Cnotes 2017 College Football Picks-Trends-News Etc. !

[CNOTES]

Ole Miss stuns Miss St. in Egg Bowl
November 23, 2017


STARKVILLE, Miss. (AP) A.J. Brown thought the ball was overthrown, but kept sprinting and stuck his arms out as far as they would go. The Mississippi receiver was astonished when the ball stuck right in his hands and he ran for a crucial touchdown.


After a year of bad news, things were finally going the Rebels' way in the Egg Bowl.


Ole Miss stunned No. 16 Mississippi State 31-28 on Thursday night, jumping out to a big second-half lead and holding on in the final minutes to win the rivalry game for the fourth time in six seasons.


The Rebels (6-6, 3-5 Southeastern Conference) had a 10-6 lead at halftime and then broke the game open in the third quarter with Brown's 77-yard touchdown catch and another 63-yard touchdown pass to D.K. Metcalf.


''I'm just so happy for our players and our fans,'' Ole Miss interim coach Matt Luke said. ''This means so much to them. It hasn't always been easy this year. We've been on some better teams with better records, but they'll always remember this year and how they fought through adversity.''


It's a sweet ending to a rough season for the Rebels. Ole Miss isn't eligible for a bowl game because of a self-imposed postseason ban related to an NCAA infractions case that continues to hover over the program. The Rebels also lost head coach Hugh Freeze when he resigned during the summer after a school investigation into his phone records .


''The record wasn't what we wanted it to be,'' running back Jordan Wilkins said. ''But we kept fighting as a team ... There's no better feeling than to finish it off like this.''


Jordan Ta'amu threw for 247 yards and the two touchdowns to Brown and Metcalf. Wilkins added 110 yards rushing and two touchdowns.


Brown, the SEC's leader in yards receiving, had six catches for 167 yards. The sophomore went to high school a few miles away from Mississippi State's campus at Starkville High School and had a big game in his return.


Mississippi State (8-4, 4-4) was a two-touchdown favorite, but had to play most of the game without starting quarterback Nick Fitzgerald. He was carted off the field in the first quarter with a right leg injury.


Fitzgerald came into the game with 968 yards rushing this season, which was the most for a quarterback in the SEC. Without him, the Bulldogs turned to freshman Keytaon Thompson, but the offense wasn't nearly as effective until the fourth quarter.


The Bulldogs trailed 31-13 with 8:23 remaining, but scored two touchdowns to pull to 31-28 with 1:05 left. Ole Miss recovered an onside kick to seal the victory.


''We just ran out of time there at the end,'' Mississippi State coach Dan Mullen said. ''Our guys gave relentless effort for 60 minutes. I just wish we had 61 or 62.''


Mississippi State hurt itself with five turnovers - two interceptions and three fumbles.


The game took a rough turn later in the first quarter when Fitzgerald took a snap and ran to the left before being tackled to the ground. The 6-foot-5, 230-pound junior immediately grabbed at his right leg, which was bent at an awkward angle. He was down for several minutes before leaving on the cart.


Mullen said after the game that Fitzgerald dislocated his ankle, but didn't have any further information.


THE TAKEAWAY


Ole Miss: Ole Miss has an eventful offseason ahead of it - the program is still awaiting word on its full punishment from the NCAA in its rules infractions case against the school. The Rebels will also decide if they'll keep Luke or turn to someone else to lead the program.


After the game, players chanted ''We want Luke!'' in the locker room and Brown said he thought Luke should be the coach going forward.


''I really love that guy and I want him to be the head coach,'' Brown said.


Mississippi State: The Bulldogs had all the momentum coming into Thursday's game, but Fitzgerald's injury changed all that in a hurry.

UP NEXT


Ole Miss' season is over.


Mississippi State prepares for its eighth straight trip to a bowl game.

 

[CNOTES]

CFB November's Best Bets & Opinions ( All Best Bets Based On 5 Units Per Play )


DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD




11/23/20171-1-050.00%-0.50
11/21/20171-5-016.67%-22.50
11/18/2017 25-30-0 45.45% -40.00
11/17/2017 3-1-0 75.00% +9.50
11/16/2017 1-3-0 25.00% -11.50
11/15/2017 2-4-0 33.33% -12.00
11/14/2017 1-3-0 25.00% -1150
11/11/2017 28-26-4 51.85% -300
11/09/2017 3-3-0 50.00% -1.50
11/08/2017 1-5-0 16.67% -22.50
11/07/2017 1-3-0 25.00% -11.50
11/04/2017 26-28-2 48.15% -24.00
11/03/2017 2-4-0 33.33% -12.00
11/02/2017 4-4-0 50.00% -2.00
11/01/2017 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00


Totals.............101 - 120.........45.70%.....-145.00


Best Bets:*****
Best Bets :........................ATS............TOTALS.... .............O/U................TOTAL


11/22/2017......................0 - 1............-5.50...................1 - 0.................+5.00
11/21/2017......................0 - 3............-16.50.................1- 2..................-6.00
11/18/2017.....................17 - 18.........-14.00..................1 - 1.................-0.50
11/17/2017......................2 - 0...........+10.00.................1 -1...................-0.50
11/16/2017......................1 - 1...........-0.50....................0 - 2.................-11.00
11/15/2017......................1 - 0...........+5.00...................1 - 1.................-0.50
11/14/2017......................0 - 2...........-11.00..................1 - 1..................-0.50
11/11/2017....................6 - 7 - 1.........-8.50...................4 - 0..................+20.00
11/09/2017......................1 - 2............-6.00...................1 - 0..................+5.00
11/08/2017......................0 - 1............-5.50...................0 - 3..................-16.50
11/07/2017......................0 - 2............-11.00..................1 - 1..................-0.50
11/04/2017....................11 - 10..........+0.00...................5 - 2.................+14.00
11/03/2017......................2 - 1............+4.50..................0 - 2..................-11.00
11/02/2017......................2 - 0............+10.00................1 - 3..................-11.50
11/01/2017......................1 - 0............+5.00..................1 - 0 .................+5.00


Totals.........................44 - 48 - 1..........-44.00..................19 - 19..............-9.00

 

[CNOTES]

Friday's Best Bets
November 22, 2017


Black Friday College Football Best Bets


The Thanksgiving holiday brings four four days of football action between the college ranks and the pros and it's a great time to not only enjoy time with your family, but make add a few units to your betting bankroll as well.


It's also rivalry week in the college football world and with plenty of huge games on tap before Conference Championship games kick off in a week, the handle on some of these huge college games should be through the roof.


Black Friday is the day when college football fans get an extra day of that all-day Saturday feeling and this year we've got 15 different games spread out across the full day. There are definitely some high-profile matchups, headlined by #2 Miami laying nearly double-digits on the road against Pittsburgh, but it's two other games from slightly smaller conferences that I'll be focused on that day.


Best Bet #1: Buffalo Bulls +5


Teams in the MAC are used to having the spotlight on weekdays, but after Akron won (but didn't cover as I correctly predicted here) on Tuesday, the Zips clinched the East Division crown and left everyone else in the division simply playing out the string. That's notable for Buffalo's opponent in this game – the Ohio Bobcats – as despite a great year (8-3 SU overall) they won't have an opportunity to play for the Conference Championship next week after losing outright to Akron two weeks ago as double-digit favorites.


At 8-3 SU, the Bobcats have been Bowl eligible for awhile, and while a double-digit win season would be a nice feather in the cap, it's hard to imagine Ohio having any sort of motivation to come out and play their best football on Friday.


Conversely, Buffalo has been out of the MAC Championship picture for awhile, but with a 5-6 SU record overall, they've got everything to play for here – specifically becoming Bowl eligible. This is a program that hasn't been to a Bowl game since 2013, and getting HC Lance Leipold his first Bowl bid in his 3rd year with the program would be a huge accomplishment.


Schools love to make it to a Bowl game for all the money and benefits that come with it, but for coaches, that extra two to three weeks of practice time they get can be vital to a program, especially one that's still building for the future. So with the favorite in this game having basically no motivation and nothing really to play for, and a home underdog with seemingly everything to play for I simply can't pass up the points here.


Buffalo has turned it on down the stretch with two SU wins the last two weeks, and with an 8-3 ATS mark on the year, they've been kind to bettors throughout 2017. Close games against quality rivals is nothing new for the Bulls as three of their losses in conference play have come by three points or less. Two of those were one point defeats against the likes of Akron and Northern Illinois – both of whom were or are playing for a division title all year long, and the other was a three-point OT loss in a wild 71-68 six-OT game against Western Michigan.


Ohio is a similar caliber of team to all three of those opponents, but with zero motivation on the Bobcats side this week, don't be surprised to see Buffalo come away with the outright win to accomplish that goal of getting to a Bowl game.


Best Bet #2: South Florida +10


Motivation will not be an issue in this game as the 9-1 SU USF Bulls head to Central Florida to take on the #13 ranked UCF Knights. This is a game with 1st place in the AAC East Division on the line and subsequently a berth in the AAC Conference Championship game to face Memphis a week later as well. Oh, and don't forget about UCF's bid to finish the year undefeated and potentially be a “Bowl Buster” come selection time.


With the stakes as high as they are, seeing UCF laying double-digits was a bit perplexing, even more so when you consider nearly 70% of the ATS money has come there way already. Now, many bettors are bypassing the points with USF and simply grabbing the ML price (not a horrible idea if you ask me), but taking the points is the better play overall in a game that should go down to the wire. Both teams match up very well on either side of the ball, and USF does have that little mental edge in their favor knowing they've pounded UCF each of the past two years in 48-31 and 44-3 victories.


With UCF HC Scott Frost being the hot name in coaching to jump to a bigger program in the very near future, you've always got to wonder about focus in terms of getting his guys prepared. Seemingly every year around this time of the year we've got a handful of coaches who've had great success at Mid-Majors jumping ship in December for that big payday elsewhere, and when that does happen it's the team they left behind that suffers mightily. UCF isn't in that spot as of now, but there is no doubt it's on everyone's mind, and if they do end up losing this game SU – costing them their perfect season and AAC Championship berth, don't be surprised to hear Frost's name directly connected to one of those big schools with coaching vacancies he's been linked to for weeks.


Regarding this game though, it's simply too many points to give a very good USF team that is led by a guy in Charlie Strong who has already lived the “success at small school – big payday at big program – and subsequent struggles at said big program” that Frost's situation is just entering. Strong may not be the greatest CFB coach out there, but his team has been looking ahead to this showdown for weeks as evidenced by a pair of “close” wins over Uconn (37-20) and Tulsa (27-20) when the Bulls were laying -23 and -24 points respectively. I've always subscribed to the notion that fading programs in potential look-ahead spots can be highly lucrative, but when the game that team has been waiting for finally arrives, you'd better be prepared to back them in a big way.


That is precisely the situation the USF Bulls have here, and with all the noise about a potential perfect season and Frost's departure from the program (likely), there are just too many concerns with UCF in this spot as healthy favorites. USF is on a 5-1 ATS run in their last six against a winning foe – which also tells you just how much they've had their focus on this game with since losing outright to Houston a few weeks back (they are 0-4 ATS against lesser competition the past four weeks) – and should stay well within this number of +10, if not win the game outright.

 

[CNOTES]

Friday's Tip Sheet
November 23, 2017


**Missouri at Arkansas**


-- Missouri (6-5 straight up, 7-4 against the spread) is absolutely on fire. Barry Odom’s team took a 1-3 SU record and a 0-4 ATS mark into its open date following a 51-14 home loss to Auburn. Since then, however, the Tigers have covered the number in seven straight games. They covered as underdogs in losses at Kentucky (40-34) and at Georgia (53-28), and then proceeded to win five in a row by margins of 47, 40, 29, 33 and 28 points. During this seven-game ATS surge, junior quarterback Drew Lock has an amazing 28/4 touchdown-to-interception ratio.


-- Missouri bolted out to a 35-0 halftime lead at Vanderbilt last week, essentially placing a pad lock on covering as a 7.5-point road favorite in the game’s first 30 minutes. Odom’s team would prevail by a 45-17 count, with the 62 combined points dropping ‘under’ the closing 64.5-point total. This was a heartbreaker for those like me that were on the ‘over.’ That’s because the Commodores came up empty on a drive covering 78 yards late in the fourth quarter. On first and goal from the Missouri five-yard line, Kyle Shurmur threw an incomplete pass. Then he was sacked on second and goal for a three-yard loss, but an unsportsmanlike conduct call on the Tigers gave Vandy another first and goal at the four. The next play was a three-yard loss, but Missouri was offsides to create a third first-and-goal play from the 2-yard line. This time around, Shurmur was intercepted, but Terry Beckner Jr. appeared to be in the clear for a pick-six. With just one man to beat near midfield, a shoestring tackle was made to stop Beckner 47 yards short of a pick-six TD that would’ve cashed tickets for ‘over’ supporters. OUCH!


-- Lock completed 10-of-25 throws at Vandy for 235 yards and three TDs without an interception. Ish Witter rushed 16 times for 102 yards, while redshirt freshman TE Albert Okwuegbunam had five receptions for 116 yards and two TDs. Richaud Floyd had a 30-yard TD catch and also scored on a 74-yard punt return.


-- For the season, Lock has connected on 58.0 percent of his passes for 3,247 yards with a 38/10 TD-INT ratio. Witter has run for 822 yards and four TDs, averaging 6.2 yards per carry. True freshman RB Larry Rountree has rushed for 577 yards and six scores while averaging 5.9 YPC. Damarea Crockett had rushed for 481 yards and two TDs with a 6.9 YPC average, but he injured his shoulder at UGA and will miss a sixth consecutive game at Arkansas.


-- J’Mon Moore is Lock’s favorite target, hauling in 50 receptions for 857 yards and nine TDs. Emanuel Hall has 31 catches for 706 yards and six TDs, while Johnathon Johnson has 37 grabs for 615 yards and five TDs. Okwuegbunam has 20 receptions for 309 yards and nine TDs. Floyd is incredible on special teams, averaging 19.8 yards per punt return with two TDs. He also has 14 catches for 170 yards and two TDs.


-- Missouri is ranked 11th in the nation in total offense, 16th in passing yards and 14th in scoring with a 38.5 points-per-game average.


-- As of early Thursday, most books had Missouri installed as a 9 or 9.5-point favorite with a total of 70. The Razorbacks were +290 on the money line (risk $100 to win $290).


-- Missouri has compiled a 4-0 spread record with a pair of outright wins on the road this year. The Tigers are 2-0 ATS as road ‘chalk’ since Odom took over at the start of the 2016 campaign. Both of those covers as road favorites came this season.


-- Arkansas (4-7 SU, 3-7-1 ATS) is 2-3 SU and 1-3-1 ATS at home. The Razorbacks covered the spread in last week’s 28-21 home loss to Mississippi State as 14-point home underdogs. Austin Allen was playing in his second game since returning from a shoulder injury that caused him to miss four consecutive contests. Allen completed just 12-of-18 passes for 124 yards, and the offense generated just 221 yards. Nevertheless, Arkansas never trailed until 17 seconds were left and the Bulldogs scored the game-winning TD on a six-yard pass from Nick Fitzgerald to Deddrick Thomas.


-- Arkansas is 1-6 in SEC play, picking up its only win at Ole Miss when it rallied from a 24-point deficit to win 37-35 on a last-second field goal. The Razorbacks have gone 2-2 in four one-possession games. They’re 7-7 ATS in 14 spots as home underdogs during Bret Bielema’s five-year tenure


-- Arkansas is 29-33 on Bielema’s watch, limping to an 11-28 record in SEC games. This is why Bielema’s tenure is guaranteed to come to an end at some point on Sunday or Monday at the latest. Multiple reports indicate that the Razorbacks’ top target to hire as their next head coach is former offensive coordinator and current Auburn head coach Gus Malzahn. This potential hire undoubtedly hinges on the result of Saturday’s Iron Bowl. Malzahn won’t be leaving The Plains if his team wins the SEC West. Arkansas would be wise to make Washington State’s Mike Leach its next target, but it would probably need Washington to win the Apple Cup for that notion to become remotely possible. Perhaps West Virginia’s Dana Holgorsen would be interested? If not, Mike Norvell at Memphis is certainly someone who would accept an offer.


-- The ‘over’ is 6-5 overall for the Tigers, 2-2 in their four road assignments. They’ve seen their games average combined scores of 69.1 points per game. However, the ‘under’ has cashed in three of their last four games.


-- The ‘over’ is 6-5 overall for the Hogs, 3-3 in their home contests. They’ve seen their games average combined scores of 62.4 PPG. This is the highest Arkansas total has seen this season by eight points. It has had three totals in the 60s (62, 61 & 60.5), watching the ‘over’ go 2-1 in those three outings.


-- These schools have met five times since 2003, with the ‘under’ cashing in each encounter. In the three meetings between these schools since Missouri joined the SEC, the home team has prevailed every time. The Tigers rallied in the second half in 2014 to win a 21-14 decision as two-point home underdogs. In ’15 at Arkansas, the Razorbacks won 28-3 and also took the cash as 15-point home ‘chalk.’ Then last season back in Columbia, Missouri won 28-24 as a 7.5-point home underdog. The Tigers trailed 24-7 at intermission, only to outscore the Hogs 21-0 in the second half. Arkansas enjoyed a 503-399 advantage in total offense, but Allen threw a pair of costly second-half interceptions. He completed 24-of-39 throws for 349 yards and one TD. Lock connected on 16-of-26 passes for 268 yards and one TD without a pick. Moore had six catches for 135 yards. This defeat, coupled with Arkansas blowing a 24-0 halftime lead over Virginia Tech at last year’s Belk Bowl to lose 35-24, is what started Bielema’s demise in the Ozarks.


-- Kickoff is scheduled for 2:30 p.m. Eastern on CBS.

**South Florida at Central Florida**

-- This game will decide the winner of the AAC’s East Division and determine a challenger for Memphis is next week’s AAC Championship Game. As of early Thursday, most books had UCF (10-0 SU, 6-3-1 ATS) installed as a 10-point favorite with a total of 63. The Bulls were +300 to win outright (risk $100 to win $300).


-- Both teams have had to listen to rumors of their respective coaches being linked to other jobs over the last two weeks. UCF’s second-year head coach Scott Frost is a Nebraska alum and his parents live in Lincoln. He is believed to be the Cornhuskers’ top choice to replace Mike Riley, who is going to be fired before the end of the weekend. Frost is also thought to be on Florida’s radar, as is USF’s Charlie Strong, who spent most of his years as an assistant coach at UF before scoring his first head-coaching gig at Louisville. Strong was the defensive coordinator for the Gators when they won two of their three national titles. Strong may also draw interest from Ole Miss in its coaching search.


-- When Frost took over in Orlando, UCF was coming off a dreadful 0-12 campaign. In his first year at the helm, Frost led the Knights to an 8-5 record and a bowl bid. And now in Year 2, he has a 19-5 overall record and is on the cusp of winning the division and perhaps a conference championship.


-- UCF is unbeaten in five home games with a 3-2 spread record. The Knights have won their home outings by margins of 44, 27, 42, 40 and 25 points. The only non-covers came when they were laying enormous numbers of 43.5 and 39.


-- UCF has become overpriced over the last month and change. This is evidenced by the Knights’ 1-3-1 spread record in their last five outings. This 10-point spread vs. USF is the lowest line for UCF since it won 31-21 at Navy on Oct. 21.


-- UCF is led by true sophomore QB McKenzie Milton, who has completed 69.6 percent of his passes for 2,928 yards with a 26/5 TD-INT ratio. Milton can make plays with his legs, too. He has rushed for 373 yards and five TDs while averaging 5.3 YPC. Sophomore RB Adrian Killins Jr. has rushed for a team-high 629 yards and eight TDs, averaging 7.5 YPC. The Knight have four other RBs who have run for at least 144 yards. Taj McGowan has eight rushing scores.


-- Milton’s favorite target is Tre’Quan Smith, who has 44 receptions for 850 yards and 11 TDs. Dredrick Snelson has 29 catches for 430 yards and three TDs.


--UCF won its 11 straight game last week when it went to Philadelphia and captured a 45-19 victory at Temple as a 13.5-point road favorite. The 64 combined points went ‘over’ the 59.5-point to hit for a second straight time for the Knights, who have seen the ‘over’ go 5-2 in their last seven contests. After falling behind 10-7 early in the second quarter, UCF went on a 38-3 run and coasted into the win column both SU and ATS. Milton threw for 208 yards and four TDs without an interception. True freshman RB Otis Anderson rushed for a team-best 58 yards on only five attempts, while Milton also scored on a four-yard TD run. Senior LB Shaqueem Griffin had one of UCF’s four interceptions.


-- UCF’s most impressive scalps include a 40-13 home win over Memphis, a 38-10 win at Maryland, a 31-21 triumph at Navy and a 31-24 victory at SMU.


-- Griffin is the leader for the Knights on defense. A first-team All-AAC selection last year, he has recorded 47 tackles, three sacks, 4.5 tackles for loss, six QB hurries, two forced fumbles, one pass broken up, one interception and one fumble recovery that he returned 20 yards for a TD.


-- UCF is ranked fifth in the nation in total offense and first in scoring, averaging an FBS-high 48.2 PPG. The Knights are 11th in the country in passing yards and 32nd in rushing yards. They’re ranked 27th in the nation in scoring defense (20.5 PPG).


-- USF (9-1 SU, 4-6 ATS) has won all four of its road assignments, but it has managed only a 1-3 spread record. With that said, we should note that this is the Bulls’ first game as underdogs since facing FSU in Week 4 of the ’16 campaign. Not only has USF been favored in each game this season, but it has been a double-digit ‘chalk’ in all 10 games of this year and the last three of ’16.


-- Charlie Strong’s team played a cupcake schedule, which certainly isn’t a reflection upon him. He arrived to replace Willie Taggart, who went to Oregon after leading the Bulls to an 11-win season in ’16. Strong was relieved of his duties at Texas after three disappointing years. He didn’t make this year’s USF schedule. Nevertheless, USF won its first six games by margins of at least 14 points. The Bulls are mired in a 0-4 ATS slump, however.


-- USF took its first loss of the season at home against Houston on October 28. The Cougars came to Tampa and beat the Bulls, 28-24, as 10-point road underdogs. Strong’s bunch either led or was tied for the first 59 minutes 49 seconds, but Houston scored the game-winning TD on a D’Eriq King 20-yard TD run with 11 seconds remaining. Quinton Flowers threw for 325 yards and had a pair of TD runs in the losing effort. Marquez Valdes-Scantling had 10 receptions for 186 yards.


-- Flowers hasn’t been able to match his numbers from ’16 when he ran for 1,530 yards and 18 TDs with a 7.7 YPC average. He also threw for 2,812 yards with a 24/7 TD-INT ratio. This year as a senior, Flowers has completed 53.5 percent of his passes (down from 62.5%) for 2,097 yards with a 17/5 TD-INT ratio. He has run for 870 yards and nine TDs with a 5.4 YPC average. Darius Tice has rushed for 860 yards and 10 TDs while averaging 5.6 YPC. D’Ernest Johnson has run for 715 yards and seven TDs, with a 4.3 YPC average.


-- Valdes-Scantling has a team-best 48 receptions for 737 yards and five TDs. Tyre McCants has 21 catches for 371 yards and four TDs.


-- Since 2007, the Bulls have compiled a 19-9 spread record in 28 games as a road underdog. However, this is their first such spot since winning 22-17 at East Carolina as four-point ‘dogs late in the ’15 campaign.


-- The ‘over’ is 6-4 overall for the Knights, 4-1 in their home games. They’ve seen their games average combined scores of 68.7 PPG.


-- The ‘under’ is 7-3 overall for USF, 2-2 in its road assignments. The Bulls have seen their games average combined scores of 57.8 PPG.


-- ABC will have the telecast at 3:30 p.m. Eastern.


**B.E’s Bonus Nuggets**


-- Chip Kelly isn’t signing a contract with any school until at least Sunday because if he gets a new job before that team’s 2017 season is done, he won’t get a guaranteed $5 million payment from the San Francisco 49ers.


-- I’m not implying Jimbo Fisher will jump from FSU to Texas A&M or Auburn (if this job opens, which would potentially happen if Auburn loses the Iron Bowl and Gus Malzahn bolts for Arkansas. Then again, this Malzahn-to-the-Ozarks rumor, especially the part about him having input on the new AD, is probably just Jimmie Sexton’s nonsense noise to his media minions for the purpose of getting Malzahn an extension and more cash from AU.) But if he does, the buyout payment to FSU from Fisher or the school that hires him is only $8 million. You may have seen reports/tweets, etc. about Fisher’s buyout being north of $35 million, but that number only pertains to what the Seminoles would have to pay Fisher if they wanted to fire him before his contract is over.


-- Washington State owns a 14-5 spread record in its last 19 games as a road underdog. The Cougars were +9.5 as of Thursday for their Saturday game at Washington for the Apple Cup. A Washington State win puts it in the Pac-12 Championship Game, while a UW victory means Stanford would face USC to determine the league champ.


-- Stanford has been a home underdog just three times during David Shaw’s seven-year tenure, winning outright in each instance, including a 30-22 win over Washington two weeks ago. In fact, if we go back to the 2007 regular-season finale, Stanford has compiled an 8-0 spread record with seven outright victories in eight games as a home ‘dog.

 

[CNOTES]

Fading Alabama
November 23, 2017


Bet Against Alabama Winning The CFP Championship


It’s pretty much a foregone conclusion that the Alabama Crimson Tide are going to be part of the College Football Playoffs. Right now they’re +130 to win the title, which is all fair play. There’s still a lot of football to play, but it’s hard to imagine the Tide slipping out of the picture.


What could help trigger an earthquake in the standings is the Alabama-Auburn game this weekend. The Iron Bowl is one of my favorite betting matchups of the year and it should be amongst yours as well. What makes this year so tantalizing? Well for one, the Crimson Tide are favored by just -4.5 points on the road.


That’s the lowest spread this matchup has had in a decade, and equal to the line the Tide faced in 2010 when Cam Newton led the most insane comeback of all time.


For whatever it’s worthy, while my head really wants to bet on Alabama as a freight train, I do not love them on the road this year. Alabama has recently survived Mississippi State 31-24 as -14.5 point favorites and Texas A&M as 27-19 facing a -25.0 point line. If any team plays with an arrogant confidence that they can take down Alabama, it’s the Auburn Tigers.


What’s even more intriguing about this matchup is how it impacts the future of the College Football Playoffs. If you look at the list below, there are at least eight teams that are properly in the mix. This ranges from Ohio State at +1600 all the way up to Alabama at +130. And as you know, there’s only room for four teams in the playoffs.


Odds to Win College Football Playoffs - per BetOnline.ag
Alabama +130
Clemson +400
Oklahoma +600
Auburn +700
Miami +800
Georgia +1000
Wisconsin +1200
Ohio State +1600


You’re going to look at these odds one of two ways. Either you believe that the Crimson Tide’s +130 price tag to win the championship this year is as good as gold…or you don’t. So where do you put your money? Do you like Baker Mayfield? Urban Meyer? The defending champions?


Or would you just like to bet on everybody else? That’s right – you can bet on the field (i.e. the rest of the country) to win the CFP Championship straight up for -150. That’s a hell of a deal.


Alabama to Win College Football Playoffs
Yes +130
No -150


The beauty of the playoffs is that anything can happen. The pressure of winning two games back-to-back can be overwhelming, and while this Alabama team is rolling heavy, they’re not unbeatable. No team ever really is. Having to saddle up against two great college football teams is an immeasurably difficult task and the Tide aren’t so far ahead of the class that they’re a guarantee.


So if you love Alabama, take them at +130. They’re a great bet because they’re always in the playoff picture and knocking on the door to the championship. Most of the time, they win it.


But if there’s a part of you that loathes Nick Saban, can’t stand Alabama’s dynasty or simply prefers anyone else on the board, then -150 is a great value for a field play.

 

[CNOTES]

Inside the Stats - Week 13
November 22, 2017


Stats don’t lie. People who interpret them do.


Let’s take a look at how teams are performing this season ‘Inside The Stats’.

LOOKING INSIDE THE STATS


Here are the teams who won phony games ‘inside-out’ ITS (In The Stats) but were out-gained by 100 or more yards in their last game. This week includes:


College Football: Wake Forest
NFL: Cincinnati, Tampa Bay


PUTTIN’ ON THE STATS PLAY LIST


Listed below are the qualifying teams to date with their respective ITS win-loss records that have either won or lost all - or all but one – of their games in the stats. Play accordingly as long as these teams remain on this list from now thru the end of the season.


Play On ITS teams: Alabama 10-1, Central Florida 9-1, Georgia 10-1, Oklahoma 11-0, Oklahoma State 10-1, South Florida 10-0, and Wisconsin 11-0.


Play Against ITS teams: Connecticut 0-10-1, Rutgers 1-10, and UTEP 1-10.


WHAT HAVE YOU DONE FOR ME LATELY


It’s apparent that certain teams are in current form that is diametrically opposite to that of their overall season-to-date team stats.


The net differential of their overall team stats, with a net difference of 100 YPG or more since Game Seven (the second-half of the season), as opposed to the overall season-to-date team stats, are contained below. You would be wise to observe these opposite-form comparison teams.


Positive Game Seven Out Net Stats: East Carolina +104, Georgia Southern +109, and Missouri +154.


Negative Game Seven Out Net Stats: Ball State -118, Georgia Tech -107, Oklahoma State -104, Oregon -104, and Virginia -104.


LEAKING OIL


Each week on the football card each we isolate favorites that have been out-gained in each of their last three games.


We call them ‘leaking oil’ favorites for reasons that are self-explanatory. Here are this week’s Pennzoil favorites and their current ITS losing skein record.


College Football: Kansas State 0-8, Wyoming 0-3.


NFL: Cincinnati Bengals 0-5, Washington Redskins 0-5.

SEASON-HIGH, SEASON-LOW


One of the gauges of how a team can be expected to perform on the field is how they go toe-to-toe with other teams throughout the course of a season.


When a team holds another to season-low yardage it’s an indicator that their defense is legit. Conversely, when they allow foes season-high yards their defense is waning and trouble is generally looming.


With that thought in mind, below is a list of teams that have held four or more FBS opponents to either season-low marks, or season-high yards this campaign, along with the amount of times they have accomplished the feat this season to date:


Season-lows: Alabama 5, Boston College 4, Clemson 5, Michigan 6, Michigan State 4, Ohio State 5, TCU 6, Texas 4, Virginia Tech 4, Washington 5, Washington State 5.


Season-highs: Bowling Green 4, UCLA 4, UL Lafayette 5, and UL Monroe 5.


On the NFL side of things…


Season-lows: Carolina Panthers 4, Jacksonville Jaguars 6.


Season-highs: Buffalo Bills 0-3, New York Giants 3, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3


STAT OF THE WEEK


South Florida has scored 24 or more points in each of its last 27 games. Central Florida is 3-18 SU and 4-17 ATS in its last 21 lined games in which it has yielded 24 or more points.

 

[CNOTES]

Pac-12 Report - Week 13
November 23, 2017


2017 PAC-12 STANDINGS


Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under
Arizona 7-4 5-3 6-5 8-3
Arizona State 6-5 5-3 6-5 5-6
California 5-6 2-6 7-4 5-6
Colorado 5-6 2-6 3-7-1 6-5
Oregon 6-5 3-5 5-6 4-7
Oregon State 1-10 0-8 3-8 8-3
Southern California 10-2 8-1 3-8-1 7-5
Stanford 8-3 7-2 4-6-1 4-7
UCLA 5-6 3-5 4-7 8-3
Utah 5-6 2-6 7-3-1 6-5
Washington 9-2 6-2 6-5 5-6
Washington State 9-2 6-2 7-4 4-7


California at UCLA (Fri. - FOX Sports 1, 10:30 p.m. ET)
The Golden Bears and Bruins close out their regular season on Friday night, and it's an important game. The winner gains bowl eligibility and the loser is home for the holidays. Cal opened the season with a win and cover at North Carolina, but they have dropped each of their past four road games while going 1-3 ATS. UCLA kicked off their season with an amazing 45-44 comeback against Texas A&M, and they haven't lose at the Rose Bowl since. They're 5-0 SU/3-2 ATS in five outings at home this season. The home team is 13-3-1 ATS in the past 17 meetings in this series, with the underdog 14-6-1 ATS in the past 21 in this series. However, Cal is just 1-6-1 ATS in their past eight tries at UCLA, with the under 4-1 in the past five in Pasadena. The under is 4-0 in the past four in this series, too.


Arizona at Arizona State (Pac-12 Network, 4:30 p.m. ET)
The Grand Canyon State rivalry takes place in Tempe, and both teams are already eligible for the postseason. However, they can certainly improve their bowl profile with a victory, especially Arizona if they can get to eight victories. The Wildcats have cashed in just eight of the past 25 games overall, while going 5-11 ATS in the past 16 conference tilts. They're also a dismal 2-10 ATS in the past 12 games on the road, including 1-7 ATS in the past eight on the road against teams with a winning home record. Arizona State is 4-1 ATS in their past five against teams with a winning record, and 6-2 ATS over their past eight league games. They're also 11-4 ATS in the past 15 at home. In this series, the home team has hit in each of the past four meetings and the over is 5-0 in the past five in the series.


Oregon State at Oregon (ESPN2, 7:00 p.m. ET)
The 1-10 Beavers head to Eugene looking to put a damper on the closing of their rivals' season. However, Oregon has already clinched bowl eligibility, and they're loooking to enter the postseason on a high note. The Beavers are 1-5 ATS in their past six on the road, while going 3-8 ATS in the past 11 overall. The Ducks haven't been much better lately, posting a 5-13 ATS mark in the past 18 conference battles, while going 0-5 ATS in the past five against losing teams and 1-9-1 ATS in their past 11 after a straight-up win. Oregon is up to a 25-point favorite as of Thursday morning, which is pretty high for the 'Civil War'. The Beavers are 4-0-1 ATS in the past five trips to Eugene, and the road team is 9-1-1 ATS in the past 11 in this series. The underdog is also 7-3-1 ATS in the past 11 meetings in this series. The over has cashed in seven straight in Eugene, and 12-3 in the past 15 meetings overall.

Notre Dame at Stanford (ABC, 8:00 p.m. ET)
Notre Dame heads to 'The Farm' looking to get back into the playoff conversation. A humbling loss at Miami has them on the outside looking in, but an impressive win and some craziness this weekend and in conference championships could get them back in the mix. However, they need to slow the dynamic Bryce Love and the Cardinal offense. Stanford finds themselves as short 'dogs at home, but they're 3-1-1 ATS in the past five against teams with a winning record. The Cardinal are also 7-3 ATS in the past 10 home games against a team with a winning road mark. Notre Dame is 7-19 ATS in the past 26 in November, and 1-4 ATS in the past five road games against a team with a winning home record. The underdog is also 5-0 ATS in the past five meetings, with the under cashing in six of the past seven.The Irish are 4-1 ATS in the past five trips to Palo Alto, while the road team is 4-1 ATS in the past five in this series.


Washington State at Washington (FOX, 8:00 p.m. ET)
It's time for the Apple Cup, and the Huskies can punch their ticket to the Pac-12 Championship Game against USC with a win. If Washington State is victorious, Stanford heads to the league title game. Vegas thinks the Huskies will be victorious, as they're installed as a double-digit favorite heading into this one. Both sides are 5-1 ATS in their past six against winning teams, and the Cougars are 7-2 ATS in their past nine overall while the Huskies have hit in five of their past seven at home. Looking at the head-to-head numbers might help you decide a side. The favorite has cashed in six of the past eight in this series, while the Cougs are 2-6 ATS in the past eight meetings. The under has hit in seven of the past nine meetings in Seattle.


Colorado at Utah (FOX Sports 1, 10:00 p.m. ET)
The Buffaloes and Utes wrap up the Pac-12 regular season, and Utah is installed as a 10 1/2-point favorite as of Thursday morning. Like Cal-UCLA above, this is an important game. The winner will become bowl eligible, while the loser will be left shaking their heads, watching the winner on TV during bowl season from the comfort of their couch. The Buffs are 1-4-1 ATS in their past six in conference, while going 1-4 ATS in the past five on the road. They're also a dismal 1-5 ATS in their past six on the road against a team with a losing home record. The Utes are a solid 7-3-1 ATS in their past 11 overall, but just 1-5 ATS in their past six tries against Colorado. The underdog has cashed in six in a row in this series.


Bye Week
Southern California

 

[CNOTES]

Big 12 Report - Week 13
November 22, 2017


2017 BIG 12 STANDINGS


Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under
Baylor 1-10 1-7 4-7 4-7
Iowa State 7-4 5-3 9-1-1 4-7
Kansas 1-10 0-8 4-7 6-5
Kansas State 6-5 4-4 5-5-1 6-5
Oklahoma 10-1 7-1 6-5 6-5
Oklahoma State 8-3 5-3 5-6 8-3
Texas 6-5 5-3 7-3-1 3-8
Texas Christian 9-2 6-2 6-5 2-9
Texas Tech 5-6 2-6 6-5 4-7
West Virginia 7-4 5-3 5-5-1 6-4-1


Baylor at Texas Christian (Fri. - FOX Sports 1, 12:00 p.m. ET)
The lost season for the Bears will come to an end at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth. The Horned Frogs have bigger aspirations, as they put their 5-0 SU home record on the line. Neither side has been particularly strong against the number this season. Baylor is 10-21 ATS over the past 31 games overall, 3-8 ATS in the past 11 road games and 1-7 ATS in the past eight in the month of November. TCU is just 2-5 ATS in their past seven against losing teams, 2-11 ATS in their past 13 at home and 1-5 ATS in their past six at home against teams with a losing road record. The 'under' has been the play for both sides. The under is 4-0 in the past four for Baylor, 4-1 in their past five road games and 6-0 in their past six on the road against a team with a winning home record. The under is 4-1 in TCU's past five home games, 16-5 in the past 21 games overall and 20-7 in the past 27 conference battles. The Bears are 0-5 ATS in the past five meetings, although the underdog is 6-0 ATS in the past six. The over is 5-1 in the past six meetings, too.

Texas Tech at Texas (Fri. - FOX, 8:00 p.m.)
The Longhorns secured bowl eligibility last weekend with a big win on the road at West Virginia. Now, they look to play spoiler to Texas Tech, keeping them from bowl eligibility, while improving their standing and potential payday in the postseason with another win. Texas heads into this one as a double-digit favorite, and they're 2-1 ATS over their past three favored by 10 or more points while going a perfect 3-0 SU. The Red Raiders are just 1-5 ATS in their past six conference games, 1-5 ATS in the past six overall and 0-4 ATS in the past four against teams with a winning mark. The Longhorns are 7-2-1 ATS in their past 10, and 3-1-1 ATS in their past five conference battles. The road team has hit in four of the past five in this series, but the Red Raiders are a dismal 1-6 ATS over the past seven meetings. The under has hit in four of the past five battles in this rivalry.


Kansas at Oklahoma State (FOX Sports 1, 12:00 p.m. ET)
The Jayhawks wrap up another dismal season in Stillwater, and they're underdogs by 40-plus points. The Cowboys are looking to rebound after dropping two of the past three overall, including two in a row at home. The Cowboys are also in a tailspin against the number, too, going 0-3 ATS in the past three, and 2-6 ATS across the past eight. The 'over' has hit in four in a row, too. The Jayhawks have dropped 10 in a row since topping FCS foe Southeast Missouri State in their opener. However, they have been a respectable 3-1 ATS over their past four, including 3-0 ATS as an underdog of 24 or more points. The Jayhawks are a dismal 3-11 ATS in the past 14 in this series, including 1-6 ATS in their past seven sojourns to Stillwater.


Iowa State at Kansas State (ESPN2, 3:30 p.m. ET)
Both the Cyclones and Wildcats are going bowling this season, but they would like to add another win to their resume and improve their postseason situation. Maybe people felt K-State would be in this position, heading to the postseason, but not many felt Iowa State would be in this spot. They have won some big games, including at Oklahoma earlier in the season, while posting a 6-0-1 ATS mark in the past seven conference games, and 4-0-1 ATS in the past five road outings. K-State is 7-3 ATS in the past 10 home games agaisnt a team with a winning road record, but 2-8 ATS in their past 10 following a straight-up win. The under is 5-1 in Iowa State's past six overall, 4-1 in their past five road games and 5-1 in the past six league outings. The Cyclones are also 4-1-1 ATS in the past six meetings, with the home team 3-1-1 ATS in the past five in this series and the underdog posting a 4-1-1 ATS mark across the past six.

West Virginia at Oklahoma (ESPN, 3:45 p.m. ET)
In the final league game of the afternoon, the Mountaineers and Sooners battle each other with a different starting quarterback under center. West Virginia's Will Grier suffered a broken finger and he will be sidelined four to six weeks after having corrective surgery. Chris Chugunov will start in his absence. For Oklahoma, Baker Mayfield didn't care for Kansas not shaking his hand last week. He was caught on camera grabbing his crotch and spewing expletives at the Kansas bench, and he has been suspended as a result. While head coach Lincoln Riley did not specify how long the senior QB will sit, Kyler Murray will start the game, and Mayfield will also not serve as a team captain in his final game in Norman.


OU opened as a 21-point favorite, and the line is up to 22 1/2 as of early Wednesday morning. The Mountaineers are 3-1-1 ATS in the past five against winning teams, while going 1-3-1 ATS over their past five overall. Oklahoma has cashed in 10 of their past 11 against teams with a winning mark, and they're 9-1 ATS across their past 10 at home, with that only non-cover coming in an upset loss to Iowa State. The over has connected in five of the past six meetings in this series, too.

 

[CNOTES]

Bucket Bowl: Indiana, Purdue put postseason hopes on line
November 24, 2017


Indiana and Purdue head into their regular-season finale with the same Bucket list.


Both want to reclaim the series' coveted trophy - and both want the bowl bid that will accompany this year's Old Oaken Bucket celebration.


It's an unprecedented showdown for the ages: Win and advance, lose and go home.


''This is a position you cherish being in,'' Boilermakers coach Jeff Brohm said. ''Like I said, there's a lot riding on this football game. We'll make sure they're going to come ready to play and be jacked up to play in this one.''


Why wouldn't they be?


The first 119 games of his bitter rivalry have been full of emotion and drama.


In 2007, Austin Starr made a 49-yard field goal with 30 seconds left to end Indiana's 14-year postseason drought - five months after coach Terry Hoeppner died. His widow, Jane, shed tears when the final gun sounded.


In 2000, Drew Brees led Purdue to a 41-13 rout, clinching a share of the conference of the conference title and a bucket full of roses. The Boilermakers walked away with their first Rose Bowl bid since 1967 and the second ever.


In 1989, freshman Scott Bonnell missed a 26-yard field goal as time expired, giving Purdue its third win. The loss knocked Indiana out of the bowl picture and may have cost Anthony Thompson the Heisman Trophy.


But never before has it been winner takes all.


Ticket sales have surged this week and there's been talk of a possible sellout to catch the improved Hoosiers (5-6, 2-6 Big Ten) and the surprising Boilermakers (5-6, 3-5) one more time, perhaps one last time.


''It's going to be an absolute dogfight, and that's the way it should be,'' Indiana coach Tom Allen said. ''I'm sure every year, and I haven't gone back and studied every single Bucket game, but I know for sure this year everything we're saying is what the environment is going to be and the circumstances for the game, so that makes it really extra special.''


There are other bragging rights at stake, too.


Brohm is trying to end Purdue's four-year bowl drought and become the first Boilermakers coach to reach a bowl game in his debut season since the late Joe Tiller in 1997.


The Hoosiers can set a new school record by winning their fifth consecutive Bucket game.


Nice, yes.


But three weeks after each team's postseason hopes seemed to be dangling on the edge, they are here with a chance to capture the Bucket and the postseason ticket.


''I think that's exciting for this game, and to be able to be in a game like this that has so much passion and meaning outside of anything else other than just the game itself,'' Allen said, referring to Purdue's upset at Iowa last week. ''Then you add in the component of how they're playing, how we're playing, and what we're playing for, it just makes it pretty special.''


Here are some other things to watch Saturday:


THE SCOREBOARDS


While the winner becomes bowl-eligible, the loser may not necessarily be eliminated.


After last weekend 70 teams had the required six wins to qualify for one of the 39 bowls and the four playoff spots. Four games Saturday, including this one, have two five-win teams essentially competing in play-in games.


That means as many as six 5-7 teams could make the postseason and that will be determined by Academic Progress Rate scores. If that happens, Indiana (982) would have the edge over Purdue (971).


THE HISTORY


Full-time first-year Purdue coaches are 12-12-1 all-time against Indiana. But the Boilermakers have had the upper hand when both coaches are new.


The last time it happened was 1997 when Tiller's team beat Cam Cameron's Hoosiers 56-7. It also happened in 1973, when Purdue's Alex Agase beat Indiana's Lee Corso 28-23. In 1922, the two teams played to a 7-7 tie under first-year coaches James P. Herron (Indiana) and Jim Phelan (Purdue).


THE COACHES


Allen and Brohm will be on opposite sidelines, but they have plenty in common.


Both grew up the sons of successful high school coaches. Both took unconventional turns in their coaching careers. And they have mutual respect for one another.


''He's coached a lot of football. He's a very good defensive coach, is a good person, does things the right way,'' Brohm said of Allen.


THE DEFENSES


Purdue and Indiana have traditionally relied upon high-scoring offenses.


This year, they are being led by stout defenses.


Indiana has given up 14 points over the last two weeks, its fewest in back-to-back conference games since 1993, and has posted two shutouts this season.


Purdue has limited four consecutive opponents to fewer than 100 yards rushing and, through 11 games, has allowed the fewest points (208) in school history under a new coach.

 

[CNOTES]

The Dozen: Thanksgiving Leftovers
November 24, 2017


Normally, we crank out 12 games on “the Dozen,” ranking the top matchups on the college stage each weekend. This isn’t your typical weekend.


Since the card is essentially split up with one-third of the games being played Friday due to the holiday, we’ve got to split things up too. Look for more breakdowns of Saturday’s top action, highlighted by the Iron Bowl, later. Hope you all enjoyed Thanksgiving and best wishes for a speedy recovery to Mississippi State quarterback Nick Fitzgerald. Here is a breakdown of Friday’s top tilts:


1. USF at UCF, 3:30 p.m. ET: Tossing aside the records is normal in this rivalry game, except for this season. The uninitiated may roll their eyes at the thought of these two young programs having anything close to a legitimate “rivalry,” but that’s because you just don’t know the history. This isn’t Florida Atlantic and Florida International playing the “Shula Bowl” while most in South Florida chuckle or shrug. Although these schools are separated by roughly an hour’s drive between Orlando and Tampa, it’s not about proximity either. There’s genuine venom here.


To offer the Cliffs Notes-version of the history lesson, USF and UCF were essentially the same, a pair of fledgling programs looking to shed the directional school moniker so badly that game notes ask media to refer to the schools by their initials, not Central Florida, nor South Florida, which is actually in the middle of the state. The Bulls were a little further along and got into the Big East, while the Knights toiled in lesser conferences hoping for their shot. USF, for obvious reasons, didn’t want that to happen. After dominating the first four games of a series that began in 2005, USF decided it was too good for such a rivalry and stopped scheduling a series now known as the “War on I-4.” It wasn’t until the schools ended up in the American following Big East restructuring that the controversy died down, but a rivalry between schools that already mocked one another picked up serious steam.


Fast forward to Friday afternoon, and you’ll see what both schools dreamed of once upon a time. Despite being the preseason favorite in the conference and the team most expected would be the one attempting to crash a New Year’s Day bowl, USF comes into Orlando’s Spectrum Stadium with a loss, looking to hang a defeat on unbeaten UCF, which is ranked 15th in the latest college football playoff rankings. While being placed so low is laughable and an indictment on the selection committee’s judgment, the Knights can still end up playing on Jan. 1 if they wrap up the East Division by defeating the Bulls, gaining entry into the American Athletic Conference title game against West champ Memphis.


This game is on ABC, a rare network appearance for both, and pits two prolific quarterbacks in UCF sophomore McKenzie Milton and USF senior Quinton Flowers. Milton is from Hawai’I and Flowers from Liberty City, but as far as productivity is concerned, they’re basically the same guy. Milton is more accurate, but both can tuck it and run, adding an extra dimension to two of college football’s most explosive offenses. The Knights are averaging 48 points per game while the Bulls come in a shade under 38. Although weather in Orlando is expected to be cloudy, rain should stay away from what is expected to be a shootout. Nearly a decade after attempting to keep the Knights from reaching a goal of joining a power conference, South Florida will look to deny them a division title and take whatever spoils winning an American Championship may yield. There are a couple of other rivalry games being played Friday that are far more established. None will come close to packing the emotion expected in this one.


2. Miami at Pittsburgh, 12 p.m. ET: The Hurricanes found out last week that not being ready to play could prove costly, so there’s no excuse for falling behind early as they hit the road to play the Panthers in a game that could have major national implications if there’s an upset. Although the ‘Canes would still be able to play their way into a national playoff against Clemson in the ACC title game, they’re looking to go into that game undefeated if for no other reason than to give themselves an extra out if they lose a heartbreaker. Currently No. 2 ahead of the Tigers in the latest CFP rankings, the ‘Canes will look to stay there with an impressive performance at Heinz Field.


The Panthers have already lost seven games and have no hope of making a bowl game, which means this opportunity to play spoiler will serve as the final chance to make something of this season. That alone makes Pitt dangerous. Pat Narduzzi’s team has suffered lopsided losses at Penn State and home against Oklahoma State and N.C. State, so they’ve tested themselves. Pitt had Virginia Tech on the ropes last week, losing just 20-14 in Blacksburg to see all hopes of reaching a bowl evaporate. Instead, they enter Senior Day looking to go out on a high note by pulling a shocker as a 12-point underdog. This Miami team becomes the highest-ranked to play at Pitt since a No. 1-ranked version of the ‘Canes visited in 2001, leaving with a 43-21 win en route to their most recent national championship. Pitt will aim to control possession by running the ball with Darrin Hall, a junior who has three 100-yard games over his past four outings. Being effective on the ground would set up play-action and give the Panthers a realistic opportunity to pull off the upset. Freshman Kenny Pickett, who was inserted last week, might get the start over sophomore Ben DiNucci. Regardless of who starts, avoiding Miami’s gaudy turnover chain will be the goal.


3. Cal at UCLA, 10:30 p.m. ET: Do the Bruins want to continue playing this season? We’re going to find out here at the Rose Bowl in this winner-take-all showdown between teams looking to get to .500 to secure a bowl berth. Cal, led by first-year head coach Justin Wilcox, is looking for what would be only their second bid over the past five seasons, having gone 8-5 in 2015. Last year’s 5-7 record cost Sonny Dykes his job, and although Wilcox has upgraded the defense, the same fate awaits the Bears if they can’t secure this win.


Jim Mora, Jr. was already relieved of his duties following last week’s tight loss to USC, coming up short of an upset bid to close out a tenure that started promisingly but ended with a thud. Offensive coordinator Jedd Fisch will take over on an interim basis in a situation where he’ll call plays and let Tom Bradley run the defense. Speculation over whether Chip Kelly will surface in L.A. instead of the University of Florida will hang over this one, but as far as the players are concerned, we’re about to find out how engaged they are to keep playing. Junior Josh Rosen isn’t likely to return, having cemented his status as one of the top passers set to be available in the upcoming NFL draft with last week’s impressive performance against the Trojans, outplaying Sam Darnold in the process.


The Bears were a lot sharper on the defensive end before standout linebacker Devante Downs was lost to a season-ending leg injury in October. Fellow linebacker Cameron Goode and DE Zeandae Johnson and are questionable, while key pass rusher Cameron Saffle was lost earlier this season. Despite the attrition, the Bears lost only 17-14 at Stanford last week, dropping a game for the sixth time in eight outings. Cal beat UCLA at home last season 36-10, but the visitor is on a 2-15 in this series.


4. Texas Tech at Texas, 8 p.m. ET: The Longhorns have qualified for a bowl in Tom Herman’s first season, snapping a two-year drought. After going 5-7 last year and missing out, the Red Raiders will be looking to pull off a home upset and secure an opportunity to go bowling for the first time since ’15 and the third time in five years under Kliff Kingsbury.


Say what you will about this year’s Longhorns, but they’re looking for their first three-game winning streak under Herman. After losing the season opener in incredibly disappointing fashion by losing to Maryland at home, the argument can be made that outside of last week’s win in Morgantown over West Virginia, Texas has found a way to lose every “big” game they’ve played despite giving itself opportunities. Texas lost by 3 at USC. They dropped the “Red River Rivalry” game against Oklahoma 29-24. They lost at home to Oklahoma State the next week by a field goal. They were handled at TCU to open the month. This is an opportunity to demonstrate that they’ve turned the page under Herman, who was viewed as a savior upon coming over from Houston.


Kingsbury’s Red Raiders opened 4-1 (4-0-1 ATS), which included an upset win at Houston. They’re 1-5 since and registered their last home win on Sept. 16, suggesting they’ll be quite comfortable on the road since the advantage of playing in Lubbock has done little for them. Nic Shimonek has done a solid job taking over for NFL first-round pick Pat Mahomes II, but his stint comes down to this. He’s got a shot to finish in the top-five nationally in passing yards per game and has been among the country’s top passers on deep balls, so the expectation is that the Red Raiders will take their shots here. Tech won in its last trip to Austin, 48-45, prevailing in a similar situation where it needed a win to gain bowl eligibility.


5. Virginia Tech at Virginia, 8 p.m. ET: The Cavaliers have already secured their first bowl berth since 2011, only their second since 2007, so they’re playing with house money as they continue a run through some of the ACC’s top teams, having come up short at Louisville and Miami following a 40-36 home upset of Georgia Tech to start the month. Bronco Mendenhall went just 2-10 in his first season, but has gotten the most out of a veteran secondary to key the defense and seen senior QB Kurt Benkert turn the corner to put himself on the NFL’s radar. It’s for all these reasons that there’s optimism in Charlottesville that this will finally be the year that a 13-season run of Hokies wins in this series might finally come to an end.


Justin Fuente fit right in last season, capturing 10 victories after a Belk Bowl win over Arkansas and rolling over the Cavs 52-10 in Blacksburg. He’s gotten the most out of freshman Josh Jackson, but barely got past Pitt last week on Senior Day and carries major injury concerns into this one since key defensive lineman Vinny Mihota has been lost to a knee injury and safety Terrell Edmunds Is out with a shoulder issue. Left tackle Yosuah Nijman is battling a leg issue that has sidelined him for most of the month, kicker Joey Slye has a hamstring injury and corners Adonis Alexander and Mook Reynolds are also questionable. Despite both teams coming in bowl eligible, the rivalry implications ensure that both teams will be engaged.


6. Iowa at Nebraska, 4 p.m. ET: This one is about piling on. The Huskers are set to finish under .500 for the first time since 2007 and are moving on from Mike Riley, having already been spurned by Chip Kelly. The annual rivalry game against the Hawkeyes has produced losses in three of the last four years, including a 40-10 result last season that served as an ominous preview of the struggles that lay ahead. Nebraska is 22-7 in season finales but are in danger of dropping three straight as a home underdog at Memorial Stadium.


The Huskers covered at Penn State last week despite never really having a realistic chance to win, falling 56-44 after Tulane transfer QB Tanner Lee got rolling. He’ll test a Hawkeyes secondary that has surrendered big plays in back-to-back losses to Wisconsin and Purdue following a 55-24 win over Ohio State to open the month that secured bowl eligibility. DB Amani Hooker, whose pick-six against Buckeyes QB J.T. Barrett kicked off that surprising rout, is questionable here with a knee injury.


Others: Western Michigan at Toledo, Navy at Houston, Baylor at TCU, NIU at Central Michigan, Missouri at Arkansas, Ohio U. at Buffalo, Western Kentucky at FIU, New Mexico at San Diego State.

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF

Friday, November 24

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NCAAF Game of the Day: South Florida at Central Florida betting preview and odds
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South Florida Bulls at Central Florida Knights (-10, 62.5)


The annual War on I-4 has never been more important as undefeated Central Florida hosts South Florida on Friday afternoon with a spot in the American Athletic Conference Championship on the line. The 12th-ranked Knights have rolled along while scoring at least 31 points in all 10 victories while USF dropped one contest to Houston, but its senior-laden lineup is primed to reach their first conference title game.


“We’ve really been waiting for this game since last year,” UCF junior receiver Tre’Quan Smith told reporters of last season’s 48-31 loss - the second straight in the series. “We all remember what happened last year and basically, it’s like payback. We’re ready to go to war.” The Knights are led by sophomore quarterback McKenzie Milton, who has thrown for almost 3,000 yards and 26 touchdowns while completing 69.6 percent of his passes for the nation’s top scoring offense (48.2). Senior quarterback Quinton Flowers keys the South Florida offense with 17 scoring strikes and nine touchdowns on the ground with a team-high 870 rushing yards while the Bulls are tied for second in the nation with 17 interceptions. “We have not put together a complete game yet,” USF coach Charlie Strong told reporters. “It’s maybe one half on offense and then the next half the defense steps up. … In all three phases, we have yet to see a complete game and we need a complete game this game. That’s what it’s going to take - a total team effort.”


TV: 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC.

LINE HISTORY: Central Florida opened as 9-5-point home favorites and that pointspread was bumped slightly by the books to the key number of -10. The total hit betting boards at 63.5 and was dropped a point to 62.5.

INJURY REPORT:


South Florida - RB T. Sands (Questionable, Undisclosed), DE V. Jackson (Questionable, Suspension), WR D. Antoine (Questionable, Ankle), WR K. Dingle (Questionable, Personal), WR R. Bronson (Out For Season, Shoulder).


Central Florida - RB J. Hamilton (Out For Season, Leg), LB D. Bacote (Out Indefinitely, Leg).

WEATHER REPORT:


63 degrees at gametime with winds 9mph wind and a 3% chance of precipitation

ABOUT SOUTH FLORIDA (9-1 SU, 4-6 ATS, 3-7 O/U): Flowers has been the most prolific offensive player in school history and rushed for at least 119 yards in three of his last four games, but completed 53.5 percent of passes during his senior season thus far. The Bulls have plenty of offensive weapons to support Flowers with senior running backs Darius Tice (860 yards, 10 TDs rushing) and D’Ernest Johnson (715, seven) along with senior receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling (48 catches, 737 yards). USF will need a big effort from its inconsistent defense, which is led by senior linebacker Auggie Sanchez (school-record 378 career tackles) and has allowed 19.9 points per contest.

ABOUT CENTRAL FLORIDA (10-0 SU, 6-3-1 ATS, 6-4 O/U): Milton, who threw for 225 yards with two interceptions against USF last year, has not been picked off while tossing six touchdown strikes in the last two contests. Smith is the top target for Milton with 44 catches for 850 yards and 11 scores, and sophomore running back Adrian Killins Jr. is a key home run threat with 629 yards along with eight touchdowns on the ground. “(Killins) might not fit a lot of schemes but he definitely fits ours,” UCF coach Scott Frost told reporters as his team goes for its first AAC title game appearance. “He’s not the biggest guy in the world but he’s got elite speed, and we knew we could use that in our system.”

TRENDS:


* Bulls are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games.
* Knights are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
* Over is 10-2 in Bulls last 12 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 8-2 in Knights last 10 Friday games.
* Bulls are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings.

CONSENSUS: 57 percent of contest players like South Florida to cover as road underdogs and 61 percent of wagers are on the Over.

 

[CNOTES]

Friday, November 24

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BAYLOR (1 - 10) at TCU (9 - 2) - 11/24/2017, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BAYLOR is 34-55 ATS (-26.5 Units) in November games since 1992.
BAYLOR is 33-53 ATS (-25.3 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
TCU is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
TCU is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
TCU is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TCU is 2-0 against the spread versus BAYLOR over the last 3 seasons
TCU is 2-0 straight up against BAYLOR over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

W MICHIGAN (6 - 5) at TOLEDO (9 - 2) - 11/24/2017, 11:30 AM
Top Trends for this game.
TOLEDO is 82-56 ATS (+20.4 Units) as a favorite since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
W MICHIGAN is 2-0 against the spread versus TOLEDO over the last 3 seasons
W MICHIGAN is 2-0 straight up against TOLEDO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

VIRGINIA TECH (8 - 3) at VIRGINIA (6 - 5) - 11/24/2017, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
VIRGINIA TECH is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
VIRGINIA is 1-1 against the spread versus VIRGINIA TECH over the last 3 seasons
VIRGINIA TECH is 2-0 straight up against VIRGINIA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

N ILLINOIS (8 - 3) at C MICHIGAN (7 - 4) - 11/24/2017, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
N ILLINOIS is 72-43 ATS (+24.7 Units) in road games since 1992.
N ILLINOIS is 72-43 ATS (+24.7 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
N ILLINOIS is 22-8 ATS (+13.2 Units) in road games in November games since 1992.
N ILLINOIS is 21-7 ATS (+13.3 Units) in road games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
C MICHIGAN is 2-0 against the spread versus N ILLINOIS over the last 3 seasons
C MICHIGAN is 2-0 straight up against N ILLINOIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OHIO U (8 - 3) at BUFFALO (5 - 6) - 11/24/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OHIO U is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) in road games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
OHIO U is 25-13 ATS (+10.7 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
OHIO U is 25-13 ATS (+10.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
OHIO U is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in games played on turf this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 1-1 against the spread versus OHIO U over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 1-1 straight up against OHIO U over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MISSOURI (6 - 5) at ARKANSAS (4 - 7) - 11/24/2017, 2:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MISSOURI is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
ARKANSAS is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARKANSAS is 1-1 against the spread versus MISSOURI over the last 3 seasons
ARKANSAS is 1-1 straight up against MISSOURI over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEW MEXICO (3 - 8) at SAN DIEGO ST (9 - 2) - 11/24/2017, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO ST is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
SAN DIEGO ST is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
SAN DIEGO ST is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons.
SAN DIEGO ST is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NAVY (6 - 4) at HOUSTON (6 - 4) - 11/24/2017, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NAVY is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
NAVY is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NAVY is 94-56 ATS (+32.4 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
NAVY is 81-40 ATS (+37.0 Units) in road games since 1992.
NAVY is 81-40 ATS (+37.0 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
NAVY is 45-24 ATS (+18.6 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NAVY is 106-70 ATS (+29.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
NAVY is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
NAVY is 45-27 ATS (+15.3 Units) in November games since 1992.
NAVY is 44-26 ATS (+15.4 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
HOUSTON is 33-55 ATS (-27.5 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 1-1 against the spread versus NAVY over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 1-1 straight up against NAVY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MIAMI (10 - 0) at PITTSBURGH (4 - 7) - 11/24/2017, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) as a road favorite of 10.5 to 14 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 2-0 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 2-0 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

IOWA (6 - 5) at NEBRASKA (4 - 7) - 11/24/2017, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEBRASKA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games this season.
NEBRASKA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home lined games this season.
NEBRASKA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games in games played on turf this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
IOWA is 2-0 against the spread versus NEBRASKA over the last 3 seasons
IOWA is 2-0 straight up against NEBRASKA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TEXAS ST (2 - 9) at TROY (8 - 2) - 11/24/2017, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TROY is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
TROY is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
TROY is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
TROY is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after a bye week over the last 3 seasons.
TROY is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
TROY is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TROY is 1-0 against the spread versus TEXAS ST over the last 3 seasons
TROY is 1-0 straight up against TEXAS ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

S FLORIDA (9 - 1) at UCF (10 - 0) - 11/24/2017, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
S FLORIDA is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
S FLORIDA is 2-0 against the spread versus UCF over the last 3 seasons
S FLORIDA is 2-0 straight up against UCF over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

W KENTUCKY (6 - 5) at FLA INTERNATIONAL (6 - 4) - 11/24/2017, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
FLA INTERNATIONAL is 1-1 against the spread versus W KENTUCKY over the last 3 seasons
W KENTUCKY is 2-0 straight up against FLA INTERNATIONAL over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TEXAS TECH (5 - 6) at TEXAS (6 - 5) - 11/24/2017, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TEXAS TECH is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TEXAS is 1-1 against the spread versus TEXAS TECH over the last 3 seasons
TEXAS is 1-1 straight up against TEXAS TECH over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CALIFORNIA (5 - 6) at UCLA (5 - 6) - 11/24/2017, 10:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CALIFORNIA is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
CALIFORNIA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games off a loss against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
UCLA is 20-38 ATS (-21.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
UCLA is 1-1 against the spread versus CALIFORNIA over the last 3 seasons
UCLA is 1-1 straight up against CALIFORNIA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[CNOTES]

Friday, November 24

WESTERN MICHIGAN @ TOLEDO
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Western Michigan's last 5 games when playing on the road against Toledo
Western Michigan is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Toledo
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toledo's last 5 games when playing at home against Western Michigan
Toledo is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

MIAMI-FL @ PITTSBURGH
Miami-FL is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Miami-FL is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games when playing at home against Miami-FL

BAYLOR @ TEXAS CHRISTIAN
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baylor's last 6 games when playing Texas Christian
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baylor's last 5 games
Texas Christian is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Texas Christian is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Baylor

NAVY @ HOUSTON
Navy is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Navy's last 5 games on the road
Houston is 20-3 SU in its last 23 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Houston's last 11 games

NORTHERN ILLINOIS @ CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Northern Illinois is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Northern Illinois's last 5 games
Central Michigan is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Central Michigan is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

OHIO @ BUFFALO
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Ohio's last 6 games on the road
Ohio is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Buffalo is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Buffalo is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Ohio

MISSOURI @ ARKANSAS
Missouri is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Missouri is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arkansas's last 5 games when playing Missouri
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Arkansas's last 9 games

SOUTH FLORIDA @ CENTRAL FLORIDA
South Florida is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
South Florida is 14-1 SU in its last 15 games
Central Florida is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Central Florida is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

NEW MEXICO @ SAN DIEGO STATE
New Mexico is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against San Diego State
New Mexico is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games when playing San Diego State
San Diego State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing New Mexico
San Diego State is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games

IOWA @ NEBRASKA
Iowa is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Nebraska
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Iowa's last 9 games
Nebraska is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Nebraska's last 6 games

TEXAS STATE @ TROY
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Texas State's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Texas State's last 17 games
Troy is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
Troy is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

WESTERN KENTUCKY @ FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Western Kentucky's last 6 games
Western Kentucky is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Florida International
Florida International is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Florida International's last 7 games

VIRGINIA TECH @ VIRGINIA
Virginia Tech is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Virginia
Virginia Tech is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Virginia
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Virginia's last 7 games when playing Virginia Tech
Virginia is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games

TEXAS TECH @ TEXAS
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Texas Tech's last 5 games when playing Texas
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Texas Tech's last 5 games
Texas is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Texas Tech
Texas is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Texas Tech

CALIFORNIA @ CALIFORNIA-LOS ANGELES
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of California's last 7 games when playing California-Los Angeles
California is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
California-Los Angeles is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
California-Los Angeles is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against California

 

[CNOTES]

NCAAF
Dunkel


Week 13


Friday, November 24

Baylor @ TCU


Game 115-116
November 24, 2017 @ 12:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Baylor
82.883
TCU
109.729
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
TCU
by 27
50
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
TCU
by 24 1/2
51
Dunkel Pick:
TCU
(-24 1/2); Under


Western Michigan @ Toledo


Game 117-118
November 24, 2017 @ 11:30 am


Dunkel Rating:
Western Michigan
76.578
Toledo
95.520
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Toledo
by 19
70
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Toledo
by 13 1/2
62 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Toledo
(-13 1/2); Over


Virginia Tech @ Virginia


Game 119-120
November 24, 2017 @ 8:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Virginia Tech
92.804
Virginia
94.728
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Virginia
by 2
40
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Virginia Tech
by 7 1/2
50
Dunkel Pick:
Virginia
(+7 1/2); Under


Northern Illinois @ Central Michigan


Game 121-122
November 24, 2017 @ 12:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Northern Illinois
85.604
Central Michigan
85.251
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Central Michigan
Even
58
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Northern Illinois
by 3
53
Dunkel Pick:
Central Michigan
(+3); Over


Ohio @ Buffalo


Game 123-124
November 24, 2017 @ 1:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Ohio
83.540
Buffalo
75.608
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Ohio
by 8
59
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Ohio
by 5
60 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Ohio
(-5); Under


Missouri @ Arkansas


Game 125-126
November 24, 2017 @ 2:30 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Missouri
98.327
Arkansas
82.619
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Missouri
by 15 1/2
66
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Missouri
by 8 1/2
70
Dunkel Pick:
Missouri
(-8 1/2); Under


New Mexico @ San Diego St


Game 127-128
November 24, 2017 @ 3:30 pm


Dunkel Rating:
New Mexico
71.728
San Diego St
89.287
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Diego St
by 17 1/2
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Diego St
by 20 1/2
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New Mexico
(+20 1/2); Over


Navy @ Houston


Game 129-130
November 24, 2017 @ 12:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Navy
86.793
Houston
88.691
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 2
59
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 4 1/2
54 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Navy
(+4 1/2); Over


Miami-FL @ Pittsburgh


Game 131-132
November 24, 2017 @ 12:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Miami-FL
103.307
Pittsburgh
98.067
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Miami-FL
by 6
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Miami-FL
by 13 1/2
52
Dunkel Pick:
Pittsburgh
(+13 1/2); Over


Iowa @ Nebraska


Game 133-134
November 24, 2017 @ 4:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Iowa
91.482
Nebraska
89.555
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Iowa
by 2
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Iowa
by 4
52
Dunkel Pick:
Nebraska
(+4); Under


Texas State @ Troy


Game 135-136
November 24, 2017 @ 4:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Texas State
56.789
Troy
88.248
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Troy
by 31 1/2
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Troy
by 24 1/2
49 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Troy
(-24 1/2); Under


South Florida @ Central Florida


Game 137-138
November 24, 2017 @ 3:30 pm


Dunkel Rating:
South Florida
87.910
Central Florida
101.242
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Central Florida
by 13 1/2
69
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Central Florida
by 9 1/2
62
Dunkel Pick:
Central Florida
(-9 1/2); Over


Western Kentucky @ FIU


Game 139-140
November 24, 2017 @ 7:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Western Kentucky
75.844
FIU
71.399
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Western Kentucky
by 4 1/2
59
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Western Kentucky
by 2 1/2
55
Dunkel Pick:
Western Kentucky
(-2 1/2); Over


Texas Tech @ Texas


Game 141-142
November 24, 2017 @ 8:00 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Texas Tech
89.132
Texas
103.535
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Texas
by 14 1/2
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Texas
by 9
56 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Texas
(-9); Under


California @ UCLA


Game 143-144
November 24, 2017 @ 10:30 pm


Dunkel Rating:
California
91.386
UCLA
93.780
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
UCLA
by 2 1/2
62
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
UCLA
by 7 1/2
64
Dunkel Pick:
California
(+7 1/2); Under

 

[CNOTES]

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 24
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


WMU at TOL 11:30 AM
O 61.0


MIA at PITT 12:00 PM
MIA -11.0


NAVY at HOU 12:00 PM
HOU -6.5


BAY at TCU 12:00 PM
BAY +24.0
O 52.0


NIU at CMU 12:00 PM
CMU +3.0


OHIO at BUFF 01:00 PM
BUFF +6.5
U 55.5


MIZZ at ARK 02:30 PM
MIZZ -8.0 SEC PLAY OF THE MONTH
U 69.0


USF at UCF 03:30 PM
UCF -9.5 CFB PLAY OF THE YEAR
O 63.0


UNM at SDSU 03:30 PM
SDSU -20.5


IOWA at NEB 04:00 PM
IOWA -4.5


TXST at TROY 04:00 PM
O 51.5

 

[CNOTES]

WKU at FIU 07:00 PM
FIU +3.0
O 57.5


TTU at TEX 08:00 PM
TEX -7.5
U 58.5


VT at UVA 08:00 PM
UVA +6.5
O 48.5


CAL at UCLA 10:30 PM
CAL +7.0
O 66.0

 

[cloverleaf]

Mr. C doesn't get the credit he deserves for the great information he provides for this forum.

Just guessing....he doesn't get paid a dime for helping all of us make the best decisions on
games we play.

Anyone ever heard this guy promote himself just once???

Thanks Mr. C...............................

 

[CNOTES]

Thanks Cloverleaf..................nope haven't seen a dime........but i do make some dimes on some lucky days........lol
Thanks for the kind words......I do what i can to help myself and others.........hope the information i post here doesn't go to waste........

Good Luck Clover and other players............w-thumbs!^

 

[CNOTES]

Top 25 roundup: Pittsburgh stuns No. 2 Miami
November 24, 2017


PITTSBURGH -- The No. 2 Miami Hurricanes had a habit all year of falling behind in games they were favored to win.


It finally caught up to them on Friday as the Pittsburgh Panthers, led by true freshman quarterback Kenny Pickett, who ran for two touchdowns and threw for another score, got out to quick start and held on for a 24-14 upset victory at Heinz Field on Friday.


The Hurricanes (10-1, 7-1 ACC) would still be a strong contender for a berth in the College Football Playoff if they beat Clemson in the Atlantic Coast Conference championship game next week.


This time, there was no comeback in the cards thanks to a strong performance from the Pitt defense. The Panthers (5-7, 3-5) batted down 10 passes, had three sacks and allowed just 2.1 yards per carry on the ground.


Miami starter Malik Rosier was mostly ineffective despite a line of 15 of 34 for 187 yards and two touchdowns. He was briefly pulled in the fourth quarter in favor of redshirt sophomore Evan Shirreffs, who fared no better.


Pickett made his first career start and provided offense both on the ground and through the air. Pickett went 18 of 29 for 193 yards passing, including a 4-yard touchdown on a shovel pass to Qadree Ollison to give Pitt a 10-point lead in the second half.


With a 10-point lead in the fourth quarter, Pitt took the ball at its own 10-yard line and ran 12 plays and took 6:10 off the clock, with Pickett capping the drive with a 22-yard score on a fourth down.

No. 12 TCU 45, Baylor 22


FORT WORTH, Texas -- Kenny Hill accounted for four touchdowns and TCU locked up a berth in the Big 12 Championship Game.


The Horned Frogs (10-2, 7-2 Big 12) set up a rematch with No. 4 Oklahoma on Dec. 2 at AT&T Stadium in nearby Arlington. The Sooners beat TCU 38-20 on Nov. 11.


Hill, back after missing one game with concussion-like systems, completed 26 of 36 passes for 325 yards and three touchdowns. He added another score rushing.


True freshman quarterback Charlie Brewer did his best to keep Baylor (1-11, 1-8) close by throwing for 301 yards and two touchdowns, and running for another 49 yards.

No. 15 Central Florida 49, South Florida 42


Mike Hughes returned a kickoff 60 yards for the winning touchdown with 1:28 to play, and Central Florida locked up a berth in the American Athletic Conference championship game with a thrilling win at Spectrum Stadium in Orlando, Fla.


The Knights (11-0, 8-0 AAC) will host Memphis next week in the conference title game.


UCF quarterback McKenzie Milton threw four touchdowns passes and rushed for a pair of touchdowns, helping UCF overcome a huge performance from South Florida quarterback Quinton Flowers.


Flowers had 605 total yards and five touchdowns for USF. He threw an 83-yard touchdown pass to Darnel Salomon and then converted a two-point conversion to tie the score, 42-42, with 1:41 to play.


Tyre McCants had a career day with 227 receiving yards on nine receptions for USF (9-2, 6-2).


No. 25 Virginia Tech 10, Virginia 0


CHARLOTTESVILLE, Va. - The Hokies beat the rival Cavaliers for 14th straight time.


The Hokies churned out 202 hard-earned yards on the ground, led by Deshawn McClease (71 yards) and Steven Peoples (71), who returned after missing five of the last six games because of an assortment of injuries.


Virginia Tech (9-3) scored the game's only touchdown on an 8-yard pass from Josh Jackson to Chis Cunningham in the third quarter. It was Jackson's 19th touchdown pass of the season. Virginia is 6-6.

 

[CNOTES]

Saturday's Best Bets
November 24, 2017


Saturday College Football Best Bets


We've reached the final week of the regular season for the majority of the college football teams throughout the country, and rivalry week means we've got some huge games across the board. Spots in the CFB playoff are up for grabs while others try to simply become Bowl eligible or improve their Bowl standing, but with a lot of big rivalry games for the big name programs on tap, it's those games that are going to get the bulk of the focus.


Ohio State/Michigan, Washington/Washington State, Notre Dame/Stanford, and Alabama/Auburn are arguably the biggest games on this week's board, and with some of those teams already locked into their respective Conference Championship games a week from now, slipping up now could potentially kill the playoff hopes for some. But situations like this also bring quality betting angles for some of these games as there are teams that could get caught looking ahead to those big showdowns etc, so let's get right to the games I believe you should target as plays for your betting card.


Best Bet #1: Georgia Tech +11


The Yellow Jackets have really stumbled down the stretch with a 2-4 SU record over their previous six games, meaning that at 5-5 SU, this week's contest against the #7 team in the country is their last chance to make a Bowl game. Obviously it won't be easy as this Georgia Tech team still laments failed opportunities @ Duke and @ Virginia recently when they were basically a touchdown road favorite in both games, but the Yellow Jackets and their triple-option attack were able to upend the Bulldogs last year (28-27), and doing it again this year would not only have Georgia Tech Bowl-bound, but Georgia's playoff hopes would be all but squashed.


The fact is, this is a really tough spot for Georgia here as there is no doubt they've already got one eye looking ahead to their SEC Championship game against either Auburn or Alabama next week. Winning that game is the most direct route Georgia has to being the in CFB Playoff, and if it ends up being Auburn you know the Bulldogs would love to get another crack at that team.


But not only are the Bulldogs probably looking past Georgia Tech this week, the fact that they've got to deal with Tech's triple-option attack makes this week's task all the more difficult. For a few weeks now the coaching staff has probably been implementing little things here and there for the SEC Championship game, and now in the matter of a week the entire team has to flip their thinking to stop the triple-option. The Bulldogs are already a team opponents can run on if that's their MO, just ask Notre Dame and Auburn, but with the intricacies of the triple-option, a desperate Tech team looking for their 6th win on the year, and Georgia having at least one eye on next week, I don't know how you can't be looking to fade the Bulldogs as a double-digit road favorite.


With Georgia's last two trips to Georgia Tech being decided by 7 points or less and two OT games between these two in the past four years, this situation lines up much too well not to grab the points with the home underdog. With VegasInsider.com showing more than 70% of the ATS bets coming on the road team here, being in the minority on the Yellow Jackets doesn't hurt either.


Best Bet #2: Florida State/Florida Over 44


There is no denying that 2017 has been disastrous for both of these proud programs from the state of Florida, and with neither of them going Bowling this year, this is a rivalry that's lost all of it's appeal. But this is strictly a numbers and situation play.


Many believe these two teams will go through the motions and get this game over with as quick as possible – about 90% of the action on this total is on the 'under' – but two prideful programs like these two are going to want to put on somewhat of a show for the fans in attendance. Not to mention both have two very young QB's under center who need all the reps they can get to build for the future, so look for this game to be the shootout on Saturday that nobody expects. Don't be surprised to see both offenses take numerous risks throughout the game as they go out there with a carefree approach, and with both schools having a bit of rhythm on that side of the ball after putting up 77 and 36 points respectively a week ago against lesser competition, look for some of that offensive momentum to bleed over into this game. With nothing really left to play for but pride, we should easily get both teams scoring 24+ in this game.

Other Best Bets to consider:


Since it is the final week of the regular season and there are some huge games elsewhere, I thought I'd give you all a few more home underdogs to consider in spots where they are either in a really good spot to back, or, and quite possibly more importantly, their opponents are in really good spots to fade with the lookahead potential they all have.


Minnesota +17 – the pressure to run the table gets bigger with each passing week for Wisconsin and they know they'll need to win the Big 10 Championship next week to make the CFB Playoff. Minnesota is 5-6 SU and playing for a Bowl bid, and while they probably won't win this game outright, getting 17 points at home is too good to pass up.


Auburn +4.5 – no potential lookaheads here with the magnitude of this Iron Bowl matchup, but Auburn is at home and can win the SEC West with an outright win. Accomplishing that while spoiling the hated Crimson Tide's playoff hopes at the same time is a huge motivating factor, and having already smoked Georgia this year, Auburn has to like their chances in the SEC Championship if they get there as they could end up being playoff bound themselves.


South Carolina +13.5 – Fading a Clemson team as road favorites of this number isn't a bad idea with their showdown against Miami in the ACC Championship on tap, especially when you consider that it is currently #2 vs #3 in that game and the loser will have their playoff hopes dashed. The Tigers can't help but look ahead to that huge showdown.