Cnotes 2017 College Football Picks-Trends-News Etc. !

[CNOTES]

CFB notebook: Clemson, Auburn 1-2 in CFP rankings
November 28, 2017


Losses by the top two teams over the weekend caused a shakeup in this week's College Football Playoff rankings released Tuesday, and the conference championship games to be played this weekend may shake things up again.


On Friday, then-No. 2 Miami lost to Pittsburgh, and the next day No. 1 Alabama was beaten by Auburn.


As a result, Clemson (11-1) was moved to the top spot this week by the CFP panel, while Auburn (10-2), despite its two losses, rose four spots to No. 2 after recent wins over Georgia and Alabama, both of whom where No. 1 at the time. Oklahoma (11-1) advanced one spot to No. 3, and Wisconsin, one of the two unbeaten FBS teams, moved one critical spot to the No. 4 slot.


Looming just behind, at No. 5, is Alabama (11-1), which might sneak into the top four even though it is not in the Southeastern Conference championship game. At No. 6 is Georgia (11-1), which probably could win its way into the playoff with a victory over Auburn in the SEC championship game.


Miami is No. 7 in this week's rankings, but the Hurricanes would move up if they beat Clemson in the Atlantic Coast Conference title game in Charlotte, N.C.


The top four teams in the final rankings, which will be announced Sunday, participate in the national championship playoff.


--ESPN analyst Herm Edwards is interested in getting back into coaching and confirmed he will interview for the Arizona State vacancy.


Edwards hasn't coached since being fired by the Kansas City Chiefs following the 2008 season.


Former NFL executive Ray Anderson is Arizona State's athletic director and said he would consider NFL coaches in his search. The school fired Todd Graham on Sunday.


--Tennessee has turned its attention to Mike Gundy in a bid to fill its head coaching vacancy, according to multiple outlets.


Knoxville (Tenn.) radio station WNML reported about the Volunteers' interest in Gundy, who has coached at Oklahoma State for the last 13 years. Gundy met with Tennessee athletic director John Currie on Tuesday.


The talk swirling around Gundy comes two days after the Volunteers backed out of the hiring agreement involving leading candidate Greg Schiano following a public backlash and campus protests.


--Former Syracuse star running back Walter Reyes died Sunday night after experiencing stomach pain. He was 36.


Reyes reportedly complained of stomach pain for a couple days. He was transported to a hospital Sunday and died shortly after arrival. A coroner's report to determine cause of death is slated to be released in eight to 10 weeks.


Reyes played at Syracuse from 2001-04 and is the second-leading rusher in school history with 3,424 career yards.

 

[CNOTES]

Herm Edwards to interview for ASU job
November 28, 2017


ESPN analyst Herm Edwards is interested in getting back into coaching and confirmed he will interview for the Arizona State vacancy.


Edwards hasn't coached since being fired by the Kansas City Chiefs following the 2008 season.


Former NFL executive Ray Anderson is Arizona State's athletic director and said he would consider NFL coaches in his search. The school fired Todd Graham on Sunday.


Edwards last coached at the college level when he was defensive backs coach at San Jose State from 1987-89. He was a longtime NFL assistant and also served as head coach of the New York from 2001-05.


Edwards spent 10 seasons (1977-86) in the NFL as a cornerback, the first nine with the Philadelphia Eagles. He split time with the Atlanta Falcons and Los Angeles Rams in his final season.


Edwards had a 54-74 record in eight seasons as an NFL head coach.


Recently fired Texas A&M coach Kevin Sumlin also has been mentioned as a possible candidate to replace Graham in Arizona.

 

[CNOTES]

PSU's Moorhead to be next Miss St. coach
November 28, 2017


Mississippi State will hire Penn State offensive coordinator Joe Moorhead as its next head coach, according to a person with direct knowledge of the decision.


The person spoke to The Associated Press on Tuesday on condition of anonymity because a deal was still being finalized.


Moorhead replaces Dan Mullen, who left Mississippi State after nine years to become Florida's coach. Moorhead has been with Penn State the last two seasons, calling plays for one of the best offenses in the country.


Before coming to Penn State, Moorhead was head coach at FCS Fordham University in New York. He went 38-13 at his alma mater with three playoff appearances in four years. The Rams have made only two other playoff appearances since moving up to Division I in 1989.


The 44-year-old from Pittsburgh also has been offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach at Connecticut and Akron.


Penn State coach James Franklin hired Moorhead after the 2015 season to bring his creative spread offense to State College, and it has helped the Nittany Lions take off. Penn State is 21-5 the last two seasons with Moorhead directing the offense. In 2015, the Nittany Lions were 21st in the nation and second in the Big Ten in yards per play at 6.50. This season, they are 17th nationally and second in the Big Ten at 6.55 yards per play.


At Mississippi State, Moorhead will have one of the best quarterbacks in the Southeastern Conference in Nick Fitzgerald, though he will be recovering from a serious ankle injury suffered in the season finale against Mississippi. When healthy, Fitzgerald is a dual-threat who would seem to be a perfect fit for Moorhead's offense.


The Bulldogs finished the regular season 8-4 and have much of this season's team returning in 2018.

 

[CNOTES]

UF's Mullen fires Shannon, hires pair
November 28, 2017


GAINESVILLE, Fla. (AP) Florida coach Dan Mullen's first official day on the job included numerous staff changes.


Mullen dismissed defensive coordinator Randy Shannon and five other assistants Tuesday, a person familiar with the situation told The Associated Press.


The person spoke to the AP on the condition of anonymity because the Gators have not publicly announced the personnel moves. The person said Mullen parted ways with Shannon, offensive coordinator Doug Nussmeier, defensive backs coach Corey Bell, receivers coach Kerry Dixon, tight ends coach Greg Nord and defensive assistant Robb Akey.


Shannon had two years remaining on his contract that paid him $890,000 annually.


So the Gators will end up with four head coaches on the payroll in the future: Shannon, who was the former interim coach, as well as Mullen, Jim McElwain and Will Muschamp.


Florida has one payment remaining to Muschamp: $787,500 in 2018.


Full details of Mullen's contract and McElwain's separation agreement were released Tuesday.


McElwain will get a $7.5 million buyout spread across six payments between this week and 2021. He will receive the first installment, a $3.75 million ''transition payment,'' Friday. HIs original buyout would have been a little more than $12.5 million, an amount the team and coach negotiated after he failed to produce evidence of alleged death threats in late October.


Both McElwain and Florida also agreed not to disparage each other verbally or in writing.


Mullen signed a six-year, $36.618 million contract Monday to replace McElwain. Mullen can earn up to $925,000 more in bonuses and has a $5 million pool to pay assistants, up about $500,000 from McElwain's final year.


The new coach announced Tuesday the hiring of two of his long-time assistants, Billy Gonzales and John Hevesy.


Gonzales and Hevesy each spent at least 10 years working with Mullen, including several years in Gainesville.


Gonzales just finished his fifth season on Mullen's staff at Mississippi State and was in charge of receivers. He also served as the team's co-offensive coordinator overseeing the passing game for four seasons. He also worked with Mullen at Bowling Green, Utah and Florida, and spent time at LSU.


Coming off his ninth season at Mississippi State, Hevesy spent the past three seasons as the Bulldogs' co-offensive coordinator. He also oversaw the offensive line since 2009.


Offensive line coach Brad Davis, defensive line coach Chris Rumph, running backs coach Ja'Juan Seider and linebackers coach Tim Skipper remain on Florida's staff, at least for now. They are expected to be on the road recruiting this week.

 

[CNOTES]

Big 12 title game back after 6-year hiatus
November 28, 2017


FORT WORTH, Texas (AP) When Texas beat Nebraska in the championship game at the end of the Big 12's first-ever season in 1996, the only other conference playing such a title game was the SEC.


The Cornhuskers were also in the last Big 12 title game, in their final season as a league member when they lost to Oklahoma in 2010.


Now after a six-season hiatus, and a change in NCAA rules to allow it, the revived Big 12 championship game returns Saturday when the No. 2 Sooners (11-1, 8-1 Big 12, No. 3 CFP) play No. 10 TCU (9-2, 7-2, No. 11 CFP) at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.


In the first three years of the four-team College Football Playoff, the only Big 12 team to make it was Oklahoma in 2015. Of the 12 teams to make the playoff since the CFP's inception in 2014, 10 got there after winning their respective conference championship games.


The ACC started its conference championship game in 2005. The Big Ten and Pac-12 added title games in 2011, the first year the Big 12 was the only Power Five Conference without one.


It was after Big 12 co-champions TCU and Baylor were both 11-1 and left out of the first four-team playoff in 2014 that league leaders considered resuming the championship game. The NCAA in 2016 passed legislation co-sponsored by the Big 12 to allow conferences with less than 12 members to stage a championship game.


TCU had been No. 3 in the CFP rankings before a 55-3 win over Iowa State in its regular season finale in 2014, the same day Ohio State took advantage of a 13th game and beat Wisconsin 59-0 in the Big Ten championship game. When the final CFP rankings came out the next day, the Horned Frogs had dropped to sixth behind the Buckeyes and Baylor.


Now that so-called ''13th data point'' would almost certainly take the Big 12 out of playoff contention this season if Oklahoma doesn't beat TCU for the second time in four weeks.


Even TCU coach Gary Patterson acknowledged when asked Tuesday that ''probably the best (result) for the Big 12 is Oklahoma to win.''


But the Frogs certainly relish the opportunity for another chance against Oklahoma, which won 38-20 when they played in Norman on Nov. 11.


''I was the one that went from third to sixth, so for me to feel sorry for somebody else ... you're talking to the wrong person,'' Patterson said.


Oklahoma is making its record ninth appearance in the Big 12 title game, having gone 7-1 in its previous eight appearances from 2000-10. Texas (3-2 in its five appearances) and Nebraska (2-4) are the only other teams who have won multiple Big 12 championship games.


The last two Big 12 title games were also played in the home stadium of the NFL's Dallas Cowboys in 2009 and 2010. Texas Stadium, the previous home of the Cowboys, hosted the game in 2001.


Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City hosted the Big 12 game a record five times (2000, 2003, 2004, 2006 and 2008), and the Alamodome in San Antonio did three times. St. Louis was the championship site twice, including the inaugural 1996 game, and the game was also played twice at the home stadium of the NFL's Houston Texans.

 

[CNOTES]

USC enjoys rest before Pac-12 title game
November 28, 2017


LOS ANGELES (AP) While the Pac-12 North was being decided in Seattle, Pac-12 South champion Southern California was enjoying an overdue day off.


Tight end Tyler Petite went to the Bay Area to see his girlfriend. Tight end Daniel Imatorbhebhe watched rivalry games play out across the country.


Quarterback Sam Darnold was flipping back and forth between Notre Dame-Stanford and the Apple Cup, where Washington's 41-14 win over Washington State gave the 14th-ranked Cardinal the division title and a spot in the Pac-12 championship game Friday night against the rested 11th-ranked Trojans.


USC will be the first team from a Power 5 conference to play in a conference championship game after a bye week since Oklahoma and Auburn in 2004.


It wasn't intentional. The Pac-12 has to accommodate USC and Stanford's rivalry games against the Fighting Irish and a nine-game conference schedule. But it could have created a problem if the Cougars had won the Pac-12 North since Washington State would have lost a day of preparation traveling to Santa Clara, California, and exacerbated the disparity.


The Cardinal only have a short bus ride to Levi's Stadium to worry about, and Stanford head coach David Shaw has no issues facing a recharged USC team.


''If anybody in the country deserved it, it's them. I mean, going 12 straight weeks without a bye, especially in this conference playing nine conference games and Notre Dame, it's brutal,'' Shaw said.


USC spent much of the season hindered by injuries, but its break came when the team is largely healthy.


Outside linebacker Porter Gustin (toe) will not play in the Pac-12 title game, USC head coach Clay Helton said, but the rest of the roster is good to go. Gustin missed eight of USC's last 10 games after he was injured against Stanford on Sept. 9 and has a ''better opportunity'' to play in a bowl game, Helton said.


For Petite, the bye week gave him more time to recover from a shoulder injury. Imatorbhebhe was happy to set aside the mental grind of the game for a few days.


''Just got to rest,'' Imatorbhebhe said. ''It was awesome. My mind needed it as well as my body, so it was cool.''


But the time in front of the television reminded USC how difficult it will be to beat Stanford twice in the same season. Three turnovers in the fourth quarter allowed Stanford to pull away from the Fighting Irish for a 38-20 win. Darnold stopped watching early in the second half to get dinner and was initially surprised by the late separation.


''My dad texted me the final score and I was just like, `Whoa.' So I went back and watched the highlights and they were just really physical. We're preparing really hard for that type of game and it's going to be really fun,'' Darnold said.


Darnold's two interceptions were the only significant mistakes on offense in a 42-24 win over Stanford as USC ran for 307 yards and threw for 316 yards.


Petite believes the passing offense is better than it was in the second week of the season because of the development of receivers Tyler Vaughns and Michael Pittman Jr. Neither the redshirt freshman Vaughns nor the sophomore Pittman caught a pass against Stanford, but are now reliable options.


''With the receivers kind of coming into their own, Tyler really stepping up and Pitt really stepping into his role, too, and just gaining Sam's trust, I think that was the biggest thing,'' Petite said.


They should free up Deontay Burnett, who had nine receptions for 121 yards and two touchdowns in the first meeting at the Coliseum. However, Stanford is allowing an average of 195.25 yards passing over its last eight games, intercepting 12 passes while giving up seven touchdown passes.


Stanford had won three straight in the series, including a 41-22 triumph in the 2015 Pac-12 title game, prior to this season. Bye or no bye, USC has not forgotten those losses.


''We would have been excited to play Wazzu or Washington, too, but we do have an extensive history against these guys. They beat us three times in a row and that score's not really settled, so I know we are really fired up to go and compete against them again,'' Imatorbhebhe said.

 

[CNOTES]

Tech Trends - Week 14
November 29, 2017


FRIDAY, DECEBMBER 1
Matchup Skinny Edge


STANFORD vs. SOUTHERN CAL (Pac 12 title Friday, December 1 at Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA)...SC a bit streaky vs. line TY and only 4-8 vs. spread in 2017. Trojans just 5-11 last 16 vs. line away from Coliseum (but 5-4 last nine). Tree had won 7 of last 9 SU and covered 10 of last 14 in series prior to loss on September 9. Cardinal 10-3-1 as dog for David Shaw since 2011.
Stanford, based on team and extended series trends.




SATURDAY, DECEMBER 2


Matchup Skinny Edge


IDAHO at GEORGIA STATE...Note Vandals have covered 8 straight and 14 of last 15 as Belt visitor!
Idaho, based on team trends.

UL-LAFAYETTE at APPALACHIAN STATE...ULL 6-2 vs. spread last eight on Sun Belt road, though hasn’t been closer than 19 points the last three years in series.
Slight to ULL, based on team trends.


GEORGIA SOUTHERN at COASTAL CAROLINA...Since Summers dismissal, GSU is 3-1-1 vs. line after posting 4-14 mark prior since beginning of last season. Coastal no covers last four at home in debut Belt year.
Georgia Southern, based on recent trends.


TROY at ARKANSAS STATE...Troy not great vs. line this season but has been pretty good on road (3-1-1 vs. line), now 9-3-1 last 13 vs. line away from home. Though Trojans have lost four in a row SU vs. Ark State dating back to 2011. Neal Brown 7-2-1 as dog since 2015 season.
Slight to Troy, based on team trends.


SOUTH ALABAMA at NEW MEXICO STATE...Jags 5-12 vs. points last 17 as road dog and that does not count the 52-0 loss at Ga Southern on Nov. 18! USA just 10-21 last 31 on board. Still a chance NMSU gets bowl-eligible and Ags on 10-6-1 spread uptick since mid 2016. Ags also 4-2 last six as chalk.
NMSU, based on team trends.


UMASS at FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL....UMass has covered four of last five in 2017 including four straight on road. FIU 0-3 as chalk this season, no covers last four in role since 2016.
UMass, based on team trends.

ULM at FLORIDA STATE...Noles just 2-9 vs. spread this season (though covers last two).
Slight to ULM, based on recent trends.


NORTH TEXAS at FLORIDA ATLANTIC (Conference USA title game)...Rematch of FAUs’s 69-31 win back on October 21. That was one of six covers last eight this season for the Owls. UNT also hot down stretch with four covers in a row to end the season and is 8-3 as dog away from home under Littrell since last season.
FAU, based on team trends.


MEMPHIS at UCF (American title game)...Rematch of 40-13 UCF win and cover back on Sept. 30. Memphis hot down stretch with five straight covers but Mike Norvell just 3-4 as dog since last season. UCF only 1-4 vs. line last five in 2017 but was 14-5 vs. spread (if counting Cincy as cover TY) prior for Scott Frost since 2016.
UCF, based on team trends.


AKRON vs. TOLEDO (MAC title game at Ford Field, Detroit)...Rematch of Oct. 21 game win big by Toledo, 48-21. Rockets won by almost identical 48-17 score last season. Toledo was hot vs. line down stretch, winning and covering six of last seven after 3-10-1 spread skid prior. Terry Bowden 4-4 as dog this season, just 7-8 in role since 2016.
Toledo, based on recent and series trends.

AUBURN vs. GEORGIA (SEC title game at Mercedes Benz Stadium, Atlanta)...Rematch of Auburn’s 40-17 win on Nov. 11. Georgia, however, had won and covered previous three in series. Bulldogs on 9-4 spread uptick since late 2016, and 7-1 vs. spread last eight away from Athens.
Georgia, based on team and extended series trends.


FRESNO STATE at BOISE STATE (Mountain West title game)...Rematch of Fresno’s 28-17 win at Bulldog Stadium last Sunday. Bulldogs were 8-2-2 vs. spread this season for Jeff Tedford, and FSU on 13-4-2 spread run since mid 2016. Boise 2-12-1 vs. spread last 15 as blue carpet chalk (though did cover last two).
Fresno State, based on team and recent trends.


MIAMI-FLA. vs. CLEMSON (ACC title game at Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte)...Miami was only 5-6 vs. line this season for Mark Richt, and just 2-2 vs. points away from Hard Rock Stadium. Clemson has covered last three this season, and is 8-1 vs. line in conference title/bowl games since 2012 (only non-cover was in LY’s ACC title game).
Clemson, based on team trends.

OHIO STATE vs. WISCONSIN (Big Ten title game at Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis)...Wiscy has lost last five SU vs. Buckeyes since win in 2010. Included was 59-0 blowout loss in this game in 2014. Though Badgers covered LY’s OT loss at Madison. Badgers on 20-7-1 spread run for Paul Chryst since late in 2015 season, if dog note Wiscy 8-1 in role since 2014 (6-1 for Chryst). Badgers 13-2 vs. points last 15 away from Madison (if counting Cotton Bowl as W LY). Urban Meyer just 5-10 vs. points last 15 on board since mid 2016.
Wisconsin, based on team trends.


TCU vs. OKLAHOMA (Big 12 title game at Jerry Jones AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX)...Rematch of OU’s 38-20 win and cover at Norman on Nov. 11. Prior to this season, the five meetings since TCU joined Big 12 were all decided by 7 or fewer points. Patterson 10-5 last 15 as dog, and Sooners only covered one of last five away from Norman this season.
Slight to TCU, based on extended series and team trends

 

[CNOTES]

Betting action very heavy as NCAAF Championship Week pointspreads hit the board
Patrick Everson


“The Badgers are undefeated. Buckeyes signal caller J.T. Barrett is banged up. Wisconsin covered the number in four straight. No wonder 67 percent of early bettors are on the Badgers and the points.”


Conference championship week has arrived in college football, which could lead to easy decisions or utter chaos for the committee deciding on the four-team College Football Playoff. All we’re concerned with is the betting angle on these games. So with that, here’s a look at the opening lines and early action on the Power Five conference finals, with insights from Dave Mason, brand manager for offshore sportsbook BetOnline.ag.


Georgia Bulldogs vs. Auburn Tigers (-2.5)


Auburn had a fantastic finish to the regular season, charting two impressive home wins, over an unbeaten Georgia squad in Week 11, then another unbeaten in Alabama in Week 13. The Tigers (10-2 SU, 6-4-2 ATS) bested ‘Bama 26-14 Saturday as a 6-point home underdog, two weeks after upending Georgia 40-17 catching 2.5 points at home.


The upset of the Tide gives Auburn a rematch against Georgia, with the winner of the SEC title game assuredly in the CFP. The Bulldogs (11-1 SU, 8-4 ATS) bounced back from the loss to the Tigers with blowout wins the last two weeks. Georgia rolled Kentucky 42-13 as a 23.5-point home chalk, then dumped host Georgia Tech 38-7 laying 11.5 points on Saturday.


“No surprise that the SEC championship is taking on more bets than any other game on the betting board,” Mason said. “As a matter of fact, there are twice as many bets on this game than the second-most-bet-game – the ACC championship. After knocking off No. 1 Alabama last week and then-No. 1 Georgia with ease a few weeks ago, 68 percent of early bettors are on Auburn minus the points.”


That helped move the line to Auburn -3.


Miami Hurricanes vs. Clemson Tigers (-7.5)


Miami had a great chance to enter the ACC final undefeated, but stubbed its toe badly in Week 13. The Hurricanes (10-1 SU, 5-6 ATS) went to Pittsburgh as a 12-point fave and barely even scored a dozen points, losing 24-14.


Clemson won five in a row SU following its shocking loss at Syracuse, and cashed in its last three games. On Saturday, the Tigers (11-1 SU, 7-4-1 ATS) coasted past South Carolina 34-10 giving 12.5 points on the road.


“With Miami losing its first game of the year, in addition to Clemson covering each of its last three games, it’s not surprising that 82 percent of early bettors are on the defending champs,” Mason said. “Tons of early action, as this is the second-most-bet game so far.”


That helped jack up this line from the opener of Clemson -7.5 to -9 by Sunday night.


Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Wisconsin Badgers (+6.5)


Wisconsin got through the regular season unscathed and now hopes to lock up a CFP bid in the Big Ten final. The Badgers (12-0 SU, 8-4 ATS) dispatched Minnesota 31-0 as a hefty 18.5-point favorite Saturday.


Ohio State is hoping to win this week and sneak into the CFP despite having two losses, including a 55-14 shellacking at Iowa, where Urban Meyer’s troops were 21-point faves on Nov. 4. The Buckeyes (10-2 SU, 5-7 ATS) outlasted archrival Michigan 31-20 on Saturday, but fell short of cashing as 12.5-point chalk.


“The Badgers are undefeated. Buckeyes signal caller J.T. Barrett is banged up. Wisconsin covered the number in four straight. OSU is 1-4 ATS in its last five,” Mason said. “No wonder 67 percent of early bettors are on the Badgers and the points.”


Based on that action, the line ticked down to Ohio State -6.


Texas Christian Horned Frogs vs. Oklahoma Sooners (-6)


After a shocking home loss to Iowa State, Oklahoma won seven in a row to reach the Big 12 title game, with the last five victories all by 18 points or more. The Sooners (11-1 SU, 7-5 ATS) went off as 23-point favorites Saturday at West Virginia and won 59-31.


Texas Christian also lost to Iowa State, though on the road, and TCU’s second loss came at Oklahoma on Nov. 11, 38-20 as a 6-point pup. The Horned Frogs (10-2 SU, 6-6 ATS) bounced back with two easy wins, including Saturday at home against Baylor, 45-22 as a heavy 24.5-point chalk.


“Considering that the Sooners have covered in four out of their last five, including the win over TCU a few weeks back, it’s not surprising that the majority of early bettors are on Oklahoma,” Mason said, noting the line moved to Sooners -6.5. “This is by far the most-lopsided-bet game so far, as the bet count is about 20/1 in favor of Oklahoma.”


Stanford Cardinal vs. Southern California Trojans (-3.5)


Even with a win this week in the Pac-12 title game, Southern Cal has virtually no chance of reaching the CFP. The Trojans (10-2 SU) have been among the worst spread-covering outfits in the nation, which they demonstrated again in their Nov. 18 regular-season finale, a 28-23 win over UCLA as a 14.5-point home favorite.


Stanford has absolutely no shot at the CFP, but did finish the regular season with style. The Cardinal, who won a tiebreaker with Washington to reach the Pac-12 final, dumped Notre Dame 38-20 getting 3 points at home Saturday night.


“After opening USC -3.5, early bettors took the points with Stanford, and the line moved very quickly to the Trojans as field-goal favorites,” Mason said. “Since the line movement, more bets are on USC, with only 30 percent of the bettors taking Stanford. This lopsided bet count is a little surprising, since the public didn’t back USC too much during the second half of the season. Perhaps the Trojans’ 42-24 thrashing of the Cardinal back in September is still on the minds of the masses. Of the Power Five conference championship games, this one is getting the fewest bets by far.”

 

[CNOTES]

College football's biggest betting mismatches: Championship week edition
Monty Andrews


TCU's Kenny Hill was one of the most accurate passers in the nation in 2017, completing two-thirds of his attempts while throwing multiple interceptions just once all season.


Pac-12 Championship


Stanford Cardinal vs. USC Trojans (-3, 57.5)


Cardinal's ball-hawking prowess vs. Trojans' turnover troubles


Things looked bleak early in the season for Stanford, but wins in eight of their final nine games have the Cardinal facing the USC Trojans for Pac-12 supremacy this Friday night. Stanford running back Bryce Love might be on the outside looking in for the Heisman Trophy, but it was still a sensational season for the 5-10 dynamo, who racked up nearly 1,900 yards on the ground. But the focus here isn't on Love: rather, it's on the significant advantage Stanford has in the turnover department.


Stanford has one of the most dangerous secondaries in the nation, finishing the regular season tied for 10th among FBS teams in interceptions (16). Combine that with eight fumble recoveries in 12 games, and the Cardinal finished tied for 11th in total turnovers gained with 24. Stanford won the turnover battle by a 3-0 margin in last weekend's 38-20 victory over the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, and forced two turnovers in their earlier meeting with the Trojans, a 42-24 setback in their second game of the season.


USC dominated that initial matchup despite losing the turnover battle, but will need to be better in that department if it hopes for a similar result this Friday. The Trojans finished outside the top 100 nationally in total turnovers allowed with 22 - 10 fumbles lost and 12 interceptions. USC turned the ball over a combined five times in its two regular-season losses to Washington and Notre Dame - and if it can't do a better job against the Cardinal, it could have one more loss on its 2017 ledger.


Big 12 Championship


Oklahoma Sooners vs. TCU Horned Frogs (+7, 62.5)


Sooners' so-so pass defense vs. cool Kenny Hill


TCU will have revenge on its mind Saturday afternoon as the Horned Frogs square off against the Oklahoma Sooners for the Big 12 Championship. The Sooners racked up 38 first-half points en route to a 38-20 triumph over the Horned Frogs back on Nov. 11, part of a seven-game winning streak that has Oklahoma in the mix for the national title. But to get there, the Sooners will need to be better in the pass defense department - and they should get a stiff test this weekend from TCU quarterback Kenny Hill.


Oklahoma doesn't have many weaknesses, but its QB pressure and overall secondary performance represent areas that could use some improvement. The Sooners finished in the lower half among FBS teams in sacks per game at 1.92, and intercepted just seven passes all season; only 21 teams had fewer INTs. Oklahoma didn't let those deficiencies prevent them from emerging as the team to beat in the Big 12, but it could be a different story this weekend.


Only five teams threw fewer interceptions than the Horned Frogs this season, who had just five INTs in 12 games. Hill was one of the most accurate passers in the nation in 2017, completing two-thirds of his attempts while throwing multiple interceptions just once all season. Oklahoma limited him to 13-of-28 passing in one of his rare off games, but he still racked up 270 yards and a touchdown in that encounter - and if he's given time to operate this weekend, TCU will make a game of it.


SEC Championship


Georgia Bulldogs vs. Auburn Tigers (-2.5, 49)


Georgia's red-zone rampage vs. Auburn's downfield defensive problems


One of the weekend's marquee matchups pits SEC East champion Georgia against SEC West champ Auburn. The Tigers injected themselves into the national title picture with last weekend's 24-16 triumph over the formerly top-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide, and will lock up a spot in the College Football Playoff semifinal with a victory over the Bulldogs. But it won't be an easy encounter this weekend, with Georgia boasting the top red-zone scoring offense in the nation.


The Bulldogs are known for boasting one of the country's top defenses - ranking fifth among FBS in scoring defense (13.8 points per game), but they were as tenacious as any team in Division I when they reached the opponent's 20-yard line, scoring 33 touchdowns and adding 11 field goals in 45 total trips - good for an absurd 97.8-percent success rate. Twenty-three of those TDs came courtesy the run - no surprise, considering that RBs Nick Chubb and Sony Michel combined for 26 rushing scores this season.


Auburn didn't allow many red-zone chances this season - teams reached the Tigers' 20-yard line just 26 times all season. But the Tigers were below-average when it came to allowing points on those red-zone opportunities, permitting opponents to score 84.6 percent of the time. Like Georgia, Auburn is one of the top defensive teams in Division I - but if the Bulldogs get inside the Tigers' 20, it could spell major problems for them in what is expected to be a tightly-contested affair.


ACC Championship


Clemson Tigers vs. Miami Hurricanes (+9.5, 47.5)


Clemson's third-down dominance vs. Miami's drive-extension woes


Clemson is in the enviable position of holding down the nation's No. 1 seed heading into the final game before the College Football Playoff participants are chosen. That makes the goal for this weekend simple: Win the ACC championship game against the Coastal Division-champion Miami Hurricanes, and you're in. And to that end, Clemson will look to take advantage of a sizeable edge when it comes to the Hurricanes facing third down situations.


Clemson forced more than its share of punts during the regular season, ranking sixth in the country in third-down conversion rate against at 28.6 percent. Prior to South Carolina's 6-of-15 performance on third down last week, the Tigers held its previous four opponents - Georgia Tech, N.C. State, Florida State and the Citadel - to a combined 13-for-58 on third-down chances. It's no wonder that the Tigers racked up 27 punt returns on the season, ranking in the top 10 nationally.


Miami overcame a difficult start to the season - at least from a weather perspective - to reel off 10 consecutive victories before dropping a 24-14 stunner to host Pittsburgh last weekend. And you could make the case that the Hurricanes' third-down struggles finally caught up with them; they went just 4-of-15 in that situation against the Panthers, and rank 121st out of 129 FBS teams in overall third-down conversion rate (30.7 percent). More struggles this weekend could mean disaster for Miami.

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF
Long Sheet


Friday, December 1


If this report updates, I'll edit this reply to show it.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


STANFORD (9 - 3) vs. USC (10 - 2) - 12/1/2017, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
STANFORD is 66-44 ATS (+17.6 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
STANFORD is 58-37 ATS (+17.3 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.
USC is 33-52 ATS (-24.2 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
STANFORD is 3-1 against the spread versus USC over the last 3 seasons
STANFORD is 3-1 straight up against USC over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Saturday, December 2


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

IDAHO (3 - 8) at GEORGIA ST (6 - 4) - 12/2/2017, 2:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
IDAHO is 1-0 against the spread versus GEORGIA ST over the last 3 seasons
IDAHO is 1-0 straight up against GEORGIA ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LA LAFAYETTE (5 - 6) at APPALACHIAN ST (7 - 4) - 12/2/2017, 2:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA LAFAYETTE is 39-23 ATS (+13.7 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
APPALACHIAN ST is 1-1 against the spread versus LA LAFAYETTE over the last 3 seasons
APPALACHIAN ST is 2-0 straight up against LA LAFAYETTE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GA SOUTHERN (2 - 9) at COASTAL CAROLINA (2 - 9) - 12/2/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TROY (9 - 2) at ARKANSAS ST (7 - 3) - 12/2/2017, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARKANSAS ST is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
ARKANSAS ST is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
ARKANSAS ST is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
TROY is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARKANSAS ST is 1-0 against the spread versus TROY over the last 3 seasons
ARKANSAS ST is 1-0 straight up against TROY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

S ALABAMA (4 - 7) at NEW MEXICO ST (5 - 6) - 12/2/2017, 4:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
S ALABAMA is 16-30 ATS (-17.0 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
S ALABAMA is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
S ALABAMA is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
S ALABAMA is 6-20 ATS (-16.0 Units) off a loss against a conference rival since 1992.
S ALABAMA is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
NEW MEXICO ST is 18-33 ATS (-18.3 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
NEW MEXICO ST is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in a home game where the total is between 49.5 and 56 since 1992.
NEW MEXICO ST is 91-122 ATS (-43.2 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
NEW MEXICO ST is 43-71 ATS (-35.1 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW MEXICO ST is 1-0 against the spread versus S ALABAMA over the last 3 seasons
S ALABAMA is 1-0 straight up against NEW MEXICO ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NORTH TEXAS (9 - 3) at FLA ATLANTIC (9 - 3) - 12/2/2017, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FLA ATLANTIC is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when playing on a Saturday this season.
FLA ATLANTIC is 24-42 ATS (-22.2 Units) in home games since 1992.
FLA ATLANTIC is 24-42 ATS (-22.2 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
FLA ATLANTIC is 17-32 ATS (-18.2 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1992.
FLA ATLANTIC is 12-26 ATS (-16.6 Units) in home games after playing a conference game since 1992.
FLA ATLANTIC is 24-41 ATS (-21.1 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
FLA ATLANTIC is 1-0 against the spread versus NORTH TEXAS over the last 3 seasons
FLA ATLANTIC is 1-0 straight up against NORTH TEXAS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MEMPHIS (10 - 1) at UCF (11 - 0) - 12/2/2017, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MEMPHIS is 76-104 ATS (-38.4 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
MEMPHIS is 20-35 ATS (-18.5 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
UCF is 1-0 against the spread versus MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
UCF is 1-0 straight up against MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

AKRON (7 - 5) vs. TOLEDO (10 - 2) - 12/2/2017, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TOLEDO is 83-56 ATS (+21.4 Units) as a favorite since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
TOLEDO is 2-0 against the spread versus AKRON over the last 3 seasons
TOLEDO is 2-0 straight up against AKRON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GEORGIA (11 - 1) vs. AUBURN (10 - 2) - 12/2/2017, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GEORGIA is 65-42 ATS (+18.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
GEORGIA is 2-1 against the spread versus AUBURN over the last 3 seasons
GEORGIA is 2-1 straight up against AUBURN over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FRESNO ST (9 - 3) at BOISE ST (9 - 3) - 12/2/2017, 7:45 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOISE ST is 139-101 ATS (+27.9 Units) in all games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 139-101 ATS (+27.9 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 97-71 ATS (+18.9 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
BOISE ST is 85-60 ATS (+19.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
BOISE ST is 88-58 ATS (+24.2 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.
FRESNO ST is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all games this season.
FRESNO ST is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
FRESNO ST is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
FRESNO ST is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
FRESNO ST is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing on a Saturday this season.
FRESNO ST is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
FRESNO ST is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
BOISE ST is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
BOISE ST is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
BOISE ST is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
FRESNO ST is 1-0 against the spread versus BOISE ST over the last 3 seasons
FRESNO ST is 1-0 straight up against BOISE ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MIAMI (10 - 1) vs. CLEMSON (11 - 1) - 12/2/2017, 7:45 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEMSON is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEMSON is 1-0 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
CLEMSON is 1-0 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OHIO ST (10 - 2) vs. WISCONSIN (12 - 0) - 12/2/2017, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WISCONSIN is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
WISCONSIN is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
OHIO ST is 182-140 ATS (+28.0 Units) in all games since 1992.
OHIO ST is 182-140 ATS (+28.0 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
OHIO ST is 119-90 ATS (+20.0 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
OHIO ST is 165-126 ATS (+26.4 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
OHIO ST is 68-43 ATS (+20.7 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
WISCONSIN is 1-0 against the spread versus OHIO ST over the last 3 seasons
OHIO ST is 1-0 straight up against WISCONSIN over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MASSACHUSETTS (4 - 7) at FLA INTERNATIONAL (7 - 4) - 12/2/2017, 12:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MASSACHUSETTS is 2-0 against the spread versus FLA INTERNATIONAL over the last 3 seasons
MASSACHUSETTS is 2-0 straight up against FLA INTERNATIONAL over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LA MONROE (4 - 7) at FLORIDA ST (5 - 6) - 12/2/2017, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FLORIDA ST is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all games this season.
FLORIDA ST is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TCU (10 - 2) vs. OKLAHOMA (11 - 1) - 12/2/2017, 12:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA is 2-1 against the spread versus TCU over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA is 3-0 straight up against TCU over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF

Conference Championship Week

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Friday, December 1


STANFORD @ SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
Stanford is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Stanford's last 8 games
Southern California is 19-2 SU in its last 21 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Southern California's last 6 games




Saturday, December 2


MASSACHUSETTS @ FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
Massachusetts is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Massachusetts is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Florida International is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Florida International's last 5 games


LOUISIANA-MONROE @ FLORIDA STATE
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Louisiana-Monroe's last 11 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 16 of Louisiana-Monroe's last 20 games
Florida State is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games at home
Florida State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home


NORTH TEXAS @ FLORIDA ATLANTIC
North Texas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
North Texas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Florida Atlantic is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Florida Atlantic is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games


AKRON @ TOLEDO
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Akron's last 10 games
Akron is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games
Toledo is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Toledo is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games


MEMPHIS @ CENTRAL FLORIDA
Memphis is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Memphis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Central Florida is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Memphis
Central Florida is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Memphis


TEXAS CHRISTIAN @ OKLAHOMA
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Texas Christian's last 8 games
Texas Christian is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games
Oklahoma is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Oklahoma is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Texas Christian


GEORGIA SOUTHERN @ COASTAL CAROLINA
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Georgia Southern's last 5 games on the road
Georgia Southern is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Coastal Carolina's last 6 games
Coastal Carolina is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games


IDAHO @ GEORGIA STATE
Idaho is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Idaho's last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Georgia State's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Georgia State's last 5 games at home


LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE @ APPALACHIAN STATE
Louisiana-Lafayette is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
Louisiana-Lafayette is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Appalachian State is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home
Appalachian State is 16-5 SU in its last 21 games


GEORGIA @ AUBURN
Georgia is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games
Georgia is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games when playing Auburn
Auburn is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Auburn's last 9 games


SOUTH ALABAMA @ NEW MEXICO STATE
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of South Alabama's last 8 games
South Alabama is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Mexico State's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Mexico State's last 7 games


TROY @ ARKANSAS STATE
Troy is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Troy is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Arkansas State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Arkansas State is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Troy


FRESNO STATE @ BOISE STATE
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Fresno State's last 5 games
Fresno State is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
Boise State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Fresno State
Boise State is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games at home


MIAMI-FL @ CLEMSON
Miami-FL is 15-1 SU in its last 16 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Miami-FL's last 9 games
Clemson is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Clemson is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Miami-FL


WISCONSIN @ OHIO STATE
Wisconsin is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Wisconsin is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Ohio State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Wisconsin
Ohio State is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games

 

[CNOTES]

College football conference championship game rematches: What's new and what's not
Ashton Grewal


Georgia gets a second crack at Auburn in the SEC Championship Game on Saturday afternoon three weeks to the day after it was thumped 40-17 at Jordan-Hare Stadium. Will the Dawgs bark back?


Conference championship week in college football this year is, to borrow a Yogi Berra line, like déjà vu all over again. Seven of the conference championship games this weekend are rematches of conference games from earlier this season.


Ashton Grewal examines the replays in the power conference title games to try and find out what’s changed for the teams involved since the last meeting, what’s the same, and what bettors should expect in the rematch.


SEC championship game


Teams: Auburn Tigers vs. Georgia Bulldogs
Odds: Auburn -2.5, over/under 49
Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium – Atlanta, Georgia (Neutral field)


Last game when and where: Week 11 at Auburn
Last game odds: Georgia -2.5, over/under 48
Last game result: Auburn 40 – Georgia 17


Story of the first game: Auburn held Georgia to a season-low 46 rushing yards on 32 carries while it gained 246 yards on the ground itself against one of the best run defenses in the country.


What’s different this time: A neutral field should help Georgia, as should the health of Auburn star running back Kerryon Johnson who hurt his shoulder in the Iron Bowl last weekend. Westgate SuperBook oddsmaker Ed Salmon says Johnson is worth about a half point to the spread. Vegas sees Auburn as the better team this time around.


What’s the same: The playoff stakes for the Tigers. Auburn had to win out in the regular season to have any shot at securing a place in the college football playoff and it will have to beat Georgia a second time to make it inside the top four rankings.


Georgia’s ATS dominance. The Bulldogs went right back to creaming the opposition after their setback against Auburn. UGA went 2-0 ATS after the game against Auburn and finished the season with an 8-4 mark against the spread.


Big 12 Championship Game


Teams: Texas Christian Horned Frogs vs. Oklahoma Sooners
Odds: Oklahoma -7, over/under: 63.5
Location: AT&T Stadium – Arlington, Texas (Neutral field)


Last game when and where: Week 11 at Oklahoma
Last game odds: Oklahoma -6, 63.5
Last game result: Oklahoma 38 – TCU 20


Story of first game: The Sooners found the end zone in five of their first seven possessions and took a 38-14 lead into halftime. TCU played better in the second half but never got back in the game. Oklahoma ran for 200 yards on the ground against the third best rush defense in the country.


What’s different this time: The game will be played on a neutral field but it’s safe to assume Oklahoma’s fan base will travel better than TCU’s.


OU’s stock has gone up in the betting market while TCU’s has dropped since their first matchup. The books opened with the Sooners giving seven points in the Week 11 showdown and bettors backed the Frogs which brought the spread down to OU -6 by kickoff. This time, oddsmakers installed OU as 6.5-point chalk on a neutral field and the market is bringing the number up to a touchdown spread.


What’s the same: The Sooners’ dominance against Big 12 opposition. Lincoln Riley’s team averaged a 14.3- point differential per game in conference play. TCU’s offense is decent but not in the same league as Oklahoma.


Pac-12 Championship Game


Teams: Southern California Trojans vs. Stanford Cardinal
Odds: USC -4, over/under: 58.5
Location: Levi’s Stadium – Santa Clara, California (Neutral field)


Last game when and where: Week 2 at USC
Last game odds: USC -3.5, 54.5
Last game result: USC 42 – Stanford 24


Story of the first game: The Trojans converted 10 of their 12 third downs and racked up 307 rushing yards, 28 first downs and 623 total offensive yards. USC’s nine possessions ended in touchdowns (six), interceptions (two) or victory formation kneels (one).


What’s different this time: Stanford made a switch at QB when it elected to bench Keller Chryst for redshirt freshman K.J. Costello in Week 10. The Cardinal’s passing game has been more accurate with Costello under center and he’s coming off a four-TD-toss performance against the Fighting Irish.


The health of Stanford running back Bryce Love is the real question mark in this rematch. He was completely healthy in Week 2 but he’s been struggling with a sore ankle for the past few weeks.


What’s the same: It was a weird year in the Pac-12 and the winner of this game probably has no shot of making the college football playoff. But USC was the preseason favorite to win the conference and Stanford was the third choice behind USC and Washington.


Trojans quarterback Sam Darnold was picked off twice in the first game against Stanford and USC's turnover problems continued throughout the season. The Trojans averaged 1.8 giveaways per game which puts them in the bottom rung of teams in the country.

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF
Dunkel


Conference Championship Week


If this report updates, I'll edit this reply to show it.


Friday, December 1

Stanford @ USC


Game 303-304
December 1, 2017 @ 8:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Stanford
97.609
USC
107.080
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
USC
by 9 1/2
60
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
USC
by 3 1/2
58
Dunkel Pick:
USC
(-3 1/2); Over




Saturday, December 2

Idaho @ Georgia State


Game 305-306
December 2, 2017 @ 2:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Idaho
63.523
Georgia State
70.865
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Georgia State
by 7 1/2
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Georgia State
by 5
46
Dunkel Pick:
Georgia State
(-5); Under


LA-Lafayette @ Appalachian St


Game 307-308
December 2, 2017 @ 2:30 pm


Dunkel Rating:
LA-Lafayette
68.046
Appalachian St
79.672
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Appalachian St
by 11 1/2
60
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Appalachian St
by 15
57 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA-Lafayette
(+15); Over


Georgia Southern @ Coastal Carolina


Game 309-310
December 2, 2017 @ 1:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Georgia Southern
65.641
Coastal Carolina
71.176
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Coastal Carolina
by 5 1/2
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Georgia Southern
by 3
52 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Coastal Carolina
(+3); Under


Troy @ Arkansas St


Game 311-312
December 2, 2017 @ 7:30 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Troy
83.135
Arkansas St
85.697
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arkansas St
by 2 1/2
72
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arkansas St
Pick
59 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Arkansas St
Over


South Alabama @ New Mexico St


Game 313-314
December 2, 2017 @ 4:30 pm


Dunkel Rating:
South Alabama
60.552
New Mexico St
76.153
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Mexico St
by 15 1/2
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Mexico St
by 9 1/2
53 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New Mexico St
(-9 1/2); Under


North Texas @ Florida Atlantic


Game 315-316
December 2, 2017 @ 12:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
North Texas
79.001
Florida Atlantic
92.421
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Florida Atlantic
by 13 1/2
62
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Florida Atlantic
by 10
74 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Florida Atlantic
(-10); Under


Memphis @ Central Florida


Game 317-318
December 2, 2017 @ 12:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Memphis
94.986
Central Florida
105.575
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Central Florida
by 10 1/2
83
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Central Florida
by 7
81
Dunkel Pick:
Central Florida
(-7); Over


Akron @ Toledo


Game 319-320
December 2, 2017 @ 12:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Akron
73.871
Toledo
90.486
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Toledo
by 16 1/2
62
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Toledo
by 21 1/2
58
Dunkel Pick:
Akron
(+21 1/2); Over


Georgia @ Auburn


Game 321-322
December 2, 2017 @ 4:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Georgia
110.590
Auburn
110.477
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Georgia
Even
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Auburn
by 2 1/2
48
Dunkel Pick:
Georgia
(+2 1/2); Over


Fresno State @ Boise State


Game 323-324
December 2, 2017 @ 7:45 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Fresno State
88.835
Boise State
94.409
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Boise State
by 5 1/2
60
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Boise State
by 9 1/2
50
Dunkel Pick:
Fresno State
(+9 1/2); Over


Miami-FL @ Clemson


Game 325-326
December 2, 2017 @ 8:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Miami-FL
103.351
Clemson
110.378
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Clemson
by 7
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Clemson
by 9 1/2
46
Dunkel Pick:
Miami-FL
(+9 1/2); Over


Ohio State @ Wisconsin


Game 327-328
December 2, 2017 @ 8:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Ohio State
119.978
Wisconsin
105.630
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Ohio State
by 14 1/2
40
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Ohio State
by 6
51 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Ohio State
(-6); Under


Massachusetts @ FIU


Game 329-330
December 2, 2017 @ 12:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Massachusetts
77.290
FIU
79.616
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
FIU
by 2 1/2
58
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
FIU
Pick
55 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
FIU
Over


LA-Monroe @ Florida State


Game 331-332
December 2, 2017 @ 12:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
LA-Monroe
74.509
Florida State
93.316
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Florida State
by 19
85
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Florida State
by 27
64 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA-Monroe
(+27); Over

TCU @ Oklahoma


Game 333-334
December 2, 2017 @ 12:30 pm


Dunkel Rating:
TCU
106.560
Oklahoma
111.591
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oklahoma
by 5
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oklahoma
by 7
63 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
TCU
(+7); Under

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up


Conference Championship Week


Weekend’s 13 best games
Pac-12 title game, Santa Clara, CA
USC didn’t have bye week all season, but had last week off, so they should be well-rested here. Stanford played rival Cal/Notre Dame last two weeks; they won last three games- three of their last five games were decided by 3 or less points. USC ran ball for 307 yards in 42-24 home win over Stanford Sept 9, just their 3rd win in last ten games with the Cardinal. Stanford beat USC 41-22 in Pac-12 title game two years ago, which was Trojans’ only appearance in this game. Pac-12 North teams are 6-0 vs Pac-12 South teams in this event, with Stanford 3-0, winning by 3-24-19 points. Stanford is 1-2 vs spread as an underdog this year; USC is 4-7 as a favorite.


Idaho was +6 in turnovers, hammered Georgia State 37-12 at home LY, in teams’ first meeting. This is Vandals’ last I-A football game; they drop down to I-AA next year. Idaho lost its last three games, scoring total of 17 points in last two- they’re 4-1 vs spread as road underdogs this year, losing away games by 9-47-3-7 points, with win at So Alabama. Georgia State won three of its last four games, with wins by 8-4-3 points. Panthers are 1-1-1 vs spread as a favorite this year. Under is 7-1 in last eight Idaho games, 4-1 in State’s last five games.


UL-Lafayette lost three of last five games; they allowed 50-34-34 points in last three. Cajuns are 1-5 when they allow 220+ rushing yards- they’re 2-3-1 as road underdogs this year. Appalachian State won its last two games 27-6/31-10, running ball for 579 yards; ASU won all three of its games vs ULL, winning by 24-21-19 points (2-1 vs spread). Mountaineers are 2-1 as home favorites this season. Last three ULL games went over the total; under is 5-3-1 in last nine ASU games. Sun Belt home favorites are 9-15 vs spread this season.


Georgia Southern won its last two games after an 0-9 start, scoring 86 points; they covered four of last five games. Eagles are favored over a I-A team for first time this season- they’re 0-5 on road this year, with 27-6 loss the closest of the five games. Coastal Carolina is 2-9 in its first year of I-A football, beating Idaho LW after a 9-game losing streak. Chanticleers scored 17 or less points in three of their last four games- they’re 1-3 at home this year, beating UMass in opener. Four of last six Coastal games went over total; over is 7-2 in last nine GSU games.


Arkansas State won its last four games with Troy, scoring 35+ points in all four games. Troy lost its opener at Boise State, then won nine of last 10 games, losing as an 18-point favorite to South Alabama. Trojans won their last four road games, including a SU win at LSU. Arkansas State won six of its last seven games, with only loss to USA; Red Wolves are 3-0 at home, thanks to a home game with Miami being cancelled by the hurricane in September. Three of last four Troy games went over total; four of last five ASU games stayed under.


C-USA title game. Boca Raton
Florida Atlantic ran ball for 447 yards, passed for 357 more in 69-31 thrashing of North Texas Oct 21, in game that was 41-7 at half- that was FAU’s first win in last five tries vs North Texas, but tams’ previous meeting was in 2014. FAU won its last eight games, seven by 18+ points; they’re 6-2 vs spread in last eight games. North Texas is 5-0 wince the loss at FAU; they’re 4-2 vs spread as an underdog this season. Over is 5-2 in last seven FAU games, 6-3 in Mean Green’s last nine. FAU ran ball for 318+ yards in five of last seven games.


AAC title game, Orlando
Central Florida ran ball for 350 yards, gained 603 yards and pounded Memphis 40-13 Sept 30; Knights are 10-0 vs Memphis, 2-3 vs spread in last five. Memphis is 7-0 since the UCF loss, 6-1 vs spread- they scored 41+ points in last five games. UCF won wild 49-42 game with USF last week, when Bulls tied game in last 2:00, but UCF ran ensuing kickoff back for GW score. UCF covered only once in its last five games- they’re 3-0 vs spread this year when spread was single digits. Six of last eight UCF games, four of last five Memphis games went over total.


MAC title game, Ford Field, Detroit
Toledo ran ball for 303 yards, pounded Akron 48-21 at home Oct 21. Rockets covered six of last seven games overall- they won six of last eight games with Zips, beating them 48-17 LY. Toledo is 7-3 vs spread as a favorite this season. Akron won three of last four games since the Toledo loss; Zips are 3-3 vs spread as a double digit underdog this season. Akron was held to 17 or less points in four of its five losses. Under is 9-2 in Akron games this season, 3-1 in last four Toledo games. This is first MAC title game since ’05 for Zips, ’04 for Toledo.


SEC title game, Atlanta
Auburn beat Georgia 40-17 Nov 11, outgaining Dawgs 488-230, running ball for 237 yards; Tigers are only 3-9 in last 12 games vs Georgia. Auburn won its last five games overall- they won Iron Bowl last week, have to bounce back here with another strong effort. Georgia’s 20-19 win at Notre Dame in September is only game they played all year that was decided by less than 14 points- their loss to Auburn is their only loss this season. Dawgs lost SEC title game in 2011-12; they last won it in 2005. Auburn won its last appearance here, over Missouri in 2013.


Mountain West title game, Boise
Fresno State (+6.5) upset Boise 28-17 at home last Saturday; Bulldogs won eight of last nine games after losing at Alabama/Washington in September. Fresno won its last four games overall, allowing 14.5 ppg- they’re 5-0 vs spread as an underdog. Boise State had won seven in a row before last week; Broncos are 4-1 vs spread this year in games with single-digit spread. Boise is in Mountain West title game for first time in three years; Fresno won it in 2013, lost it the next year. Under is 7-0-1 in last eight Fresno games, over is 3-2 in last five Boise games.


ACC title game, Charlotte
Clemson beat Miami 58-0 in teams’ last meeting two years ago; Tigers won ACC title game last two years, 45-37/42-35. Hurricanes are in this game for first time- ‘canes lost at Pitt LW, but still have shot at national playoff. Miami is 4-1 vs spread in games where spread was single digits. Clemson won its last five games since their loss at Syracuse, when QB Bryant got hurt- they covered last three games, Tigers are 3-0 vs spread in games with single-digit spread. Eight of last nine Miami games stayed under total; under is 6-2-1 in last nine Clemson games.


Big 14 title game, Indianapolis
Unbeaten Wisconsin gets into playoff with upset win here; Badgers held 11 of 12 opponents to 17 or less points- they’re underdog for first time this year. Wisconsin is in Big 14 title game for 5th time in seven years- they lost 59-0 to Ohio State three years, lost 38-31 to Penn State LY. Ohio State won last three games, outscoring foes 131-37; they beat rival Michigan 31-20 LW. Buckeyes haven’t been in Big 14 title game the last two years. Eight of last nine Ohio State games went over total; over is 7-5 in Wisconsin games.


Big 12 title game, Dallas
Oklahoma (-6) beat TCU 38-20 at home three weeks ago- game was 38-14 at the half. Sooners outgained TCU 533-424. Oklahoma won its last seven games since a 38-31 home loss to Iowa State Oct 7- they covered four of last five games. TCU is 3-2 in its last five games after a 7-0 start, losing to Iowa St/Sooners; Horned Frogs got senior QB Hill back from injury LW- he missed the Texas Tech game two weeks ago. Over is 6-4 in Sooners’ last ten games; seven of last eight TCU games stayed under. This is first Big X title game since 2010; Sooners won five of last seven Big X championship games.

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF

Friday, December 1

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pac-12 Championship betting preview and odds: Stanford vs. USC
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Stanford Cardinal vs. Southern California Trojans (-4, 58.5)


Stanford will try to defeat USC in the Pac-12 championship game for the second time in three seasons when the No. 15 Cardinal meet the No. 9 Trojans at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif., on Friday night. Stanford has won eight of its past nine following a 38-20 victory against No. 17 Notre Dame on Saturday, and USC has won four straight for the second time this season.


These teams met Sept. 9 in Los Angeles and the Trojans played one of their best games of the season, piling up 623 total yards in a 42-24 victory inside the Coliseum. USC quarterback Sam Darnold completed 21-of-26 passes for 316 yards and four touchdowns, and led the Trojans on six touchdown drives of 75 yards or longer. Stanford's go-to player continues to be running back Bryce Love, who had 160 rushing yards on 17 carries and scored a touchdown in the first meeting, one of 10 games with at least 100 yards rushing this season. USC will see a different quarterback as sophomore K.J. Costello replaced senior Keller Chryst four games ago and is coming off his best performance, throwing for 176 yards and four touchdowns with no interceptions against the Fighting Irish.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: USC opened as 3.5-point favorites and by Thursday night that number was bet up slightly to -4. The total hit betting boards at 57 and was bumped to 58.5.

WEATHER REPORT:


54 degrees at kickoff dropping to 49 by game's end - negligible winds with no chance of precipitation

INJURY REPORT:


Stanford - RB Bryce Love (Probable, Ankle), LB Joey Alfieri (Questionable, Shoulder), T Walker Little (Questionable, Undisclosed), LB Curtis Robinson (Doubtful, Undisclosed), DE Eric Cotton (Out, Foot), CB Terrence Alexander (Out Indefinitely, Forearm), CB Alijah Holder (Out For Season, Knee), LB Sean Barton (Out For Season, Knee).


USC - DT Rasheem Green (Probable, Shoulder), TE Tyler Petite (Probable, Shoulder), G Chris Brown (Probable, Shoulder), WR Velus Jones Jr. (Questionable, Ankle), T Andrew Vorhees (Questionable, Back), QB Matt Fink (Questionable, Knee), DE Porter Gustin (Out Indefinitely, Toe), RB James Toland IV (Out Indefinitely, Shoulder), LB Hunter Echols (Out Indefinitely, Hip), DL Jacob Lichtenstein (Out Indefinitely, Back), T Nathan Smith (Out Indefinitely, Knee), DL Jay Tufele (Out Indefinitely, Back), DT Marlon Tuipulotu (Out For Season, Back), S Isaiah Pola-Mao (Out For Season, Shoulder), CB Greg Johnson (Out For Season, Shoulder), CB Keyshawn Young (Out For Season, Hamstring), G Viane Talamaivao (Out For Season, Pectoral), PK Michael Brown (Out For Season, Knee), DB Johathan Lockett (Out For Season, Hip), LB Tayler Katoa (Out For Season, Knee).

ABOUT STANFORD (9-3 SU, 5-6-1 ATS, 4-8 O/U): The Trojans will have their hands full trying to block senior Harrison Phillips, who leads all FBS defensive tackles with 16.5 tackles for loss, including 6.5 sacks. The Cardinal also have a dependable secondary led by strong safety Justin Reid, the conference's co-leader in interceptions with five, including one against the Trojans earlier this season. Reid displayed his versatility against Notre Dame, totaling nine tackles (three solo), a sack and a pass breakup.

ABOUT USC (10-2 SU, 3-8-1 ATS, 7-5 O/U): The Trojans will also have a somewhat different look than the last meeting against Stanford as the leading rusher from that game, Stephen Carr, hasn't bounced back from a four-game absence in October because of a foot injury. Carr has appeared in two games since his return, but totaled only 12 rushing yards on four carries and caught three passes for 59 yards. Ronald Jones II has flourished as the No. 1 back for USC, especially in the past four games, combining for 674 rushing yards and eight touchdowns in that span.

TRENDS:


* Cardinal are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games.
* Trojans are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.
* Under is 7-0 in Cardinal last 7 games following a straight up win.
* Over is 5-1 in Trojans last 6 games overall.

CONSENSUS: The favorite USC Trojans are picking up 66 percent of the spread picks and Over is grabbing 64 percent of the totals wagers.

 

[CNOTES]

FRIDAY, DECEMBER 1
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


STAN at USC 08:00 PM


STAN +4.0


O 58.0

 

[CNOTES]

Friday's Best Bet
November 30, 2017


Pac 12 Championship (ESPN, 8:00 p.m. ET)
Stanford vs. USC


Conference Championship week begins in earnest on Friday night with the Pac-12 title up for grabs, and while everyone will be focused on these games in terms of the CFB playoff and who ends up getting in/out, bettors have to remember that these games are still huge to all the programs involved. Every college football program starts out each new year with two specific goals: Win 6+ games to be Bowl eligible, and win their conference championship. The former has already been accomplished for teams in these games, but the latter is what's at stake this weekend (along with a potential CFB playoff berth for some) and those stakes simply can't be taken lightly here.


What's even more interesting about this weekend is the fact that of the nine Conference Championship games we've got, seven of them, including this Pac-12 Title game, are rematches from games played previously this year. It's not often you get rematches in the same season of a college football season, so to have this many is quite unique.


That many rematches also puts potential “revenge” angles in play for numerous teams, and in the Pac-12's case, Stanford is looking to avenge a 42-24 drubbing by USC back in early September.


USC (-4); Total set at 58.5

A lot has changed for both teams since that meeting during Week 2 of the season, but oddsmakers appear to believe it's all worked out in the wash for the most part as the Trojans are laying the same number they were back then. With this game being on a neutral field this time as opposed to USC being at home, the identical number does translate to a -6 or -7 spread if USC was at home once again, as over the course of the entire campaign, it's not hard to argue that the Trojans were in fact the better team and deserving of laying this number.


However, teams from the Pac-12 South like USC is are winless in the Pac-12 Championship game since it's inception in 2011. It's been six straight victories by teams from the North, including in 2015 when this same Stanford program (then ranked #7) beat up on the USC Trojans (then ranked 24th) by a final score of 41-22. Stanford RB Christian McCaffrey was the game's MVP, and with the Stanford's new RB superstar Bryce Love being in the Heisman conversation all year, they'd love to see a similar outcome on Friday night. But this is not a side I want any part of going either way as there are both pros and cons working against both teams.


For USC, they've got history working against them with the drought Pac-12 South teams are on in this series, although this is also the first time the Pac-12 South representative has actually been ranked higher than their opponent from the North. The revenge angle isn't in the Trojans favor either, and the fact that it's been nearly a month since USC played quality competition – which didn't end well at all with a 49-14 loss @ Notre Dame – has me hesitant to lay the chalk. The Trojans do have extra rest though with their lone bye week of the year coming last week, which is always a plus.


For Stanford, they've got history on their side regarding the Pac-12 North's success in this game, the revenge angle in their favor, and a dominant RB that can break open a game in a hurry. But Bryce Love has been dealing with a high ankle sprain injury for the latter half of the year and his explosiveness is all but gone except for a play or two. A play or two might be all that Stanford needs to claim this contest, but with Love's nagging injury holding him to a high of 166 rushing yards the past six games – compared to a low of 160 (vs USC) and a high of 301 in his first five games – Stanford might have a tough time on their hands scoring points to keep pace with a USC attack that is clearly the strength of their squad.


Therefore, I'm looking at this total of 58.5 and viewing it as a touch too high given the stakes for this game. Yes, I know these two teams combined for 66 points in the first meeting, but the war of attrition that is the CFB season has claimed numerous significant casualties on both sides limiting each attack in different ways. Given that it's also a championship game with much higher stakes then the first meeting, I do expect the defenses to show up more than they did in the first meeting. And similar to division rematches in NFL games – the only really comparable scenario in terms of football rematches in the same season – I'm never opposed to flip-flopping the results both ATS and O/U for that return matchup, but like I said, the side doesn't really interest me for this specific game.


Furthermore, Stanford has been a great 'under' bet in Pac-12 play all year with a 1-6 O/U record in their lst seven conference games, and when coming off an outright win this year, the Cardinal are 1-7 O/U as well. Throw in the fact that USC finally had a week off to heal some bumps and bruises after playing for 11 straight weeks and the energy and effectiveness of their defense will get a nice boost. The Trojans are also 0-4 O/U when coming off a bye week the past few years.


So with Stanford wanting to likely play a ball control style of offense with their ground game leading the way, and Love's ability to break those 60+ yard runs with regularity in doubt because of the ankle injury, I fully expect this clock to be bleeding away for the entirety, and neither side to have too many possessions overall. And contrary to many believe about USC and all the talk about QB Sam Darnold and his NFL stock, the Trojans are actually a team that prefer to use the run heavily when they can because then things open up much more for Darnold in the aerial attack.


This game will likely finish with the winner somewhere in the 20's for points on the scoreboard, and as long as we don't get OT and have to sweat out those extra possessions, cashing an 'under' ticket appears to be the best way to bet this contest.


Best Bet: Under 58.5 points

 

[CNOTES]

Pac-12 Championship Preview
November 30, 2017


Southern California (10-2 straight up, 3-8-1 against the spread) trounced Stanford by a 42-24 count as a 3.5-point home favorite to snap a three-year losing streak to the Cardinal. However, that was back on Sept. 9 in Week 2 of the 2017 campaign.


The rematch will be Friday night at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara on ESPN at 8:00 p.m. Eastern. Santa Clara is in the San Francisco Bay Area, so the Trojans will have to travel all the way up to the California coast. Meanwhile, David Shaw’s team will simply have a short drive to the home of the 49ers. To be clear, though, we only point that out for the travel factor. Bettors shouldn’t expect Stanford to have an advantage in terms of crowd numbers and support.


As of Thursday afternoon, most books had USC installed as a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 58.5 for ‘over/under’ wagers. The Cardinal was +165 on the money line (risk $100 to win $165). For first-half wagers, the Trojans were favored by three points (with a reduced -105 price tag) with a total of 30 (‘under’ -115).


Stanford (9-3 SU, 5-6-1 ATS) has won three consecutive games and eight of its last nine, including last week’s 38-20 win over Notre Dame as a three-point home underdog. The Cardinal has now won outright in all four home underdog situations since David Shaw took over for Jim Harbaugh.


The 58 combined points fell ‘under’ the 58.5 points. The ‘under’ is on a 7-1 run for the Cardinal.


K.J. Costello threw a pair of fourth-quarter touchdown passes to help turn a 20-17 deficit into a convincing victory. First, Costello found his roommate, redshirt freshman tight end Kaden Smith, for a 19-yard scoring strike to give Stanford the lead for good. Next, the RS freshman QB found another TE, Dalton Schultz, on a 12-yard TD pass. Cameron Scarlett rounded out the scoring with a three-yard TD dash with 10:10 remaining in the fourth quarter.


Costello completed 14-of-22 passes for 176 yards and four TDs without an interception. Bryce Love rushed 20 times for 125 yards, while Smith brought down three receptions for 65 yards and the aforementioned TD grab.


Love has enjoyed a sensational season as a junior, filling the shoes of the departed Christian McCaffrey without missing a beat. Love has rushed for 1,848 yards and 16 TDs with an incredible 8.6 yards-per-carry average. He produced those numbers despite missing a 15-14 win at Oregon State due to an ankle injury that had him playing at less than 100 percent for most of November.


Costello became the full-time starter in October and appears to be improving each week. The Santa Margarita Catholic HS product has completed 61.7 percent of his passes for 1,194 yards with a 9/2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. With Love doing his thing, taking care of the ball is the priority for Costello and he’s only been picked twice on 162 pass attempts. He has also rushed for 99 yards and three scores with a 4.7 YPC average.


JJ Arcega-Whiteside has a team-best 41 receptions for 633 yards and six TDs, while Trenton Irwin has 39 catches for 436 yards and two TDs. Smith has 19 receptions for 334 yards and three TDs. The former five-star recruit out of the Dallas area who spurned Alabama for Tight End U has been more of a factor in recent weeks, catching eight balls for 145 yards and two TDs in the past three games.


Stanford is ranked 25th in the nation in scoring defense, giving up 20.7 points per game. As for the offense, it ranks 36th nationally with a 32.3 PPG scoring average.


The defense is led by junior safety Justin Reid, who has a team-best 88 tackles, five interceptions, one sack, 3.5 tackles for loss, four passes broken up and two QB hurries. Junior DT Harrison Phillips has recorded 86 tackles, 6.5 sacks, 9.5 TFL’s, two forced fumbles and six QB hurries.


Unlike Stanford, USC has had two weeks to prepare for this game. However, it didn’t know its opponent until Washington thumped Washington St. by a 41-14 count this past Saturday night. The Trojans have won four in a row since getting clobbered 49-14 at Notre Dame on Oct. 21.


Clay Helton’s team is off a 28-23 non-covering win over UCLA as a 14.5-point home ‘chalk.’ USC never trailed but it never got ahead of the number, either. In fact, the Bruins had a 501-417 advantage in total offense. The 51 combined points fell ‘under’ the 70.5-point total to end a stretch of five consecutive ‘overs’ in USC games.


Sam Darnold completed 17-of-28 passes for 264 yards, but he was intercepted once and didn’t have a TD pass. Darnold did have a rushing score, however. Ronald Jones found paydirt on the ground twice, finishing with 122 rushing yards on 28 attempts. Steven Mitchell had four receptions for 56 yards, while Deontay Burnett brought down four catches for 55 yards.


For the season, Darnold has connected on 63.3 percent of his throws for 3,462 yards with a 24/12 TD-INT ratio. However, Darnold has trimmed down the turnovers since September. He has a 15/4 TD-INT ratio in his team’s past seven games.


Jones has rushed for 1,346 yards and 16 TDs with a 6.3 YPC average. He has 12 catches for 159 yards and one TD. Jones, the junior RB from McKinney, TX, has produced 122 yards or more on the ground in four consecutive games.


Burnett is Darnold’s favorite target, hauling in 73 receptions for 966 yards and nine TDs. Tyler Vaughns has 48 receptions for 664 yards and four TDs, while Mitchell has 39 grabs for 578 yards and four TDs.


USC is ranked 13th in the country in total offense, 18th in passing yards, 36th in rushing yards and 26nd in scoring with a 34.8 points-per-game average. On the flip side, the Trojans are No. 80 in the nation in total defense, No. 104 versus the pass and 60th in scoring ‘D’ (26.2 PPG).


The defense has been without one of its best players, junior DE Porter Gustin, for most of the season and he remains ‘out.’ This unit is led by junior LB Cameron Smith, who has recorded 95 tackles, 0.5 sacks, 8.5 tackles for loss, one interception, one QB hurry and one pass broken up. Sophomore CB Jack Jones has 38 tackles, four interceptions, seven PBU, one forced fumble and one blocked kick.


Stanford will be without starting senior DE Eric Cotton, who has 30 tackles, three sacks, 1.5 TFL’s and two QB hurries. Cotton is dealing with a foot injury. Junior LB Joey Alferi (shoulder) is listed as ‘questionable,’ while sophomore LB Curtis Robinson (undisclosed) is ‘doubtful.’ Alferi has 34 tackles, two sacks, 1.5 TFL’s and a pair of QB hurries. Robinson has produced 23 tackles, one interception, one PBU and 1.5 TFL’s.


USC has been a single-digit favorite four times this year, compiling a 3-1 record both SU and ATS. Meanwhile, Stanford has been an underdog three times, going 2-1 both SU and ATS.


The ‘under’ is 8-4 overall for Stanford, with its games averaging combined scores of 53.0 PPG.


The ‘over’ is 7-5 overall for the Trojans, going 5-1 in their last six outings. They’ve watched their games average combined scores of 61.0 PPG.


**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**


-- ESPN reported Thursday that Ole Miss will receive its punishment from the NCAA’s Committee of Infractions on Friday morning. The Rebels are facing 15 Level-1 violations.


-- North Texas star RB Jeffrey Wilson is ‘out’ at FAU due to an ankle injury. Wilson had rushed for 1,215 yards and 16 TDs with a 6.5 YPC average in the Mean Green’s first 11 games.


-- J.T. Barrett is ‘probable’ and expected to start vs. Wisconsin at the Big Ten Championship Game, but reports on Thursday revealed that the QB had his knee scoped this past Sunday.


-- ULM has covered the spread in five straight games as a double-digit underdog. The Warhawks are 27-point ‘dogs Saturday at Florida State.


-- I’ll be providing my opinions on Tennessee’s absolutely incompetent AD John Currie in my nuggets at the end of my SEC Championship Game preview.

 

[CNOTES]

Big 12 Championship Preview
November 30, 2017


Matchup: Oklahoma vs. Texas Christian
Date: Saturday, Dec. 2
Time/TV: 12:30 p.m. ET - ABC
Venue: AT&T Stadium
Location: Arlington, Tex.
Line, Total: Sooners -7, 63.5


The Big 12 Championship Game is back for the first time since 2010 when Oklahoma and Nebraska did battle. Moves from Colorado to the Pac-12 and Nebraska to the Big 12 meant the end of the game, with just 10 schools remaining in the conference.


The Oklahoma Sooners (11-1 straight-up, 7-5 against the spread) are back in the title game and ready for a rematch against the Texas Christian Horned Frogs (10-2 straight-up, 7-5 against the spread). These two teams just met on Nov. 11, with the Sooners taking care of business in Norman by a 38-20 score as six-point favorites. OU easily covers, and the 'under' (63.5) ended up hitting in that game. The total is the same exactly number for this game despite the change of venue to the faster track on the field turf of AT&T Stadium.


The Sooners have had a wild and crazy ride to get to Arlington. They posted a signature win back on Sept. 9 at Ohio State, taking a 31-16 road win, one of four straight victories out of the chute. They entered play on Oct. 7 coming off a bye as a 31-point favorite against Iowa State. It looked like they were going to roll right along against the Cyclones, but they suffered a 38-31 loss at home in Norman, quite stunning at the time. The loss proved to be less embarrassing that previously thought, as Iowa State was a handful in the conference for the remainder of the season. The loss also served as a wake-up call for head coach Lincoln Riley's bunch, as the Sooners rattled off seven straight wins since.


The Sooners are making their eighth trip to the Big 12 title game, and their fifth appearance in the past six installments of the game. Oklahoma won 23-20 in the most recent game in 2010, and they are 7-0 SU/ATS in their previous appearances, covering as favorite every single game.


For TCU, they weren't supposed to be a contender in the Big 12, at least this quickly. The 2017 season was one where they were expected to be in the middle of the pack, but they quickly jelled and fired off to a 7-0 SU start. A 44-31 win at Oklahoma State back on Sept. 23 fast-tracked the Horned Frogs into the national picture, and there was even talk about a potential spot in the College Football Playoff for a few weeks. A win against West Virginia on Oct. 7, and a 26-6 victory at Kansas State on Oct. 14, further bolstered their resume. But like Oklahoma, the Horned Frogs were bitten by the upset machine that is Iowa State, falling 14-7 on Oct. 28 in Ames.


TCU's biggest strength is their rush defense, ranking No. 2 nationally with just 90.0 yards per game allowed on the ground. They also ranked eighth overall in scoring defense, yielding just 15.7 points per game. In terms of total yards, the Horned Frogs are very stingy, too, giving up just 317.5 yards per outing. If they're going to be beaten, it's via the pass game, where they're a rather middling 73rd in the country giving up 227.5 yards per contest through the air. Unfortunately for TCU, that's a strenght of Oklahoma.


On offense, the Horned Frogs ranked 47th in total yards (422.1 YPG), while ranking 57th in the country with 238.0 YPG. The Horned Frogs also posted 34.5 PPG to rank 28th in the nation, and their kicking game is one of the better units in the country, too, connecting on 84.6 percent of their attempts to check in 16th in the nation.


It all starts with QB Kenny Hill, an elusive dual-threat option under center. He is more of a pass-first, run-later type quarterback. He completed 66.6 percent of his pass attempts (215-of-323) for 2,604 yards, 19 touchdowns and five interceptions while rushing 78 times for 215 yards and four scores. The senior quarterback from powerhouse Carroll Senior High in Southlake, Tex. just cannot be coaxed into many mistakes. For a guy who handles the ball as much as he does, he just doesn't put it on the ground or give it away to the opposition through the air.


The running game suffered a big loss when Darius Anderson went down with a season-ending foot injury in the Oklahoma game. He posted 768 rushing yards and eight touchdowns on 128 attempts (6.0 yards per carry), serving as the hammer in the run game, and he still leads the team in rushing even after missing several games. Anderson wasn't much of a threat to catch the ball out of the backfield, but No. 2 leading rusher Kyle Hicks certainly can be. Hicks rolled for 565 yards and four touchdowns on 4.5 yards per tote, but he also hauled in 17 passes for 208 and a score. Sewo Olonilua stepped up near the end of the season to give head coach Gary Patterson another option down the stretch, posting 100 rushing yards and a touchdown on 13 carries in the final two games.


In the pass game there were four receivers with 26 or more receptions. WR John Diarse led the team with 477 yards and 17.0 yards per reception, while WR Desmon White posted a team-high 33 catches while finding the end zone four times. Freshman WR Jaelen Raeger led the squad with six touchdown receptions, while WR KaVontae Turpin is an athletewho posted 32 grabs, 343 yards and a touchdown while also throwing a touchdown pass and running for two others. If there is a trick play, you can be sure Turpin will be in the middle of the plan.


On the Oklahoma side, QB Baker Mayfield is in the driver's seat for the Heisman Trophy. He drew attention to himself this season for his antics on the sideline, exuberance and overall solid play. He also drew attention for negative reasons in the Kansas game, after Jayhawks players refused to shake his hand. During the game, he made obscene gestures while yelling expletives at their sideline, and it cost him a start in the regular-season finale and a spot as captain on Senior Day. It's all water under the bridge now, though, and he'll likely be highly motivated heading into this one.


Mayfield completed 71.4 percent of his passes in a dream season, throwing for 4,097 yards, 37 touchdowns and five interceptions while running 79 times for 245 yards and five touchdowns. He has posted big numbers against the best of them, and he threw for 333 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions in the Nov. 11 win against TCU. He also threw for 598 yards and five touchdowns in the Nov. 4 rivalry game against Oklahoma State. He has passed for three or more touchdowns in each of his past five outings, and at least two touchdown passes in all 12 games this season.


WR Marquise Brown was on the end of many of Mayfield's passes, posting a season best 894 yards and five touchdowns with a team-best 19.4 yards per reception. TE Mark Andrews had the most receptions (51), and he was second on the team behind WR CeeDee Lamb in touchdown catches. Lamb led the team with seven scoring grabs, while Andrews made it into the end zone on six occasions. Seven receivers posted at least three touchdowns, so Mayfield likes to spread it around.


RB Rodney Anderson was good for a team-best 867 yards and 11 rushing touchdowns. He and backup RB Trey Sermon were a nice one-two punch on the ground, totaling over 1,500 total rushing yards. While Mayfield garners all of the attention, the Sooners would be nowhere without their powerful run game. The Sooners were second in the nation in passing (377.8 yards per game), but they ranked a respectable 28th in the nation in rushing yards (215.8 per game). The big-time passing game and strong rushing performances helped the Sooners rank fourth in the nation in scoring (45.2 PPG).

Betting Trends to Watch


-- The Horned Frogs have covered just two of their past 10 neutral-site games, and they're 2-5 ATS in their past seven games played in the month of December. They're also just 4-9 ATS in their past 13 games following a straight-up victory, and 1-6 ATS in their past seven outings after a straight-up win of more than 20 points. However, they're also 5-0 ATS in their past five following an ATS loss while going 4-0 ATS in their past four appearances on a field turf surface.


-- The Sooners have been red hot against the number lately, going 4-1 ATS in their past five games overall, and 4-1 ATS in their past five against conference foes. They're also 16-5 ATS in their past 21 games against teams with an overall winning record. As mentioned, they're also 7-0 SU/ATS all-time in the Big 12 title game, but just 1-7 ATS in their past eight games played on a neutral site.


-- The 'under' has been the dominant trend for the Horned Frogs lately, going 7-1 in their past eight games overall. The under is also 4-0 in TCU's past four against teams iwth an overall winning record, 5-1 in their past six following a straight-up win and 7-2 in their past nine on a field turf surface. The under is also 19-7 in their past 26 against conference foes.


-- The 'under' has been a frequent play for OU lately, too. The under is 6-1 in their past seven neutral-site games while going 14-3-1 in their past 18 games in the month of December. The under is also 6-2 in their past eight against teams with a winning overall record, although the 'over' is an impressive 24-10-1 in their past 35 on a field turf surface.


-- In this series the under has connected in six of the past eight meetings, including the matchup just a few weeks ago in Norman.


Big 12 Championship History


BIG 12 CHAMPIONSHIP (1996-2010)
Team Matchup Line Score ATS Result
2017 Oklahoma-TCU - - -
2010 Oklahoma-Nebraska Oklahoma -4.5 (51.5) Oklahoma 23-20 Underdog-Over
2009 Texas-Nebraska Texas -14 (46.5) Texas 13-12 Underdog-Under
2008 Oklahoma-Missouri Oklahoma -17 (79) Oklahoma 62-21 Favorite-Over
2007 Oklahoma-Missouri Oklahoma -3 (64.5) Oklahoma 38-17 Favorite-Under
2006 Oklahoma-Nebraska Oklahoma -3.5 (45) Oklahoma 21-7 Favorite-Under
2005 Colorado-Texas Texas -25 (60.5) Texas 70-3 Favorite-Over
2004 Colorado-Oklahoma Oklahoma -22 (55) Oklahoma 42-3 Favorite-Under
2003 Kansas State-Oklahoma Oklahoma -14 (53) Kansas State 35-7 Underdog-Under
2002 Oklahoma-Colorado Oklahoma -7.5 (53) Oklahoma 29-7 Favorite-Under
2001 Colorado-Texas Texas -9 (48.5) Colorado 39-37 Underdog-Over
2000 Kansas State-Oklahoma Oklahoma -2.5 (53.5) Oklahoma 27-24 Favorite-Under
1999 Nebraska-Texas Nebraska -7(51) Nebraska 22-6 Favorite-Under
1998 Kansas State-Texas A&M Kansas State -17 (46.5) Texas A&M 36-33 Underdog-Over
1997 Nebraska-Texas A&M Nebraska -18 (52.5) Nebraska 54-15 Favorite-Over
1996 Nebraska-Texas Nebraska -20.5 (55.5) Texas 37-27 Underdog-Over

 

[CNOTES]

Big 10 Championship Preview
November 30, 2017


Ohio State (-6) vs Wisconsin - (FOX, 8:00 PM ET)
Lucas Oil Stadium - Indianapolis, Indiana

Ohio State - A struggling Michigan offense with serious problems at QB gave OSU all they could handle last Saturday. John O’Korn got the start under center for the Wolverines as recent starter Brandon Peters was out with a head injury. Despite O’Korn completing barely over 50% of his passes in the game and missing a number of open receivers, Michigan jumped out to a 14-0 lead and the Buckeyes didn’t take their first lead until 1:34 remaining in the third quarter.


Ohio State’s final touchdown of the game came with just 1:44 remaining and gave them the 31-20 win. Neither team was overly impressive on offense as OSU had 350 yards and Michigan had 295. The 350 yards of offense for the Bucks was tied for their lowest output of the entire season as Oklahoma also held this team to same yard total. OSU was forced to punt 6 times which may not seem like a big deal, however it was only the second time all season they punted more than 4 times in a game.


One of the keys to this potent offense is obviously QB JT Barrett. He left last week’s game in the fourth quarter with a knee injury and while he says he will play in this one, it’s something we’ll have to keep a close eye on all week long. At the time in which Barrett exited with 5:00 minutes remaining in the third quarter he had only completed 3 passes in the game.


His back up, Dwayne Haskins, came in and played quite well completing 6 of 7 passes for nearly 100 yards and he also ran for 24 yards on 3 carries. If Haskins is pushed into a starting role here, he has been picked up some much needed experience this year and been impressive completing 40 of his 57 pass attempts for 4 TD’s and just 1 interception.


Wisconsin – Many continue to doubt the Badgers due to their schedule, but the fact is they just keep beating who stands in front of them and doing it rather easily. Last week they rolled over Minnesota 31-0 holding the Gophers to just 133 total yards on 48 plays (2.7 YPP). Minnesota had only 46 yards in the first half and didn’t pick up their initial first down until just 41 seconds remaining until halftime. The Badgers held Minny to just THREE pass completions the entire game!


With that effort, the Badger defense has moved to #1 nationally in total defense allowing just 237 YPG. That’s a full 20 yards better than second place Alabama. They are allowing opponents to gain only 4.0 YPP (least in the nation) and this defense has allowed only 12 offensive TD’s in their 12 games this season.


Now the Big Ten has not been an “offensive” conference this year with only 3 teams ranked in the top 50 nationally in total offense (OSU, PSU, and Wisconsin) so we’ll find out just how good this defense is on Saturday when they face, by far, the best offense they’ve seen this season (OSU ranked 4th nationally in total offense).


Last week, Wisconsin was very good offensively as well tallying 456 yards including 287 on the ground. QB Alex Hornibrook was extremely efficient with just 4 incompletions in his 19 pass attempts. It was a game many though UW might struggle with coming off a huge Michigan win but they dominated from start to finish.


The Badgers will bring their “A” game here. They blew a big lead in last year’s Big Ten Championship game eventually losing a close game to PSU and were embarrassed by OSU in 2014 in this game 59-0. Will their top effort be enough if OSU brings their best as well is the million dollar question.


The Breakdown


Common Opponents


These two had 6 common opponents this season (Michigan, Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Indiana, and Nebraska). We broke down the results of each team in those games only and here is how the numbers worked out:


Ohio State was 5-1 vs those 6 opponents (3-3 ATS). The Buckeyes scored 274 points in those games for an average of 45.6 PPG. The Buckeye defense allowed 138 points in those games for an opponent average of 23 PPG. The OSU offense gained 3,077 total yards on 473 offensive plays in those games. That’s an average of 512 YPG on 6.5 yards per play.


The Buckeye defense allowed 1,783 total yards on 385 plays vs those 6 opponents. That’s an average of 297 YPG allowed on 4.6 yards per play. Thus, OSU vs common opponents was +22 PPG, +215 YPG, and +1.9 YPP.


Wisconsin was 6-0 vs those 6 common opponents (5-1 ATS). The Badgers scored 207 points in those games for an average of 34.5 PPG. The UW defense allowed 81 points in those games for an opponent average of 13.5 PPG. The Wisconsin offense gained 2,323 total yards on 395 plays in those games. That’s an average of 387 YPG on 5.9 yards per play.


The Badger defense allowed 1.501 total yards on 377 plays vs those 6 opponents. That’s an average of 250 YPG allowed on 3.9 yards per play. Thus, Wisconsin vs common opponents was +21 PPG, +187 YPG, and +2.0 YPP.


Inside the Numbers

This will be Wisconsin’s 5th appearance in the seven-year history of the Big Ten Championship game. The Badgers are 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS in this game. They were favored in 3 of those 4 games and the only other time (besides this year) Wisconsin was an underdog was in 2012. They were +3 vs Nebraska that year and won the game outright 70-31.


Surprisingly, OSU has appeared in just 2 of the 6 Big Ten Championships thus far. They are 1-1 SU & ATS in those games with their one win coming in 2014 vs this Badger team 59-0! The Buckeyes have won 8 of the last 9 meetings with Wisconsin outright.


The underdog has covered 12 of the last 16 in this Big Ten battle. This is the first time the Badgers have been an underdog this season. They are 14-5 ATS overall in that role vs all opponents dating back to 2009. OSU is 19-10 ATS overall as a favorite of a TD or less dating back to the 2005 season.


History


BIG TEN CHAMPIONSHIP (2011-2016)
Year Matchup Line (Total) Score ATS Result
2016 Penn State-Wisconsin Wisconsin -3 (45) Penn State 38-31 Underdog-Over
2015 Iowa-Michigan State Michigan State -3.5 (52.5) Michigan State 16-13 Underdog-Under
2014 Wisconsin-Ohio State Wisconsin -4 (54) Ohio State 59-0 Underdog-Over
2013 Michigan State-Ohio State Ohio State -5.5 (53.5) Michigan State 34-24 Underdog-Over
2012 Wisconsin-Nebraska Nebraska -2.5 (48) Wisconsin 70-31 Underdog-Over
2011 Wisconsin-Michigan State Wisconsin -9.5 (56) Wisconsin 42-39 Underdog-Over