Cnotes 2017 NFL Trends/Stats/News/Picks Thru The Super Bowl

[CNOTES]

NFL opening line report: Steelers take early money as road faves in Week 4
Patrick Everson


"The public will be all over Pittsburgh coming off its loss, and the early smart money has been too."


Week 3 of the NFL season was a huge one for the underdogs, who had gone 11-4 ATS heading into the Monday nighter, including seven outright winners. Will the pups keep it up in Week 4? We check in on the opening lines of four matchups, with insights from Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.


Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (+2)

These two teams are coming off stunning losses in Week 3, heading into this clash of NFC North rivals at 1 p.m. ET Sunday. Pittsburgh, among the favorites to challenge New England for the AFC title, was on the road for the second time in three weeks and had another substandard showing against a subpar outfit. The Steelers (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) lost to Chicago 23-17 in overtime as a 7-point favorite.


It was arguably much worse for Baltimore, especially since the flight home was far longer. The Ravens (2-1 SU and ATS) went to Jacksonville’s second home – London – as a 3-point favorite and left on the very short end of a 44-7 trampling.


“The public doesn’t want to bet on Baltimore. The offense is mundane, and the squares don’t like to bet on good defenses,” Cooley said. “At some point, we’ll probably see some value players get behind a Ravens team that was absolutely embarrassed. The public will be all over Pittsburgh coming off its loss, and the early smart money has been too.”


Indeed, the number bumped to Steelers -2.5 Sunday night.

Carolina Panthers at New England Patriots (-8)


New England has played two games at home this season and is fortunate to have split those contests. The Patriots (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) got all they could handle from Houston on Sunday, needing a last-minute Tom Brady-to-Brandin Cooks 25-yard touchdown pass to post a 36-33 win as a heavy 13.5-point home chalk.


Carolina lost tight end Greg Olsen to a broken foot in Week 2, and the hits kept coming in Week 3 as Kelvin Benjamin left in the first half with a knee injury. Benjamin’s injury is not thought to be serious, but the Panthers (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) got drubbed by New Orleans 34-13 as a 5-point home fave.

“We were certainly going to be north of a touchdown, and this one could shoot up sooner rather than later,” Cooley said of the line for Panthers-Pats. “It will be interesting to see if the Panthers can get out of their offensive funk.”

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (no line)


Both these AFC West rivals were road favorites in Week 3 and ended up on the short side, on the scoreboard and for bettors. Oakland (2-1 SU and ATS) had its roll slowed at Washington in a 27-20 loss as a 3.5-point favorite, while Denver (2-1 SU and ATS) – coming off an impressive home win over Dallas – looked unimpressive in a 26-16 loss at Buffalo laying 3.5 points.


Since Oakland was in the Sunday nighter, Bookmaker.eu held off on setting a line, though Cooley had an opinion.


“Look for the Broncos to be short chalk at home,” he said. “Denver certainly has a distinct advantage at Mile High, but our ratings have the Raiders a few spots higher in the pecking order.”

Washington Redskins at Kansas City Chiefs (-7)


Kansas City is looking a lot like the team that went 12-4 SU in the regular season last year. For the second time in three weeks, the Chiefs (3-0 SU and ATS) won and cashed on the road, this time besting the Los Angeles Chargers 24-10 as a 3-point chalk.


Washington (2-1 SU and ATS) also looked plenty sharp in Week 3, knocking off Oakland 27-10 as a 3.5-point home underdog in the Sunday night contest.

“Again, we’ll make sure nothing significant occurs regarding injuries with Washington, but Kansas City will be a healthy favorite regardless,” Cooley said. “The Chiefs look to be one of the best teams in the league early in this season, and bettors are taking notice. We’ll open K.C. as 6- to 7-point chalk.”


Indeed, when the line opened for this Monday night contest it hit the board with the Chiefs installed as 7-point home favorites.

 

[CNOTES]

Wiseguys are advising that these Week 4 NFL lines are going to move
Art Aronson


Game to bet now


New York Giants at Tampa Bay (-4)


Has a team ever stayed in the locker room for the national anthem and then decided not to come out for the game? It may be getting close to that point for the 0-3 Giants, who had hopes of making the NFC East into a two-team race with the Cowboys and now are rotting at the bottom of the division.


The main problem for the Giants is that they can’t score (fewest points in the conference), and the main problem for the offense it that it can’t move the ball on the ground. At all. New York broke out with 24 points in the fourth quarter against Philadelphia on Sunday, but had scored only 13 total in the previous 11 periods.


An 0-3 hole is bad enough, but 0-4 is toxic for a team that was thinking division title less than a month ago.


Game to wait on


Pittsburgh at Baltimore (+2.5)


Seems like every game these teams have played for the last decade has featured a line in the 2.5 to 3.5-point range. This one is no different.


Neither team has shown enough to be considered the early favorite to be the alpha dog in the AFC North, and the Ravens in particular are wondering what hit them in London last Sunday when the Jags put a 37-point beating on them. Baltimore is not that used to those types of beatdowns. Ravens fans have to be wondering what the heck is going on with Joe Flacco, who threw for just 28 yards on Sunday and was picked twice before giving way to Ryan Mallett.


Maybe the Ravens will be able to run the ball against the Steelers’ shaky defense, which gave up 220 of their own on the ground in losing to the Bears.


Might be worth waiting on this one to see if any early money surge causes the books to budge on the half-point one way or the other.


Total to watch


Buffalo at Atlanta (48.5)


Interesting study in contrasts at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Georgia, where the high-flying Falcons are off to a 3-0 start and hope to start creating a little separation in the NFC South. The Falcons have shrugged off their Super Bowl loss and again boast one of the best offense in the league.


The Bills, meanwhile, are 2-1 and doing it with defense. Two of their games have gone under, and Sunday’s victory over Denver barely covered the minuscule 40 posted by books. Buffalo has a very soft schedule after this one, and doesn’t have to face the suddenly-vulnerable Patriots until December.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Long Sheet


Week 4


Thursday, September 28


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CHICAGO (1 - 2) at GREEN BAY (2 - 1) - 9/28/2017, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 7-22 ATS (-17.2 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CHICAGO is 47-72 ATS (-32.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 107-78 ATS (+21.2 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 182-128 ATS (+41.2 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 2-2 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 3-1 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, October 1


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NEW ORLEANS (1 - 2) vs. MIAMI (1 - 1) - 10/1/2017, 9:30 AM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) against AFC East division opponents since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CAROLINA (2 - 1) at NEW ENGLAND (2 - 1) - 10/1/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 109-78 ATS (+23.2 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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LA RAMS (2 - 1) at DALLAS (1 - 1) - 10/1/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS is 53-76 ATS (-30.6 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
LA RAMS is 176-226 ATS (-72.6 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 176-226 ATS (-72.6 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 85-114 ATS (-40.4 Units) in road games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 85-114 ATS (-40.4 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 126-178 ATS (-69.8 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS is 18-36 ATS (-21.6 Units) against NFC East division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DETROIT (2 - 1) at MINNESOTA (2 - 1) - 10/1/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 2-2 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 2-2 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TENNESSEE (2 - 1) at HOUSTON (1 - 2) - 10/1/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 3-1 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 3-1 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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JACKSONVILLE (2 - 1) at NY JETS (1 - 2) - 10/1/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 1-0 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 1-0 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CINCINNATI (0 - 3) at CLEVELAND (0 - 3) - 10/1/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 71-98 ATS (-36.8 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
CLEVELAND is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 4-0 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 4-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PITTSBURGH (2 - 1) at BALTIMORE (2 - 1) - 10/1/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 57-35 ATS (+18.5 Units) in October games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 3-0 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 3-1 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BUFFALO (2 - 1) at ATLANTA (3 - 0) - 10/1/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 14-28 ATS (-16.8 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NY GIANTS (0 - 3) at TAMPA BAY (1 - 1) - 10/1/2017, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 52-33 ATS (+15.7 Units) in road games off a division game since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 1-0 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 1-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHILADELPHIA (2 - 1) at LA CHARGERS (0 - 3) - 10/1/2017, 4:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SAN FRANCISCO (0 - 3) at ARIZONA (1 - 1) - 10/1/2017, 4:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 2-2 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 4-0 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OAKLAND (2 - 1) at DENVER (2 - 1) - 10/1/2017, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 55-36 ATS (+15.4 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
OAKLAND is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 2-2 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 2-2 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANAPOLIS (1 - 2) at SEATTLE (1 - 2) - 10/1/2017, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 30-16 ATS (+12.4 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 32-60 ATS (-34.0 Units) in October games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Monday, October 2


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WASHINGTON (2 - 1) at KANSAS CITY (3 - 0) - 10/2/2017, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 32-16 ATS (+14.4 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 43-24 ATS (+16.6 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL


Week 4


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Thursday, September 28


9:25 PM
CHICAGO vs. GREEN BAY
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
Chicago is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
Green Bay is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Green Bay's last 10 games




Sunday, October 1


10:30 AM
NEW ORLEANS vs. MIAMI
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games on the road
Miami is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Miami is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games

2:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. HOUSTON
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Tennessee's last 16 games
Tennessee is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Houston
Houston is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games at home
Houston is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games

2:00 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. BALTIMORE
Pittsburgh is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games
Pittsburgh is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Baltimore is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

2:00 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. NY JETS
Jacksonville is 3-11 SU in its last 14 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 6 games when playing NY Jets
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Jets last 5 games
NY Jets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games when playing at home against Jacksonville

2:00 PM
DETROIT vs. MINNESOTA
Detroit is 2-4-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
Detroit is 3-16 SU in its last 19 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games at home
Minnesota is 16-6 SU in its last 22 games at home

2:00 PM
BUFFALO vs. ATLANTA
Buffalo is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Buffalo's last 15 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games at home
Atlanta is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

2:00 PM
LOS ANGELES vs. DALLAS
Los Angeles is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Dallas
Los Angeles is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 7 games when playing Los Angeles
Dallas is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games

2:00 PM
CINCINNATI vs. CLEVELAND
Cincinnati is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Cincinnati is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games when playing Cincinnati
Cleveland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati

2:00 PM
CAROLINA vs. NEW ENGLAND
Carolina is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games on the road
Carolina is 4-8-1 ATS in its last 13 games on the road
New England is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games
New England is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home

5:05 PM
NY GIANTS vs. TAMPA BAY
NY Giants are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games on the road
NY Giants are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games
Tampa Bay is 0-5 SU in their last 5 games when playing NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Tampa Bay's last 10 games when playing NY Giants

5:05 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. LOS ANGELES
Philadelphia is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Los Angeles
Philadelphia is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Los Angeles
Los Angeles is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Los Angeles is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home

5:05 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. ARIZONA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing Arizona
San Francisco is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Arizona
Arizona is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Arizona is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games

5:25 PM
OAKLAND vs. DENVER
Oakland is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Oakland is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games
Denver is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 games at home

9:30 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. SEATTLE
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Indianapolis's last 9 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
Seattle is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis




Monday, October 2

9:30 PM
WASHINGTON vs. KANSAS CITY
Washington8-3-1 SU in its last 12 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games
Kansas City is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up


Week 4


Thursday's game
Bears (1-2) @ Packers (2-1)— Pack trailed all three games at halftime this year; they allowed a defensive TD in last two games. Green Bay won both its home games, by 8-3 points; they’re 12-2 in last 14 meetings; teams split last four games played here. Chicago got its first win last week, beating Steelers in OT; since 2012, Bears are 10-20-1 vs spread coming off a win, 5-12-1 in last 18 NFC North road games— they’re 7-8-1 as a road underdog under Fox, losing 29-7 (+7) at Tampa Bay in only road game this year. Packers are 15-8-2 vs spread in last 25 home games. Under is 12-6 in last 18 games at Lambeau Field. NFL-wide, home favorites are 3-5-1 vs spread in divisional games. Under is 3-0 in Chicago games

 

[CNOTES]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 4
Monty Andrews


Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets (+3.5, 39.5)


Jaguars' red-zone success vs. Jets' leaky downfield D


Two teams that outscored their opponents by a combined 51 points in Week 3 will lock horns this weekend as the New York Jets entertain Jacksonville. The Jaguars were the surprise of the weekend, rolling to a 44-7 throttling of the Baltimore Ravens in London, while the Jets stunned the football world by cruising to a 20-6 triumph over Miami. Jacksonville has the edge in this one according to oddsmakers, due at least in part to a sensational red-zone record through the first three weeks of the season.


Jacksonville came into the season facing serious question marks on offense, but quarterback Blake Bortles and rookie running back Leonard Fournette have put those concerns to rest - at least for now. The Jaguars come into Week 4 having scored touchdowns on two-thirds of their drives into the red-zone - putting them in the top third league-wide. Bortles already has six TD passes on the young season, while Fournette has three rushing scores to kick off his NFL career.


The Jets dominated play from start to finish against the Dolphins last week, surrendering only a last-second touchdown catch from DeVante Parker. But things haven't been so rosy overall, with New York surrendering touchdowns on 77.8 percent of opponent visits to the red zone. It's among the worst marks on the season, and represents a significant step back after the Jets allowed red-zone TDs on 56.9 percent of opponent red-zone trips in 2016.


Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (+3, 43)


Steelers' second-half stinginess vs. Ravens' reeling offense


The Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens are both coming off stunning losses - and are looking for answers as they face off Sunday afternoon at M&T Bank Stadium. The Steelers lost a 23-17 overtime stunner to the Chicago Bears, while the Ravens were on the wrong end of a Jacksonville scoring spree overseas. This one is expected to be close - and that favors the Steelers, who have been one of the toughest teams to score against in the second half of games.


The Steelers were burned by a Jordan Howard rushing score in OT, but prior to that they had dominated teams after the half. Pittsburgh has allowed a paltry 17 points in the third and fourth quarters of their first three games of 2017, with the 5.7 second-half points per game against representing the third-lowest rate in the NFL. The Steelers have been even more impressive over the past two contests, allowing a combined six points in the third and fourth quarters against Minnesota and Chicago.


That bodes poorly for a Baltimore offense that has come out of the halftime break a slumbering mess to start the year. The Ravens have scored a combined 13 points in the second half of their first three games, with seven of those coming on a meaningless touchdown in the fourth quarter of the Jacksonville loss. Quarterback Joe Flacco has been the biggest culprit, amassing just 84 passing yards in the second half of two-plus games; he was pulled in London in favor of Ryan Mallett.


Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (+1.5, 44)


Titans' elite pass protection vs. Texans' leaky O-line


The Tennessee Titans' offense has come alive after a slow start to the season, and Marcus Mariota and Co. will look to carry that momentum into Sunday's AFC South encounter with the Houston Texans. Tennessee has scored 70 combined points in victories over the Jaguars and Seattle Seahawks, and will look to tame another impressive defense on the strength of an offensive line that has managed to give Mariota all the time he needs to burn the opposition.


Tennessee boasted a top-12 pass protection unit last season, limiting foes to a 5.26 percent sack rate. Things have been a whole lot better through the first three weeks of the 2017 campaign, with Mariota going down on just 1.96 percent of dropbacks - the best rate in football. Blessed with more clean pockets than any starting quarterback in the NFL, Mariota has taken full advantage, completing 60 percent of his passes for 696 yards with three touchdown passes and just one interception.


Rookie Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson would probably give anything for protection like that. Unfortunately, he finds himself at the other end of the spectrum; Houston is surrendering sacks on a whopping 13.89 percent of dropbacks, the worst rate in the league. And while many of those sacks were allowed in a season-opening loss to the Jaguars, the five sacks allowed per game is still miles ahead of the 1.9 mark Houston posted a season ago.


Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Chargers (-1, 47.5)


Eagles' elite time of possession vs. Chargers' TOP turmoil


With Chip Kelly at the helm, the Philadelphia Eagles were perennially one of the worst teams in the NFL in time of possession. But this is a new team - and with it, a new set of habits as the Eagles look to take charge of a competitive NFC East with a win over the host Chargers. Philadelphia is off to a sensational start on offense, and will look to control the play against a Chargers team that hasn't had the ball nearly as much as it would like through the first three weeks of 2017.


With top-10 rankings in both passing (252.7) and rushing yards per game (119.3), it's easy to see why the Eagles have been able to control the ball so effectively. Philadelphia's 34:12 time-of-possession average ranks 12 seconds ahead of the runner-up Carolina Panthers; that's nothing new to the Eagles, who led the league in that category a season ago after finishing dead last in each of the previous three seasons.


The Chargers finished with a modest edge in time of possession last season (30:21), but will be hard-pressed to match that success in 2017. Los Angeles comes into the week ranked among the league's bottom feeders at just 27:19 per game. After ranking 26th in rushing yards per game a season ago, the Chargers are 27th through three games - and at a woeful 30.3-percent conversion rate on third down, Los Angeles isn't extending drives, either. A similar effort Sunday could lead to a one-sided TOP result.

 

[CNOTES]

NFL
Dunkel


Week 4


Thursday, September 28

Chicago @ Green Bay


Game 101-102
September 28, 2017 @ 8:25 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Chicago
127.211
Green Bay
137.756
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Green Bay
by 10 1/2
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Green Bay
by 7
45
Dunkel Pick:
Green Bay
(-7); Over




Sunday, October 1

New Orleans @ Miami


Game 251-252
October 1, 2017 @ 9:30 am


Dunkel Rating:
New Orleans
137.247
Miami
123.642
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
by 13 1/2
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 2 1/2
49 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New Orleans
(-2 1/2); Over


Carolina @ New England


Game 253-254
October 1, 2017 @ 1:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Carolina
131.642
New England
139.179
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 7 1/2
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 9
49
Dunkel Pick:
Carolina
(+9); Under


LA Rams @ Dallas


Game 255-256
October 1, 2017 @ 1:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
LA Rams
127.553
Dallas
130.534
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Dallas
by 3
45
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Dallas
by 6 1/2
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA Rams
(+6 1/2); Under


Detroit @ Minnesota


Game 257-258
October 1, 2017 @ 1:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Detroit
134.533
Minnesota
137.878
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 3 1/2
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
N/A


Tennessee @ Houston


Game 259-260
October 1, 2017 @ 1:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Tennessee
133.535
Houston
133.432
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
Even
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tennessee
by 2 1/2
44
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(+2 1/2); Under


Jacksonville @ NY Jets


Game 261-262
October 1, 2017 @ 1:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Jacksonville
133.897
NY Jets
132.353
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Jacksonville
by 1 1/2
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Jacksonville
by 3 1/2
40
Dunkel Pick:
NY Jets
(+3 1/2); Under


Cincinnati @ Cleveland


Game 263-264
October 1, 2017 @ 1:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Cincinnati
128.429
Cleveland
127.395
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cincinnati
by 1
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cincinnati
by 3
41 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Cleveland
(+3); Under


Pittsburgh @ Baltimore


Game 265-266
October 1, 2017 @ 1:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Pittsburgh
133.551
Baltimore
127.661
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 6
39
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
by 3
42
Dunkel Pick:
Pittsburgh
(-3); Under


Buffalo @ Atlanta


Game 267-268
October 1, 2017 @ 1:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Buffalo
132.398
Atlanta
145.490
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 13
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
by 8
48 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(-8); Under


NY Giants @ Tampa Bay


Game 269-270
October 1, 2017 @ 4:05 pm


Dunkel Rating:
NY Giants
133.365
Tampa Bay
128.481
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Giants
by 5
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tampa Bay
by 3
44
Dunkel Pick:
NY Giants
(+3); Over


Philadelphia @ LA Chargers


Game 271-272
October 1, 2017 @ 4:05 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
135.510
LA Chargers
130.567
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 5
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Chargers
by 2 1/2
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(+2 1/2); Over


San Francisco @ Arizona


Game 273-274
October 1, 2017 @ 4:05 pm


Dunkel Rating:
San Francisco
120.689
Arizona
132.248
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arizona
by 11 1/2
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arizona
by 6 1/2
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Arizona
(-6 1/2); Under


Oakland @ Denver


Game 275-276
October 1, 2017 @ 4:25 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Oakland
129.483
Denver
136.684
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Denver
by 7
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Denver
by 2 1/2
47
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(-2 1/2); Under


Indianapolis @ Seattle


Game 277-278
October 1, 2017 @ 8:30 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Indianapolis
123.468
Seattle
139.026
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 15 1/2
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 13
41
Dunkel Pick:
Seattle
(-13); Over




Monday, October 2

Washington @ Kansas City


Game 279-280
October 2, 2017 @ 8:30 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Washington
134.236
Kansas City
145.864
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 11 1/2
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
by 6 1/2
49
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
(-6 1/2); Over

 

[CNOTES]

NFL


Thursday, September 28


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thursday Night Football Betting Preview and Odds: Bears at Packers
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-7, 45.5)


The oldest rivalry in the NFL has become one-sided in recent years, something the Chicago Bears hope to change when they pay a visit to the Green Bay Packers on Thursday night in a prime-time NFC North matchup. The Packers swept the season series last year en route to winning the division title and have captured six of the last seven matchups.


It will mark the 195th matchup between Chicago and Green Bay -- and the first where both teams are each coming off an overtime victory. Running back Jordan Howard's 19-yard touchdown run provided the exclamation point on the Bears' 23-17 victory over Pittsburgh, helping them avoid an 0-3 start for third straight season. Green Bay was seconds from a second straight defeat before Aaron Rodgers tossed a tying touchdown pass to Jordy Nelson, setting up a game-winning field goal in overtime in a 27-24 victory over visiting Cincinnati. The series could not be more evenly matched -- each team has won 93 times to go along with six ties.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, CBS, NFL Network.

POWER RANKINGS: Bears (+2.5) - Packers (-4) + home field (-3) = Packers -9.5

LINE HISTORY: The Packers opened as seven-point home favorites and by Wednesday evening many books were adding the hook to 7.5. The total hit the betting boards at 45.5 and has yet to budge.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "A black-and-blue division matchup kicks off Thursday night at Lambeau Field in the NFL when the Green Bay Packers host the Chicago Bears. The Bears haven't won consecutive games since December of 2015, going 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS following a victory in that span. Meanwhile, the bruised and battered Packers know they are 401-13 SU and 36-17 ATS at home in division play behind QB Aaron Rodgers. It appears there is only one way to look here." - Marc Lawrence.

INJURY REPORT:


Bears - LB Nick Kwiatkoski (Out, Chest), S Deon Bush (Questionable, (Hamstring), S Quintin Demps (Out, Arm), S Chris Prosinski (Questionable, Hamstring), OL Tom Compton (Probable, Hip), OL Hroniss Grasu (Questionable, Hand), OL Josh Sitton (Questionable, Ribs), LB Jerrell Freeman (I-R, Concussion), WR Kevin White (I-R, Shoulder), DB Deiondre' Hall (I-R, Hamstring), RB Ka'Deem Carey (I-R, Wrist), LS Patrick Scales (I-R, Knee), WR Cameron Meredith (I-R, ACL), C Eric Kush (I-R, Hamstring).


Packers - RB Joe Kerridge (Questionable, Calf), DE Mike Daniels (Questionable, Hip), CB Davon House (Doubtful, Quadriceps), WR Randall Cobb (Probable, Shoulder), S Kentrell Brice (Probable, Groin), RB Ty Montgomery (Probable, Wrist), T Kyle Murphy (I-R, Foot), LS Brett Goode (I-R, Hamstring), T Bryan Bulaga (Questionable, Ankle), T David Bakhtiari (Questionable, Hamstring), LB Nick Perry (Questionable, Hand), LB Jake Ryan (Questionable, Concussion), T Jason Spriggs (I-R, Hamstring), LB Vince Biegel (Out, Foot), DT Montravius Adams (I-R, Foot), T Don Barclay (I-R, Ankle), CB Demetri Goodson (PUP, ACL), G Lane Taylor (Questionable, Foot), S Marwin Evans (Questionable, Lower Body), DT Quinton Dial (Questionable, Chest), CB Herb Waters (I-R, Shoulder).

ABOUT THE BEARS (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS, 0-3 O/U): Chicago will try to run the ball for two reasons -- to keep the ball out of Rodgers' hands and alleviate the pressure on quarterback Mike Glennon, who threw for only 101 yards and a TD on 15-of-22 passing. The Bears rushed for 220 yards against the Steelers as Howard, despite dealing with an ailing shoulder, piled up 138 and two scores while electrifying rookie Tarik Cohen had 78 yards on 12 carries. With the wide receiver corps ravaged by injury, Howard and Cohen also led the team with five and four catches, respectively. Safety Quintin Demps broke his arm in Sunday's game, a blow for a defense that has only eight interceptions in each of the past two seasons.

ABOUT THE PACKERS (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS, 2-1 O/U): Rodgers is second in the league with 967 yards passing, exceeding 300 in each of the first three games, although his passer rating is below 100 for only the third time in 10 seasons since he took over as Green Bay's starter. Rodgers has attempted at least 42 passes in each game behind a banged-up offensive line, among the reasons he has been sacked a league-high 13 times. Running back Ty Montgomery, despite leading the team with 18 receptions, has rushed for only 124 yards in three games, but he carved up the Bears for a career-best 162 yards and a pair of rushing touchdowns in December. The Packers are eighth in the league, allowing 296.7 yards per game.

TRENDS:


* Bears are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.
* Under is 5-1 in Bears last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 13-3 in Packers last 16 games overall.
* Bears are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the home chalk Packers at a rate of 67 percent and the Over is picking up 64 percent of the totals action.

 

[CNOTES]

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 28


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


CHI at GB 08:25 PM


CHI +7.0 *****


U 44.0 *****

 

[CNOTES]

Bears vs. Packers score, seven takeaways: Rodgers rolls, Glennon dooms Chicago
On Thursday night, the Packers thumped their rivals from start to finish


For the first time since the prohibition, the Green Bay Packers hold bragging rights over the Chicago Bears.


On a balmy and stormy Thursday night at Lambeau Field, the shorthanded Packers beat their rivals to the south, 35-14. In the process, the Packers didn't just move to 3-1 on the season and the top of the NFC North, they also took a 95-94-6 all-time series lead over the Bears, who dropped to 1-3 with the loss.


The last time the Packers owned an advantage in the series? 1933.


The game didn't officially end until after midnight, but by roughly 8:45 p.m. ET, it was over. That's how poorly the night went for the Bears, who continually insist on trying to win football games without a starting-caliber quarterback, Mike Glennon, when they have a potential franchise saving quarterback, Mitchell Trubisky, on the bench.


But we'll get to that later. First, the game itself.


The Bears won the toss, deferred, and suffered the consequences. On the opening series of the game, the Packers marched effectively downfield, using a heavy dose of runs to journey inside the red zone. On the 10th play of the 75-yard drive, Aaron Rodgers found DaVante Adams for a five-yard touchdown.


Things didn't get better for the Bears. On their first offensive snap, Glennon dropped back to pass and waited for someone to get open. Lost in whatever it was that was developing downfield, he waited and waited and waited and waited and waited and waited until Clay Matthews jarred the ball loose.


Shortly after, Rodgers hit Randall Cobb in the end zone on a sweet route for another short touchdown pass, extending their lead to 14 points. The Bears gave the Packers the ball again on their ensuing drive when center Cody Whitehair snapped the ball into Glennon's knee, as the quarterback wasn't ready for the snap. The Packers recovered the loose ball.


And that's how the night went for the Bears. The only time they weren't getting slaughtered by the Packers? During a 47-minute lightning delay in between the first and second quarters.


When the bloodbath was over, the Packers had earned a 21-point victory, bragging rights over the Bears, and a momentary spot atop the NFC North standings. On Thursday night -- yes, against a bad team -- the Packers looked like the Super Bowl contender many thought they'd be entering the season.


Aaron Rodgers is still a dragon


Breaking: Rodgers is still amazing at playing quarterback. On Thursday night, Rodgers went 18 of 26 for 179 yards, four touchdowns, no picks, and a 128.0 passer rating.


A week ago, Rodgers started slow against the Bengals. But he didn't waste any time burying the Bears.


After handing the ball off to Ty Montgomery on the first three plays from scrimmage, he proceeded to do what he does best: shred the Bears. The Packers' first drive ended with what appeared to a run-pass option. Rodgers chose to throw the ball, finding Adams for the game's first score.


After Glennon's first fumble, Rodgers made it 14-0 with another short touchdown toss, this time to Cobb.


So in less than half a quarter, Rodgers had already racked up two touchdowns. And that's how the Packers put the Bears in an early two-touchdown deficit.


And then, things slowed down. The Bears' defense, which shouldn't be blamed for the second touchdown considering the hole they were put in by their quarterback, held up. They kept the Bears in the game, forcing three straight punts. Until Glennon struck again, throwing an awful pick.


On the next play, Rodgers then did more Rodgers stuff, completing a bonkers pass to Jordy Nelson for a 58-yard gain.


The drive ended with a rushing touchdown, so Rodgers didn't complete the first half hat trick. That was pretty much the only disappointing part of the night for him.


He got his hat trick in the third quarter. His third touchdown went to his favorite target Jordy Nelson.


That touchdown ended any hope that the Bears might've been clinging to. And as we all know, rebellions are built on hope. Without any hope, the Bears folded, entering an early state hibernation.


Rodgers' fourth touchdown went to Nelson, who was apparently wearing an invisibility cloak


In fairness, even Glennon probably could've thrown that one.


2. A Glennon-sized disaster


Mike Glennon is the reason why the Bears have no hope.


Glennon is a very tall human being. The Bears' website lists him at 6-foot-6. He is not, however, a very good starting quarterback in the NFL. He's proven that through the first three games of the season. And he proved it again on Thursday night.


After his two fumbles in the first quarter, he -- unlike Rodgers -- completed his first half hat-trick ... in turnovers. Here's turnover No. 3, an interception thrown to Ha Ha Clinton-Dix:


You'll notice that Glennon's receiver was actually wide open on the play. That should've been a decent-sized gain to set up a third-and-manageable. Instead, it was a turnover, which led to a Packers touchdown.


At least Glennon is consistent, though.


He did, at least, respond at the end of the half. Trailing 21-0, Glennon led a seven-play, 72-yard drive that ended with a scoring toss to Kendall Wright just before halftime. It was a nice one, too.


That's where the good stopped. The Bears appeared to mount a halfway decent drive to begin the second half, using no-huddle, but penalties killed the series. After the Packers took a 28-7 lead, Glennon responded by -- you guessed it -- throwing another interception, the kind of interception that left us all wondering if Glennon is actually a Packers double-agent doing his best to bring down the Bears.


Well, mission accomplished.


Glennon's final stat line looked better than he performed: 21 of 33 for 218 yards, one touchdown, two picks, two fumbles, and a 67.5 passer rating.


3. Packers shut down Bears' running game


In Week 3, the explosive running back duo of Jordan Howard (the workhorse) and Tarik Cohen (the smaller, shiftier, but more elusive back) single-handedly pushed the Bears past the Steelers in overtime, combining for 268 yards and two touchdowns. The duo was nearly shut out by the Packers.


Howard and Cohen totaled 111 yards and one touchdown, which came in garbage time, along with a bunch of their yards. They were bottled up. Obviously, the Packers' offense putting up 35 points and leaping out to an early 14-0 lead impacted the Bears' running game, but the Packers' defense, which was missing arguably its best player in defensive tackle Mike Daniels, deserves a ton of credit. They were stellar against one of the best ground assaults in football.


4. Packers overcome injuries
Mike Daniels wasn't the only Green Bay player missing. So were left tackle David Bakhtiari and right Bryan Bulaga.


Yet the Packers' offensive line held up in pass protection and in run blocking. That's a great job by a makeshift offensive line against a foe that prides itself on its front seven.
The injuries didn't stop there. Montgomery went to the locker room with a chest injury during the first series of the game. He never returned. According to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport, he broke his ribs.




More trouble: On the Packers' first offensive play in the second quarter after the lengthy delay, Montgomery's backup, Jamaal Williams,went down with a knee injury. He also didn't return. Replacing the Packers' first two running backs, Aaron Jones rushed for 49 yards and a touchdown on 13 carries. He could be a hot commodity on the Fantasy Football waiver wire next week.


The worst of the injuries happened to Adams in the third quarter. After catching a screen on third-and-goal, Adams was wrapped up by the Bears' defense when inside linebacker Danny Trevathan head-shotted him so hard that his mouthpiece ejected itself out of his place. Immediately, players signaled for the trainers.


Adams was eventually carted off the field, giving a thumbs-up on the way out. According to the Packers, he was taken to the hospital for testing, but he did have movement in his extremities.


Hopefully Adams is OK after taking a completely dirty and unnecessary hit from Trevathan, who inexplicably wasn't booted from the game. There's no place for that kind of hit in football. Trevathan could, however, face a fine and a suspension.
And kudos to the Packers for coming away with a short-handed win.


5. National anthem tracker
Before the game, Rodgers asked fans to join the Packers by standing and linking arms during the national anthem to demonstrate unity. Most of the fans didn't join in, but both the Packers and Bears did link arms on their respective sidelines during the national anthem.


Here's a look at the Bears' sideline:


6. What's next?


The Packers, at 2-1, will head to Dallas for a date with the Cowboys a week from Sunday. Meanwhile, the 1-3 Bears will host the Vikings on Week 5 of "Monday Night Football," which means they have a lengthy gap between games. It's practically a mini-bye week for the Bears.
And that leads us to ...


7. It's time to start Mitchell Trubisky


The Glennon era needs to end in Chicago. I've written about this before -- after Week 1. Nothing has changed since then. Sure, the Bears won a game over the Steelers. But Glennon did nothing positive during that win. The Bears won despite him.
What the first four games of the season prove is that the Glennon experiment failed. It was a bad idea to begin with -- to give a long-time backup quarterback $18.5 million guaranteed -- and it's a bad idea today.


Glennon is not a starting-caliber quarterback in the NFL. He turns the ball over a ton, he's allergic to throwing downfield, and he's a statue in the pocket. The Bears, with their dominant ground game and lack of talented receivers, could use a quarterback with actual athleticism, mobility, and upside. That quarterback is the quarterback the Bears loved so much in the draft they traded up one spot to grab him with the second-overall pick. That quarterback is Mitchell Trubisky.


The timing makes sense. The Bears don't play again until Oct. 9. This is the time to make the move.

 

[CNOTES]

Packers WR Adams stretchered off field
September 28, 2017


GREEN BAY, Wis. -- Green Bay Packers receiver Davante Adams was carried off the field on a gurney after a helmet-to-helmet hit by Chicago Bears linebacker Danny Trevathan late in the third quarter of the Thursday night game.


Adams was being evaluated for a concussion and a neck injury, according to the team. He was conscious with movement in all of his extremities, and he was taken to a hospital for further testing.


On third-and-goal from the 16, quarterback Aaron Rodgers connected with Adams at about the 10-yard line. As Adams fought for extra yardage, Trevathan drilled Adams in the head with the crown of his helmet. Adams' mouthpiece flew out of his mouth as he fell to the ground. Fellow receivers Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb immediately waved the training staff onto the field.


After being down for several minutes, Adams was carried off the field. He raised his thumb to the crowd as he approached to the locker room.


Trevathan was penalized but not ejected. The Packers scored on the next play, with Rodgers finding Nelson all alone. Nelson scored and immediately took a knee in prayer.


********************


Packers' RB Ty Montgomery knocked out of Bears game
September 28, 2017

GREEN BAY, Wis. (AP) Packers receiver Davante Adams was taken off the field on a stretcher with about 4 minutes left in the third quarter against the Chicago Bears on Thursday night after getting hit in the head during a tackle by Danny Trevathan.


The game was delayed for about 5 minutes while medical personnel tended to Adams. He gave a thumbs-up signal as he was wheeled off the field.


The Packers said Adams was conscious and taken to a hospital for evaluation for possible head and neck injuries, and that he had feeling in all of his extremities.


Trevathan was called for an unnecessary roughness penalty following Adams' 8-yard catch to the Chicago 8.


Packers starting running back Ty Montgomery was knocked out in the first quarter with a chest injury. Montgomery had five carries for 28 yards on the opening series of the game before leaving with about 10 minutes left in the first quarter.


He was replaced by rookie Jamaal Williams, who was knocked out midway through the second quarter with a knee injury. Linebacker Joe Thomas also the game with an ankle injury.


The Packers led 28-7 in a game that was also delayed about 45 minutes between the first and second quarters because of a lightning storm. Both teams were coming off overtime wins Sunday.


Green Bay in particular has been hit hard by injuries this season. The Packers had to shuffle their offensive line with starting tackles David Bakhtiari (hamstring) and Bryan Bulaga (ankle) already out with injuries.

 

[CNOTES]

Packers, Bears embrace patriotism, not protest during anthem
September 28, 2017


GREEN BAY, Wis. -- Thursday's national anthem before the Green Bay Packers' game against the Chicago Bears was filled with patriotism rather than protest.


As a 40-yard-long flag was displayed at the middle of the field, fans at Lambeau Field rose with a rousing ovation and chants of "USA! USA!"


Players from both teams stood on their sidelines, arms interlocked for the "Star Spangled Banner."


On Sunday, two days after President Donald Trump urged NFL owners to fire players who didn't stand for the national anthem, tight ends Martellus Bennett and Lance Kendricks and cornerback Kevin King sat on the bench as the anthem played before the game against Cincinnati.


On Tuesday, the Green Bay Packers' players put out a statement asking for the fans to join them in making a statement of "unity" during the national anthem by linking arms with fellow fans. Not many fans participated.


"I think there's been some positive conversation that's come out of it," Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers said on Tuesday. "This is about equality. This is about unity and love and growing together as a society and starting a conversation around something that may be a little bit uncomfortable for people.


"But we've got to come together and talk about these things and grow as a community, as a connected group of individuals in our society, and we're going to continue to show love and unity. This week, we're going to ask the fans to join in as well and come together and show people that we can be connected and we can grow together."

 

[CNOTES]

NFL Record For Sept......Based on 5 units ( Best Bets and Opinons )


09/28/2017.............0-2-0..............0.00%............-11.00


09/25/2017.............2-0-0............100.00%..........+10.00


09/24/2017...........16-6-0..............72.73%..........+47.00


09/21/2017.............0-2-0................0.00%...........-11.00


09/17/2017.............5-7-0..............41.67%............-13.50


09/14/2017.............0-2-0...............0.00%............-11.00


09/11/2017.............2-1-1..............66.67%...........+4.50


09/10/2017.............14-10-0...........58.33%..........+15.00


09/07/2017.............2-0-0..............100.00%.........+10.00




Totals...................41 - 30 - 1...........57.74%...........+ 40.00




Best Bets:


Date...........................ATS......TOTAL..... ..... ......O/U.......TOTAL..........TOTALS


09/28/2017.................0 - 1.....- 5.50..............0 - 1 .......- 5.50.............-11.00


09/25/2017.................1 - 0.....+5.00..............1 - 0........+5.00.............+10.00


09/24/2017.................5 - 1.....+19.50............3 - 1.........+9.50............+29.00


09/21/2017.................0 - 1.....-5.50...............0 - 1.........-5.50............. -.11.00


09/17/2017.................1 - 2......-6.00..............3 - 3........-1.50...............- 7.50


09/14/2017.................0 - 1......-5.50..............0 - 1........-5.50..............- 11.00




Best Bets Total.............7 - 6......+2.00............7 - 7.........- 3.50................- 1.50




Dog Of The Month........1 - 0


Total Of the Day...........1 - 0

 

[CNOTES]

Vegas Money Moves - Week 4
September 29, 2017


Las Vegas sports books had one of their best NFL regular season Sunday's ever in Week 3 action, which means bettors had one of their worst weeks collectively. So it's interesting to see how apprehensive they are this week in an attempt to recoup some of those loses. They certainly have a lot to think about.


Some of the angles running through the public's mind in Week 4 action are whether or not the Patriots (-9) can be trusted to cover against Carolina after almost losing at home to the Texans last week.


Or maybe the better angle is the Cowboys (-6.5) being back to proper form and handle the Rams at home.


Seattle (-13) has yet to cover this year, but the visiting Colts have no shot, right?


And of course, we all hate the Browns, so we have to bet against them whoever they play, right?


"It's been kind of a strange week of betting action so far," said CG Technology VP of risk management Jason Simbal, who noted right away that the betting public was going against their favorite punching bag.


"If the games started now, we would need Cleveland the most. We have tons of bets on the Bengals, large and small. The thought process behind it is pretty simple; the Bengals looked good at Lambeau Field last week while the Browns didn't cover."

CG books don't want to get off '3' so they've been moving the money from an opener of -3 (-115) on Sunday to -3 (-120) on Monday to -3 (-125) on Thursday. William Hill books have taken 92 percent of the cash on the game laying the Bengals, which is their largest disparity among all Week 4 games. Both these teams are winless and the Browns have been far more successful offensively than Cincy through three games, but the public used Cleveland as their go-to move last season. The Browns went 2-12 against the spread (ATS) through their first 14 games and bettors were on board with whoever they played.


"Don't fail me now, Browns, I need you more than ever to be awful again this week," is what a random bettor at any book might say while betting his parlay.


"Sharp money took the Giants at +3.5 and +3, the Saints -2.5 and Tennessee at -1 and -1.5," Simbal said while listing games that had been hit twice. "On Monday they laid -1.5 and -2.5 with Denver."


The Buccaneers are three-point home favorites against the winless Giants, the Saints are three-point favorites over the Dolphins in London (remember, 9:30 a.m. ET) and Tennessee is -2.5 at Houston. The Texans have gone 5-1-1 ATS at home against Tennessee the past seven encounters.


The interesting sharp play here is Denver being bet up to 3-point favorites against the Raiders. Oakland was a hot mess at Washington last Sunday night in a 27-10 loss and Denver QB Trevor Siemian showed he's a night and day QB home and away. One week after destroying Dallas, he made some awful rookie-type mistakes in a 26-16 loss at Buffalo.


"They (sharps) also bet a lot of totals this early in the week, which is kind of unusual for them," Simbal said. "It's the most active they've been on totals through the first four weeks."


He said the most bet totals plays were Over 47.5 in the Carolina/New England game, Under 43.5 in the Pittsburgh/Baltimore game, Under 48.5 in the Buffalo/Atlanta game and Under 47.5 in the Philadelphia/San Diego game.


The worst case four-team parlay scenario this week that the public are unified with is Cincinnati, Dallas, New England and Atlanta. If all those come in, the public will have done a good job at getting some revenge and cash from the books.

 

[CNOTES]

Best Bets - Week 4 Sides
September 28, 2017

NFL Week 4 Best Bets – Sides


We've reached the quarter-poll of the 2017 NFL season and while we've only got two unbeaten teams remaining (KC and Atlanta), there are five winless teams still scattered across the league in danger of having their 2017 season effectively done by the time we've reached October.


For organizations who had high, realistic hopes of making the playoffs this year like Cincinnati and the New York Giants, coming out of the gate winless after three weeks is quite a shock. The Bengals are in Cleveland to take on a winless Browns team so that league-wide number will be down to four teams after Week 4, while the Giants head down to Tampa Bay to face the Buccaneers.


But they aren't the only games involving clubs looking to celebrate their first victory of the year that I've got circled as strong plays this week.


Odds per - BetDSI.eu


Best Bet #1: L.A Chargers -1 (-113)


The Chargers are the only winless squad laying points (outside of that Cincinnati/Cleveland game) this week as they are at home against the Eagles. This is the third straight game at home for L.A, and while they don't exactly have much of a home-field advantage in their new digs, a third straight game at home provides a level of comfort where they should be able to halt this disastrous start.


Had the Chargers young rookie kicker made a couple more kicks late in games, L.A could be sitting at 2-1 SU this week and many bettors are quick to forget that. But we've already seen plenty of support for the Chargers from the big bettors who like to get out ahead of the pack each week by backing L.A at about a 55% clip and flipping the spread from San Diego +1.5 to it's current number of -1. When teams flip flop as favorites it's something I always take note of, and in this case I believe it's extremely warranted. L.A has to find a way to win this game if they want any chance of rebounding in 2017 as their schedule becomes much tougher over the next seven weeks.


L.A is also catching a Philly team who is coming off a dramatic last-second win over a hated division rival and spent most of their season on the road so far. The Eagles opened up with games @Washington and @KC before hosting the Giants last week and now have to go cross-country for this game against L.A. Sooner or later all that travel catches up with a team.


Finally, non-conference road games tend to be the “least” important games (for lack of a better word) for NFL franchises. Aside from the W/L aspect of it, they don't necessarily mean a whole lot in terms of tiebreaking purposes down the road, and they damn sure aren't as important as divisional games. Last week alone we saw three such franchises in the same spot Philly is in this week (on the road against non-conference opponent) and they finished with a combined 0-3 SU and ATS mark. It's not like they are bad teams either, as Pittsburgh, Seattle, and Oakland all fell victim to this tough scheduling spot a week ago.


With the Eagles just 2-7 ATS in their last nine on the road, and the Chargers on a 4-0 ATS run after losing by double digits at home, I've got no problem laying this small chalk despite the fact L.A has yet to win in 2017.


Odds per - BetDSI.eu


Best Bet #2: Cleveland Browns +3 (+102)


Personally I'd rather wait until closer to kickoff or even buy a half-point to get +3.5 on the Browns, but I could easily see them win this game outright against a Bengals team that's on the brink of a mutiny. Cincinnati had high hopes for 2017, but horrible performances the first two weeks cost them their OC, and it feels like it's only a matter of time before Marvin Lewis – who's held is position for way too long – gets canned.


Cincinnati does get LB Vontaze Burfict back after his suspension, but for all the good he can do, there is usually a very costly play or decision he makes as well. But the defense isn't really Cincinnati's biggest problem this year as the offense has been anaemic on the whole, and even when they got their first lead of the year last week against the Packers, they went into a shell with their play-calling, tried to desperately hold on, and ended up falling short. That's a fundamental flaw that comes from the top, and Bengals fans will tell you that it's been Marvin's MO for the better part of his tenure in Cincinnati. With Lewis having been around so long, it appears his message is completely lost on his players this year and this is a team that shouldn't be laying points on the road against anyone with the fragile mental state this organization is currently in.


Cleveland, for all it's youth and inexperience, appears to be on the upswing finally after some brutal years in recent memory. They are a team nobody is looking to back at a high clip this week – VegasInsider.com's betting percentage numbers show about 80% of the bets on Cincinnati so far – as the perceptions of year's past for both clubs actually, are likely a driving force behind all that Bengals support. Yet, Cleveland hung tough against Pittsburgh in their only other home game this year, and while they are 0-5 SU and ATS in their last five against the Bengals, this is the year where things actually look more chaotic and hopeless on the Bengals sideline than the Browns sideline, relative to expectations.


The Browns have to also be viewing these next two weeks as a great opportunity to get on a “winning streak” for the first time in years with the New York Jets coming to town in Week 5. They are a team that is not going to go into a “shell” with a lead as they've got rookie Deshone Kizer at QB, knowing that he'll make a few mistakes but also has the ability to make up for them down the line.


Also, Browns HC Hue Jackson came from this Bengals organization, and it would be quite fitting that a former Bengals assistant coach beats Cincinnati to finally cost Marvin his job after the Bengals have watched a handful of co-ordinators get head coaching positions after being successful under Lewis in Cincinnati the past few years.


So I've got no problem going against the grain in a spot like this as the Browns are more than capable of winning this game outright against a Bengals team that's in complete disarray right now and are probably one more bad loss away from a complete organizational shake-up.

 

[CNOTES]

Best Bets - Week 4 Totals
September 28, 2017



NFL Week 4 Best Bets – Totals


After the first two weeks of the 2017 NFL season saw the 'unders' cash at a high clip, Week 3 saw the offenses finally catch up as 'over's ruled the day.


Week 3 began with 80 points being put up by the Rams and 49ers on TNF, and while the two primetime games at the end of the week stayed low, the entire Sunday slate of daytime games finished with a 10-3 O/U mark.


Thanks to that barrage of 'overs' bettors aren't shying away from going above the posted totals on a variety of games this week. Looking at the betting percentages at VegasInsider.com for Week 4, there are seven games from Sunday's slate that have 70% or more of the action on the 'over,' but I wouldn't be so quick to think one week of high-scoring games has cured offense around the entire league.


That being said, there is at least one game this week that I expect to see plenty of points in, so let's get right to this week's best bets:


Odds per - HeritageSports.eu


Best Bet #1: Tennessee/Houston Under 43.5


This is one of those games that's getting plenty of love on the high side of the total as it's about 90% of tickets on this total coming in on the 'over.' It's easy to see why after both teams scored 30+ in their respective games last week, although Tennessee was the only one to come away with the victory



Yet, neither of these teams are built to win the majority of their games by shootout fashion as they pride themselves on running the ball and sound defensive play. Houston has gotten a bit more frisky this year offensively with rookie Deshaun Watson under center, but he's a very capable runner in his own right. Both teams should revert back to their identities this week in this all important AFC South rivalry game, and that means plenty of running plays and a clock that's continually running.


As an organization, Houston is on a 1-4 O/U run after allowing 35+ points, and you know that the defense will be pinning their ears back after such a rough performance. The Texans are also 4-10 O/U in their last 14 at home, 5-13 O/U after scoring 30+ points themselves, and 1-6 O/U after an outright loss. Houston can not afford to be 0-2 SU against division rivals this year with a loss here, so they do not want to see this one turn into a shootout.


Meanwhile, Tennessee can't be thrilled with how their own defense took their foot off the gas and let Seattle light them up in the 4th quarter a week ago. The fact that they turned a 30-14 lead entering the 4th into a 33-27 close victory had to be a wake-up call for this defense to never let up. This will be their first look at Watson as they'll see him plenty for years to come, but veteran DC Dick LeBeau has feasted on rookie signal callers throughout his career – especially during his time in Pittsburgh – and I'm sure he won't be shy about presenting numerous exotic looks to Watson all afternoon.


With this being a critical division game, and both teams bringing that level of intensity and focus to the contest, this game has 21-17 written all over it.


Odds per - HeritageSports.eu


Best Bet #2: San Francisco/Arizona Over 45


This is another division game featuring two teams that need to find a way to win. San Francisco put up 30+ on the Rams last Thursday night but were unable to complete the comeback, while Arizona dealt with miscue after miscue in a rather odd performance on MNF. The 28-17 loss to Dallas stayed 'under' the total, but the Cardinals could have easily “coached” that game much differently down the stretch, kicked a chip shot FG with about 1:30 left and then gone for the onside kick etc. A successful FG would have cashed 'over' tickets though and this week I don't believe bettors will need to wait that long to do so.


San Francisco showed a lot of spark on offense against the Rams last week, and they are 4-1 O/U the past few years when coming off a game against the Rams. This is also the first of consecutive road games for the 49ers and they are 7-1 O/U the last eight times they've been in that situation. At 0-3 SU, San Francisco is going to have to take a few chances to try and upset the Cardinals here, but that's nothing new for them away from home, as points usually come in bunches in 49ers road games. San Fran is 12-5 O/U in their last 17 games away from home, and a 5-2 O/U run in division games suggests this week's game isn't going to be any different.


From Arizona's perspective, the loss on MNF did bring some positives as they were able to move the ball up and down the field on Dallas, they just couldn't finish those drives off most of the time. That should change against a 49ers defense that was lit up by Jared Goff and the Rams a week ago, and isn't expected to be anywhere near one of the league's top units by season's end. Even though it's a short week for the Cards, their 5-1 O/U run off a SU loss, and 6-2 O/U run off a ATS loss suggests that this is a game we could end up seeing 50+ points scored.

 

[CNOTES]

Sunday's Top 5 Wagers
September 29, 2017


Is there such a thing as home field advantage?


Well we certainly saw evidence of it last weekend. That doesn’t mean that it’s a hardline rule for the 2017 season. This is the last week where you should be playing softly. After this weekend, there should be enough discernable data to seriously deep dive in to the serious business of NFL betting.


For now, here are the best five games to bet this coming weekend at BetOnline.ag!


Carolina Panthers +9 over New England Patriots (1:00 p.m. ET)


A lot of times, betting can be about numbers, but every now and then you can simply make a recommendation on a hunch. The Patriots have demolished the scoreboard throughout the season, but they’re also the worst scoring defence in the league by a mile. Their 31.7 points against per game is dead last in the stat categories.


Say what you will about Carolina, but there are some dangerous weapons here. If Cam Newton has any life in him, and is Christian McAffery is the weapons he’s supposed to be, then we’ll see it in this game. All in all, this is just too many points. That being said, if you want to take the Patriots, you are more than welcome to. They’re 13-5-2 ATS in their last 20 home stands.


Detroit Lions +2 over Minnesota Vikings (1:00 p.m. ET)


Case Keenum’s offensive explosion last weekend against Tampa has sent the oddsmakers in to a frenzy, which is totally fair. But don’t these things happen occasionally? The Vikings are an extremely talented football team with weapons all over the place, but when you’re putting the keys in the hands of Case Keenum it’s really hard to convince yourself that it’s a good bet.


The Vikings are the atypical “good at home, bad on the road” team so far this season but it’s very difficult for me to suggest that they’re better than Detroit. Almost every poll in the country suggests that the Falcons are the second best team in the league, and Detroit nearly took their lunch money if it wasn’t for the blindness of the referees.


This game will be close, but Detroit is angling up as one of the best teams in the NFL with a relentless offensive attack that just doesn’t seem to have any quit built into it. Add to the mix that the Vikings are just 1-4 ATS when playing division rivals and you know where your money should lean.


Buffalo Bills +8 over Atlanta Falcons (1:00 p.m. ET)


The fear with betting on the Bills here is simple. They’re not what you would call an explosive offense, and you virtually need to be in order to keep up with Matt Ryan playing at home. The Falcons are simply a strong play, having gone 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games. By all accounts, this is a game where you should bet firmly with the Falcons. But the Bills have been unusually scrappy and beating down on Denver was a proving ground for them.


They have the ability to stuff run games, which is secretly what Atlanta is built around. If Buffalo turns this in to a war of attrition, they can easily cover this big line. You have to pay to find out if Buffalo is good or not, so is a casual reminder that gambling is not meant for the feint of heart.

Baltimore Ravens +3 over Pittsburgh Steelers (1:00 p.m. ET)


The betting public is swaying in Pittsburgh’s direction in a classic overreaction to a weird game. The Ravens lost to the Jaguars in London and everyone was ready to hit send on their “Joe Flacco sucks” tweets before the game was even over. As bad as that game was, what we’ve learned from those London games is that they offer no long term benefits for gambling trends.


Baltimore is also 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games when playing division rivals, and there is nothing going on in Pittsburgh that suggests that this team is ready to take on anybody with a running game. Terrence West and Buck Allen are ready for big games, as the Steelers – who couldn’t beat the Bears last weekend – continue their spiral in to hell.


Denver Broncos -3 over Oakland Raiders (4:25 p.m. ET)


One of the definite things we learned last weekend was that homefield advantage is real. Denver is 8-3-2 ATS in their last 13 home games, and are also 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games with the Raiders. Oakland started off as one of the darlings of the NFL betting world, but they struggled mightily on the road in Washington. So this is an easy choice for most. Denver might be the 2017 team of “automatic bet at home, automatic bet-off on the road”.

 

[CNOTES]

Pick Six - Week 4
September 29, 2017


Week 3 Record: 5-1 SU, 5-1 ATS
Overall Record: 9-9 SU, 9-9 ATS

Panthers at Patriots (-9, 49) – 1:00 PM EST


Carolina
Record: 2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS, 2-1 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 50/1


The Panthers’ offense hasn’t scored many points recently as Carolina has been limited to 22 points the last two weeks. In an embarrassing Week 3 home setback to New Orleans, the Saints dominated the Panthers, 34-13 as five-point underdogs, while Carolina has reached the end zone once in the past two games. Carolina is listed in the ‘dog role for the first time this season, while posting a 3-1 ATS mark when receiving points on the road in 2016.


New England
Record: 2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS, 3-0 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 7/2


The Patriots pulled out a last-minute victory over the Texans last Sunday thanks to Tom Brady’s heroics by connecting with Brandin Cooks on a 25-yard touchdown strike in a 36-33 triumph. New England failed to cash as 13 ½-point favorites, but Brady continued to light up the stat sheet by throwing for 378 yards and five touchdowns. The Pats are 0-2 ATS at Gillette Stadium this season following a 7-2-1 ATS mark at home in 2016.


Best Bet: Panthers +9


Rams at Cowboys (-6 ½, 47 ½) – 1:00 PM EST


Los Angeles
Record: 2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS, 3-0 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 66/1


The Rams have been one of the early surprises at 2-1, coming off a thrilling 41-39 victory over the 49ers in Week 3. Los Angeles has eclipsed the 40-point mark twice this season, as quarterback Jared Goff has equaled his touchdown total from 2016 by tossing five TD’s, which took him eight games to reach last season. The Rams have yet to be listed in the underdog role this season, as L.A. put together a 3-7-2 ATS record as a ‘dog in 2016.


Dallas
Record: 2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS, 2-1 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 12/1


The Cowboys return home following a split on the road the last two weeks at Denver and Arizona. Dallas rallied for a 28-17 victory in the desert on Monday night behind two touchdown passes and a touchdown run from quarterback Dak Prescott. The Cowboys have stumbled to a 7-12 ATS record as a home favorite since 2014, but picked up a win in this role back in Week 1 over the Giants. Dallas has won each of the past three meetings with the Rams since 2011, including a pair of home blowouts in 2011 and 2013.


Best Bet: Cowboys -6 ½


Titans (-2 ½, 44) at Texans – 1:00 PM EST


Tennessee
Record: 2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS, 2-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 20/1


Tennessee’s offense struggled in the season opening loss to Oakland by scoring only one touchdown, but the Titans have responded by posting 70 points in the last two victories over the Jaguars and Seahawks. The Titans overcame a slow first half in each win, scoring 55 points of those 70 points following halftime, including 21 points in the third quarter of a 33-27 triumph over Seattle in Week 3. DeMarco Murray erased a poor effort in the first two weeks (69 yards) by rushing for 115 yards last Sunday, including a 75-yard scamper to give Tennessee a 16-point advantage.


Houston
Record: 1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS, 2-1 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 50/1


The Texans hung with the Patriots for 59 minutes last week, but fell short in a 36-33 defeat to fall to 1-2. Houston cashed for the second straight week as a road underdog, while limiting New England to 59 yards rushing on 20 carries. Deshaun Watson couldn’t outduel Tom Brady, but the Texans’ rookie quarterback broke the 300-yard mark and threw two touchdown passes as Houston lost at New England for the third time since the start of last season. The Texans have dominated this series over the years by winning eight of the past 10 meetings, but split the two matchups with the Titans last season.


Best Bet: Tennessee -2 ½


Bills at Falcons (-8, 48 ½) – 1:00 PM EST


Buffalo
Record: 2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS, 2-1 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 80/1


Only two teams in the NFL have covered all three games this season. Kansas City is one, while surprisingly Buffalo is the other, as the Bills are coming off a home underdog victory over the Broncos last Sunday. Buffalo’s defense has been terrific through three weeks by allowing 37 points, while giving up two touchdowns. The Bills have struggled on the road against NFC opponents the last few seasons by compiling a 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS record, including a 9-3 setback at Carolina in Week 2 as 6 ½-point underdogs.


Atlanta
Record: 3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS, 2-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 10/1


The Falcons dodged a bullet last week by holding off the Lions, 30-26, but managed a cover as three-point favorites. Atlanta gave away an early 14-point lead, but Matt Ryan hooked up with Taylor Gabriel on a 40-yard scoring connection to put the Falcons ahead for good. Ryan was intercepted three times, while Detroit’s final touchdown was wiped off the board following a review to give Atlanta its second 3-0 start in three seasons. The Falcons have won eight of their last 11 home games, but two of those defeats came to AFC opponents last season, while Atlanta has cashed the OVER in 11 consecutive home contests.


Best Bet: Falcons -8


Giants at Buccaneers (-3, 44 ½) – 4:05 PM EST


New York
Record: 0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS, 2-1 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 40/1


The Giants looked listless offensively for the first 11 quarters of the season, but New York busted out for 24 points in the fourth quarter at Philadelphia last Sunday. Unfortunately, the G-Men couldn’t hold onto a 24-21 lead as the Eagles kicked a pair of late field goals, including a 61-yarder at the gun to send New York to 0-3. The Giants covered for the first time this season as five-point underdogs, but dropped to 1-7 SU in their last eight in the role of a road ‘dog.


Tampa Bay
Record: 1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS, 1-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 40/1


After the Buccaneers blew out the Bears in their season opener, Tampa Bay’s offense was shut down at Minnesota last week, 34-17 as the Bucs trailed 21-3 at halftime and allowed nearly 500 yards of offense to the Vikings. The Bucs hope home is where the heart is as Tampa Bay has won five straight games at Raymond James Stadium since starting last season 0-4 at the friendly confines. Tampa Bay has lost five straight matchups with New York since 2006, including three consecutive home setbacks to the Giants.

Best Bet: Buccaneers -3

Raiders at Broncos (-3, 46 ½) – 4:25 PM EST


Oakland
Record: 2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS, 2-1 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 16/1


The Raiders looked solid the first two weeks of the season in victories over the Titans and Jets. However, Oakland put up a dud last Sunday night at Washington as the Redskins outgained the Raiders, 472-128 in a 27-10 drubbing. The Raiders last dropped consecutive games in the regular season back in 2015 as Jack Del Rio’s team owns a 6-0 record off a defeat in this span, while posting an 11-3 ATS mark as a road underdog the last two seasons.


Denver
Record: 2-1 SU, 1-1-1 ATS, 3-0 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 25/1


The Broncos also suffered their first loss of the season last week in a 26-16 setback at Buffalo following a pair of home victories. Denver has outgained all three of its opponents, but two Trevor Siemian interceptions and a costly Von Miller penalty cost the Broncos a chance at its third consecutive 3-0 start. Last season, the Broncos and Raiders split a pair of matchups with the home teams winning each time, as Denver has captured eight of the past 10 meetings since 2012.

Best Bet: Raiders +3

 

[CNOTES]

Sunday Night Best Bet
September 29, 2017


NFL Week 4 SNF Betting Preview
Indianapolis Colts vs Seattle Seahawks


After being spoiled by some great matchups – definitely on paper – during the first three weeks of Sunday Night Football, Week 4's game kinda falls flat.


In fairness, schedule makers were hoping this would be an Andrew Luck vs Russell Wilson non-conference showdown, but with Luck still on the shelf, this game looks like it could end up being a one-sided beatdown that Seattle fans hopes sparks the rest of the Seahawks season.


Indy is on a 2-0 ATS run entering Week 4, and with the unimpressive way Seattle has played through three weeks, there will likely be quite a few bettors willing to grab all those points with the road dog.


BetOnline.ag Odds: Seattle (-13); Total set at 41.5


It's always tempting to take double digit underdogs in today's NFL because anything can happen any given week and it's not surprising to see big favorites get conservative with a big lead late and get back-doored on the spread. According to VegasInsider.com, a little more than 60% of bettors have already grabbed all those points with Indianapolis for this game as they likely see them as way too many to lay for a 1-2 Seattle team that struggled to beat the lowly 49ers in thier only other home game.


Those same bettors have likely conveniently forgotten about the 46-9 beating the Colts took in their only road game of 2017, and although QB Jacoby Brissett wasn't responsible for most of that damage, I'm not so sure he has much more success up in Seattle either.


Public underdogs are ones I love to fade in the NFL, and as of now the Colts definitely sit as a public underdog. Granted most of the reasoning you'll here from bettors with a Colts +13 ticket in their pockets have more to do with Seattle – haven't played well all year, scraped by San Francisco, their O-Line sucks, too many points to lay – then they do with the Colts. That's not a great way to attack a NFL point spread as it speaks to the lack of strong reasons why to play ON a specific team.


Yes, the Colts have gone 2-0 ATS the last two weeks and nearly won both outright, but they beat the Cardinals and Browns at home. Neither of those teams can really compare to the level of talent Seattle has on paper, especially when you stick Seattle on their own field with one of the best home-field advantages in the game.


So while the O-line play is concerning for Seattle, they did seem to tighten things up in that regard last week against the Titans. Russell Wilson was sacked only once that game, and while the game script dictated he throw a bit more, his 373 passing yards and 4 TD's was a very positive sign that this Seahawks offense is starting to become a balanced and dynamic attack. And with Seattle's 0-3 ATS record this season another reason why a small majority are leaning towards the Colts, this is just the type of game that could end up curing everything that ails the Seahawks in one big swoop.


Indy's Jacoby Brissett is still less than a month into his tenure at Indianapolis, and the defense he's going to go up against here quite possibly could rip him to shreds. The Rams have a similar build to Seattle's defense, and that Rams front seven dominated Indy's O-Line all throughout Week 1's game.


Seattle is more then capable of doing the same thing here, the difference being Seattle's secondary is light years better then what the Rams bring to the table, and they've got a lot more continuity on the back end as well. Combine all that with the noise and energy the stadium will have for a primetime game, and I'm not sure we see more than 10 points again from this Colts team on the road.


So with Seattle on a 7-2 ATS run off a SU loss, 5-1 ATS at home against a team with a losing record on the road, and a 22-6-2 ATS mark after Russell Wilson finds his passing game and throws for 250+ yards, I've got no problem laying all this chalk on Sunday Night Football. And while this Week 4 SNF game might not have the same high-profile the first three have had, it will have one thing in common with all three of those games: the home team winning by double digits and covering the point spread.

Odds per - BetOnline.ag


Best Bet: Seattle -13

 

[CNOTES]

SNF - Colts at Seahawks
September 28, 2017


The Seattle Seahawks haven't covered a spread yet this season, but they come in Sunday night as large 13-point home favorites against the Indianapolis Colts, who are still without QB Andrew Luck. The last time the Colts were on the road they got blasted 46-9 in Week 1, but they made a QB change with Jacoby Brissett and have now covered their last two games.


The last time the Seahawks were at home was Week 2 against the 49ers, a team with a similar low rating as the Colts. Seattle was -13.5, but it took their first TD of the season late in the fourth quarter to squeak out a 12-9 win. That's their only win of the season and the Rams are currently in first-place of the NFC West.


It's been an odd few weeks watching these 2017 Seahawks. The offensive line can't open holes or pass block, they can't score -- 16 ppg ranks 27th, and the defense isn't so intimidating any more -- 146 yards rushing allowed per game ranks 30th. Head coach Pete Carroll also has to lead the league in bewildered facial expressions caught on TV. This certainly isn't the brash and confident Seahawks we've been accustomed to seeing during Carroll's years.

The question every bettor will eventually have to ask themselves is whether this is the week Seattle puts it all together and resemble the team we remember and respected. The Colts would seem like the perfect sacrificial lamb, but Brissett can make some things happen and they've made a dramatic improvement since Week 1.


Best of luck with the final betting decision made, and because it's an isolated Sunday night game, we all know we're going to have action on it no matter how unattractive the match-up is. That's in our DNA and who most of us are.


LINE MOVEMENT


When CG Technology sports books opened spreads on every game through the first 16 weeks, this match-up had the Seahawks -7 with expectations that Luck would play. When they opened the number Sunday night they came with -12.5 and on Monday morning they adjusted to -13 which is the number every book in town was using through Thursday. CG's total at 41 is the lowest with every other book at 41.5.


ROBERTS' RATING


I've got Seattle 8.5 points better than Indianapolis on a neutral field and the Seattle's field worth at least 3 points which makes my number -11.5 and possibly as high as -12 depending on how much given for one of the strongest home field edges in the league.


ANDREW LUCK'S VALUE


Part of Luck's worth rests with who his back-up is, but it winds up being 7-points to the number which is one of the highest player point values. With Luck starting, the Colts are on par with the Titans and Texans ratings within the division. Without Luck, the Colts have the worst rating in the NFL. Perhaps only Aaron Rodgers has more value to the number. Luck played in all 48 regular games his first three years, but has played in only 22 of the Colts past 35 games.


RECENT MEETINGS


They've played three times since 2005 with the latest coming at Indianapolis in 2013, Luck and Russell Wilson's second year in the league. Seattle was a 3-point road favorite and jumped out to a 12-0 lead. Marshawn Lynch and Wilson both rushed for over 100 yards and controlled most of the game, but the Colts took their first lead with 8:55 to go and ended up winning 34-28 which sent the game Over the total of 43.5.


LAST WEEK


The Colts grabbed their first win of the season last week, 31-28, at home against the Browns. Jacoby Brissett threw for 259 yards and didn't throw an interception. He threw for a TD and ran for two. T.Y. Hilton made a guarantee of sorts during the week that the Colts would win and he helped make it true with seven receptions, 153 yards and a TD. The Browns were a 1-point favorite, the first time they had been favored since 2015.


Russell Wilson threw for 373 yards and had four TDs with no interceptions last week at Tennessee, but most of it was out of desperation as Titans three third-quarter TDs put the game away and won 33-27. The eye-opener from this game was how the Titans offensive line bullied the Seahawks defensive with 195 yards rushing. Neither team had a turnover.


DIVISIONAL ODDS


Odds to win NFC West: Seattle 4/11, Rams 4/1, Cardinals 9/2, 49ers 150/1
Odds to win AFC South: Titans 5/8, Texans 4/1, Jaguars 13/4, Colts 15/1


SUPER BOWL ODDS


The Westgate opened the Colts at 25/1 to win the Super Bowl back in February with expectations that Andrew Luck would be healthy, but between him being out and the Colts looking ragged they are now 200/1 after three weeks. While the Colts are still mathematically alive, the sports books will try to tempt bettors with juicy odds. Seattle is a steady 12/1 to win the Super Bowl with the Falcons (6/1) and Packers (8/1) both having lower odds in the NFC.


NEXT WEEK


The Westgate posts next weeks lines on Tuesday each week and in Week 5 action they've got Seattle as 3-point road favorites at the Rams. The Colts are 2.5-point home favorites against the 49ers in a match-up between two of the lowest rated teams in the league.