while the 'over' (44) cashed. The favorite has cashed in 13 of the past 16 meetings, with the Falcons going 5-2 ATS in the past seven in this series. The 'over' has cashed in 16 of the past 21 meetings, including 5-2 in the past seven meetings in St. Louis/Los Angeles.

Playoff Notes: Atlanta is back in the postseason looking to atone for a late collapse in Super Bowl LI, as they blew a 25-point lead against the New England Patriots to fall 34-28 in overtime. The Rams clinched the NFC West title for the first time since 2003. The Rams are also back in the postseason for the first time since 2004, when they beat the Seahawks in the wild card before bowing against, yep, you guessed it, the Falcons in Atlanta by a 47-17 score.


Total Notes: Atlanta wrapped up the season with five consecutive 'under' results, while hitting the under in 10 of their final 13 outings. On the flip side, Los Angeles hit the 'over' in each of their final five outings. At home, the over was 4-4, including 2-0 in the final two outings. The 'under' is 4-0 in Atlanta's past four against teams with a winning overall record, while going 3-1-1 in their past five playoff road games. The 'over' is 5-2 in the past seven against winning teams for Los Angeles, and 19-9 in their past 28 home games against a team with a winning road mark.




Sunday, January 7, 2018


NFC – Carolina at New Orleans - 4:40 p.m. (FOX)


Opening Line (1/1/18): New Orleans -5 ½, 48 ½
Current Line (1/1/18): New Orleans -6, 48 ½


Carolina Road Record: 5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS
New Orleans Home Record: 7-1 SU, 5-3 ATS

Head-to-Head: The Saints topped the Panthers in Charlotte by a 34-13 score in Week 3, winning as a 5 ½-point favorite as the 'over' cashed. The teams met again on Dec. 3 in the Big Easy, and the Saints won 31-21 as a six-point favorite, again hitting the 'over'. The Panthers are just 1-4 ATS in their past five trips to New Orleans and 0-6 ATS in the past six meetings in this series. The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the past seven in this series, while the orad team has cashed in 23 of the past 33 meetings overall.

Playoff Notes: Carolina is back in the playoffs for the fourth time in five seasons. It's also their eighth foray into the postseason since joining the NFL in 1995. They have never faced the Saints in the postseason. The Panthers have won four times in seven road outings in the playoffs all-time. This will be the 11th trip to the postseason for the Saints, and their first time since 2013. New Orleans has won five straight home playoff games since losing in the 1992 NFC Wild Card Game against the Eagles.

Total Notes: The 'over' is 4-1 in the past five playoff games for Carolina, and 5-2 in the past seven games overall. The over has also hit in 21 of the past 26 games for Carolina on a fieldturf surface. The 'under' has hit in four of the past five divisional matchups, however. The 'over' is a perfect 5-0 in the past five playoff home games for the Saints, while going 8-3-1 in their past 12 playoff games overall. The over is also 15-6-1 in the past 22 home games for New Orleans. The over is 4-0 in the past four meetings in this series in NOLA, while going 6-1 in the past seven meetings between these NFC South rivals.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL notebook: Arians' retirement among coaching moves
January 1, 2018


Arizona Cardinals coach Bruce Arians announced his retirement during an emotional press conference on Monday.


Arians spent Monday morning bidding farewell to colleagues prior to the press conference.


The 65-year-old just completed his fifth season with the Cardinals, who finished with an 8-8 mark. He owns a 49-30-1 mark with Arizona and also posted a 9-3 record as an interim head coach for the Indianapolis Colts in 2012 while Chuck Pagano was undergoing treatment for cancer.


Arians is a two-time NFL Coach of the Year recipient, capturing the honor in 2012 with the Colts and in 2014 with the Cardinals. He also has two Super Bowl rings during his eight seasons with the Pittsburgh Steelers as wide receivers coach and offensive coordinator.


--The Detroit Lions fired coach Jim Caldwell after four seasons at the helm. The move comes less than one year after he signed an extension.


Caldwell posted winning seasons in three of his four years as coach of the Lions, however, the team missed the playoffs twice in the last three seasons -- including this year following a 9-7 mark.


--The Chicago Bears fired coach John Fox. The Bears finished in the cellar of the NFC North for the third consecutive season under Fox, who was hired by the team in January 2015 after a four-year stint as the Denver Broncos' coach.


Fox coached the Broncos to a 46-18 record, four consecutive division titles and a Super Bowl appearance, but that level of success did not travel with him to the Windy City.


--Green Bay Packers general manager Ted Thompson is being re-assigned to a new role with the team, according to reports.


The 65-year-old Thompson has been the team's GM since 2005.


The Packers will begin a search for a new general manager as Thompson shifts to a new role within the organization.


--The Giants submitted requests to interview New England Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels and defensive coordinator Matt Patricia for the team's head-coaching position, multiple outlets reported.


The team also submitted a request for Carolina Panthers defensive coordinator Steve Wilks, who has a connection to Dave Gettleman. Gettleman, who was the Panthers general manager from 2013-16, was hired to the same post for the Giants on Thursday.


With the Patriots on a bye before their playoff game, the Giants are expected to travel to Foxborough, Mass., to interview McDaniels and Patricia.


--After parting ways with head coach Pagano, the Indianapolis Colts were granted permission to speak with Houston Texans defensive coordinator Mike Vrabel, according to a report by Sports Illustrated on Monday.


ESPN also reported the Colts requested to meet with New England Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels.


Carolina Panthers defensive coordinator Steve Wilks, who is a first-year coordinator, also was requested by the team for an interview.


Colts GM Chris Ballard said that previous head-coaching experience is not a requirement for the job. Pagano also did not possess any experience as a head coach when the Colts hired him on Jan. 25, 2012.

--Linebacker James Harrison made his New England debut with 27 defensive snaps in the season finale against the Jets less than a week after he signed with the Patriots.


Harrison notched five tackles, including a pair of sacks -- one a forced fumble -- on the final two snaps of the 26-6 win.

--General manager Ryan Pace received a two-year contract extension through the 2021 season from the Chicago Bears.


Pace's extension comes on the heels of the Bears firing coach John Fox at the end of a 5-11 season. The GM's previous contract was set to expire after the 2019 season.


The Bears' record with Pace in charge is 14-34. They've finished last in the NFC North each of the past four years.


Pace's next task will be to hire a new coach, who figures to have an offensive background. He said Monday the final hiring decision will be his and that he also will retain control of roster decisions.

--The Atlanta Falcons are the only team in the NFC that made the playoffs in 2016 and returned to the playoffs this season.


Seattle, Green Bay, Dallas, Detroit and the New York Giants did not repeat.


--After an 11-loss season, the Denver Broncos fired offensive line coach Jeff Davidson after one year.


Long-time receivers coach Tyke Tolbert and special teams coordinator Brock Olivo also were let go. Assistant defensive backs Johnnie Lynn, outside linebackers coach Fred Pagac and assistant head coach/running backs coach Eric Studesville also were let go.


Davidson, 50, joined the Broncos after the team ranked 23rd with 40 sacks allowed in 2016 and 19th with 39 sacks allowed in 2015.


--In the wake of head coach Arians announcing his retirement, Arizona requested interviews with New England defensive coordinator Patricia and Philadelphia Eagles defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz, according to a report by NFL.com.


The Cardinals are seeking a new coach for the first time since the conclusion of the 2012 season.


Patricia, 43, is in his sixth year as New England's defensive coordinator. He has been on the coaching staff under Bill Belichick since starting as an offensive assistant in 2004.


Patricia was New England's assistant offensive line coach in 2005, spent the next five seasons as the team's linebackers coach and was the Patriots' safeties coach in 2011 before moving into his current role.

--Buffalo Bills coach Sean McDermott kept the door open for running back LeSean McCoy to play in Sunday's wild-card game against the Jacksonville Jaguars.


"He's gonna have a chance, we'll see," McDermott said. "We're continuing to go through the medical evaluation on that. We got some good news this morning, so we'll just continue to monitor that."


The good news was X-rays were negative for McCoy, who was carted off the field with a right ankle injury in the third quarter of the Bills' 22-16 win over the Miami Dolphins on Sunday.

--Restricted free-agent cornerback Quinton Dunbar signed a multi-year contract extension with the Washington Redskins.


Terms of the deal were not disclosed by the franchise, but it was reported to be for three years and $10.5 million with $5.25 million guaranteed.


The 6-foot-2, 197-pound Dunbar started four games this past season and had 28 tackles, eight passes defensed and an interception, which came against Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz in Week 7.


In 40 career regular-season games, Dunbar has 65 tackles, 18 passes defensed, three interceptions, one sack and one fumble recovery.


--Baltimore Ravens defensive coordinator Dean Pees informed the team he is retiring.


Linebacker C.J. Mosley posted the news on Twitter while NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport reported on Monday that Pees will retire effective March 1.


The 68-year-old Pees has served on coach John Harbaugh's staff since 2010, working as linebackers coach before being elevated to defensive coordinator after Chuck Pagano departed to become the head coach of the Indianapolis Colts in 2012.


Pees helped guide the Ravens to a victory in Super Bowl XLVII and won two rings while working with New England Patriots from 2004-09. Pees spent most of the early part of his career in college, including as head coach at Kent State from 1998-2003.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL Overreactions: Eagles will be one-and-done in playoffs
January 2, 2018


PHILADELPHIA (AP) The Eagles will be one-and-done in the playoffs.


Nick Foles has struggled in two of his starts filling in for Carson Wentz and the offense has only scored 13 points in the last two games. Despite being the No. 1 seed, Philadelphia (13-3) might even be an underdog against the Saints, Panthers or Falcons in the divisional round.


Foles can't possibly outplay Drew Brees, Cam Newton or Matt Ryan in a shootout. The Eagles would be better off with Nate Sudfeld.


That's a double dose of overreactions to dissect.


Starting Sudfeld over Foles isn't happening. Sudfeld just made his NFL debut. Foles tossed four touchdown passes against the Giants only two weeks ago. The offense is in a funk but the starters played just one quarter in a 6-0 loss against the Cowboys. Perhaps they could've fixed their problems if they stayed in.


Foles isn't Wentz. That's obvious. But coach Doug Pederson isn't benching him for a guy who hadn't thrown a pass until Sunday.


The Eagles have the league's third-ranked rushing attack and a strong defense. They also have home-field advantage. Don't count them out just yet.


Here are other overreactions from Week 17:


OVERREACTION: Hue Jackson has what it takes to turn the Browns around after surviving an 0-16 season.


REALISTIC REACTION: His 1-31 record says otherwise.


---


OVERREACTION: The Rams are the team nobody wants to face in the playoffs.


REALISTIC REACTION: They're inexperienced and might not get past Atlanta in the wild-card round.


---


OVERREACTION: Jon Gruden will return to the Raiders and win that Super Bowl he failed to deliver his first time in Oakland.


REALISTIC REACTION: He has to accept the job first.


---


OVERREACTION: Josh McDaniels will win wherever he goes if he decides to leave New England.


REALISTIC REACTION: It's easier to win with Tom Brady than without him.


---


OVERREACTION: Kansas City got the best draw of wild-card weekend against Tennessee (9-7).


REALISTIC REACTION: The Chiefs went 5-6 after a 5-0 start. No opponent will be easy for them.


---


OVERREACTION: Nobody outside Buffalo and Jacksonville cares about the Bills-Jaguars wild-card game.


REALISTIC REACTION: This could be the best game of the weekend.


---


OVERREACTION: The Saints will struggle against the Panthers because it's hard to beat the same team three times in one season.


REALISTIC REACTION: Teams who've swept the regular-season series are 11-5 in those situations in the playoffs since 1990.

 

[CNOTES]

Out of playoffs strange place for Seahawks
January 1, 2018


RENTON, Wash. -- For the first time since 2011, the Seattle Seahawks are having to watch the playoffs after being eliminated on the final Sunday of the regular season.


The reasons for Seattle's slide are numerous.


The Seahawks' running game was woefully ineffective all season. They managed just one rushing touchdown from a running back all season and quarterback Russell Wilson finished as the team's leading rusher. The 240 rushing yards by Mike Davis was the second-least by a leading running back in franchise history, behind only Sherman Smith's 202 yards in 1982.


Wilson led the league with 34 touchdown passes this season. However, it was a necessity, as Seattle couldn't run the ball near an opponent's end zone.


Running backs gained only 17 yards on 34 carries inside an opponent's 20-yard line with no touchdowns and just one first down converted.


Seattle's defense was diminished due to the losses of cornerback Richard Sherman, safety Kam Chancellor and defensive end Cliff Avril to season-ending injuries.


While the group could manage to keep playing at a high level at times, further injuries to linebackers Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright and defensive end Michael Bennett took their toll even as those players continued to play.


Blair Walsh missing critical kicks and Seattle leading the league in penalties also proved problematic.


An offseason of uncertainty awaits for the Seahawks as several key pieces of their two Super Bowl teams may not return in 2018. Some changes could come to the coaching staff as well as the Seahawks look to correct their course.


WHAT WENT RIGHT: When healthy, Seattle's defense played at a level consistent with their dominance of recent seasons. Russell Wilson in the second half of games was lethal at times and carried Seattle's offensive scoring burden.


WHAT WENT WRONG: Injuries to key defenders, accuracy issues from kicker Blair Walsh and the complete lack of an effective rushing attack limited the team's season and took away any margin for error for Russell Wilson.


MOST DISAPPOINTING PLAYER: Defensive tackle Malik McDowell was badly injured in an ATV accident before the start of training camp and didn't play a snap all season.


MOST SURPRISING PLAYER: Chris Carson played in just four games this season, but the seventh-round pick was Seattle's most productive rusher all season after supplanting Thomas Rawls, Eddie Lacy and C.J. Prosise for the team's starting job.


ASSISTANT COACH ON THE RISE: Defensive coordinator Kris Richard managed to keep Seattle's defense playing at a reasonably high level despite the loss of three starters to season-ending injuries and an offense that rarely gave them large leads to work with.


--Wide receiver Doug Baldwin could have said much more regarding his thoughts on a season gone awry for the Seahawks.


Even though Baldwin couched his comments on Monday, he said plenty to express his frustration about the season and the issues the team had this year.


"When we go into a game or coming out of halftime, down 20-7, we have to take some responsibility for that," Baldwin said. "We can't put it all on the defense. We have to play better, simply put. We've been in those situations all year long. It's been the case for multiple years now, but we have always been able to lean on our defense to keep the opponent down, in terms of points.


"This year, like you said, we sustained a lot of injuries. Offenses got better. When you have that paired with not playing well offensively in the first half of games, we are always fighting against ourselves. We are always trying to dig ourselves out of a hole. Plus, we were terrible at penalties this year. That plays a big role as well."


Baldwin said he expects "several" changes this offseason, but he went out of his way to address criticism toward offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell.


"I can't say it," he said trying to be diplomatic. "My job is to protect the team right now and I'm doing a poor job of that right now. How can I say this? How can I say this? It's not play-calling. It's not play-calling. We go into a game knowing what the defense is going to give us, the situations that we're going to be in. We don't execute as a team. Offensively, that's what we've seen time and time again is that we do not execute the way that we should. And that's on us as players. You guys can blame Bev all you want to, but the truth of the matter is Bev is not the problem. Probably already said too much."


NOTES: RG Ethan Pocic sustained a knee injury in Sunday's season finale. He said the injury would not require surgery and he would be fine in the near future. ... LB Terence Garvin sustained a concussion in the final game of the season.

 

[CNOTES]

Jaguars look to revive running game
January 1, 2018


JACKSONVILLE, Fla. -- The Jacksonville Jaguars just cannot get their running game to where it was the first half of the season.


The Jaguars still finished the regular season as the NFL's top rushing team, averaging 141.4 yards per game, nearly 100 yards more than runner-up Dallas.


But it's a far cry from the 166.5 yards a game Jacksonville averaged the first eight games. The Jaguars averaged just 116.5 rushing yards over the final eight games, and ran for less than 100 yards in four of the final six games.


Rookie Leonard Fournette became the third Jaguars back to top the 1,000-yard mark, finishing with 1,040. The Jaguars were 4-1 when he rushed for more than 100 yards, and were 3-5 when he didn't.


In his last regular-season game, Fournette rushed for 69 yards on 19 carries, a 3.6 average per attempt. His longest run was just 9 yards.


"It's about winning," he said. "I don't care too much about no run game or whatever. It's about winning."


Quarterback Blake Bortles knows the importance of the running game.


"We've got to keep working on finding ways to run the ball, working on creating holes for our backs and giving them an opportunity to go get some yards," Bortles said. "I thought Leonard ran hard today for what he had. We've got to stay with it and continue to try and find it and come up with different ways to create some lanes for him to go."


--The best news for the Jaguars coming out of Sunday's loss was that they did not suffer any significant injuries.


The only player who missed any time in the game was safety Barry Church, who went out with a hamstring issue, but later returned.


Three injured starters sat out the game, but there is a good chance all three -- defensive tackle Abry Jones, left tackle Cam Robinson and wide receiver Marqise Lee -- will play Sunday.


"I think there's a good opportunity for that," head coach Doug Marrone said.


Lee missed the past two games, but still leads the Jaguars in receptions (56) and is second in receiving yards (702).


"That will help," Marrone said of Lee's possible return.


--The Jaguars' defense could not be blamed for Sunday's loss.


Three times Tennessee started drives inside Jaguars territory, but only managed a pair of field goals in those drives.


The defense also came through with Jacksonville's only touchdown of the game when defensive end Yannick Ngakoue grabbed a Titans fumble and returned it 67 yards for his first NFL touchdown and the Jaguars' NFL-high seventh defensive touchdown this year.


Ngakoue's fumble recovery was the Jaguars' 33rd takeaway of the season, the most in franchise history.


Even though the Jaguars held the Titans to just 232 total yards, the Jacksonville players weren't satisfied with their total effort after forcing just one turnover.


"We've got to get those takeaways," safety Barry Church said. "In order for us to get wins and put our offense in better position, we have to be able to take the ball away. We got the one, but we need to be able to force more."


The Jaguars committed four turnovers and produced just one Sunday, one week after committing three and forcing one in a loss to the 49ers.


--After Sunday's game ended, punches flew between Titans Pro-Bowl defensive lineman Jurrell Casey and backup Jaguars linebackers Blair Brown and Donald Payne. Casey had made some comments during the week about which team was actually "King of the South."


"We didn't want their offense to score at all. And it looks like that's what happened. It looks like that's what happened. Sorry. At the beginning of the week, I was talking about that," Casey said. "King of the South? King of the South? Sounds great, but gotta be able to beat us. Jacksonville didn't play great today. Appreciate the turnovers. Helped us out a lot."


NOTES: WR Allen Hurns returned to action on Sunday after missing six consecutive games due to an ankle injury suffered in Week 10 against the L.A. Chargers. Hurns caught three passes for 38 yards. ... WR Keelan Cole had his back-to-back streak of 100 yards in receptions end on Sunday when he was held to 33 yards on four catches. He led the team in receiving yards this year with 748. ... LT Josh Wells started his fourth game of the season when he filled in for the injured Cam Robinson at left tackle.... DT Marcell Dareus got his first start of the season, and he was strong in clogging the middle and keeping the Titans' Derrick Henry at bay. ... DT Eli Ankou was active for the first time since Week 9 against Cincinnati. Ankou had two tackles including a sack. ... --K Josh Lambo converted from 41 yards out and has made 19 of 20 field goal attempts this season. His .950 percentage is a team record (minimum 10 attempts). ... CB Aaron Colvin scooped up the Titans' blocked extra point, the second week in a row Colvin has grabbed a blocked PAT. Last week against San Francisco he took the errant kick all the way back for two points. This time Colvin was caught by Tennessee kicker Ryan Succop. ... RB Chris Ivory was one of the Jaguars' seven designated inactive players for Sunday's game even though Ivory was healthy. A week ago, Ivory played in the game against San Francisco, but did not have any carries. A week before that, he carried a team-high 17 times (for 42 yards) against Houston.

 

[CNOTES]

Jaguars must forget two-game losing streak
January 1, 2018


JACKSONVILLE, Fla. -- For the second straight week, a Jacksonville Jaguars loss was accompanied by what could be perceived as good news.


A week ago, the loss to San Francisco was softened by the news that Tennessee had lost to the Rams, thus giving the Jaguars the AFC South title.


On Sunday, the Jaguars lost to the Titans for the second time this season. However, Jacksonville was spared a third game against the Titans in the opening round of the playoffs when Cincinnati beat Baltimore on Sunday, knocking the Ravens out of the playoffs and giving the No. 6 AFC seed to Buffalo. As a result, the Jaguars will host the Bills on Sunday instead of a Tennessee team that has given the Jaguars problems.


By winning the AFC South, the Jaguars will host a playoff game for the first time since January 23, 2000 when they fell to the Titans in the AFC Championship game.


The Jaguars are returning to the playoffs for the first time since 2007, snapping a nine-season playoff drought that was tied for the fourth-longest in the NFL entering 2017.


The Jaguars are 5-6 in their playoff history.


The Jaguars' immediate problem is trying to put their season-ending two-game losing streak behind them.


Last week, Jaguars players and coaches talked about how important it was to beat the Titans. Now they have to deal with the inability to do so.


"Every game matters, but once we get out of 48 hours -- Monday or Tuesday -- this game doesn't matter," linebacker Myles Jack said. "We've got the playoffs, and that's the most important thing. This will only make guys madder and more excited to play. I think this will bring the hunger out of us. It's good timing."


Added quarterback Blake Bortles, "I think we'll be fine."


Even head coach Doug Marrone put a positive spin on the Jaguars' plight.


"I just think we have been on the road," Marrone said after Sunday's loss in Nashville. "This is the first time that we had this adversity, we've lost two games in a row. But, I think, just like I told the team, the good part about this is we're going home. Whenever you have adversity in life, in what you do, there is always that comfort in going home."


The atmosphere for the Jaguars' first postseason game in 10 years should be different from the two away-game defeats.


"This is the playoffs," defensive end Calais Campbell said. "This is what we work hard for. We're AFC South champs. The opportunity is in front of us. A home playoff game? I can't wait."


Buffalo might be without its leading rusher, LeSean McCoy, who suffered an injured ankle on Sunday in the win over Miami. Quarterback Tyrod Taylor may be asked to carry the offense.


The Jaguars will also have the benefit of a sellout crowd of nearly 70,000 people.


REPORT CARD VS. TITANS


--PASSING OFFENSE: D -- Blake Bortles went from a career-high 382 passing yards a week ago, to a career-low 33.7 passer rating against the Titans. He was 15-of-34 passing (44.1 percent) and the 158 passing yards marked the sixth time this season he was limited to 160 or fewer yards. Bortles also threw two more interceptions, giving him five in the last two games after throwing just eight picks in the first 14 games. Jaguars' receivers dropped several passes, including what would have been a touchdown catch by Dede Westbrook.


--RUSHING OFFENSE: C -- It was another sub 100-yard effort by the Jaguars, and it's becoming a trend. The Jaguars finished with just 83 yards on the ground with running backs Leonard Fournette and T.J. Yeldon combining for 74 yards in 27 attempts, 2.7 yards per try. Once again, the offensive line couldn't move defenders to open holes. No running play gained more than 9 yards.

--PASS DEFENSE: A -- Take away the screen pass to Derrick Henry that went for 66 yards, and the pass defense was exceptional. The Titans managed only another 50 passing yards. Holding Tennessee to 116 yards through the air cemented the Jaguars' No. 1 ranking as the league's best against the pass.

--RUSH DEFENSE: B-plus -- The Jaguars knew they had to stop Derrick Henry to have any chance. In the first meeting, Henry bashed the Jags' defense for 91 rushing yards in 14 carries. In Henry's first 14 carries in Sunday's game, he had a total of 17 yards. He finished with just 51 yards on a career-high 28 attempts, less than 2 yards a carry. However, the Jaguars allowed Mariota to gain 60 yards in 10 scrambles.

--SPECIAL TEAMS: D-minus -- The good news is that the Jaguars blocked an extra point for the second game in a row. Josh Lambo also came through with another field goal. There was plenty of bad news, however. Punt returner Jaydon Mickens fumbled two punts, one of which was recovered by the Titans and led to a field goal. Mickens was also called for a 15-yard penalty, and the Jaguars were penalized for having 12 men on the field on a punt.


--COACHING: C -- The coaches weren't responsible for Dede Westbrook dropping a touchdown pass in the end zone, or for the pair of miscues on punt returns by first-year player Jaydon Mickens, or for Keelan Cole's fumble that led to another Tennessee field goal. Head coach Doug Marrone made the right call in playing his regulars. But he mistakenly challenged a Titans 7-yard pass completion in the first quarter. The biggest coaching blunder was having 12 players on the field on a Jaguars punt that was downed at the 3-yard line. The re-punt rolled into the end zone.

 

[CNOTES]

Jags' Marrone happy for Bills, but won't delve into odd exit
January 1, 2018


JACKSONVILLE, Fla. (AP) Doug Marrone's past and present are colliding in the playoffs.


Marrone understands it's one of the main story lines heading into Jacksonville's AFC wild-card game against Buffalo (9-7), where he spent two seasons (2013-14) before walking away with $4 million thanks to an uncommon opt-out clause in his contract.


He knows he can't elude the topic. He just doesn't want to entertain it.


''What's past is past,'' Marrone said Monday. ''I'll tell you guys the truth. My goal and my function - and I'm going to shoot everyone straight - this stuff happened so long ago, OK? There's obviously been a lot of stuff out there. That stuff is done. It's over. I can't put it any simpler than that.


''So I'm not going to take away my primary responsibility to look back on a situation that occurred, what, three years ago.''


Marrone led Buffalo to its first winning record (9-7) in a decade in 2014 and then abruptly quit a few days after the end of the regular season. His contract gave him a small window to walk away with the significant payout.


His decision stunned players, assistant coaches, management, owners and fans.


There were reports Marrone was unsure about the direction of the franchise under new ownership and believed he would land an open job with Atlanta, Chicago, the New York Jets or San Francisco. He was considered the front-runner for the Jets job until the New York Daily News ran a column citing unnamed people saying Marrone was a control freak and a phony who belittled his staff.


At the NFL Combine last year, Marrone acknowledged he made a mistake by leaving Buffalo and said he had relayed that to Bills co-owner Terry Pegula.


''He knows how I feel about it,'' Marrone said then. ''Obviously, I'll keep that conversation private, but yes, I would say absolutely you learn from that and that's one of the mistakes you wish you can go back and do over and you just wish you had more time.


''I think when I look at it, I look at myself, is that I wish I could've communicated things better at that time.''


Marrone went 15-17 in Buffalo and presumably quit because of uncertainty over potential organizational changes. His decision didn't sit well with Bills fans, who felt betrayed because Marrone seemingly had the franchise on the verge of ending its lengthy playoff drought.


Marrone reportedly had concerns about working with then-general manager Doug Whaley. They appeared to clash over personnel decisions, particularly at quarterback. Marrone benched first-round draft pick EJ Manuel late in 2014 and replaced him with veteran Kyle Orton.


Orton retired a day after Buffalo's season finale in 2014, and Marrone said he never saw it coming.


Marrone politely declined to look back Monday.


''If I do that, then I shouldn't be the coach of the Jacksonville Jaguars,'' he said. ''My job is to make sure that I do the best job for this team. ... I'm happy for their fans and I'm happy for the organization, as well as I am for the other 11 teams, or 10 teams that are in it.


''But my focus is on our fans, our team, and where we want to go. It's going to be a week of people trying to pull that apart, and I'm not going to let that happen because of what my job is.''


Marrone landed in Jacksonville as the team's offensive line coach. He spent two years under Gus Bradley and was named interim coach for the final two games of the 2016 season. Marrone got the job full time last January and meshed seamlessly with decision-maker Tom Coughlin and general manager Dave Caldwell.


He has the Jaguars (10-6) in the playoffs for the first time since the 2007 season. They are hosting a postseason game for the first time since 1999, which is also the last time Buffalo made the playoffs.


''You go back and it's always people make stuff bigger than it is,'' Marrone said. ''My job is to coach this team; it's plain and simple.''

 

[CNOTES]

Reid knows Titans will be formidable foe
January 1, 2018


KANSAS CITY, Mo. -- A familiar foe returns to Kansas City next weekend with the Tennessee Titans coming to Arrowhead Stadium to take on head coach Andy Reid's AFC West-champion Chiefs in the wild-card playoff round kicking off Saturday afternoon.


"We had a chance to play them last year and they've got a couple of new people there," Reid said. "It's an active defense. Their offense is explosive, they've got good runners, good receivers and a good quarterback. Offensive line is tough. They've got a good football team worthy of being in that position."


The Titans brought a 7-6 record to Kansas City in Week 15 of the 2016 season to take on the Chiefs (10-3). Wide receiver Tyreek Hill ran 68 yards out of the backfield for a touchdown and quarterback Alex Smith scrambled for another score, putting the Chiefs up 14-0 in the first quarter.


The Chiefs carried a 17-7 lead into the fourth quarter, but Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota led three scoring drives in the final 12 minutes, with kicker Ryan Succop booting a 53-yard field goal to send Tennessee to a stunning 19-17 upset victory.


Smith finished the game with a pedestrian 15-of-28 passing line for 163 yards. He threw an end-zone interception from the Tennessee 7-yard line midway through the third quarter. That ended a potential scoring drive that likely would have given Kansas City the win.


The Titans have stifled Smith in three matchups during his five seasons in Kansas City. The Chiefs won only one of those three games, with Smith completing just 53 percent of his passes with one touchdown and five interceptions for a passer rating of just 54.0.


Reid doesn't believe Smith's struggles against the Titans mean much heading into this postseason matchup.


"I know last time he started off like gangbusters with a big shot to (former wide receiver) Jeremy (Maclin) and so on, had a big run with Tyreek," Reid said.


"Then things were just kind of average after that. I think it's just by coincidence."


Reid maintains confidence this year's edition of the Chiefs can score when needed, including against a talented Titans defense.


"I'm confident in them," Reid said of his offense. "There's good chemistry there. But every week's important that you get yourself prepared and ready to go. That's where we're at and what we need to do."


REPORT CARD VS. BRONCOS


--PASSING OFFENSE: B-plus - The Chiefs designed a solid passing game plan against the Broncos and rookie Patrick Mahomes executed it well. Mahomes came out hot early, sailing a throw for an interception on his second drive. The rookie showed the ability to make the spectacular play with his rifle arm, but also showed a decision-making process that must improve. This game justifies head coach Andy Reid's faith in Mahomes for the future, but it also underscores why the Chiefs belong to Alex Smith for now.

--RUSHING OFFENSE: A - How the Chiefs mustered 110 yards on the ground with a makeshift offensive line and a fullback leading the charge might be one of the more unsung stories of the 2017 season. Rookie Kareem Hunt received just one carry, but that 35-yard touchdown romp gave him the league's rushing title. The team planned to lean on backups to rest Hunt, but with Charcandrick West out with the flu and Akeem Hunt twisting an ankle, that left the job to fullback Anthony Sherman. Sherman rushed 14 times for 40 yards - he entered the day with six carries for 14 yards in the first 108 games of his career. A yeoman's effort in a win.


--PASS DEFENSE: A-minus - The Chiefs have struggled at times mounting a pass rush, but their youth movement had no trouble putting heat on Broncos QB Paxton Lynch all afternoon. The Chiefs collected five sacks, including three total from rookie linebackers Tanoh Kpassagnon and Ukeme Eligwe. Kansas City might need to find a way to work its young speed rushers into the pass rush during the postseason. The Chiefs win when they force turnovers, and two interceptions and a strip-sack of Lynch proved key to the win.


--RUSH DEFENSE: B-minus - Tackling loomed as an issue at times among the Chiefs' reserve defenders, but they cracked down in the red zone, keeping the Broncos from running effectively near the goal line. The Broncos stopped Kansas City's streak of three straight games holding opponents under 100 yards rushing, but the effort of the team's backups still shows a marked improvement from earlier in the season when the Chiefs couldn't stop anyone on the ground.


--SPECIAL TEAMS: A - Harrison Butker's game-winning field goal capped off a Cinderella season for the rookie kicker. He finishes with an NFL rookie-record 38 field goals for the season. Dustin Colquitt netted 46 yards per punt on five kicks, including a booming 77-yard punt as the first half drew to a close that prevented the Broncos from a potential scoring opportunity. The Chiefs still haven't broken a big play in the kick-return game this season, but teams should be wary of special teams coordinator Dave Toub's squad going into the playoffs.

--COACHING: A - Andy Reid admitted to just one mistake, taking Mahomes out of the game and putting in third-string quarterback Tyler Bray in the fourth quarter. But Reid quickly corrected course, bringing Mahomes back in for the game-winning 2-minute drive. Reid and his staff built a winning game plan for his reserve squad, and the Chiefs take a four-game winning streak into the postseason. Reid assigned himself the blame for the team's 1-6 midseason slump, but now he deserves the credit for sending the Chiefs heading in the right direction into the postseason.