Cnotes 2017 NFL Trends/Stats/News/Picks Thru The Super Bowl

[CNOTES]

Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack


Top 6 picks in Week 16 in the Westgate Super Contest:


6) Cincinnati Bengals, +4.5 (558)


5) Tennessee Titans, +6.5 (559)


4) Dallas Cowboys, -4.5 (606)


3) New Orleans Saints, -5.5 (671)


2) Jacksonville Jaguars, -4.5 (694)


1) Los Angeles Rams, -6.5 (766)


Record of top 6 picks each week: 44-43-3

 

[CNOTES]

NFL


Week 16


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Sunday NFL Betting Preview and Odds: Falcons at Saints
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Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints (-6, 52.5)


The Atlanta Falcons control their own destiny in the race for the NFC South title after holding off the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday for their fifth win in the last six games. The New Orleans Saints, who host the Falcons on Sunday, are a game up on Atlanta in the division and will clinch a playoff berth while moving one step closer to an NFC South title with a victory.


The NFC South could end up sending three teams to the playoffs along with the Carolina Panthers, and the Falcons brought themselves into this position by figuring out how to win tight games in the last two weeks, including a 20-17 triumph at home over New Orleans in Week 14. "We are right where we need to be at this time of the season," Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan told reporters. "Two games to go in the regular season, and we have to find a way to get back to work this week, try to improve and make sure that we play the best we are capable of playing (Sunday) to try and get a win." The Saints followed that loss to the Falcons with a 31-19 triumph over the New York Jets last week and are trying not to assign extra importance to this week's meeting. "There is not really emotion," wide receiver Michael Thomas told reporters. "There are going to be games that are probably more important than others, but at the end of the day they're all pretty much important."

TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX.

POWER RANKINGS: Falcons (-2) - Saints (-4) + home field (-3) = Saints -5.

LINE HISTORY: The Saints opened as 5.5-point home dogs at most shops, money coming in on New Orleans bumped up slightly to -6. The total hit the betting board at 52.5 and remains at that number heading into the weekend.

WEATHER REPORT: Dome

INJURY REPORT:


Falcons - RB Tevin Coleman (Probable, Concussion), WR Julio Jones (Probable, Ankle), WR Mohamed Sanu (Probable, Knee), G Andy Levitre (Questionable, Tricep), LB Sean Weatherspoon (Questionable, Illness).


Saints - G Larry Warford (Probable, Concussion), WR Ted Ginn (Probable, Ribs), TE Garrett Griffin (Questionable, Foot), DB Justin Harden (Questionable, Foot), TE Josh Hill (Questionable, Shoulder), C Senio Kelemete (Questionable, Knee), OT Andrus Peat (Questionable, Groin), DE Trey Hendrickson (Out, Ankle), TE Michael Hoomanawanui (Out, Concussion), S Kenny Vaccaro (I-R, Wrist), LB A.J. Klein (I-R, Groin).

ABOUT THE FALCONS (9-5 SU, 6-8 ATS, 5-9 O/U): Atlanta leaned on its rushing attack in a 24-21 win over the Buccaneers on Monday as Devonta Freeman ran for a season-high 126 yards and a touchdown. Freeman rushed for 91 yards and a score in the win over the Saints, helping to make up for a three-interception performance from Ryan. The reigning NFL MVP is up to 3,490 yards and 18 TDs on the season but is already at 11 interceptions - four more than his total from last season - and was left off the Pro Bowl rosters announced on Tuesday.

ABOUT THE SAINTS (10-4 SU, 8-6 ATS, 8-6 O/U): New Orleans became the first team in 42 years to have two running backs make the Pro Bowl when Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara were announced as two of the team's six representatives. The two are on pace to become the first duo in NFL history to each go over 1,500 yards from scrimmage and are already at a combined 2,756 yards from scrimmage and 23 touchdowns. Neither back managed 100 yards from scrimmage in the Week 14 loss to the Falcons, and Kamara totaled just 27 yards on four touches before leaving the contest with a concussion.

TRENDS:


* Falcons are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game.


* Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.


* Over is 3-0-1 in Falcons last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.


* Over is 6-0-1 in Saints last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.


* Underdog is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the home favorite Saints at a rate of 55 percent and the Over is getting 70 percent of the totals action.




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[CNOTES]

NFL


Week 16


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Sunday NFL Betting Preview and Odds: Seahawks at Cowboys
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Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys (-5, 47)


Ezekiel Elliott is back from a six-game suspension as the Dallas Cowboys look to remain in the playoff hunt when they host the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday. The star running back was disciplined for an alleged domestic violence incident after racking up 783 rushing yards through the first eight contests of the season.


Elliott returns at a time when the Cowboys could be eliminated from the NFC wild-card race - a loss to Seattle and a victory by Atlanta would end the playoff pursuit. Elliott figures to provide a boost as he is well-rested and not experiencing the bumps and bruises most NFL running backs feel in late December. "He's capable of doing anything we'd ask him to do at the running back position," Dallas coach Jason Garrett told reporters. "We'll work through this week and see what he's able to do in this game plan." The Seahawks are aiming to bounce back from the 42-7 beating they suffered against the Los Angeles Rams and are in the same predicament as the Cowboys - a loss on Sunday combined with a victory by Atlanta would seal their fate.

TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX.

POWER RANKINGS: Seahawks (-1) - Cowboys (-1) + home field (-3) = Cowboys -3.

LINE HISTORY: The Saints opened as 5.5-point home dogs at most shops, money coming in on New Orleans bumped up slightly to -6. The total hit the betting board at 52.5 and remains at that number heading into the weekend.

WEATHER REPORT: Dome

INJURY REPORT:


Seahawks - DE Michael Bennett (Probable, Knee), TE Jimmy Graham (Probable, Knee), LB K.J. Wright (Probable, Concussion), LB Bobby Wagner (Probable, Hamstring), S Bradley McDougald (Questionable, Knee), DT Nazair Jones (Questionable, Ankle), CB Justin Coleman (Questionable, Chest), TE Nick Vannett (Questionable, Shoulder), LB D.J. Alexander (Questionable, Concussion), CB Deshawn Shead (Questionable, Knee), RB Chris Carson (Out, Knee), S Kam Chancellor (I-R, Neck), G Day Aboushi (I-R, Shoulder).


Cowboys - LB Justin Durant (Probable, Concussion), LB Anthony Hitchens (Probable, Knee), DE Demarcus Lawrence (Probable, Back), DT Richard Ash (Questionable, Shoulder), OT Le'El Collins (Questionable, Back), DE Benson Mayowa (Questionable, Back), DT Maliek Collins (Questionable, Foot), LB Sean Lee (Questionable, Hamstring), CB Orlando Scandrick (Questionable, Back), WR Brice Butler (Questionable, Foot), OT Tyron Smith (Doubtful, Knee), DL David Irving (Out, Concussion).

ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (8-6 SU, 5-8-1 ATS, 6-8 O/U): Seattle has allowed 72 points while losing its last two games, and the horrific showing against the Rams placed the team in a rare must-win situation regarding both its NFC West and wild-card aspirations. "If anybody likes adversity, this football team does, in the sense that we can handle adversity," quarterback Russell Wilson, who has thrown 30 touchdown passes, told reporters. "We can handle the circumstances that we are in. Reality is, we can't determine what everybody else does. All we can do is what we can control, and that's playing great football." The defense has been ravaged by injuries and the hope is that Pro Bowl middle linebacker Bobby Wagner (hamstring) and outside linebacker K.J. Wright (concussion) will be close to full strength.

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (8-6 SU, 7-6-1 ATS, 6-8 O/U): Elliott had 26 or more carries in each of his final four games prior to the suspension, and offensive coordinator Scott Linehan indicated he plans another heavy load for the 22-year-old. Elliott's presence should help second-year quarterback Dak Prescott (2,964 yards, 21 touchdowns), who has thrown 11 interceptions this season after being picked off just four times last year. Pro Bowl defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence is tied for third in the NFL with 13.5 sacks, while star linebacker Sean Lee has recorded 28 tackles and one interception over the last two games after returning from a hamstring injury.

TRENDS:


* Cowboys are 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.


* Under is 4-1 in Seahawks last 5 road games.


* Under is 6-1 in Cowboys last 7 games overall.


* Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.


* Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Dallas.

CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the road dog Seahawks at a rate of 53 percent and the Over is getting 52 percent of the totals action.

 

[CNOTES]

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 24
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


ATL at NO 01:00 PM
ATL +5.5
U 52.0


LAR at TEN 01:00 PM
TEN +5.5
U 46.0


CLE at CHI 01:00 PM
CHI -6.0
O 36.5


LAC at NYJ 01:00 PM
NYJ +7.0
U 42.5


DET at CIN 01:00 PM
CIN +3.5
O 43.5


BUF at NE 01:00 PM
BUF +11.0
O 47.5


DEN at WAS 01:00 PM
WAS -3.0
U 39.0


MIA at KC 01:00 PM
MIA +11.0
U 43.5


TB at CAR 01:00 PM
TB +10.0
O 46.5


--------------------------


JAC at SF 04:05 PM
JAC -4.0
O 43.0


SEA at DAL 04:25 PM
DAL -4.0
O 47.0


NYG at ARI 04:25 PM
NYG +3.0
U 39.0

 

[CNOTES]

NFL roundup: Gurley, Rams clinch NFC West title
December 24, 2017


NASHVILLE, Tenn. -- Los Angeles Rams running back Todd Gurley became the first player in 31 years to rush for 100-plus yards and produce 150-plus receiving yards in a single game, scoring two touchdowns as Los Angeles clinched the NFC West title with a 27-23 win over the Tennessee Titans on Sunday.


Gurley ran 21 times for 115 yards while catching 10 passes for 158 yards and touchdowns of 3 and 80 yards. The last player to pull off the 100-150 double was Herschel Walker of the Dallas Cowboys in 1986.


Los Angeles (11-4) clinched its first division title since 2003 and its first playoff berth since 2004. Tennessee (8-7) lost its third straight game, officially sealing the AFC South title for Jacksonville. The Titans can still wrap up a playoff spot next week by beating Jacksonville.


Saints 23, Falcons 13


NEW ORLEANS -- Drew Brees threw a 54-yard touchdown pass to Ted Ginn Jr., and Mark Ingram II ran 26 yards for a score to power New Orleans to a playoff-clinching victory over Atlanta.


The Saints (11-4) earned the playoff berth after missing the postseason during the past three 7-9 seasons. The Falcons, who had won five of their previous six games by averaging 24.7 points a game, failed to score a touchdown in the first 57 minutes and fell to 9-6.


New Orleans can win the NFC South with a victory at Tampa Bay next week or a Carolina loss at Atlanta. The Panthers are also 11-4, but the Saints hold the tiebreaker based on their sweep of the regular-season series.


Panthers 22, Buccaneers 19


CHARLOTTE, N.C. -- Cam Newton picked up his own bobbled snap and ran for a 2-yard touchdown with 35 seconds left, lifting Carolina to a playoff-clinching victory against Tampa Bay.


Carolina converted a fourth down on the play prior to the touchdown, needing 1 yard after the Buccaneers (4-11) jumped offside. Jonathan Stewart got the yard, setting up Newton's game-winning run. It was a 10-play, 59-yard drive.


The Panthers (11-4) remain tied with the Saints for first place in the NFC South. Carolina would hold a wild-card spot in the playoffs unless it wins next week at Atlanta while the Saints lose at Tampa Bay.


Patriots 37, Bills 16

FOXBOROUGH, Mass. -- New England moved a step closer to wrapping up the top seed in the AFC playoffs with a win over Buffalo.


While the Patriots (12-3) won for the 10th time in 11 games, the Bills (8-7) were dealt a serious blow in their bid to end a 17-year playoff drought. Tom Brady finished 21 of 28 for 224 yards with two touchdown passes and one interception that was returned for a score.


Patriots running back Mike Gillislee snapped a 16-16 tie with a 1-yard run late in the third quarter, and Dion Lewis ran for a career-high 129 yards and a touchdown. Lewis also scored on a nifty 12-yard screen pass to help break the game open in the fourth.

Seahawks 21, Cowboys 12


ARLINGTON, Texas -- The Seattle defense took the return of Dallas star running back Ezekiel Elliott in stride as the Seahawks clamped down and paved the way to victory.


Seattle scored 21 points off Dallas turnovers and kept the Cowboys out of the end zone, keeping the Seahawks' playoff hopes alive as they are still in the hunt for an NFC wild-card berth.


The Cowboys (8-7) squandered Elliott's return by losing the turnover battle 3-0, and they were eliminated from playoff contention. Elliott gained 97 yards on 24 carries.


Chargers 14, Jets 7


EAST RUTHERFORD, N.J. -- Bidding to become only the second team since the 1970 merger to make the playoffs after an 0-4 start, Los Angeles beat New York Jets to stay alive in the postseason chase.


The Chargers (8-7) looked shaky against the Jets (5-10), but Los Angeles quarterback Philip Rivers made clutch passes, running back Melvin Gordon carved up New York's front seven, and the defense, despite giving up long runs to Bilal Powell, bent but did not break.


Gordon's 1-yard touchdown run late in the third quarter, capping an eight-play, 75-yard drive, broke a 7-7 tie. Gordon gained 81 yards on 19 carries.

Bears 20, Browns 3


CHICAGO -- Jordan Howard rushed for two touchdowns, rookie quarterback Mitchell Trubisky ran for one, and Chicago kept Cleveland winless.


If the Browns (0-15) lose next week's finale at Pittsburgh, they would join the 2008 Detroit Lions as the only NFL teams to go 0-16. With the Sunday defeat to the Bears (5-10), Cleveland secured the No. 1 pick in the 2018 NFL Draft.


Howard's touchdowns were his eighth and ninth this season, giving the second-year running back four in his past three games.


Redskins 27, Broncos 11

LANDOVER, Md. -- Kirk Cousins threw three touchdown passes, and the Redskins' defense turned in another stellar effort as Washington beat Denver.


Cousins completed 19 of 37 passes for 299 yards against the NFL's top-ranked defense in terms of yardage allowed. He was intercepted once. Ryan Kerrigan had two sacks for Washington (7-8).


Quarterback Brock Osweiler got the start and was largely ineffective, completing 22 of 38 passes for 193 yards, with an interception and a lost fumble for Denver (5-10). He was sacked four times.


Chiefs 29, Dolphins 13


KANSAS CITY, Mo. -- Alex Smith surpassed the 4,000-yard passing mark for the first time in his 12-year career as Kansas City clinched back-to-back AFC West titles for the first time in franchise history.


Smith delivered again for the Chief (9-6) in the best season of his career, completing 25 of 39 passes for 304 yards and a touchdown. With the game tied at 3-all, Smith gave the Chiefs a lead they would not relinquish when he found wide receiver Tyreek Hill on a third-and-15 pass deep down the middle for a 52-yard gain. That set up a 9-yard touchdown pass from Smith to tight end Travis Kelce for a 10-3 lead.


Jakeem Grant caught four passes for 107 yards and a touchdown for Miami (6-9).


Bengals 26, Lions 17


CINCINNATI -- Giovani Bernard rushed for 116 yards on 23 carries and a touchdown as Cincinnati eliminated Detroit playoff contention.


Detroit (8-7) needed a win and plenty of help to make the postseason, but fell flat against the struggling Bengals (6-9).


Cincinnati quarterback Andy Dalton, who had a 27.3 passer rating last week, the second-lowest of his career, passed for 238 yards and a touchdown on Sunday.


49ers 44, Jaguars 33


SANTA CLARA, Calif. -- Jimmy Garoppolo threw for 242 yards and two touchdowns, leading San Francisco to its fourth consecutive victory.


Jacksonville clinched its first-ever AFC South crown with around six minutes left in the first quarter when the Rams defeated Tennessee. The division title is the Jaguars' first since 1999, when Jacksonville won the AFC Central.


The 49ers set a season high for points scored and the Jaguars a season high for points allowed. Jacksonville quarterback Blake Bortles completed 32 of 50 passes for 382 yards and two touchdowns with three interceptions, including a 50-yard pick-six by Dontae Johnson.


Cardinals 23, Giants 0


GLENDALE, Ariz. -- Larry Fitzgerald was a one-man playmaking machine during Arizona's shutout of New York.


Fitzgerald, who hasn't determined if he will come back for a 15th season despite recently agreeing to a one-year contract extension through 2018, continued to show no signs of slowing down at age 34. In addition to catching a game-high nine passes for 119 yards and a touchdown, Fitzgerald also completed his first NFL pass on an end-around option, hitting Jaron Brown for a 21-yard gain.


Drew Stanton threw two touchdown passes and safety Antoine Bethea intercepted Giants quarterback Eli Manning twice as Arizona (7-8) helped send New York (2-13) to its fifth consecutive loss.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL notebook: Titans RB Murray injures knee
December 24, 2017


Tennessee Titans running back DeMarco Murray injured his right knee during Sunday's 27-23 loss to the Los Angeles Rams and could be done for the season.


Murray was hurt with 2:39 left in the contest. Initial reports indicate Murray sprained his lateral collateral ligament and will undergo an MRI exam on Monday.


Tennessee coach Mike Mularkey admitted after the game that the injury didn't look good. That means second-year pro Derrick Henry appears to be the starter in Week 17 against Jacksonville, with David Fluellen backing him up.


"I'm sure Derrick will be ready if DeMarco is out," Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota said.


--Several teams complained to the NFL last week that the Green Bay Packers violated the rules regarding injured reserve, and that the team should have to release two-time NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers as a result, ESPN reported.


Rodgers was activated off injured reserve from a broken collarbone and played last week against the Carolina Panthers. The 34-year-old exited the contest because he was "sore," according to Packers coach Mike McCarthy.


Green Bay announced its decision to place Rodgers back on injured reserve Tuesday, after the Packers had been eliminated from a potential postseason berth. Had the Atlanta Falcons lost to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday night, the Packers might have opted against shutting down Rodgers.


NFL rules stipulate that a player needs to have sustained a new injury that would sideline him at least six weeks to be placed on injured reserve. Should that not be the case, the team is obligated to release the player once he is healthy.


--Quarterback Drew Brees became the fastest quarterback in NFL history to surpass 70,000 career passing yards in the New Orleans Saints' victory against the Atlanta Falcons.


Brees joined Peyton Manning (71,940) and Brett Favre (71,838) as the lone quarterbacks to reach the milestone with a 12-yard screen pass to Mark Ingram during the first quarter of Sunday's game. Brees finished Sunday's victory with 70,200 yards and needs 1,741 yards to supplant Manning for the No. 1 spot.


The 38-year-old Brees, however, hit the mark in 248 career games. It took Manning 258 games and Favre 293 to reach 70,000.


Meanwhile, standout Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas (hamstring) was active and caught four passes for 66 yards. Thomas has 98 receptions on the season.


--Wide receiver Antonio Brown is not expected to be ready should the Pittsburgh Steelers play in the wild-card round of the playoffs, ESPN reported on Sunday.


Schefter said Brown likely will be in need of the extra week of healing as he deals with a partially torn calf muscle sustained last Sunday in a 27-24 loss against the New England Patriots.


Brown, who already has been ruled out of Monday's game against the Houston Texans, wrote on Twitter earlier this week that the injury is a "minor setback."


--Josh Rosen would rather play for the New York Giants as opposed to the Cleveland Browns, and the UCLA quarterback would be hesitant to come out in the 2018 NFL draft if he knew that the latter would select him with the No. 1 overall pick, ESPN reported on Sunday.


The winless Browns (0-15) secured the top overall pick with a loss to the Chicago Bears on Sunday


Rosen plans to talk with his parents after the Cactus Bowl for a "serious conversation" before making a final decision about his future. Cleveland owning the No. 1 overall pick could influence his decision, ESPN reported, citing a source familiar with the situation.


--Former Los Angeles Rams coach Jeff Fisher feels a strong connection to the franchise he coached for five years.


In fact, Fisher told The Midday 180 radio show in Nashville (Tenn.) that his legacy lives on in the Rams.


"I'm a huge fan of the Ram players," Fisher said. "They're basically -- I don't want to say my players, but I had a lot to do with that roster. Left them in pretty good shape. And Sean (McVay), as he's proven in this very short period of time, is an outstanding young coach. And he's got the offense rolling, which they needed."


Fisher, who was fired by the Rams with three games remaining in the 2016 season, also patted himself on the back with the team trading up to select Jared Goff with the first overall pick of the 2016 draft. Goff endured a difficult rookie season to bounce back with a strong 2017 campaign.


--The NFL's concussion protocol has been altered with late-season changes following recent incidents that have triggered investigations.


The changes were implemented last weekend, Dr. Allen Sills, the NFL's chief medical officer, told ESPN. Most notably, a central unaffiliated neurotrauma consultant (UNC) was stationed at the command center that has been used primarily for game-replay review, Sills said.


"We are constantly looking at the protocol and how it's applied and trying to get better," Sills said. "The process happens through the season."


An injury to Houston Texans quarterback Tom Savage on Dec. 10 as well as Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson's concussion protocol misstep in Week 10 that resulted in a $100,000 fine for the franchise were two incidents that fueled the investigation.


--New York Jets defensive end Muhammad Wilkerson was ruled inactive for the home loss against the Los Angeles Chargers, one week after being benched for showing up late to a team meeting.


Wilkerson may have played his last game in a Jets' uniform. The Jets likely will release the former Pro Bowl selection before March due to lack of performance and because his $16.75 million salary becomes fully guaranteed if he is on the roster for the third day of the 2018 league year.


The 28-year-old Wilkerson's contract is guaranteed for injury, thus the team would be responsible for the money if he were to sustain a serious injury, ESPN reported.

--Buffalo Bills running back Travaris Cadet was carted off the field late in the second quarter of the game against the New England Patriots with an apparent serious right ankle injury.


Cadet was tackled by New England Trey Flowers and was removed from the field minutes later, reportedly after an air cast was put on the ankle. Flowers walked away from the scene with his hands covering his helmet.


Also, Bills wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin (knee) played and caught five passes for 70 yards. Cornerback E.J. Gaines, however, was ruled inactive for the game with a knee injury.


New England running back James White (ankle) and wide receiver Chris Hogan (shoulder) were ruled inactive.


--New York Giants safety Landon Collins left the game against the Arizona Cardinals with a forearm injury.


The third-year pro from Alabama entered Sunday's game as the Giants' leading tackler with 98 total tackles. Collins missed most of last week's practice schedule with an ankle injury.


Earlier in the game, the Giants also lost tight end Evan Engram to a rib injury.

 

[CNOTES]

Books rebound in Week 16
December 24, 2017


The Las Vegas sports books got back on track with a winning Sunday in Week 16 NFL action, one week after getting beat up by the betting public when every favorite won outright. Favorites would go 6-5-1 against-the-spread with three of the underdogs winning outright. The public would end of being wrong collectively with popular favorites like the Rams, Panthers, Jaguars and Cowboys, just enough to ruin most parlays.


"It was a good day," said Station Casinos sports book director Jason McCormick. "Buccaneers cover was very good and also helped beat most teasers. The 49ers, Titans and Bears covering were also much needed. The Chargers was our biggest loss of the day."


Stations moved Chargers from -6.5 to -7 on Friday for their game at the Jets, and it landed 7 with a 14-7 win to keep their playoff hopes still alive. Most books got sided on this game because it was -6.5 everywhere at one point before being forced up, but the big damage it did was keep both sides alive on parlays and reducing the payout down. Most bettors laid -7 with this one.


The Panthers (-10) were on the verge of a bad home loss to the Buccaneers, but saved their best drive for last with Cam Newton leading the way in 22-19 win. William Hill had 70 percent of the tickets written on this game laying the points with Carolina.


The Jaguars and Rams have been real trendy plays lately because they win and cover almost every week. The Rams (-5.5) had covered seven of their last nine before Sunday's 27-23 win at Tennessee. The Jaguars (-4) had won seven of their last eight before losing 44-33 at red hot San Francisco. The 49ers have now won four straight with Jimmy Garopollo driving the ship. Sharps were on the 49ers, the public was on the Jags. Stations paid out +180 on the money-line.


Keep an eye on Jacksonville next week at Tennessee. They don't have anything to play for and if they rest players coming off a loss like this, it's bad for morale. This Jags squad led the NFL in scoring defense allowing just 14.9 points-per-game, and they just got 44 put on them by a team that started 1-10. Rest or rust?


"Decent day, but low handle," said CG Technology VP of risk management Jason Simbal. "We held just under a double-digit win percentage, but not surprisingly it's our lowest handle of the NFL season. The strip properties are very slow."


Apparently, bettors had some other priorities Sunday, which happened to be Christmas Eve. There was also no Sunday night game, so there was no third wave of action funneling through from those doubling up winnings or getting back the losses.


Simbal said their worst decision was the Cardinals and their best win turned out to be the 49ers. The Cardinals' 23-0 home win against the Giants was the final of 12 NFL games posted posted on Sunday so just about everything live was waiting for it to be posted. But Simbal said most of his risk was incurred just because of everyone betting against the Giants.


Another team the public have been lining up to bet against weekly has been the Browns. And they've been correct; just three covers in 14 games. But in Week 16, the public thought this was the week the Browns win their first game, or at least more than usual. Sunday morning the Westgate SuperBook dropped the Bears from -6.5 down to -5.5. William Hill books saw 53 of the tickets written on the game taking the Browns and 85 percent of the cash on the Browns. Snow even made an appearance to muck things up, but the Bears would win 20-3.


The Browns last chance at winning this season comes Sunday at Pittsburgh. The Steelers won the season opener at Cleveland, 21-18, but failed to cover the 10-point spread. Cleveland has now secured the overall No. 1 draft pick.


The Seahawks' 21-12 win at Dallas (-4.5) was a nice win for the house and the loss eliminated the Cowboys. Wynn Resorts paid closed the Seahawks money-line at +195. The other underdog to win outright was the Bengals stepping up at home to beat the Lions, 26-17. William Hill paid out on the Bengals money-line at +150. Sharps had pushed the Bengals from +4 to +3, but the public liked the Lions who were still in the playoff hunt.


The Under went 9-3 on the day.

 

[CNOTES]

Monday's Tip Sheet
December 24, 2017


Steelers (-9, 45) at Texans – 4:30 PM EST – NBC


LAST WEEK


In the overturned catch heard ‘round the world, the Steelers (11-3 SU, 6-8 ATS) went from potentially having home-field advantage in the AFC playoffs to potentially receiving only a first-round bye. Ben Roethlisberger hooked up with tight end Jesse James on a touchdown in the final minute against New England, but the ruling was reversed and called an incomplete pass. Roethlisberger would eventually get intercepted in the end zone as the Steelers fell to the Patriots for the fifth straight time, 27-24.


The loss ended an eight-game winning streak for Mike Tomlin’s club, who has already clinched the AFC North title. To make matters worse, the Steelers also lost star wide receiver Antonio Brown to a calf injury in the first half, as he will be sidelined until the playoffs. Running back Le’Veon Bell rushed for 117 yards and a touchdown, marking his first 100-yard rushing game since Week 7 against Cincinnati. Pittsburgh failed to cover for the fourth consecutive game, while falling to 2-4 ATS in its past six home contests.


The Texans (4-10 SU, 7-7 ATS) were due to fall apart following the season-ending knee injury to rookie standout quarterback Deshaun Watson in late October. Houston has lost six of seven games since Watson’s injury, including a 45-7 rout at the hands of Jacksonville as 10 ½-point underdogs. In all six losses without Watson, the Texans have mustered 16 points or fewer, while posting seven points in a game for the third time this season.


Houston put up 186 yards of offense against a terrific Jacksonville team, who limited the Texans to 14 points in eight quarters. Quarterback T.J. Yates completed 12-of-31 passes for 128 yards, one touchdown, and an interception for Houston as he hooked up wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins for the lone Texans’ touchdown. Houston owns a 1-4 record inside the AFC South as the Texans scored 57 points against the Titans in Week 4, but compiled a total of 41 points in the four divisional defeats.


SERIES HISTORY


The Steelers and Texans are meeting for the sixth time ever as Pittsburgh owns a 3-2 edge. These clubs haven’t met since 2014 at Heinz Field as the Steelers rallied from a 13-0 deficit to beat the Texans, 30-23 to cash as three-point favorites. Roethlisberger threw for 265 yards and two touchdowns, while Bell racked up 145 all-purpose yards and a touchdown. Pittsburgh lost in its last visit to Houston in 2011 as four-point underdogs, 17-10.


TOTAL TALK


Pittsburgh and New England barely finished UNDER the total of 52 ½ last week, snapping a four-game OVER streak for the Steelers. However, the Steelers have gone 6-1 to the UNDER away from Heinz Field as the lone OVER occurred in a 23-20 win at Cincinnati on a 42 ½ total. Houston was riding a three-game UNDER streak prior to the OVER against Jacksonville last Sunday. The UNDER is 5-2 the past seven weeks for the Texans, while going 2-1 to the UNDER against AFC North competition.


KEY TREND


VegasInsider.com handicapper Vince Akins provides a solid UNDER trend on the visitors, “The Steelers are 0-9-1 OU since Jan 09, 2016 on the road in games with a total under 46.” Five of those UNDERS have hit this season, while holding four of those opponents to 20 points or fewer.


BOOKMAKER’S TAKE


Scott Cooley of BookMaker.eu gives his thoughts on where the money is going, “We’re currently looking at 75 percent of the tickets on the Steelers, but the handle is almost 50-50. The public obviously loves Pittsburgh while the wiseguys are siding with Houston. We know that this team always plays down to the competition and with little to play for, Houston feels like a live dog.”


Raiders at Eagles (-9 ½, 46 ½) – 8:30 PM EST – ESPN


LAST WEEK


Oakland (6-8 SU, 4-8-2 ATS) was eliminated from playoff contention following Kansas City’s victory over Miami on Sunday as the Raiders last made the postseason in consecutive years from 2000-02. The Raiders fell short against the Cowboys last Sunday, 20-17 as quarterback Derek Carr fumbled the ball in the final minutes when reaching out for the go-ahead touchdown, resulting in a touchback. When Oakland doesn’t score, they lose, as the Raiders dropped to 0-8 when scoring 17 points or fewer this season.


The Raiders pushed as three-point home underdogs, as Carr threw for 177 yards and two touchdowns to Michael Crabtree. However, Oakland suffered its first loss at the Coliseum since Week 6 against the Chargers, while dropping its fourth consecutive game in the underdog role. The Raiders lost for the second time in three tries against NFC East foes, one season after compiling a 3-1 record against teams from the NFC South.


The Eagles (12-2 SU, 10-4 ATS) picked up a victory in their first game without MVP candidate Carson Wentz as Nick Foles stepped in to toss four touchdown passes in a 34-29 triumph over the Giants. Philadelphia failed to cash as 7 ½-point road favorites, as Foles hooked up with four different receivers for scores, while improving to 6-2 on the highway in its final regular season road game.


Since a 1-2 ATS start, the Eagles have covered nine of their last 11 games, including five consecutive covers at Lincoln Financial Field. The victory over the Giants wrapped up a four-in-five game stretch of road contests, as Philadelphia has played only one home contest since the bye in Week 10.


SERIES HISTORY


These teams met in Super Bowl XV in New Orleans as the Raiders crushed the Eagles, 27-10 in January 1981. Fast-forwarding to present day, Philadelphia ripped Oakland in its previous matchup, 49-20 in 2013 at the Coliseum. Foles had his breakout game in his first stint with Philadelphia by tossing seven touchdown passes and 406 yards, while the only current Eagle to score a touchdown in that game was tight end Zach Ertz. The Raiders are making their first trip to Philadelphia since 2005 as Oakland covered as nine-point underdogs in a 23-20 defeat.


TOTAL TALK


The Raiders are riding a five-game UNDER streak, although only one of those UNDERS came away from the Black Hole. The UNDER is 4-2 in Oakland’s six road games, while scoring 15 points or less in four of those contests. The Eagles hit three consecutive UNDERS following their bye, but are currently on a two-game OVER streak. There hasn’t been any solid trends for Philadelphia at home as they have hit the UNDER three times and the OVER three times at Lincoln Financial Field.


KEY TREND


Akins supplies a trend that supports Philadelphia, “The Eagles are 13-0 ATS since Nov 23, 2014 when each of their last two games have gone over the total.” Two of those victories came this season by 27 and 23 points at home.

BOOKMAKER’S TAKE


Cooley of BookMaker.eu checks in on the night action, “Both sides of the betting spectrum on Philadelphia in this one, which moved the number to double digits. The heavy smart money is on the UNDER, where we have nearly 80 percent of the action. We’re hoping the Raiders can find some sort of motivation to compete in this one.”

 

[CNOTES]

Monday's Best Bet
December 22, 2017


NFL Week 16 MNF Betting Preview


Oakland Raiders vs Philadelphia Eagles


NFL fans get a nice Christmas present from the league this year with Christmas being on a Monday, as the NFL has scheduled a double-header for our consumption, but they probably hoped that these games would have been a bit more competitive then the oddsmakers currently suggest.


Both Monday games currently have lines of -9 for the favorite, with Pittsburgh laying that chalk on the road in Houston, and Philadelphia laying that chalk at home against Oakland.


It's the latter of the two games that I want to focus on as Oakland is still clinging to their slim playoff hopes entering Week 16 at 6-8 SU, but depending on how Saturday and Sunday's action goes, they could be eliminated before they even kickoff.


But with two of the three teams ahead of them at 8-6 SU (Buffalo, Baltimore, Tennessee) entering Week 16 as touchdown or more underdogs, if everything holds to form, the Raiders will still have a chance.


It won't be easy though as the Eagles have already clinched a first round bye and are one win away from the #1 seed in the NFC.


Bookmaker.eu Odds: Philadelphia (-9); Total set at 47.5


Many of the concerns Eagles fans had about going back to QB Nick Foles last week after Carson Wentz was lost for the season were squashed – for one week at least – when Foles played wonderfully against the Giants. Foles threw for 237 yards and 4 TD's (no INT's) in that game as this Eagles offense remains dynamic and will be a force to be reckoned with in the playoffs. But it's been this Eagles defense that is starting to cause some concern as one good game by Foles doesn't mean he can continually put 30+ up on the board each week and the 64 points Philly's D has allowed the past two weeks is a little alarming.


The Eagles defense became so accustomed to playing with huge leads all year that they were able to be aggressive and take risks in those scenarios. When you are constantly up 14+ points there is no fear about a guy beating you because even if it does happen, your team still has the lead and you're confident the offense will go right back out their and pad that margin right back. But although Foles looked great a week ago, he's still not Wentz back there, and it's impossible for the Eagles D to play with that same type of reckless confidence not really knowing what to expect from Foles on a drive-by-drive basis.


As a team, Philly knows they've already clinched a top-two spot in the NFC too, so there is the possibility of a bit of a letdown here in regards to this big point spread. The Eagles just need a SU win by any margin to clinch the top seed and given what they've already dealt with regarding Wentz's health, the goal simply has to be “stay healthy, get the W, and move on to next week.” That's not exactly the best mindset for a team to have if you have a -9 ticket on them in your pocket, especially against a team that's playing for their lives.


Granted, Oakland may know their 2017 campaign is done by the time this game starts, but I really don't think that will be the case and they'll be ready and willing to try and pull off this upset. They've seen the Eagles defensive struggles of late, and while it has been a disappointing season all around for this Raiders team, offensively they've still got plenty of playmakers over there and should be able to find some success. Oakland is 2-0-2 ATS after their last four outright losses, and with no room left for error, QB Derek Carr and company will look to pull out all the stops in this one.


When you boil it all down, this point spread is just much to high to not take the points with an extremely desperate Raiders team trying to hold onto the little hope they've got for 2017. Philly has everything basically locked up and will probably end up winning this game SU, but it will be a late score that puts them ahead for good, as Oakland keeps this one well within this inflated number.


Odds per - Bookmaker.eu


Best Bet: Oakland +9

 

[CNOTES]

december nfl best bets & opinions ( based on 5 units )


date w-l-t % units record


12/24/2017 12-11-1 52.17% -0.50
12/23/2017 2-2-0 50.00% -1.00
12/18/2017 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
12/17/2017 12-9-2 57.14% +10.50
12/16/2017 NO PLAYS
12/14/2017 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
12/11/2017 NO PLAYS
12/10/2017 16-11-0 59.25% +19.50
12/07/2017 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
12/04/2017 0-1-1 0.00% -5.50
12/03/2017 11-17-0 39.29% -38.50


Totals..........54 - 55........49.54%............-27.50


best bets:......................ats.................... ..units.........................o/u....................units


12/24/2017..................2 - 4.....................-12.00..........................5 - 5.................-2.50
12/23/2017..................1 - 1.....................-0.50............................1 - 1.................-0,50
12/18/2017..................1 - 0.....................+ 5.00..........................1 - 0.................+5.00
12/17/2017................4 - 3 - 1..................+8.50.........................5 - 4 - 1..............+3.00
12/16/2017................................N O P L A Y S................................................. ....
12/14/2017..................0 - 1.....................-5.50.............................0 - 1................-5.50
12/11/2017................................N O P L A Y S................................................. ......
12/10/2017..................6 - 3....................+13.50....................... ...5 - 3.................+8.50
12/07/2017..................0 - 1.....................-5.50............................0 - 1.................-5.50
12/03/2017..................0 - 1.....................-5.50............................0 - 0..................push
12/03/2017..................5 - 5.....................-2.50............................5 - 5..................-2.50


Totals..........................19 - 19..................-4.50......................... . 22 - 20...............+0.00

 

[CNOTES]

Merry Christmas to everyone; hope you have a great day!!!


Monday’s 6-pack
Top 6 picks in Week 16 in the Westgate Super Contest:
6) Cincinnati Bengals, +4.5 (558)- W
5) Tennessee Titans, +6.5 (559)- W
4) Dallas Cowboys, -4.5 (606)- L
3) New Orleans Saints, -5.5 (671)- W
2) Jacksonville Jaguars, -4.5 (694)- L
1) Los Angeles Rams, -6.5 (766)- L
Record of top 6 picks each week: 47-46–3


************************

Monday’s List of 13: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday


Rams 27, Titans 23— On opponents’ opening drives this season, Rams forced 8 turnovers on 15 drives, which is an amazing stat. Todd Gurley was a beast in this game; 118 rushing yards, 158 receiving yards, two touchdowns. Rams clinch their first divisional title since 2003.


Tennessee lost its 3rd game in row, is in danger of missing the playoffs for 10th year in a row. Seven of Titans’ last nine games were decided by five or less points. If Tennessee loses next week, they could still make it playoffs if Bills/Chargers also lose.


Bengals 26, Lions 17— This loss KO’s Detroit from playoff contention and likely ends the tenure of Jim Caldwell as head coach. Matthew Stafford makes $27M a year; he is now 59-65 as an NFL starter, 0-3 in playoff games. Lions last won a playoff game in 1991.


Chargers 14, Jets 7— Chargers won five of their last six games; they play Oakland next week in what should be a weird game, given how popular the Raiders remain in the LA area. Bolts need a win and also Titans to lose and then either Buffalo or the Ravens to lose to make the playoffs. Under is 9-1 in Chargers’ last ten games.


Jets are 11-42 on 3rd down in last three games; they’re 2-8 in their last ten games. Not sure why Christian Hackenberg hasn’t played yet; its similar to the Davis Webb/Giants quandary.


Bears 20, Browns 3— Cleveland is 1-30 the last two years, 3-12 vs spread this year. Browns are -15 in turnovers their last six games. Does this mean Sam Darnold stays at USC? Sounds like he doesn’t want to live near Lake Erie.


Panthers 22, Buccaneers 19— Carolina hadn’t scored an offensive TD all day until they drove 59 yards for the game-winning score with 0:35 left— they’re in the playoffs now, but they can win the division if they win next week and the Saints lose at Tampa Bay. Carolina is +10 in turnovers in its last six games.


Bucs’ GM and coach were talking big on Hard Knocks this past summer; but now they’re 4-11 and you wonder if Jon Gruden wants to coach the Bucs again, will they hire him?


Saints 23, Falcons 13— New Orleans is in the playoffs after starting season 0-2; Atlanta can still make playoffs by beating Carolina next week- they won 34-31 in Seattle Nov 20, the game that gives them the tie-breaker over the Seahawks.


This was first time in five years these two divisional rivals split their season series; New Orleans has won seven home games in a row- if they win next week, they’ll get another home game in the first round of the playoffs.


Weird thing about handicapping football; 10 of last 13 Atlanta games stayed under the total. Last year, 12 of 16 Falcon games went over the total. Each season is a separate entity.


Redskins 27, Broncos 11— Denver has to make a move for a franchise QB this winter; they were 1-7 on road this year, 0-4 as road underdogs, with six road losses by 10+ points- they’re -16 in turnovers. Thats a nice way of saying they’re terrible.


Washington is 3-2 in its last five games, can finish .500 if they beat the Giants next week. Going to be lot of QB-related issues this winter; will Redskins keep Cousins? Will Giants get rid of Eli Manning? Who will the Giants hire to be coach and GM? Will Washington keep Jay Gruden?


Chiefs 29, Dolphins 13— Do yourself a favor and find the video of Andy Reid’s post-game press conference; he did it in full Santa Claus garb. It is tremendous.


Chiefs win the AFC West, are 32-15 the last three years- they’re in playoffs for 4th time in last five years, but they also have questions— will they trade Alex Smith to the Browns?


As for Miami, they paid Jay Cutler $10M to come in and go 6-9- they lost six of last eight games, went 2-6 on the road. Dolphins can ruin Buffalo’s season by beating the Bills next week.


Patriots 37, Bills 16— NFL should go to FOX TV’s Mike Pereira, ask him how much he wants to take over the league’s instant replay system and put him in charge of it- that would fix a lot of the indecisiveness that seems to plague the current system.


As for Bills’ coach Sean McDermott and other AFC East coaches, their job security is tied to how long Tom Brady decides to play, because as soon as #12 walks, the AFC East becomes a free-for-all. But if the Titans, Bills and Chargers all win next week, then Buffalo misses the playoffs in a tie-breaker with the Chargers, who beat them 54-24 when Nathan Peterman threw five INTs in a half in his first NFL start. Decisions like that are bad for a coach’s job security.


Home teams are 8-1-1 vs spread in AFC East divisional games this season.


49ers 44, Jaguars 33— This was the first game in NFL history with a final score of 44-33; there are media members who already want Jimmy Garoppolo fitted for his gold Hall of Fame jacket. Garoppolo is 6-0 as an NFL starter and the 49ers will be a trendy pick to make the playoffs next year, but at this point, they’re passing tired horses.


Jacksonville clinched the AFC South when the Titans lost; Andrew Catalon on FOX was killing Blake Bortles in the third quarter of this game. Guy QB’s a 10-5 team and is getting crushed on TV. Four of last five Jacksonville games went over the total.


Cardinals 23, Giants 0— Arizona got its first shutout in 25 years, night after the Vikings got their first shutout in 24 years. If I was a Giants fan, I’d want to at least see Davis Webb play, to see if he has any ability, or any potential to at least bring back draft picks in a trade. Quarterbacks are valuable, I’m told.


Cardinals head to Seattle next week with a chance to finish .500; they’re an older team with an older coach— will Arians be back? Will Carson Palmer be back?


Seahawks 21, Cowboys 12— Dallas outgained Seattle 283-136, and lost by nine points. Brutal day for the Cowboys, which didn’t score a TD, then watched kicker Bailey miss two easy FG’s to get margin within a TD in 4th quarter. Last nine times Dallas had the ball, they turned ball over three times, kicked four FG’s, missed two other FG’s. Touchdowns win games.


Seattle needs the Falcons to lose at home to Carolina next week, and then to beat Arizona to make the playoffs. Seahawks have gained a TOTAL of 285 yards the last two weeks- their OL is terrible, but Russell Wilson’s big heart is keeping them alive.


If the playoffs started Christmas morning (they don’t), they would look like this:
AFC: Patriots-Steelers-Jaguars-Chiefs. Wild Cards: Ravens/Titans
NFC: Eagles-Vikings-Saints-Rams. Wild Cards: Panthers/Falcons

 

[CNOTES]

NFL


Week 16


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Christmas Night NFL Betting Preview and Odds: Raiders at Eagles
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Oakland Raiders at Philadelphia Eagles (-10, 46.5)


Eagles coach Doug Pederson essentially admitted that his brain had a mind of its own, so much so that he couldn't help but entertain various options with his team on the cusp of capturing the top seed in the NFC. Well, the club will have to earn it on Monday when it hosts the Raiders after the Vikings defeated the Packers on Sunday.


"I've begun thinking, but my focus is winning the game on Monday night, because that to me is the most important thing," Pederson said. Nick Foles stepped up in place of the injured Carson Wentz and threw for four touchdowns in Philadelphia's 34-29 win over the New York Giants, a total that is three fewer than when he tied an NFL record in Oakland on Nov. 3, 2013. The Raiders' slim postseason plans were dashed following back-to-back losses to Kansas City and Dallas, with the latter setback featuring an index card and a touchback as Derek Carr vied for the go-ahead score in the waning moments of the contest. "We're just going to play to win," coach Jack Del Rio said of his team's mindset. "We're going to do everything we can to get over this 'close but no cigar' finish we had."

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

POWER RANKINGS: Raiders (2) - Eagles (-3.5) + home field (-3) = Eagles -4.5.

LINE HISTORY: The Eagles opened as 9-point home favorites and that number has been bet up as high as -10 at some books. The total hit the betting board at 48.5 and money coming in on the under has driven that number down to 46.5.

WEATHER REPORT: 33 degrees and clear to partly cloudy during the game - winds at 14 to 15mph with 0% chance of precipitation

INJURY REPORT:


Raiders - WR Amari Coopers (Probable, Ankle), DL Denico Autry (Questionable, Hand), TE Jared Cook (Questionable, Wrist), C Rodney Hudson (Questionable, Ankle), LB Bruce Irvin (Questionable, Concussion), DB Keith McGill II (Questionable, Knee), Wr Cordarrelle Patterson (Questionable, Hip), DE Mario Edwards Jr. (Questionable, Ankle), DT Treyvon Hester (Questionable, Ankle), Wr Michael Crabtree (Questionable, Concussion), TE Clive Walford (I-R, Concussion), OT Donald Penn (I-R, Foot).


Eagles - CB Patrick Robinson (Probable, Concussion), DE Derek Barnett (Questionable, Groin), CB Jalen Mills (Questionable, Ankle), LB Mychal Kendricks (Questionable, Foot), G Stefen Wisniewski (Questionable, Ankle), CB Sidney Jones (Questionable, Achilles), S Chris Maragos (Questionable, Knee), QB Carson Wentz (I-R, Knee)

ABOUT THE RAIDERS (6-8 SU, 4-8-2 ATS, 5-9 O/U): Marshawn Lynch has scored five touchdowns in the past six games, but the rugged star will be tested by the league's top-ranked rush defense that is permitting just 71.5 yards per game. Carr tossed a pair of touchdown passes to Michael Crabtree versus the Cowboys, with the wideout reeling in seven receptions in back-to-back contests since serving a one-game suspension for his actions in the early going against Denver on Nov. 26. Amari Cooper was limited in Friday's practice with an ankle injury, leaving questions as to whether he'd take the field against the Eagles.

ABOUT THE EAGLES (12-2 SU, 10-4 ATS, 8-6 O/U): Alshon Jeffery has collected seven of his NFC second-best nine touchdown receptions in the past seven games while Pro Bowl tight end Zach Ertz has scored a touchdown in six straight home contests. Nelson Agholor has gotten his piece of the pie with three touchdowns in his last four games, with 22 receptions for 264 yards in his last three. Jay Ajayi continues to churn out big chunks of yardage since being acquired in an in-season trade with Miami, averaging a robust 6.4 per carry in six games with his new team.

TRENDS:


* Raiders are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.


* Eagles are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games.


* Over is 5-1 in Raiders last 6 Monday games.

CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the home chalk Eagles at a rate of 52 percent and the Over is getting 68 percent of the totals action.

 

[CNOTES]

MONDAY, DECEMBER 25
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


PIT at HOU 04:30 PM
PIT -8.5
O 45.0


OAK at PHI 08:30 PM
PHI -10.0
U 46.0

 

[CNOTES]

Houston's Yates struggles again in 34-6 loss to Steelers
December 25, 2017


HOUSTON (AP) Houston's quarterback woes continued on Monday, and it led to yet another loss.


T.J. Yates had two turnovers in the first half and managed just 83 yards passing in a 34-6 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers that extended the Texans' skid to five games.


The losing streak is Houston's longest since the team dropped the final 14 games of the 2013 season. The Texans have dropped eight of their last nine games and are 1-7 since losing star rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson to a season-ending knee injury.


''It's brutal,'' coach Bill O'Brien said of Houston's slide. ''It's been a tough year.''


Yates completed 7 of 16, had an interception and lost one of his three fumbles. His performance came after he threw for 128 yards with an interception in a 45-7 loss to Jacksonville last week in his first start since 2015.


''It's extremely frustrating ... the pass game was pretty terrible,'' Yates said. ''We've just got to figure it out. We've got one week left. Just got to go out there and try to find a way to get a win.''


Yates made his second straight start since Tom Savage sustained a concussion. Yates left the game briefly Monday to be evaluated for a concussion, and his replacement, Taylor Heinicke, sustained a concussion on his only full possession.


The Texans have had a revolving door at quarterback over the past few years, and when Heinicke entered the game he became the 11th player to appear at the position for the team since 2013. They'll likely have to sign yet another quarterback this week to backup Yates in the season finale at Indianapolis with Heinicke in the concussion protocol.


The Steelers hurried and harassed Yates all day, with Mike Hilton leading the way with three sacks and three quarterback hits, Cameron Heyward adding two and forcing a fumble. Hilton became the first cornerback with three sacks in a game since sacks became an official statistic in 1982.


Despite Houston's struggles at quarterback, receiver DeAndre Hopkins has continued to excel. Hopkins, second in the NFL with 1,378 yards receiving, had 65 yards receiving and the team's only touchdown Monday.


His acrobatic 3-yard touchdown reception in the fourth quarter was one of the few highlights of Houston's tough day. Hopkins deflected the ball with his right hand, reeled it in with his left and got both feet down before falling out of bounds for his NFL-best and franchise-record 13th touchdown reception.


''It was incredible,'' O'Brien said. ''Great catch. He did an unbelievable job.''


Even cornerback Joe Haden, who was covering Hopkins on the play, lauded him for the catch.


''He was able to tap both feet in,'' Haden said. ''It was just an amazing catch.


Hopkins may have been the only one who wasn't impressed with the grab.


''I'm mad I didn't catch it the first time,'' he said. ''Like me, who I am, I was supposed to catch that one the first time with my right hand.''


The Texans also got a good game from backup running back Alfred Blue, who had 16 carries for 108 yards to give the team its first 100-yard rushing performance of the season.


The Texans trailed 10-0 when his 48-yard run on the first play of the second quarter got the Texans to the Pittsburgh 18-yard line. Houston got to the 1 on second down later in that drive, but couldn't do anything on the next two plays before Yates was intercepted in the end zone.


Pittsburgh added a touchdown on a 1-yard run by Roosevelt Nix on the ensuing possession. Heyward sacked Yates three plays later and caused a fumble recovered by Bud Dupree to give the Steelers the ball right back.


''We probably should have run it almost every down,'' O'Brien said. ''Probably should have, looking back on it. I don't know how many times we ran it, but probably should have done it a lot more than we did.''


*********************


Eagles clinch top seed, but Foles has tough time vs Raiders
December 26, 2017


PHILADELPHIA (AP) Nick Foles has three weeks to get in sync with his receivers.


Making his second start since MVP candidate Carson Wentz tore his left ACL, Foles had a tough time in Philadelphia's 19-10 victory over Oakland on Monday night. He was 19 of 38 for 163 yards with one touchdown and one interception, one week after he had four TD passes and no picks in a 34-29 win at the Giants.


The Eagles (13-2) clinched the NFC's No. 1 seed with the victory over the Raiders (6-9), so Foles and most of the starters may not play much or at all against Dallas in Week 17. Their next meaningful game is Jan. 13 or 14 in the playoffs.


Considering the offense's poor performance Christmas night, coach Doug Pederson might want to let them work on it against the Cowboys.


''It'll probably be Wednesday before I make a final decision on who plays,'' Pederson said. ''Right now with only two (quarterbacks), I would assume (Foles) has to play some.''


The wind played a factor in the passing game for both teams. Oakland's Derek Carr also struggled.


''It was gusty at times, made it a little more difficult,'' Pederson said.


After Ronald Darby intercepted Carr's pass with 54 seconds left, Foles came through. He completed four straight passes for 21 yards. Following an incomplete pass, Jake Elliott kicked a 48-yard field goal with 22 seconds left. Derek Barnett sealed it when he returned a fumble 23 yards for a touchdown after picking up a lateral on Oakland's final play from scrimmage.


''I didn't play good enough,'' Foles said. ''I have to play cleaner, (need) pinpoint accuracy and good decisions on third downs.''


Here's some things we learned from Philadelphia's win over Oakland:


BIG-PLAY D: The Eagles forced five turnovers in the second half, making one big play after another to bail out the offense. It was a dramatic turnaround for the defense, which struggled against Eli Manning and the Giants last week. They held the Raiders to 274 total yards, 63 coming on one play - Carr's TD pass to Amari Cooper.


''Last week, our offense was carrying us and we were playing like trash and this week our offense was making little mistakes and we had to come out there and make some plays,'' Darby said. ''That's what football is all about, a team effort.''


THIRD-DOWN WOES: The Eagles were 1 for 14 on third downs and somehow still won. They were 2 for 2 on fourth down, including a conversion on a TD drive in the first quarter.


''We just didn't get into a rhythm,'' tight end Zach Ertz said. ''Our defense bailed us out.''


MACK ATTACK: Raiders defensive end Khalil Mack didn't have any sacks for the first time in six weeks, but he caused Pro Bowl right tackle Lane Johnson to commit two holding penalties and have a false start penalty.


''You can count on Khalil,'' Raiders coach Jack Del Rio said. ''You put it down and he's going to play well. He's a fiery football player and his attitude and effort every day is unbelievable. He's very consistent that way.''

BEAST MODE: Marshawn Lynch had 95 yards rushing on a season-high 25 carries. He almost became the first running back to reach 100 yards against Philadelphia since October 2016. The Raiders finished with 134 yards on the ground against the NFL's top-ranked run defense.

INVISIBLE MEN: Philadelphia's Alshon Jeffery and Oakland's Michael Crabtree had no catches. Jeffery was targeted twice and Crabtree three times.

 

[CNOTES]

december nfl best bets & opinions ( based on 5 units )


date w-l-t % units record


12/25/2017 2-2-0 50.00% -1.00
12/24/2017 12-11-1 52.17% -0.50
12/23/2017 2-2-0 50.00% -1.00
12/18/2017 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
12/17/2017 12-9-2 57.14% +10.50
12/16/2017 NO PLAYS
12/14/2017 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
12/11/2017 NO PLAYS
12/10/2017 16-11-0 59.25% +19.50
12/07/2017 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
12/04/2017 0-1-1 0.00% -5.50
12/03/2017 11-17-0 39.29% -38.50


Totals..........56 - 57........49.55%............-28.50


best bets:......................ats.................... ..units.........................o/u....................units


12/25/2017..................1 - 1.....................-0.50...........................1 - 1..................0.50
12/24/2017..................2 - 4.....................-12.00..........................5 - 5.................-2.50
12/23/2017..................1 - 1.....................-0.50............................1 - 1.................-0,50
12/18/2017..................1 - 0.....................+ 5.00..........................1 - 0.................+5.00
12/17/2017................4 - 3 - 1..................+8.50.........................5 - 4 - 1..............+3.00
12/16/2017................................N O P L A Y S................................................. ....
12/14/2017..................0 - 1.....................-5.50.............................0 - 1................-5.50
12/11/2017................................N O P L A Y S................................................. ......
12/10/2017..................6 - 3....................+13.50....................... ...5 - 3.................+8.50
12/07/2017..................0 - 1.....................-5.50............................0 - 1.................-5.50
12/03/2017..................0 - 1.....................-5.50............................0 - 0..................push
12/03/2017..................5 - 5.....................-2.50............................5 - 5..................-2.50


Totals..........................20 - 20..................-5.00......................... . 23 - 21...............-0.50

 

[CNOTES]

Betting Recap - Week 16
December 26, 2017


Overall Notes


NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE WEEK 16 RESULTS


Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 13-3
Against the Spread 8-7-1


Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 11-5
Against the Spread 9-5-2


Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 3-13


HAPPY HOLIDAYS, EVERYONE!!!


The largest underdogs to win straight up
Seahawks (+4.5, ML +195) at Cowboys, 21-12
49ers (+4, ML +180) vs. Rams, 44-33
Bengals (+3, ML +155) vs. Lions, 26-17


The largest favorite to cover
Chiefs (-11) vs. Dolphins, 29-13
Patriots (-11) vs. Bills, 37-16
Vikings (-9) at Packers, 16-0
Steelers (-9) at Texans, 34-6

Kansas City Barbeque


-- The Kansas City Chiefs are finally back on track after taking a few weeks off in the middle of the season. The Chiefs opened 5-0 SU/ATS in the first five weeks, went 1-6 SU/ATS over the next seven weeks, and now are rolling again as they have clinched the AFC West Division and heading for the playoffs. Since Week 14 the Chiefs are 3-0 SU/ATS and they have found their defense again, too. The 'under' is a perfect 3-0 over the past three weeks, and 6-1 across the past seven as they look like the contender they were in the beginning of the season rather than the pretender we saw for half of October and most of November.


Feeling Minnesota


-- The Minnesota Vikings are showing no signs of letting up as they march to the playoffs in hopes of becoming the first team in National Football League history to play the Super Bowl in their own stadium. In fact, as this rate they might not have to leave their own building for the playoffs, either. The Vikings have allowed single-digit point totals in four of the past six games as their defense reigns supreme, and we all know defense wins championships. Minnesota has won 10 of their past 11 games and they're an impressive 8-1 ATS over the past nine games, too.

Total Recall


-- Vegas expected the Atlanta Falcons-New Orleans game (52) to be a shootout, but for the second time in three weeks this NFC South Division battle went 'under'. They met on Dec. 7 and the Falcons won 20-17 with the same exact 52-point line, and the Saints won the rematch 23-13 in the Big Easy on Christmas Eve. Bettors should have known better, as the 'under' is a perfect 4-0 across the past four games for Atlanta and 9-3 over the past 12 outings. The 'under' has been a semi-frequent occurence for the Saints, too, going 7-4 across their past 11 outings.


-- A shootout was expected in what was essentially an elimination game between the Seattle Seahawks-Dallas Cowboys. It wasn't close to happening, and it didn't help that the first half was completely scoreless. The pace picked up in the middle quarters, but it safely went 'under' with the Seahawks winning 21-12. Tampa Bay-Carolina (47) was also expected to be rather high scoring, especially with the Bucs ranked last in pass defense. However, the NFC South battle turned into a field-goal fest, with just two offensive touchdowns, a special teams touchdown and seven field goals.


-- Even with a line of 36.5, Cleveland-Chicago never threatened to go 'over' the total. The Bears led the game 6-3 at halftime in a battle which resembled a preseason contest. In fact, these teams meet frequently on the exhibition schedule. The 'under' is 4-0-1 for Chicago over the past five outings, with the 'under' going 3-1 over the past four as these two non-contenders limp to the finish line. The other two games with totals in the 30's -- Denver-Washington (39) and N.Y. Giants-Arizona (39.5) -- both cashed the 'under'. In fact, the Giants were blanked, one of two teams to get shut out in Week 16 to help 'under' bettors.

-- The 'Under' went 1-0 from the lone primetime game Saturday, with no Sunday night contest due to the holiday. The 'over' is 25-22-1 (53.1%) through the first 48 primetime games of the 2017 season with Monday's Oakland-Philadelphia (46) game still pending. Officially, the 'over' finished 27-24 (52.9%) through 51 games under the lights in 2016. In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games. In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.


Injury Report


-- Chargers RB Melvin Gordon (ankle) left with an ankle injury, and he was unable to return after the fourth-quarter injury. His status for the regular-season finale is up in the air.


-- Titans RB DeMarco Murray (knee) suffered what is believed to be a sprained lateral collateral ligament in his knee, with an MRI pending.


Looking Ahead


-- The Cowboys and Eagles meet in Week 17. Dallas was eliminated from playoff contention, while the Eagles continue to jockey for position in the NFC playoff picture. Philly went to Dallas and humbled the Cowboys 37-9 back on Nov. 19 on Sunday Night Football, but that also came with QB Carson Wentz under center before his season-ending knee injury two weeks ago. The Cowboys are struggling down the stretch, going 2-4-1 ATS over the past seven games with the 'under' going 7-1 over the past eight, including that first matchup with the Eagles.


-- The Browns and Steelers met in Week 1, with Pittsburgh winning 21-18 in Cleveland as a 10-point favorite. It was a rare cover for the Browns, who are 1-7 ATS over their past eight and 2-12 ATS since that opening game loss. In fact, the three-point loss in the opener might have been Cleveland's best performance of the season. Can they avoid NFL history and an 0-16 record by upsetting their rivals in the Steel City?


-- The Falcons enter an important NFC South battle with the Panthers as a three-point favorite. These sides met in Charlotte back on Nov. 5, and it was the Panthers coming away with a 20-17 victory with the 'under' cashing. It will be the first meeting between these teams are Atlanta's brand new Mercedes-Benz Stadium, but Julio Jones went for 300 yards receiving in the most recent meeting in Atlanta, something Carolina will be working to avoid.


-- Both the Packers and Lions will be home for the holidays, as both teams have been eliminated from playoff contention. The Lions are looking to finish up strong, and they exorcised many demons with a 30-17 win in Green Bay back on Nov. 6. Detroit has covered two of their past three games and they're playing much better, while the 'under' has hit in three straight. Green Bay has their backup quarterback taking them to the finish line, and they're 4-6 ATS over the past 10 outings. Sunday's 'under', a result of a shutout loss to Minnesota, was the first under after four consecutive 'over' results.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL notebook: Titans RB Murray expected to miss season finale with knee injury
December 25, 2017


The Tennessee Titans can clinch a playoff berth if they beat the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday, but they probably will have to do it without running back DeMarco Murray.


Murray is not expected to play because of a knee injury, according to an NFL Network report Monday.


Titans coach Mike Mularkey said after Sunday's 27-23 loss to the Los Angeles Rams that Murray's prospects for playing the following week were not good. Now it seems the chances are close to zero.


Murray is the Titans' No. 1 back and has rushed for 659 yards on 184 carries.


-- Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Jaelen Strong confirmed via Instagram that he suffered a torn ACL during Sunday's loss to the San Francisco 49ers.


The third-year receiver was injured during the fourth quarter of the 44-33 loss. He caught three passes for 38 yards and a touchdown in his first game with the Jaguars.


"My first reception goes for a TD. IM SO EXCITED to finally be out here w GANG grinding w my dogs and then I tear my ACL," Strong said in a post Sunday night.


On Monday he added: "This lil setback setting me up for a greater comeback..."


--Landon Collins' run of 47 consecutive starts will end next week, because the New York Giants' safety suffered a broken forearm in Sunday's game against the Arizona Cardinals.


Collins was still in the game when Cardinals quarterback Drew Stanton took a knee to end the second quarter. Collins did not think the injury was serious until tests at halftime indicated he had a fracture.


He cried when he saw the result of the X-rays, the New York Daly News reported.


"It's the worst feeling in the world, to not be able to play with my boys, that's what hurt me the most," Collins said, according to the Daily News. "I came in here crying. That's what hurt me the most. It's not the injury because I can try to fight through an injury. But to not be able to play because it's broke."


No decision has been made regarding whether surgery will be required.


-- The Seattle Seahawks' euphoria about their critical victory over the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday may be tempered by the actions and words of All-Pro safety Earl Thomas after the game, when he suggested he might want to become a Cowboy.


Following Seattle's 21-12 victory in Arlington, Texas, which kept the Seahawks' playoff hopes alive while ending the Cowboys' postseason chances, Thomas ran after Cowboys coach Jason Garrett as they approached the Cowboys' locker room.


They spoke briefly, and Edward Egros of FOX 4 TV in Dallas reported Thomas was heard to say, "If you have a chance to get me, come get me."


Surprisingly, Thomas expanded on his comments when questioned by reporters.


"I don't literally mean, 'Come get me now,'" he said. "I'm still in the prime of my career. I still want to be here. But when Seattle kicks me to the curb, please, the Cowboys, come get me. This is the only place I'd rather be if I get kicked to the curb."

 

[CNOTES]

Total Talk - Week 17
December 30, 2017


The ‘under’ produced an eye-opening 13-3 record last week, which was the most lopsided total results we’ve seen this season. Only four teams were able to score 30 or more points while five were held to one score or less and that includes a pair of shutouts. Through 16 weeks, the ‘under’ holds a 124-112-4 (52.5%) record. Make a note that every game in Week 17 is a divisional matchup and the ‘under’ has produced a 47-24-1 (66%) mark in those contests this season.

Line Moves


Listed below are the largest line moves as of Saturday morning based off the Week 17 openers posted last Sunday and throughout the week at BookMaker.eu.


Carolina at Atlanta: 47 to 45
New Orleans at Tampa Bay: 50 to 48
N.Y. Jets at New England: 46 to 43 ½
Cleveland at Pittsburgh: 41 to 36 ½
Dallas at Philadelphia: 43 to 39
Oakland at L.A. Chargers: 44 to 42
Arizona at Seattle: 41 to 38 ½
Kansas City at Denver: 41 to 38
San Francisco at L.A. Rams: 46 to 43 1/2


Scott Cooley of BookMaker.eu. explained the stance of their shop entering the final week of the regular season. He said, “As with everything in Week 17, we try to keep limits lower than normal because of the unknown. A lot of these totals are starting to look like the last week of the preseason.”


While there have been a bunch of quick adjustments this week, BookMaker.eu is focused on a trio of totals headed into the weekend. Cooley noted, “We’ve got decent liability on that Cleveland-Pitt under. The most exposure at this point is the Chiefs-Broncos under as that’s been hit repeatedly by the pros. The Dallas-Philly total is one-sided as well, but we’ll get some over money from the public to offset some.”


Handicapping Week 17


The last week of the regular season is often the most difficult to handicap for both sides and totals. With that being said, I’d urge you to tread lightly on the meaningless matchups.


WEEK 17 TOTAL RESULTS (2012-2016)
Year Over/Under
2016 9-7
2015 5-11
2014 6-10
2013 6-10
2012 8-8


After watching the 'under' produce solid results in Week 17 from 2012 through 2015, we noticed a slight 'over' spike last season when you look at the above table.


Based on playoff implications, there are six meaningless matchups on Sunday. Hopefully you’ll be able to survive the first wave of action and still be alive for the meaningful matchups in Week 17. Lastly, keep an eye on weather as there are expected to be some frigid conditions in the Northern part of the country.


Green Bay at Detroit: The ‘over’ has hit in four straight five of the last six meetings between the pair. Packers quarterback Brett Hundley was moving the ball before Aaron Rodgers came back but was blanked last week at home to the Vikings. Detroit’s offense has been in a tailspin lately but I wouldn’t be surprised to see fireworks inside.


Houston at Indianapolis: The ‘under’ has connected in three of the last four between the pair. It’s a low total (40 ½) and I would expect a heavy dose of running back Frank Gore for the Colts. Wide Receiver DeAndre Hopkins (calf) is ‘out’ for the Texans.


Washington at N.Y. Giants: The pair have seen the ‘under’ go 3-1 in the last four meetings, which includes Washington’s 20-10 win over New York on Nov. 23. The Giants offense showed some life in a 34-29 versus the Eagles a couple weeks ago but followed it up with zero points versus Arizona last week. Washington is on a 3-0 ‘under’ run and its defense has allowed 15 and 11 points the last two weeks versus teams below .500, which is exaclty what New York is.


Dallas at Philadelphia: In Week 17 last season, Dallas rested its starters and Philadelphia earned a 27-13 win over their backups. The Eagles are expected to play their starters but nobody knows for how long. The ‘under’ has cashed in the last two meetings and the Cowboys have watched seven of their last eight go the low side.


Kansas City at Denver: The ‘over’ is on a 4-0-1 run in this series but early action is backing the ‘under’ in this matchup. Kansas City wills start rookie quarterback Patrick Mahomes and he’ll be facing a quality defense on the road. Denver has watched the ‘under’ go 5-1 in its last six games.


San Francisco at L.A. Rams: Bettors continue to ride the 49ers behind QB Jimmy Garoppolo, who is now 6-0 as a NFL starter. I would expect the 49ers to score but the Rams are resting key starters and I can’t see that offense doing much in this spot. Los Angeles captured a wild 41-39 shootout in Week 3 on the road but it’s very doubtful to see a repeat performance. The ‘under’ is on a 4-2 run in this series, which includes the first match this season.


Heavy Expectations


There are three other games at 1:00 p.m. ET where the game is only meaningful for one team and all of those clubs are expected to win with the oddsmakers listing them as healthy home favorites.


N.Y. Jets at New England (-15): The ‘under’ is on a 3-0 run in this series and this is the lowest total (43 ½) that this matchup has seen since 2013. It’s going to be cold and I would expect a calculated game-plan for New England to get the win and move toward the playoffs. The Jets could use two quarterbacks (Bryce Petty, Christian Hackenberg) on Sunday and that’s never a good situation.


Cleveland at Pittsburgh (-11): The Steelers were laying a heavy number but they’ve conceded the No. 1 seed in the AFC and will rest players. The books are hoping for points with one-sided ‘under’ action and it’s been series that has been dominated by the low side, going 8-2 in the last 10 encounters.


Chicago at Minnesota (-11): I thought the Vikings would rest players too knowing they need the Saints to win or the Panthers to lose to clinch the No. 2 seed in the NFC. Minnesota has dropped 38 points in each of its last two home games versus Chicago. The Bears are off a win but they’ve averaged 13.3 PPG after a victory this season, which has helped the ‘under’ go 4-1.


Meaningful Matchups


Cincinnati at Baltimore: The ‘under’ has cashed in three straight, which includes Baltimore’s 20-0 win at Cincinnati in Week 1. The Ravens have done a great job of dominating teams not headed to the playoffs, only allowing 11.6 PPG.


Buffalo at Miami: The ‘over’ is on a 4-0-1 run in this series and that includes the ‘push’ (40) in their recent meeting in Week 15 when Buffalo stopped Miami 24-16. Both the Bills and Dolphins haven’t been great offensively of late and yet the total (42) has been pushed up for the rematch.


Carolina at Atlanta: The Panthers nipped the Falcons 20-17 at home on Nov. 5 and the ‘under’ (42) connected. Even though the ‘over’ went 2-0 last season, this series watched the ‘under’ cash in six straight prior to those results. The Falcons defense has been great at home (17.7 PPG) and that’s helped the ‘under’ go 5-2 in their new digs.


New Orleans at Tampa Bay: This is the highest total (48) on the board yet this series has watched the ‘under’ connect in five of the last six meetings. New Orleans needs the win to clinch the division but could find itself in a dogfight at this venue. Tampa Bay has watched the ‘under’ go 6-1 at home.


Jacksonville at Tennessee: The ‘over’ has cashed in four straight between the pair and the Titans appear to be the only team to have figured out the defense of the Jaguars, averaging 33 points per game during this stretch. Jacksonville announced that its starters will play and a win would likely have them facing the Bills or Chargers next week, instead of the Titans again.


Oakland at L.A. Chargers: Three of the last four meetings have seen the ‘under’ connect and all of those games were decided by three points or less. The line on the Chargers (-7) is definitely inflated and I expect Oakland to keep this game competitive but neither offense is in great form. Oakland has seen the ‘under’ cash in its last six games and the Chargers bring a 5-0 ‘under’ run into this matchup.


Arizona at Seattle: The Seahawks need a win and some help to make the playoffs while the Cardinals will look to play spoilers. The visitor has dominated this series recently, winning five and earning a tie in the other outcome. Arizona has scored 34 and 39 in its last two trips up North but it’s hard to imagine this short-handed offense doing the same kind of damage. Seattle’s defense has looked better against losing clubs (18.3 PPG) and I would expect a similar effort in the home finale.


Fearless Predictions


The holiday weekend ($220) didn’t go as planned and the goal of getting the overall bankroll into the black by the playoffs isn’t going to happen unfortunately. After 64 plays through 16 weeks, the juice has us in the red ($570). As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck and Happy New Year to you and yours!


Best Over: Jacksonville-Tennessee 42


Best Under: Washington-N.Y. Giants 39 ½


Best Team Total: Over Detroit Lions 24 ½


Three-Team Total Teaser (8.5-Point, +100)
Over 29 ½ Kansas City-Denver
Over 30 Chicago-Minnesota
Under 45 Cleveland-Pittsburgh

 

[CNOTES]

B]Vegas Money Moves - Week 17
December 30, 2017[/B]


It's the final weekend of the NFL regular season and six teams are still vying for one of the final three Wild Card spots. Some teams are trying to improve their positions and get as many home field games in the playoffs as possible, some teams have been eliminated and others are resting players with their playoff position set. It's in those games with players being rested that poses the biggest headache for Nevada bookmakers.


"It's a tricky week," MGM Resorts race and sports VP Jay Rood said about the annual Week 17 dilemma. "Games with zero implications, we put a circle on the game (half limit), but for most of our house players, those limits dont mean anything."


Rood says half of his NFL games posted this week have a circle attached.


"I think with everyone scoreboard watching, we're going to have some interesting halftime lines," he said.


Just because a team has to win, doesn't mean they're good enough to do it. And just because a team rests its players doesn't mean the back-ups are going to tank. For the teams that have nothing to play for at all, don't count them out, either. These guys are all pros and they have jobs to do. They need to look good on film for future job security so you would assume that they can't afford to look bad on Sunday.


The game that takes center stage this week was the Rams opening as 6.5-point home favorites against the 49ers. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook posted the first number last Sunday night before the Eagles win against the Raiders on Monday night in Week 16. Bettors immediately jumped on the 49ers figuring the Rams would rest with not much to gain. The Westgate dropped the Rams to -3.5 on Christmas Day. It was pick 'em by Wednesday and by Friday it was the 49ers -4.


"Overall action so far has been light," Rood said Saturday afternoon. "The only game moving real aggressively has been the 49ers. We're going to need the Rams pretty good. It's our biggest decision of the week."


Rood had opened the Rams -4 on Monday morning with expectations that quarterback Jared Goof and running back Todd Gurley, two legitimate MVP candidates, would be playing. Both were officially declared 'out' on Wednesday. Let's say Goff is worth six-points to the point-spread, relative to his back-up Sean Mannion, and let's make Gurley worth two-points, the highest rating for a RB in the NFL, along with Dallas Cowboys back Ezekiel Elliott.


The 49ers have been red hot with QB Jimmy Garoppolo winning all four of his starts with San Francisco and they're playing like they don't want the season to end. They've also covered the last four meetings in this series, which includes a 41-39 loss to the Rams back in September. However, something to chew on come Sunday is that the 49ers have lost their last eight games when listed as favorites.


The Chiefs are also resting key personnel with nothing to gain in Week 17. That means QB Alex Smith and wide receiver Tyreek Hill are 'out' and tight end Travis Kelce is 'doubtful' to play. Rookie QB Patrick Mahomes gets the nod under center and this will be his first start as a quarterback in the NFL.


"We opened Denver -3.5 and have taken lots of parlay money on them, but our move up to -4 was just staying in line with the market," Rood said.


The Broncos are starting QB Paxton Lynch, giving their former No. 1 draft pick one last look before making a decision on where he fits in, if at all in Denver's future plans. If Trevor Siemian was starting at home for this one, a Broncos play would be wise but Lynch has been a disaster, so be careful here.


The Eagles have clinched the No. 1 seed in the NFC and have no reason to activate any players of major value when Dallas visits.


"We've seen lots of Cowboys action so far," said Rood who has Dallas posted at -3 -120, "but mostly from non-sharp players."


The Redskins go into MetLife Stadium to face the Giants with each team having nothing to prove. It's been a disappointment for each team, but the public has a side they like here. "The Redskins (-3 -120) have taken one-sided action, both large and small money siding with them," Rood said.


The Chargers are outside looking in the playoffs, but still alive. They need to win at home against the Raiders, get the Titans to lose and have the Ravens win.


"We've had good two-way action on the Chargers-Raiders game," Rood said. "Nothing getting us over-extended; Raiders volume has been at 3-to-2 on parlays and 2-to-1 on straight bets."


Raiders money took all the +8 and +7.5s leaving most sitting with the Chargers -7.


"Atlanta-Carolina is split, there's been lots of (public) money on the Saints and the bridge-jumpers have been laying the Patriots money-line," Rood said.


A bridge-jumper is someone who lays the big price of a "can't lose situation" and the side loses. The term bridge-jumper first came about with bettors who place a wager to show on a massive horse-racing favorite and then the horse runs out of the money (1st, 2nd or 3rd). Dam-divers is another popular term here in Las Vegas thanks to our massive Hoover Dam in Boulder City.


Anyway, the Patriots are -1,600 (Bet $1,600 to win $100) on the money-line to win outright (no points) at the Mirage with the Jets (5-10) take-back at +900 (Bet $100 to win $900). All the Patriots have to do to clinch the AFC's No. 1 seed throughout the playoffs is win or have the Steelers lose at home to the Browns. Two years ago the Patriots lost their final two regular season games in a similar situation, except both were on the road at the Jets, 26-20, and at Miami, 20-10. Denver got home field because of those losses and went on to beat the Patriots in Denver in the AFC title game, and they also won the Super Bowl over Carolina.


Something else for the bridge-jumpers to consider is that Tom Brady is in a funk his past four games where he's tossed just four touchdowns while throwing five interceptions. This isn't the same Brady from last season that won his final 10 games (9-1 ATS) and eventually ended with a Super Bowl win.


When they met at MetLife Stadium in Week 6, the Patriots won 24-17, but failed to cover the nine points. It was the third straight meeting between the pair that stayed 'under' and it also made the Jets 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine meetings with New England.


The Patriots were as high as -16, but most books around the state have dropped them down to -15 or -15.5. The Jets are starting Bryce Petty again at quarterback, but something that stands out the most with the Jets is going 9-5-1 ATS. They've been competitive most of the season which is why head coach Todd Bowles just got a contract extension.


Here's a look at some sharp and public plays at a few books in Nevada:


Jason McCormick, Station Casinos
Sharp: Buccaneers, Raiders, Dolphins
Public: Saints, Seahawks, Vikings


Jason Simbal, CG Technology
Sharp: Jaguars
Public: 49ers


Marc Nelson, Atlantis Reno
Sharp: Buccaneers, Jaguars, Jets, Browns, 49ers
Public: Falcons, Saints, Raiders, Seahawks

 

[CNOTES]

Pick Six - Week 17
December 28, 2017


Week 16 Record: 3-3 SU, 4-2 ATS
Overall Record: 46-50 SU, 42-50-2 ATS


Panthers at Falcons (-3 ½, 44 ½) – 4:25 PM EST


Carolina
Record: 11-4 SU, 9-6 ATS, 9-6 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 14/1


The Panthers clinched their fourth playoff berth in the past five seasons by rallying past the Buccaneers, 22-19 to wrap up their home slate at 6-2. Carolina failed to cash as 10-point favorites, but quarterback Cam Newton scrambled for the game-winning touchdown with 35 seconds remaining to improve to 3-2 inside the NFC South. The Panthers need a victory and a New Orleans loss to wrap up the division title, as Carolina owns a solid 5-1 SU/ATS record in the role of an underdog this season.


Atlanta
Record: 9-6 SU, 6-9 ATS, 10-5 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 25/1


The Falcons control their destiny for a chance to defend their NFC crown with a win on Sunday. Atlanta was tripped up at New Orleans last Sunday, 23-13 as 5 ½-point underdogs, while cashing its fourth consecutive UNDER. The Falcons look to avenge a 20-17 loss at Carolina as three-point favorites in Week 9 as Atlanta squandered an early 10-0 lead and standout wide receiver Julio Jones dropped a sure touchdown pass in the fourth quarter. Jones hauled in 118 yards in the loss, while compiling a franchise-best 300 yards in a 48-33 home victory over Carolina last season.

Best Bet: Falcons -3 ½


Saints (-7, 50 ½) at Buccaneers – 4:25 PM EST


New Orleans
Record: 11-4 SU, 9-6 ATS, 8-7 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 10/1


The Saints are back in the postseason for the first time since 2013 as New Orleans is one victory away from hosting a first round playoff game. New Orleans is coming off a pair of home wins over Atlanta and New York, while holding four straight opponents to 21 points or fewer. Eight of the last nine meetings at Raymond James Stadium have finished UNDER the total, as the Saints have limited the Buccaneers to 20 points or less in each of the past four road matchups.


Tampa Bay
Record: 4-11 SU, 5-9-1 ATS, 8-7 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: OFF


The Buccaneers close out a disappointing season off five consecutive losses, including three straight defeats by three points or fewer. Tampa Bay cashed in losses to Atlanta and Carolina, but the Bucs are 0-5 in NFC South play this season after compiling a 4-2 division mark in 2016. The Bucs will look to close out their home schedule at 4-4 with a victory, while trying to avenge a 30-10 defeat at the Superdome in Week 9.


Best Bet: Saints -7


Cardinals at Seahawks (-9 ½, 38 ½) – 4:25 PM EST


Arizona
Record: 7-8 SU, 5-9-1 ATS, 10-5 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: OFF


The Cardinals attempt to win consecutive games for the first time this season on Sunday after destroying the Giants in Week 16 at home, 23-0 as three-point favorites. Arizona owns an 0-6 SU and 0-5-1 ATS record in 2017 off a victory, while scoring 17 points or less in all six games in this situation. The Cardinals have struggled away from University of Phoenix Stadium by going 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS, while posting an 0-4 SU/ATS mark as a road underdog.


Seattle
Record: 9-6 SU, 6-8-1 ATS, 9-6 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 25/1


The Seahawks stayed alive in the NFC playoff race by knocking off the Cowboys as 4 ½-point road underdogs last week, 21-12 to snap a two-game skid. Seattle racked up only 136 yards of offense, but if the Seahawks win on Sunday coupled with a Falcons’ loss to Carolina, Pete Carroll’s team will return to the playoffs for the sixth straight season. The Seahawks have slumped to a 1-3 ATS record as a home favorite this season, while losing in three of the past four home matchups with the Cardinals.


Best Bet: Cardinals +9 ½


Jaguars at Titans (-3, 42) – 4:25 PM EST


Jacksonville
Record: 10-5 SU, 9-6 ATS, 8-7 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 16/1


Unfortunately, the Jaguars have nothing to play for as they wrapped up the AFC South title last Sunday thanks to Tennessee’s home defeat to Los Angeles. Jacksonville was tripped up at surging San Francisco, 44-33 to snap a three-game winning streak. The defense hit a flat spot following a three-game stretch of allowing a total of 41 points, while falling to 1-3 against NFC West opponents. The home team had won six consecutive meetings in this series prior to Tennessee’s 37-16 blowout at Jacksonville in Week 2.


Tennessee
Record: 8-7 SU, 7-7-1 ATS, 9-6 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 125/1


The Titans saved their losing for the worst time after winning six of seven games, as Tennessee tries to snap a three-game skid on Sunday. Granted, the three defeats came by a total of 11 points a trio of NFC West squads (Arizona, San Francisco, Los Angeles), but the Titans control their destiny as a victory against Jacksonville gets them in the playoffs. The Titans own a solid 4-1 ATS record the last five games, while going 4-1 inside AFC South play this season.


Best Bet: Jaguars +3


Bills (-2 ½, 42) at Dolphins – 4:25 PM EST


Buffalo
Record: 8-7 SU, 8-6-1 ATS, 8-7 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 125/1


The Bills have gone through plenty of ups and downs this season as Buffalo sits on the doorstep of their first playoff berth since 1999. However, Buffalo needs a victory plus a Baltimore loss, or a win and losses by Tennessee and Los Angeles. The Bills cruised past the Dolphins in Week 15 at home, 24-16, but Buffalo has struggled on the road this season by compiling a 2-5 mark. Buffalo has lost two of its past three visits to Miami, while dropping four straight road games inside the AFC East.


Miami
Record: 6-9 SU, 5-8-2 ATS, 8-7 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: OFF


A lost season for the Dolphins comes to a conclusion on Sunday as Miami tries to avoid a 10-loss campaign. Miami has won two straight home games, including a 27-20 triumph over New England as 10 ½-point underdogs. The Dolphins can finish 5-3 at Hard Rock Stadium with a victory over the Bills, but Miami has compiled a dreadful 2-6-1 ATS record in the final nine games. Miami has been one of the top OVER teams in the league down the stretch by hitting the OVER in eight of the final 10 games.


Best Bet: Dolphins +2 ½


Raiders at Chargers (-7 ½, 42 ½) – 4:25 PM EST


Oakland
Record: 6-9 SU, 5-8-2 ATS, 10-5 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: OFF


The Raiders are stumbling to the finish line by losing their last three games, including a 19-10 setback at Philadelphia on Monday as 10-point underdogs. In all eight of Oakland’s defeats, the Raiders have been limited to 17 points or less, while cashing six consecutive UNDERS. In one of those low-scoring setbacks, the Raiders fell to the Chargers at the Coliseum, 17-16 in Week 6 as three-point favorites. Each of the past four meetings between the Raiders and Chargers have been decided by three points or less, while the Silver and Black will be playing in Los Angeles for the first time since moving away after the 1994 season.


Los Angeles
Record: 8-7 SU, 7-7-1 ATS, 11-4 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 66/1


Even if the Chargers fall short of the playoffs, it has been a remarkable turnaround following an 0-4 start. L.A. has posted an 8-3 record the last 11 games, including four consecutive victories at the StubHub Center. The Chargers are riding a five-game UNDER streak after squeezing past the Jets last Sunday, 14-7, while the Lightning Bolts have scored 19 points or fewer in three of the previous four games.

Best Bet: Chargers -7 ½